Discover how surging whey prices are boosting Class III dairy values and shaking up the market. What’s driving this change and what does it mean for the industry?
After dropping to a low of 36 cents on April 12 and 15, the whey powder market has shown significant recovery. The CME spot dry whey price has surged to 48 cents per pound, marking the highest price since late February.
“Domestic demand for high-protein whey products has given a sizable boost to dairy protein values, and processors have directed much of the whey stream into high-protein concentrates,” said Sarina Sharp, analyst with the Daily Dairy Report.
According to USDA data, production of whey protein concentrate (WPC), which contains 50% to 89.9% protein, reached an all-time high in 2023. In the first four months of this year, output for both WPC with 50% to 89.9% protein and whey protein isolates (WPI), which contain at least 90% protein, increased by 9.7% and 9.6%, respectively, compared to the same period in 2022.
WPC and WPI are utilized as ingredients in:
Infant formula
Sports drinks
Nutrition shakes
These products are high in protein. In comparison, lower-protein whey powder is often used in animal feed or in human food products, such as baked goods, chocolate and other candies, fortified dairy products, ice cream, infant formula, and clinical nutrition products.
“Increasing output of WPC and WPI, however, has not been enough to push whey powder production below early-2023’s already depressed volumes,” Sharp said. “The combination of modestly higher output and slower exports pushed whey powder prices to six-month lows in mid-April.”
Whey powder production for the January through April period increased by 1.9% compared to the previous year. However, more recently, dry whey production has been slowing down.
“Plant downtime and the use of whey solids for higher protein concentrates has kept dry whey availability in check,” wrote USDA’s Dairy Market News in a recent report.
“Tighter whey powder inventories have propelled spot whey prices up an impressive 30%, or 11 cents, in less than two months,” Sharp noted. “While most of the drama in the Class III space has occurred in cheese markets, whey has played an important supporting role. Its two-month rally has boosted Class III values by 66 cents.”
Key Takeaways:
The whey powder market has rebounded, climbing to 48 cents per pound by late February from mid-April lows.
Domestic demand for high-protein whey products has substantially buoyed dairy protein values.
Whey protein concentrate (WPC) and whey protein isolates (WPI) production reached record highs in the first four months of 2023.
WPC and WPI are popular ingredients in high-protein products like infant formula and sports drinks, while lower-protein whey is used in animal feed and various food products.
Despite increased WPC and WPI output, overall whey powder production remains slightly higher than earlier 2023 levels due to slower exports.
Reduced dry whey production is due to plant downtime and diversion of whey solids to higher protein concentrates.
Tightened whey powder inventories have resulted in a 30% increase in spot whey prices over less than two months.
The rally in whey prices has contributed to a 66-cent boost in the Class III values.
Summary:
The whey powder market has seen a significant recovery after dropping to a low of 36 cents on April 12 and 15. The CME spot dry whey price has surged to 48 cents per pound, marking the highest price since late February. Domestic demand for high-protein whey products has given a significant boost to dairy protein values, and processors have directed much of the whey stream into high-protein concentrates. Production of whey protein concentrate (WPC) and whey protein isolates (WPI) reached an all-time high in 2023, with output increasing by 9.7% and 9.6% compared to the same period in 2022. WPC and WPI are used as ingredients in infant formula, sports drinks, and nutrition shakes. However, increasing output of WPC and WPI has not been enough to push whey powder production below early-2023’s already depressed volumes. Whey powder production for the January through April period increased by 1.9% compared to the previous year. Tighter whey powder inventories have propelled spot whey prices up an impressive 30%, or 11 cents, in less than two months.
Dive into April’s U.S. cheese production trends. Curious about the rise of Italian cheese and the decline of American cheese? Uncover the compelling data and regional details.
April presented a mixed landscape for U.S. cheese production, with both promising gains and notable declines. According to the USDA, total cheese output, excluding cottage cheese, reached 1.19 billion pounds, up 1.8% year-over-year but down 3% from March. Italian-type cheese production rose by 6.2% from last year to 504 million pounds, though it fell 2.8% from March. On the other hand, American cheese production declined by 4.7% year-over-year and 4.3% from March, totaling 468 million pounds.
“The mixed trends in U.S. cheese production signal both resilience and challenges within the industry,” the USDA report suggests.
Category
Production (Million Pounds)
Year-Over-Year Change
Month-Over-Month Change
Total Cheese (excluding cottage)
1,190
+1.8%
-3.0%
Italian-Type Cheese
504
+6.2%
-2.8%
American Cheese
468
-4.7%
-4.3%
Butter
208
+5.3%
-1.0%
Nonfat Dry Milk
173
-12.7%
—
Skim Milk Powder
36.3
-20.8%
—
Dry Whey
—
+2.1%
—
Lactose
—
-1.5%
—
Whey Protein Concentrate
—
-6.1%
—
Hard Ice Cream
64.7 million gallons
+7.3%
—
Mixed Signals in April U.S. Cheese Production Reflecting Varied Trends
According to the USDA data, total cheese output, excluding cottage cheese, reached 1.19 billion pounds in April. This marks a 1.8% increase compared to the same period last year but shows a 3% decrease from March. The production dynamics underscore a mixed trend in U.S. cheese production for the month, reflecting both year-over-year growth and month-over-month decline.
Italian Cheeses Shine Year-Over-Year Despite Monthly Dip
Italian-type cheese production showcased a remarkable upturn, reflecting a year-over-year surge of 6.2%, culminating at 504 million pounds. Despite this annual growth, the month-over-month comparison revealed a marginal dip of 2.8% from March. This duality underscores both the strong demand for Italian cheeses over the year and the seasonal or market-driven fluctuations that influence monthly production volumes.
American Cheese Production Faces Significant Challenges in April
Amid the intricate landscape of U.S. cheese production, American cheese has faced a particularly challenging month. Specifically, April witnessed a decline in American cheese output, both when compared year-over-year and month-over-month. Production fell by 4.7% from April last year, resulting in a total output of 468 million pounds. The month-over-month comparison is similarly bleak, with a 4.3% decrease from March, accentuating the downward trend in this particular cheese category. This dual decline highlights ongoing shifts within the industry, signaling potential adjustments in consumer demand and production focus.
Butter Production Sees Minor Monthly Dip Amidst Impressive Annual Growth
Butter production trends exhibited a complex pattern, reflecting the overarching variability in the dairy sector. While there was a minor decline of just over 1% in butter output compared to March, the sector demonstrated resilience with a notable 5.3% increase compared to the same period last year. This duality in trends is indicative of broader market dynamics and seasonal production adjustments. In total, April’s butter production reached 208 million pounds, underscoring both the short-term and long-term shifts in the dairy landscape.
Sharp Declines in Dry Dairy Products Highlight April’s Downturn
Dry dairy products presented a downward trend in April, with significant declines observed in both nonfat dry milk and skim milk powder production. Nonfat dry milk saw a steep reduction, recording a 12.7% drop to reach a total of 173 million pounds. Skim milk powder production experienced an even sharper decline of 20.8%, culminating in a total output of 36.3 million pounds compared to the same period last year.
Contrasting Fortunes Within Dry Dairy Production Reflect April’s Complex Landscape
Nevertheless, not all dry dairy products shared the same fate. Dry whey production, for instance, edged up by 2.1%, offering a glimmer of optimism amidst broader declines in the sector. Specifically, dry whey output reached notable levels, counteracting the overarching downtrend. Conversely, lactose production did not fare as well, registering a 1.5% decline. Even more striking was the significant 6.1% decrease in whey protein concentrate production. Collectively, these figures underscore the mixed results within the dry dairy product landscape, highlighting areas of both growth and notable declines.
Unprecedented Fluctuations in Frozen Dairy Production: Hard Ice Cream Surges While Other Categories Slide
Frozen dairy product output varied significantly in April, illustrating a mixture of trends within the industry. The production of hard ice cream notably climbed by an impressive 7.3%, reaching 64.7 million gallons. This increase stands in stark contrast to the declines observed in other frozen dairy categories. The production of low-fat ice cream, sherbet, and frozen yogurt all experienced downturns, highlighting the sector’s fluctuations and the diverse consumer preferences shaping production dynamics.
Regional Production Trends: Wisconsin’s Cheddar Supremacy and California’s Mozzarella Dominance
In examining regional production trends, the data reveals that Wisconsin continues to dominate the Cheddar cheese market, producing an impressive 60.38 million pounds in April. California follows, contributing 21.29 million pounds to the nation’s Cheddar cheese supply.
Turning attention to Mozzarella, California leads with a substantial output of 134.14 million pounds, while Wisconsin is not far behind, generating 93.13 million pounds. This makes California the unrivaled leader in Mozzarella production, though Wisconsin’s figures are commendable.
When looking at overall cheese production, Wisconsin emerges as the top-producing state with an aggregate output of 281.48 million pounds. California comes in second, followed closely by Idaho and New Mexico. These states collectively form the backbone of the U.S. cheese manufacturing industry, each playing a crucial role in meeting domestic and international demand.
The Bottom Line
April’s cheese production data from the USDA paints a complex picture of the dairy industry, characterized by both advancements and setbacks. Italian-type cheeses exhibited impressive year-over-year growth, driven by a notable 6.2% increase, even as they faced a slight month-over-month decrease. In stark contrast, American cheese suffered significant declines both annually and monthly, highlighting underlying production challenges.
The broader dairy landscape reflected similar dualities. Butter production experienced a modest monthly dip but demonstrated robust annual growth. The production of dry dairy products such as nonfat dry milk and skim milk powder saw sharp drops, whereas dry whey managed a slight increase.
Frozen dairy products also showed variability, with hard ice cream production surging, while other categories like low-fat ice cream and frozen yogurt declined. Regionally, Wisconsin and California continued to dominate specific cheese categories, underscoring their pivotal roles in national dairy production.
Overall, these intricate trends underscore the multifaceted nature of the U.S. dairy industry, highlighting areas of growth and the need for strategic adjustments in response to declining segments.
Key Takeaways:
Total cheese production in April saw a slight year-over-year increase of 1.8%, despite a 3% drop from March.
Italian-type cheese production rose by 6.2% year-over-year but decreased by 2.8% from the previous month.
American cheese production experienced declines both year-over-year and month-over-month, down by 4.7% and 4.3% respectively.
Butter production was up by 5.3% compared to April of last year, although it saw a minor decline from March.
Dry dairy products faced significant declines: nonfat dry milk dropped by 12.7% and skim milk powder by 20.8% year-over-year.
Dry whey production slightly increased by 2.1%, while lactose and whey protein concentrate production declined by 1.5% and 6.1% respectively.
Hard ice cream production surged by 7.3%, but low-fat ice cream, sherbet, and frozen yogurt production all decreased.
Wisconsin led in Cheddar cheese production, contributing 60.38 million pounds, whereas California was the top producer of Mozzarella with 134.14 million pounds.
Summary: In April, U.S. cheese production experienced a mixed landscape, with both positive and negative trends. The USDA reported a total cheese output of 1.19 billion pounds, up 1.8% year-over-year but down 3% from March. Italian-type cheese production rose by 6.2% to 504 million pounds, while American cheese production declined by 4.7% year-over-year and 4.3% from March, totaling 468 million pounds. This dual decline highlights ongoing shifts within the industry, signaling potential adjustments in consumer demand and production focus. Butter production saw a minor monthly dip, while dry dairy products showed a downward trend, with significant declines observed in nonfat dry milk and skim milk powder production. Dry whey production edged up by 2.1%, but lactose production and whey protein concentrate production also saw a decline. Frozen dairy product output varied significantly, with hard ice cream production climbing by 7.3% to reach 64.7 million gallons. Wisconsin continues to dominate the Cheddar cheese market, producing an impressive 60.38 million pounds in April.
To provide the best experiences, we use technologies like cookies to store and/or access device information. Consenting to these technologies will allow us to process data such as browsing behavior or unique IDs on this site. Not consenting or withdrawing consent, may adversely affect certain features and functions.
Functional
Always active
The technical storage or access is strictly necessary for the legitimate purpose of enabling the use of a specific service explicitly requested by the subscriber or user, or for the sole purpose of carrying out the transmission of a communication over an electronic communications network.
Preferences
The technical storage or access is necessary for the legitimate purpose of storing preferences that are not requested by the subscriber or user.
Statistics
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for statistical purposes.The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for anonymous statistical purposes. Without a subpoena, voluntary compliance on the part of your Internet Service Provider, or additional records from a third party, information stored or retrieved for this purpose alone cannot usually be used to identify you.
Marketing
The technical storage or access is required to create user profiles to send advertising, or to track the user on a website or across several websites for similar marketing purposes.
