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Dairy Market Forecast: Price Increases, Export Changes, and Tighter Milk Supplies for 2024-2025

Uncover the effects of reduced milk supplies and evolving export trends on dairy prices for 2024-2025. Are you ready to navigate the upcoming changes in the dairy market?

High angle view of most common dairy products shot on rustic wooden table. The composition includes milk, sour cream, butter, yogurt, eggs and cottage cheese. Predominant colors are white, yellow and brown. High resolution 42Mp studio digital capture taken with Sony A7rii and Sony FE 90mm f2.8 macro G OSS lens

The complexity of the dairy business, particularly in estimating milk output and price, is of utmost importance in 2024 and 2025. Slower milk per cow growth will influence supply, while local and foreign demand swings complicate the situation. The dairy business is at a crucial stage. Understanding these relationships is not just critical, but it also empowers stakeholders, ensuring they are well informed and prepared. Higher cow numbers, shifting commercial exports and imports, and price modifications for dairy products all contribute to the sector’s volatility. Anticipating market trends in the $1.1 trillion dairy sector helps business players manage problems and comprehend their impact on local economies and global food security.

As we navigate the complexities of the dairy market for 2024 and 2025, it’s essential to understand the interplay between milk production, export trends, and pricing dynamics. The data below provides an insightful overview of the projected changes and underlying factors. 

Challenging Assumptions: Higher Cow Numbers Don’t Guarantee Increased Milk Production 

YearPrevious Forecast (billion pounds)Revised Forecast (billion pounds)Change (%)
2024227.5225.8-0.75%
2025230.0228.2-0.78%

While more significant cow numbers may indicate improved milk output, updated predictions for 2024 and 2025 tell a different story. The key reason for these reduced estimates is slower milk increase per cow, which outweighs the benefits of a large cow inventory. Weather, feed quality, and genetic constraints all contribute to the slow rise in production. Adverse weather affects the quality of feed crops, which are critical for milk production, and genetic innovations face limits that prevent rapid productivity increases. Consequently, even with increased cow numbers, overall milk yield remains below expectations, necessitating a projection revision. It’s the responsibility of industry stakeholders to consider cow numbers and productivity to create accurate estimates and implement successful initiatives, fostering a proactive and responsible approach.

Unveiling the Dynamics of Commercial Dairy Exports: Navigating the Shifting Landscape for 2024 and 2025 

YearCommercial Exports (Fat Basis)Commercial Exports (Skim-Solids Basis)
2024RaisedLowered
2025ReducedReduced

Analyzing changes in commercial exports for 2024 and 2025 indicates a complicated dynamic caused by varied demand and production capacities across categories. Increased butter and cheese shipments in 2024 have boosted fat-based exports, indicating a solid foreign demand for higher-fat dairy products. In contrast, lower skim-solids base exports of nonfat dry milk (NDM) and lactose indicate a shift in the trade environment, which competitive price, nutritional demand adjustments, or trade policy changes might drive.

The forecast is more cautious until 2025. Fat-based and skim-solids-based exports are expected to drop. This might indicate rising internal use, pressure from global competitors, or severe rules limiting export potential. Navigating these obstacles while capitalizing on upcoming possibilities will be critical to the dairy industry’s balanced and sustainable development path.

The Shifting Tides of Dairy Imports: A Detailed Examination for 2024 and 2025

YearFat Basis ImportsSkim-Solids Basis Imports
2024RaisedLowered
2025UnchangedReduced

In 2024, dairy imports on a fat basis are predicted to climb, owing to rising demand for butter and butterfat products. This tendency is likely due to changes in consumer tastes or industry demands. However, imports are expected to fall on a skim-solids basis, reflecting a demand or sourcing strategy shift. In 2025, fat-based imports are expected to stay stable. Still, skim-solids imports are expected to fall, potentially owing to increasing local production or decreasing demand for commodities such as nonfat dry milk and lactose. These import patterns indicate the market factors that affect the dairy industry.

Projected Price Elevations in Dairy Commodities: Implications for 2024 and 2025

YearCheese ($/lb)Butter ($/lb)NDM ($/lb)Whey ($/lb)Class III ($/cwt)Class IV ($/cwt)All Milk ($/cwt)
20242.102.501.450.6020.5019.7522.25
20252.152.551.500.6220.7520.0022.50

Recent steady pricing and tighter milk supply will drive higher dairy product prices in 2024 and 2025. Cheese, butter, nonfat dry milk (NDM), and whey prices are likely to rise compared to prior projections. Cheese prices are expected to climb dramatically by 2024, with butter following suit due to high demand and limited availability. NDM, a key ingredient in dairy products, is expected to rise in price, increasing whey pricing. The trend will continue until 2025, fueled by persistently restricted milk supply and high market prices. As a result, Class III and Class IV milk prices will rise, bringing the overall milk price prediction to $22.25 per cwt in 2024 and $22.50 per cwt in 2025. This increase highlights the influence of limited supply and strong demand on dairy prices, demonstrating the complexities of market dynamics.

Decoding the Surge: Understanding the Upward Forecasts for Class III and Class IV Milk Prices in 2024 and 2025

YearClass III Milk Price ($/cwt)Class IV Milk Price ($/cwt)
202419.8518.00
202520.2518.50

The increased predictions for Class III and Class IV milk prices in 2024 and 2025 are due to higher costs for essential dairy products such as cheese, butter, nonfat dry milk (NDM), and whey. Class III milk is used in cheese manufacturing, leading to higher pricing due to limited supply and high demand. Similarly, Class IV milk, which is used in butter and dry milk products, reflects growing market pricing for these commodities. Higher product prices directly impact milk price estimates since they are used in industry pricing calculations. With a tight milk supply, robust dairy product prices support these increases in Class III and IV milk price estimates.

All Milk Prices Poised for Significant Rise: Charting a New Trajectory for Dairy Market Stability 

The higher adjustment of the milk price projection to $22.25 per cwt in 2024 and $22.50 per cwt in 2025 indicates a substantial change in dairy market dynamics. This gain is driven by tighter milk supply and strong demand for butter, cheese, NDM, and whey. It’s a testament to the sector’s resilience, reassuring stakeholders and instilling confidence in the face of production and export variations.

All Milk Prices Poised for Significant Rise: Charting a New Trajectory for Dairy Market Stability higher pricing per hundredweight (cwt) allows dairy farmers to increase profitability, balancing increased input costs such as feed, labor, and energy. This might increase agricultural infrastructure and technology investments, improving efficiency and sustainability. However, depending on long-term price rises exposes producers to market instability and economic risk. Unexpected milk supply increases, or demand declines might cause price adjustments, jeopardizing financial stability. Stakeholders need to be aware of these potential risks and plan accordingly.

For consumers, predicted price increases in dairy commodities may boost retail costs for milk and milk-based products, straining family budgets, particularly among low-income households. The extent to which merchants pass on cost increases determines the effect. In highly competitive marketplaces, price transmission may be mitigated. Due to price fluctuations, consumers may seek lower-cost alternatives or shift their purchasing habits.

Overall, the expected increase in total milk prices reflects a complicated combination of supply limits and high demand. Farmers and consumers must strategize and adapt to navigate the economic environment and maintain the dairy sector’s long-term existence.

The Bottom Line

The dairy market estimate for 2024 and 2025 demonstrates a complicated relationship between higher cow numbers and slower growth in milk per cow, influencing export and import patterns. Milk output is expected to fall owing to lower milk yield per cow. Commercial dairy exports will grow in 2024 on a fat basis but fall on a skim-solids basis, with an overall decrease in 2025. Fat-based imports will rise in 2024 and stay constant in 2025, while skim-solid imports will fall in both years. Higher prices for cheese, butter, nonfat dry milk (NDM), and whey suggest tighter milk supplies, rising Class III and IV milk prices and driving the all-milk price projection to $22.25 per cwt in 2024 and $22.50 per cwt in 2025. Monitoring supply and demand is crucial for industry stakeholders. To succeed in an ever-changing market, they must be watchful, innovate, and embrace sustainable practices.

Key Takeaways:

  • The milk production forecast for 2024 is reduced due to slower growth in milk per cow, despite an increase in cow numbers.
  • Similarly, the 2025 milk production forecast is lowered as slower growth in milk per cow overshadows a larger cow inventory.
  • For 2024, commercial exports on a fat basis are raised, primarily driven by increased butter and cheese shipments, while skim-solids basis exports are lowered due to reduced nonfat dry milk (NDM) and lactose exports.
  • In 2025, commercial exports are expected to decrease on both fat and skim-solids bases.
  • Fat basis imports for 2024 are projected to rise, reflecting higher anticipated imports of butter and butterfat products, whereas skim-solids basis imports are lowered for a number of products.
  • For 2025, imports remain unchanged on a fat basis but are reduced on a skim-solids basis.
  • The prices of cheese, butter, NDM, and whey for 2024 are raised from previous forecasts due to recent price strengths and expectations of tighter milk supplies.
  • Higher dairy product prices elevate the Class III and Class IV price forecasts for 2024, with the all milk price forecast increased to $22.25 per cwt.
  • These stronger price trends are expected to continue into 2025, further raising projected prices for butter, cheese, NDM, and whey, along with Class III and Class IV milk prices, and an all milk price forecast of $22.50 per cwt.

Summary:

The dairy industry faces challenges in 2024 and 2025 due to slower milk per cow growth, affecting supply and demand swings. Factors like weather, feed quality, and genetic constraints contribute to the slow rise in production, outweighing the benefits of a large cow inventory. Despite increased cow numbers, overall milk yield remains below expectations, necessitating a projection revision. Commercial dairy exports for 2024 and 2025 show a complicated dynamic due to varied demand and production capacities across categories. Increased butter and cheese shipments in 2024 have boosted fat-based exports, indicating solid foreign demand for higher-fat dairy products. However, lower skim-solids base exports of nonfat dry milk and lactose indicate a shift in the trade environment, possibly driven by competitive price, nutritional demand adjustments, or trade policy changes. The forecast is more cautious until 2025, with fat-based and skim-solids-based exports expected to drop. Price elevations in dairy commodities are likely to rise compared to prior projections, with cheese prices climbing dramatically by 2024.

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Deadly Heatwave Alert: Record-Breaking Highs Threaten Lives in California, Nevada, and Texas – Are Your Dairy Farm Employees Safe?

Are you prepared for the deadly heatwave hitting California, Nevada, and Texas? Learn how to stay safe and protect your health during record-breaking temperatures.

As California, Nevada, and Texas grapple with an unprecedented heatwave, prepare yourself for blistering heat. The National Weather Service warns of record-breaking temperatures, soaring 10, 15, and 20 degrees above average. This isn’t just uncomfortable—it’s a life-threatening situation. In Mexico, a similar heatwave has already claimed numerous lives. It’s crucial to learn how to stay safe and protect everyone, from employees to animals, during these dangerously high temperatures.

As California, Nevada, and Texas face an extreme heatwave, brace yourself for scorching heat. The National Weather Service predicts record-breaking temperatures, soaring 10, 15, and 20 degrees above average. This isn’t just uncomfortable—it’s dangerous. In Mexico, similar heat has already caused numerous fatalities. Learn how to stay safe and protect everyone, from employees to animals, during these dangerously high temperatures.

Scorching Heatwave: Prepare for the Worst

CityAverage July Temperature (°F)Record High July Temperature (°F)Predicted Temperature During Heatwave (°F)
Los Angeles, CA85109115
Las Vegas, NV104117120
Dallas, TX96110113

The western United States is bracing for an intense heatwave. The National Weather Service, a trusted authority in weather forecasting, predicts daily highs in California, Nevada, and Texas could be 10-20 degrees above normal. These extreme temperatures are beyond typical summer heat and pose serious risks. 

Mexico’s recent record-breaking heatwave, which led to dozens of deaths, serves as a stark reminder of the potential dangers of extreme heat. As similar conditions are now being experienced in parts of the US, it’s crucial to take the necessary precautions. 

Stay informed hydrated, and protect your loved ones from the heat.

Farm Management Specialist Shares Essential Tips to Beat the Heat

Melissa O’Rourke, a respected farm management specialist, shares vital tips to keep employees safe during extreme heat. She recommends setting up water stations and coolers to keep drinks cold and scheduling regular breaks in cool or shaded areas. These steps can significantly reduce the risk of heat-related illnesses and ensure employees stay well during dangerously high temperatures.

Stay Cool: Additional Measures to Protect Workers 

To safeguard workers from the blistering heat, consider additional preventive measures. Ensure employees wear light-colored, loose-fitting clothing. This type of clothing reflects heat and allows for better air circulation, helping to keep the body cool. Wide-brimmed hats and UV-protective sunglasses can also help reduce sun exposure, preventing sunburn and heat-related illnesses. 

Hydration is crucial. Dehydration is a serious risk during extreme heat. Signs of dehydration include dark urine, dry mouth, fatigue, and dizziness. Provide fresh, cool water consistently and encourage regular drinking, even without thirst. Aim for at least one gallon per person daily. Staying hydrated helps maintain body temperature and prevents dehydration, which can lead to heat cramps and heat exhaustion. 

Combine these measures with shaded rest areas and lighter workloads during peak heat hours to reduce the risk of heat-related illnesses. But it’s not just about individual actions. We need to look out for one another. Check on your neighbors, especially the elderly and those without air conditioning. Be proactive, stay informed, and prioritize everyone’s well-being.

Recognizing and Responding to Heat-Related Illnesses: Essential Knowledge for Staying Safe 

Understanding heat-related illnesses is crucial for prevention and treatment. Here are the four most common ones you should know about: 

Heat Rash: Prickly heat occurs when sweat ducts become blocked, causing red bumps or blisters. This can be extremely itchy and uncomfortable. 

Heat Cramps are muscle pains or spasms, usually in the legs or abdomen, caused by the loss of electrolytes and fluids from sweating. 

Heat Exhaustion: This condition is caused by excessive loss of water and salt through sweating. Symptoms include heavy sweating, dizziness, nausea, headache, cold, and clammy skin. It can lead to heat stroke if not promptly treated. If you or someone you know is experiencing these symptoms, it’s important to move to a cool, shaded area, drink plenty of fluids, and apply cool compresses to the neck and forehead. 

Heat Stroke: The most severe form happens when the body can’t regulate its temperature. Symptoms include high body temperature (above 103°F), hot, dry skin, rapid pulse, confusion, and loss of consciousness. This is an emergency requiring immediate medical attention.

Quick and Effective Responses to Heat-Related Illnesses You Need to Know 

It’s crucial to recognize and respond to heat-related illnesses promptly: 

  • Heat Rash: Keep the area dry and cool. Wear loose, breathable clothing.
  • Heat Cramps: Move to an excellent spot, stretch gently, and drink electrolyte-rich fluids.
  • Heat Exhaustion: Rest in a shaded, cool area. Drink cool fluids and apply ice packs to lower body temperature.
  • Heat Stroke: Call 911 immediately. Cool the person with cold water or wet clothes. Avoid giving fluids if unconscious.

Act quickly to prevent these conditions from worsening. Stay vigilant, calm, and safe.

The Bottom Line

As the heatwave engulfs California, Nevada, and Texas, it’s crucial to take proactive measures. Follow Melissa O’Rourke’s expert advice: Set up water stations and coolers, and ensure plenty of shaded breaks. Recognizing and addressing heat illness symptoms swiftly is paramount. Stay vigilant and informed to protect yourself and your loved ones. Remember, preparedness and prompt action are your strongest defenses in this battle against extreme heat.

Key Takeaways:

  • Expect temperatures to be 10-20 degrees above average in California, Nevada, and Texas.
  • Implement and maintain water stations to keep employees hydrated.
  • Encourage frequent breaks in cool or shaded areas to prevent overheating.
  • Use special garments to protect against the sun.
  • Recognize signs of heat-related illnesses (heat rash, cramps, exhaustion, stroke) and know how to respond.
  • Adopt additional measures like wearing light-colored, loose-fitting clothing and drinking plenty of cool liquids.

Summary: The western US is experiencing an unprecedented heatwave, with temperatures soaring 10-20 degrees above average. This is not only uncomfortable but also life-threatening, as Mexico has already experienced similar heatwaves. Farm management specialist Melissa O’Rourke suggests tips to keep employees safe during extreme heat, such as setting up water stations and coolers, scheduling regular breaks in cool or shaded areas, and reducing the risk of heat-related illnesses. To protect workers, consider wearing light-colored, loose-fitting clothing that reflects heat and allows better air circulation. Providing fresh, cool water and encouraging regular drinking can also help reduce the risk of heat-related illnesses. Combining these measures with shaded rest areas and lighter workloads during peak heat hours can also reduce the risk of heat-related illnesses.

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