How did USMCA boost U.S. dairy exports to Mexico by 59%? What does this mean for dairy farmers? Discover key insights and future opportunities.

Summary:

Have you ever wondered why Mexico has become such a crucial market for U.S. dairy producers? The answer lies in trade policies, particularly the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). From 2014 to 2023, U.S. dairy exports to Mexico surged by an impressive 59%, thanks to strategic agreements like the USMCA, which replaced NAFTA. These policies develop new markets and increase demand for U.S. dairy products. Mexico’s proximity and favorable trade conditions have significantly contributed to this growth. However, the future outlook faces challenges due to the recent depreciation of the Mexican peso. This could reduce Mexico’s buying power and make U.S. dairy products more costly and less competitive.

Key Takeaways:

• USMCA replaced NAFTA, significantly increasing U.S. dairy exports to Mexico.
• From 2014 to 2023, U.S. dairy exports to Mexico surged by 59%.
• Trade policies like USMCA help develop new markets, increasing demand for U.S. dairy products.
• More than one-third of U.S. nonfat dry milk and skim milk powder exports go to Mexico, up to half by 2023.
• Mexico is the top international customer for U.S. cheese, with exports rising nearly 80% between 2014 and 2023.
• The Mexican peso’s fluctuating value may impact future dairy exports, but the established partnership remains strong.
• 2024 is on track to be another record year for U.S. dairy exports to Mexico despite potential challenges.

Did you know that between 2014 and 2023, U.S. dairy exports to Mexico increased by 59%? This increase, from little less than a billion pounds in 2014 to over 1.6 billion pounds in 2023, emphasizes the critical significance of the Mexican market for American dairy producers. Trade policies like USMCA and NAFTA help dairy farmers in the United States by creating new product markets and raising demand. The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is critical to this success story, fostering a robust economic relationship and ensuring that U.S. dairy products stay competitive in Mexico’s expanding market.

USMCA: A Game-Changer for U.S. Dairy Farmers 

The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on July 1, 2020. This contemporary trade agreement seeks to establish a more balanced and reciprocal trading climate among the three countries concerned. NAFTA has been in force since 1994, altering the North American trading environment. Still, it has also been criticized for its impact on manufacturing employment and its outmoded provisions in light of technological improvements and new economic realities.

The USMCA has updated and comprehensive laws governing digital commerce, worker rights, and environmental norms. The accord has significantly impacted the dairy business, benefiting U.S. dairy farmers.

Key provisions include: 

• Increased Market Access: The USMCA expands U.S. dairy producers’ access to the Canadian market while removing Canada’s Class 7 pricing scheme. This strategy formerly permitted Canadian dairy farmers to undercut American rivals by artificially lowering milk prices.
• Tariff Reductions: The accord decreases dairy tariffs, making U.S. commodities more competitive in Mexico and Canada.
• Regulatory Alignment: The USMCA aligns sanitary and phytosanitary procedures to guarantee that health and safety requirements do not unfairly impede commerce. This alignment enables U.S. dairy goods to flow more efficiently and with less bureaucratic friction.
• Enforcement Mechanisms: The USMCA establishes more robust enforcement tools. These measures guarantee that the agreement’s obligations are followed, safeguarding U.S. dairy farmers from unfair trade practices.

Overall, the USMCA is a significant advance over NAFTA in critical aspects, including updated rules that reflect contemporary economic realities. These improvements for the dairy business in the United States promise new prospects for expansion, better market stability, and the possibility of a more fair playing field in North America.

The USMCA’s Role in Driving U.S. Dairy Exports to Mexico

The remarkable increase in U.S. dairy exports to Mexico may be directly related to the implementation of the USMCA. Between 2014 and 2023, the United States experienced a 59% growth in dairy exports to its southern neighbor, climbing from slightly under 1 billion pounds in 2014 to over 1.6 billion pounds by 2023. This increase highlights the importance of the USMCA as an accelerator for extending market access and strengthening trade connections. The USMCA’s provisions, such as increased market access and tariff reductions, have significantly influenced this growth.

Trade policies like USMCA and NAFTA help dairy farmers in the United States by creating new product markets and raising demand. These agreements are a crucial reason U.S. dairy exports to Mexico have expanded over the last decade, and they help explain why U.S. dairy will do better in these countries in 2024 than in Asian destinations. The USMCA’s provisions, such as increased market access and tariff reductions, have driven this growth. For instance, the increased market access to Canada and the removal of Canada’s Class 7 pricing scheme have opened up new opportunities for U.S. dairy producers. The tariff reductions have made U.S. commodities more competitive in Mexico and Canada, increasing exports.

Between 2014 and 2023, U.S. dairy exports increased by 19%, totaling 942 million pounds. The Mexican market has emerged as an essential growth driver within this environment. Notably, from January to July 2024, dairy exports to Mexico increased by almost 950 million pounds, a 2% rise over the previous year. Mexico has outpaced other main export markets in importing dairy from the United States, making it a crucial partner for U.S. dairy.

According to USDA statistics, Mexico imported 35% of the 2.56 billion pounds of nonfat dry milk and skim milk powder produced in the United States last year. This interchange was enabled by Mexico’s proximity and advantageous trade accords, bolstering its position as a leading consumer of dairy goods from the United States. This bilateral commerce is lucrative and necessary for the long-term health of the United States dairy industry.

The growing trend in cheese exports is also remarkable. From 2014 to 2023, cheese exports to Mexico increased by about 80%, reaching around 327 million pounds last year. This enormous expansion is reflected in the USMCA’s effective reworking of trade dynamics. This year’s exports to Mexico have increased dramatically, with five of the seven months in the top five in volume. Year-to-date through July, U.S. cheese shipments to Mexico were over 40% higher than the previous year.

While currency variations, such as the devaluation of the Mexican peso, may present obstacles, the strategic benefits of proximity and advantageous trade conditions continue to ensure Mexico’s position as a critical participant in the U.S. dairy export market. As a result, the prospects for U.S. dairy exports to Mexico are positive in the future, thanks to USMCA.

U.S. Dairy Titans: NDM, SMP, and Cheese Dominate Exports to Mexico 

Let’s drill down into the specifics of which U.S. dairy products are leading the charge in exports to Mexico. The data speaks volumes about the impact of these critical commodities:

The first two options are nonfat dry milk (NDM) and skim powder. According to USDA statistics, a whopping 35% of the 2.56 billion pounds of nonfat dry milk and skim milk powder produced in the United States last year ended up in Mexican markets. This isn’t a fluke; Mexico’s proportion of U.S. nonfat and skim milk powder exports in the last decade has increased from around one-third to almost half by 2023 [USDA]. This significant gain corresponds to a 50% increase in total U.S. powder exports overseas during the same time. In practice, these powders serve many functions in Mexican food production, including strengthening cheese vats, improving other culinary applications, and even being reconstituted into drinking milk.

Next on the list is cheese, another major dairy export from the United States to Mexico. From 2014 to 2023, cheese exports to Mexico increased by about 80%, reaching roughly 327 million pounds last year. Historically, Mexico accounted for just 20% of U.S. cheese exports in 2014. Fast forward to last year, when the proportion has grown to 35% [USDA]. Notably, 2024 is shaping to be another golden year, with U.S. cheese shipments to Mexico roughly 40% higher than last year in the first seven months. Despite anticipated slowdowns caused by increased cheese costs, underlying demand remains strong. If cheese exports plateau, demand for NDM and SMP is expected to cover any gaps, particularly as Mexican processors shift to utilizing these commodities to supplement their cheese manufacturing capacity.

This in-depth analysis of NDM, SMP, and cheese exports emphasizes the importance of these commodities in maintaining and developing the US-Mexico dairy trade. With advantageous trade agreements and geographic advantages, U.S. dairy farmers are well-positioned to satisfy Mexico’s changing demands.

Geographical Proximity: Fueling a Seamless U.S.-Mexico Dairy Trade

The physical closeness of the United States and Mexico has considerably simplified operations, lowering transportation time and costs and making it simpler and less expensive for U.S. dairy farmers to send their goods to Mexican markets. This proximity promotes a symbiotic economic relationship in which fresh items may travel quickly, assuring quality and efficiency.

Economically, the Mexican market is ready for U.S. dairy, owing to a growing middle class with greater buying power and dietary trends toward protein-rich foods like milk. The USMCA has reinforced this partnership by assuring tariff-free trade in critical dairy goods.

However, the Mexican peso’s shifting value is crucial. When the peso falls in value, Mexican customers pay more for American goods, impeding exports. In contrast, a rising peso makes American dairy more inexpensive, increasing trade. The peso recently touched its lowest exchange rate in almost two years, raising concerns for U.S. exporters. However, existing trade agreements and proximity provide a buffer, ensuring a solid and optimistic trading future.

Future Outlook for U.S. Dairy Exports to Mexico

Looking forward, U.S. dairy exports to Mexico show promise, but the road ahead is challenging. Currency exchange rate volatility is a significant concern. The recent depreciation of the Mexican peso versus the U.S. dollar may reduce Mexico’s buying power, making U.S. dairy goods more costly and less competitive. This volatility may undermine the steady growth trajectory that U.S. dairy exporters have enjoyed. In times of a lower peso, Mexican purchasers may seek cheaper alternatives or cut their total dairy consumption, affecting export volumes.

However, demand for nonfat dry milk (NDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) in Mexico remains strong. These products are used in various culinary applications, including strengthening cheese vats and reconstituting into drinking milk. Mexico has been the most extensive US NDM and SMP market during the last decade, and this trend seems to continue. As Mexico’s food processing sector matures and expands, the need for high-quality dairy components is anticipated to stay high.

Furthermore, the USMCA’s geographical closeness and low tariffs provide U.S. dairy exporters a significant edge. The agreement assures that U.S. dairy goods may access the Mexican market with little restrictions, maintaining a dependable and efficient trading relationship. This privileged access sustains present trade volumes and paves the way for future development as Mexican consumer tastes and industry demands shift.

Another positive development is the diversity of dairy products exported to Mexico. While NDM and SMP remain at the forefront, there is a significant possibility for expansion in other categories, such as cheese and whey products. U.S. exporters may adopt specific methods to meet the changing wants and tastes of Mexico’s customer base and food sector.

While currency swings constitute a significant risk, the ongoing demand for NDM and SMP, together with the advantages of the USMCA, suggest a bright future for U.S. dairy exports to Mexico. Stakeholders should stay watchful and adaptable, exploiting the trade agreement’s benefits while managing economic factors to maintain and improve their market position.

The Bottom Line

From the increase in dairy exports spurred by trade agreements such as USMCA to the critical function of geographical proximity, the United States dairy industry’s connection with Mexico has proved beneficial. Its substantial success in the nonfat dry, skim milk powder, and cheese sectors shows the partnership’s relevance. As we look forward, one concern remains: how can U.S. dairy farmers and industry experts capitalize on these prospects in the face of unpredictable economic conditions? Your proactive efforts could affect the future of U.S. dairy exports.

Learn more:

• US and Mexico Dairy Industries Strengthen Ties for Mutual Growth and Advocacy
• Why Mexico is Essential to the U.S. Cheese Markets: A Comprehensive Analysis
• U.S Dairy Industry Pushes for Enhanced Trade Policies to Boost Exports and Strengthen Supply Chain

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