Archive for Uruguay

Decline in Dutch Milk Supply Amid Rising EU Production and Stable European Milk Prices

Find out why Dutch milk supply is dropping while EU production is growing. What does this mean for European milk prices? Check out the latest trends and market changes.

As the Dutch dairy industry struggles with falling milk production, Europe faces a curious paradox: a ‘milk lake.’ This situation, where there is an excess milk supply, highlights the complex dynamics within the European dairy market and broader agricultural trends reshaping the industry. This article examines the contrasting developments in Dutch milk supply and rising milk production across the EU, as well as the ‘milk lake’ implications on market stability and pricing mechanisms.

While the Netherlands has seen a continuous decline in milk output due to factors like the bluetongue virus and regulatory changes, countries like Poland and Germany are witnessing growth. According to ZuivelNL, the EU milk supply has grown by 1.1 percent in the first four months of this year, whereas the Netherlands’ supply has dropped by 1.3 percent. These opposing trends raise questions about supply management, market stability, and pricing mechanisms within Europe’s dairy industry.

Unraveling the Drop: Biological Strains and Regulatory Chains Impact Dutch Milk Supply

MonthMilk Supply (million kg)Change from Previous Year (%)
January 20241,100-1.2%
February 20241,050-1.0%
March 20241,200-0.9%
April 20241,180-1.5%
May 20241,150-1.6%

The decline in the supply of Dutch milk stems from biological challenges and regulatory constraints. Last year, the bluetongue virus outbreak in autumn significantly impacted livestock health, reducing milk yield. This effect is evident in the 1.6% drop in May 2023 and a 1.3% average decrease over the first five months of 2024. 

Compounding these biological issues are regulatory changes, specifically the phase-out of derogation, which historically allowed farmers to use higher manure levels to boost production. With stricter nitrogen emission and manure management rules now in place, the number of dairy cows per farm is capped, further limiting milk output. 

In summary, combining the bluetongue virus and regulatory shifts, such as the end of derogation, has led to a notable reduction in Dutch milk production.

Diverse Trends in EU Milk Supply: Poland’s Surge Amid Ireland’s Struggles

CountryMilk Supply Change (April 2024)
Poland+5%
Germany+0.6%
France0%
Ireland-8%

The European Union’s milk supply has seen a notable rise, with a 0.6% increase in April and a 1.1% growth over the year’s first four months. Poland’s impressive 5% increase and Germany’s slight uptick have significantly boosted the EU’s overall supply. However, Ireland struggles with an 8% decline, and France’s growth has stagnated. These contrasts highlight the complexities within the European dairy market.

Stability Amid Complexity: European Milk Prices Buoyed by Sustainability Initiatives and Bonuses

CompanyPrice in May (€ per 100 kg)Change (€ per 100 kg)Sustainability Premium (€ per 100 kg)
Milcobel44.100.000.78
Laiterie des Ardennes (LDA)44.10+0.500.49
DMK Deutsches Milchkontor eG44.10+0.510.50
Hochwald eG44.100.000.80
Arla44.10+0.452.44
Capsa Food44.10+0.06
Valio44.100.00
Savencia44.10-0.09
Danone44.10-0.03
Lactalis44.10-0.18
Sodiaal44.100.000.29
Saputo Dairy UK44.10+0.05
Dairygold44.10+1.08
Tirlan44.10+0.150.50
Kerry Agribusiness44.10-0.190.10
FrieslandCampina44.10+0.471.21
Emmi44.10-0.62
Fonterra44.10+0.32
United States class III44.10-0.29

Since January, European milk prices have remained stable, around 44 euros per 100 kg. In May, the average was 44.10 euros per 100 kg, a slight increase of 0.07 euros from April. This steadiness is due to sustainability premiums and bonuses, including rewards for participating in sustainability programs, GMO-free milk, and other environmentally friendly practices. Such incentives buffer producers from market fluctuations and contribute to the stability of milk prices.

Global Dairy Dynamics: Diverging Trends Highlight the EU’s Stable Milk Supply Amid Global Volatility

CountryApril 2024 Milk Supply Change (%)January-April 2024 Milk Supply Change (%)
Poland+5.0+3.8
Germany+0.8+1.1
France0.0+0.5
Ireland-8.0-6.5
Netherlands-1.6-1.3

In the global dairy market, trends vary widely among significant exporters. Australia has recently shown resilience with a 3% growth. Conversely, the United States and New Zealand faced declines, with the US seeing a slight decrease and New Zealand a more significant 4% drop

The situation is more severe in South America. Argentina’s milk production shrank by 16%, and Uruguay’s fell by 7% in April, highlighting regional challenges. In contrast, the combined volume of significant dairy exporters, including the EU, saw a modest 0.3% increase (0.35 billion kg) up to April 2024. These trends illustrate the diverse fortunes and impacts in the global dairy market.

Market Dichotomy: Butter Price Volatility Versus Skimmed Milk Powder’s Competitive Pressures

ProductDatePrice (€/100 kg)
Butter3/7/24670
Butter29/5/24668
Butteravg. 2023476
Skimmed Milk Powder3/7/24241
Skimmed Milk Powder29/5/24248
Skimmed Milk Powderavg. 2023242

The European dairy market paints a nuanced picture of butter and skimmed milk powder pricesButter prices saw significant volatility in early 2024, rising sharply from mid-May to early June before stabilizing due to unexpectedly cool summer temperatures reducing cream demand. This stabilization has introduced uncertainty into the butter market. 

Conversely, skimmed milk powder prices have been relatively stable but face competitive pressures from cheaper US and Oceania imports. Demand unpredictability, especially in Asian markets, has also contributed to minor price decreases through June, highlighting ongoing challenges in the market.

The Bottom Line

The European market presents a mix of trends as the Dutch milk supply declines due to biological and regulatory challenges. However, the EU sees growth, driven by Poland, while Ireland faces declines. European milk prices, buoyed by sustainability premiums and bonuses, remain stable amid global volatility. Globally, the EU’s stability contrasts with declines in New Zealand and Argentina. These contrasting trends underscore the potential for growth and the need for innovation and collaboration within the global dairy sector. 

The dairy sector is currently grappling with biological strains, regulatory burdens, and economic challenges, all impacting profitability and market consolidation. Smaller farms are particularly at risk. In this context, strategic adaptive measures and support systems are crucial. It’s a call to action for policymakers, stakeholders, and farmers to unite, using sustainability initiatives to counter economic strains and ensure food security. The industry’s resilience is evident, but proactive regulation, sustainability, and financial support are essential. A combined effort is needed to enhance dairy farming. This analysis underscores the need for innovation and collaboration within the global dairy sector.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Dutch milk supply has continued its downward trend, recording a 1.6 percent decrease in May 2024 as compared to May 2023, attributed to the bluetongue virus and changes in derogation policies.
  • Despite the Dutch decline, the overall milk supply in the European Union increased by 1.1 percent over the first four months of 2024, driven by significant growth in Poland and slight increases in Germany, while Ireland’s output fell sharply.
  • European milk prices have shown remarkable stability, averaging around 44 euros per 100 kg since January 2024, buoyed by various sustainability surcharges and bonuses across different countries and companies.
  • Globally, major dairy exporters illustrated mixed trends, with Australia’s supply growing, while Argentina and New Zealand experienced substantial declines.
  • The Dutch dairy product market exhibited volatility, notably in butter prices, while skimmed milk powder prices faced competitive pressures from cheaper US and Oceania products, leading to slight decreases in June.

Summary:

The Dutch dairy industry is experiencing a’milk lake’ due to a decline in production due to the bluetongue virus outbreak and regulatory changes. The EU’s milk supply has increased, with Poland and Germany contributing to the overall supply. Ireland and France are struggling with declines. Sustainability premiums and bonuses contribute to market stability and milk prices. Global dairy market trends vary among exporters, with Australia showing resilience with a 3% growth, while the US and New Zealand face declines. South America’s situation is more severe, with Argentina’s milk production shrinking by 16% and Uruguay’s falling by 7%. Policymakers, stakeholders, and farmers must unite to counter economic strains and enhance dairy farming.

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Enhancing Dairy Cattle Genetics: How Metafounders Improve Genomic Predictions

Discover how metafounders enhance genomic predictions in Uruguayan dairy cattle. Can these methods improve your herd’s genetic progress and productivity? Find out now.

Genetic improvement is not just a concept but the foundation of advancing dairy cattle herds, especially in smaller countries like Uruguay. These nations heavily rely on foreign genetics to enhance their herds, aiming to increase productivity, improve health traits, and boost resilience. However, this reliance on imported genetic material presents its own challenges, particularly regarding the unique genetic landscapes of these countries and the complexities of establishing accurate pedigrees and breeding values. 

While beneficial, integrating foreign genetics into domestic herds demands meticulous modeling and evaluation. This task is not to be taken lightly, as it is crucial to ensure unbiased and accurate breeding predictions.

Let’s delve into the complex world of genetic Improvement in Uruguayan Dairy Farming. This world can often feel like a maze. We’ll explore the challenges unknown parent groups pose and the solutions we’ve developed to navigate this maze effectively. In Uruguay, the issue is compounded by a dependency on unknown parent groups (UPG), which include foreign sires with untraceable ancestries. These UPGs can introduce biases in genomic estimated breeding values (GEBV), complicating the task of selecting the best animals for breeding. Understanding how these foreign genetics interact with local populations and how to model them effectively is crucial for sustainable genetic improvement in small countries. 

Genomic predictions have revolutionized dairy farming by enabling a more accurate selection of animals with desirable traits. They harness the power of DNA information, predicting an animal’s genetic potential with higher precision. This is particularly important in small countries like Uruguay, which rely heavily on imported foreign genetics. 

In traditional genetic evaluations, an animal’s pedigree provides crucial information. However, dealing with Unknown Parent Groups (UPG) is a common challenge. UPG represents animals whose ancestors are unknown, which can lead to prediction biases. Here’s where Metafounders (MF) come into play. Metafounders are hypothetical ancestors that can be used to represent genetic relationships better and improve the accuracy of genetic evaluations when dealing with unknown pedigree data. 

Now, let’s break down the methodologies involved: 

BLUP (Best Linear Unbiased Prediction) is a statistical method for predicting breeding values based on pedigrees and performance data. It has been the cornerstone of genetic evaluations for decades. However, BLUP does not consider genomic information directly. 

Conversely, ssGBLUP (Single-Step Genomic BLUP) incorporates pedigree and genomic data, offering more precise genetic evaluations. This method corrects for biases and provides a more accurate prediction of an animal’s genetic potential by combining traditional pedigree information with genomic information. 

Your understanding of these concepts is not just crucial; it’s empowering. It enables you to make informed decisions in dairy farming, helping you select the best breeding animals and improve your herd’s productivity and genetic quality. This knowledge puts you in a position of strength in genetic improvement.

Navigating Genetic Evaluation for Uruguay’s Dairy Herds: The Foreign Influence Challenge 

Uruguay’s small dairy populations face unique challenges regarding genetic evaluation. One significant hurdle is the substantial influence of foreign genetics. For countries that rely heavily on imported genetics, like Uruguay, integrating unknown parent groups (UPG) becomes crucial. These groups account for the genetic contributions of foreign sires whose pedigrees might be incomplete or partially unknown. However, incorporating UPG into genomic evaluations is not without its pitfalls. 

One of the primary challenges involves potential biases in the genomic estimated breeding values (GEBV). These biases can emerge from inaccuracies in modeling the UPG. Different models, such as using UPG alone or combining UPG with metafounders (MF), aim to tackle these biases, but their efficacy can vary. The research found that while both approaches performed well, using bounded linear regression to establish base allele population frequencies (MFbounded) was superior in predicting GEBV. However, even the best models exhibited some biases, particularly affecting the earliest generations, whose origins were not entirely understood. 

Additionally, the evaluations showed another layer of complexity with overdispersion issues, primarily in validation bulls. This means that the spread of predicted values was broader than expected, making GEBV predictions less precise. Interestingly, while biases were present across all models for bulls, in cows, they were only a problem when using UPG in traditional BLUP (best linear unbiased prediction) methods. 

In summary, while Uruguay’s small dairy populations face technical challenges in accurate genetic evaluation, overcoming these issues can lead to significant benefits. Addressing these challenges is critical for farmers to make informed breeding decisions, ultimately enhancing the genetic progress of their herds. With the right strategies and tools, the future of genetic improvement in dairy cattle herds in Uruguay is promising.

Metafounders vs. Unknown Parent Groups: Navigating Genetic Evaluations in Dairy Farming 

In genomic evaluations, meta founders (MF) and unknown parent groups (UPG) offer a nuanced approach to understanding genetic progress, particularly in regions heavily influenced by foreign genetics like Uruguay. 

UPG: A Traditional PillarUnknown Parent Groups (UPG) have long been a cornerstone in pedigree-based evaluations. Upgrading animals with unknown parents into categories based on specific criteria—like birth year or country of origin—UPG helps mitigate bias caused by missing pedigree data. While this approach has been valuable, it has limitations, mainly when used in genomic models. The disadvantages are evident: it often leads to bias in genomic estimated breeding values (GEBV). It can result in overdispersion, particularly in populations where foreign genetic material plays a significant role. 

MF: A Modern SolutionMetafounders (MF), on the other hand, offer a more advanced solution. By utilizing base allele population frequencies, MF can provide a more accurate portrayal of genetic relationships. The MFbounded estimator, in particular, has shown promising results, outperforming UPG by reducing bias and improving GEBV predictions. The robustness of MF allows for better handling of genetic diversity. It can adapt more effectively to the specific genetic background of the population. However, it’s worth noting that some bias still exists, the origins of which still need to be fully understood. 

Why MF Might Be BetterThe primary advantage of MF over UPG is the enhancement in the accuracy and reliability of GEBV predictions. While UPG groups animals based on broad categories, MF takes a more granular approach by factoring in allele frequencies, offering a nuanced understanding of genetic inheritances. This makes MF a better option, especially for countries like Uruguay, where foreign genetics play a pivotal role in dairy farming. By reducing the bias and improving prediction accuracy, MF can significantly enhance genetic evaluations, providing dairy farmers with more reliable data to make informed breeding decisions. 

In summary, while UPG and MF have their place in genomic evaluations, MF offers a modern, more accurate alternative that better aligns with the complexities of contemporary dairy farming genetics.

Precision in Genomic Predictions: Exploring the Gamma Matrix with MFbounded and MFrobust 

In our quest to enhance the genetic evaluation systems for Uruguayan Holsteins, we delved into estimating the gamma matrix (γ) with precision. Two distinct approaches were taken: MFbounded and MFrobust. These methods essentially shape how we group and assess the influence of unknown parent groups (UPG) within our dairy population. 

MFbounded Approach: This method utilizes base allele population frequencies determined by bounded linear regression. By defining these base frequencies, we could estimate γ efficiently, ensuring it echoes the actual genetic variances from our dairy herd’s population. This bounded approach allows for a more restrained estimation process that caters closely to real-world data characteristics. 

MFrobust Approach: Conversely, the MFrobust method uses a generalized, robust design for the gamma matrix by applying two distinct values: one for the diagonal and another for the off-diagonal elements of γ. This dual-parameter setup aims to capture a broader range of variances and covariances, making the γ estimation more versatile but potentially less centered on actual population specifics. 

Both approaches were implemented within the Uruguayan Holstein population to compare their efficacy in generating reliable Genomic Estimated Breeding Values (GEBV). While both methods performed adequately, the MFbounded technique emerged as the preferred choice due to its higher precision and closer alignment with the population’s genetic structure. However, some residual bias remained, indicating that further refinement might be necessary.

Critical Insights for Dairy Farmers: Choosing the Right Genomic Prediction Model

In sum, the study found that both gamma (Γ) estimators, MFbounded and MFrobust, produced reliable genomic estimated breeding values (GEBV) for dairy cattle. However, MFbounded emerged as the superior option due to its slightly better performance. Adopting the MFbounded approach could lead to more precise breeding predictions for dairy farmers. 

Interestingly, the study did reveal some biases. While these biases were observed across all models for validation bulls, they only appeared with Unknown Parent Groups (UPG) in the traditional Best Linear Unbiased Prediction (BLUP) model when validating cows. Overdispersion was a common issue, notably in validation bulls, suggesting that there might be occasional overestimates or underestimates in GEBV predictions. 

A crucial takeaway for you, as a dairy farmer, is that the single-step genomic BLUP (ssGBLUP) model generally provides more accurate predictions compared to the traditional BLUP method. This could lead to improved breeding strategies and better herd management, enhancing genetic progress and overall productivity in your dairy operations.

Empowering Uruguay’s Dairy Farmers: The Metafounder Edge in Genomic Evaluations

The findings of this study have significant implications for dairy farmers in Uruguay. Adopting metafounders (MF) in your herd’s genetic evaluations can significantly enhance the accuracy of genomic predictions. Unlike traditional methods that might introduce bias or offer less reliable data, MF provides a more robust framework for accounting for unknown parent groups (UPG). This means you’re getting more apparent, more accurate genetic profiles of your cattle, even when their parentage isn’t fully known. 

Improved accuracy in genomic predictions translates directly to better genetic improvement. With a more precise understanding of your cattle’s genetic worth, you can make smarter breeding decisions, leading to a more substantial, more productive herd over time. Leveraging the MFbounded approach, which has shown the best performance in the study, can help minimize bias and enhance the reliability of your genetic evaluations. This ultimately means healthier cattle, higher milk yields, and greater profitability for your dairy farm.

The Bottom Line

Accurate genomic predictions are fundamental for the continual improvement of dairy cattle. They help farmers make informed breeding decisions, ultimately boosting productivity and ensuring the vitality of their herds. Adopting metafounders (MF) in genetic evaluations offers a clear advantage, demonstrating more reliable and precise breeding values than traditional methods. By embracing MF, you can reduce bias and increase the accuracy of genetic predictions, leading to more robust and productive dairy operations. 

As a dairy farmer in Uruguay, integrating MF into your genetic evaluation toolkit could be a game-changer. Not only does it account for complex genetic backgrounds and foreign genetics, but it also aids in navigating the challenges posed by unknown parent groups. So, consider leveraging this advanced approach in your breeding programs. The investment in accurate genomic predictions today will pay vital dividends in the health, efficiency, and profitability of your dairy farm tomorrow.

Key Takeaways:

  • Genetic improvement in small countries like Uruguay relies heavily on foreign genetics.
  • Considering unknown parent groups (UPG) for foreign sires is crucial to avoid bias in genomic estimated breeding values (GEBV).
  • Using metafounders (MF) can help model genetic progress more accurately than traditional UPG methods.
  • The MFbounded approach, which uses base allele population frequencies, produces the best GEBV predictions despite some minor biases.
  • Significant overdispersion was noted, especially in validation bulls, across all genomic prediction models tested.
  • Single-step genomic BLUP (ssGBLUP) models provide better prediction accuracy than traditional BLUP models.

Summary:

Genetic improvement is crucial for dairy cattle herds, especially in smaller countries like Uruguay, where they heavily rely on foreign genetics to increase productivity, improve health traits, and boost resilience. However, integrating foreign genetics into domestic herds requires meticulous modeling and evaluation to ensure unbiased and accurate breeding predictions. In Uruguay, the issue is compounded by a dependency on unknown parent groups (UPG), which can introduce biases in genomic estimated breeding values (GEBV), complicating the task of selecting the best animals for breeding.

Genomic predictions have revolutionized dairy farming by enabling more accurate selection of animals with desirable traits. Traditional genetic evaluations, such as BLUP and ssGBLUP, are often complicated by UPG. Metafounders (MF) have been adopted to represent genetic relationships better and improve the accuracy of genetic evaluations when dealing with unknown pedigree data. However, some bias still exists, which the origins of which need to be fully understood.

Learn more:

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