Is the global dairy market set for a comeback? Discover how rising prices and shifting supply dynamics could impact the industry through 2024.
The global dairy market is at a pivotal point, transitioning towards higher prices in 2024. Rabobank’s latest report indicates that dairy commodity prices have bottomed out and are set to rise. By the end of 2023, the market faced limited new milk supply and sluggish demand, resulting in soft commodity pricing due to weak fundamentals.
“2023 was marked by soft dairy commodity pricing from weaker fundamentals,” says Michael Harvey, senior dairy analyst at Rabobank. Despite a brief resurgence, global supply growth faltered due to lower milk prices, high costs, and weather disruptions. The global market anticipated a Chinese rebalancing, only to see significant import shortfalls for the second year.
“There is growing evidence that the bottom in the dairy commodity markets has passed, and prices are likely to climb through 2024,” Rabobank’s report notes, offering a cautiously optimistic outlook.
“There is growing evidence that the bottom in the dairy commodity markets has passed, and prices are likely to climb through 2024,” Rabobank’s report notes, offering a cautiously optimistic outlook.
A Year of Turbulence: Factors Contributing to the 2023 Global Dairy Market Slump
2023 witnessed a convergence of challenges that softened global dairy commodity prices. Firstly, limited milk supply growth defined the year, as brief surges were hindered by falling milk prices and rising operational costs. Additionally, severe weather disruptions worsened supply chain inefficiencies, affecting production in crucial dairy regions.
Higher input costs, from feed to energy, strained dairy farms worldwide, making it difficult to stay profitable. Unpredictable environmental conditions further challenged the agricultural sector‘s resilience.
The market also felt the impact of China’s reduced dairy imports. As the largest dairy importer, China’s decreased demand created significant ripples. The nation’s internal oversupply and economic slowdown led to a substantial drop in dairy imports for the second consecutive year.
These elements not only drove down dairy commodity prices but also brought increased uncertainty and volatility, setting a cautious yet hopeful tone for 2024.
Navigating Uncertainty: Rabobank’s Analysis Signals Renewed Optimism for the Dairy Market’s Resurgence
Rabobank’s latest analysis offers a hopeful outlook for the global dairy market, indicating that the worst is over for dairy commodity prices. The report predicts a gradual price rise through 2024, promising stability and growth for an industry struck by recent challenges. Farmers and producers, who have faced fluctuating prices and high costs, can now anticipate a more favorable economic environment. Thus, the story of the global dairy market is evolving from turmoil to resurgence, paving the way for potential growth and new opportunities.
China’s Stabilizing Influence: Opportunities for Global Dairy Importers Amid Steady Demand
China has long been a critical player in the global dairy market, significantly influencing commodity prices with its import patterns. In 2024, China’s import volume is expected to stabilize, a contrast to the substantial shortfalls of the past two years. This steady demand could reduce some of the erratic fluctuations in global markets.
This stabilization provides other importers with a chance to build their stocks. With China’s steady demand, nations might acquire dairy commodities at competitive prices, strengthening their reserves without the pressure of Chinese-driven demand surges. As the market transitions, global importers must keenly observe these signals to manage stock levels strategically, potentially easing the volatility experienced in recent years.
Price Volatility: A Multidimensional Challenge for 2024
Price volatility will be a significant challenge in 2024, influenced by various factors. Geopolitical instability, with regional conflicts and trade disputes, can disrupt supply chains and affect dairy markets through tariffs and export bans.
Energy market fluctuations, driven by changing oil prices and the shift to renewable sources, directly impact dairy production and distribution costs. Irregular energy pricing can lead to unpredictable dairy commodity prices.
Weak global economic conditions also play a role. Economic sluggishness reduces consumer purchasing power and government budgets, affecting discretionary spending on premium dairy products and complicating dairy pricing.
Inflationary pressures further complicate the picture. Rising raw materials, labor, and transportation costs may force dairy producers to increase prices. However, if consumer demand doesn’t support these hikes, the market could experience high production costs and low retail prices.
Navigating the dairy market in 2024 will require careful monitoring of these risks. Industry stakeholders must remain vigilant and develop strategies to mitigate geopolitical, energy, and economic disruptions to maintain stability.
Outlook for Grain and Oilseed Prices: A Double-Edged Sword for Dairy Farmers in 2024
Rabobank’s 2024 forecast suggests a slightly softer outlook for grain and oilseed prices. This is attributed to an expected increase in global feed grain supply, which is favorable for dairy farm margins. Lower feed grain costs are anticipated to support dairy farmers in a volatile market. However, some commodities like palm oil may have more bullish outlooks, potentially adding cost pressures.
Reduced grain and oilseed prices can enhance farmgate margins by lowering a significant variable cost in dairy farming. This relief is vital as dairy producers deal with high operational expenses and fluctuating milk prices. By easing some financial burdens, better feed cost prospects could boost profitability and stabilize production despite uncertain commodity pricing and geopolitical risks.
Strategic Shifts in the EU Dairy Market: Anticipating Milk Price Dynamics and Export Challenges for 2024
Looking to the first half of 2024, the EU dairy market faces complex milk price dynamics and export challenges. Rabobank expects EU milk prices to rise, driven by recent gains in European dairy commodity prices and lower stock levels. Notably, several major dairy processors in northwest Europe have already increased milk prices for late 2023.
However, EU milk deliveries are forecast to decline by 0.5% year-on-year in Q1 and 0.4% in Q2 of 2024, indicating structural weaknesses. The second half of 2024 might see a slight decline of 0.2% year-on-year, suggesting a slow recovery.
EU export price competitiveness remains a concern due to high farmgate milk prices compared to global competitors. Despite these challenges, year-on-year volume growth is expected for Q4 2024, although supply limitations and a modest domestic demand recovery could impact results.
The US Dairy Market’s Path to Recovery: Forecasted Growth and Strategic Adjustments for 2024
The US dairy market is set for a modest recovery in 2024, with a predicted 1% growth in milk production year-on-year. Despite the herd size dropping to 9.37 million in October 2023, the lowest since January 2022, gradual expansion is expected throughout 2024. This growth aims to meet rising domestic and global demand.
Rabobank projections for first half 2024 price Class III milk at $17.78/cwt and Class IV at $19.24/cwt. Full-year estimates are $18.38/cwt for Class III and $20.37/cwt for Class IV, with Class IV consistently priced higher. These forecasts reflect a market transitioning through cautious optimism and strategic adjustments.
New Zealand and Australia: Navigating Production Declines and Export Challenges in 2024
New Zealand’s dairy sector faces a challenging outlook, with full-season production forecasted to decline by up to 2% year-on-year beyond the first half of 2024. This outlook is influenced by cautious budgeting, which affects farming practices and potentially impacts milk flows in the latter half of the season. Animal health management will be essential for a robust start to the 2024-2025 season, but intensified milking efforts due to lower forecasted milk prices could strain herd health.
Despite record farmgate milk prices buffering the sector from global fluctuations in Australia, dairy exports have significantly declined. Export volumes dropped by more than 13% year-on-year in the first three months of the new season, with notable reductions in milk powder ingredients, bulk cheese, and butter. The liquid milk segment also saw a 30% year-on-year decrease. A tight domestic milk supply and high farmgate milk prices relative to significant competitors partly explain this decline.
Additionally, Australia’s butter and cheese imports increased by 43% and 21% year-on-year, respectively. Domestic purchasing behaviors are shifting due to an income squeeze, with dairy purchases outperforming other discretionary food items but still showing some volume declines. The stabilization of Australia’s exportable surplus over 2023-2024 depends on a recovery in milk supply, though export competitiveness remains an immediate concern.
The Bottom Line
The global dairy market is cautiously moving towards recovery in 2024. Rabobank’s observations note an upward price trend, following the softness seen in 2023. Modest milk supply growth, better feed costs, and improved demand, particularly from China, foster this positive outlook.
Significant factors include stabilizing China’s import volume, strategic shifts in the EU, forecasted US milk production growth, and adjustments in New Zealand and Australia. Potential volatility due to geopolitical instability, energy market fluctuations, and macroeconomic uncertainties are also acknowledged. However, with strategic adjustments and risk mitigation, the sector is prepared for a steady recovery.
While challenges remain, signs of recovery are evident. Stakeholders must stay vigilant, adapt strategies, and leverage insights to navigate the complexities of 2024, ensuring resilience and growth in a dynamic market.
Key Takeaways:
- The global dairy market is transitioning from a period of low commodity prices with a projected upward trend through 2024.
- China’s steady import demand is crucial for driving price rallies in the Oceania region, and stabilized import volumes are expected in 2024.
- Price volatility is anticipated due to geopolitical instability, volatile energy markets, and weak macroeconomic conditions.
- A softer grain and oilseed price outlook will improve dairy farm margins globally.
- EU milk prices are anticipated to strengthen in early 2024, yet export competitiveness may remain challenging due to high farmgate milk prices.
- US dairy production shows a slow yet steady growth forecast with specific price estimates for Class III and IV milk segments.
- New Zealand dairy production is expected to decline, while Australia faces reduced export competitiveness amid high domestic farmgate milk prices.
- Overall, the 2024 outlook indicates cautious optimism with potential recovery driven by strategic shifts and stabilizing factors in critical markets.
Summary:
The global dairy market is facing a critical point, with Rabobank’s report indicating that dairy commodity prices are set to rise in 2024. By the end of 2023, the market faced limited new milk supply and sluggish demand, leading to soft commodity pricing. Despite a brief resurgence, global supply growth faltered due to lower milk prices, high costs, and weather disruptions. The market anticipated a Chinese rebalancing but saw significant shortfalls in imports for the second year. Rabobank’s analysis suggests a gradual rise in prices through 2024, promising stability and growth for the industry. However, price volatility will be a significant challenge in 2024, influenced by geopolitical instability, energy market fluctuations, weak global economic conditions, and inflationary pressures.
USDA Proposes Return to ‘Higher-Of’ Method for Fluid Milk Pricing: What It Means for Dairy Farmers
Learn how USDA’s plan to bring back the ‘higher-of’ method for milk pricing might affect farmers. Will this change help dairy producers? Find out more.
The USDA plans to bring back the ‘higher-of’ pricing method for fluid milk, a move intended to modernize federal dairy policy based on a comprehensive 49-day hearing that evaluated numerous industry proposals. This method picks the higher price between Class III (cheese) and Class IV (butter and powder) milk, which could signify a notable shift for the dairy industry. Previously, the 2018 Farm Bill had replaced the ‘higher-of’ system with an ‘average-of’ pricing formula, averaging Class III and IV prices with an additional 74 cents. While switching back might benefit farmers, it also introduces risks like negative producer price differentials in 2020 and 2021. The USDA’s proposal seeks to mitigate these challenges and provide farmers financial gains amidst modern dairy economics’ complexities.
Understanding the Federal Milk Marketing Order (FMMO) System
The Federal Milk Marketing Order (FMMO) system, established in 1937, plays a crucial role in ensuring fair and competitive dairy pricing. It mandates minimum milk prices based on end use, providing price stability for dairy farmers and processors across the U.S. Each FMMO represents a distinct marketing area, coordinating pricing and sales practices.
The ‘higher-of’ pricing method for Class I (fluid) milk has long been integral to this system. It sets the Class I price using the higher Class III (cheese) or Class IV (butter and powder) price, offering a financial safeguard against market volatility. This method ensures dairy producers receive a fair price despite market fluctuations.
However, the 2018 Farm Bill introduced an ‘average-of’ formula, using the average of Class III and IV prices plus 74 cents. While aimed at modernizing milk pricing, this change exposed farmers to greater risk and reduced earnings in volatile periods like 2020 and 2021.
A Marathon Analysis: Unraveling Modern Dairy Policy over 49 Days in Indiana
The marathon hearing in Indiana highlighted the complexities of modern dairy policy. Spanning 49 days, from Aug. 23, 2023, to Jan. 30, it reviewed nearly two dozen industry proposals. This intensive process reflected the sophisticated and multifaceted Federal Milk Marketing Order system as stakeholders debated diverse views and intricate data to influence future milk pricing.
Decoding Dairy Dilemmas: The “Higher-Of” vs. “Average-Of” Pricing Methods
The “higher-of” and “average-of” pricing methods are central to understanding their impact on farmers’ incomes. The “higher-of” process, which uses the greater of the Class III (cheese) price or Class IV (butter and powder) price, has historically provided a safety net against dairy market fluctuations. This method ensured farmers got a better price, potentially safeguarding their income during volatile times. Yet, it increased the risk of negative producer price differentials, which reduced earnings in 2020 and 2021.
On the other hand, the “average-of” method, introduced by the 2018 Farm Bill, calculates the price as the average of Class III and IV prices plus 74 cents. While this seems balanced and predictable, it often fails to deliver the highest financial return when either Class III or IV prices exceed expectations. Farmers have noted that this method might not reflect their costs and economic challenges in volatile markets.
The “higher-of” method often offers better financial outcomes during favorable market conditions but brings increased uncertainty during unstable periods. Conversely, the “average-of” method offers stability but may miss optimal pricing opportunities. This debate within the dairy industry over the best formula to support farmers’ livelihoods continues. Thus, the USDA’s proposal to revert to the “higher-of” method invites mixed feelings among farmers, whose earnings and economic stability are closely tied to these pricing mechanisms.
Examining the Potential Implications of the USDA’s Return to the ‘Higher-Of’ Pricing Method
The USDA’s return to the ‘higher-of’ pricing method, while potentially beneficial, also presents some challenges that the industry needs to be aware of. This approach, favoring the higher Class III (cheese) or Class IV (butter and powder) prices, seems more beneficial than the ‘average-of’ formula. However, deeper insights indicate potential challenges that need to be carefully considered.
The ‘higher-of’ method usually leads to higher fluid milk prices but poses the risk of negative producer price differentials (PPDs). When the Class I price far exceeds the average of the underlying class prices, PPDs can become negative, as seen during the harsh economic times of 2020 and 2021, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Negative PPDs can hit farmers’ financial stability, making it harder to predict income and manage cash flows. This reflects the delicate balance between gaining higher milk prices now and ensuring long-term financial reliability.
The 24-month rolling adjuster for extended-shelf-life milk introduces further uncertainty. Its effect on milk pricing needs to be clarified, potentially causing fluctuating incomes for farmers in this segment.
In conclusion, while the ‘higher-of’ pricing method may offer immediate benefits, risks like negative PPDs and uncertain impacts on extended-shelf-life milk pricing demand careful consideration. Farmers must balance these factors with their financial strategies and long-term sustainability plans.
New Horizons for ESL Milk: Navigating the 24-Month Rolling Adjuster Amidst Market Uncertainties
Under the USDA’s new proposal, regular fluid milk will revert to the ‘higher-of’ pricing. In contrast, extended-shelf-life (ESL) milk will follow a different path. The plan introduces a 24-month rolling adjuster for ESL milk to stabilize prices for these longer-lasting products.
Yet, this change brings uncertainties. Laurie Fischer, CEO of the American Dairy Coalition, questions the impact on farmers. The 24-month adjuster is untested, making it difficult to foresee its effects amid fluctuating market conditions. ESL milk’s unique production and logistics further complicate predictions.
Critics warn that the lack of historical data makes it hard to judge whether this method will help or hurt farmers. There’s concern that it could create more price disparity between regular and ESL milk, potentially straining producers reliant on ESL products. While USDA aims to tailor pricing better, its success will hinge on adapting to real-world market dynamics.
Make Allowance Controversy: Balancing Processor Profitability and Farmer Finances
The USDA also plans to increase the make allowance, a credit to dairy processors to cover rising manufacturing costs. This adjustment aims to ensure processors are adequately compensated to sustain profitability and operational efficiency, which is expected to benefit the entire dairy supply chain.
However, this proposal has drawn substantial criticism. Laurie Fischer, CEO of the American Dairy Coalition, argues that the increased make allowance effectively reduces farmers’ milk checks, disadvantaging them financially.
Pivotal Adjustments and Economic Realignment in Dairy Pricing Formulas
The USDA’s proposal adjusts pricing formulas to match advancements in milk component production since 2000. This update ensures that farmers receive fair compensation for their contributions.
The proposal also revises Class I differential values for all counties to reflect current economic realities. This is essential for maintaining fair compensation for the higher costs of serving the fluid milk market. By reevaluating these differentials, the USDA aims to align the Federal Milk Marketing Order system with today’s economic landscape.
Recalibrating Cheese Pricing: Transition to 40-pound Cheddar Blocks Only
Another critical change in USDA’s proposal is the shift in the cheese pricing system. Monthly average cheese prices will now be based solely on 40-pound cheddar blocks instead of including 500-pound cheddar barrels. This aims to streamline the process and more accurately reflect market values, impacting various stakeholders in the dairy industry.
Initial Reactions from Industry Leaders: Balancing Optimism with Key Concerns
Initial reactions from crucial industry organizations reveal a mix of cautious optimism and significant concerns. The National Milk Producers Federation (NMPF) showed preliminary approval, noting that USDA’s proposal incorporates many of their requested changes. On the other hand, Laurie Fischer, CEO of the American Dairy Coalition, raised concerns about the make allowance updates and the impact of extended-shelf-life milk pricing, fearing it might hurt farmers’ earnings.
Structured Engagement: Navigating the 60-Day Comment Period and Ensuing Voting Procedure
To advance its proposal, USDA will open a 60-day public comment period, allowing stakeholders and the public to share insights, concerns, and support. This process ensures that diverse voices within the dairy industry are heard and considered. Once the comment period ends, USDA will review the feedback to gain a comprehensive understanding of industry perspectives, informing the finalization of the proposal.
Afterward, the USDA will decide based on the collected data and input. However, the process continues with a voting procedure where farmers pooled under each Federal Milk Marketing Order (FMMO) cast votes to approve or reject the proposed amendments. Each Federal Order, representing different regions, will vote individually.
This voting process is crucial, as it directly determines the outcome of the proposed changes. For adoption, a two-thirds majority approval within each Federal Order is required. Suppose a Federal Order fails to meet this threshold. In that case, USDA may terminate the order, leading to significant changes in how milk pricing is managed in that region. This democratic approach ensures that the final policies reflect majority support within the dairy farming community, aiming for fair and sustainable outcomes.
Regional Impacts: Navigating the Complex Landscape of FMMO System Changes
The proposed changes to the Federal Milk Marketing Order (FMMO) system are bound to impact various regions differently, given each Federal Order’s unique economic landscape. Federal Order 1, covering most New England, eastern New York, New Jersey, Delaware, southeastern Pennsylvania, and most of Maryland, may benefit from more favorable fluid milk pricing due to the higher-of method. With significant urban markets, this region could see advantages from updated Class I differential values addressing the increased costs of serving these areas.
On the other hand, Federal Order 33—encompassing western Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Indiana—might witness mixed outcomes. This area has substantial dairy manufacturing, especially in cheese and butter production, which could gain from the new cheese pricing method focusing on 40-pound cheddar blocks. However, the higher make allowance might stir controversy, potentially cutting farmers’ earnings despite adjustments for rising manufacturing costs.
The future remains uncertain for western New York and most of Pennsylvania’s mountain counties, which any Federal Order does not cover. These areas could feel indirect effects from the new proposals, particularly the revised pricing formulas and allowances, which could impact local milk processing and producer price differentials.
While the higher-of-pricing method may benefit farmers by securing better fluid milk prices, the regional impacts will hinge on each Federal Order’s specific economic activities and market structures. Stakeholders must examine the proposed changes closely to gauge their potential benefits and drawbacks.
The Bottom Line
The USDA’s push to reinstate the ‘higher-of’ pricing method for fluid milk marks a decisive moment for the dairy industry. The 49-day hearing in Indiana underscored the complexity of the Federal Milk Marketing Order (FMMO) System. Key aspects include reverting to the ‘higher-of’ pricing from the 2018 ‘average-of’ formula, new pricing for extended-shelf-life milk, and the debate over increased make allowances. Significant updates to pricing formulas and cheese pricing methodologies were also discussed.
The forthcoming vote on these changes is critical. With the power to reshape financial outcomes for dairy farmers and processors, each Federal Order needs two-thirds approval to implement these changes. Balancing modern dairy policy advancements with fair profits for all stakeholders is at the heart of this discourse.
Ultimately, these decisions will affect dairy practices’ economic landscape and sustainability nationwide. This vote is a pivotal moment in the evolution of the American dairy industry, demanding informed participation from all involved.
Key Takeaways:
Summary:
The USDA plans to reintroduce the ‘higher-of’ pricing method for fluid milk, a move aimed at modernizing federal dairy policy. This method, which selects the higher price between Class III and Class IV milk, could be a significant shift for the dairy industry. The 2018 Farm Bill replaced the ‘higher-of’ system with an ‘average-of’ formula, averaging Class III and IV prices plus an additional 74 cents. This change could benefit farmers but also introduce risks like negative producer price differentials (PPDs). The Federal Milk Marketing Order (FMMO) system ensures fair and competitive dairy pricing, and the ‘higher-of’ method usually leads to higher fluid milk prices but also poses the risk of negative producer price differentials (PPDs). Negative PPDs can impact farmers’ financial stability, making it harder to predict income and manage cash flows. The 24-month rolling adjuster for extended-shelf-life milk introduces further uncertainty, potentially causing fluctuating incomes for farmers. The USDA’s proposal to increase the make allowance, a credit to dairy processors, has been met with criticism from industry leaders. The USDA will open a 60-day public comment period to advance its proposal. The proposed changes to the FMMO system will impact various regions differently due to each Federal Order’s unique economic landscape.
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