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Archive for skim milk powder

Navigating Tighter Milk Supplies: How Dairy Farmers Can Stay Competitive Amidst Rising Challenges

Friday, September 6th, 2024

How can dairy farmers stay competitive with tighter milk supplies and new challenges? Are you ready for the evolving dairy market?

Summary: The dairy industry faces tighter milk supplies and lower milk solids output, leading to heightened competition among processors. Recent data shows a significant drop in nonfat dry milk and skim milk powder production, contrasting with a surge in exports, especially to Mexico and the Philippines. Global stockpiles are also feeling the pinch, with European inventory levels shrinking and prices rising across the board. As a dairy farmer, staying informed and adaptable in these dynamic market conditions is crucial. Understanding these trends, you can better navigate the challenges and opportunities ahead. “Milk powder output is 14.6% behind the 2023 pace, marking the slowest start since 2013.”

Data shows a significant drop in nonfat dry and skim milk powder production.
Exports are surging, especially to key markets like Mexico and the Philippines.
Global stockpiles of skim milk powder are shrinking, driving up prices.
Dairy farmers must stay informed and adaptable to dynamic market conditions.
Understanding these industry trends can help tackle future challenges and seize opportunities.

dairy industry challenges, milk supply, milk solids production, nonfat dry milk, skim milk powder, decreased supply, bluetongue illness, NDM exports, competitive environment, rising prices, constrained supply, strong demand, Global Dairy Trade, SMP prices, China, WMP stockpile, financial impact, CME spot prices, market volatility, feed costs

Do you feel the pinch in the dairy industry? You are not alone. A tighter milk supply and decreased milk solids production present challenges, but you, as dairy farmers and processors, have shown resilience in the face of adversity. In July, the combined output of nonfat dry milk (NDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) fell to 184 million pounds, a 10.6% decrease from the previous year. With such significant declines in productivity, it’s evident that we’re all up against unprecedented obstacles. How are you going to navigate these rough waters?

Facing the Reality: The Dairy Market’s Tightening Grip

Let’s take a look at the present dairy market. It’s no news that milk supplies are tightening, and milk solids yield is declining. This year, the combined output of nonfat dry milk (NDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) fell by 10.6% in July, reaching just 184 million pounds compared to the previous year. In the first half of 2024, milk powder output fell 14.6%, the weakest start since 2013.

This drop in output has created a very competitive environment for dairy processors. And this is not simply a local problem but a global concern. For example, the USDA’s Dairy Market News reports that Europe’s SMP supplies are “thin,” spurred by fears of decreased supply owing to bluetongue illness.

Meanwhile, competition heated up as NDM exports rose 10.3% in July compared to the previous year. Key countries like Mexico witnessed a 20% rise in shipments, while exports to the Philippines, our second-largest market, increased by an astonishing 79%. Despite these prominent export figures, manufacturers’ NDM supplies are tight, with 269.7 million pounds recorded as of July—down marginally from June but up 0.4% from last July.

Prices are also rising owing to constrained supply and strong demand. For example, during a recent Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auction, SMP prices rose by 4.5%, hitting their highest since June.

The Global Squeeze: Europe’s Tight Dairy Market

Let us take a step back and look at the bigger picture. Europe, a traditional dairy industry powerhouse, is under pressure. According to the USDA’s Dairy Market News, SMP stockpiles are ‘thin,’ causing purchasers to scramble to obtain items. This shortage is exacerbated by bluetongue illness, which threatens to severely reduce SMP output. This ‘Global Squeeze’ is not simply a European issue but a global concern that could impact the U.S. dairy industry by increasing competition and potentially raising prices.

As stocks deplete, prices rise. At the most recent Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auction, SMP prices increased by 4.5%, reaching their highest point since June. Interestingly, although whole milk powder (WMP) witnessed a tiny decrease, there is a silver lining. China stepped up, purchasing substantial amounts for the third consecutive auction. This is an optimistic indicator that China’s massive WMP stockpile would eventually decline after years of low imports.

How Do These Trends Impact You, the U.S. Dairy Farmer?

Lower milk solids yield, and tighter milk supply have a direct impact on your financial line. With CME spot prices for nonfat dry milk (NDM) at $1.365 per pound, the highest since late 2022, you may find some respite if you can demand these higher prices. However, with avian influenza in central California, there is a genuine potential for future disruptions.

Avian Influenza: This is not simply a bird issue. When it affects a significant dairy-producing region, such as central California, it raises concerns about further limits on milk supply. Any decrease in production will increase prices, impacting your sales and profit margins. The avian influenza outbreak in central California can potentially disrupt the dairy industry by limiting milk supply, leading to increased prices and impacting sales and profit margins.
Cheddar blocks reached a multi-year high of $2.27 per pound, while butter prices of $3.175 per pound highlight the market’s robust demand. While increased pricing may seem appealing, they may also result in more extraordinary input expenses for feed and supplies, reducing your profits.
Whey Powder and Protein Isolates: With whey powder production at its lowest level since 1984, while whey protein isolates outperformed last year’s volumes by 30-34%, you’re probably experiencing a change in demand for higher-value goods. If you’re in the whey manufacturing business, this may be a profitable niche to enter. Despite the challenges, there are opportunities for profit in the current market conditions.
Market Volatility: Despite high spot dairy product prices on the CME, milk futures have not followed pace. September Class III milk futures increased marginally to $22.77 per cwt., but most other futures fell 20 to 30 cents. This unpredictability might make it difficult to plan long-term investments or growth. We understand the challenges you face in navigating this market volatility.
Feed Costs: While silage yields seem fair, worldwide concerns, such as dry weather in Brazil, may influence future grain prices. Any rise in feed prices directly impacts operating expenditures, stressing the need for effective feed management measures.

These shifts provide both possibilities and problems. Higher spot prices may increase income, but the danger of disease outbreaks and fluctuating feed costs needs careful planning. Stay adaptive, and you can economically traverse these challenging times.

Cheese & Butter: The Heavyweights of the Dairy Market

Cheese and butter are at the forefront of the dairy industry, with high demand and pricing.CME spot Cheddar blocks hit a multi-year high, rising to $2.27 per pound. Despite plentiful cheese production exceeding last year’s volumes by 1.9%, cheddar output declined 5.8%, the lowest since 2019. So far this year, U.S. cheddar production is behind by 7.2%, reducing supply and increasing prices. Nonetheless, U.S. cheese exports remained strong, reaching roughly 89 million pounds in July, the most significant number ever.

The butter market continues to be robust, with output rising to 162 million pounds in July, a 2.2% rise over July 2023, and a new monthly record. However, strong demand kept prices rising, with CME spot butter reaching $3.175. Despite the higher churn, high prices indicate a large draw from the market, confirming the strong demand for butter products.

Whey: From Powder to Protein Powerhouse

Whey powder production has dropped significantly, reaching its lowest level since 1984, as producers focus more on high-protein whey concentrates and isolates. Whey protein isolate output increased by 34% in June and 30% in July. This shift in production objectives considerably impacts the supply and demand dynamics of the whey market.

As more whey is diverted into high-protein products, the availability of classic whey powder has decreased. This dip in whey powder manufacturing maintains stockpiles low, as indicated by a 27.7% fall over the previous year, reaching levels not seen since 2012. Prices have increased, with CME spot whey reaching 58.75¢ per pound.

What’s causing this shift? Consumer demand. Americans are becoming more health-conscious, increasing their intake of high-protein food. This isn’t a fad but rather a significant commercial change, resulting in a feedback cycle in which increased demand for protein isolates limits the supply of ordinary whey powder, pushing up costs.

As a consequence, the market rewards those that are fast to adjust. If you are a dairy farmer, this might imply more significant whey product margins and more difficult choices about where to focus your production efforts. Navigating these changes successfully may help you remain afloat and grow in this fast-changing environment.

Mixed Fortunes in Dairy and Feed Markets: Opportunities Amidst Uncertainty

Milk futures seem unable to keep up with dairy markets’ rapid growth. Despite new cheese price highs, which pushed September Class III to a high of $22.77 a cwt., the rest of the Class III and Class IV futures did not follow. This week, most contracts dropped between 20˼ and 30ɼ. The gap emphasizes an important point: although cheese prices impact Class III futures, maintaining upward momentum is difficult without strong demand.

We notice a mix of good and warning indicators in the feed markets. Silage choppers are in operation, and yields are encouraging. Expect robust grain and soybean crops, which will restrict margins as prices attract new demand. Ethanol output rose 3.3% yearly in July and August, suggesting more significant activity in connected markets.

Furthermore, beef output is robust, with cattle grown to record weights, and the United States remains the most economical market for maize and soybeans. Despite a period of low sales, the market is waking up. However, fears remain over Brazil’s dry period. Persistent dryness may delay planting and limit production potential, impacting market behavior. This week, December corn increased by 5 cents to $4.0625 per bushel, while November soybeans rose a few cents to $10.02. Soybean meal remained solid at $324 per ton, up $11.

Although the dairy market is mixed for milk futures, the feed markets provide both possibilities and hazards. As you navigate these stormy seas, watch demand changes and external variables, such as weather conditions, which impact worldwide supply.

Stay Agile: Mastering Global Market Dynamics

Understanding global market dynamics is critical to keeping ahead. International trade rules, tariffs, and worldwide events considerably impact the local dairy industry. Tariffs, for example, may raise the cost of dairy exports, lowering profit margins and restricting market access. Disease outbreaks and political instability may disrupt supply networks and drive up costs.

To reduce these effects, consider remaining up to speed on current trade regulations and foreign market developments. Diversifying your market base might also be beneficial. If one market is experiencing a decline, another may have steady or growing demand. Building strong connections with local and foreign customers may offer a buffer against market changes. Furthermore, boosting productivity and lowering farm expenses make your goods more competitive, even when global circumstances are challenging.

Adapting to These Market Shifts Requires Forward-Thinking Strategies

Adapting to these market shifts requires forward-thinking strategies. Here are some practical tips for staying ahead:

Diversify Your Product Line
If you haven’t already, this is an excellent moment to explore diversifying your product offering. Introducing new goods such as flavored milk, yogurts, and gourmet cheeses may help you enter niche markets. According to the USDA, value-added items often command higher pricing, making your business more robust to market swings [USDA].
Improve Operational Efficiency
In tight marketplaces, you must streamline your processes. Consider investing in devices that will increase milk output and feed efficiency. Automated milking methods, for example, save labor expenses while increasing production. Programs such as Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) may offer financial safety nets [FSA].
Explore New Markets
Global marketplaces are developing, and there are chances to broaden your reach. Exports to nations like Mexico and the Philippines have increased, indicating good opportunities for American dairy producers. Keep an eye on foreign trade rules and consider creating collaborations with export organizations to help you traverse these markets more efficiently.
Adapt to Consumer Trends
Consumers are increasingly seeking responsibly produced and organic items. You can enter this booming market by implementing sustainable practices and obtaining organic certifications. Not only does this command a higher price, but it also boosts your brand’s reputation.
Leverage Data and Analytics
Use data analytics to make sound judgments. Tools that gather and analyze data on feed efficiency, milk output, and herd health may provide valuable insights for optimizing your operations. Implementing predictive analytics may help you anticipate milk production patterns and make proactive modifications.

Embracing these methods will help your dairy farm prosper in the face of market pressures. Remember that long-term sustainability requires flexibility and proactive behavior.

The Bottom Line

The dairy market is undergoing considerable changes. Lower milk solid production and tighter supply have increased competition and pricing. While the worldwide market is under pressure due to low inventory levels and external factors such as illnesses, U.S. exports remain reasonably robust. The cheese, butter, and whey markets exhibit various patterns, which affect supply and demand in multiple ways. Meanwhile, shifting feed and grain prices provide both obstacles and possibilities for dairy producers.

As you manage these complicated dynamics, examine how you may adapt your strategy to survive and succeed in this changing market. Stay alert, knowledgeable, and proactive to capitalize on new possibilities and prevent threats.

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Categories : Dairy Markets

New Zealand Dairy Boom: Record Milk Collections and Rising Prices Boost Farmer Profits

Tuesday, September 3rd, 2024

New Zealand‘s dairy boom is boosting farmer profits with record milk collections and rising prices. Curious about the latest trends? Read on.

Summary: Seeing your milk collections rise this winter? You’re not alone. Due to favorable weather conditions, New Zealand’s dairy production has hit an all-time high for July. Milk volumes are up by 8.4%, and milk solids have also seen a 9.2% increase. This is great news for dairy farmers, especially with Fonterra upping its projected farmgate milk price to NZ$8.50/kg of milk solids. The industry is diversifying beyond whole milk powder (WMP) to focus more on skim milk powder (SMP), butter, and cheese, catering to evolving global demands and lessening reliance on the Chinese market. Challenges lie ahead, but profit opportunities have never looked more promising.

New Zealand’s dairy production surged to an all-time high for July, with milk volumes up 8.4% and milk solids by 9.2%.
Fonterra has increased the projected farmgate milk price to NZ$8.50/kg of milk solids.
The dairy industry is diversifying its products to focus more on SMP, butter, and cheese, reducing its dependency on the Chinese market.
This diversification aligns with global demand changes and presents new profit opportunities for dairy farmers.

New Zealand dairy, milk collections, record-breaking, farmgate milk price, profitability, Kiwi dairy producers, Global Dairy Trade, GDT auctions, skim milk powder, whole milk powder, dairy industry, USDA study, butter production, cheese output, Chinese demand, product mix, market opportunities.

In July, New Zealand had record-breaking milk collections, with volumes surpassing 310 thousand metric tons, up an impressive 8.4% from the previous year, and milk solids collections beating last year’s records by 9.2%. This spike makes July 2023 the most critical milk-producing month in history. Fonterra increased the predicted farmgate milk price by 50% to NZ$8.50/kg of milk solids, which is higher than the national average cost of milk production. This presents an ideal chance for dairy farmers to increase profitability. Understanding these patterns will help you make more educated choices and increase profits. Have you considered how this growing tendency may affect your dairy farm?

Month	Milk Collections (Metric Tons)	Percent Change (Year-on-Year)
June	280,000	+7.5%
July	310,000	+8.4%
August	330,000	+9.0%

Have you noticed a surge in your milk collections this winter?

July marked a historic milestone for Kiwi dairy producers. We achieved record levels with a remarkable 8.4% increase in milk collections over the previous year. This wasn’t just a minor uptick; it was the highest milk production ever recorded for July. Let’s take a moment to celebrate this significant achievement!

While June and July are typically slow, this year’s results defied expectations, setting a new benchmark for offseason output. These statistics underscore the resilience and effectiveness of New Zealand’s dairy sector. They are a strong indicator of the potential for future profitability and a prosperous season ahead, instilling confidence in our industry’s strength.

In New Zealand, June and July are typically the off-season for dairy production. This time enables cows to rest and recover before calving in the spring. Milk output often decreases during these months since most cows are dry. However, this year, a pleasant winter on the North Island has changed this tendency. Milk output started to rise sooner than predicted, providing farmers with a much-needed boost during a period when production often slows.

The Price-Upswing Farmers Have Been Waiting For

Following the August Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auctions, the dairy industry is optimistic. The surge in milk powder prices has sparked a wave of enthusiasm across the sector. We are poised for higher returns and improved season prospects with Fonterra’s 50% increase in the expected farmgate milk price, reaching a midpoint of NZ$8.50 per kilogram of milk solids. This is the price upswing we’ve been waiting for, and it’s time to seize the opportunities it presents.

However, the recent GDT auction had mixed outcomes. While skim milk powder (SMP) prices rose to their highest level since mid-June, whole milk powder (WMP) values declined. This mixed conclusion complicates planning in the following months.

New Zealand’s dairy industry is branching out.

The USDA’s most recent study expects a 6% reduction in whole milk powder (WMP) production this year. This decrease is sometimes good news. Instead, it allows for increased production of other dairy products. For example, skim milk powder (SMP) output is expected to grow by 9%, while butter production will increase by 3%.

These transitions occur at an appropriate moment. As demand for milk powder in China declines, the worldwide market for cheese grows. The USDA predicts that cheese output in New Zealand, which increased by 7% in 2023, will remain stable this year. This diversity helps to reduce risks and grasp new possibilities.

Take mozzarella, for example. Since its launch in December 2023, its price has increased by 28% at the most recent GDT auction. This surge indicates a good trend that may help balance the uneven results in the milk powder markets. Diversifying your product mix might help you adapt and profit from changing market needs.

Shifting Your Focus? You’re in Good Company

Have you found yourself having to adjust your production focus? You are not alone. Many dairy producers in New Zealand are pivoting to capitalize on new possibilities created by shifting global preferences. The industry is adjusting its product selection in response to a significant drop in Chinese demand for milk powder.

Take cheese, for example. The worldwide demand for cheese has never been greater, and it’s paying off. Mozzarella prices reached new highs during the last GDT auction, up 28% from the first sale in December 2023. This demand is a dazzling indication of fresh earnings waiting to be realized.

This strategy move is more than simply responding to current market developments; it is also about capitalizing on possible long-term profits. Diversifying into a more extensive product mix will allow you to position your firm to survive in the face of shifting demand. The stats speak for themselves.

Balancing Opportunities with Potential Challenges

While the recent jump in milk collections and projected price increases create a pleasant image, possible difficulties remain. Have you considered the consequences of shifting global demand? Dairy markets, notably in China, significantly affect pricing and demand. An unexpected decrease in Chinese demand for milk powder might interrupt the upward trend.

Then there’s the unpredictable beast called climate change. Although this winter has been mild, future seasons may not be so merciful. Unseasonal weather patterns may disrupt grazing conditions and milk production cycles, posing challenges for even the best-prepared farms.

Regulatory changes are another essential concern. New rules regarding animal welfare, environmental pollution, and commerce may all result in higher expenses or operational adjustments. Staying ahead of these regulatory developments necessitates changing your procedures and making financial investments.

In the fast-paced world of dairy production, it is critical to balance anticipated obstacles with present optimism. By being watchful and adaptable, you can overcome these obstacles while capitalizing on opportunities.

The Future of New Zealand’s Dairy Industry Looks Promising, But There Are Key Points You Should Keep an Eye On

Experts expect milk output to expand steadily over the next several years by 3-5% [Global Dairy Report]. This expansion may pave the path for increased total revenues, particularly if global demand continues to be robust.

Price patterns: Recent patterns suggest that milk prices are erratic but typically increasing. Rabobank analysts predict that the global milk price will range between USD 3.90 and 4.50 per kg by mid-2024, depending on various economic variables and trade dynamics. Keeping a careful watch on these industry developments might provide significant insights into increasing profit margins.

Market Opportunities: Diversification is a critical approach. Cheese, butter, and skim milk powder are becoming more popular worldwide. For example, the cheese industry alone is predicted to increase by about 7% yearly [Dairy Industry Analysis]. China’s changing milk powder demand creates attractive opportunities in Southeast Asia and Africa.

Expert Forecasts: “New Zealand’s dairy sector is robust and adapting well to global trends.” To maintain profitability, the emphasis should be on value-added goods and expanding into new markets, according to Michael Anderson, a prominent analyst at USDA [USDA]. Embracing innovation and being current on market projections will help you remain ahead of the competition.

New Zealand dairy producers may look forward to a sustainable and lucrative future using these insights and strategically managing production and marketing plans.

The Bottom Line

The dairy business in New Zealand is exhibiting encouraging signals of expansion and promise. With milk collections at record highs and Fonterra’s favorable pricing revisions, there is potential for increasing profitability. Diversifying products like cheese and butter helps meet shifting global needs and mitigate market swings.

Now, more than ever is the time to explore how these trends may help your business. Investigate strategies to leverage increased milk collections and broaden your product offerings. Invest carefully in infrastructure and technology to improve efficiency and productivity. By remaining knowledgeable and adaptive, you can position your farm to succeed in changing market conditions.

Optimism is in the air; use this opportunity to prepare and make the most of the future. Monitor market developments, be adaptable, and plan for success.

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Categories : Dairy Markets

Tags : butter production, cheese output, Chinese demand, Dairy Industry, farmgate milk price, GDT auctions, global dairy trade, Kiwi dairy producers, milk collections, New Zealand dairy, product mix, Profitability, record-breaking, skim milk powder, USDA study, whole milk powder

U.S. Milk Production Plummets to Historic Lows

Friday, August 23rd, 2024

Find out why U.S. milk production is at historic lows and what you, as a dairy farmer, need to know to get through this crisis. How will this impact your farm’s future?

Summary: U.S. milk production has been declining for 13 straight months, with June and July seeing historic drops of 1.7% and 0.4%, respectively. As the dairy herd shrinks and ages, spot milk prices have soared due to strong demand from bottlers and processors. Global factors, including active Chinese participation in the Global Dairy Trade auctions, have further complicated market dynamics by pushing milk powder prices higher. U.S. cheese inventories are at their lowest since 2020, and overall dairy product prices remain volatile. Dairy farmers face significant pressures but have opportunities to mitigate these challenges through strategic herd management, quality feed, and market awareness.

U.S. milk production has faced a decline for over a year, creating historic drops in mid-2023.
The shrinking and aging dairy herd has resulted in higher spot milk prices.
Strong demand from bottlers and processors is driving up milk prices.
Increased participation from Chinese buyers in Global Dairy Trade auctions has pushed milk powder prices higher.
U.S. cheese inventories are at their lowest levels since 2020, reflecting volatility in dairy product prices.
Dairy farmers can combat these pressures with strategic herd management, quality feed, and staying informed about market trends.

milk output, United States, record reduction, production, decline, USDA, dairy herd, growth, managing herds, cull rates, older cows, milk production, stall, rising demand, valuable commodity, spot milk prices, bottlers, processors, milk powder costs, CME spot nonfat dry milk, whole milk powder, skim milk powder, global demand, Chinese purchasers, Global Dairy Trade auctions, milk powder stocks

Milk output in the United States is on track for a record reduction, with production falling for 13 months—the most extended period in modern history. The USDA reported a 1.7% decline in milk output in June, followed by a 0.4% fall in July. What does this imply for your farm and the future of dairying in America?

Month	2023 Milk Output (million pounds)	2024 Milk Output (million pounds)	Year-over-Year Change (%)
June	18,575	18,260	-1.7%
July	18,430	18,360	-0.4%
August	18,800	18,700 (est.)	-0.5% (est.)

America’s Dairy Slump: Facing the Hard Truths of Historic Milk Production Declines

The present status of U.S. milk production is distinguished by unprecedented decreases, with a 1.7% loss in June and a 0.4% dip in July compared to last year. These numbers highlight the most severe two-year slump in decades. The USDA has updated its projections, indicating a lower dairy herd of 9.325 million cows in July, down 43,000 from July 2023. This diminishing and aged herd cannot support considerable growth despite seasonal mild temperatures.

Feeling the Squeeze: How Declining Milk Production Hits Dairy Farmers Hard

Month	Number of Milking Cows (2024)	Number of Milking Cows (2023)	Year-over-Year Change
January	9,368,000	9,392,000	-24,000
February	9,355,000	9,385,000	-30,000
March	9,325,000	9,371,000	-46,000
April	9,312,000	9,362,000	-50,000
May	9,300,000	9,354,000	-54,000
June	9,290,000	9,338,000	-48,000
July	9,325,000	9,368,000	-43,000
August 1-23	9,332,000	9,376,000	-44,000

So, how does the drop in milk output affect dairy producers where it counts the most? Let’s dig right in.

First and foremost, sustaining herd numbers becomes an uphill task. Dairy producers find it more challenging to manage their herds at ideal size. The USDA reported a 43,000 head reduction in milk cows from July 2023 to July 2024. Maintaining herd numbers has become a difficult challenge. Dairy producers need help managing their herds at appropriate levels. The USDA announced that the number of milk cows had decreased by 43,000. That’s a considerable drop, making it challenging to build up output.

Furthermore, higher cull rates exacerbate the situation. Farmers have little option but to cull their older, less productive cows. But here’s the kicker: the surviving cows aren’t growing any younger. According to the USDA, the dairy herd is aging, and older cows produce less milk. What are the consequences? A less efficient herd is failing to satisfy demand.

The actual data provide a striking picture. For the last 13 months, milk production in the United States has been lower than in the previous year. USDA figures indicated a 1.7% loss in June, which eased somewhat to a 0.4% drop in July. This protracted fall is not a fluke but a pattern with far-reaching consequences (USDA Milk Production Report, 2024).

So, what are farmers to do? Producers are working to fill every stall and reduce cull rates. However, the truth remains: a decreasing, aged herd cannot satisfy rising demand, making milk and other dairy products a valuable and costly commodity.

Have you felt the pinch yet? You are not alone. But knowledge is power, and knowing these obstacles is the first step toward overcoming them.

Spot Milk Prices Soar: Bottlers and Processors in a Tug-of-War

Month	2024 Price ($/cwt)	2023 Price ($/cwt)	Year-over-Year Change (%)
January	20.75	22.10	-6.1%
February	21.00	22.00	-4.5%
March	21.50	21.75	-1.1%
April	22.25	21.50	3.5%
May	23.00	21.90	5.0%
June	22.75	22.30	2.0%
July	23.25	22.50	3.3%
August (up to 23rd)	23.50	22.75	3.3%

Right now, the market is congested and busy. Spot milk commands a significant premium above Class III in the central area, ranging from $2.25 to $3.00 per cwt. The increase in spot milk prices is causing processors and bottlers to feel the squeeze.

On top of that, milk powder costs are rising. This week, CME spot nonfat dry milk (NDM) rose 2.75¢ to $1.2825 per pound, the most since January 2023. Whole milk powder (WMP) increased by 7.2% to its highest level since October 2022, while skim milk powder (SMP) recovered by 4%.

As schools reopen, the demand for milk in meal programs increases, and bottlers vie furiously to get supply. This ‘milk tug-of-war’ forces other processors to operate more lightly, complicating operations and raising expenses. Understanding this dynamic can help you anticipate and plan for potential disruptions in the supply chain.

Global Demand: China’s Milk Powder Purchases Spark U.S. Market Surge

The dairy market in the United States is heavily influenced by global demand. Recently, increased activity from Chinese purchasers has played a vital role. After more than a year of modest purchases, China’s participation in the August Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auctions pointed to decreased milk powder stocks in the nation. This rise in Chinese demand increased prices for whole milk powder (WMP) by 7.2% and skim milk powder (SMP) by 4%.

Such worldwide interest directly influences U.S. milk powder pricing, resulting in significant profits. For example, spot nonfat dry milk (NDM) prices increased to $1.2825 a pound, the highest level since January 2023. This considerable growth may be attributed to rising imports from China.

This increasing overseas demand improves the US dairy business as a whole. Export sales contribute considerably to overall market dynamics, mitigating the impact of decreases in local production. As Chinese whey imports increased by 13.2% in July and WMP imports behind the previous year’s amount by just 4.6%, US producers found a confident customer, helping to stabilize prices in the face of local concerns.

Butter and Cheese Frenzy: What’s Happening?

Let’s discuss the butter and cheese markets. Butter stocks fell quicker than expected in July, although there was still 7.4% more butter on hand at the end of the month than a year earlier. Prices fell, with CME spot butter down a cent to $3.13 per pound. Despite this, butter purchasers are still on edge, swapping over 100 cargoes in Chicago last week and another 54 vehicles on the spot market this week.

Cheese supplies are also under strain. Historically, cheese stockpiles in the United States grow by around 30 million pounds between the end of February and the end of July. This year, however, inventories have fallen by 50 million pounds. On July 31, the end-of-month cheese inventory was 1.4 billion pounds, the lowest since late 2020 and 5.8% lower than the previous year. CME spot Cheddar barrels closed at $2.10 per pound, a 15.5 percent loss, while blocks finished at $2.0375, a 6.25 percent decrease.

Navigating the Storm: Proactive Strategies for Dairy Farmers in Turbulent Times

Facing this daunting scenario, dairy farmers need proactive strategies to navigate these turbulent times. Here are some actionable tips to help you weather the storm:

Maximize Efficiency in Herd Management

Consider implementing advanced herd management software. These tools can accurately monitor each cow’s health, productivity, and breeding cycles. As herd sizes decrease (down to 9.325 million cows in July), ensuring every cow performs optimally is vital.

“Utilizing data-driven technologies can significantly enhance herd efficiency and milk yield,” says John Smith, dairy management expert at FarmTech Innovations.

Invest in Quality Feed

The nutritional value of your feed directly impacts milk production. Opt for high-quality, balanced diets catering to your herd’s needs. Grain prices have dipped (December corn closed at $3.91 per bushel; November soybeans at $9.37), making it an excellent opportunity to stock up on feed.

Monitor Cow Comfort

Stress can severely affect milk production. Ensure your cows have comfortable bedding, ample space, and a stable environment. Regularly check ventilation and temperature controls, significantly as temperatures drop seasonally, boosting milk output.

Strategize Cull Rates

Although culling less productive cows is necessary, consider a more selective approach. Focus on maintaining a younger, more efficient herd to maximize milk production per cow.

Optimize Milk Production

Studies show that certain practices, like frequent milking and ensuring cows have constant access to clean water, can increase yield. Remember to periodically review your milking equipment to ensure it’s working efficiently.

Tap into Market Opportunities

With spot milk prices soaring (trading at $2.25 to $3.00 per cwt over Class III), it’s a prime time to renegotiate contracts or seek new buyers willing to pay a premium. Consider diversifying your products if possible – cheese and butter prices fluctuate. Still, high-protein dairy products like whey are currently in demand.

“Farmers who adapt quickly to market shifts by diversifying their product lines often find more stable income streams,” advises Laura Anderson, market analyst at AgriMarket Insights.

Stay Informed and Collaborative

Keep up with industry reports and trends. Join local farmers’ groups or online forums to share insights and strategies. Sometimes, the best advice comes from fellow farmers who understand your unique challenges.

Remember, while the current landscape seems challenging, intelligent and proactive management can help you survive and thrive. Keep experimenting with different strategies and stay abreast of market trends to make informed decisions.

The Bottom Line

Milk output in the United States is declining at a record rate, posing substantial challenges for dairy producers. The problems are significant, with milk supply behind prior-year volumes by more than a year, fewer cows in the herd, and higher spot milk prices. Global demand movements, notably from China, and shifting dairy product prices add an extra complication. Maximizing herd efficiency, investing in quality feed, and monitoring cow comfort are critical for navigating these tumultuous times. Strategic market actions are also necessary. Staying educated and collaborative within the industry might offer the competitive advantage required.

Given these unprecedented obstacles, how will you adjust to guarantee the viability of your dairy farm?

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Categories : Dairy Markets

Understanding the Global Skim Milk Powder Market in 2024 – What the Trends Mean for Dairy Farmers

Thursday, July 25th, 2024

How will 2024’s global skim milk powder trends impact your dairy farm? Are you ready for these changes and new opportunities?

The worldwide skim milk powder (SMP) industry is currently undergoing significant changes, influenced by various factors such as international trade dynamics, supply chain disruptions, and shifting dairy consumption trends. However, amidst these developments, the SMP industry presents a promising opportunity for substantial growth. Understanding these patterns is crucial for dairy producers, as SMP is a significant export commodity and a staple in home markets. This study will dissect the current state of the SMP industry, providing an overview of the main trends, opportunities, and challenges for 2024. Readers can expect a comprehensive understanding of how global market changes may impact their operations and decision-making processes, instilling a sense of optimism for the future.

Navigating Global SMP Market Diversification: A Closer Look at Key Players and Emerging Trends

The worldwide skim milk powder (SMP) industry is experiencing tremendous diversity and instability. Big players like the United States, New Zealand, and the European Union dominate the production landscape, with each area contributing significantly to the global supply chain. As of 2024, the United States alone is expected to generate an extra 1% of fluid milk, which may supplement its SMP supply. This gives American dairy producers an edge in fierce foreign competition.

However, Australia provides a different situation, with a predicted 1% rise in fluid milk output, indicating possible development in SMP exports. This favorable prognosis gives a light of optimism to market dynamics, notwithstanding the troubles encountered by other areas.

On the import front, rising Asian and Middle Eastern economies continue to have strong demand for SMP. This transition is driven by increased disposable incomes and shifting dietary choices favoring dairy-based goods. However, logistical challenges, particularly cross-border traffic congestion on important trade routes, offer substantial vulnerabilities and potentially disrupt supply chains if not managed correctly.

Modern market trends also show a rising customer preference for health-conscious goods, which has prompted producers to broaden their offers and concentrate on high-protein, low-fat dairy products. Sustainability practices are becoming more critical as customers and regulatory authorities strive for more environmentally friendly manufacturing processes, transforming global operating plans.

Understanding the Global Skim Milk Powder (SMP) Market in 2024: A Key to Navigating Dynamics, Challenges, and Opportunities

Trend	Impact on Dairy Farms	Additional Insights
11% growth in SMP output	Increased supply could pressure prices	Consider diversifying product offerings to manage market volatility
3% increase in exports	Opportunities for U.S. dairy farms to expand market reach	Focus on enhancing export quality standards to stay competitive
Decline in milk production	Potential strain on SMP production and supply chain	Adopt efficient farming practices to mitigate production challenges
Weakened demand from Asia	Reduced export revenue for SMP	Explore alternative markets to offset demand fluctuations
Regulatory changes	Impact on inter-state commerce and market accessibility	Stay updated with policy changes and adapt quickly

In 2024, the worldwide Skim Milk Powder (SMP) market is expected to undergo a dynamic transition driven by several crucial variables impacting supply and demand. Notably, the predicted 3% increase in butter output, driven by growing demand for high-fat dairy products, directly influences SMP supply. As more milk is directed toward butter and cheese production, the supply of SMP may tighten, putting upward pressure on pricing. However, the anticipated 1% rise in fluid milk output in the United States, which is expected to generate an extra 1% of fluid milk, may supplement its SMP supply, providing a marginal boost to milk available for powder manufacture. Understanding these characteristics is critical to making sound judgments in the SMP market.

Exports of SMP are expected to climb by 3% to 838,000 tonnes, demonstrating strong worldwide demand despite hurdles such as tariff uncertainty and changing trade policy. This predicted export expansion emphasizes the critical need to maintain competitive pricing and high-quality standards to gain and retain overseas markets.

Price predictions for dairy products in 2024 indicate a moderate 1 to 3 percent rise, putting SMP in a reasonably stable inflationary environment compared to other food categories. This steadiness, despite possible market turbulence, demonstrates the robustness of the SMP market. However, market volatility must be addressed, especially given legislative attempts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and water consumption, which affect manufacturing costs. The formation of initiatives such as the Dairy Methane Action Alliance represents industry-wide efforts to align with global sustainability goals, which, while potentially increasing short-term expenses, aim to ensure long-term viability and market acceptance, providing reassurance about market stability.

By 2024, the SMP market will face supply challenges due to increased milk diversion to fat-based products and intense worldwide demand. Price stability, impacted by moderate inflation rates, changing regulatory environments, and intelligent international trade policies, will be critical in successfully navigating future market developments.

The Shifting Dynamics of the Global Skim Milk Powder (SMP) Market in 2024

The evolving dynamics of the worldwide Skim Milk Powder (SMP) market in 2024 will have significant consequences for the US dairy industry. These developments may be a double-edged sword, bringing possibilities and difficulties that need our full attention and deliberate response.

First, changes in export demand have a considerable impact. With nations like Australia dramatically increasing their cheese manufacturing capacity, competition in the global market heats up. This implies that we urgently need to improve our value proposition by enhancing product quality, broadening our offerings, and utilizing the “Made in the USA” brand to carve out a distinct niche. Understanding and aligning with global customer tastes may help us sustain a competitive advantage in the face of increasing competition.

The expected 1 to 3 percent rise in dairy product prices is a mixed bag. On the one hand, increasing pricing may boost profits, which is particularly important when operating expenses rise. However, price volatility remains a significant worry. Unpredictable pricing fluctuations strain our financial planning and jeopardize our long-term viability. This volatility could impact the SMP market, potentially leading to changes in demand and supply. Adopting solid financial strategies and hedging methods may reduce certain risks and provide a cushion against market swings.

Furthermore, when multinational companies increase output, there is a danger of market saturation. This could lead to increased competition and potentially lower prices in the SMP market. Identifying new markets and diversifying export destinations might assist in mitigating risk and minimizing reliance on old markets that may become oversupplied. Closer to home, there is a potential for innovation in our local market. Expanding value-added product lines, capitalizing on growing consumer preferences such as clean-label and high-protein alternatives, and improving supply chain efficiency all create significant domestic development opportunities.

Finally, empowering ourselves via invention and cooperation is both advantageous and essential. Forming cooperatives, investing in on-farm technology, and conducting joint research may all lead to on-farm solutions that improve productivity and sustainability. Staying current on global trends and being proactive rather than reactive will be critical in navigating these turbulent seas.

While the worldwide SMP market in 2024 will have unique difficulties, it will also provide opportunities for those willing to pivot wisely and exploit our capabilities. We must remain adaptable, knowledgeable, and unified to capitalize on these global trends.

Strategic Actions for Navigating a Transforming SMP Market: Preparing for the FutureAs dairy farmer managers looking to navigate the evolving SMP market, here are some practical strategies to keep your operations resilient and profitable:

Diversify Product Offerings: Taking Control of Your Market PresenceImprove Production Efficiency: Invest in technology and farming practices that enhance productivity. Precision farming tools, automated milking systems, and sustainable farming techniques can significantly reduce costs and improve yields. Furthermore, collaborating with initiatives like the Dairy Methane Action Alliance can help lower methane emissions and enhance environmental compliance.
Explore New Markets: Stay ahead of market trends by exploring emerging markets, particularly regions with growing demand for dairy products. Strengthen export strategies and establish partnerships with international distributors. For instance, Australia’s rising fluid milk production suggests opportunities for collaboration and exchange of best practices.
Focus on Workforce Development: Address labor challenges by investing in workforce training and development. Empower your team with knowledge about sustainable farming practices and new technologies. A well-trained workforce adaptable to market changes seamlessly integrates production and product diversity improvements.
Adopt Sustainable Practices: Embrace sustainability as a core operational principle. Implement measures to reduce your carbon footprint, such as optimizing feed efficiency or adopting renewable energy sources. Consumers and international markets increasingly favor sustainable products, which can provide a competitive edge.

By implementing these strategies, dairy farmers can better manage the uncertainties of the SMP market, ensuring long-term growth and sustainability for their operations.

The Bottom Line

The Skim Milk Powder (SMP) market will face opportunities and constraints in 2024. Dairy producers must be attentive and adaptive. We examined how expanding demand, sustainability, and shifting rules influence the market. Staying updated is not only beneficial; it is necessary for competitiveness and profitability.

Key insights include:

Making sustainability a primary goal.
Using modern technologies such as ERPs.
Analyzing labor market developments.

Regional production trends, export dynamics, and regulatory frameworks play essential roles. Those who adjust proactively will gain an advantage. The future is hopeful and challenging, with growth, nutrition, and innovation fueling industry confidence.

Stay involved, informed, and proactive. The future of dairy farming seems promising for those willing to develop. Let us use these ideas, embrace change, and drive the sector to higher sustainability and profitability.

Key Takeaways:

Divergent Trends: The SMP market is experiencing both growth and contraction in different regions, influenced by varying consumer preferences and economic conditions.
Economic Factors: Global economic uncertainties, such as inflation and currency fluctuations, are expected to impact SMP pricing and demand.
Technological Innovations: Advancements in dairy processing technologies are enhancing production efficiency and product quality, offering new opportunities for market players.
Regulatory Changes: Changing regulations and trade policies in major dairy-producing countries could significantly affect export-import dynamics.
Sustainability Focus: There is a growing emphasis on sustainable dairy farming practices, which could influence consumer buying behaviors and market demand.

Summary:

The global skim milk powder (SMP) industry is experiencing significant changes due to international trade dynamics, supply chain disruptions, and shifting dairy consumption trends. Key players like the United States, New Zealand, and the European Union dominate the production landscape, contributing significantly to the global supply chain. As of 2024, the United States is expected to generate an extra 1% of fluid milk, supplementing its SMP supply. Australia is predicted to develop SMP exports with a 1% rise in fluid milk output. Rising Asian and Middle Eastern economies have strong demand for SMP due to increased disposable incomes and shifting dietary choices. However, logistical challenges, particularly cross-border traffic congestion, offer vulnerabilities and potentially disrupt supply chains. Modern market trends show a rising customer preference for health-conscious goods, prompting producers to broaden their offerings and focus on high-protein, low-fat dairy products. Sustainability practices are becoming more critical as customers and regulatory authorities strive for more environmentally friendly manufacturing processes. By 2024, the SMP market will face supply challenges due to increased milk diversion to fat-based products and intense worldwide demand. Price stability, impacted by moderate inflation rates, changing regulatory environments, and intelligent international trade policies, will be critical in navigating future market developments.

Learn more:

Categories : Dairy Markets

Understanding the Drop in Southeast Asia’s Dairy Imports from the U.S.

Wednesday, July 17th, 2024

Learn why Southeast Asia is buying less dairy from the U.S. despite economic growth. Is it due to a stronger dollar and no trade deals? Find out more.

Despite robust economic development, U.S. dairy exports to Southeast Asia have unexpectedly decreased. In the first five months of 2024, exports to the Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, and Singapore declined 5%, reaching 440.7 million pounds, compared to the same time in 2023. This is the lowest export volume to the area since 2019, with significant reductions in nonfat dry milk and lactose exports. This decrease is surprising considering the region’s outstanding economic development, such as Vietnam’s 6.4% GDP spike in the first half of 2024 and the Philippines’ 5.7% GDP gain in Q1. Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Singapore all saw substantial increases.

Country	NDM Exports (2023) in pounds	NDM Exports (2024) in pounds	Lactose Exports (2023) in pounds	Lactose Exports (2024) in pounds
Philippines	50,000,000	46,000,000	16,000,000	13,500,000
Indonesia	40,000,000	37,000,000	18,000,000	15,200,000
Vietnam	30,000,000	27,500,000	14,000,000	11,500,000
Malaysia	25,000,000	23,000,000	12,000,000	10,000,000
Thailand	20,000,000	18,000,000	10,800,000	9,000,000
Singapore	10,000,000	9,700,000	9,500,000	8,600,000

The Staggering Decline of U.S. Nonfat Dry Milk Exports to Southeast Asia

The decrease in nonfat dry milk (NDM) and skim milk powder shipments to Southeast Asia is notable. USDA figures reveal an 8% decrease to 211.2 million pounds in the first five months of 2024 compared to the same time in 2023. This drop is part of a long-term pattern, with US NDM exports being flat since 2020. According to Betty Berning, an analyst with the Daily Dairy Report, the fall is partly due to losing market share. “New Zealand has ramped up its annual shipments to Southeast Asia in 2022 and 2023,” Berning says. Despite heightened competition, overall sales from the top 15 worldwide exporters have dropped since 2020, indicating more significant market issues for U.S. exporters.

Concurrently, U.S. Lactose Exports to Southeast Asia Face a Significant Downturn

Concurrently, U.S. lactose shipments to Southeast Asia have dropped significantly. From January to May 2024, shipments plummeted by more than 16%, reaching barely 72.8 million pounds. This reduction compares sharply with the same time in 2023, illustrating more significant issues in the United States dairy export markets. Year-over-year sales figures for 2023 reflect a similar pattern, highlighting the persistent challenges for American lactose exporters in these expanding regions.

The Economic Boom Amidst Dwindling Dairy Imports: A Southeast Asian Paradox

The surprising drop in U.S. dairy exports contrasts strongly with Southeast Asia’s economic development. Vietnam’s GDP increased by 6.4% in the first half of 2024, Thailand’s by 1.5% in the first quarter, and the Philippines’ by 5.7% over the same period. Despite this growth, the demand for dairy has yet to follow up. A greater GDP indicates more consumer spending, which frequently boosts milk imports. However, this has not occurred in Southeast Asia, providing a challenge for U.S. exporters looking to restore market dominance.

The Currency Conundrum: How a Stronger U.S. Dollar Impacts Dairy Trade with Southeast Asia

A rising U.S. dollar influences global commerce by affecting importing countries’ buying power. When the dollar rises, products priced in dollars become more costly for customers with weaker currencies. This dynamic is essential for the dairy industry. A rising dollar diminishes buying power in expanding Southeast Asian countries, raising the cost of U.S. dairy goods. Importers must pay more local currency for the same items, making U.S. dairy exports such as nonfat dry milk and lactose less desirable than cheaper alternatives.

New Zealand, a significant player in the global dairy industry, benefits from free-trade agreements with numerous Southeast Asian nations, which reduce tariffs and prices. In contrast, the United States needs such accords, leaving its goods at a price disadvantage compounded by the strong currency. This competitive advantage makes New Zealand dairy products more enticing to budget-conscious importers. Unless U.S. exporters can provide cheaper pricing or achieve new trade agreements, recovering market share in Southeast Asia would be tough.

A Price Too High: How U.S. Dairy’s Premium Costs Are Hindering Exports to Southeast Asia

Pricing strategy is another significant barrier to U.S. dairy exports to Southeast Asia. Since January 2023, U.S. dairy goods have often been priced more than overseas rivals. This pricing disparity has hindered Southeast Asian importers, who value cost-effectiveness, from purchasing American items. Even when U.S. prices were reduced, the reductions were insufficient to change purchase patterns. The absence of convincing pricing benefits makes it difficult for U.S. exporters to regain market dominance.

The Bottom Line

The decline in U.S. dairy exports to Southeast Asia is undoubtedly due to several interrelated reasons. The most urgent are:

The loss of market share to New Zealand
The negative impact of a higher U.S. currency on buying power
The uncompetitive pricing of U.S. dairy goods

Despite substantial economic expansion in Southeast Asia, these factors have significantly dropped demand for American dairy exports. The lack of free-trade agreements exacerbates the problem, making U.S. goods less appealing than those from rivals like New Zealand. As a result, unless the United States can change its pricing approach to provide much reduced prices, the route to regaining its prior export quantities remains difficult.

Key Takeaways:

For the first five months of 2024, U.S. dairy exports to Southeast Asia decreased by 5%, marking the lowest level since 2019.
U.S. nonfat dry milk (NDM) and skim milk powder exports fell 8% compared to the first five months of 2023.
U.S. lactose exports to Southeast Asia dropped by over 16% in the January to May period of 2024.
Economic growth in the region has not resulted in increased U.S. dairy imports, contradicting typical market expectations.
The stronger U.S. dollar has eroded purchasing power in Southeast Asian countries, making U.S. dairy products less competitive.
The lack of free-trade agreements and high U.S. dairy prices relative to global competitors have also contributed to the decline in exports.

Summary:

U.S. dairy exports to Southeast Asia have fallen significantly in the first five months of 2024, reaching 440.7 million pounds, the lowest volume since 2019. This decline is despite the region’s economic growth, such as Vietnam’s 6.4% GDP spike and the Philippines’ 5.7% GDP gain in Q1. The decline in nonfat dry milk (NDM) and skim milk powder shipments is notable, with USDA figures showing an 8% decrease to 211.2 million pounds in the first five months of 2024 compared to 2023. The fall is partly due to losing market share, as New Zealand has increased its annual shipments to Southeast Asia in 2022 and 2023. A stronger U.S. dollar impacts dairy trade with Southeast Asia by affecting importing countries’ buying power and raising the cost of U.S. dairy goods.

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Categories : Dairy Industry

Soaring Temperatures Hammer Dairy Production: Tight Milk Supply and Rising Costs Impact Market

Sunday, July 14th, 2024

How are soaring temperatures impacting dairy production and milk supply? Discover the challenges faced by farmers and the market shifts affecting your dairy products.

For America’s dairy producers, the increasingly sizzling summers are a testament to their resilience. Despite the rising heat and humidity that create severe difficulties for the dairy business, these farmers continue to persevere. The unrelenting heat may compromise cow comfort and lower milk output, but these dedicated individuals are finding ways to adapt. Their efforts, even in the face of the worst conditions in decades, are a source of inspiration. They are proving that even in this heat, cows can still produce.

Tightening of Spot Milk Availability: A Dire Shift for Dairy Processors

Month	Average Price ($/cwt)	Year-Over-Year Change	Five-Year Average ($/cwt)
January	21.87	+3.5%	19.30
February	20.75	-2.0%	19.60
March	22.15	+1.8%	19.80
April	23.05	+4.2%	20.00
May	24.00	+5.1%	20.20

The lack of spot milk availability is rather apparent. Dairy Market News notes a shortfall of extra shipments even during last week’s vacation. As temperatures climb and cow comfort falls, Midwest milk workers find it challenging to meet demand. Usually, there would be a surplus, but this season provides few choices. Against the five-year average of about $2.70/cwt discounts, processors seeking spot cargoes of milk now face expenses averaging 50¢ above Class III. This sudden shift draws attention to the mounting strain in the dairy sector.

Improvement in Milk Margins: A Double-Edged Sword for Dairy Farmers

Month	Milk Margin 2023 ($/cwt)	Milk Margin 2024 ($/cwt)	Change ($/cwt)
January	$8.90	$9.60	+$0.70
February	$8.30	$10.10	+$1.80
March	$8.50	$10.05	+$1.55
April	$8.75	$9.60	+$0.85
May	$9.60	$10.52	+$0.92

Despite the better milk margins recorded by USDA’s Dairy Margin Coverage program, the financial environment for dairy farmers is not without its challenges. The Milk Margin Over Feed Cost climbed to $10.52 per hundredweight (cwt) in May, a noteworthy 92%-increase from April, the highest number since November 2022. This increase has helped dairy producers relax some of their financial load. However, various economic hurdles include high interest rates, increased borrowing costs, and limited operational investment. Further impeding development are low heifer supplies necessary for herd expansion, replenishment, and high meat costs. As such, increasing milk production presents significant difficulties even with improved profits.

Significant Decline in Dairy Powder Production: A Paradoxical Market Stability

Month	NDM Production (Million lbs)	SMP Production (Million lbs)
January 2024	120.5	95.3
February 2024	115.2	90.1
March 2024	118.7	92.8
April 2024	112.3	88.6
May 2024	109.4	86.5

The effects on dryers have been notable; nonfat dry milk (NDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) output shows a clear drop. The industry’s difficulties were highlighted in May when the combined production of these powders dropped by 15.9% year over year. Over the first five months of 2024, NDM and SMP’s combined production fell to a decade-low. Still, NDM rates have remained highly constant, varying within a small 20′ range over the previous 17 months. Tepid demand balances the limited supply and preserves market equilibrium, providing this stability.

Volatile Dairy Export Markets Take a Hit: Mexico and Southeast Asia Push NDM and SMP Exports to Record Lows

Month	NDM Exports (Million Pounds)	SMP Exports (Million Pounds)
January	150.2	33.1
February	130.4	31.7
March	120.9	29.3
April	140.3	32.5
May	133.6	30.6

The dairy sector has been severely disrupted by the decline in NDM and SMP exports, which has been made worse by a dramatic reduction in demand from Mexico and Southeast Asia. The lowest for May since 2017, shipments of NDM and SMP dropped 24.2% year over year to barely 133.6 million pounds. The drop occurred mainly due to a notable 18.3% annual fall in sales to Mexico. Orders have also notably dropped in key markets in Southeast Asia. This crisis exposes dairy export markets’ sensitivity to trade dynamics and regional economic situations.

Butter Market Soars Amid Supply Constraints: Elevated Prices Highlight Unyielding Demand

Reflecting a robust historical figure, the butter market has maintained high prices at $3.10 per pound. Fundamental causes include:

Limited cream supply from the summer heat.
Growing competition from Class II users.
An aggravating cream shortage.

Notwithstanding these limitations, May’s 4% year-over-year growth in butter output points to strong demand. These supply problems disturb the churns, yet the market needs more butter to satisfy industrial and consumer requirements.

A Tale of Two Cheeses: Italian Varieties Surge While Cheddar Falters

Cheese Type	Production Change (Year over Year)	Key Influences
Italian Varieties	+4.4%	Rising Demand, Improved Margins
Cheddar	-9.7%	Lack of Available Supplies, Market Fluctuations

Cheese manufacturing is undergoing a significant shift, reflecting the impact of changing consumer tastes. Italian variants like Parmesan and Mozzarella are witnessing a 4.4% spike in May, indicating the evolving market. On the other hand, Cheddar’s output is falling, plagued by declining milk supplies and growing manufacturing costs. This shift in consumer preferences is a crucial factor that the industry needs to be aware of and prepared for. As global consumers search for less expensive options, present high costs might restrict exports in the future.

Whey Markets Surge: Breaking Through the 50¢ Barrier

Month	Price per Pound	Volume Traded (Loads)	Trend
May	47¢	25	Stable
June	48.5¢	22	Slight Increase
July	50¢	30	Increase
August	51¢	28	Stable

This week, the whey markets performed well, surpassing the 50¢ per pound threshold for the first time since February. Monday’s slight decrease was followed by Tuesday’s and Thursday’s price increases. With three cargoes exchanged, dried whey prices on Friday had risen 1.75% from the previous week to 51¢ per pound. Manufacturers concentrate on value-added goods such as whey protein isolates and high protein whey protein concentrates, even if regular cheese output drives constant whey manufacturing. This change reduces dry whey output and will probably help near-term pricing.

USDA’s July Report: Sobering Projections Amid Flood-Induced Uncertainty

The July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates published by the USDA provide a mixed picture of the maize and soybean output for 2024/25. Increased acreage causes estimates of corn output to rise by 1.6%, but greater use and exports lower ending stockpiles. Conversely, lower starting stocks and less acreage caused soybean output to drop by 0.3%, resulting in declining ending stocks.

While soybean meal prices held at $330 per ton, USDA shaved the average farm price prediction by 10¢ for both commodities, bringing corn to $4.30 per bushel and soybeans to $11.10 per bushel. This ought to keep feed expenses under control. However, recent extreme flooding in the Midwest, particularly along the Mississippi River, has severely disrupted crop output, possibly rendering up to one million acres of maize useless with little likelihood of replanting. These difficulties might cause feed price volatility, changing the economic environment for dairy producers and other agricultural sector players.

The Bottom Line

Modern dairy markets must contend with changing market dynamics, economic instability, and climate change. Rising heat and humidity have put cow comfort and milk output under pressure, therefore affecting spot milk supply. High borrowing rates, heifer shortage, beef pricing, and better margins all help to limit milk output. Extreme weather influences market stability and dairy output: the declining dairy powder output and butter and cheese market volatility highlight sector instability. Unpredictable availability and significant price fluctuations are resulting from supply restrictions and competition. Dampened demand from Mexico and Southeast Asia complicates matters, especially for skim milk powder and nonfat dry milk. The future of the dairy sector depends on changing consumer tastes, economic pressures, and environmental issues. To guarantee a robust and sustainable future for dairy, stakeholders must innovate for sustainability by adopting adaptive practices.

Key Takeaways:

Milk production has declined due to high temperatures affecting cow comfort.
Spot milk availability has tightened significantly, with handlers in the Midwest struggling to find excess loads.
The price of spot milk is averaging 50¢ over Class III, compared to a five-year average discount of $2.70/cwt.
US milk supply has been trailing prior year levels for almost a year on a liquid basis.
May Milk Margin Over Feed Cost reached $10.52/cwt., the highest since November 2022.
Despite improved margins, producer expansion is limited by high interest rates, heifer scarcity, and elevated beef prices.
Milk supplies are tightest for dryers, with NDM/SMP production down markedly and cumulative production at its lowest in a decade.
NDM prices have remained stable despite low production, ending the week at $1.18/lb.

Summary:

Rising heat and humidity in America have put cow comfort and milk output under pressure, affecting spot milk availability. Dairy producers are adapting to these challenges, with processors facing expenses averaging 50¢ above Class III. The Milk Margin Over Feed Cost increased by 92% in May, the highest number since November 2022. High interest rates, increased borrowing costs, and limited operational investment are also impeding development. Low heifer supplies for herd expansion and replenishment are causing difficulties. Dairy powder production has declined significantly, with nonfat dry milk (NDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) output dropping by 15.9% year over year. The volatile dairy export markets have taken a hit, with Mexico and Southeast Asia pushing NDM and SMP exports to record lows. The butter market maintains high prices at $3.10 per pound due to limited cream supply, growing competition from Class II users, and an aggravating cream shortage.

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Categories : Dairy Markets

U.S. Dairy Exports Drop 5% in May as Cheese Continues to Shine Amid a Challenging Year

Wednesday, July 10th, 2024

Uncover the factors behind the 5% dip in U.S. dairy exports for May, even as cheese exports surged. Can the dairy sector overcome these hurdles and sustain its presence in the global market?

These initiatives, designed with a proactive approach, represent a strategic goal to boost the U.S. dairy industry. The investment in experimental projects for value-added skim milk powder sales to Southeast Asia is a testament to our progressive attitude towards consumer needs. Products such as ESL/aseptic fluid milk, evaporated/condensed milk, and ice cream now receive fat-equivalent support, a deliberate diversification strategy to improve our export profiles.

Furthermore, establishing an advisory council for strategic direction underscores our commitment to industry-wide cooperative efforts. The council’s first emphasis on precompetitive assistance ensures that even smaller companies have opportunities in the global market. The NMPF Executive Committee and the entire board have meticulously planned to increase the industry’s international profile, a goal we all share and are proud to work towards.

Conversely, the larger scene of agricultural commerce seems negative because May’s numbers support an unparalleled trade imbalance. Changing trade links, currency volatility, and global pricing rivalry distort the picture. The USDA Economic Research Service projects a record $32 billion trade imbalance by the end of 2024, stressing significant difficulties ahead for American agriculture.

This disparity emphasizes a crucial point: whereas specific dairy sectors benefit from strategic initiatives and high overseas demand, the agriculture export industry has structural challenges. Essential actions to guarantee a steady increase in U.S. dairy exports in a competitive worldwide market include updating trade agreements and increasing workforce availability.

Cheese Leads the Charge Amidst a Mixed Bag for U.S. Dairy Exports

The U.S. Dairy Export Council reports that May’s dairy exports dropped by 5% after April, which showed an encouraging increase. This drop emphasizes the market’s unequal performance, whereas cheese still shows a fantastic upward tendency. With a 27% rise over the first five months of 2024, U.S. cheese exports in May totaled 48,029 metric tons, up 47% yearly and somewhat less than March’s record number. Strong demand from China’s pig sector also increased Whey exports by 19%.

However, these increases were countered by a dramatic reduction in nonfat dry and skim milk powder shipments to Southeast Asia, which fell 51% yearly to 14,265 metric tons. Weak currencies in the area and fierce worldwide competitiveness help explain this decline.

U.S. Cheese Exports Shine Bright in a Cloudy Dairy Market

American cheese exports shined brilliantly in May, with a substantial 47% year-over-year rise. Driven by American dairy producers’ constant excellence and inventiveness, this explosion emphasizes the worldwide desire for American cheese. Cheese exports have shown strong resilience throughout the first five months 2024, rising by 27%. Record-high March volumes highlight even more the tremendous worldwide demand for American cheese.

Whey Exports Surge Amidst Turbulence, Driven by China’s Growing Demand

Whey exports maintained an upward tendency in a changing U.S. dairy export market. Driven chiefly by great demand from China’s recovering pork sector, whey exports in May showed a noteworthy 19% rise over the year before. This comeback in China’s hog output has made whey even more critical as an ingredient in animal feed. This requirement emphasizes the need to focus on specific international markets to negotiate global competitiveness, currency changes, and the links among many industries.

Global Competition and Economic Pressures Batter U.S. NDM and SMP Exports, Plunging 51% in May

Among the general drop in U.S. dairy exports, nonfat dry milk (NDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) dropped by 51% yearly in May. Various reasons have led to this sharp decline in U.S. exports to Southeast Asia. Mainly from Australia, Europe, and New Zealand—places that gain from reduced manufacturing costs and strategic trade agreements—the heightened global competitiveness from these countries has given them a competitive advantage over American exporters.

The economic difficulties in Southeast Asia aggravate the problem even further. American dairy goods are more expensive and less appealing when weaker currencies in many nations lower their buying power against the U.S. dollar. This junction of fierce competitiveness and financial restrictions shows the problematic environment U.S. dairy exporters must negotiate. To recover power in Southeast Asia, American dairy goods could make a strategic turn, including improved marketing, focused trade agreements, and investigation of new market niches.

CWT Program: A Pillar of Support in U.S. Dairy Export Success

U.S. dairy exports are increasing thanks to the Cooperatives Working Together (CWT) program, a voluntary, producer-funded program that helps U.S. dairy farmers by strengthening and maintaining the demand for dairy products. Thanks to CWT’s help, an extra 5.4 million pounds of dairy products were included in sales in June. CWT-supported export sales the year to date show 45.9 million pounds of American-type cheese, 309,000 pounds of butter, 769,000 pounds of anhydrous milkfat, 18 million pounds of whole milk powder, and 5.9 million pounds of cream cheese. This amounts to 627.8 million pounds of milk on a milkfat basis sent to 27 nations across five continents. Navigating changing market circumstances depends much on the effect of the CWT program.

May’s Dairy Heifer Replacement Exports Highlight Market Vulnerabilities

With an 87% drop from April, May’s dairy heifer replacement exports provide a worrying picture. Distribution of only 241 dairy heifers marked a dramatic decline from April’s 1,808 head. Turkey and Vietnam made significant acquisitions in April, totaling more than 2,000 head, which marks this fall-off. May’s shipments went only to North American partners; Mexico bought 178 and Canada 63. This geographical emphasis reflects patterns from February, therefore illustrating continuous difficulties in the U.S. dairy export sector.

Dairy Embryo Exports Show Robust Growth, Highlighting Market Opportunities and Regional Variability

Exports of dairy embryos were resilient, jumping 13% in May. The UK, Germany, China, and Honduras were key customers, reflecting different market conditions. Germany’s purchases jumped by 52%, while Brazil’s imports declined from 93 to 75 embryos to show regional variances.

U.S. Hay Exports Continue Downward Trend: Alfalfa and Other Varieties Reflect Mixed Market Dynamics

Hay exports remained dropping in May for the second straight month. Year-to-date sales topped 1,013,054 metric tons, while U.S. alfalfa hay exports fell by 12% to 198,993 metric tons. Though their purchases dropped 13% and 8%, respectively, China and Saudi Arabia remained the largest consumers. Japan did boost imports by 2% to 35,424 metric tons.

Other hay exports dropped by 1% in May, following a similar, albeit less dramatic, trend. Japan also dominated in this area with an 11% rise to 55,178 metric tons; South Korea’s imports dropped 13% to 25,466 metric tons. With 96,302 metric tons of other hay shipped overall in May, the U.S. has sold 464,352 metric tons year-to-date.

May Figures Paint a Bleak Picture of U.S. Agricultural Trade Deficit

May’s numbers concerning the U.S. agriculture trade balance provide a concerning narrative. Exports were $13.739 billion; imports were $18.009 billion, producing a $4.269 billion deficit. With a deficit of $15.218 billion, the fiscal year-to-date is at an all-time high. By 2024, the U.S. Department of Agriculture projects an unheard-of $32 billion trade imbalance.

Several factors contribute to this worsening trade balance:

Falling Commodity Prices: Lower prices for key American crops reduce export revenues, aggravated by international competition.
Strong U.S. Dollar: A strong dollar makes U.S. goods pricier abroad, deterring foreign buyers.
Labor Challenges: High labor costs and worker shortages hamper productivity.
Stagnant Trade Agreements: No new trade deals since 2012 have disadvantaged U.S. agriculture.
Economic Conditions in Partner Countries: Weak currencies in Southeast Asian regions reduce their buying power.

Addressing these issues through strategic trade negotiations, labor investments, and policies to stabilize prices and currencies is crucial to reversing this trend.

The Bottom Line

As we negotiate the complexity of the U.S. dairy export market, it’s evident that although cheese and whey are booming, others face significant challenges. May’s numbers show this uneven performance; cheese exports lead the way, while nonfat dry milk and skim milk powder struggle against world competitiveness and financial constraints.

These opposing results highlight more general difficulties in the dairy export scene—a market molded by changing demand, foreign rivalry, and economic uncertainty. Driven by China’s demand, whey’s comeback emphasizes prospects in specialized markets; cheese exports have consistently demonstrated a substantial increase. On the other hand, the sharp drops in skim milk powder and nonfat dry milk expose weaknesses in worldwide competitiveness and exchange rates.

The general agriculture trade imbalance exposes fundamental market problems, further complicating the situation. Dairy exporters will have to negotiate economic headwinds even if price recovery is possible in the following months. Using Cooperatives Working Together (CWT) assistance, developing focused pilot projects, and adding operational flexibility will help U.S. dairy goods be more visible on the market. Furthermore, sustainability and creativity might provide a competitive advantage worldwide.

The American dairy sector finds itself at a turning point. Maintaining adaptability and forward-looking by prioritizing strategic interventions and encouraging international cooperation would help. Although the difficulties are great, so are the chances for development and change worldwide.

Key Takeaways:

Cheese Exports: Increased by 47% year-over-year to 48,029 metric tons, maintaining strong performance.
Whey Exports: Rose by 19% compared to last year, driven by robust demand from China.
Nonfat Dry Milk (NDM) and Skim Milk Powder (SMP): Experienced a significant 51% drop due to global competition and weaker currencies in Southeast Asia.
CWT-Assisted Sales: Surpassed 5 million pounds in June, with notable contracts for cheese, butter, and other dairy products.
Dairy Heifer Replacements: Recorded an 87% decline in May, with trading limited to North American partners.
Dairy Embryo Exports: Increased by 13%, showcasing market potential in several regions.
Hay Exports: Continued to decline, with a 12% drop in alfalfa hay sales and a slight decrease in other hay varieties.
Agricultural Trade Deficit: Reached -$4.269 billion in May, contributing to a record fiscal year-to-date deficit of $15.218 billion.

Summary:

The U.S. dairy industry is focusing on boosting exports by investing in value-added skim milk powder sales to Southeast Asia and establishing an advisory council for strategic direction. These efforts aim to diversify products like ESL/aseptic fluid milk, evaporated/condensed milk, and ice cream, improving their export profiles. However, the agricultural trade landscape faces significant challenges, with a $32 billion trade imbalance projected by the USDA Economic Research Service by the end of 2024. Cheese exports have shown a strong upward trend, with a 27% rise over the first five months of 2024. However, nonfat dry and skim milk powder shipments to Southeast Asia fell 51% yearly to 14,265 metric tons. American cheese exports have shown resilience, rising by 27% in May, driven by the excellence and inventiveness of American dairy producers. Whey exports have also seen a significant 19% rise in May, driven by China’s recovering pork sector. To recover power in Southeast Asia, American dairy goods could make a strategic turn, including improved marketing, focused trade agreements, and exploration of new market niches. Addressing these issues through strategic trade negotiations, labor investments, and policies to stabilize prices and currencies is crucial to reversing this trend.

Learn more:

Categories : Dairy Markets

China’s Dairy Self-Sufficiency Reshapes Global Markets: New Zealand’s Export Strategy Shifts

Monday, June 17th, 2024

How will New Zealand adapt as China’s dairy self-sufficiency reshapes global markets? Discover the impacts on global trade and New Zealand’s evolving export strategy.

Let us grasp the global dairy industry’s interdependence through a metaphor. Consider a row of dominos, each representing a significant industry participant. The first domino stands for China, the dairy demand domino; the second for New Zealand; and the third for whole milk powder (WMP), the dairy commodity domino. One domino falling sets off a chain reaction that topples every next domino. The market is the friction in this comparison, affecting the direction and pace of this response.

China’s remarkable achievement of self-sufficiency in milk production, a staggering 11 million metric tons from 2018 to 2023, has left an indelible mark on the global dairy industry. The nation’s diminishing WMP imports, dropping from an average of 670,000 metric tons (2018–2022) to a mere 430,000 metric tons in 2023, are a clear testament to this seismic shift.

New Zealand, the primary dairy exporter to China, now faces a daunting task. The nation must now seek alternative markets for the milk equivalent of approximately 150,000 metric tons of WMP. This search for import destinations, whether in the form of WMP, skim milk powder (SMP), milkfat, or cheese, is a significant endeavor. This volume, which is almost 1.3 million metric tons of milk, represents a substantial 6% of New Zealand’s annual milk supply.

This situation has undoubtedly sparked fierce competition among the current dairy-exporting countries, leading to below-average world milk powder prices. As we look ahead, the question looms: will China’s increased self-sufficiency act as a catalyst for dairy-deficient regions to follow suit, or will it create a market for imports that were previously out of reach?

Key Takeaways:

China’s increased self-sufficiency in dairy production has significantly reshaped global dairy trade dynamics.
New Zealand, a leading dairy exporter, is seeking new markets to offset reduced whole milk powder (WMP) demand from China.
China’s WMP imports have fallen markedly, leading to heightened competition among global dairy exporters.
New Zealand has adjusted its export strategy by increasing shipments of skim milk powder (SMP), butterfat, and cheese.
China’s domestic dairy production growth has created both challenges and opportunities across the global dairy sector.
Other dairy-exporting regions, particularly the EU and the US, are facing pressure due to New Zealand’s strategic export shifts.
Potential future market dynamics include shorter supply chains, trade protectionism, and evolving demand patterns in dairy-deficient regions.
Production costs, resource availability, and government policy are critical factors influencing China’s domestic dairy supply.

Summary: The global dairy industry is interconnected through a chain reaction of dominos, with China, New Zealand, and whole milk powder (WMP) being key players. China’s self-sufficiency in milk production from 2018 to 2023 has significantly impacted the industry, with diminishing WMP imports. New Zealand, the primary dairy exporter to China, now faces a challenge in finding alternative markets for 150,000 metric tons of WMP, which represents 6% of its annual milk supply. This has sparked fierce competition among dairy-exporting countries, leading to below-average world milk powder prices. The question remains: will China’s increased self-sufficiency act as a catalyst for dairy-deficient regions to follow suit, or will it create a market for imports previously out of reach? The market is the friction in this comparison, affecting the direction and pace of this response.

Categories : Dairy Industry

U.S. Cheese Production in April: Italian Cheese Surges, American Cheese Declines

Sunday, June 9th, 2024

Dive into April’s U.S. cheese production trends. Curious about the rise of Italian cheese and the decline of American cheese? Uncover the compelling data and regional details.

April presented a mixed landscape for U.S. cheese production, with both promising gains and notable declines. According to the USDA, total cheese output, excluding cottage cheese, reached 1.19 billion pounds, up 1.8% year-over-year but down 3% from March. Italian-type cheese production rose by 6.2% from last year to 504 million pounds, though it fell 2.8% from March. On the other hand, American cheese production declined by 4.7% year-over-year and 4.3% from March, totaling 468 million pounds.

“The mixed trends in U.S. cheese production signal both resilience and challenges within the industry,” the USDA report suggests.

Category	Production (Million Pounds)	Year-Over-Year Change	Month-Over-Month Change
Total Cheese (excluding cottage)	1,190	+1.8%	-3.0%
Italian-Type Cheese	504	+6.2%	-2.8%
American Cheese	468	-4.7%	-4.3%
Butter	208	+5.3%	-1.0%
Nonfat Dry Milk	173	-12.7%	—
Skim Milk Powder	36.3	-20.8%	—
Dry Whey	—	+2.1%	—
Lactose	—	-1.5%	—
Whey Protein Concentrate	—	-6.1%	—
Hard Ice Cream	64.7 million gallons	+7.3%	—

Mixed Signals in April U.S. Cheese Production Reflecting Varied Trends

According to the USDA data, total cheese output, excluding cottage cheese, reached 1.19 billion pounds in April. This marks a 1.8% increase compared to the same period last year but shows a 3% decrease from March. The production dynamics underscore a mixed trend in U.S. cheese production for the month, reflecting both year-over-year growth and month-over-month decline.

Italian Cheeses Shine Year-Over-Year Despite Monthly Dip

Italian-type cheese production showcased a remarkable upturn, reflecting a year-over-year surge of 6.2%, culminating at 504 million pounds. Despite this annual growth, the month-over-month comparison revealed a marginal dip of 2.8% from March. This duality underscores both the strong demand for Italian cheeses over the year and the seasonal or market-driven fluctuations that influence monthly production volumes.

American Cheese Production Faces Significant Challenges in April

Amid the intricate landscape of U.S. cheese production, American cheese has faced a particularly challenging month. Specifically, April witnessed a decline in American cheese output, both when compared year-over-year and month-over-month. Production fell by 4.7% from April last year, resulting in a total output of 468 million pounds. The month-over-month comparison is similarly bleak, with a 4.3% decrease from March, accentuating the downward trend in this particular cheese category. This dual decline highlights ongoing shifts within the industry, signaling potential adjustments in consumer demand and production focus.

Butter Production Sees Minor Monthly Dip Amidst Impressive Annual Growth

Butter production trends exhibited a complex pattern, reflecting the overarching variability in the dairy sector. While there was a minor decline of just over 1% in butter output compared to March, the sector demonstrated resilience with a notable 5.3% increase compared to the same period last year. This duality in trends is indicative of broader market dynamics and seasonal production adjustments. In total, April’s butter production reached 208 million pounds, underscoring both the short-term and long-term shifts in the dairy landscape.

Sharp Declines in Dry Dairy Products Highlight April’s Downturn

Dry dairy products presented a downward trend in April, with significant declines observed in both nonfat dry milk and skim milk powder production. Nonfat dry milk saw a steep reduction, recording a 12.7% drop to reach a total of 173 million pounds. Skim milk powder production experienced an even sharper decline of 20.8%, culminating in a total output of 36.3 million pounds compared to the same period last year.

Contrasting Fortunes Within Dry Dairy Production Reflect April’s Complex Landscape

Nevertheless, not all dry dairy products shared the same fate. Dry whey production, for instance, edged up by 2.1%, offering a glimmer of optimism amidst broader declines in the sector. Specifically, dry whey output reached notable levels, counteracting the overarching downtrend. Conversely, lactose production did not fare as well, registering a 1.5% decline. Even more striking was the significant 6.1% decrease in whey protein concentrate production. Collectively, these figures underscore the mixed results within the dry dairy product landscape, highlighting areas of both growth and notable declines.

Unprecedented Fluctuations in Frozen Dairy Production: Hard Ice Cream Surges While Other Categories Slide

Frozen dairy product output varied significantly in April, illustrating a mixture of trends within the industry. The production of hard ice cream notably climbed by an impressive 7.3%, reaching 64.7 million gallons. This increase stands in stark contrast to the declines observed in other frozen dairy categories. The production of low-fat ice cream, sherbet, and frozen yogurt all experienced downturns, highlighting the sector’s fluctuations and the diverse consumer preferences shaping production dynamics.

Regional Production Trends: Wisconsin’s Cheddar Supremacy and California’s Mozzarella Dominance

In examining regional production trends, the data reveals that Wisconsin continues to dominate the Cheddar cheese market, producing an impressive 60.38 million pounds in April. California follows, contributing 21.29 million pounds to the nation’s Cheddar cheese supply.

Turning attention to Mozzarella, California leads with a substantial output of 134.14 million pounds, while Wisconsin is not far behind, generating 93.13 million pounds. This makes California the unrivaled leader in Mozzarella production, though Wisconsin’s figures are commendable.

When looking at overall cheese production, Wisconsin emerges as the top-producing state with an aggregate output of 281.48 million pounds. California comes in second, followed closely by Idaho and New Mexico. These states collectively form the backbone of the U.S. cheese manufacturing industry, each playing a crucial role in meeting domestic and international demand.

The Bottom Line

April’s cheese production data from the USDA paints a complex picture of the dairy industry, characterized by both advancements and setbacks. Italian-type cheeses exhibited impressive year-over-year growth, driven by a notable 6.2% increase, even as they faced a slight month-over-month decrease. In stark contrast, American cheese suffered significant declines both annually and monthly, highlighting underlying production challenges.

The broader dairy landscape reflected similar dualities. Butter production experienced a modest monthly dip but demonstrated robust annual growth. The production of dry dairy products such as nonfat dry milk and skim milk powder saw sharp drops, whereas dry whey managed a slight increase.

Frozen dairy products also showed variability, with hard ice cream production surging, while other categories like low-fat ice cream and frozen yogurt declined. Regionally, Wisconsin and California continued to dominate specific cheese categories, underscoring their pivotal roles in national dairy production.

Overall, these intricate trends underscore the multifaceted nature of the U.S. dairy industry, highlighting areas of growth and the need for strategic adjustments in response to declining segments.

Key Takeaways:

Total cheese production in April saw a slight year-over-year increase of 1.8%, despite a 3% drop from March.
Italian-type cheese production rose by 6.2% year-over-year but decreased by 2.8% from the previous month.
American cheese production experienced declines both year-over-year and month-over-month, down by 4.7% and 4.3% respectively.
Butter production was up by 5.3% compared to April of last year, although it saw a minor decline from March.
Dry dairy products faced significant declines: nonfat dry milk dropped by 12.7% and skim milk powder by 20.8% year-over-year.
Dry whey production slightly increased by 2.1%, while lactose and whey protein concentrate production declined by 1.5% and 6.1% respectively.
Hard ice cream production surged by 7.3%, but low-fat ice cream, sherbet, and frozen yogurt production all decreased.
Wisconsin led in Cheddar cheese production, contributing 60.38 million pounds, whereas California was the top producer of Mozzarella with 134.14 million pounds.

Summary: In April, U.S. cheese production experienced a mixed landscape, with both positive and negative trends. The USDA reported a total cheese output of 1.19 billion pounds, up 1.8% year-over-year but down 3% from March. Italian-type cheese production rose by 6.2% to 504 million pounds, while American cheese production declined by 4.7% year-over-year and 4.3% from March, totaling 468 million pounds. This dual decline highlights ongoing shifts within the industry, signaling potential adjustments in consumer demand and production focus. Butter production saw a minor monthly dip, while dry dairy products showed a downward trend, with significant declines observed in nonfat dry milk and skim milk powder production. Dry whey production edged up by 2.1%, but lactose production and whey protein concentrate production also saw a decline. Frozen dairy product output varied significantly, with hard ice cream production climbing by 7.3% to reach 64.7 million gallons. Wisconsin continues to dominate the Cheddar cheese market, producing an impressive 60.38 million pounds in April.

Categories : Dairy Markets

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