Learn how dairy producers are managing high milk prices and tough conditions to keep their barns full. Can they keep milk production steady despite these challenges?

Producers are making significant efforts to preserve their herds, often lowering milk yield standards to avoid slaughter. This collective action has led to the lowest dairy cow slaughter rates in eight years, indicating a shared commitment to increase herd sizes and milk output. However, external pressures such as severe weather and avian influenza pose additional challenges to this collective quest. 

With the prospect of tightening milk supplies and reduced production, the dairy industry is entering a crucial period. The coming months will serve as a litmus test for the resilience and ingenuity of dairy producers across the nation. We invite you to delve deeper into the challenges they’ve overcome and the strategies they’re employing to navigate these turbulent times.

A Remarkable Feat: Dairy Producers Innovate to Sustain Herd Sizes Amid Soaring Milk Prices

Dairy producers have demonstrated remarkable resilience in maintaining herd sizes despite soaring milk prices. They have invested over $3,000 in springers, a testament to their commitment to high-quality replacements. By adjusting milk yield standards, they have managed to retain more cows in the herd, avoiding the financial impact of sending them to the packer despite record-high beef prices. 

This strategic move led to a significant drop in dairy cow slaughter rates, with only 216,100 heads culled in May—an eight-year low. The decreased cull rates boosted herd numbers. The USDA’s Milk Production report revised April estimates upwards by 5,000 heads, and May saw an additional expansion by another 5,000 heads. Consequently, the U.S. milk parlors housed 9.35 million cows in May, the highest count in seven months, though still 68,000 head fewer than in May 2023.

USDA’s Revised Estimates Highlight Complexities in Dairy Sector Dynamics 

The USDA’s latest Milk Production report, a comprehensive analysis of milk production, supply, and demand in the United States, brings new insights into the dairy sector. The revised estimate for April shows an increase of 5,000 head in the milk cow herd despite a slight decline from March. The herd grew by another 5,000 in May, totaling 9.35 million cows—the highest count in seven months but still 68,000 fewer than in May 2023. 

Milk output, however, presents a less encouraging picture. April’s production was adjusted to a 0.6% decline, and May followed suit with a 0.9% year-over-year decrease, dropping to 19.68 billion pounds. 

These figures highlight the challenges facing the dairy industry. Even with herd growth, heat waves and avian influenza undermine yields. This could tighten milk supplies and increase prices, emphasizing the need for adaptive strategies in this volatile market.

Heat Waves and Avian Influenza Compound Pressures on Dairy Producers 

Adverse conditions have taken a toll on milk yields, exacerbating dairy producers’ challenges. The heat wave sweeping through California, the Southwest, and parts of the eastern United States has subjected the dairy herd to significant thermal stress. Record-high overnight temperatures in Florida and the Northeast further hampered milk production. Dairy cows, sensitive to heat, generally eat less and produce less milk when temperatures soar, making it difficult for producers to maintain output levels. Similarly, the spread of avian influenza has reduced herd health, necessitated increased biosecurity measures, and decreased milk quality, further adding to the strain on production capabilities.

While Idaho was spared from the intense heat, it faced its own battle with avian influenza, leading to a significant year-over-year drop in milk output. The state’s milk production fell by 0.6% in May, starkly contrasting the 0.3% gain in April. 

These challenges resulted in a nationwide decline in milk yields and total output. National average milk yields fell below prior-year levels, with total milk production dipping to 19.68 billion pounds in May, a 0.9% reduction from the previous year. The USDA revised its estimate for April milk output to show a 0.6% decline, up from the initially reported 0.4% deficit. These factors underscore adverse conditions’ significant impact on dairy production nationwide.

Worsening Conditions Signal Tightening Milk Supplies Ahead 

As we look ahead, the dairy industry’s adaptability will be crucial as milk supplies could significantly tighten due to worsening conditions. The persistent heat wave in key dairy regions and the spread of avian influenza are adding strain to production capabilities. However, the industry’s ability to navigate these adverse conditions and maintain a stable supply chain instills confidence in its resilience. 

This tightening of milk supplies is already impacting milk powder production. As liquid milk availability diminishes, so does the capacity to produce milk powder. This constraint is evident in the market, with CME spot nonfat dry milk(NDM) prices hitting a four-month high at $1.205 per pound. The market recognizes that the looming supply shortage and upward pressure on NDM prices will likely persist. 

The combined effects of climatic challenges and disease outbreaks highlight the precarious state of the dairy supply chain. Producers are preparing for a tough summer, where every pound of milk is crucial for meeting demand and stabilizing market prices. Navigating these tumultuous times will be critical to the industry’s resilience and adaptability.

A Seismic Shift: China’s Domestic Milk Production Transforms Global Dairy Markets

China’s significant increase in domestic milk production over the past five years, adding roughly 23 billion pounds, has had a profound impact on global dairy prices. This surge is equivalent to the combined annual output of Texas and Idaho, underscoring the global reach of the dairy industry and the need for producers to stay informed about international market dynamics. 

Data from last month underscores this trend: whole milk powder (WMP) imports fell by 33% from May 2023, the lowest May figure since 2017. Skim milk powder (SMP) imports plummeted 52% year-over-year, the lightest since 2016. The year-to-date milk powder imports are the slowest in nine years, prompting dairy processors to focus more on cheese production and broaden their market reach. 

While China’s increased milk production hasn’t significantly affected whey imports, local factors like declining birth rates and financial challenges in the hog industry have lessened demand for whey in infant formula and animal feed. As a result, Chinese whey imports dropped by 9.4% last month compared to May 2023. The U.S. provided much of this supply, but the market’s slower growth has led to reduced overall volumes.

Dynamic Domestic Demand for High-Protein Whey and the Ripple Effects in the Dairy Market

Domestic demand for high-protein whey has been pivotal in maintaining dry whey inventories and stabilizing prices. Even with reduced exports to China, the U.S. market’s vital need for nutritional supplements and food ingredients has kept the demand high. This has prevented a surplus, helping prices hold firm. CME spot dry whey remains at 47ȼ, underscoring this consistent support. 

Meanwhile, the intense heat has boosted ice cream sales, tightening cream supplies. This shift has slowed butter churning as more cream goes into ice cream production. Yet, butter demand stays strong, and prices are stable. At the Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auction, CME spot butter prices ended the week at $3.09. These trends show how weather impacts dairy product segments and market behaviors.

Cheese Price Challenges: Navigating Domestic Demand and Global Market Dynamics

The recent dip in cheese prices highlights the complexities of market balance. Despite strong domestic demand, securing new export sales has been challenging, with prices close to $2, making U.S. cheese-less competitive globally. This week, CME spot Cheddar blocks dropped 12.5ȼ to $1.845, and barrels fell to $1.92. 

This pricing slump has rippled through the futures market, affecting Class III and IV values. The June Class III contract fell 81ȼ to $19.86 per cwt, while fourth-quarter contracts increased slightly, indicating mixed market sentiments. Class IV futures remained steady, averaging $21.43, showing bullish expectations amid the current market challenges.

Weather Extremes and Market Sentiments: Navigating the Grain Market’s Unpredictable Terrain

The grain market faces weather challenges and market reactions this season. A wet spring boosted soil moisture in the Corn Belt, setting the stage for solid crop growth. However, heavy rains west of the Mississippi River have caused oversaturation and flooding fields in Nebraska, Iowa, South Dakota, and Minnesota. This excess moisture, now a concern, hampers fieldwork and threatens crops. 

In contrast, the eastern regions have seen hot and dry conditions. Initially, this was good for crops, but persistent heat is now stressing them, potentially affecting yields if it continues. 

Despite these adverse conditions, grain markets remain surprisingly calm. July corn futures have dipped by 13 cents to $4.35 per bushel, and December contracts hit a four-month low at $4.53. Conversely, July soybean meal prices have risen, reaching $362.50 per ton. This reveals agricultural markets’ intricate and often unpredictable nature, where traders and producers constantly adapt to changing conditions and signals.

The Bottom Line

Dairy producers have shown remarkable resilience as milk prices soar. Despite record-high beef prices, they’ve kept herd sizes steady, investing in springers and reducing cull rates to combat the challenges posed by rising costs. The USDA’s data revision underscores slight expansions in the dairy herd, but producers are under pressure from a heat wave and avian influenza, affecting yields and supply. 

With worsening conditions, milk supplies are tightening, influencing milk powder production and prices. China’s significant boost in domestic milk production has reshaped global markets, making the landscape competitive for dairy exporters. Domestically, demand for high-protein whey remains strong, while cheese prices struggle despite robust demand, revealing a complex market environment. 

Extreme weather and fluctuating grain markets add to the industry’s challenges. Strategic adjustments in herd management, leveraging domestic solid demand for certain products, and adapting to global changes will be crucial. Dairy producers’ ability to innovate and respond to these challenges will determine their success and sustainability.

Key Takeaways:

• Dairy producers paid $3,000 or more for springers to keep their barns full amidst soaring milk prices.
• The dairy cow slaughter rate dropped to an eight-year low in May, with just 216,100 head being culled.
• The USDA reported a 5,000 head increase in the April milk-cow herd estimate and a further 5,000 head rise in May.
• Despite heightened efforts, national average milk yields dipped below prior-year volumes, with overall milk output dropping by 0.9% year-over-year to 19.68 billion pounds.
• Heat waves and avian influenza exacerbated the situation, particularly affecting dairy operations in Idaho and many parts of the United States.
• China’s increased domestic milk production has significantly reduced its reliance on imports, impacting global dairy product prices and competition.
• Although Chinese whey imports declined, domestic demand for high-protein whey in the U.S. remains strong, keeping prices firm.
• Ice cream demand due to hot weather has tightened cream supplies and slowed butter churning, keeping butter prices robust while cheese prices faced a decline.
• Weather conditions have varied widely, with floods in the Corn Belt and heat stress on crops in the east, affecting grain market sentiments.

Summary: 

The dairy sector is facing a surge in milk prices due to increased demand, supply chain disruptions, and consumer preferences. Producers are lowering milk yield standards to preserve herds, leading to the lowest dairy cow slaughter rates in eight years. However, external pressures like severe weather and avian influenza pose additional challenges. The USDA’s Milk Production report shows an increase in the milk cow herd, but milk output is less encouraging. The dairy industry’s adaptability is crucial as milk supplies could tighten due to worsening conditions. The market is also facing a shortage of nonfat dry milk (NDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) imports, with China’s domestic milk production significantly impacting global dairy prices. Domestic demand for high-protein whey is pivotal in maintaining dry whey inventories and stabilizing prices. The grain market faces weather challenges and market reactions, but grain markets remain calm.

Learn More:

• Is 2024 Shaping Up to Be a Disappointing Year for Dairy Exports and Milk Yields?
• Why Milk Costs More but Dairy Farmers Earn Less: The Global Dairy Dilemma
• Ireland’s Dairy Farmers Battle Persistent Rain