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How Bird Flu is Hitting Dairy Farmers: Critical Insights from the Latest USDA Production Report

How is bird flu impacting dairy farmers and milk production? What critical insights does the latest USDA report reveal about regional declines? Read on to find out.

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Have you ever considered how avian flu may affect your dairy operations? It may initially seem unlikely, but the most recent USDA production report shows an unexpected relationship. Milk output in the 24 central states fell by 0.2% in July 2024 compared to the previous year, but this is more than simply a blip in the data. It’s also a story of regional issues and extraordinary consequences, especially in places hard impacted by avian flu epidemics. Could the viral outbreak, which seems to be unrelated to dairy farms, have a part in these numbers?

According to the USDA, “the number of milk cows on farms in the United States was 9.33 million head, 43,000 less than in July 2023, but 5,000 more than in June 2024” [USDA Report].

As we examine these figures, it becomes clear that areas such as Colorado, Idaho, and other states that have had both bird flu outbreaks and significant losses in milk production are suffering the weight of numerous agricultural strains. How does this interwoven influence play out, and what does it imply for your dairy farm? Let’s look at the shocking impact of avian flu on our beloved dairy business.

The USDA Report Unveils a Double-Edged Sword for Dairy Farmers

According to the most recent USDA study, dairy producers face significant challenges. Milk output in the 24 central states fell by 0.2% in July compared to the previous year. This loss was more critical nationally, with milk output falling by 0.4%.

Despite these decreases, it is crucial to recognize certain good elements. In July, output per cow in the 24 central states grew marginally by 2 pounds compared to July 2023. However, this was insufficient to offset the overall decrease in production.

The number of dairy cows also reduced. In July, the 24 primary states had 8.88 million cows, 31,000 less than the previous year. Milk cows totaled 9.33 million nationwide, a 43,000 decrease from July 2023.

These data illustrate the dairy industry’s continued struggles. The minor rise in output per cow demonstrates some efficiency advantages, but the overall decline in cow number and milk production suggests possible difficulties that must be addressed.

Regional Analysis: Where Bird Flu Hits Hardest 

Our investigation finds a remarkable link between areas highly affected by avian flu and significant losses in milk output. States like California, Minnesota, and New Mexico have suffered substantial consequences for their dairy industries.

Colorado

The USDA estimate predicts a significant increase in Colorado milk output from June 2023 to June 2024. In June 2023, Colorado dairy farms generated 438 million pounds of milk. However, revised month-over-month figures reveal a 3.7% decline in output, which is more substantial than the previously reported 1.1%. Colorado has witnessed an increase in bird flu infections, with 64 herds reported, especially in the northern and eastern districts.

Idaho

Milk output in Idaho fell sharply between June 2023 and June 2024. The output per cow declined from 2,145 pounds to 2,095 pounds, while total milk production decreased from 1,437 million pounds to 1,397 million pounds. This 2.8% reduction, corrected from an initial -1.0%, may be related to avian flu cases in dairy cows, with 30 herds testing positive for bird flu.

Michigan

Michigan saw a decline in milk production when comparing June 2023 to June 2024. In June 2023, the state’s dairy farms produced 1,012 million pounds of milk. However, by June 2024, production dropped to 994 million pounds, marking a decrease of approximately 1.8%.  Bird flu has exacerbated these challenges in Michigan. Twenty-seven herds in the state tested positive for bird flu during this period, contributing significantly to the production decline.  

Iowa

Iowa produced 497 million pounds of milk from a herd of 240,000 cows in June 2023, but this figure fell slightly to 489 million pounds in June 2024 despite a minor rise in herd size to 242,000. This 1.6% decline in output contrasts sharply with the USDA’s original estimate of a 1.2% increase. Bird flu has taken its toll, with the state reporting 13 herds affected.

Minnesota 

Minnesota also saw a drop in milk supply, presumably due to bird flu problems. The state’s output in July 2024 was 866 million pounds, down 4.0% from 902 million pounds in July 2023. Such a reduction highlights the severe consequences of the ongoing avian influenza pandemic, with nine herds reported.

New Mexico 

The consequences in New Mexico are much more apparent, with a sharp drop in output. According to estimates for June 2024, milk output declined by 12.5%, from 550 million pounds in June 2023 to 481 million pounds in June 2024. This state has one of the highest bird flu reports at eight herds, considerably impacting dairy output.

Texas

The only outlier in these states is Texas, with milk production in Texas seeing a 3.1% growth rate. This comparison highlights resilience and the ongoing need for strategies to mitigate broader industry challenges [USDA Report]. However, the forecast for Texas dairy production in the upcoming months presents a more complicated picture due to ongoing bird flu concerns. 

Data highlight the critical need for comprehensive actions to combat the spread of avian flu, maintain poultry health, and protect dairy producers’ livelihoods in these impacted areas.

Proactive Strategies for Dairy Farmers Amid Bird Flu Crisis 

The avian flu outbreak necessitates dairy producers using proactive methods to protect their farms. First and foremost, supply networks must be diversified. Establish partnerships with numerous sources for feed and other essentials so that others may cover the void if one source fails. This lowers reliance on a single provider, which is susceptible to epidemics.

Improving biosecurity measures may be an essential line of defense against avian flu. Simple efforts, such as restricting farm access to needed staff, disinfecting equipment regularly, and installing footbaths at animal area entrances, may make a significant impact. It’s also a good idea to keep a closer eye on cattle health, allowing for faster isolation and treatment of any problems.

Another method is to seek financial aid to mitigate economic damage. Investigate government programs and subsidies, such as those granted by the USDA, to provide financial assistance during interruptions. These programs often have particular qualifying requirements, so staying current on what is available and applying as soon as possible is critical.

Here are some actionable tips: 

  • Establish a contingency plan outlining steps to take if bird flu is detected nearby.
  • Train staff on updated biosecurity protocols to ensure everyone understands and follows best practices.
  • Consider insurance options that cover losses due to disease outbreaks.
  • Stay connected with local agricultural extension offices or industry groups for the latest updates and support.
  • Maintain detailed records of livestock health to identify and respond to any warning signs quickly.

By incorporating these strategies, dairy farmers can better prepare for and mitigate the impact of bird flu on their operations, ensuring continued productivity and stability.

The Bottom Line

Dairy producers must grasp the most recent USDA data and the geographical effect of avian flu on milk output. This information allows you to make educated judgments and alter methods as necessary. We’ve seen how states like Idaho and Colorado, as well as other states, face particular issues due to avian flu and declining milk output.

The value of biosecurity measures cannot be emphasized. Pasteurization, donning protective equipment, and keeping up to date on bird flu outbreaks can protect your herd and your company.

The USDA study emphasizes the need for adaptation and resilience. Staying informed and proactive is more important than ever before. As Alan Bjerga of the Federation’s Industry Relations points out, strict safety standards are critical in light of the H5N1 pandemic.

So, how will you change your dairy operations to address these challenges? Staying ahead in these unpredictable times requires a scientific, vigilant, and proactive approach.

Summary: The article explores the dual challenges dairy farmers face amid recent USDA reports indicating a drop in milk production and regions heavily impacted by bird flu. It underscores the need for enhanced biosecurity to control virus spread and proactive strategies for dairy farmers. Milk output in 24 states fell by 0.2% in July 2024 compared to the previous year, with significant losses in Colorado, Idaho, and Michigan, while Texas saw a 3.1% increase. 

  • USDA reports reveal a 0.2% decline in milk production in 24 states for July 2024 compared to the same month last year.
  • Colorado, Idaho, and Michigan experienced significant losses in milk output, contrasting with a 3.1% increase in Texas.
  • The spread of bird flu has heavily impacted several regions, highlighting the need for enhanced biosecurity measures.
  • The dairy industry faces challenges from both avian influenza and declining milk production, necessitating proactive strategies.
  • Addressing health crises in both avian and dairy farming sectors is essential to ensure industry stability and public health safety.

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Heifer Shortage Crisis: Why Dairy Farmers Are Struggling Despite Soaring Milk Prices

Uncover the surprising reasons behind the heifer shortage hitting dairy farmers hard, even as milk prices soar. Will they be able to solve this issue and expand their herds? Find out more.

Milk prices are at their highest in years, but dairy producers face an unanticipated catastrophe. It feels like a contradiction. Despite good on-farm margins and lower feed costs, dairy farmers face a huge challenge: a severe shortage of heifers and young cows for future milk production. This shortfall is more than a mere inconvenience; it alters dairy producers’ plans and choices throughout the country. The market has been delivering a clear message: produce more milk. But what can farmers do when the appropriate livestock are not available? In the following parts, we’ll examine the causes of the heifer scarcity, its influence on the dairy business, and whether current high prices can reverse the situation.

MonthHeifers Sent to Beef Packinghouses (thousands)Average Price per Heifer ($)Milk Yield Trend (compared to previous year)
September 202328.62,950Stable
December 202325.43,000Stable
March 202423.13,200Slight Decrease
June 202421.13,300Decrease
July 202420.73,350Decrease

Economic Highs and the Surprising Heifer Dilemma: What’s Holding Dairy Farmers Back?

Dairy producers are enjoying some of the most favorable economic circumstances in years. Lower feed costs and predictable milk profits enable farmers to pay off debt and save for the future. This stability has arrived at a critical moment, providing a much-needed cushion against previous financial strains.

But it does not end there. The market is indicating that it’s time to increase the milk supply. The temptation to produce more milk is straightforward, with prices hovering around $20 per hundredweight. Farmers are prepared and eager to satisfy this demand, but a significant impediment is the heifer scarcity.

Scarcity Strikes: How the Heifer Shortage is Undermining Dairy’s Economic Boom

The heifer shortage has struck the dairy sector hard, challenging the momentum of recent economic highs. This shortfall has worsened since September when dairy companies looking to increase their herds encountered a shortage of heifers. The shortage caused them to rethink their strategy: fewer cows were transferred to beef packinghouses, and less productive milk cows were retained longer than usual.

This shift is evident in the stark numbers: from September 2023 to June 2024, dairy farmers sent 286,100 fewer milk cows to beef packinghouses than the previous year. Initially, this technique seemed practical since U.S. milk output stayed consistent throughout the autumn and winter. However, the consequences have now become apparent.

The most recent Milk Production report reveals milk yields at or below year-ago levels in two-thirds of the 24 central dairy states, including areas unaffected by exceptional weather circumstances. This pattern highlights heifers’ crucial role in maintaining and increasing milk output. The lack of heifers and the dependence on less productive cows are already noticeably lowering milk output, posing a challenge for farmers looking to capitalize on good economic circumstances.

Rising Heifer Prices Aren’t Just a Headline: The Operational Burden for Dairy Farmers

YearHeifer Price (per head)
2018$1,500
2019$1,750
2020$2,000
2021$2,200
2022$2,500
2023$2,800
2024$3,075

Rising heifer prices are more than just a headline; they are a significant issue for many in the dairy business. Last week, the top 25 springers sold for between $3,000 and $3,300 per head at the monthly auction in Pipestone, Minnesota. It wasn’t simply a regional increase; top-quality Holstein springers averaged $3,075 at the monthly video auction in Turlock, California. These statistics are startling when considering how they will affect your operation’s finances.

Imagine planning a herd expansion only to discover that heifers suddenly cost thousands more than expected. The financial hardship is confirmed. Higher heifer prices raise starting expenses, forcing many companies to reconsider their breeding strategy or postpone growth plans entirely. Although milk sales remain stable, rising expenditures make it difficult to invest for the future or pay off debt.

With beef prices high, many people turn to hybrid dairy-beef calves for a more immediate cash source. This technique provides a faster financial return but needs to address the long-term need of keeping a healthy milking herd. It’s a difficult decision: spend substantially now with uncertain future profits or capitalize on the present meat market for faster gains.

The problem is more than statistics; it is about planning for sustainability in a volatile business. Your ability to handle these complex dynamics will influence the future of your operations, so it is vital to be aware and adaptive.

Why Are Dairy Producers Leaning Towards Crossbred Dairy-Beef Calves? 

Why do dairy farmers choose crossbred beef calves over conventional dairy heifer ones? The solution rests in irresistible economic incentives. Crossbred calves may provide more immediate cash, frequently commanding $200 to $400 more than purebred Holsteins. This quick income is a game changer for dairy producers wanting to secure their finances in an ever-changing market.

However, the value of dairy heifers remains variable. Investing resources in growing replacement calves is a long-term risk, with no certainty that these heifers will be worth the high price when ready to join the milking herds. In contrast, revenue from beef calves is immediate and guaranteed, making it a less hazardous and more tempting choice for farmers. The quick financial gain from beef calves helps dairy producers navigate a volatile sector, maintaining a consistent revenue stream even when prices move.

Traditional Breeding Battles Modern Economics: A Minority’s Approach to Sustaining Heifer Supplies

Surprisingly, a small number of dairy farmers are adopting a more conventional strategy for breeding, focused on maintaining appropriate heifer headcounts to support their herds. These farmers recognize the long-term importance of a consistent supply of replacement heifers, even if it means preceding some immediate revenue from crossbred dairy beef calves. However, these changes are minor enough to reduce the overall heifer shortfall significantly. The financial incentives for generating crossbred calves are too appealing, causing most dairy producers to prefer quick, consistent revenue above long-term profits. As a result, even those who return to conventional breeding need to produce more heifers to alter total heifer availability. This circumstance exacerbates the current shortage, highlighting the intricate economic calculations dairy farmers must make in a volatile business.

Future Focus: Will Short-Term Gains Trump Long-Term Stability in Dairy Farming? 

The present breeding practices and prolonged heifer deficit are expected to have long-term consequences for the dairy business. These trends pose severe concerns regarding the sustainability and efficiency of dairy production. Will the quick profitability from crossbred dairy-beef calves balance the long-term advantages of ensuring enough heifer supplies? This problem has the potential to influence breeding methods significantly.

Due to present economic incentives, dairy farmers progressively leaning toward crossbreeding may see their choice becoming a standard practice. The guaranteed income from cattle calves offers a lifeline in an unstable industry. However, this change may accidentally diminish the total dairy cow herd, reducing milk production capacity and increasing reliance on shifting market circumstances for beef.

Suppose heifer prices remain low to encourage a return to conventional breeding. In that case, the business may progressively migrate toward farms specializing in beef-dairy hybrids. This trend may cause dairy farm operations to prioritize short-term profitability over long-term herd growth, thereby changing the farming environment.

Furthermore, dairy producers that oppose this tendency and continue with conventional breeding may find themselves in a unique situation. If heifer prices finally line with the risks and expenditures connected with their growth, these farmers might reap significant benefits. They may become major competitors in a market desperate for high-quality dairy cows, resulting in a competitive but more stable economic climate.

Finally, the endurance of these present breeding tendencies may signal substantial changes in dairy farming operations. Whether this results in a widespread move toward crossbred beef-dairy herds or a return to conventional breeding, today’s actions will influence the industry’s future. Dairy producers must balance immediate financial rewards and long-term herd viability when analyzing breeding options.

The Bottom Line

As we handle increasing heifer pricing and the transition to hybrid dairy-beef calves, it’s clear that dairy producers have a distinct set of issues. Despite having the highest on-farm margins in years, the heifer scarcity threatens long-term viability. While some ranchers continue to use conventional breeding techniques, most find the instant money from beef calves too appealing. This delicate balance between short-term profits and long-term stability will dictate dairy farming’s future. Will the heifer scarcity cause a significant shift in dairy production practices?

Key Takeaways:

  • Feed costs have decreased, and milk revenues remain stable, improving on-farm margins.
  • There is a significant shortage of heifers, driving prices to between $3,000 and $3,300 per head.
  • High beef prices incentivize dairy farmers to produce crossbred dairy-beef calves instead of purebred heifers.
  • From September 2023 to June 2024, 286,100 fewer milk cows were sent to beef packinghouses than the previous year.
  • Milk production has decreased in 16 of the 24 largest dairy states, affecting long-term herd management.

Summary:

Dairy farmers enjoy unprecedented on-farm margins thanks to reduced feed costs and stable milk revenues, but a significant heifer shortage hinders increased milk production. With heifer prices soaring—last week, the top 25 springers ranged from $3,000 to $3,300 per head at the monthly sale in Pipestone, Minnesota—and beef prices at record highs, many farmers are opting for crossbred dairy-beef calves, which offer a more immediate and reliable revenue stream. From September 2023 to June 2024, 286,100 fewer milk cows were sent to beef packinghouses, while milk yields are below year-ago levels in 16 of the 24 largest dairy states, complicating long-term herd management strategies.


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U.S. Milk Production Dips Slightly in May 2024, While South Dakota Surges with 10% Increase

Explore the factors behind the slight decline in U.S. milk production for May 2024 and delve into the remarkable 10% increase in South Dakota’s output. What allowed this state to defy the national trend? Continue reading to uncover the details.

The most recent USDA data presents a complex picture for May 2024. Though down 0.7% from May 2023, South Dakota stood out as total U.S. milk output marginally dropped to 18.9 billion pounds. Here, milk output jumped by a startling 10%.

“The 24 central dairy-producing states provided 18.9 billion pounds of milk in May 2024, a little drop. Still, the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service notes that South Dakota’s dairy producers enjoyed an impressive 10% gain.

This opposite tendency draws attention to regional agricultural dynamics and clarifies the changes in U.S. dairy output.

USDA June 2024 Report: Nuanced Shifts and Subtle Declines in U.S. Dairy Production

CategoryMay 2023May 2024Percentage Change
Total Milk Production (billion pounds)19.919.7-0.9%
Production per Cow (pounds)2,1252,122-0.14%
Number of Milk Cows (million head)8.9428.89-0.58%
Total Milk Production in South Dakota (million pounds)38242010%
Number of Milk Cows in South Dakota (thousand head)1932129.84%
Production per Cow in South Dakota (pounds)1,9791,9800.05%

According to the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service, the 24 central dairy-producing states produced 18.9 billion pounds of milk in May 2024, declining 0.7% from May 2023. This drop reflects cow numbers and production efficiency changes, highlighting continuous difficulties in the dairy industry.

The revised April output was 18.3 billion pounds. In May 2024, the average cow output was 2,122 pounds—three pounds less than in May 2023. Milk cows numbered 8.89 million, 52,000 less than in May 2023 but 5,000 more than in April 2024. These changes show how the sector responds to environmental and financial demands.

Monthly Dynamics: Analyzing the Increase from April to May 2024 in U.S. Milk Production

MonthMilk Production (billion pounds)
January 202418.1
February 202417.8
March 202418.5
April 202418.3
May 202418.9
June 2024 (estimated)19.0

Generally speaking, milk output rose significantly in May 2024 compared to April 2024. While May’s production increased to 18.9 billion pounds—a notable monthly increase—April’s production reached 18.3 billion pounds. The 5,000 growth in milk cow numbers—which reached 8.89 million head in May—helps to explain this rise in some measure. Still, in May, productivity per cow averaged 2,122 pounds, a little down from last year. This dynamic draws attention to the difficulty of controlling the production and efficiency of dairy herds.

Unpacking Per-Cow Production Dynamics: May 2024 Average Output Dips Slightly

MonthMilk Output per Cow (pounds)
December 20232,100
January 20242,105
February 20242,112
March 20242,115
April 20242,122
May 20242,122

The average milk output per cow in May 2024 dropped somewhat from May 2023, at 2,122 pounds. Though minor, this decline might point to more significant patterns in the dairy sector. Factors can include variations in herd health, feed quality, or cow management practices. Furthermore, the industry’s shift towards more environmentally friendly methods might influence efficiency.

Strategic Herd Adjustments: Tracking Notable Changes in Milk Cow Numbers 

MonthMilk Cows (in millions)
December 20238.90
January 20248.85
February 20248.87
March 20248.89
April 20248.88
May 20248.89

This trend reflects more significant changes in the U.S. dairy sector, as modern dairy operations have concentrated output in certain states. Since 2008, these states have had a slower increase in cow numbers; nonetheless, by 2020, they will have exceeded conventional dairy states. The industry’s emphasis on maximizing herd efficiency and output is a calculated reaction to changing environmental and financial constraints in dairy production, reassuring the audience about the industry’s adaptability.

Subtle Shifts in May 2024: Total U.S. Milk Production Declines Amid Evolving Industry Challenges

MonthTotal U.S. Milk Production (Billion Pounds)Percentage Change from Previous Year
May 202319.9
June 202319.5-0.4%
July 202319.3-0.5%
August 202319.2-0.5%
September 202319.0-0.7%
October 202318.9-0.5%
November 202318.8-0.5%
December 202318.7-0.5%
January 202419.0-0.2%
February 202418.9+0.1%
March 202419.1+0.1%
April 202418.3-0.5%
May 202419.7-0.9%

With a 0.9% drop from May 2023, the total U.S. milk output in May 2024 was 19.7 billion pounds. This decline reflects a subtle change in the dairy sector that mirrors more general trends in strategic herd management and efficiency improvements. The decline may indicate labor limits, financial concerns, and environmental factors, even if farm management and genetics have improved. The U.S. dairy sector has to negotiate this complexity to be sustainable and competitive in a demanding market.

South Dakota’s Dairy Sector Defies National Trends with Remarkable 10% Surge in May 2024 Production.

StateMay 2024 Production (million pounds)Change from May 2023 (%)
California3,400-0.5
Wisconsin2,600+1.0
Idaho1,425+0.7
Texas1,300-1.2
New York1,200-0.3
South Dakota420+10.0
New Mexico370-2.1
Pennsylvania840-0.4
Minnesota825-0.6
Michigan910+0.2

With a 10% rise from May 2023, South Dakota’s fantastic milk production explosion contrasts with the general U.S. trend and results in a total output of 420 million pounds for May 2024. Strategic herd increases and improved dairy farm management techniques account for this development. With a 19,000 year-over-year average rise in milk cow count, the state reached 212,000. This points to a conscious attempt at industrial scale-up. Driven by improved nutrition and modern breeding, per-cow productivity has increased, enhancing production despite industry problems. One extreme outlier in South Dakota is its dairy industry, which uses creative management and effective resource allocation.

With cows averaging 1,980 pounds—an increase from May 2023—the average output per cow in South Dakota for May 2024 showed remarkable efficiency. This growth shows improved feed quality and efficient farm management, proving South Dakota’s dedication to maximizing dairy operations through calculated innovations and financial support. Though nationwide decreases, South Dakota’s strategy offers a dairy-producing solid model.

The Bottom Line

The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service noted a 0.9% drop in total U.S. milk output from the previous year in May 2024. Nevertheless, South Dakota defied this trend with a 10% increase in production. The state accomplished this by increasing the number of milk cows and raising output per cow.

These opposing patterns draw attention to local differences in the dairy business. While South Dakota’s development shows good localized tactics and investments, the national fall may result from industry pressures and agricultural consolidations. With focused improvements, certain areas may continue flourishing while others see continuous decreases. These trends highlight the requirement of flexible, regionally relevant strategies to guarantee success in the American dairy industry.

The different patterns in national and South Dakota milk output provide critical new perspectives on the sector’s changing possibilities and problems, thereby pointing to a complicated and sophisticated future for dairy output in America.

Key Takeaways:

  • Total U.S. milk production in May 2024 slightly decreased by 0.7% compared to May 2023.
  • Production per cow in May 2024 averaged 2,122 pounds, marginally dropping by 3 pounds from the previous year.
  • The number of milk cows in the U.S. was 8.89 million in May 2024, reflecting a reduction of 52,000 cows compared to May 2023.
  • Despite the national decline, South Dakota’s milk production in May 2024 soared by 10%, totaling 420 million pounds.
  • The average number of milk cows in South Dakota increased by 19,000 from May 2023, with production per cow averaging 1,980 pounds.
  • April 2024’s revised milk production was recorded at 18.3 billion pounds, indicating a consistent production trend.

Summary:

The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service reported a 0.7% drop in total U.S. milk output in May 2024, with South Dakota showing a 10% increase in production. This contrasts with the general U.S. trend, which saw a 0.7% drop. However, South Dakota’s dairy producers experienced a 10% gain, highlighting regional agricultural dynamics and changes in U.S. dairy output. The average cow output in May 2024 was 2,122 pounds, three pounds less than in May 2023. Milk cows numbered 8.89 million, 52,000 less than in May 2023 but 5,000 more than in April 2024. South Dakota’s dairy sector defied national trends with a 10% increase in production, attributed to strategic herd increases and improved farm management techniques. The report underscores the need for flexible, regionally relevant strategies to ensure success in the American dairy industry.

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