Archive for market consolidation

Australian Dairy Industry Worries Over Fonterra’s Local Business Sale: Market Consolidation Concerns Emerge

Find out why Fonterra’s sale of its Australian dairy business is raising worries about market consolidation. What will this mean for local farmers and consumers? Read more.

Fonterra’s decision to sell its consumer brands is a significant event that is reshaping the global dairy industry, including the Australian sector. This strategic shift, which prioritizes B2B and ingredients despite the consumer division’s financial success, has raised concerns among local stakeholders about market concentration and its potential impact on Australian dairy producers and consumer choices.

As the Business Council of Cooperatives and Mutuals (BCCM) stated: 

“The announcement by Fonterra that it intends to sell its Australian dairy processing assets is yet another blow to dairy farmers and a reminder about the precarious nature of our food security when staples like milk are passed around like commodities.”

Key concerns include: 

  • Market consolidation reduces competition and local control.
  • Pressure on farm gate prices, possibly forcing farmers out of the market.
  • The risk of a supermarket duopoly, limiting consumer choices and raising prices.

The issues at hand underscore the pressing need to promptly reassess market dynamics. This is crucial to secure the long-term sustainability of Australia’s dairy industry, a vital part of our nation’s economy and food security.

Fonterra’s Strategic Pivot: Divesting Consumer Brands to Strengthen B2B and Ingredients Focus

One of the major players in world dairy, Fonterra, is changing its approach to concentrate on its B2B and ingredients division. Selling well-known consumer brands, including Anlene, Anchor, and Fernleaf—despite their gross earnings in FY2023 of NZ$781 million (US$481.9 million—this move entails selling these companies notwithstanding Revenue sources indicates another tale, though the consumer sector accounted barely 7% (NZ$3.3 billion / US$2.4 billion). The food service industry brought 13% of total income (NZ$3.9 billion / US$2.4 billion). Comprising 80% of revenue and producing NZ$2.6 billion (US$1.6 billion) in gross profits, the ingredients industry dominated. Aiming to simplify processes, emphasize core competencies, and react to consumer and food service asset interests, this strategy change is meant to streamline operations.

Financial Data Illuminates Fonterra’s Strategic Shift 

Fonterra’s latest financial results support their strategy change. From a modest 7% of sales, the consumer division brought in NZ$781mn (US$481.9mn) in gross profits in FY2023. With nearly 13% of sales (NZ$3.9 billion/US$2.4 billion), the food service industry produced NZ$749mn (US$462.2mn) in gross profits. With 80% of total sales (NZ$17.4bn/US$10.7bn), the ingredients business led with gross earnings of NZ$2.6 billion (US$1.6 billion).

Substantial consumer and food service revenues nonetheless indicate Fonterra’s main strength—that of ingredients. Fonterra wants to improve long-term value by concentrating on its best-performing channels—ingredients and food service—involving Unwanted interest in areas of its company also drives the choice; this is a perfect moment for disposal to reallocate funds and improve its principal activities.

Fonterra’s Comprehensive Global Strategy: Streamlining Operations with a Focus on B2B and Ingredients

With its intentions to leave the Australian market and divestiture of consumer brands in Sri Lanka, Fonterra’s new approach centers on its B2B and ingredients business and CEO Miles Hurrell pointed out shedding companies including Anlene, Anchor, and Fernleaf, “While these are great businesses with recent strengthening in performance and potential for more, ownership of these businesses is not required to fulfill Fonterra’s core function of collecting, processing and selling milk.”

Hurrell clarified the strategy turnaround: “More value would come from focusing our Ingredients and food service channels and freeing money in our Consumer and related companies. Disposing these businesses would enable a more straightforward, better-performing Co-op with an eye on our core Ingredients and food service sector. We have also had an unwanted interest in several of these companies; hence, this is a good moment to review their ownership.

Aiming to strengthen its presence in the worldwide market, where B2B and ingredient categories offer more profitable prospects, the divestments in Sri Lanka and Australia are part of a bigger plan to maximize operational efficiency and capital allocation.

Concerns Over Consolidation: Potential Ripple Effects on the Australian Dairy Market 

The local dairy industry is alert about how Fonterra’s divestiture may affect the Australian market. Rising market consolidation especially worries the Business Council of Cooperatives and Mutuals (BCCM). They contend this would concentrate dairy asset ownership within a small number of powerful companies, therefore lowering competition.

BCCM cautions that this consolidation might harm dairy producers by lowering their bargaining strength at the farm gate. When market power centers on one entity, farmers may be pressured to accept reduced milk prices to meet shareholder profits. This might threaten smaller, independent farms, compromising the industry’s variety and resilience.

Customers might also experience this. Price increases at retail establishments run the danger given that fewer businesses manage processing and distribution. BCCM observes that this could result in fewer options and more expensive essential dairy products.

The possible loss of local authority over dairy assets raises even another issue. Emphasizing more profitability than community and farmer wellbeing, BCCM notes that foreign and corporate ownership may eclipse local interests.

BCCM supports increased primary producer participation in the value chain to offset these risks. They see cooperatives as essential for giving dairy farmers the negotiating strength they need to flourish in Australia’s mostly deregulated and export-oriented market. Supporting cooperatives helps the industry protect its stability and sustainability against the forces of market concentration.

Potential Consequences of Fonterra’s Australian Asset Divestment: Market Concentration and Its Ripple Effects 

Fonterra’s choice to sell its Australian consumer businesses begs questions about further market concentration. Like the supermarket duopoly in New Zealand, this action may result in a few powerful companies controlling the market. Such consolidation may marginalize independent, small dairy farms and processors, lowering their market impact.

Two big supermarket chains’ dominance in New Zealand caused an imbalance in negotiating strength, which drove down farm gate pricing and compressed profits for local dairy producers. Should this happen in Australia, some farmers may be driven out of the sector by cost constraints and declining profitability. Therefore, Farmers and customers would be affected by this, influencing product diversity, price, and market rivalry.

The regulatory clearance for Coles’ purchase of Australian Saputo processing facilities points toward retail ownership over processing becoming the norm. Should this continue, milk manufacturing may merge even more into retail chains, emphasizing cost over innovation or quality, which would reduce market dynamism.

Encouraging the adoption of robust cooperative models is not just a solution but a beacon of hope in the face of these challenges. These models have the potential to empower Australian dairy producers, increasing their share in the value chain and enhancing their negotiating strength. By promoting a cooperative approach, we can help the sector maintain the diversity and resilience of the Australian dairy market and mitigate the potential negative consequences of market concentration.

Future Pathways: Strengthening Dairy’s Horizon Amid Consolidation Concerns 

The choices Australia’s dairy sector must make now will determine its direction. Thanks to increased consolidation, larger companies might be able to dominate, perhaps pushing out smaller farms and lowering competition. However, consumer choices and farm gate pricing may suffer from this change.

Still, a different route highlights how cooperatives strengthen leading producers. The collective negotiating strength provided by cooperatives guarantees a fairer market, more balanced pricing, and equitable profit distribution. Participating in the whole value chain—from manufacturing to distribution—improves farmers’ economic resilience and negotiation power against more powerful companies.

Moreover, cooperatives may promote sustainable agricultural methods that match environmental and financial objectives. Establishing a robust cooperative movement within the Australian dairy industry guarantees food security, variety, and quality for customers, as well as stability and protection of livelihoods.

Using co-ops and including primary producers in the value chain will determine the industry’s destiny. These tactics may let the dairy industry negotiate consolidation difficulties and emerge stronger and fairer globally.

The Bottom Line

Fonterra’s calculated choice to sell their consumer brands and concentrate on B2B and ingredients represents a significant change. This action seeks to simplify basic procedures even if consumer sector financial performance is excellent. However, the Australian dairy sector has expressed worries about market concentration. Essential concerns include:

  • Possible consumer price increases.
  • Effects on nearby dairy farms.
  • The possibility of a retail duopoly pressuring farm gate pricing.

Examining this divestiture process closely is vital if we safeguard industry stability and advance cooperative models that empower farmers in the value chain. Maintaining the interests of every Australian dairy industry stakeholder depends on a balanced, competitive market.

Key Takeaways:

The recent strategic pivot by Fonterra, which involves divesting its consumer brands to concentrate on its B2B and ingredients business, has raised significant concerns within the Australian dairy sector. The decision, influenced by various financial metrics, is seen as both a commercially sound move for Fonterra and a potential risk for market consolidation in Australia. 

  • Fonterra plans to divest its consumer brands such as Anlene, Anchor, and Fernleaf globally.
  • The decision follows a strategy shift to focus on B2B and ingredients business despite strong performance in the consumer sector.
  • FY2023 data reveals that the consumer business generated NZ$781mn in gross profits, surpassing the foodservice business.
  • The ingredients business remains the largest revenue contributor, making up 80% of total revenue.
  • Fonterra’s exit from the Australian market includes divestment of its consumer, foodservice, and ingredients businesses.
  • Concerns have emerged within the local dairy sector regarding market concentration and its impact on dairy farmers and consumers.
  • Australia’s Business Council of Co-operatives and Mutuals (BCCM) highlights the potential for increased market dominance by large business interests and its implications on farm gate prices.
  • There is a growing sentiment that co-operatives may be a key solution to maintaining bargaining power for dairy farmers.

Summary:

Fonterra is reshaping the global dairy industry, including the Australian sector, by focusing on its B2B and ingredients division. This strategic shift has raised concerns about market concentration, potential impact on Australian dairy producers, and consumer choices. The Business Council of Cooperatives and Mutuals (BCCM) criticized the announcement, stating that market consolidation reduces competition, local control, pressures farm gate prices, and risks a supermarket duopoly. Fonterra’s financial results show that the consumer division generated only 7% of total income in FY2023. The ingredients industry dominated, accounting for 80% of revenue and $2.6 billion in gross profits. The Australian dairy industry is concerned about Fonterra’s divestiture, which could lead to market consolidation and lower competition. BCCM supports increased primary producer participation in the value chain.

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EU Dairy Decline: 2024 Milk Production Forecasted to Drop 0.3% Amid Lower Cow Numbers and Rising Costs

Discover why EU milk production is forecasted to drop 0.3% in 2024. How will declining cow numbers and rising costs impact the dairy industry? Read more to find out.

EU Flag waving against blue Sky

European Union milk production is set to face another challenging year, continuing its downward trend into 2024. Several factors contribute to this decline, with a predicted 0.3% drop in cow milk production. As the number of dairy cows falls below 20 million for the first time, it’s evident that consistent growth in cow productivity won’t fully offset the shrinking cow inventories. Rising production costs and lower farm-gate milk prices further exacerbate the situation, making milk production less profitable for EU farmers.  Join us as we delve further; these elements paint a comprehensive picture of the EU’s milk production landscape in 2024.

EU Dairy Herds Dwindling: First-Ever Drop Below 20 Million Cows Marks 2024’s Start

CountryDairy Cows in Milk (January 2024)Expected Change in Dairy Farmer Numbers (2024)Milk Production (Forecast for 2024)
Germany4.0 millionDecreaseStable
France3.5 millionDecreaseSlight Decrease
Poland2.8 millionDecreaseSlight Increase
Belgium0.6 millionDecreaseSlight Decrease
Netherlands1.6 millionMinimal ChangeStable
Ireland1.5 millionMinimal ChangeDecrease

At the start of 2024, the EU saw a significant change in its dairy industry: dairy cows dropped below 20 million, hitting 19.7 million. This marks a historic low and indicates a continuing downward trend in cow numbers, which is expected to persist throughout the year.

The Double-Edged Sword of Rising Cow Productivity Amid Shrinking Herds

Even though each cow produces more milk, more is needed to make up for the overall decline in cow numbers across the EU. Simply put, fewer cows mean less milk overall. This imbalance contributes directly to the forecasted 0.3% drop in milk production for 2024. Despite individual productivity gains, the milk output is declining due to the shrinking herds.

A Temporary Respite: Early 2024 Sees Milk Deliveries Surge Before Expected Decline

Time PeriodMilk Deliveries (MMT)Change (% Year-on-Year)Average Farm Gate Milk Price (EUR/100kg)

January-February 2023 24.0 – 40.86

January-February 2024 24.4 1.7% 35.76

Full Year 2023 145.24 -0.03% 39.50

Full Year 2024 (Forecast) 144.8 -0.3% 37.00

Early 2024 saw a 1.7% rise in cow’s milk deliveries compared to the same period in 2023. However, this boost is short-lived. Many farmers are expected to sell their cows or exit milk production later in the year, leading to a decline in deliveries.

The Multifaceted Challenges Shaping Europe’s Dairy Economy

The economic landscape for dairy farmers is becoming more challenging. A key issue is the steady drop in farm-gate milk prices since early 2023, significantly affecting profitability. 

Production CostsHigh production costs for energy, fertilizers, and labor persist, squeezing farmers’ margins despite some recent reductions. 

Geographical Impact: In Germany, France, Poland, and Belgium, smaller and less efficient farms are hardest hit. The pressure from lower milk prices and high input costs drives many to reduce herd sizes or stop milk production. 

Environmental RegulationsEnvironmental rules in the Netherlands and Ireland seek to cut nitrogen emissions, which are expected to negatively affect herd numbers and production costs in the long term. 

Overall, larger farms may better cope, but the trend toward consolidation continues due to falling profits and rising costs.

Environmental Regulations Cast Long Shadows Over EU Dairy Farming

Environmental regulations are threatening Europe’s dairy farming. New measures to curb nitrogen emissions are adding pressure on struggling farmers in the Netherlands and Ireland. 

For example, the Netherlands aims to cut nitrogen emissions by 50% by 2030, including reducing the number of dairy cows and relocating farms. Ireland’s targets similarly demand stricter manure management and sustainable farming practices, both costly and complex. 

These regulations, combined with high production costs and declining milk prices, make it challenging for smaller farms to stay in business. Many are choosing to exit the market rather than invest in expensive upgrades. 

As a result, smaller farms are shutting down, and larger farms need help to maintain their herd sizes. Although these regulations are essential for a greener future, they add another layer of complexity to the EU dairy industry’s challenges.

Generation Renewal Crisis Accelerates Market Consolidation in EU Dairy Sector

A growing trend in market consolidation and farm closures is evident within the EU dairy sector. One key issue here is the challenge of generation renewal. Younger generations are increasingly hesitant to continue milk production due to the heavy workload and tight profit margins. Elevated production costs and decreasing farm-gate milk prices also make it challenging for smaller, less efficient farms to stay in business. 

However, larger and more professional farms show notable resilience. They often have better infrastructure, access to advanced technology, and excellent financial stability, allowing them to maintain herd numbers despite broader declines. By leveraging economies of scale and more efficient practices, these farms can better absorb economic shocks and comply with environmental regulations. 

This disparity between small and large farms is accelerating market consolidation. As smaller farms exit, larger ones are absorbing their market share. While the total number of dairy farms is decreasing, those that remain are becoming more advanced and better equipped to tackle future challenges in the dairy economy.

Record-High Milk Prices in 2022 Spark Production Surge, Only to Shatter in 2023-2024

The surge in milk deliveries in 2022 and 2023 stemmed from record-high EU farm gate milk prices in 2022, peaking in December. These prices incentivized farmers to boost production despite rising costs, supporting the dairy industry at that time. 

However, these prices began to fall from May 2023 through March 2024, squeezing farmers financially. Although still above the 5-year average, the decline sharply contrasted with 2022’s profitability. With global milk production up and dairy demand fluctuating, EU farmers adjusted their production levels, paving the way for a predicted drop in milk deliveries in 2024.

The Ripple Effect: How Global Market Dynamics Shape EU Milk Prices 

Global market dynamics significantly impact EU milk prices. The world’s largest dairy exporters, including Australia, the United States, the UK, and New Zealand, have increased production, leading to an oversupply that pressures prices downward. This makes it challenging for EU producers to maintain their margins. 

Simultaneously, demand from major importers like China and some Middle Eastern countries is declining. Various factors, including trade tensions and shifting consumer preferences, contribute to this weaker demand. 

This supply-demand imbalance has reduced farm gate milk prices in the EU. While European prices remain higher than those of international competitors, more than this advantage is needed to counteract the rising production costs and reduce global demand. The EU dairy industry must navigate these challenges to stay competitive and sustainable.

Price Disparities in Global Dairy: EU’s Costly Position Against New Zealand and US Competitors

When you look at milk prices, you’ll notice that the EU’s are much higher than those of other major exporters like New Zealand and the US. In February 2024, the EU’s milk price hit EUR 46.42 per 100 kilograms. That’s 27% more than New Zealand’s and 18% more than the US. 

These higher prices mean EU dairy products cost more to produce and sell, making it challenging for EU producers to compete globally. Higher costs can squeeze farmers further, especially with high input costs and changing demand.

Weather Woes: Uneven Conditions Across Europe Impact Dairy Farming

In 2024, weather was vital in shaping feed and pasture conditions across Europe. Spring brought warm temperatures and balanced rainfall, leading to good green feed availability. However, the northwest, especially Ireland, faced challenges. Ireland’s dairy farming, which relies on cattle grazing for up to nine months, has struggled with wet soils and recent rains. These conditions hindered field access and grassland regrowth, severely impacting milk production.

The Bottom Line

In summary, EU milk deliveries are forecast to dip to 144.8 million metric tons (MMT) in 2024. Unfavorable weather and high input costs for energy and fertilizers are straining farmer margins. Despite brief boosts in productivity, these challenges will likely persist throughout the year.

Key Takeaways:

  • Decline in Cow Numbers: Cow numbers fell below 20 million for the first time in early 2024, indicating a continuing downward trend.
  • Productivity vs. Herd Size: Increased productivity per cow is not enough to counterbalance the overall decrease in herd sizes.
  • Initial Surge in Milk Deliveries: Early 2024 saw a 1.7% increase in milk deliveries, but this is expected to decline as more farmers exit the industry.
  • Decreasing Profitability: Farm-gate milk prices have been falling since early 2023, alongside high production costs, squeezing farmers’ profit margins.
  • Impact of Environmental Regulations: Government plans to cut nitrogen emissions in countries like the Netherlands and Ireland are affecting herd numbers.
  • Market Consolidation: The industry is seeing greater consolidation, with smaller, less efficient farms closing and bigger farms maintaining their herd sizes.
  • Weather Complications: Varying weather conditions across Europe in 2024 have impacted green feed availability and pasture conditions, particularly in Ireland.

Summary: The European Union’s milk production is experiencing a significant decline, with a predicted 0.3% drop in cow milk production. This decline is attributed to rising production costs and lower farm-gate milk prices. The number of dairy cows has fallen below 20 million for the first time, making milk production less profitable for EU farmers. In early 2024, there was a 1.7% rise in cow milk deliveries compared to the same period in 2023, but this was short-lived as many farmers were expected to sell their cows or exit milk production later in the year. The economic landscape for dairy farmers is becoming more challenging, with a steady drop in farm-gate milk prices since early 2023 significantly affecting profitability. High production costs for energy, fertilizers, and labor persist, squeezing farmers’ margins despite some recent reductions. The EU dairy sector is experiencing a growing trend of market consolidation and farm closures, with younger generations increasingly hesitant to continue milk production due to heavy workloads and tight profit margins.

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