Archive for market circumstances

Why New Zealand Dairy Farmers Should Brace for a Challenging Milking Season

Why are New Zealand dairy farmers facing a tough season? How will moisture levels and market shifts impact your farm’s profits? Keep reading to find out.

Summary: Dairy farmers in New Zealand are navigating a challenging start to the 2024-25 milking season with a slight dip in milk production and solids. According to the Dairy Companies Association of New Zealand, initial June figures show a 0.9% decline in milk production and a 2.2% drop in milk solids compared to last year. Despite a higher opening milk price from Fonterra, these numbers raise concerns, particularly with industry expectations of further declines in July. However, hope persists as forecasts predict increased volumes later in the season. Farmers closely monitor moisture levels and weather patterns conducive to pasture growth, especially on the North Island. Internationally, New Zealand remains a crucial dairy exporter. Yet, shifts in global trade, particularly a reduction of exports to China, present new challenges. These changes underscore the importance of monitoring market dynamics and adapting to evolving conditions that could influence the dairy supply chain.

  • The June 2024-25 season saw a 0.9% drop in milk production and a 2.2% decrease in milk solids.
  • Fonterra’s opening milk price for the new season shows a slight increase.
  • Industry experts expect further declines in July, with an upswing in production predicted for August to October.
  • Current moisture levels on North Island and favorable weather forecasts support pasture growth.
  • Global trade shifts, notably reduced exports to China, create new market challenges for New Zealand’s dairy industry.
  • Farmers are cautious about the evolving market dynamics and the importance of adaptability in the dairy supply chain.
milking season, New Zealand, dairy producers, challenges, milk collections, milk solids, decline, income, Kiwi farmers, Fonterra, starting price, kilogram of milk solids, break even, additional feed, dairy businesses, overhead expenses, inflation, geopolitical uncertainty, forecast, control expenditures, market circumstances, profit, loss, vigilance, techniques, moisture levels, North Island, historical norms, Waikato region, South Island, pasture quality, milk output, global trade, dairy dominance, export patterns, alternative purchasers, global dairy prices, supply pools

The 2024-25 milking season presents challenges as output figures fall short of expectations. Are you prepared for what lies ahead? With milk collections down 0.9% and milk solids down 2.2% compared to the previous year [DCANZ Statistics], evaluating the elements that might affect your bottom line is essential. The dynamics of the local and global economies pose important considerations concerning our preparedness, and your involvement is critical in dealing with these issues.

Consider the following significant issues:

  • Mitigating the effects of diminishing milk solids production.
  • Addressing possible swings in global dairy demand, notably from China.
  • Adapting to changing weather patterns that may impact pasture conditions.

Being proactive and well-informed is an essential and potent tool in our arsenal as we confront these challenges. What strategies are you employing to stay ahead in this volatile landscape?

SeasonMilk Production (Million Pounds)Milk Solids (Million Pounds)
2022-2351546.1
2023-2450245.8
2024-25 (Forecast)50344.8

Are We Seeing the Dawn of a Dairy Dilemma?

As we begin the 2024-25 milking season, the preliminary numbers have aroused some questions. Milk output has declined by 0.9% since June 2023. While June usually sees the lowest collecting statistics of the year, the 2.2% decline in milk solids is especially concerning. We recognize that milk solids are a critical source of income for many Kiwi farmers, and we deeply appreciate your efforts and dedication in this area.

So, how does this affect our daily heroes? With milk solids down to only 44.8 million pounds from last year’s period, the financial consequences might be felt across their budgets. Given that supplementary feed is a significant expenditure for New Zealand growers, these lower margins may make it challenging to balance their books. Farmers may need help to break even this season, especially with rising overhead expenditures. We appreciate the passion and hard work you put into your farms and are here to help you during these difficult times.

Can Fonterra’s Milk Prices Save the Day?

Fonterra’s starting price for the 2024-25 season ranges between $7.25 and $8.75 per kilogram of milk solids (kgMS), essential for dairy producers looking to remain afloat. The $8/kgMS midpoint is slightly above the previous season’s final $7.90/kgMS midpoint.

However, Dairy Market News warns that a $8.31/kgMS price is required to break even. The rising cost of additional feed, a significant expenditure, has increased strain on dairy businesses. Overhead expenses follow closely, eroding business margins. Inflation and geopolitical uncertainty exacerbate the situation, making it challenging to forecast and control expenditures properly.

But there is hope. Fonterra’s starting price indicates a buffer if market circumstances are favorable. While it represents a tiny increase over the previous season’s halfway, it may assist farmers in managing these tumultuous times. Milk solids are the true breadwinner; even modest price changes might mean the difference between profit and loss. Fonterra’s milk prices’ potential benefits should give you hope and optimism in these challenging times.

With these stakes, farmers must stay vigilant and adjust their techniques to obtain the highest price for their milk solids. Increased solids and higher milk prices might be the difference between profit and loss. Do you understand the stakes now?

Is the Weather Playing Favorites With Dairy Farmers?

According to the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), moisture levels on both islands are encouraging. Soil moisture levels on the North Island are close to historical norms, notably in the lush Waikato region, which has the country’s most significant dairy area. This is good news for pastures since it ensures they stay lush and nutritious for grazing. However, the South Island has a significantly different story. The Canterbury area, home to 20% of New Zealand’s dairy cows, is experiencing drier weather than typical. This mismatch is problematic for farmers since dry circumstances may severely influence pasture quality and milk output. However, NIWA remains hopeful, forecasting average or above-average precipitation from August to October, which might relieve some of these worries and offer optimal grazing conditions.

Will La Niña’s Wet Spell Be a Boon for Waikato’s Dairy Farmers?

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts a 70% chance of a La Niña event forming in the following months. This meteorological phenomenon is likely to provide wetter-than-usual weather, especially in the northeastern parts of the North Island, including the Waikato area. Because Waikato is New Zealand’s most significant dairy region, this enhanced rainfall has the potential to boost grazing considerably. The moist pastures will benefit dairy producers by possibly increasing milk output and helping to offset any early-season milk solids deficiency. La Niña’s prolonged rains may boost soil moisture levels, resulting in a more stable environment for cattle. This is especially important since Waikato’s historical soil moisture standards are already favorable, and more precipitation would only increase the viability of dairy production in the area. Understanding these potential benefits can help you plan your operations more effectively.

Are Shifts in Global Trade Unsettling New Zealand’s Dairy Dominance?

New Zealand remains a dominant player in the global dairy market, esteemed as the top exporter of dairy products worldwide. The importance of these overseas sales cannot be emphasized since they are critical to the health of the nation’s dairy sector. However, changes in export patterns have started to alter the balance. Have you seen recent shifts in trading between China and Algeria?

New Zealand’s whole milk powder exports increased 7.4% year through June compared to January to June 2023. However, despite this increased tendency, sales to China and Algeria, who have long been the biggest consumers, have fallen dramatically. This decline is particularly concerning since China’s decreased imports amount to a significant volume—about 150,000 metric tons, or 1.3 million metric tons of milk equivalent [Rabobank Report]. Understanding these changes in export patterns can help you anticipate potential shifts in global dairy prices and adjust your strategies accordingly.

This structural transition, which refers to the ongoing changes in the global dairy market, is expected to cause considerable issues for New Zealand and the worldwide dairy industry. As more New Zealand goods flood the market, finding alternative purchasers becomes urgent but challenging. Given that milk output in the United States is declining and growth in Europe has halted, how will this shift in export destinations affect global dairy prices? The interaction may prevent prices from rising too quickly, preserving a fragile balance among smaller supply pools. Understanding this concept can help you navigate the changing market dynamics more effectively.

The Bottom Line

As the 2024-25 milking season begins, New Zealand’s dairy producers are dealing with a sluggish start. The minor decrease in milk output and the more alarming reduction in milk solids are accompanied by bleak outlooks for quick recovery. Fonterra’s price raises hopes, but breaking even remains a significant problem. Weather conditions seem encouraging in some areas, but variability prevails, adding another element of uncertainty. Global trade patterns are altering, putting further strain on a fragile equilibrium.

Farmers must remain aware and adaptable, using novel techniques to overcome growing prices and fluctuating markets. The future of New Zealand’s dairy business will depend on how well farmers adjust to these changing difficulties. With sustainability becoming a worldwide priority, how will you adapt to shifting conditions?

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The Death of Small US Dairy Farms: An Autopsy Report

Uncover the factors driving the decline of small US dairy farms, examine the resulting economic and environmental repercussions, and consider actionable policy strategies for their resurgence.

Consider an urgent problem in rural America, akin to a crime scene that demands immediate attention. The victims in this case are the small dairy farms, historically the backbone of their communities, now struggling against the dominance of larger businesses. As investigators, we meticulously examine the dramatic shifts in the U.S. dairy business over the past few decades. Let’s delve into the reasons, effects, and remedies for the urgent revival of small dairy farms.

The downturn not only affects farmers but also tears at the fabric of rural America, impacting the entire community. We’ll delve into the core reasons, analyze the economic and environmental consequences, and strongly advocate for legislative changes to ensure a more sustainable future for small dairy farms. We want to underscore the critical efforts needed to revitalize and maintain small dairy farms nationwide for the sake of these communities.

YearNumber of Small DairiesNumber of Large DairiesAverage Cows per Small DairyAverage Cows per Large Dairy
199771,0325,19850500
200751,0127,48070700
201727,41510,053100900
202224,08212,0221201,000

Economic and Environmental Strains: The Twin Burdens of Small Dairy Farms

Small dairy farmers confront complex economic challenges that are only getting worse. Since 1998, these farms have generated cumulative 10-year net returns of less than -$10/cwt, indicating ongoing financial duress. In 2023, volatile market circumstances exacerbated these issues, including a significant market drop and increased feed and fuel expenses. Small dairies are struggling to thrive, and many are leaving the business.

Meanwhile, the expansion of large-scale dairy farms has severe environmental repercussions. Mega-dairies, with herds ranging from 1,000 to 25,000 cows, currently provide more than 70% of US milk. Large farms benefit from economies of scale but contribute to climate change by increasing methane emissions. They also create significant air and water pollution, endangering the health of adjacent residents and poisoning local water sources.

The Relentless Decline of Family-Scale Farms: Economic Hardships in the US Dairy Industry

Small farms struggle financially with growing production costs that outpace milk prices. The typical American dairy farm has only been profitable twice in the previous two decades, leaving small-scale farmers in heavy debt.

Small farmers are experiencing increased production costs that surpass milk prices. Many small-scale farmers are in debt, barely making two profits in the past two decades. Sarah Lloyd, a Wisconsin dairy farmer, said, “The consolidation of the dairy industry has siphoned life out of rural America.” Small farms suffer financial collapse, resulting in mounting debts, bankruptcies, and farmer suicides. The socioeconomic fabric of rural communities deteriorates, emphasizing the necessity for a significant rethink of dairy policy.

As small farms falter, they risk financial devastation, rising debts, bankruptcies, and farmer suicides. The socioeconomic fabric of rural communities deteriorates, emphasizing the critical need for a complete revision of dairy policy to protect small-scale farmers against monopolistic corporations.

YearTotal Dairy FarmsMilk Production (Billion Pounds)Average Operating Margin (%)Dairy Exports (Billion USD)
200370,3751703%0.77
200862,5001892%3.0
201349,3312011.5%5.5
201837,4682181%5.6
202236,1042200.5%6.3

The Monopolistic Squeeze: How Dairy Cooperatives Are Reshaping the Industry

The growing concentration of the dairy business, with Dairy Farmers of America (DFA), Land O’Lakes, and California Dairies owning 83% of milk sales, has marginalized small-scale farms, driving them to the edge. Rising production costs and low milk prices put small dairy producers at a competitive disadvantage, undermining the sector’s variety and resilience. Family farms must choose whether to develop or abandon an enterprise passed down through generations.

Dairy cooperatives primarily cater to larger dairies, reinforcing the consolidation cycle and exacerbating challenges for smaller operations. These cooperatives can negotiate better prices and establish strong supply chains that benefit large-scale producers, but smaller farms lack the volume to leverage the same benefits. This discrepancy manifests in various ways: 

  • Bulk Pricing Models: Cooperatives offer pricing models favoring high-volume producers, making it hard for smaller farms to compete.
  • Priority Access: Larger dairies enjoy priority access to cooperative resources, leaving smaller farms with limited support.
  • Logistical Support: Infrastructure built by cooperatives caters to large producers, providing inadequate support for smaller farms.
  • Market Influence: Cooperatives’ market influence shapes industry policies to the advantage of larger operations, sidelining smaller competitors.

This emphasis on bigger dairies feeds a vicious cycle in which small farmers struggle to stay in business. Optimized resource arrangements for large-scale production hurt small farmers’ livelihoods and the fabric of rural communities that rely on them.

From Stability to Strain: How 2000s Policy Shifts Unraveled the US Dairy Industry

In the early 2000s, U.S. dairy policy experienced significant changes: 

  • End of Dairy Price Supports: These supports once provided a safety net for small farms. Their removal led to financial instability.
  • End of Grain Supply Management: Previously, policies kept feed prices stable. Their discontinuation increased feed costs, squeezing small farms’ profit margins.
  • Export-Focused Policies: Aimed to integrate U.S. dairy products into the global market, favoring large-scale, industrial farms.
  • Economies of Scale: Larger farms could produce milk cheaper, putting small farms at a competitive disadvantage.

These developments weakened family-owned dairies, compelling them to expand or leave the sector. The new laws hastened the demise of small farms, driving the US dairy sector toward large-scale, export-oriented production.

Strategic Policy Solutions: A Multifaceted Approach to Revitalize Small Dairy Farms

Experts support strategic initiatives to fight the demise of small dairy farmers. Implementing a federal supply management scheme may help to balance supply and demand while preventing export market flooding. Legislative efforts to block agricultural mergers and abolish industrial farms by 2040 are critical. Restoring supply management and revamping the rural safety net in the following agricultural Bill is vital. Setting mandatory objectives for reducing greenhouse gas and methane emissions will help to reduce environmental damage. Requiring dairy corporations to disclose emissions and meet science-based objectives would increase accountability while revitalizing local dairy farms and ensuring their economic and ecological viability.

In addition to legislation, education, and assistance activities are critical for helping small dairy producers adapt to changing market circumstances. Farmers might benefit from programs that teach them financial literacy and business management skills. Furthermore, giving grants and low-interest loans will provide crucial financial assistance, focusing on improving agricultural infrastructure, promoting sustainable practices, and innovating technologies to reduce efficiency and environmental effects.

Community support and consumer awareness are essential. Promoting locally produced dairy products and educating customers about the advantages of small farms may increase demand and provide a competitive advantage. Establishing farmer cooperatives may give greater market access, reduced expenses, and more substantial bargaining power versus more prominent corporations.

Promoting research and development in sustainable dairy farming is vital. This involves establishing feed techniques to minimize methane emissions, investigating alternative energy, and strengthening resistance to climate change. Public-private collaborations may spur innovation, allowing farmers to remain profitable while adjusting to environmental problems.

Mental health and well-being services for farmers and their families must not be disregarded. The stressors of farming may substantially influence personal health, so guaranteeing access to mental health services and establishing community support networks is essential.

To resuscitate and maintain small dairy farms, a multidimensional strategy that includes regulatory change, financial assistance, community participation, and sustainable practices is required. This comprehensive approach provides a roadmap to preserving a crucial agricultural environment component while encouraging a more resilient and responsible dairy business.

The Bottom Line

The decline of small dairy farms in the United States is being pushed by constant economic pressures and legislative choices that favor large-scale enterprises. These dynamics have significantly weakened the profitability of family-scale farms, necessitating major regulatory adjustments. Reforms should attempt to stabilize the market and provide a more fair and sustainable future for the dairy sector. This paper demonstrates that the demise of small US dairy farms is not a natural development but rather a significant result of purposeful decisions and institutional biases. Without immediate legislative reforms, mega-dairies will dominate US agriculture, threatening small farmers, the environment, and rural communities. Revitalizing small dairy farms would need a comprehensive strategy addressing the underlying reasons for their decline. This research emphasizes the critical need for focused initiatives to restore America’s dairy legacy.

Key Takeaways:

  • The US dairy industry has seen significant consolidation, with small dairy farms declining sharply while large-scale operations dominate the market.
  • Financial pressures, driven by prolonged negative net returns and rising input costs, have severely affected small dairy farms.
  • Changing consumer preferences, particularly among younger generations, have led to decreased dairy milk consumption and increased demand for plant-based alternatives.
  • The shift towards larger dairy operations has exacerbated environmental issues, including higher methane emissions and pollution, adversely affecting local communities.
  • Current federal policies, while providing some support, are often inadequate to address the unique challenges faced by small dairy farms.
  • Proposed policy solutions include implementing federal supply management, banning factory farms, enhancing the farm safety net, and setting binding emissions targets for the agriculture sector.
  • Comprehensive policy reforms are essential for creating a sustainable and equitable dairy industry, benefiting both small farmers and the environment.

Summary:

Small dairy farmers in the US face significant economic and environmental challenges, with a cumulative 10-year net return of less than -$10/cwt since 1998. In 2023, volatile market circumstances exacerbated these issues, leading to a significant market drop and increased feed and fuel expenses. Large-scale dairy farms, which provide over 70% of US milk, contribute to climate change by increasing methane emissions and creating significant air and water pollution. Small farms struggle financially with growing production costs that outpace milk prices, leaving them in heavy debt. The socioeconomic fabric of rural communities deteriorates, emphasizing the need for a complete revision of dairy policy to protect small-scale farmers against monopolistic corporations. Dairy cooperatives primarily cater to larger dairies, reinforcing the consolidation cycle and exacerbating challenges for smaller operations. Strategic policy solutions include implementing a federal supply management scheme, legislative efforts to block agricultural mergers and abolish industrial farms by 2040, restoring supply management and revamping the rural safety net, setting mandatory objectives for reducing greenhouse gas and methane emissions, requiring dairy corporations to disclose emissions and meet science-based objectives, education, and community support.

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