How are soaring temperatures impacting dairy production and milk supply? Discover the challenges faced by farmers and the market shifts affecting your dairy products.
For America’s dairy producers, the increasingly sizzling summers are a testament to their resilience. Despite the rising heat and humidity that create severe difficulties for the dairy business, these farmers continue to persevere. The unrelenting heat may compromise cow comfort and lower milk output, but these dedicated individuals are finding ways to adapt. Their efforts, even in the face of the worst conditions in decades, are a source of inspiration. They are proving that even in this heat, cows can still produce.
Tightening of Spot Milk Availability: A Dire Shift for Dairy Processors
| Month | Average Price ($/cwt) | Year-Over-Year Change | Five-Year Average ($/cwt) |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 21.87 | +3.5% | 19.30 |
| February | 20.75 | -2.0% | 19.60 |
| March | 22.15 | +1.8% | 19.80 |
| April | 23.05 | +4.2% | 20.00 |
| May | 24.00 | +5.1% | 20.20 |
The lack of spot milk availability is rather apparent. Dairy Market News notes a shortfall of extra shipments even during last week’s vacation. As temperatures climb and cow comfort falls, Midwest milk workers find it challenging to meet demand. Usually, there would be a surplus, but this season provides few choices. Against the five-year average of about $2.70/cwt discounts, processors seeking spot cargoes of milk now face expenses averaging 50¢ above Class III. This sudden shift draws attention to the mounting strain in the dairy sector.
Improvement in Milk Margins: A Double-Edged Sword for Dairy Farmers
| Month | Milk Margin 2023 ($/cwt) | Milk Margin 2024 ($/cwt) | Change ($/cwt) |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | $8.90 | $9.60 | +$0.70 |
| February | $8.30 | $10.10 | +$1.80 |
| March | $8.50 | $10.05 | +$1.55 |
| April | $8.75 | $9.60 | +$0.85 |
| May | $9.60 | $10.52 | +$0.92 |
Despite the better milk margins recorded by USDA’s Dairy Margin Coverage program, the financial environment for dairy farmers is not without its challenges. The Milk Margin Over Feed Cost climbed to $10.52 per hundredweight (cwt) in May, a noteworthy 92%-increase from April, the highest number since November 2022. This increase has helped dairy producers relax some of their financial load. However, various economic hurdles include high interest rates, increased borrowing costs, and limited operational investment. Further impeding development are low heifer supplies necessary for herd expansion, replenishment, and high meat costs. As such, increasing milk production presents significant difficulties even with improved profits.
Significant Decline in Dairy Powder Production: A Paradoxical Market Stability
| Month | NDM Production (Million lbs) | SMP Production (Million lbs) |
|---|---|---|
| January 2024 | 120.5 | 95.3 |
| February 2024 | 115.2 | 90.1 |
| March 2024 | 118.7 | 92.8 |
| April 2024 | 112.3 | 88.6 |
| May 2024 | 109.4 | 86.5 |
The effects on dryers have been notable; nonfat dry milk (NDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) output shows a clear drop. The industry’s difficulties were highlighted in May when the combined production of these powders dropped by 15.9% year over year. Over the first five months of 2024, NDM and SMP’s combined production fell to a decade-low. Still, NDM rates have remained highly constant, varying within a small 20′ range over the previous 17 months. Tepid demand balances the limited supply and preserves market equilibrium, providing this stability.
Volatile Dairy Export Markets Take a Hit: Mexico and Southeast Asia Push NDM and SMP Exports to Record Lows
| Month | NDM Exports (Million Pounds) | SMP Exports (Million Pounds) |
|---|---|---|
| January | 150.2 | 33.1 |
| February | 130.4 | 31.7 |
| March | 120.9 | 29.3 |
| April | 140.3 | 32.5 |
| May | 133.6 | 30.6 |
The dairy sector has been severely disrupted by the decline in NDM and SMP exports, which has been made worse by a dramatic reduction in demand from Mexico and Southeast Asia. The lowest for May since 2017, shipments of NDM and SMP dropped 24.2% year over year to barely 133.6 million pounds. The drop occurred mainly due to a notable 18.3% annual fall in sales to Mexico. Orders have also notably dropped in key markets in Southeast Asia. This crisis exposes dairy export markets’ sensitivity to trade dynamics and regional economic situations.
Butter Market Soars Amid Supply Constraints: Elevated Prices Highlight Unyielding Demand
Reflecting a robust historical figure, the butter market has maintained high prices at $3.10 per pound. Fundamental causes include:
- Limited cream supply from the summer heat.
- Growing competition from Class II users.
- An aggravating cream shortage.
Notwithstanding these limitations, May’s 4% year-over-year growth in butter output points to strong demand. These supply problems disturb the churns, yet the market needs more butter to satisfy industrial and consumer requirements.
A Tale of Two Cheeses: Italian Varieties Surge While Cheddar Falters
| Cheese Type | Production Change (Year over Year) | Key Influences |
|---|---|---|
| Italian Varieties | +4.4% | Rising Demand, Improved Margins |
| Cheddar | -9.7% | Lack of Available Supplies, Market Fluctuations |
Cheese manufacturing is undergoing a significant shift, reflecting the impact of changing consumer tastes. Italian variants like Parmesan and Mozzarella are witnessing a 4.4% spike in May, indicating the evolving market. On the other hand, Cheddar’s output is falling, plagued by declining milk supplies and growing manufacturing costs. This shift in consumer preferences is a crucial factor that the industry needs to be aware of and prepared for. As global consumers search for less expensive options, present high costs might restrict exports in the future.
Whey Markets Surge: Breaking Through the 50¢ Barrier
| Month | Price per Pound | Volume Traded (Loads) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| May | 47¢ | 25 | Stable |
| June | 48.5¢ | 22 | Slight Increase |
| July | 50¢ | 30 | Increase |
| August | 51¢ | 28 | Stable |
This week, the whey markets performed well, surpassing the 50¢ per pound threshold for the first time since February. Monday’s slight decrease was followed by Tuesday’s and Thursday’s price increases. With three cargoes exchanged, dried whey prices on Friday had risen 1.75% from the previous week to 51¢ per pound. Manufacturers concentrate on value-added goods such as whey protein isolates and high protein whey protein concentrates, even if regular cheese output drives constant whey manufacturing. This change reduces dry whey output and will probably help near-term pricing.
USDA’s July Report: Sobering Projections Amid Flood-Induced Uncertainty
The July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates published by the USDA provide a mixed picture of the maize and soybean output for 2024/25. Increased acreage causes estimates of corn output to rise by 1.6%, but greater use and exports lower ending stockpiles. Conversely, lower starting stocks and less acreage caused soybean output to drop by 0.3%, resulting in declining ending stocks.
While soybean meal prices held at $330 per ton, USDA shaved the average farm price prediction by 10¢ for both commodities, bringing corn to $4.30 per bushel and soybeans to $11.10 per bushel. This ought to keep feed expenses under control. However, recent extreme flooding in the Midwest, particularly along the Mississippi River, has severely disrupted crop output, possibly rendering up to one million acres of maize useless with little likelihood of replanting. These difficulties might cause feed price volatility, changing the economic environment for dairy producers and other agricultural sector players.
The Bottom Line
Modern dairy markets must contend with changing market dynamics, economic instability, and climate change. Rising heat and humidity have put cow comfort and milk output under pressure, therefore affecting spot milk supply. High borrowing rates, heifer shortage, beef pricing, and better margins all help to limit milk output. Extreme weather influences market stability and dairy output: the declining dairy powder output and butter and cheese market volatility highlight sector instability. Unpredictable availability and significant price fluctuations are resulting from supply restrictions and competition. Dampened demand from Mexico and Southeast Asia complicates matters, especially for skim milk powder and nonfat dry milk. The future of the dairy sector depends on changing consumer tastes, economic pressures, and environmental issues. To guarantee a robust and sustainable future for dairy, stakeholders must innovate for sustainability by adopting adaptive practices.
Key Takeaways:
- Milk production has declined due to high temperatures affecting cow comfort.
- Spot milk availability has tightened significantly, with handlers in the Midwest struggling to find excess loads.
- The price of spot milk is averaging 50¢ over Class III, compared to a five-year average discount of $2.70/cwt.
- US milk supply has been trailing prior year levels for almost a year on a liquid basis.
- May Milk Margin Over Feed Cost reached $10.52/cwt., the highest since November 2022.
- Despite improved margins, producer expansion is limited by high interest rates, heifer scarcity, and elevated beef prices.
- Milk supplies are tightest for dryers, with NDM/SMP production down markedly and cumulative production at its lowest in a decade.
- NDM prices have remained stable despite low production, ending the week at $1.18/lb.
Summary:
Rising heat and humidity in America have put cow comfort and milk output under pressure, affecting spot milk availability. Dairy producers are adapting to these challenges, with processors facing expenses averaging 50¢ above Class III. The Milk Margin Over Feed Cost increased by 92% in May, the highest number since November 2022. High interest rates, increased borrowing costs, and limited operational investment are also impeding development. Low heifer supplies for herd expansion and replenishment are causing difficulties. Dairy powder production has declined significantly, with nonfat dry milk (NDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) output dropping by 15.9% year over year. The volatile dairy export markets have taken a hit, with Mexico and Southeast Asia pushing NDM and SMP exports to record lows. The butter market maintains high prices at $3.10 per pound due to limited cream supply, growing competition from Class II users, and an aggravating cream shortage.
USDA Proposes Return to ‘Higher-Of’ Method for Fluid Milk Pricing: What It Means for Dairy Farmers
Learn how USDA’s plan to bring back the ‘higher-of’ method for milk pricing might affect farmers. Will this change help dairy producers? Find out more.
The USDA plans to bring back the ‘higher-of’ pricing method for fluid milk, a move intended to modernize federal dairy policy based on a comprehensive 49-day hearing that evaluated numerous industry proposals. This method picks the higher price between Class III (cheese) and Class IV (butter and powder) milk, which could signify a notable shift for the dairy industry. Previously, the 2018 Farm Bill had replaced the ‘higher-of’ system with an ‘average-of’ pricing formula, averaging Class III and IV prices with an additional 74 cents. While switching back might benefit farmers, it also introduces risks like negative producer price differentials in 2020 and 2021. The USDA’s proposal seeks to mitigate these challenges and provide farmers financial gains amidst modern dairy economics’ complexities.
Understanding the Federal Milk Marketing Order (FMMO) System
The Federal Milk Marketing Order (FMMO) system, established in 1937, plays a crucial role in ensuring fair and competitive dairy pricing. It mandates minimum milk prices based on end use, providing price stability for dairy farmers and processors across the U.S. Each FMMO represents a distinct marketing area, coordinating pricing and sales practices.
The ‘higher-of’ pricing method for Class I (fluid) milk has long been integral to this system. It sets the Class I price using the higher Class III (cheese) or Class IV (butter and powder) price, offering a financial safeguard against market volatility. This method ensures dairy producers receive a fair price despite market fluctuations.
However, the 2018 Farm Bill introduced an ‘average-of’ formula, using the average of Class III and IV prices plus 74 cents. While aimed at modernizing milk pricing, this change exposed farmers to greater risk and reduced earnings in volatile periods like 2020 and 2021.
A Marathon Analysis: Unraveling Modern Dairy Policy over 49 Days in Indiana
The marathon hearing in Indiana highlighted the complexities of modern dairy policy. Spanning 49 days, from Aug. 23, 2023, to Jan. 30, it reviewed nearly two dozen industry proposals. This intensive process reflected the sophisticated and multifaceted Federal Milk Marketing Order system as stakeholders debated diverse views and intricate data to influence future milk pricing.
Decoding Dairy Dilemmas: The “Higher-Of” vs. “Average-Of” Pricing Methods
The “higher-of” and “average-of” pricing methods are central to understanding their impact on farmers’ incomes. The “higher-of” process, which uses the greater of the Class III (cheese) price or Class IV (butter and powder) price, has historically provided a safety net against dairy market fluctuations. This method ensured farmers got a better price, potentially safeguarding their income during volatile times. Yet, it increased the risk of negative producer price differentials, which reduced earnings in 2020 and 2021.
On the other hand, the “average-of” method, introduced by the 2018 Farm Bill, calculates the price as the average of Class III and IV prices plus 74 cents. While this seems balanced and predictable, it often fails to deliver the highest financial return when either Class III or IV prices exceed expectations. Farmers have noted that this method might not reflect their costs and economic challenges in volatile markets.
The “higher-of” method often offers better financial outcomes during favorable market conditions but brings increased uncertainty during unstable periods. Conversely, the “average-of” method offers stability but may miss optimal pricing opportunities. This debate within the dairy industry over the best formula to support farmers’ livelihoods continues. Thus, the USDA’s proposal to revert to the “higher-of” method invites mixed feelings among farmers, whose earnings and economic stability are closely tied to these pricing mechanisms.
Examining the Potential Implications of the USDA’s Return to the ‘Higher-Of’ Pricing Method
The USDA’s return to the ‘higher-of’ pricing method, while potentially beneficial, also presents some challenges that the industry needs to be aware of. This approach, favoring the higher Class III (cheese) or Class IV (butter and powder) prices, seems more beneficial than the ‘average-of’ formula. However, deeper insights indicate potential challenges that need to be carefully considered.
The ‘higher-of’ method usually leads to higher fluid milk prices but poses the risk of negative producer price differentials (PPDs). When the Class I price far exceeds the average of the underlying class prices, PPDs can become negative, as seen during the harsh economic times of 2020 and 2021, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Negative PPDs can hit farmers’ financial stability, making it harder to predict income and manage cash flows. This reflects the delicate balance between gaining higher milk prices now and ensuring long-term financial reliability.
The 24-month rolling adjuster for extended-shelf-life milk introduces further uncertainty. Its effect on milk pricing needs to be clarified, potentially causing fluctuating incomes for farmers in this segment.
In conclusion, while the ‘higher-of’ pricing method may offer immediate benefits, risks like negative PPDs and uncertain impacts on extended-shelf-life milk pricing demand careful consideration. Farmers must balance these factors with their financial strategies and long-term sustainability plans.
New Horizons for ESL Milk: Navigating the 24-Month Rolling Adjuster Amidst Market Uncertainties
Under the USDA’s new proposal, regular fluid milk will revert to the ‘higher-of’ pricing. In contrast, extended-shelf-life (ESL) milk will follow a different path. The plan introduces a 24-month rolling adjuster for ESL milk to stabilize prices for these longer-lasting products.
Yet, this change brings uncertainties. Laurie Fischer, CEO of the American Dairy Coalition, questions the impact on farmers. The 24-month adjuster is untested, making it difficult to foresee its effects amid fluctuating market conditions. ESL milk’s unique production and logistics further complicate predictions.
Critics warn that the lack of historical data makes it hard to judge whether this method will help or hurt farmers. There’s concern that it could create more price disparity between regular and ESL milk, potentially straining producers reliant on ESL products. While USDA aims to tailor pricing better, its success will hinge on adapting to real-world market dynamics.
Make Allowance Controversy: Balancing Processor Profitability and Farmer Finances
The USDA also plans to increase the make allowance, a credit to dairy processors to cover rising manufacturing costs. This adjustment aims to ensure processors are adequately compensated to sustain profitability and operational efficiency, which is expected to benefit the entire dairy supply chain.
However, this proposal has drawn substantial criticism. Laurie Fischer, CEO of the American Dairy Coalition, argues that the increased make allowance effectively reduces farmers’ milk checks, disadvantaging them financially.
Pivotal Adjustments and Economic Realignment in Dairy Pricing Formulas
The USDA’s proposal adjusts pricing formulas to match advancements in milk component production since 2000. This update ensures that farmers receive fair compensation for their contributions.
The proposal also revises Class I differential values for all counties to reflect current economic realities. This is essential for maintaining fair compensation for the higher costs of serving the fluid milk market. By reevaluating these differentials, the USDA aims to align the Federal Milk Marketing Order system with today’s economic landscape.
Recalibrating Cheese Pricing: Transition to 40-pound Cheddar Blocks Only
Another critical change in USDA’s proposal is the shift in the cheese pricing system. Monthly average cheese prices will now be based solely on 40-pound cheddar blocks instead of including 500-pound cheddar barrels. This aims to streamline the process and more accurately reflect market values, impacting various stakeholders in the dairy industry.
Initial Reactions from Industry Leaders: Balancing Optimism with Key Concerns
Initial reactions from crucial industry organizations reveal a mix of cautious optimism and significant concerns. The National Milk Producers Federation (NMPF) showed preliminary approval, noting that USDA’s proposal incorporates many of their requested changes. On the other hand, Laurie Fischer, CEO of the American Dairy Coalition, raised concerns about the make allowance updates and the impact of extended-shelf-life milk pricing, fearing it might hurt farmers’ earnings.
Structured Engagement: Navigating the 60-Day Comment Period and Ensuing Voting Procedure
To advance its proposal, USDA will open a 60-day public comment period, allowing stakeholders and the public to share insights, concerns, and support. This process ensures that diverse voices within the dairy industry are heard and considered. Once the comment period ends, USDA will review the feedback to gain a comprehensive understanding of industry perspectives, informing the finalization of the proposal.
Afterward, the USDA will decide based on the collected data and input. However, the process continues with a voting procedure where farmers pooled under each Federal Milk Marketing Order (FMMO) cast votes to approve or reject the proposed amendments. Each Federal Order, representing different regions, will vote individually.
This voting process is crucial, as it directly determines the outcome of the proposed changes. For adoption, a two-thirds majority approval within each Federal Order is required. Suppose a Federal Order fails to meet this threshold. In that case, USDA may terminate the order, leading to significant changes in how milk pricing is managed in that region. This democratic approach ensures that the final policies reflect majority support within the dairy farming community, aiming for fair and sustainable outcomes.
Regional Impacts: Navigating the Complex Landscape of FMMO System Changes
The proposed changes to the Federal Milk Marketing Order (FMMO) system are bound to impact various regions differently, given each Federal Order’s unique economic landscape. Federal Order 1, covering most New England, eastern New York, New Jersey, Delaware, southeastern Pennsylvania, and most of Maryland, may benefit from more favorable fluid milk pricing due to the higher-of method. With significant urban markets, this region could see advantages from updated Class I differential values addressing the increased costs of serving these areas.
On the other hand, Federal Order 33—encompassing western Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Indiana—might witness mixed outcomes. This area has substantial dairy manufacturing, especially in cheese and butter production, which could gain from the new cheese pricing method focusing on 40-pound cheddar blocks. However, the higher make allowance might stir controversy, potentially cutting farmers’ earnings despite adjustments for rising manufacturing costs.
The future remains uncertain for western New York and most of Pennsylvania’s mountain counties, which any Federal Order does not cover. These areas could feel indirect effects from the new proposals, particularly the revised pricing formulas and allowances, which could impact local milk processing and producer price differentials.
While the higher-of-pricing method may benefit farmers by securing better fluid milk prices, the regional impacts will hinge on each Federal Order’s specific economic activities and market structures. Stakeholders must examine the proposed changes closely to gauge their potential benefits and drawbacks.
The Bottom Line
The USDA’s push to reinstate the ‘higher-of’ pricing method for fluid milk marks a decisive moment for the dairy industry. The 49-day hearing in Indiana underscored the complexity of the Federal Milk Marketing Order (FMMO) System. Key aspects include reverting to the ‘higher-of’ pricing from the 2018 ‘average-of’ formula, new pricing for extended-shelf-life milk, and the debate over increased make allowances. Significant updates to pricing formulas and cheese pricing methodologies were also discussed.
The forthcoming vote on these changes is critical. With the power to reshape financial outcomes for dairy farmers and processors, each Federal Order needs two-thirds approval to implement these changes. Balancing modern dairy policy advancements with fair profits for all stakeholders is at the heart of this discourse.
Ultimately, these decisions will affect dairy practices’ economic landscape and sustainability nationwide. This vote is a pivotal moment in the evolution of the American dairy industry, demanding informed participation from all involved.
Key Takeaways:
Summary:
The USDA plans to reintroduce the ‘higher-of’ pricing method for fluid milk, a move aimed at modernizing federal dairy policy. This method, which selects the higher price between Class III and Class IV milk, could be a significant shift for the dairy industry. The 2018 Farm Bill replaced the ‘higher-of’ system with an ‘average-of’ formula, averaging Class III and IV prices plus an additional 74 cents. This change could benefit farmers but also introduce risks like negative producer price differentials (PPDs). The Federal Milk Marketing Order (FMMO) system ensures fair and competitive dairy pricing, and the ‘higher-of’ method usually leads to higher fluid milk prices but also poses the risk of negative producer price differentials (PPDs). Negative PPDs can impact farmers’ financial stability, making it harder to predict income and manage cash flows. The 24-month rolling adjuster for extended-shelf-life milk introduces further uncertainty, potentially causing fluctuating incomes for farmers. The USDA’s proposal to increase the make allowance, a credit to dairy processors, has been met with criticism from industry leaders. The USDA will open a 60-day public comment period to advance its proposal. The proposed changes to the FMMO system will impact various regions differently due to each Federal Order’s unique economic landscape.
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