Find out how a stronger dollar is affecting CME cash dairy prices. Check out the latest trades and price changes for butter, blocks, barrels, etc. Want to know the specifics?
If you look at Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) cash dairy prices, you’ll notice that most categories are trending downward. This is mainly due to a stronger dollar, which typically pushes lower commodity prices, including dairy.
Here’s a quick snapshot of the current state of CME cash dairy prices:
Dry whey: Price increased by $0.0150, now at $0.4850 per pound
Cheese blocks: Decreased by $0.0175, closing at $1.8725 per pound
Cheese barrels: Fell by $0.0050, settling at $1.91 per pound
Butter: Dropped $0.0325 to $3.0325 per pound
Nonfat dry milk: Reduced by $0.0050, now at $1.1875 per pound
Dry whey rose by $0.0150 to $0.4850 per pound, with one trade recorded at this price, showing some market activity.
Cheese blocks dropped by $0.0175, settling at $1.8725 per pound. Factors like the stronger U.S. dollar and supply fluctuations are likely behind this trend, affecting the pricing and making U.S. exports less competitive.
Cheese barrels also fell by $0.0050 to $1.91 per pound. One trade was made at this price. These changes mirror those in block prices and reflect broader market adjustments.
Butter prices decreased by $0.0325 to $3.0325 per pound, which is notable compared to last week’s higher values. Six trades were made between $3.0175 and $3.0325, indicating continued market engagement despite the decline.
Nonfat dry milk experienced a slight dip of $0.0050 to $1.1875. The fact that seven trades were recorded within the $1.18 to $1.1875 range underscores the active participation in this commodity, keeping the market engaged.
The Bottom Line
On Tuesday, the CME cash dairy market predominantly witnessed lower prices, a trend largely influenced by a stronger dollar. While dry whey saw a slight increase, key dairy products like blocks, barrels, butter, and nonfat dry milk experienced a decline. Notably, sales activity was significant in butter and nonfat dry milk, reflecting the challenging market conditions for dairy prices.
Discover how milk futures signal stronger prices amid rising cheese demand and market volatility. Will this trend continue to benefit dairy producers and consumers?
The dairy markets have seen increased volatility, with Class III futures showing significant ups and downs. I mentioned this earlier, and it happened sooner than expected. Expect more volatility as summer progresses. Traders are reacting quickly to cash movements or perceived price changes. Milk futures suggest milk prices could be better than last year if spot prices remain steady. Prices will improve if demand rises and supplies tighten. Cheese inventory hasn’t exceeded last year’s levels, hinting at potential supply tightening if demand grows. Manufacturers say cheese demand is up but not enough to cut inventory.
Month
Total Cheese Exports (Metric Tons)
Change from Previous Year
Butterfat Exports (Metric Tons)
Change from Previous Year
March 2023
50,022
+20.5%
2,350
+15%
April 2023
46,271
+27%
2,881
+23%
International cheese demand has seen a remarkable improvement. In March, cheese exports surged to 50,022 metric tons, a 20.5% increase from the previous year and the highest recorded. April followed suit with a 27% rise over April 2023, reaching 46,271 metric tons, the second highest on record.
Month
Class III Closing Price (per cwt)
Price Change (%)
Market Sentiment
January
$19.20
+3.2%
Optimistic
February
$18.75
-2.3%
Neutral
March
$20.10
+7.2%
Strong
April
$21.00
+4.5%
Bullish
May
$21.25
+1.2%
Stable
June
$21.85
+2.8%
Optimistic
The outlook for cheese exports is bright, providing strong market support. Butterfat exports also jumped in April, reaching 2,881 metric tons—up 23% from last year and the first year-over-year increase since November 2022. This could lead to record-high butter prices, thanks to higher demand and the highest butter prices yet for this time of year. Increasing domestic demand and potential for rising international demand could push prices even higher.
April income over feed price was $9.60 per cwt.
Second month with no Dairy Margin Coverage program payments.
Current grain prices and milk futures suggest no future payments under the program.
Planting delays haven’t impacted grain prices.
Initial crop condition for corn is 75% good/excellent.
One of the highest initial ratings for a crop, possibly leading to a large supply and lower prices.
This could improve income over feed significantly.
Summary: Dairy markets are experiencing increased volatility, with Class III futures showing significant fluctuations. Traders react quickly to cash movements or price changes, and milk prices could improve if spot prices remain steady. Cheese inventory has not exceeded last year’s levels, suggesting potential supply tightening if demand grows. International cheese demand has seen a remarkable improvement, with cheese exports rising 20.5% in March and 27% in April. The outlook for cheese exports is bright, providing strong market support. Butterfat exports also jumped in April, reaching 2,881 metric tons, up 23% from last year and the first year-over-year increase since November 2022. This could lead to record-high butter prices due to higher demand. Income over feed price in April was $9.60 per cwt, with no Dairy Margin Coverage program payments.
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