Archive for inflationary pressures

Is Now the Best Time to Lock in Milk Prices?

Is now the right time to lock in milk prices? Learn essential strategies for dairy farmers to manage risk and boost profits.

Summary: The volatility of milk prices has many dairy farmers wondering, “Is now the time to lock in milk prices?” With Class III milk contracts trading over $22 per hundredweight (cwt.), the potential for risk management through hedging becomes enticing. Supply chain disruptions, adverse weather conditions, increased demand, global markets, and inflationary pressures drive these historical price levels, creating challenges and opportunities. Class III prices have historically varied between $13 and $16 per cwt Throughout the last decade. Locking in milk prices may secure a farmer’s financial future, enabling them to stabilize income even if market prices drop. Consulting with a broker can provide the necessary guidance to navigate these complexities and help make more informed decisions in this unpredictable market. Dairy industry Locking in milk prices isn’t just about stabilizing income; it’s a strategic move to manage risk in an unpredictable market.

  • Current Class III milk contracts are trading over $22 per hundredweight (cwt.), presenting an opportunity for risk management through hedging.
  • Factors driving these historic price levels include supply chain disruptions, adverse weather conditions, increased demand, global markets, and inflationary pressures.
  • Historically, Class III prices have varied between $13 and $16 per cwt. Over the last decade.
  • Locking in milk prices can help farmers stabilize their income even if market prices drop.
  • Consulting with a broker is essential for navigating these complexities and making informed decisions.
  • Locking in milk prices is a strategic move to manage risk in an unpredictable market.
milk prices, historic levels, forthcoming contracts, dairy producers, dairy experts, Class III milk futures, lock in milk prices, protect gains, limit risk, supply chain disruptions, adverse weather conditions, increased demand, global markets, inflationary pressures, volatile prices, market fluctuations, COVID-19 epidemic, financial future, market price, risk management, financial stability, budgeting, financial planning, consulting with a broker, dairy farmers

Are you aware milk prices have reached historic levels, hitting over $22 per hundredweight (cwt.) for forthcoming contracts? This increase creates a unique challenge and opportunity for dairy producers and experts. With such high futures market prices, the question arises: Is this the best time to lock in milk prices to protect gains and limit risk? Let’s examine why this is an important issue and possible solutions. Class III milk futures market prices are at historically high levels. This creates a strategic opportunity for farmers, allowing them to hedge their risks and take control of their earnings while proving their critical role in controlling the rise.

What’s Driving the Unprecedented Surge in Milk Prices? 

Let’s look at the present state of milk pricing on the futures market. According to the latest sources, Class III milk futures for the following months—particularly September, October, and November—are trading at about $22 per hundredweight (cwt). This historically uncommon level indicates potentially good circumstances for dairy producers, providing a ray of light in an otherwise difficult market. This pricing increase can potentially deliver significant advantages to the sector, giving grounds for hope.

Recent market data indicates a significant gain over the previous quarter. A few months ago, Class III milk prices hovered around $18-$19 a cwt. This growing tendency has raised eyebrows and sparked hope across the sector. Recent research suggests that numerous reasons might be driving these very high prices.

First and foremost, supply chain disruptions have had a considerable impact. Post-pandemic recovery efforts have raised transportation costs and delays, affecting every aspect of the dairy supply chain. Adverse weather conditions in vital dairy-producing areas have reduced milk production levels.

Demand has also shifted. The reopening of restaurants and food services has increased dairy demand, particularly cheese and other Class III milk goods. Global markets can influence pricing. For example, increasing export demand owing to lower supply in other key exporting nations such as New Zealand has boosted US milk prices.

Furthermore, inflationary pressures raise input costs for feed and other agricultural necessities, causing farmers to seek higher prices to remain profitable. Given the present economic context, it is advisable to consider locking in these prices as a buffer against any decline.

These reasons contribute to the present high price of Class III milk contracts. Understanding these variables allows dairy producers to better judge whether to lock in milk prices. This information provides them with viable tactics for managing the rise, ensuring they are ready for market situations.

Why Understanding Historical Context is Crucial 

To completely understand the present rise in milk costs, it is necessary to consider the historical backdrop. Monitoring past averages better explains why current situations offer ample opportunity. Historically, Class III milk prices have been quite volatile. For example, prices have consistently varied between $13 and $16 per hundredweight (cwt.) throughout the last decade, with noticeable peaks and troughs.

One of the most essential peaks happened in September 2014, when prices reached a record $24.60 per cwt. In May 2020, however, prices fell to roughly $12.14 per cwt due to market disruptions caused by the COVID-19 epidemic. These changes emphasize the dairy market’s inherent risks and uncertainties.

We’re approaching record highs, with futures trading at $22 per cwt. When compared to the average price of about $16 per cwt. Today’s numbers are undoubtedly the most notable over the previous decade. This background highlights the possible risk-management benefits of locking in pricing today. Securing these relatively high prices may help protect against any market downturns.

Furthermore, the present market is formed by several other variables, including supply chain interruptions and growing global demand, which add another element of unpredictability. Given these dynamics and the historical background, locking in milk prices now might be prudent to secure your financial future.

Locking In Milk Prices: Understanding the Basics 

Look at locking in milk pricing and how it affects a farmer’s revenue.

Imagine you are a dairy farmer. You’re concerned about market volatility, which might make your income uncertain. Locking in pricing via the futures market enables you to establish your milk price ahead of time, decreasing unpredictability.

Here’s an example: 

  • Scenario 1: You set a price of $22 per hundredweight (cwt) for your milk. Later, if the market price falls to $18 per cwt, you will still get your locked-in price. You make more than the current market worth.
  • Scenario 2: If the market price climbs to $25 per cwt, the locked-in price will result in a lower payout. However, this situation allows you to prevent the possible revenue loss if prices unexpectedly collapse.
  • Scenario 3: The effect is minor if the market price remains close to your locked-in pricing. You enjoy peace of mind knowing that your income will not change much.

Understand that this is not risk-free. While locking in prices may protect against falls, it may also result in losing out on more considerable earnings if market prices rise. Consulting with a broker may help you navigate these waters more successfully.

The Strategic Advantages of Locking in Milk Prices 

Locking in milk prices has various significant benefits, notably in risk management and financial stability. Farmers may protect themselves from market volatility by getting a predetermined product price. This assurance is helpful regarding budgeting and financial planning.

Consider the situation of John, a dairy farmer in Wisconsin. John set his milk rates at $20 per cwt for the second half of 2022. When the market price fell to $18 per cwt due to unanticipated global economic events, such as a sudden drop in demand or an increase in production costs, John could retain his income expectations. “Locking in prices gave me peace of mind,” John said. “I didn’t have to worry about the market fluctuations impacting my bottom line.”

Industry analysts share this attitude. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack states, “Farmers who lock in their prices can navigate uncertain markets with greater confidence.” They are protected from sharp price declines and the financial pressure that such changes may cause” [source: USDA Report on Dairy Futures, 2023].

The benefits of these strategies are apparent from the statistics. University of Minnesota research indicated that dairy producers who used price-hedging tactics had a 15% lower revenue volatility than those who did not. This means their income was more stable and predictable, even in a fluctuating market. Furthermore, brokers claim that farmers increasingly turn to these technologies, understanding the protection they bring in an unstable market.

Financial stability is another critical advantage. When dairy farms can better estimate their revenue, making educated choices regarding equipment, feed, and other vital areas becomes more accessible. This stability may result in overall growth and increased agricultural efficiency.

Locking in milk prices gives farmers the tools to better manage risks and provides a solid financial basis for their businesses. Capitalizing on market fluctuations might be a wise step for long-term success.

The Trade-offs and Decisions Behind Locking in Milk Prices 

While locking in milk pricing provides stability, it carries several risks and concerns. The most evident danger is the possibility of lost chances. If market prices climb considerably beyond the locked-in rate, farmers will earn less than if they did not hedge. Our last example demonstrated this since a hypothetical upswing resulted in a loss in the futures market.

Another critical issue is the expense of this procedure. Brokers collect costs for each transaction, which may accumulate over time, especially if contracts are often exchanged. For example, with an average brokerage cost of $70 per transaction and each contract needing two transactions, these expenses may significantly reduce prospective earnings. These fees may have a considerable financial effect when applied to many agreements.

However, the value of talking with a broker cannot be emphasized. Brokers have essential experience and may give strategic advice specific to your circumstance. They guide farmers through the complexity of the futures market, ensuring that they make educated choices. Balancing the costs and advantages of their services is critical—after all, their experience might help you avoid expensive errors.

Finally, determining whether to lock in milk prices requires assessing the risks against the possible benefits. This is not a one-size-fits-all answer. Before making a move, farmers should consider their financial status, market prospects, and risk tolerance. Consulting a broker for tailored assistance will help you make the right option for your farm’s future.

Exploring Alternative Risk Management Strategies 

Dairy producers use various risk management measures in addition to futures contracts. Forward contracts, for example, enable farmers to sell their milk at a specified price straight to a buyer. This strategy provides price stability while avoiding the complicated dynamics of the futures market.

Another alternative is to employ future options that provide the right but not the obligation to sell milk at a specific price. This provides flexibility and a mechanism to hedge against adverse price fluctuations while still having the opportunity to profit from positive developments.

Insurance policies tailored explicitly for dairy producers are also available. These policies, such as the USDA’s Dairy Income Protection (DRP) program, may protect against sudden declines in milk prices or income, adding an extra degree of protection.

Exploring these different tactics may provide a more complete risk management strategy, enabling farmers to choose the best option based on their conditions and risk tolerance.

The Bottom Line

The basics of locking in milk prices via the futures market provide dairy producers with a possible route to stability in the face of volatile market circumstances. Whether the USDA announces an unexpected fall, a surprising upsurge, or market stability, the price-locking system acts as a risk-mitigation tool, ensuring predictable returns.

With Class III milk prices near record highs, the current market may be ideal for preemptive steps. The noted high prices provide a unique chance to lock in rates that may protect against future downturns. Partnering with a qualified broker can help you navigate the intricacies and make educated choices corresponding to your company objectives.

As you decide on the next move, remember the dairy market’s long-term tendencies and future changes. Can these high prices be maintained, or is a correction on the horizon? The answers will define your plan and may make all the difference in ensuring your farm’s profitability and stability in the volatile world of dairy farming.

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Kamala Harris Under Fire for Vague Price Gouging Ban Amid Rising Grocery Prices

How will Kamala Harris’s vague price gouging ban affect dairy farmers amid rising grocery prices? Read our expert analysis to find out.

Summary: Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris faces mounting pressure to clarify or abandon her proposal to ban “price gouging” by food and grocery companies. This initiative, aimed at countering inflation-driven price hikes, has drawn significant criticism for its lack of specific details. Stakeholders argue that Harris’s plan may be more of a political move than a feasible policy change. Even prominent Democratic economists like Jason Furman are skeptical, with Furman noting, “There’s no upside here, and there is some downside.” Given its vague framework, opponents believe the plan could lead to arbitrary enforcement and legal conflicts, increasing operational uncertainty in an unstable economic situation. The proposal’s timing and ambiguity have intensified the debate, leaving many questioning its practicality and implications for the future of the U.S. economy.

  • Kamala Harris proposes banning “price gouging” by food and grocery companies to counter inflation-driven price hikes.
  • The initiative faces criticism for lacking specific details and being potentially more political than practical.
  • Even Democratic economists, like Jason Furman, express skepticism about the plan’s benefits and possible downsides.
  • Opponents worry the vague framework could lead to arbitrary enforcement, legal conflicts, and operational uncertainty.
  • The proposal’s timing and ambiguity fuel intense debate over its practicality and potential impact on the U.S. economy.
Kamala Harris, price gouging, food stores, controversy, specific information, inflation, industries, opponents, arbitrary enforcement, legal conflicts, operational uncertainty, government prohibition, essential food commodities, economic objective, financial burden, Federal Trade Commission, inflationary pressures, excessive price hikes, enforcement policies, political undertones, broad economic intervention, voters, appearances, Canada, UK.

Are you struggling with rising food prices? You’re not alone. Food price increases have put industry experts and dairy farmers to the test. Then comes Kamala Harris’s polarizing plan to criminalize “price gouging” in grocery shops. But here’s the main question on everyone’s mind. Is Harris offering political theater or a solution? Experts and insiders have expressed concerns about Harris’ need for more detailed information, raising doubts about whether this plan would address the problem of rising expenses. This also impacts us as dairy farmers. Does it reduce or aggravate the already volatile market’s uncertainty?

Inflation and the Grocery Gambit: Navigating the 26% Surge in Food Prices 

Inflation has been a chronic problem in recent years, hurting numerous businesses, including the food industry. Since the outbreak began, grocery prices have increased by 26 percent. This significant growth has tested consumers and created an unpredictable environment for industry operators.

Supply chain disruptions, growing demand, and higher labor and raw material costs contribute to inflationary pressures. Although some factors are beyond control, they have usually reduced consumer purchasing power and squeezed supplier and grocery store profit margins.

Many firms have also had to modify their pricing practices to accommodate these situations, resulting in accusations of “reflation.” The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) has been vociferous in its efforts to curb such activities, claiming that some corporations exploit inflationary tendencies for excessive profit. As the principal federal agency in charge of implementing antitrust and consumer protection laws, the FTC is essential in ensuring fair competition and safeguarding consumers. As a result, its position on Harris’ proposal gives critical insights into the regulatory viewpoint on the subject.

Understanding “Price Gouging”: The Core of the Controversy 

So, what exactly constitutes “price gouging”? Typically, during times of crisis or high demand, businesses boost the prices of vital commodities to ludicrous levels. Imagine walking into a store to buy bottled water after a storm and seeing that the price has increased to five times their typical amount. This is actual price gouging.

It gets more problematic when this habit affects basic needs such as food, fuel, and medical supplies. For example, during the COVID-19 pandemic, there was severe price gouging. Hand sanitizers and face masks, formerly relatively inexpensive, became abruptly pricey, causing public outrage and, in some cases, government intervention.

Understanding Harris’ proposition requires acknowledging this contentious context. Although her idea aims to protect consumers from excessively high costs during poor economic times, critics argue that its vagueness leaves numerous unanswered concerns. What distinguishes “excessive” pricing increases? How will enforcement be carried out? These are only a few of the issues that have sparked ongoing debate.

Is Harris’s Price Gouging Ban Too Vague to Be Effective? 

Harris’s idea is based mainly on a government restriction on “price gouging” for essential food goods. This step aligns with her overall economic goal of reducing the financial burden on American families. The policy empowers the FTC to monitor firms that raise prices on critical commodities much above what would be reasonable given inflationary pressures. This approach is founded on the belief that some companies profit unduly from economic situations, often known as “reflation,” via exploitation. Harris’s idea seeks to safeguard customers from unjustifiable price increases, lessening the financial burden on American families.

Meanwhile, the system has been criticized for its vagueness. Although the purpose is clear—to protect consumers against unwarranted price increases—the proposal lacks details. It does not specify, for example, what constitutes “excessive” price increases or outline enforcement strategies. Furthermore, it is unclear how the FTC would determine whether price rises are legitimate responses to inflation versus those deemed predatory.

This lack of clarity causes severe worries. Critics believe the strategy might lead to arbitrary enforcement and legal issues without defined guidelines. Furthermore, enterprises may find it challenging to comply with ambiguous regulations, raising operating uncertainty in an unpredictable economic environment.

Political Maneuver or Practical Policy? Harris’s Proposal Faces Bipartisan Scrutiny 

There must be complete silence about the idea. Democratic politicians, respected economists, and business experts have all expressed strong opposition. Jason Furman, a senior economic consultant in the Obama administration, opposed the concept because it offered little benefit. “There’s no upside here, and there is some downside,” according to Furman.

Furthermore, many of Harris’ party members considered the proposal more of a political stunt than a viable strategy. They argue that more detailed information is necessary for effective implementation but speak to individuals frustrated by rising food prices. Given its extensive and genuine nature, worries linger concerning the proposal’s passage through Congress.

Industry experts also voice strong misgivings. They believe the existing strategy leaves the “price gouging” definition open, which may induce market confusion and inhibit healthy competition. The impending Kroger-Albertsons merger highlights the intricacies of the grocery industry; opponents claim that a government restriction would create more ambiguity than clarity.

Significant challenges must be overcome before Harris’ price gouging regulation can take effect. The market’s stability and consumer protection rely on more precise definitions and muscular mechanisms. Without them, the proposal risks being seen as an overreach rather than a practical solution to inflationary concerns.

Political Motivations Behind Harris’s Price Gouging Ban: Analyzing the Strategy and Implications

Examining the political implications of Harris’ idea and any comprehensive economic action is critical. Some argue that the idea is a planned measure designed to gain favor with voters increasingly feeling the sting of increased grocery prices—which have risen by 20% from pre-pandemic levels. Though they lack detailed implementation strategies, voter unhappiness provides fertile ground for policy proposals that promise relief.

Her party’s skepticism supports Harris’ claim that it may be more about appearances than reality. As part of her campaign, rising food prices are a hot subject that resonates with ordinary Americans and is politically advantageous. Harris positions herself as a consumer rights champion by addressing this issue despite the problems and ambiguities in her plan.

Kroger and Albertsons’ ongoing merger complicates the topic. Harris and other progressive Democrats have supported the FTC’s opposition to this acquisition, arguing that such consolidations reduce competition and increase prices. Meanwhile, critics say that a federal ban on price gouging, while such a significant transaction is being investigated, might result in an even more convoluted regulatory landscape. It raises questions about the logic and practicality of Harris’s broader economic strategy.

From a conservative viewpoint, this proposal may be a typical example of regulatory overreach, indicating a broader purpose of emphasizing government involvement above market-driven solutions. This policy may have unintended consequences, reducing innovation and competition in the food sector, especially the dairy industry. Professionals in related subjects and dairy farmers should carefully study the implications of such legislative moves.

Expert Opinions Highlight Concerns Over Harris’s Price-Gouging Proposal 

Professionals in many disciplines have responded to Kamala Harris’s suggestion, providing viewpoints that warn against quick adoption without considering the risks. Former senior economic adviser Jason Furman of the Obama administration called out the proposal, saying, “There’s no upside here, and there is some downside” (Source). Furman contends that the absence of thorough rules might generate further market uncertainty.

Furthermore, professionals in the field wonder whether it is possible to control pricing without leading to unanticipated effects. “Broad and ambiguous legislation targeting price gouging could exacerbate the supply chain issues we’re already facing,” National Chicken Council CEO Mike Brown said (Source). Brown thinks more explicit rules targeting supply chain enhancements might provide more significant outcomes.

Political experts also wonder whether the plan is more of a political ploy than a workable fix. Senior Brookings Institution researcher Lisa Miller said, “It’s tough to overlook the timing of this suggestion. (Source) It seems meant to satisfy current voter concerns rather than provide long-term remedies.” Miller argues that the present plan falls short regarding the thorough, bipartisan support needed for true economic transformation.

Agricultural economist Jonathan Hinsdale stresses the possible harm to farmers. “For dairy farmers, who already run on thin margins, such a policy could be disastrous if it leads to unintended price controls,” Hinsdale said (Source). Rather than general price control policies, he advises focused subsidies and incentives to support the agriculture industry properly.

These points of view highlight a shared theme. While Harris’s proposal’s intention may appeal to those annoyed by excessive supermarket costs, its implementation may only prove possible with further improvement and stakeholder involvement.

Learning from Global Perspectives: How Canada and the UK Handle Price Gouging in the Food Sector

Examining Harris’s concept of “price gouging” provides insight into how other countries address similar food market issues. Consider Canada as an example. During the pandemic, Canadian provinces imposed temporary price increases on food and other vital products. The recommendations allow authorities to penalize corporations for unjustified price rises. Although the Canadian method got mixed feedback, it protected clients from crises.

The United Kingdom is another intriguing case study. The UK government tackles unfair pricing practices via consumer protection laws, although it does not explicitly outlaw price gouging. Instead, the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) investigates and takes appropriate action to address unfair activity. These concepts have often effectively decreased exploitative pricing during inflationary periods without altering the market much.

Both countries, however, highlight a critical component missing from Harris’ plan: explicit norms of accountability and enforcement. The experiences from Canada and the United Kingdom show that, although government regulation may inhibit price gouging, comprehensive procedures are required to ensure transparency and efficacy. Without them, Harris’ idea may suffer from the same lack of practicality and clarity it already faces.

Dairy Farmers: Will Harris’s Price Gouging Ban Help or Hinder Your Operations? 

Dairy farmers may wish to know how this concept influences their business methods. Would government price-gouging legislation create more impediments, or might it assist in stabilizing input costs? Harris’s proposal might relieve some prices by lowering the excessive markup on vital commodities and the cost of feed, fuel, and other essential supplies. Reducing these expenditures may boost profit margins and provide some respite from overall inflationary pressures.

The concept has certain drawbacks, however. The proposal’s lack of definition allows for significant regulatory ambiguity, which may impact the market. Such uncertainty may discourage investment in the agricultural supply chain or drive suppliers to transfer compliance costs onto farmers, negating any intended price decrease. Furthermore, history has shown that price limitations may cause shortages because firms may reduce production to reduce losses when they cannot charge more during a supply shortage.

The Bottom Line

Examining Kamala Harris’ plan to outlaw price gouging exposes how much skepticism and criticism it has generated. What has to be determined is whether this initiative is a political gimmick or a viable legislative solution. Critics, including prominent Democratic economists, contend that the limitation is imprecise and may cause difficulties getting through Congress. Additional problems include the potential implications on food prices and dairy farmers, particularly given the Kroger-Albertsons merger.

Still, the significant issues are: Is Harris the best presidential candidate, and would her policies benefit or harm dairy producers? Implementing intelligent, pragmatic remedies becomes even more critical as inflation slows and food prices stabilize. With particular facts, it is easy to assess the potential viability of Harris’ idea. Thus, both industry participants and voters are concerned about its true impact.

When evaluating any candidate, the emphasis should be on the clarity and practicality of their economic proposals. These policies are critical for addressing the severe issues consumers and corporate leaders confront. As dairy farmers look forward, the significance of transparent and realistic policy cannot be overstated.

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Why Are UK Dairy Farmers Shutting Down? Shocking New Data Reveals Alarming Trends

Why are UK dairy farmers shutting down in record numbers? What alarming trends are driving this shift? Read on to discover the surprising data and insights.

Summary:  British dairy producers are exiting the industry at unprecedented rates, with numbers dropping by 5.8% from April 2023 to April 2024, according to an AHDB survey. This decline is due to fluctuating milk prices, high input costs, adverse weather conditions, and increased regulatory pressures. Despite the reduction in producer numbers, average milk production per farm is rising, indicating industry consolidation rather than a new trend. The North West and North of England are the most affected regions. Increasing input costs, such as a 3.5% rise in gasoline expenses, and regulatory constraints add to the challenges. Land values have also surged, with England seeing a 4% average increase in 2023, while Wales experienced a 23% rise. Despite these hurdles, yearly milk output has steadily increased due to enhanced efficiency per cow, suggesting that the future holds potential for new entrants and further efficiency improvements across the supply chain.

  • British dairy farmers have seen a 5.8% decline in numbers from the previous year.
  • Key regions affected are the North West and North of England.
  • Milk price fluctuations and rising input costs are major factors driving farmers out of the industry.
  • Fuel costs have increased by 3.5% year on year.
  • Land values rose by an average of 4% in England and 23% in Wales in 2023.
  • Despite a decline in producers, annual milk production has increased due to enhanced efficiency per cow.
  • The industry faces increasing regulatory pressures, such as environmental rules and nitrate management.
  • There is potential for new entrants, but consolidation trends are likely to continue.
  • Efforts to improve supply chain efficiency will be crucial for the future of British dairy.
British dairy farmers, decrease, rising expenses, changing milk prices, regulatory constraints, North West, North of England, fluctuated, farm profitability, discontinuing production, input costs, gasoline expenses, economic stress, tight profit margins, inflationary pressures, feed, energy inputs, land values, England, Wales, variations, operational expenses, producer numbers, cow numbers, mid-1990s, milk output, efficiency per cow, modernization, agricultural operations, productivity, new talent, dairy herd, average yields per cow, national milk production volumes, environmental rules, improve efficiency, supply chain.

Did you know British dairy farmers are leaving the sector in historic numbers? In April 2024, the UK had around 7,130 active dairy farmers, a 5.8% decrease from the previous year. This trend is more than simply a blip; it is a troubling sign of deeper concerns. Are growing expenses, changing milk prices, and regulatory constraints straining farmers to the breaking point? Let’s look at the elements behind this migration and what it implies for the future of British dairy production.

Who: British dairy producers. 

What: A significant decline in the number of dairy producers. 

When: Between April 2023 and April 2024. 

Where: Across the UK, the North West and the North of England are the most affected regions. 

Why: Multiple reasons contribute to lower milk prices relative to 2022 peaks, including cull cow prices, ongoing inflation on crucial inputs, higher interest rates, unfavorable weather conditions, regulatory constraints, and succession concerns.

How: According to the most recent AHDB survey, the number of producers decreased by 5.8%, from about 7,570 in April 2023 to 7,130 in April 2024.

RegionProducers Lost (Apr 2023 – Apr 2024)Total Producers (Apr 2024)
North West391,040
North of England22650
Midlands16800
Mid West (Devon, Somerset, Wiltshire)13620
Scotland50850
Wales40530
England (All Other Regions)2601,440
Overall4407,130

Behind the Exodus: Why Are British Dairy Farmers Calling It Quits? 

Understanding why British dairy farmers are quitting the sector requires an examination of individual variables contributing to the trend.

Milk prices have fluctuated significantly, directly affecting farm profitability. According to Freya Shuttleworth, an AHDB senior economist, “Although milk prices are historically higher, they have dropped off substantially from their peaks in 2022.” In June 2024, the average UK farmgate milk price was 38.43ppl, a significant fall from the maximum price paid in 2022 of 13.08ppl [Defra]. This variation has reduced profitability, prompting some farmers to discontinue dairy production.

Input costs have also significantly influenced the situation. Despite stabilized fertilizer prices since mid-2023, gasoline expenses have risen by 3.5% per year. This increase adds to the economic stress on farmers already dealing with tight profit margins as milk prices fall. Furthermore, inflationary pressures on feed and energy inputs worsen the problems.

Land values are another intricate problem. According to Savills’ 2024 Farmland Market study, land prices in England increased by an average of 4% in 2023, with robust availability in the north. In contrast, land prices in Wales significantly increased by 23%, marking the most significant trade activity in 23 years. Such variations in land value cause discrepancies in operational expenses, impacting farmers’ choices on whether to stay or leave the sector.

Weather conditions have also not been beneficial. Shuttleworth continued: “This coincided with some of the wettest weather on record, interrupting forage production.” Due to delayed spring turns, the requirement to house cattle earlier than usual has placed extra strain on fodder and bedding sources, raising operating expenses even higher.

The falling milk prices, increased input costs, fluctuating land values, and bad weather conditions created a challenging environment for British dairy producers. As farmers seek profitability and sustainability, these issues have led some to reevaluate their industry stance.

The Resilient Rise: Unpacking the Paradox of Increased Milk Production Amidst Industry Decline

The British dairy business has seen considerable changes during the last three decades. Producer numbers have fallen by around 70%, indicating a solid consolidation tendency in the industry. Cow numbers have decreased by around 28% since the mid-1990s, which is also noteworthy. Despite these decreases, yearly milk output has steadily increased. This paradox is linked to the persistent quest for improved efficiency per cow, which allows farmers to maintain or even increase total milk production while using fewer resources. Modernization and intentional improvements in agricultural operations have permitted this steady but continuous increase in productivity, ensuring that milk output stays stable despite industry-wide changes.

The Road Ahead: Can British Dairy Bounce Back? 

So, what does the future hold for British dairy, and how likely are producer numbers to rebound?

Shuttleworth said, “There is always room for new blood to come in, which should be encouraged.”However, the current consolidation trend is expected to continue.

“Despite dropping producer numbers, the dairy herd remains generally steady yearly. Although there has been a long-term drop in dairy cow numbers, the sector has worked hard to enhance productivity, with average yields per cow increasing and national milk production volumes remaining largely steady.

“The 2023/24 milk season finished with GB quantities down just 1.6% from the 2015/16 season, our early record, contrasted to an 11.5% drop in the milking herd at this period [January 2016 versus January 2024, ed.].

The researcher concluded that environmental rules would drive the business to improve efficiency across the whole supply chain, from farm to shelf.

The Bottom Line

The British dairy business is in upheaval, with a significant decline in active farmers. Despite historically high milk prices, the reduction has been caused chiefly by inflationary pressures, rising input costs, and regulatory constraints. Surprisingly, even when producer numbers decline, total milk output continues to climb due to increased cow efficiency. This contradiction highlights a pattern of consolidation rather than a complete deterioration in the sector’s viability.

As we look to the future, we must contemplate the ramifications of this transformation. What does this imply for the future generation of dairy farmers? How can we encourage fresh blood to join the industry? Policies that promote financial stability and predictability for producers are urgently needed, enabling them to handle market volatility and regulatory hurdles efficiently. Furthermore, supporting local dairy farmers is more important than ever, providing them with the resources they need to succeed in the face of these changes.

With a significant focus on environmental rules and efficiency gains, the business offers opportunities for those willing to adapt and develop, yet both demand changes. The government and industry levels are designed to support long-term growth and resilience. As consumers, stakeholders, and politicians, we can work together to ensure British dairy farming has a bright and sustainable future.

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Global Dairy Market Poised for Recovery: Prices Set to Rise Through 2024

Is the global dairy market set for a comeback? Discover how rising prices and shifting supply dynamics could impact the industry through 2024.

A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., on Friday, September 7, 2018. Photographer: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg

The global dairy market is at a pivotal point, transitioning towards higher prices in 2024. Rabobank’s latest report indicates that dairy commodity prices have bottomed out and are set to rise. By the end of 2023, the market faced limited new milk supply and sluggish demand, resulting in soft commodity pricing due to weak fundamentals. 

“2023 was marked by soft dairy commodity pricing from weaker fundamentals,” says Michael Harvey, senior dairy analyst at Rabobank. Despite a brief resurgence, global supply growth faltered due to lower milk prices, high costs, and weather disruptions. The global market anticipated a Chinese rebalancing, only to see significant import shortfalls for the second year. 

“There is growing evidence that the bottom in the dairy commodity markets has passed, and prices are likely to climb through 2024,” Rabobank’s report notes, offering a cautiously optimistic outlook.

“There is growing evidence that the bottom in the dairy commodity markets has passed, and prices are likely to climb through 2024,” Rabobank’s report notes, offering a cautiously optimistic outlook.

A Year of Turbulence: Factors Contributing to the 2023 Global Dairy Market Slump 

2023 witnessed a convergence of challenges that softened global dairy commodity prices. Firstly, limited milk supply growth defined the year, as brief surges were hindered by falling milk prices and rising operational costs. Additionally, severe weather disruptions worsened supply chain inefficiencies, affecting production in crucial dairy regions.  

Higher input costs, from feed to energy, strained dairy farms worldwide, making it difficult to stay profitable. Unpredictable environmental conditions further challenged the agricultural sector‘s resilience.  

The market also felt the impact of China’s reduced dairy imports. As the largest dairy importer, China’s decreased demand created significant ripples. The nation’s internal oversupply and economic slowdown led to a substantial drop in dairy imports for the second consecutive year.  

These elements not only drove down dairy commodity prices but also brought increased uncertainty and volatility, setting a cautious yet hopeful tone for 2024.

Navigating Uncertainty: Rabobank’s Analysis Signals Renewed Optimism for the Dairy Market’s Resurgence 

Rabobank’s latest analysis offers a hopeful outlook for the global dairy market, indicating that the worst is over for dairy commodity prices. The report predicts a gradual price rise through 2024, promising stability and growth for an industry struck by recent challenges. Farmers and producers, who have faced fluctuating prices and high costs, can now anticipate a more favorable economic environment. Thus, the story of the global dairy market is evolving from turmoil to resurgence, paving the way for potential growth and new opportunities.

China’s Stabilizing Influence: Opportunities for Global Dairy Importers Amid Steady Demand

China has long been a critical player in the global dairy market, significantly influencing commodity prices with its import patterns. In 2024, China’s import volume is expected to stabilize, a contrast to the substantial shortfalls of the past two years. This steady demand could reduce some of the erratic fluctuations in global markets. 

This stabilization provides other importers with a chance to build their stocks. With China’s steady demand, nations might acquire dairy commodities at competitive prices, strengthening their reserves without the pressure of Chinese-driven demand surges. As the market transitions, global importers must keenly observe these signals to manage stock levels strategically, potentially easing the volatility experienced in recent years.

Price Volatility: A Multidimensional Challenge for 2024 

Price volatility will be a significant challenge in 2024, influenced by various factors. Geopolitical instability, with regional conflicts and trade disputes, can disrupt supply chains and affect dairy markets through tariffs and export bans. 

Energy market fluctuations, driven by changing oil prices and the shift to renewable sources, directly impact dairy production and distribution costs. Irregular energy pricing can lead to unpredictable dairy commodity prices. 

Weak global economic conditions also play a role. Economic sluggishness reduces consumer purchasing power and government budgets, affecting discretionary spending on premium dairy products and complicating dairy pricing. 

Inflationary pressures further complicate the picture. Rising raw materials, labor, and transportation costs may force dairy producers to increase prices. However, if consumer demand doesn’t support these hikes, the market could experience high production costs and low retail prices. 

Navigating the dairy market in 2024 will require careful monitoring of these risks. Industry stakeholders must remain vigilant and develop strategies to mitigate geopolitical, energy, and economic disruptions to maintain stability.

Outlook for Grain and Oilseed Prices: A Double-Edged Sword for Dairy Farmers in 2024

Rabobank’s 2024 forecast suggests a slightly softer outlook for grain and oilseed prices. This is attributed to an expected increase in global feed grain supply, which is favorable for dairy farm margins. Lower feed grain costs are anticipated to support dairy farmers in a volatile market. However, some commodities like palm oil may have more bullish outlooks, potentially adding cost pressures. 

Reduced grain and oilseed prices can enhance farmgate margins by lowering a significant variable cost in dairy farming. This relief is vital as dairy producers deal with high operational expenses and fluctuating milk prices. By easing some financial burdens, better feed cost prospects could boost profitability and stabilize production despite uncertain commodity pricing and geopolitical risks.

Strategic Shifts in the EU Dairy Market: Anticipating Milk Price Dynamics and Export Challenges for 2024 

Looking to the first half of 2024, the EU dairy market faces complex milk price dynamics and export challenges. Rabobank expects EU milk prices to rise, driven by recent gains in European dairy commodity prices and lower stock levels. Notably, several major dairy processors in northwest Europe have already increased milk prices for late 2023. 

However, EU milk deliveries are forecast to decline by 0.5% year-on-year in Q1 and 0.4% in Q2 of 2024, indicating structural weaknesses. The second half of 2024 might see a slight decline of 0.2% year-on-year, suggesting a slow recovery. 

EU export price competitiveness remains a concern due to high farmgate milk prices compared to global competitors. Despite these challenges, year-on-year volume growth is expected for Q4 2024, although supply limitations and a modest domestic demand recovery could impact results.

The US Dairy Market’s Path to Recovery: Forecasted Growth and Strategic Adjustments for 2024

The US dairy market is set for a modest recovery in 2024, with a predicted 1% growth in milk production year-on-year. Despite the herd size dropping to 9.37 million in October 2023, the lowest since January 2022, gradual expansion is expected throughout 2024. This growth aims to meet rising domestic and global demand

Rabobank projections for first half 2024 price Class III milk at $17.78/cwt and Class IV at $19.24/cwt. Full-year estimates are $18.38/cwt for Class III and $20.37/cwt for Class IV, with Class IV consistently priced higher. These forecasts reflect a market transitioning through cautious optimism and strategic adjustments.

New Zealand and Australia: Navigating Production Declines and Export Challenges in 2024 

New Zealand’s dairy sector faces a challenging outlook, with full-season production forecasted to decline by up to 2% year-on-year beyond the first half of 2024. This outlook is influenced by cautious budgeting, which affects farming practices and potentially impacts milk flows in the latter half of the season. Animal health management will be essential for a robust start to the 2024-2025 season, but intensified milking efforts due to lower forecasted milk prices could strain herd health. 

Despite record farmgate milk prices buffering the sector from global fluctuations in Australia, dairy exports have significantly declined. Export volumes dropped by more than 13% year-on-year in the first three months of the new season, with notable reductions in milk powder ingredients, bulk cheese, and butter. The liquid milk segment also saw a 30% year-on-year decrease. A tight domestic milk supply and high farmgate milk prices relative to significant competitors partly explain this decline. 

Additionally, Australia’s butter and cheese imports increased by 43% and 21% year-on-year, respectively. Domestic purchasing behaviors are shifting due to an income squeeze, with dairy purchases outperforming other discretionary food items but still showing some volume declines. The stabilization of Australia’s exportable surplus over 2023-2024 depends on a recovery in milk supply, though export competitiveness remains an immediate concern.

The Bottom Line

The global dairy market is cautiously moving towards recovery in 2024. Rabobank’s observations note an upward price trend, following the softness seen in 2023. Modest milk supply growth, better feed costs, and improved demand, particularly from China, foster this positive outlook. 

Significant factors include stabilizing China’s import volume, strategic shifts in the EU, forecasted US milk production growth, and adjustments in New Zealand and Australia. Potential volatility due to geopolitical instability, energy market fluctuations, and macroeconomic uncertainties are also acknowledged. However, with strategic adjustments and risk mitigation, the sector is prepared for a steady recovery. 

While challenges remain, signs of recovery are evident. Stakeholders must stay vigilant, adapt strategies, and leverage insights to navigate the complexities of 2024, ensuring resilience and growth in a dynamic market. 

Key Takeaways:

  • The global dairy market is transitioning from a period of low commodity prices with a projected upward trend through 2024.
  • China’s steady import demand is crucial for driving price rallies in the Oceania region, and stabilized import volumes are expected in 2024.
  • Price volatility is anticipated due to geopolitical instability, volatile energy markets, and weak macroeconomic conditions.
  • A softer grain and oilseed price outlook will improve dairy farm margins globally.
  • EU milk prices are anticipated to strengthen in early 2024, yet export competitiveness may remain challenging due to high farmgate milk prices.
  • US dairy production shows a slow yet steady growth forecast with specific price estimates for Class III and IV milk segments.
  • New Zealand dairy production is expected to decline, while Australia faces reduced export competitiveness amid high domestic farmgate milk prices.
  • Overall, the 2024 outlook indicates cautious optimism with potential recovery driven by strategic shifts and stabilizing factors in critical markets.

Summary:

The global dairy market is facing a critical point, with Rabobank’s report indicating that dairy commodity prices are set to rise in 2024. By the end of 2023, the market faced limited new milk supply and sluggish demand, leading to soft commodity pricing. Despite a brief resurgence, global supply growth faltered due to lower milk prices, high costs, and weather disruptions. The market anticipated a Chinese rebalancing but saw significant shortfalls in imports for the second year. Rabobank’s analysis suggests a gradual rise in prices through 2024, promising stability and growth for the industry. However, price volatility will be a significant challenge in 2024, influenced by geopolitical instability, energy market fluctuations, weak global economic conditions, and inflationary pressures.

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