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Dairy Market Forecast: Price Increases, Export Changes, and Tighter Milk Supplies for 2024-2025

Uncover the effects of reduced milk supplies and evolving export trends on dairy prices for 2024-2025. Are you ready to navigate the upcoming changes in the dairy market?

High angle view of most common dairy products shot on rustic wooden table. The composition includes milk, sour cream, butter, yogurt, eggs and cottage cheese. Predominant colors are white, yellow and brown. High resolution 42Mp studio digital capture taken with Sony A7rii and Sony FE 90mm f2.8 macro G OSS lens

The complexity of the dairy business, particularly in estimating milk output and price, is of utmost importance in 2024 and 2025. Slower milk per cow growth will influence supply, while local and foreign demand swings complicate the situation. The dairy business is at a crucial stage. Understanding these relationships is not just critical, but it also empowers stakeholders, ensuring they are well informed and prepared. Higher cow numbers, shifting commercial exports and imports, and price modifications for dairy products all contribute to the sector’s volatility. Anticipating market trends in the $1.1 trillion dairy sector helps business players manage problems and comprehend their impact on local economies and global food security.

As we navigate the complexities of the dairy market for 2024 and 2025, it’s essential to understand the interplay between milk production, export trends, and pricing dynamics. The data below provides an insightful overview of the projected changes and underlying factors. 

Challenging Assumptions: Higher Cow Numbers Don’t Guarantee Increased Milk Production 

YearPrevious Forecast (billion pounds)Revised Forecast (billion pounds)Change (%)
2024227.5225.8-0.75%
2025230.0228.2-0.78%

While more significant cow numbers may indicate improved milk output, updated predictions for 2024 and 2025 tell a different story. The key reason for these reduced estimates is slower milk increase per cow, which outweighs the benefits of a large cow inventory. Weather, feed quality, and genetic constraints all contribute to the slow rise in production. Adverse weather affects the quality of feed crops, which are critical for milk production, and genetic innovations face limits that prevent rapid productivity increases. Consequently, even with increased cow numbers, overall milk yield remains below expectations, necessitating a projection revision. It’s the responsibility of industry stakeholders to consider cow numbers and productivity to create accurate estimates and implement successful initiatives, fostering a proactive and responsible approach.

Unveiling the Dynamics of Commercial Dairy Exports: Navigating the Shifting Landscape for 2024 and 2025 

YearCommercial Exports (Fat Basis)Commercial Exports (Skim-Solids Basis)
2024RaisedLowered
2025ReducedReduced

Analyzing changes in commercial exports for 2024 and 2025 indicates a complicated dynamic caused by varied demand and production capacities across categories. Increased butter and cheese shipments in 2024 have boosted fat-based exports, indicating a solid foreign demand for higher-fat dairy products. In contrast, lower skim-solids base exports of nonfat dry milk (NDM) and lactose indicate a shift in the trade environment, which competitive price, nutritional demand adjustments, or trade policy changes might drive.

The forecast is more cautious until 2025. Fat-based and skim-solids-based exports are expected to drop. This might indicate rising internal use, pressure from global competitors, or severe rules limiting export potential. Navigating these obstacles while capitalizing on upcoming possibilities will be critical to the dairy industry’s balanced and sustainable development path.

The Shifting Tides of Dairy Imports: A Detailed Examination for 2024 and 2025

YearFat Basis ImportsSkim-Solids Basis Imports
2024RaisedLowered
2025UnchangedReduced

In 2024, dairy imports on a fat basis are predicted to climb, owing to rising demand for butter and butterfat products. This tendency is likely due to changes in consumer tastes or industry demands. However, imports are expected to fall on a skim-solids basis, reflecting a demand or sourcing strategy shift. In 2025, fat-based imports are expected to stay stable. Still, skim-solids imports are expected to fall, potentially owing to increasing local production or decreasing demand for commodities such as nonfat dry milk and lactose. These import patterns indicate the market factors that affect the dairy industry.

Projected Price Elevations in Dairy Commodities: Implications for 2024 and 2025

YearCheese ($/lb)Butter ($/lb)NDM ($/lb)Whey ($/lb)Class III ($/cwt)Class IV ($/cwt)All Milk ($/cwt)
20242.102.501.450.6020.5019.7522.25
20252.152.551.500.6220.7520.0022.50

Recent steady pricing and tighter milk supply will drive higher dairy product prices in 2024 and 2025. Cheese, butter, nonfat dry milk (NDM), and whey prices are likely to rise compared to prior projections. Cheese prices are expected to climb dramatically by 2024, with butter following suit due to high demand and limited availability. NDM, a key ingredient in dairy products, is expected to rise in price, increasing whey pricing. The trend will continue until 2025, fueled by persistently restricted milk supply and high market prices. As a result, Class III and Class IV milk prices will rise, bringing the overall milk price prediction to $22.25 per cwt in 2024 and $22.50 per cwt in 2025. This increase highlights the influence of limited supply and strong demand on dairy prices, demonstrating the complexities of market dynamics.

Decoding the Surge: Understanding the Upward Forecasts for Class III and Class IV Milk Prices in 2024 and 2025

YearClass III Milk Price ($/cwt)Class IV Milk Price ($/cwt)
202419.8518.00
202520.2518.50

The increased predictions for Class III and Class IV milk prices in 2024 and 2025 are due to higher costs for essential dairy products such as cheese, butter, nonfat dry milk (NDM), and whey. Class III milk is used in cheese manufacturing, leading to higher pricing due to limited supply and high demand. Similarly, Class IV milk, which is used in butter and dry milk products, reflects growing market pricing for these commodities. Higher product prices directly impact milk price estimates since they are used in industry pricing calculations. With a tight milk supply, robust dairy product prices support these increases in Class III and IV milk price estimates.

All Milk Prices Poised for Significant Rise: Charting a New Trajectory for Dairy Market Stability 

The higher adjustment of the milk price projection to $22.25 per cwt in 2024 and $22.50 per cwt in 2025 indicates a substantial change in dairy market dynamics. This gain is driven by tighter milk supply and strong demand for butter, cheese, NDM, and whey. It’s a testament to the sector’s resilience, reassuring stakeholders and instilling confidence in the face of production and export variations.

All Milk Prices Poised for Significant Rise: Charting a New Trajectory for Dairy Market Stability higher pricing per hundredweight (cwt) allows dairy farmers to increase profitability, balancing increased input costs such as feed, labor, and energy. This might increase agricultural infrastructure and technology investments, improving efficiency and sustainability. However, depending on long-term price rises exposes producers to market instability and economic risk. Unexpected milk supply increases, or demand declines might cause price adjustments, jeopardizing financial stability. Stakeholders need to be aware of these potential risks and plan accordingly.

For consumers, predicted price increases in dairy commodities may boost retail costs for milk and milk-based products, straining family budgets, particularly among low-income households. The extent to which merchants pass on cost increases determines the effect. In highly competitive marketplaces, price transmission may be mitigated. Due to price fluctuations, consumers may seek lower-cost alternatives or shift their purchasing habits.

Overall, the expected increase in total milk prices reflects a complicated combination of supply limits and high demand. Farmers and consumers must strategize and adapt to navigate the economic environment and maintain the dairy sector’s long-term existence.

The Bottom Line

The dairy market estimate for 2024 and 2025 demonstrates a complicated relationship between higher cow numbers and slower growth in milk per cow, influencing export and import patterns. Milk output is expected to fall owing to lower milk yield per cow. Commercial dairy exports will grow in 2024 on a fat basis but fall on a skim-solids basis, with an overall decrease in 2025. Fat-based imports will rise in 2024 and stay constant in 2025, while skim-solid imports will fall in both years. Higher prices for cheese, butter, nonfat dry milk (NDM), and whey suggest tighter milk supplies, rising Class III and IV milk prices and driving the all-milk price projection to $22.25 per cwt in 2024 and $22.50 per cwt in 2025. Monitoring supply and demand is crucial for industry stakeholders. To succeed in an ever-changing market, they must be watchful, innovate, and embrace sustainable practices.

Key Takeaways:

  • The milk production forecast for 2024 is reduced due to slower growth in milk per cow, despite an increase in cow numbers.
  • Similarly, the 2025 milk production forecast is lowered as slower growth in milk per cow overshadows a larger cow inventory.
  • For 2024, commercial exports on a fat basis are raised, primarily driven by increased butter and cheese shipments, while skim-solids basis exports are lowered due to reduced nonfat dry milk (NDM) and lactose exports.
  • In 2025, commercial exports are expected to decrease on both fat and skim-solids bases.
  • Fat basis imports for 2024 are projected to rise, reflecting higher anticipated imports of butter and butterfat products, whereas skim-solids basis imports are lowered for a number of products.
  • For 2025, imports remain unchanged on a fat basis but are reduced on a skim-solids basis.
  • The prices of cheese, butter, NDM, and whey for 2024 are raised from previous forecasts due to recent price strengths and expectations of tighter milk supplies.
  • Higher dairy product prices elevate the Class III and Class IV price forecasts for 2024, with the all milk price forecast increased to $22.25 per cwt.
  • These stronger price trends are expected to continue into 2025, further raising projected prices for butter, cheese, NDM, and whey, along with Class III and Class IV milk prices, and an all milk price forecast of $22.50 per cwt.

Summary:

The dairy industry faces challenges in 2024 and 2025 due to slower milk per cow growth, affecting supply and demand swings. Factors like weather, feed quality, and genetic constraints contribute to the slow rise in production, outweighing the benefits of a large cow inventory. Despite increased cow numbers, overall milk yield remains below expectations, necessitating a projection revision. Commercial dairy exports for 2024 and 2025 show a complicated dynamic due to varied demand and production capacities across categories. Increased butter and cheese shipments in 2024 have boosted fat-based exports, indicating solid foreign demand for higher-fat dairy products. However, lower skim-solids base exports of nonfat dry milk and lactose indicate a shift in the trade environment, possibly driven by competitive price, nutritional demand adjustments, or trade policy changes. The forecast is more cautious until 2025, with fat-based and skim-solids-based exports expected to drop. Price elevations in dairy commodities are likely to rise compared to prior projections, with cheese prices climbing dramatically by 2024.

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DFC Research Review 2023: Breakthroughs and Future Directions in Dairy Science IRCs

Learn about the newest discoveries in dairy science! How are IRCs making cattle healthier, happier, and more sustainable? Check out DFC’s 2023 research highlights now. 

The development of the dairy sector depends on creativity and conquering new difficulties. How can we guarantee that dairy farming’s bright future will be sustainable? The successes and opportunities of Industrial Research Chairs (IRCs) in dairy research are discussed along with future possibilities in this paper. Spending $2 million yearly in research, the Dairy Farmers of Canada (DFC) works with the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) and many partners. With an eye on essential areas such as dairy cow health, welfare, longevity, infectious illness, and biosecurity, this funding supports the National Dairy Research Strategy. Acknowledging these IRCs emphasizes their role in determining the direction of dairy production.

See full report here DFC 2023 research highlights report

Fueling Innovation: DFC’s $2 Million Annual Investment Elevates Dairy Research and Industry Contributions. 

Every year, the Dairy Farmers of Canada (DFC) commits $2 million to progress dairy production research, human health, and nutrition. This significant investment illustrates DFC’s dedication to creativity and improvement of the dairy sector’s social contributions. By focusing these funds on scientific research, DFC hopes to provide practical solutions benefiting consumers and industry stakeholders.

The National Dairy Research Strategy is the core of these initiatives. It’s a framework that identifies important topics of investigation. This approach prioritizes sustainability, human nutrition, and dairy cow health and welfare, among other things. The aim is to support sustainable dairy production, lower health hazards, and emphasize the nutritional value of dairy products.

To finance initiatives tackling significant problems and grabbing fresh possibilities, DFC works with top academic institutions, business partners, and government organizations. This deliberate method guarantees that research produces practical applications, promotes industrial development, and improves public welfare. Thus, the National Dairy Research Strategy dramatically enhances the resilience and competitiveness of Canada’s dairy industry.

Industrial Research Chairs: Catalysts for Progress through Collaborative Research 

Industrial Research Chairs (IRCs) are vital in advancing the dairy sector by encouraging cooperation. Supported by academic institutions, industry partners, and government agencies such as the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) and the Dairy Farmers of Canada (DFC), IRCs address high-priority dairy sector challenges through focused research projects.

IRCs’ power is in organizing many research initiatives within a shared framework. Leading networks spanning scientists, veterinarians, industry leaders, and legislators by chairholders and subject-matter experts help. This convergence of many points of view directs research activities to address sector problems.

Dairy sector concerns, including dairy cow health, welfare, biosecurity, and sustainability, rank highest among IRCs. Through a diverse strategy, they create creative ideas for application in the sector, fostering resilience and ongoing development.

Moreover, knowledge translation and transfer (KTT) depends much on IRCs. They provide study results to dairy producers, consultants, and industry players through podcasts, webinars, and trade magazines. This guarantees that the most recent scientific developments are practical and readily available, promoting the dairy sector’s expansion and sustainability.

Transforming Dairy Health: The Five-Year NSERC IRC on Infectious Diseases in Dairy Cattle, Led by Dr. Herman Barkema at the University of Calgary (2019-2024) 

Under Dr. Herman Barkema of the University of Calgary (2019–2024), the five-year NSERC IRC on Infectious Illnesses in Dairy Cattle aimed to change how infectious illnesses are handled in the dairy sector. This project sought to improve herd health, welfare, and production using innovative research and pragmatic solutions.

The IRC tackled significant problems with an eye toward:

  • Knowing Johne’s disease’s epidemiology, diagnosis, and control strategies helps one.
  • We are developing early identification, prevention, and treatment plans for mastitis.
  • Investigating use trends and advocating sensible substitutes help to address antimicrobial resistance.
  • Veterinarian-Farmer Communication: Increasing dialogue can help to guide decisions and control diseases.
  • We are examining how outdoor access affects illness frequency and the general state of health.

The effort produced noteworthy results that shaped policies and best practices throughout the dairy industry. For instance, the IRC on Infectious Diseases in Dairy Cattle, led by Dr. Herman Barkema, significantly improved herd health, welfare, and production. The cooperative research strategy reinforced strong linkages between academics, on-farm applications, and industry stakeholders, promoting a resilient and health-conscious dairy sector.

Using DFC’s knowledge-translation tools, industry conferences, and scientific publications, results from this IRC have been extensively disseminated to guarantee significant distribution throughout the Canadian dairy scene.

25 Years of Advancement: Celebrating UBC Animal Welfare Program’s Groundbreaking Contributions

Approaching a significant turning point in animal care, the UBC Animal Care Program has advanced astonishingly during the last 25 years. Under the direction of Dr. Dan Weary and Dr. Marina von Keyserlingk, this project has been instrumental in raising dairy cow welfare and standards both here at home and abroad. Their studies have addressed problems like lameness, social housing, pasture access, and pain treatment, laying a scientific basis for optimum standards. By their committed work, Drs. Weary and von Keyserlingk have greatly improved animal welfare in the dairy sector, highlighting science and activism’s transforming potential.

Under Dr. Elsa Vasseur’s direction of the NSERC/Novalait/DFC/Valacta IRC on the sustainable life of dairy cattle (2016–22), three main topics surfaced: cow comfort and management, cow longevity, and environmental sustainability. Emphasizing cow comfort, Vasseur upgraded bedding, housing, and social interactions to raise cow welfare, health, and production.

Regarding cow lifetime, her studies focused on management and genetic elements to increase dairy cow productivity. Voseur sought to keep cows healthy for longer by tackling health problems and stresses.

Vasseur investigated environmentally friendly methods like waste management and resource-efficient feeding techniques to lessen the impact of dairy production. This harmonic approach underlined the junction of environmental issues and animal welfare.

Now co-chairing the WELL-E Research Chair (2023–28) with Abdoulaye Baniré Diallo, Vasseur is pioneering sophisticated informatics and artificial intelligence to further improve animal welfare and lifespan. This creative project marks a daring step toward a more ethical and environmentally friendly dairy sector.

Pioneering Biosecurity in Dairy: Leadership of Simon Dufour and Juan Carlos Arango Sabogal at Université de Montréal

Launched in 2020, the five-year RC in biosecurity of dairy production is led by Simon Dufour and Juan Carlos Arango Sabogal of the Université de Montréal’s veterinary medicine school. Focusing on biosecurity, diagnostics, and disease management to limit economic losses, safeguard animal welfare, and reduce public health and environmental consequences, this program offers dairy producers techniques to avoid and treat infectious illnesses.

Developing protocols and best practices for biosecurity measures helps this topic be pragmatic and reasonably priced. Good biosecurity strategies help protect herd health, increasing general farm output.

Advanced diagnostics are vital. By improving disease detection and identification and using new techniques and technology for consistent findings, farmers can react quickly and effectively to health hazards.

Researching and using creative illness monitoring and management strategies is essential. The aim is to establish a solid basis for disease prevention, quick reaction to outbreaks, and ongoing farm practice improvement.

Through its targeted topics and cooperative leadership, this research project seeks to provide the Canadian dairy sector with the necessary information and instruments to improve farm sustainability and animal welfare.

Bridging the Gap: Knowledge Translation and Transfer (KTT) Tools for Dairy Industry

DFC created Knowledge Translation and Transfer (KTT) technologies to close the distance between innovative research and helpful applications. These instruments guarantee quick acceptance of innovations and best practices by efficiently distributing research results to dairy farmers, on-farm advisors, and industry stakeholders. KTT technologies simplify challenging scientific data to help stakeholders improve operations and make evidence-based choices.

KTT tools exist in many readily available forms meant to meet diverse needs:

  • Podcasts are audio recordings with insights from top professionals, perfect for on-the-job learning.
  • Visually pleasing images are stressing essential lessons and valuable applications.
  • Short, exciting films called animated videos help to make study topics enjoyable and remembered.
  • Trade Publications: Research results and practical advice shared in sector magazines.
  • Webinars are interactive online lectures, including research presentations, and are accompanied by Q&A sessions.

Dairy Farmers of Canada guarantees significant research findings are accessible and practical by using these various KTT methods, enabling stakeholders to apply changes that propel the sector ahead.

The Bottom Line

The Dairy Farmers of Canada (DFC) spends $2 million yearly on research; Industrial Research Chairs (IRCs) have transforming power. Given substantial financing and partnerships, these projects are essential for promoting dairy health, welfare, and sustainability. Advances in infectious disease management, animal welfare, sustainability, and biosecurity show their relevance. Strong and sustainable dairy depends on a dedication to academic quality, pragmatic innovation, and stakeholder cooperation via IRCs. We must keep supporting these essential research initiatives even as we honor these successes. With constant investment and effort, we can ensure a bright future for the dairy sector, benefiting society, consumers, and farmers.

Key Takeaways:

  • DFC invests $2 million annually in research focused on human health, nutrition, and dairy production.
  • IRCs coordinate multiple research projects under one initiative to address industry-wide priorities.
  • Significant impact areas include dairy cattle health, welfare, longevity, infectious disease, and biosecurity.
  • Collaborative funding from DFC, NSERC, and sector partners ensures targeted investment in crucial research areas.
  • NSERC IRC on infectious diseases in dairy cattle, led by Dr. Herman Barkema, focuses on herd health and productivity.
  • University of British Columbia’s Animal Welfare Program has significantly improved animal care and welfare internationally.
  • The IRC on sustainable life of dairy cattle, chaired by Dr. Elsa Vasseur, emphasizes cow comfort, longevity, and environmental sustainability.
  • Since 2020, the RC in biosecurity of dairy production works towards preventing and controlling infectious diseases on farms.

Summary:

The dairy sector’s growth relies on creativity and overcoming challenges. Industrial Research Chairs (IRCs) are instrumental in advancing the sector by encouraging cooperation and addressing high-priority issues through focused research projects. The Dairy Farmers of Canada (DFC) spends $2 million annually on research, working with the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) and partners to focus on dairy cow health, welfare, longevity, infectious illness, and biosecurity. The National Dairy Research Strategy prioritizes sustainability, human nutrition, and dairy cow health and welfare. IRCs provide study results to dairy producers, consultants, and industry players through podcasts, webinars, and trade magazines, ensuring the latest scientific developments are practical and readily available. Knowledge Translation and Transfer (KTT) tools facilitate the quick acceptance of innovations and best practices by efficiently distributing research results to dairy farmers, on-farm advisors, and industry stakeholders.

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Global Dairy Market Poised for Recovery: Prices Set to Rise Through 2024

Is the global dairy market set for a comeback? Discover how rising prices and shifting supply dynamics could impact the industry through 2024.

A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., on Friday, September 7, 2018. Photographer: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg

The global dairy market is at a pivotal point, transitioning towards higher prices in 2024. Rabobank’s latest report indicates that dairy commodity prices have bottomed out and are set to rise. By the end of 2023, the market faced limited new milk supply and sluggish demand, resulting in soft commodity pricing due to weak fundamentals. 

“2023 was marked by soft dairy commodity pricing from weaker fundamentals,” says Michael Harvey, senior dairy analyst at Rabobank. Despite a brief resurgence, global supply growth faltered due to lower milk prices, high costs, and weather disruptions. The global market anticipated a Chinese rebalancing, only to see significant import shortfalls for the second year. 

“There is growing evidence that the bottom in the dairy commodity markets has passed, and prices are likely to climb through 2024,” Rabobank’s report notes, offering a cautiously optimistic outlook.

“There is growing evidence that the bottom in the dairy commodity markets has passed, and prices are likely to climb through 2024,” Rabobank’s report notes, offering a cautiously optimistic outlook.

A Year of Turbulence: Factors Contributing to the 2023 Global Dairy Market Slump 

2023 witnessed a convergence of challenges that softened global dairy commodity prices. Firstly, limited milk supply growth defined the year, as brief surges were hindered by falling milk prices and rising operational costs. Additionally, severe weather disruptions worsened supply chain inefficiencies, affecting production in crucial dairy regions.  

Higher input costs, from feed to energy, strained dairy farms worldwide, making it difficult to stay profitable. Unpredictable environmental conditions further challenged the agricultural sector‘s resilience.  

The market also felt the impact of China’s reduced dairy imports. As the largest dairy importer, China’s decreased demand created significant ripples. The nation’s internal oversupply and economic slowdown led to a substantial drop in dairy imports for the second consecutive year.  

These elements not only drove down dairy commodity prices but also brought increased uncertainty and volatility, setting a cautious yet hopeful tone for 2024.

Navigating Uncertainty: Rabobank’s Analysis Signals Renewed Optimism for the Dairy Market’s Resurgence 

Rabobank’s latest analysis offers a hopeful outlook for the global dairy market, indicating that the worst is over for dairy commodity prices. The report predicts a gradual price rise through 2024, promising stability and growth for an industry struck by recent challenges. Farmers and producers, who have faced fluctuating prices and high costs, can now anticipate a more favorable economic environment. Thus, the story of the global dairy market is evolving from turmoil to resurgence, paving the way for potential growth and new opportunities.

China’s Stabilizing Influence: Opportunities for Global Dairy Importers Amid Steady Demand

China has long been a critical player in the global dairy market, significantly influencing commodity prices with its import patterns. In 2024, China’s import volume is expected to stabilize, a contrast to the substantial shortfalls of the past two years. This steady demand could reduce some of the erratic fluctuations in global markets. 

This stabilization provides other importers with a chance to build their stocks. With China’s steady demand, nations might acquire dairy commodities at competitive prices, strengthening their reserves without the pressure of Chinese-driven demand surges. As the market transitions, global importers must keenly observe these signals to manage stock levels strategically, potentially easing the volatility experienced in recent years.

Price Volatility: A Multidimensional Challenge for 2024 

Price volatility will be a significant challenge in 2024, influenced by various factors. Geopolitical instability, with regional conflicts and trade disputes, can disrupt supply chains and affect dairy markets through tariffs and export bans. 

Energy market fluctuations, driven by changing oil prices and the shift to renewable sources, directly impact dairy production and distribution costs. Irregular energy pricing can lead to unpredictable dairy commodity prices. 

Weak global economic conditions also play a role. Economic sluggishness reduces consumer purchasing power and government budgets, affecting discretionary spending on premium dairy products and complicating dairy pricing. 

Inflationary pressures further complicate the picture. Rising raw materials, labor, and transportation costs may force dairy producers to increase prices. However, if consumer demand doesn’t support these hikes, the market could experience high production costs and low retail prices. 

Navigating the dairy market in 2024 will require careful monitoring of these risks. Industry stakeholders must remain vigilant and develop strategies to mitigate geopolitical, energy, and economic disruptions to maintain stability.

Outlook for Grain and Oilseed Prices: A Double-Edged Sword for Dairy Farmers in 2024

Rabobank’s 2024 forecast suggests a slightly softer outlook for grain and oilseed prices. This is attributed to an expected increase in global feed grain supply, which is favorable for dairy farm margins. Lower feed grain costs are anticipated to support dairy farmers in a volatile market. However, some commodities like palm oil may have more bullish outlooks, potentially adding cost pressures. 

Reduced grain and oilseed prices can enhance farmgate margins by lowering a significant variable cost in dairy farming. This relief is vital as dairy producers deal with high operational expenses and fluctuating milk prices. By easing some financial burdens, better feed cost prospects could boost profitability and stabilize production despite uncertain commodity pricing and geopolitical risks.

Strategic Shifts in the EU Dairy Market: Anticipating Milk Price Dynamics and Export Challenges for 2024 

Looking to the first half of 2024, the EU dairy market faces complex milk price dynamics and export challenges. Rabobank expects EU milk prices to rise, driven by recent gains in European dairy commodity prices and lower stock levels. Notably, several major dairy processors in northwest Europe have already increased milk prices for late 2023. 

However, EU milk deliveries are forecast to decline by 0.5% year-on-year in Q1 and 0.4% in Q2 of 2024, indicating structural weaknesses. The second half of 2024 might see a slight decline of 0.2% year-on-year, suggesting a slow recovery. 

EU export price competitiveness remains a concern due to high farmgate milk prices compared to global competitors. Despite these challenges, year-on-year volume growth is expected for Q4 2024, although supply limitations and a modest domestic demand recovery could impact results.

The US Dairy Market’s Path to Recovery: Forecasted Growth and Strategic Adjustments for 2024

The US dairy market is set for a modest recovery in 2024, with a predicted 1% growth in milk production year-on-year. Despite the herd size dropping to 9.37 million in October 2023, the lowest since January 2022, gradual expansion is expected throughout 2024. This growth aims to meet rising domestic and global demand

Rabobank projections for first half 2024 price Class III milk at $17.78/cwt and Class IV at $19.24/cwt. Full-year estimates are $18.38/cwt for Class III and $20.37/cwt for Class IV, with Class IV consistently priced higher. These forecasts reflect a market transitioning through cautious optimism and strategic adjustments.

New Zealand and Australia: Navigating Production Declines and Export Challenges in 2024 

New Zealand’s dairy sector faces a challenging outlook, with full-season production forecasted to decline by up to 2% year-on-year beyond the first half of 2024. This outlook is influenced by cautious budgeting, which affects farming practices and potentially impacts milk flows in the latter half of the season. Animal health management will be essential for a robust start to the 2024-2025 season, but intensified milking efforts due to lower forecasted milk prices could strain herd health. 

Despite record farmgate milk prices buffering the sector from global fluctuations in Australia, dairy exports have significantly declined. Export volumes dropped by more than 13% year-on-year in the first three months of the new season, with notable reductions in milk powder ingredients, bulk cheese, and butter. The liquid milk segment also saw a 30% year-on-year decrease. A tight domestic milk supply and high farmgate milk prices relative to significant competitors partly explain this decline. 

Additionally, Australia’s butter and cheese imports increased by 43% and 21% year-on-year, respectively. Domestic purchasing behaviors are shifting due to an income squeeze, with dairy purchases outperforming other discretionary food items but still showing some volume declines. The stabilization of Australia’s exportable surplus over 2023-2024 depends on a recovery in milk supply, though export competitiveness remains an immediate concern.

The Bottom Line

The global dairy market is cautiously moving towards recovery in 2024. Rabobank’s observations note an upward price trend, following the softness seen in 2023. Modest milk supply growth, better feed costs, and improved demand, particularly from China, foster this positive outlook. 

Significant factors include stabilizing China’s import volume, strategic shifts in the EU, forecasted US milk production growth, and adjustments in New Zealand and Australia. Potential volatility due to geopolitical instability, energy market fluctuations, and macroeconomic uncertainties are also acknowledged. However, with strategic adjustments and risk mitigation, the sector is prepared for a steady recovery. 

While challenges remain, signs of recovery are evident. Stakeholders must stay vigilant, adapt strategies, and leverage insights to navigate the complexities of 2024, ensuring resilience and growth in a dynamic market. 

Key Takeaways:

  • The global dairy market is transitioning from a period of low commodity prices with a projected upward trend through 2024.
  • China’s steady import demand is crucial for driving price rallies in the Oceania region, and stabilized import volumes are expected in 2024.
  • Price volatility is anticipated due to geopolitical instability, volatile energy markets, and weak macroeconomic conditions.
  • A softer grain and oilseed price outlook will improve dairy farm margins globally.
  • EU milk prices are anticipated to strengthen in early 2024, yet export competitiveness may remain challenging due to high farmgate milk prices.
  • US dairy production shows a slow yet steady growth forecast with specific price estimates for Class III and IV milk segments.
  • New Zealand dairy production is expected to decline, while Australia faces reduced export competitiveness amid high domestic farmgate milk prices.
  • Overall, the 2024 outlook indicates cautious optimism with potential recovery driven by strategic shifts and stabilizing factors in critical markets.

Summary:

The global dairy market is facing a critical point, with Rabobank’s report indicating that dairy commodity prices are set to rise in 2024. By the end of 2023, the market faced limited new milk supply and sluggish demand, leading to soft commodity pricing. Despite a brief resurgence, global supply growth faltered due to lower milk prices, high costs, and weather disruptions. The market anticipated a Chinese rebalancing but saw significant shortfalls in imports for the second year. Rabobank’s analysis suggests a gradual rise in prices through 2024, promising stability and growth for the industry. However, price volatility will be a significant challenge in 2024, influenced by geopolitical instability, energy market fluctuations, weak global economic conditions, and inflationary pressures.

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Facing Change in the Dairy Industry: The Bullvine’s Journey from Controversy to Community

Uncover the Bullvine’s journey in revolutionizing dairy industry discussions into a vibrant community. Are you prepared to be part of the discourse and spearhead change in dairy farming?

The Bullvine has always tackled the challenging issues others avoid, igniting essential conversations across the dairy industry. With the internet and social media amplifying these discussions globally, the Bullvine has become a powerful voice for change. For instance, our in-depth coverage of A.I. organization practices led to a significant shift in public opinion and industry standards, demonstrating the tangible impact of our work. 

Our dedication to addressing controversial topics stands out in an era dominated by digital platforms. From A.I. organizations to photo ethics, we aim to drive meaningful change by spotlighting often-overlooked issues. It’s important to note that we do not take a neutral stance on these matters. We firmly believe in the need for ethical reform and transparency, and our articles reflect this commitment.

Beginning with a Purpose: Forging a Path Towards Transparency in the Dairy Industry 

In the early days of The Bullvine, our vision was propelled by an unwavering commitment to address the pressing issues that many within the dairy industry preferred to sidestep. Founded to inject transparency and ethical discussion into dairy cattle breeding, The Bullvine emerged as a bold, new voice in an industry steeped in tradition. Our articles and discussions have shed light on previously unexplored aspects of the industry, sparking a wave of transparency and ethical reform. This journey was initiated by firsthand experiences in barns and cattle shows, where it became clear that a significant section of the community was desperately calling for change. 

The driving force behind our inception was the desire to provide a platform where the concerns and ideas of dairy farmers, breeders, and industry stakeholders could be voiced and heard. We sought to challenge the status quo, tackling controversial topics such as A.I. organization practices, photo ethics, show ethics, and the implications of high-pressure herd management. Our aim was not just to present our viewsbut to foster a constructive dialogue that would lead to collective understanding and, Ultimately, Positive Change

The Bullvine did not embark on this mission with naive optimism. Our team, seasoned by years of involvement at various levels of the dairy industry, recognized the enormity of our task. We knew that change would come slowly and with resistance. Indeed, the initial responses ranged from enthusiastic support to vehement opposition. Stakeholders from both ends of the spectrum were, and still are, deeply invested in their viewpoints, each convinced of the validity and virtue of their practices. 

From the outset, these efforts sparked passionate exchanges. We witnessed robust engagement from individuals who saw their livelihood and heritage tied to the arguments. This raw passion underscored a fundamental truth: the dairy industry is not merely an occupation for those involved but a way of life imbued with deep emotional and cultural significance. This intrinsic connection has only fueled the ongoing discussion and debate, uniting us all in a collective push toward a more progressive and ethical future for the industry.

Unwavering Commitment to Tackling the Dairy Industry’s Core Issues 

The Bullvine has persistently addressed several contentious yet pivotal issues within the dairy industry, showing a fearless commitment to transparency and reform. Among the most significant topics we’ve tackled are: 

A.I. Organizations: Artificial Insemination (A.I.) organizations play a vital role in the dairy industry by providing necessary genetic material for breeding. However, the inter-company dynamics and market strategies have not always aligned with the best interests of breeders and farmers. For instance, in our article “Business Ethics and Marketing Dairy Cattle Genetics,” we delve into the ethical concerns and the need for more cooperative strategies among A.I. organizations to better serve the community. 

Breed Associations: Dairy breed associations play a vital role in maintaining standards and supporting breeders. To progress, these groups must embrace change and strong leadership. Leaders need to be well-versed in industry technicalities and future trends, fostering a cooperative spirit. As discussed in business ethics in dairy cattle genetics, breed associations must align with modern dairying demands. This requires business acumen, adaptability, and a continuous learning mindset. By encouraging passionate professionals to lead, we ensure these associations remain relevant. Articles like Are Dairy Cattle Breed Associations Nearing Extinction? and Empty Chairs at Empty Tableshighlight the urgency for leaders to shape the future of our purebred dairy industry.

Photo and Show Ethics: The integrity of cattle photography and show ethics has been another hotly debated topic. The importance of authenticity in depicting prize cattle cannot be overstated, as seen in our detailed analysis “Dairy Cattle Photography: Ethics and Copyright.” This article explores the ethical quandaries surrounding photo enhancement and its implications on credibility and trust within the industry. 

Hothouse Herds: The phenomenon of hothouse herds, characterized by their intensive management and the skewed sampling of sires, has raised questions about the long-term sustainability and genetic diversity of cattle populations. Our investigative piece “The Hot House Effect on Sire Sampling” sheds light on how these practices can lead to inflated expectations and the potential erosion of genetic robustness. 

Each article thoroughly examines the issue, providing historical context, current challenges, and forward-looking perspectives to advocate for a more transparent and ethical dairy industry.

Embodying Courageous Leadership in the Dairy Industry

You are in the direct line of fire when you take a leadership position. While some prefer to lead from the rear, that has never been our style. For instance, when my parents recognized the need to cut costs and eliminate redundancy, they led the dissolution of the Canadian Association of Animal Breeders, an organization they had deeply invested in. This was not an easy decision, but it was a necessary one to ensure the industry’s long-term sustainability. They faced the reality of putting themselves out of work rather than letting the industry duplicate and be inefficient, moving CAAB services to other organizations including CDN (now Lactanet) and the Canadian Livestock Genetics Association. 

You are in the direct line of fire when you take a leadership position. While some prefer to lead from the rear, that has never been our style. For instance, when my parents recognized the need to cut costs and eliminate redundancy, they led the dissolution of the Canadian Association of Animal Breeders, an organization they had deeply invested in. . This was not an easy decision, but it was a necessary one to ensure the industry’s long-term sustainability. They faced the reality of putting themselves out of work rather than letting the industry duplicate and be inefficient, moving CAAB services to other organizations including CDN (now Lactanet) and the Canadian Livestock Genetics Association. 

At the Bullvine, we embrace this legacy of bold decision-making and unwavering resolve, knowing full well that advocating for change in a tradition-rich industry like dairy farming evokes strong reactions. The discussions we instigate are deeply personal because, for many, dairy farming is not merely a profession; it is a heritage and a way of life. This understanding prompts us to navigate these conversations with courage and sensitivity, ensuring we honor the past while zealously steering toward a more dynamic future. We deeply respect the industry’s traditions and heritage, and our goal is not to erase them, but to evolve them in a way that aligns with modern ethical standards. 

This ethos of leadership with personal accountability underpins every initiative we take. While the journey is fraught with challenges and resistance, it is also replete with the fulfillment that comes from contributing to an industry we are passionate about. We stand at the intersection of tradition and innovation, fully aware of the sacrifices required, fueled by the conviction that meaningful change, though arduous, is indeed achievable. Our courage and resilience in the face of adversity should inspire hope for a better future in the dairy industry.

Confronting Resistance: Navigating the Deeply Personal Nature of the Dairy Industry 

The dairy industry’s profoundly personal nature lies at the heart of the challenge. It’s an industry built on passion, heritage, and familial ties, where livelihoods intertwine as professions and as ways of life. Consequently, resistance was inevitable when the Bullvine began to address controversial topics. 

This resistance emanates from an inherent fear of change, a common sentiment among those who have devoted their lives to traditional practices. The Bullvine’s calls for transparency and accountability threatened to disrupt long-standing norms, provoking apprehension among industry veterans. These individuals, who have spent years honing their craft, are not just facing a change in methodologies, but a potential upheaval of their very identity. Understanding and empathy for their personal sacrifices is crucial in our journey towards a more ethical dairy industry. 

Moreover, the intimate connections that define the dairy community often magnify opposition. Relationships and reputations are at stake, making the discourse profoundly personal. It’s not just about altering business practices; it’s about challenging the status quo and, in doing so, risking the ire of peers and mentors whose approval carries significant weight. 

Add to this the phenomenon of vocal yet reticent supporters who, while advocating for change behind closed doors, hesitate to publicly back initiatives out of fear of isolation or retribution. The Bullvine has encountered such resistance firsthand, noting that many who passionately discuss the need for reform in private settings are the same individuals who retreat when the debates become public and contentious. 

This multifaceted resistance underscores a critical truth: change in the dairy industry is not merely a procedural shift. It requires a cultural transformation that demands courage and collective will. Yet, despite these challenges, The Bullvine remains resolute, driven by the belief that an industry as vital as dairy deserves a future where innovation and integrity coexist.

From Elite Abandonment to Grassroots Revival: The Bullvine’s Evolution

A funny thing happened on the way to change. The call started by some of the biggest names in the industry, which have abandoned the charge, is now supported by the average breeder. The groundswell of support we have received from our readers has been insane! Upon the stones laid by those turncoats, the banner was taken up by those who felt they never had a voice. And that, too, has changed the voice of the Bullvine. What started as a voice for education in the marketplace has now become a megaphone for the market to educate its leaders on the need for change. What began as a new way to market, sell, and breed dairy cattle has now become a rallying cry for those who never had their voices heard.

The Bottom Line

As we reflect on our journey from a small group to a burgeoning and passionate community, we recognize our significant strides. The transformation has been remarkable, fueled by a collective yearning for transparency and a commitment to advancing the dairy industry. The Bullvine began as a voice for a few. Still, it has grown to echo the concerns and aspirations of many, spanning diverse backgrounds and expertise levels. This groundswell of support is a testament to our efforts and an affirmation of the universal desire for positive change. 

The path has been laden with challenges, from facing resistance to navigating the industry’s deeply personal nature. However, with each hurdle, our resolve has only strengthened. We’ve witnessed firsthand the trials of advocating for change. Still, we’ve also seen the power of unity and the impact of a principled stand. The initial sense of isolation has given way to a robust and dynamic community built on shared values and a vision for a brighter future. 

We remain steadfast in our commitment, undeterred by the obstacles. Our mission still needs to be completed, but our progress speaks volumes about what is possible when passion, integrity, and a shared purpose converge. Together, we march forward, driven by the belief that a better future for the dairy industry is not just a possibility but an inevitability. With new leaders emerging and fresh voices joining the chorus, the Bullvine will continue championing the cause for excellence, innovation, and enduring change.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Bullvine challenges traditional practices in the dairy industry, addressing issues such as AI organizations, photo ethics, show ethics, and herd management.
  • This platform aims to give a voice to dairy farmers, breeders, and industry stakeholders who seek change and transparency.
  • The Bullvine’s efforts have sparked significant discussions, promoting transparency and ethical reform within the industry.
  • The publication acknowledges the passion and personal investment of those involved in the dairy industry, recognizing that this drive fuels the demand for change.
  • Courageous leadership is highlighted as essential for the industry’s long-term sustainability and ethical advancement.
  • The Bullvine started with support from prominent industry figures but now finds significant support from average breeders, indicating a grassroots revival.
  • The platform has grown into a major community-driven movement, advocating for the future of dairy farming with a vision greater than financial gain.
  • New leaders and voices have emerged, inspired by the Bullvine’s mission, reinforcing that change, though challenging, is crucial and worthwhile.

Summary: The Bullvine is a platform that addresses controversial topics in the dairy industry, such as artificial insemination (AI) organizations, photo ethics, show ethics, and high-pressure herd management. Established to provide a platform for dairy farmers, breeders, and industry stakeholders to voice their concerns, the Bullvine has emerged as a bold new voice in an industry steeped in tradition. Their articles and discussions have shed light on previously unexplored aspects of the industry, sparking a wave of transparency and ethical reform. The Bullvine’s vision was driven by an unwavering commitment to address pressing issues that many within the dairy industry preferred to sidestep. Their efforts have sparked passionate exchanges from individuals who see their livelihood and heritage tied to the arguments. Courageous leadership in the dairy industry is essential for ensuring long-term sustainability and promoting ethical practices.

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