Archive for industry developments

Proposed Federal Milk Marketing Order (FMO) Update “Make Allowances” Could Drastically Cut Dairy Farmers’ Profits

How will the new USDA rule on milk processing allowances affect your dairy farm profits? Are you ready for changes in milk prices?

Summary: As the USDA proposes to adjust the ‘make allowances’ under Federal Order 30, dairy farmers might see lower milk prices. This change aims to help processors cover their increased manufacturing costs but risks cutting farmers’ margins. The interconnectedness of dairy producers, processors, and consumers makes this balance crucial. Federal Milk Marketing Orders have historically played a key role in stabilizing the industry, ensuring fair prices for all parties to sustain the future of dairy farming. According to the National Milk Producers Federation, processing milk costs have risen by 50% since 2008. Processors argue that the current allowances do not match today’s economic conditions and need updating. If processors get more funds to cover expenses, farmers might get less for their raw milk, putting pressure on farmers juggling fluctuating milk prices and sustainability issues. Lower earnings could hinder their ability to invest in better equipment or sustainable practices.

  • USDA’s proposed adjustment to ‘make allowances’ could lower milk prices for dairy farmers.
  • This change is intended to aid processors in covering escalating manufacturing costs.
  • Balance between dairy producers and processors is essential for fair profit distribution in the industry.
  • Federal Milk Marketing Orders have historically stabilized the dairy industry, ensuring fair pricing.
  • Milk processing costs have surged by 50% since 2008, according to the National Milk Producers Federation.
  • Updating make allowances could burden farmers, impacting their ability to invest in equipment and sustainable practices.
USDA regulation, dairy farmers, earnings, milk processors, make allowances, increased production costs, raw milk, National Milk Producers Federation, processing milk, economic reality, financial impact, milk prices, sustainability, product offerings, energy efficiency, milk quality, federal milk marketing orders, industry developments, fair future.

Are you a dairy farmer trying to make ends meet? Brace yourself since a new USDA regulation may reduce your hard-earned earnings. This directive seeks to increase milk processors’ make allowances.’ But how does this affect you? Why should you care? Let us break it down. Let’s discuss what these planned changes imply for you, the dairy industry’s heart and soul. We’ll look at whether the new ‘ make allowances’ under Federal Order 30 protects the interests of processors at the cost of farmers. Does this approach result in cheaper milk costs for you? The critical point here is fairness—whether this shift disproportionately advantages one side of the business. We’ll talk about the logic behind the additional allowances, the financial burden farmers may experience, and the significant consequences for the dairy industry. 

Now, Let’s Break Down What ‘Make Allowances’ Actually Are 

Now, let’s define ‘ make accommodations.’ In layman’s words, make allowances are the expenditures that processors pay while turning raw milk into various products such as cheese, yogurt, and other dairy goods. Consider it the amount they charge for their services. This price covers a variety of expenditures associated with raw milk processing, such as personnel, equipment, and other operational costs. The plan intends to provide processors greater latitude in covering increased production costs by raising these allowances. However, this might imply that less money is available for the farmers who supply the raw milk in the first place.

According to the USDA, existing make allowances have not been adjusted in over a decade despite increased production costs. Processors are trying to balance the books as market prices fluctuate and overheads—such as energy, labor, and transportation—increase. According to the National Milk Producers Federation’s research, the cost of processing milk has grown by about 50% since 2008. With these rising costs, processors claim that the present limits no longer reflect economic reality, requiring the suggested changes.

Are you feeling a Bit Anxious About What These Changes Could Mean for Your Bottom Line? 

Of course, you’re right to be concerned. Any change in make allowances directly impacts the bottom line. Let’s talk numbers. According to the USDA, the proposed changes would increase the make allowances for cheese by $0.10 per pound, butter by $0.15 per pound, and nonfat dry milk by $0.10 per pound. What does that mean for you? Essentially, the processor’s cut increases for every hundredweight (cwt) of milk, which could decrease the amount you get paid by an estimated $0.70 to $1.10 per cwt. That’s not pocket change, especially when dealing with already thin margins. 

It’s worth noting that the average dairy farm, according to recent data, produces about 23,000 pounds of milk per cow per year. So, for a herd of 100 cows, you’re looking at potential annual losses ranging from $16,100 to $25,300. Can you absorb that hit without making some tough choices?

So, What Does All This Mean for You, the Dairy Farmer? 

Whether the make allowances are altered favorably or adversely, the financial rippling impact cannot be overlooked. You may receive less if milk processors get more of the pie to pay their expenses. Yes, we are talking about farmers possibly receiving reduced raw milk prices.

But who bears the burden if processors begin to take a larger share to pay these costs? Often, it is you. This might imply tightening an already tight budget. The real challenge for farmers is balancing this added pressure while already contending with fluctuating milk prices and sustainability considerations  . The potential impact on the dairy industry’s sustainability is a crucial aspect to consider in this discussion.

Consider this: if you’re paid less for your milk, how does that affect your capacity to invest back into your farm, maybe in better equipment or more sustainable practices? Every dollar matters, and with a modified make allowance, those dollars may be fewer and further between.

You’re Not Alone. Here’s How to Prepare for This Possible Shake-Up. 

You are not alone. But don’t fear; there are things you can do to prepare for this possible shake-up.

First, have you considered broadening your product offerings? Consider going beyond milk. Cheese, yogurt, and milk-based drinks may provide additional income streams and reduce your reliance on raw milk costs.

Another wise decision is to decrease expenditures intelligently. Could you improve the energy efficiency of your operations? Invest in technology to lower labor expenses. Sometimes, modest changes might result in huge savings.

It is also critical to be informed and engaged with industry associations. Connect with your local cooperative or industry organization. These groups may provide crucial assistance and campaign for fair treatment on your behalf.

Are you optimizing milk quality? Higher-quality milk may attract higher prices, offsetting the effect of lower base pricing. Quality testing and upgrades may be direct-return investments.

Remember: information is power. The more proactive and prepared you are, the more able you will be to deal with these changes. So, have you considered what measures to take next?

The Historical Backbone: How FMMOs Shaped Dairy Farming Into What It Is Today

The Agricultural Marketing Agreement Act 1937 introduced federal milk marketing orders (FMMOs). Their primary goal was to keep milk prices stable for producers while providing customers with an adequate supply of fresh milk. Over time, these directives have established minimum rates that processors must pay dairy farmers for their milk depending on how it will be utilized, such as in fluid products or processed items like cheese and yogurt. This pricing system seeks to balance the interests of both farmers and processors by reducing the volatility that has long plagued the dairy business.

These orders help farmers plan their activities by establishing a floor price that protects against market price fluctuations. They also provide a more reliable milk supply that meets customer demand across several locations. However, the system is sometimes criticized for its complexity, especially by smaller farmers who may lack the means to traverse price algorithms. Fixed pricing may not accurately represent current market circumstances, resulting in inefficiencies.

Understanding this history explains why modifications to make accommodations are so crucial. Adjusting these allowances might disrupt the delicate balance that FMMOs strive to maintain, thereby complicating life for dairy producers under economic challenges.

The Bottom Line

The adoption of Federal Order 30 intends to increase the ‘ make allowances’ for processors, possibly lowering the prices farmers get for milk. Despite the presence of several specialists and farmers at the proposed hearings, the subject remains controversial. The discussion over fair pricing, profitability, and dairy farming’s sustainability is constantly developing. Farmers must be aware and involved in industry developments to fight for their interests and ensure a fair future. The issue remains: how will you change to maintain your profits?

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Is the Summer Heat Finally Over? Dairy Farmers See Milk Production Stabilize but Challenges Remain!

Is the summer heat finally over? Discover how dairy farmers see milk production stabilize and what their ongoing challenges are in the changing market.

Summary: As summer draws close, dairy milk production is stabilizing, but the market remains tight, especially for spot milk, which commands premium prices. Cream supplies stay restricted even though butter production has increased. There is a stark contrast in exports: butter has significantly risen, while nonfat dry milk (NDM) exports continue to struggle. Cheese prices have shown resilience after a dip due to fluctuations in milk supply. Whey prices, after reaching multi-year highs, are now declining. Meanwhile, grain and feed prices have seen volatility, impacting producer margins. Farmers must navigate these shifts as fall approaches to capitalize on any market opportunities amid ongoing uncertainties.

  • Spot milk remains in high demand, with premiums averaging $1.25 over Class III prices in the Central U.S.
  • Butter production increased by 2.8% yearly to 169.2 million pounds in June.
  • Despite higher butter production, cream supplies are tight, prompting strategies like micro-fixing.
  • Butter exports surged by 31.8% yearly, with notable demand from Canada.
  • NDM exports struggled with a 10% decline in June compared to last year.
  • Cheese production fell by 1.4% in June, with American types like Cheddar seeing the most significant drops.
  • Cheddar block prices recovered from $1.84/lb on Monday to $1.9575/lb by Friday.
  • Whey protein isolate production rose 34% yearly, while dry whey production decreased by 7.5%.
  • Grain and feed prices experienced volatility but ended the week lower, potentially benefiting farmer margins.
Tranquil Texas meadow at sunrise with hay bales strewn across the landscape

Have you felt the high summer heat strain your cows and your patience? This summer has been a trial by fire for dairy producers, with high temperatures disrupting milk production. The persistent heat stressed out herds and taxed resources, causing productivity drops and narrowing margins. However, as the season progresses and temperatures stabilize, the question remains: are we through, or are there more challenges ahead? Despite some reprieve from the extreme heat, many dairy producers are still dealing with the effects. Tight milk supply and increasing prices exacerbate the continuing issues, keeping everyone on their toes as demand patterns change at the end of summer and the start of autumn. Your perseverance in the face of these hurdles is highly admirable.

ProductJune 2023 Production% Change Year Over YearSpot Price (End of Week)
Milk$1.25 over Class III prices
Butter169.2 million lbs+2.8%$3.0975/lb
Nonfat Dry Milk (NDM)188.3 million lbs-15.1%$1.20/lb
Cheddar Blocks1.161 billion lbs-1.4%$1.9575/lb
Dry Whey-7.5%$0.5625/lb

Can You Feel It? The Subtle Shift Signaling the End of Summer 

Could you sense it? The slight change in the air indicates the end of summer. Dairy producers around the country are breathing a sigh of relief as the blazing heat starts to subside, returning milk production to normal seasonal levels. However, not everything is going well just yet.

In certain parts of the nation, persistently high temperatures are reducing milk supply, creating a challenge to producers. Despite this, the business is resilient, with farmers working to satisfy demand. The spot milk market is very competitive, with producers paying a premium for more fabulous cargoes. For example, spot premiums in the Central United States are averaging $1.25 more than Class III pricing, up from last year.

This tight milk market is exacerbated by impending bottling facilities preparing for the school year. The strain is on, and as a dairy farmer, you probably feel it physically and metaphorically. How are you handling these fluctuations? Do these changes affect your production and costs?

Spot Milk Becomes the Season’s ‘White Gold’ as Demand Skyrockets

MonthClass III Milk Price ($/cwt)
May 2024$18.23
June 2024$18.06
July 2024$18.84
August 2024$19.30

Spot milk remains a popular item as the summer comes to an end. Many places have limited supply, forcing firms to pay a premium for more shipments. How much more, you ask? Dairy Market News reports that spot premiums in the Central United States average $1.25 over Class III pricing. That’s a 25-cent increase from last year. This increase is not a coincidence; it directly results from the persistent heat and humidity wreaking havoc on milk production. Given these challenges, it’s no surprise that demand and prices are soaring as the autumn season approaches.

The Never-Ending Demand: Cream Supplies Stay Tight Despite Butter Production Boost

Despite an increase in the butterfat composition of the milk supply, cream supplies have been somewhat limited this summer. It’s a mixed bag; although greater component levels have increased butter output, the availability of additional cream loads remains limited. Butter output in June increased by 2.8% yearly to 169.2 million pounds. Nonetheless, butter manufacturers nationwide strongly need an increased cream supply to satisfy production demands. The need for cream is never-ending—as soon as it rises, it’s gone, leaving everyone hungry for more.

The Resilient Butter Market: Stability Amid Seasonal Shifts 

Week EndingButter Market Price ($/lb)
June 7, 2024$2.75
June 14, 2024$2.85
June 21, 2024$2.90
June 28, 2024$2.95
July 5, 2024$3.00
July 12, 2024$3.05
July 19, 2024$3.10
July 26, 2024$3.07
August 2, 2024$3.09
August 9, 2024$3.10

The butter market has remained remarkably stable despite the periodic ebb and flow. The spot price at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) finished at $3.0975, down 0.75¢ from the previous week. While these data point to a relatively steady industry, there are still worries regarding future demand. With the baking and holiday season approaching, stakeholders will be watching closely to see whether retail activity picks up to match the expected increase in consumer demand. Will the market remain stable, or will there be a mad rush to buy more stocks? Stay tuned as the next several months expose the fundamental dynamics at work.

Butter’s Star Rises While NDM Fades: A Tale of Two Exports 

MonthButter Exports (million pounds)NDM Exports (million pounds)
June6.8134.4
Year-over-Year Change+31.8%-10%

Butter and nonfat dry milk (NDM) exports present a stark difference. Butter’s success has been nothing short of amazing, with exports up 31.8% in June, primarily due to rising demand from Canada. In concrete terms, it amounts to up to 6.8 million pounds sent overseas.

However, NDM exports are failing. They fell 10% compared to the same month last year, resulting in the lowest June volume since 2019. The United States shipped just 134.4 million pounds of NDM in June.

While a strong market drives butter exports, the NDM industry struggles with low demand. This lackluster performance has kept NDM spot prices relatively stable, preventing a substantial surge. Furthermore, the year-to-date results for NDM exports are down 11.6% from the previous year.

The NDM Puzzle: Low Supply Matches Tepid Demand, Keeping Prices Static

Week EndingNDM Spot Price ($/lb)
August 9, 20241.20
August 2, 20241.24
July 26, 20241.22
July 19, 20241.25
July 12, 20241.18
July 5, 20241.21

The supply and demand dynamics for nonfat dry milk (NDM) have been intriguing. Demand has been tepid, but so has the supply. In June, combined production of NDM and skim milk powder totaled only 188.3 million pounds, marking a significant 15.1% decrease from last year. However, this decline hasn’t yet led to a price surge, primarily because demand hasn’t picked up its pace. 

The spot price for NDM seems trapped in a tight range. Despite last week’s brief price rally, the NDM spot price dipped on four out of five trading days, losing 4 cents over the week to close at $1.20 per pound. During this period, 27 powder loads were traded, a notably high activity, with 17 loads moving on Tuesday alone. The low supply and weak demand keep everyone guessing when the market might see a dynamic shift.

Cheese’s Comeback Story: From Dips to Resilience and Everything In Between

ProductBeginning of Week Price (Aug 5, 2024)End of Week Price (Aug 9, 2024)Price Change
Cheddar Blocks$1.84/lb$1.9575/lb+10.75¢
Cheddar Barrels$1.93/lb$2.005/lb+7.5¢

Recently, cheese markets have shown to be quite resilient. Despite a decrease to $1.84/lb on Monday—the lowest since May—cheddar block prices returned to $1.9575/lb on Friday, representing a 10.75¢ rise from the previous week.

Overall, cheese exports started to drop in June. U.S. exporters delivered 85.7 million pounds of cheese overseas, a 9.1% rise yearly but lower than prior months’ record highs. Mexican demand remained strong, with 31.6 million pounds shipped, but down from May’s record of 40.4 million pounds.

Production data also show a slight decline. June witnessed a 1.4% year-over-year decrease to 1.161 billion pounds, with American cheeses, notably Cheddar, bearing the brunt of the downturn. Despite these obstacles, the cheese market’s essential stability remains, providing a bright spot in an otherwise complicated environment of shifting pricing and variable export levels.

Whey’s Wild Ride: From Multi-Year Highs to a Slow Descent 

Week EndingSpot Price per Pound (¢)
August 9, 202456.25
August 2, 202461.00
July 26, 202458.00
July 19, 202453.00
July 12, 202455.75
July 5, 202460.00

Despite prior highs, the dry whey market has significantly decreased this week. From Tuesday to Friday, the spot price progressively declined. By the end of the week, it had been reduced to 56.25¢ per pound, down 4.75¢ from the previous Friday.

Several causes have contributed to the current decline. Reduced cheese production has had a substantial influence on the whey stream. As cheese manufacturing slows, the supply of whey—a byproduct—dwindles. Manufacturers are also concentrating more on high-protein goods such as whey protein isolates, with production up 34% yearly in June.

Furthermore, export demand for whey remains high. Recovering pork prices in China has sparked a rebound in hog breeding, increasing demand for dry whey and permeate as piglet feed. This strong demand has helped to maintain market tension even as prices fall. The following weeks will indicate whether these dynamics have stabilized or continue distorting pricing.

Let’s Talk Grains and Feed: Did You Notice the Recent Jolt in Corn and Soybean Futures? 

DateCorn Futures (DEC24)Soybean Futures (DEC24)
August 5, 2024$4.02/bu$10.25/bu
August 6, 2024$4.01/bu$10.22/bu
August 7, 2024$4.00/bu$10.18/bu
August 8, 2024$3.99/bu$10.10/bu
August 9, 2024$3.97/bu$10.08/bu

Let’s discuss cereals and feed. Did you see the recent spike in maize and soybean futures? Monday’s market pandemonium spiked, but don’t get too excited—it didn’t stay. By Thursday, DEC24 corn futures had dropped to $3.97/bu, down nearly a cent from the previous week’s closing. Soybeans settled at $10.0825/bu., down roughly 20¢ from last Friday.

Despite the market instability, the drop in grain and feed costs is encouraging. Lower pricing might offer producer profits the boost they urgently need. When your inputs are less expensive, you may boost your earnings. Could this imply brighter days for your bottom line? We will have to wait and see.

Brace Yourself for Fall: Market Dynamics and Environmental Factors That Could Shake Things Up 

As we enter the winter months, dairy producers can expect a combination of market dynamics and environmental variables. The recent stability of milk output suggests that things are returning to normal, but don’t get too comfortable. Experts believe that demand for spot milk will stay strong owing to increasing bottling operations once schools resume. This might keep milk premiums high, reducing profit margins even further. Cream supplies are anticipated to remain limited, especially as butter production increases. While this may benefit butter producers, people relying on cream can expect continued shortages and increased prices.

Do not anticipate a significant increase in nonfat dry milk (NDM). Prices will remain stable as supply and demand are in a holding pattern. However, there is a ray of light as several Southeast Asian regions see growing demand. Despite recent turbulence in global stocks, cheese markets seem to have stabilized. The present prices are stable, but increased prices may ultimately reduce demand. Keep a watch on exports; they’ve dropped but remain robust, especially in Mexico.

Finally, the grain and feed markets have seen short rises before returning to their previous levels. This change may reduce feed prices, which is always good news as we approach a season in which every penny matters. Dairy producers should be careful. The market is a complicated web of possibilities and problems, ranging from limited cream supply to steady cheese pricing and fluctuating grain markets. Prepare for a tumultuous few months, and keep an eye on market signals to navigate this complex terrain effectively.

Surviving the Roller Coaster: How Dairy Farmers Can Profit Amid Market Chaos 

The current market circumstances have critical economic ramifications for dairy producers. Price fluctuations in milk, butter, cheese, and other dairy products may substantially influence farm profitability. As spot milk becomes the season’s ‘white gold’, with manufacturers paying premiums for more loads, milk sales income may rise. On the other hand, tighter supplies may put farmers under pressure, particularly in the heat of late summer. High butter prices provide some comfort but create concerns about future demand as retail activity for the baking and holiday season gradually increases.

So, how can farmers deal with these economic challenges? Diversify product offers to ensure consistent cash sources. Instead of focusing on a single dairy product, diversify into butter, cheese, and whey protein isolates. Diversification may protect against price volatility in any particular category. Stay informed about industry developments and export prospects. Recognize demand increases in Southeast Asia for milk powder or rising butter demand from Canada to use resources more wisely.

Invest in technology and process upgrades to boost manufacturing efficiency. Use data analytics to forecast trends, stress-resistant feed to keep yields high during harsh weather, and invest in sustainable practices to satisfy regulatory requirements. Farmers may effectively handle economic changes by taking a proactive strategy that includes diversification, trend research, and strategic investments.

The Bottom Line

As we go through these cyclical adjustments, essential conclusions emerge. Milk production has mostly returned to normal. However, regional heat remains a cause of disturbance. The struggle for spot milk heats up, with cream and cheese markets showing mild resistance. Butter production expands after the summer, but NDM fails to gain momentum. Despite price volatility, the cheese business has experienced a spectacular recovery, although grain and feed costs vary, reflecting the more significant market uncertainty. So, what does this mean for you, a dairy farmer? It is essential to remain alert and adaptable. Are your operations prepared to endure market swings and capitalize on new opportunities? Stay informed and adaptive, and keep an eye on market trends. The dairy industry is continuously evolving; being prepared might make a difference. What strategies will you use to flourish in these uncertain times?

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