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WASDE Surprise: Grain Markets Shift While Dairy Producers Face Feed Cost Opportunity

Trade war turmoil slashes soybean prices—discover how dairy farmers can cut feed costs now!

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The April 2025 WASDE report tightened U.S. corn stocks but revealed a hidden opportunity for dairy producers as soybean meal prices dropped $10/ton amid escalating U.S.-China tariffs. While corn exports rose, soybean demand remains shackled by China’s retaliatory 125% tariffs, creating volatility that masks potential feed cost savings. USDA held South American crop estimates steady despite weather risks, but trade tensions overshadow fundamental data. Dairy operations could save thousands annually by locking in cheaper soybean meal—if they act before Brazil’s harvest or tariff shifts upend markets.

KEY TAKEAWAYS:

  • Corn stocks drop 75M bushels as exports offset weak feed demand, stabilizing prices at $4.35/bu.
  • Soybean meal prices fall to $300/ton despite higher U.S. crush volume—a $7,500 annual saving for 500-cow herds.
  • China’s 125% tariffs on U.S. goods risk soybean market collapse but offer dairy farms rare feed cost relief.
  • South America’s crop stability (169M tons Brazil soybeans) hinges on recent rains compensating for early drought.
  • Act now: Lock in SBM contracts, optimize rations, and monitor trade talks to capitalize on short-term price dips.
grain markets, WASDE report, dairy feed costs, soybean meal prices, U.S.-China trade war

The April 2025 WASDE report just dropped, and buried in all those government numbers is a potential profit bomb for your dairy operation. While corn stocks tightened more than the market gurus expected and this trade war with China has hit fever pitch, there’s good news hiding in plain sight – soybean meal prices are heading down, creating a real opportunity to slash your feed costs. This seemingly dull USDA report contains signals that could make or break your bottom line in the months ahead.

The Hard Numbers: What WASDE Revealed

Corn Balance Sheet Gets Tighter

The April WASDE kept U.S. corn production at 14.87 billion bushels for the 2024-25 crop year but shuffled the demand deck. USDA cut projected feed use by 25 million bushels while boosting exports by a hefty 100 million bushels. This shift knocked ending stocks down to 1.465 billion bushels – a bigger drop than most market watchers saw coming.

Despite this tightening, USDA kept the average farm price at $4.35 per bushel. While supplies shrink, that price stability suggests there’s still enough corn to go around, even with the shifts in who’s buying it.

CategoryPrevious EstimateCurrent Estimate (2024-25)Change
Production14.87 billion bu14.87 billion bu0
Feed & Residual Use5.225 billion bu5.200 billion bu-25 million bu
Exports2.100 billion bu2.200 billion bu+100 million bu
Ending Stocks1.540 billion bu1.465 billion bu-75 million bu
Season-Avg Price$4.35/bu$4.35/bu0

Soybean Meal: The Hidden Opportunity

Here’s where dairy folks need to pay attention – USDA just knocked $10 per ton off the projected soybean meal price, now forecasting $300 per ton. This price cut comes even as they project more beans to crushers (up to 10 million bushels), which means more meal production (57.3 million tons).

Let’s put that in real terms for your operation: If you’re running 500 cows and using about 1.5 tons of soybean meal per cow yearly, this price drop means $7,500 straight to your bottom line. That’s not chump change when milk prices are squeezing margins.

CategoryPrevious EstimateCurrent Estimate (2024-25)Change
Soybean Production4.37 billion bu4.37 billion bu0
Crush Volume2.300 billion bu2.310 billion bu+10 million bu
SBM Production57.2 million tons57.3 million tons+0.1 million tons
SBM Ending Stocks450,000 tons450,000 tons0
SBM Price$310/ton$300/ton-$10/ton

Trade War Explodes: What It Means for Your Feed Costs

Unprecedented Tariff Escalation

The backdrop to all this is the trade war that’s gone nuclear. Today (April 11, 2025), China jacked up tariffs on American imports from 84% to 125%. This comes after Trump cranked U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods to 145%. It’s a full-blown economic shootout.

Soybean Market in Turmoil

The American Soybean Association says U.S. soybean growers could lose $5.9 billion annually from these tariffs. Despite this mess, China is expected to import about 3 million tons of U.S. soybeans from April to May.

According to Reuters, over 30 shipments (about 2 million tons) are heading to China in the coming weeks and will get hit with the initial 10% tariff. Another 15 vessels carrying about 800,000 tons are expected to be hammered after May 13, and a 44% tariff will be applied.

South American Production: The Other Wild Card

Weather Recovery in Brazil and Argentina

The April WASDE kept corn and soybean production estimates steady for Argentina and Brazil. USDA says “recent rains have eased concerns” about the dry weather that hit early in the growing season.

Brazil’s soybean production stays at 169 million metric tons, while Argentina’s is at 49 million metric tons. These numbers look stable on paper, but there’s still plenty of uncertainty about whether those recent rains were enough to compensate for the early-season drought stress.

CountryCropUSDA Estimate (million metric tons)Key Risk Factor
BrazilSoybeans169.0Delayed rainfall recovery
BrazilCorn126.0Safrinha crop vulnerability
ArgentinaSoybeans49.0Persistent soil moisture deficits
ArgentinaCorn50.0Late-season frost potential

Dairy Producer Action Plan: Capitalize Now

Feed Cost Management Strategies

  1. Lock in Soybean Meal Needs Now: With SBM prices dropping, it’s time to secure some of your protein needs. If you’re running 500 cows, locking in even 40% of your annual needs at today’s prices could save you $3,000+ compared to last year.
  2. Get Your Nutritionist on the Phone: The price relationship between corn (holding steady) and soybean meal (dropping) means it’s time to revisit your rations. Have your nutritionist run the numbers on tweaking your protein sources and energy-to-protein ratios based on these new prices.
  3. Tighten Up Your Feeding Program: Remember, for every percentage-point increase in NDF digestibility, your cows produce about half a pound more milk daily. Now’s the time to focus on feed efficiency – test your forages regularly, watch those refusals, and ensure your grouping strategy lets you target feed to different production levels.

Dairy Feed Cost Impact Table

Herd SizeAnnual SBM Use (tons)Cost Savings ($10/ton)
100 cows150$1,500
500 cows750$7,500
1,000 cows1,500$15,000
Assumes 1.5 tons/cow/year usage

The Dairy Market Context

Milk Price Forecasts

All this grain market drama is happening while dairy prices are shifting, too. USDA just cut the 2025 all-milk price forecast to $21.60/cwt, down a whole dollar from February’s projection and $1.01 below last year. For a 500-cow dairy pumping out 25,000 pounds per cow annually, that’s about $125,000 in lost revenue.

But here’s the silver lining – the FAO Food Price Index for March shows dairy prices running nearly 20% higher than last year while feed costs have dropped 2.6%. That’s creating a sweet spot where butter prices have jumped 3.9% even as cheese saw its first decline in nine months.

Market Outlook: What Smart Dairy Producers Are Watching

Near-Term Price Expectations

Corn prices respond somewhat to the traditional supply and demand signals, with futures ticking slightly on the tighter stocks picture. But even corn can’t wholly escape the trade war shadow.

For soybeans, it’s all about the trade fight with China. Until that gets sorted out, trade tensions will keep driving soybean prices more than any supply and demand report.

Key Watchpoints for Dairy Producers

If you’re running a dairy, keep your eyes on:

  • Any breaking news on US-China trade talks or new tariff announcements
  • Weather patterns and harvest reports coming out of South America
  • Export sales and shipment pace for both corn and soybeans
  • Early signs about this year’s U.S. planting season (how many acres, early weather issues)

The Bottom Line for Dairy Producers

The April WASDE report and all this trade drama create a profit opportunity through lower feed costs. While the trade war with China has the grain markets bouncing everywhere, the resulting pressure on soybean meal prices is good news for your feed bill – if you act on it.

Combining potentially cheaper feed and stronger dairy prices (especially for butterfat) creates a chance to improve your margins through innovative feed management and focusing your breeding program on high-component cows.

Don’t wait for more “market clarity” – the smart operators are now moving to lock in these feed cost advantages. You can’t control the markets, but you can control how you respond to them. In today’s crazy environment, that means moving quickly and strategically to capture feed cost savings while others are distracted by trade war headlines.

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CME Cheese Prices Rise as Grain Markets Decline

Find out how higher cheese prices and lower grain costs can increase your dairy farm profits. Ready to boost your earnings today?

Summary: Have you noticed the recent surge in cheese prices? CME cheese markets are on the rise with blocks hitting $2.0200 per pound, marking a two-cent increase, and barrels reaching $2.1600 per pound, a seven-cent jump. This uptick is the highest since October 2022. Meanwhile, butter prices took a slight dip to $3.1200 per pound. These changes in dairy markets are shaking things up! Spot cheese prices gave Class III futures a slight boost with Q4 rising to $20.93 per hundredweight, up eight cents. Meanwhile, Class IV prices climbed to $21.52 per hundredweight, adding 12 cents. The dairy industry is facing market changes that could impact profitability. Cheese prices have reached their highest since October 2022, boosting profits for dairy farmers. However, soybeans fell below the $10 mark and corn contracts dropped to $3.7775 a bushel. Reduced feed expenses can help dairy farmers increase profit margins. To stay ahead, dairy farmers should consider increasing cheese production, hedging bets with Class III futures, managing feed costs wisely, and understanding historical trends and external factors shaping dairy and grain markets.

  • Cheese prices have surged to their highest since October 2022, with blocks at $2.0200 per pound and barrels at $2.1600 per pound.
  • Butter prices have dipped slightly to $3.1200 per pound.
  • Spot cheese prices have boosted Class III futures, with Q4 prices at $20.93 per hundredweight.
  • Class IV prices also rose to $21.52 per hundredweight, driven by strong cheese market performance.
  • Grain markets saw a decline, with soybeans falling below the $10 mark and corn contracts dropping to $3.7775 per bushel.
  • Reduced feed expenses present an opportunity for dairy farmers to improve profit margins.
  • Strategies for dairy farmers: Increase cheese production, leverage Class III futures, manage feed costs, and stay informed about market trends.

Have you ever considered how the newest market developments can affect your bottom line as a dairy farmer? Well, be ready, as the present cheese and grain markets have shocks that can significantly impact your profitability. With blocks increasing to $2.0200 per pound and barrels reaching their highest price since October 2022 at $2.600 per pound, cheese prices are rising. Given Q4 climbing to $20.93 per hundredweight, spot cheese prices have somewhat raised Class III futures. Class IV costs have increased to $21.52 in the meantime. Grain prices are dropping while milk futures are rising. The declining prices of soybeans and maize might impact feed expenses. Are you ready to optimize your earnings by negotiating these changes in the market?

ProductCurrent Price per PoundChangeVolume Traded
Blocks of Cheese$2.0200+2 cents6 loads
Barrels of Cheese$2.1600+7 cents3 lots
Butter$3.1200-2 cents11 loads
Class III Futures (Q4)$20.93 per hundredweight+8 cents
Class IV Futures (Q4)$21.52 per hundredweight+12 cents
Soybeans (August)$9.8900 per bushel-23 cents
Soybean Meal Futures (Sept-Dec)Below $300/ton
Corn (Nearby Contract)$3.7775 per bushel-5.5 cents

Have You Noticed the Recent Changes in the Market? Cheese is Getting Pricier! 

Have you seen the current market changes? Cheese prices are rising! While barrels shot to $2.600 per pound, the most since October 2022, blocks of cheese have touched $2.0200 per pound. For a dairy farmer, these increasing rates indicate increased profits.

However, that is not all! Grain markets are sliding as cheese prices rise. Soybeans came under the $10 level, while the local corn contract plummeted to $3.7775 a bushel. These declining grain prices might cut your feed expenses.

What do these market changes mean for your dairy farm? The combination of lower grain prices and higher cheese prices presents a significant opportunity to increase your profitability. By closely monitoring these market changes and making appropriate plans, you can position your farm for increased earnings.

Wondering What This All Means for You? Let’s Break it Down with Some Numbers: 

What does this all mean for you? Let’s break it down with some numbers: 

  • Cheese Prices: Barrels have shot up to $2.600 per pound, while blocks have ascended to $2.0200 per pound. These rates have not been this high since October 2022, indicating a significant increase in profitability.
  • Butter Prices: Butter did not do well; it dropped two pennies to $3.1200 per pound.
  • Milk Futures: Class III futures raised spot cheese prices; Q4 prices increased to $20.93 per hundredweight. Prices in Class IV rose to $21.52 per hundredweight.
  • Soybean and Corn Markets: The August soybean contract sank from $10 to $9.8900 a bushel. September through December, soybean meal futures fell short of $300 a ton. Corn didn’t buck the trend, falling to $3.7775 a bushel.

As a dairy farmer, these figures reflect substantial shifts, and it’s crucial for you to stay updated and adapt accordingly.

Well, These Changes Could Be a Goldmine for Dairy Farmers Like You 

These developments may be a gold mine for dairy producers like you. Allow me to dissect it. Rising cheese costs imply extra bucks per pound for your goods. With blocks reaching $2.0200 per pound and barrels rising to $2.600 per pound, you are looking at some of the best gains since October 2022.

Higher cheese prices immediately increase earnings since it affects the milk price used in cheese manufacturing. Class III futures cost $20.93 per hundredweight and have benefited somewhat. Thus, the milk you utilize for cheese-making gets you more incredible rates. The Class IV futures, which rose to $21.52 per hundredweight even though butter prices dropped somewhat, reflect the same pattern.

They are concerned about how this would affect your feed expenses. The good news is right here. Slipping grain markets implies you will pay less on feed. Both maize prices and soybean futures are declining. The neighboring corn contract dropped to $3.7775 per bushel, while the August soybean contract dropped to less than $10. Reduced feed expenses can help your profit margins even more.

So, What’s Next for You as a Dairy Farmer in Light of These Price Changes? 

What’s Next for You as a Dairy Farmer in Light of These Price Changes?

Consider Increasing Cheese Production: Now could be the ideal moment to concentrate more of your efforts on cheese manufacturing, given blocks at $2.0200 per pound and barrels at $2.1600 per pound. This might involve changing your cow’s nutrition to maximize milk quality for cheese, investing in cheese processing equipment, or investigating new kinds to satisfy consumer demand.

Hedge Your Bets with Class III Futures: Since Class III futures slightly increased, consider locking in these rates to guarantee your income for the following quarters. This might provide a safety blanket against further price swings.

Manage Feed Costs Wisely: Examining your feed expenses is a perfect opportunity since grain prices are sliding mostly in soybeans and corn. Could you buy in bulk at these reduced rates to ensure your herd always has enough? Control of feed costs can help to increase your profit margins.

Review Financial Planning: Given the rising Class IV charges and declining grain prices, now might be an excellent time for a financial check-up. Make sure your budget fits current market circumstances; next, look at financing choices that could provide better terms because of the improved state of the dairy industry.

Maintaining knowledge and adaptability will make a big difference in these fast-changing times. Your dairy farm may leverage these changes in the market to bring significant benefits by carefully modifying your financial plans and output level.

Understanding the Bigger Picture: How Historical Trends and External Factors Shape Dairy and Grain Markets

Knowing the history of the grain and dairy markets would help one understand present pricing movements. Traditionally, variations in feed costs, weather, and supply and demand dynamics have all affected dairy prices. For example, cheese prices peaked in October 2022 before steadily declining; until lately, they have bounced back to exceed $2 per pound.

Other outside elements are also in action. Trade agreements, customer preferences, and geopolitical developments may disturb the market’s stability. For dairy and grain goods, for instance, the trade conflicts between the United States and China caused significant market disturbances.

Conversely, seasonal trends, including planting and harvest seasons and worldwide supply chain problems, significantly affect grain prices. Usually, the spring and summer planting seasons mark the peaks in soybean and corn prices. However, excellent weather conditions, rising crop yields, and an overabundance in the market have helped explain the declining trend in grain prices in recent months.

Monitoring previous patterns and outside variables can help you, as a dairy farmer, better predict market changes and make wise company choices.

The Bottom Line

Now, here is the deal. Rising cheese prices boost Class III futures so that you can find some possibility for higher income there. Although butter prices did drop, Class IV prices did not significantly change. Conversely, grain markets are contracting, which can result in less feed expenses for you. Your dairy farm may benefit financially from these developments. Still, do not rely only on your laurels. Watch these market trends, be educated, be flexible, and, if feasible, seek possibilities. Remain aware. Though the industry constantly changes, you can keep ahead with the proper knowledge and proactive attitude.

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Strange Day in Dairy: Class III Futures Up, Cheese and Grain Markets Down

Explore the unusual shifts in dairy markets: Class III futures rise while cheese and grain prices fall. What will the USDA Milk Production report reveal for May?

As the dairy markets reopened after the mid-week break in honor of Juneteenth, a significant cultural event was celebrated annually on June 19 to commemorate the ending of slavery in the United States. Traders and analysts were keenly looking for a clear direction. It was a peculiar day indeed — while the cheese spot market moved lower, Class III futures were higher. Let’s delve into these unusual market movements and unravel the factors.

Understanding the underlying numbers can provide clarity as the dairy markets react to a whirlwind of influences. Below is a snapshot of the current market trends: 

MarketPriceChangeVolume
Class III Futures$18.75/cwt+0.5010,000 contracts
Cheese Blocks$1.8525/lb-0.007513 loads
Cheese Barrels$1.9300/lb-0.01007 loads
Nonfat Dry Milk$1.2075/lb+0.01751 lot
Corn (Dec Futures)$4.5675/bushel-0.075050,000 contracts
Soybeans (Dec Futures)$11.50/bushel-0.125045,000 contracts

Class III Futures Market Sees Surprising Uptick Amid Recent Downward Trends

The Class III futures market saw an interesting uptick despite recent declines. This rebound was a bit surprising. What could be driving this shift?  One possibility is the market catching its breath. After falling prices, minor adjustments and corrections are normal. Traders might see recent lows as too harsh, sparking a buying spree. Expectations of positive news might also play a role, prompting a preemptive move.  Whatever the cause, this uptick adds a new dynamic to an already complex market. Understanding these fluctuations is not just important, it’s crucial to our role as traders and analysts, as it allows us to anticipate and react to market changes.

A Day of Divergence: Cheese Spot Market Buckles Amid Class III Futures Rally

This was an unusual day for the cheese spot market. The cheese sector faced a downward trend despite Class III futures moving higher. ‘Blocks ‘, a type of cheese, dipped to $1.8525 per pound with 13 loads trading. ‘Barrels ‘, another type of cheese, slipped by a penny to $1.9300 per pound with seven lots exchanged.  So, what’s behind this decline? It seems to boil down to supply and demand dynamics and external economic factors. An oversupply of cheese or reduced demand from critical buyers might drive prices down. Economic uncertainties and fluctuations in global dairy trade could also impact the market.

Grain Markets Plunge as Crop Conditions Brighten and Futures Hit Lows Since February

Corn and soybeans saw a significant drop in the grain markets, driven by good crop conditions and ‘technical selling ‘, a strategy where traders sell based on technical indicators rather than fundamental analysis. December futures fell to $4.5675 per bushel, the lowest since February. A positive crop outlook has reassured traders, leading to a wave of selling and pushing prices down.

Nonfat Dry Milk Prices Climb Amid Potential Market Demand Surge and Rising Costs

Nonfat dry milk prices increased to $1.2075 per pound, up $0.0175, with one lot traded. This rise could be due to higher market demand, rising production costs, or shifts in consumer behavior towards dairy products. These elements, along with other factors, will be critical to watch to understand broader dairy market trends.

New Zealand’s Milk Production: A Temporary Decline or a Long-term Trend?

New Zealand’s milk production has declined for the third month. May saw a 4.3% drop year-over-year on a milk solids basis and a 6.2% decrease on a tonnage basis. This might seem concerning, but NZX attributes it to variable weather and pasture conditions.  Despite these drops, the production levels align with the five-year rolling average. So, while the recent declines are notable, they’re part of a long-term pattern with both highs and lows. This decline could have implications for the global dairy market, as New Zealand is a major exporter of dairy products.

The Bottom Line

The dairy markets had an unusual day. While the cheese spot market fell, Class III futures unexpectedly rose, reflecting the inherent unpredictability of the market. Grain markets dropped due to good crop conditions and technical selling, with December futures at their lowest since February. Nonfat dry milk prices rose slightly, hinting at increased demand. New Zealand’s milk production declined for the third consecutive month, sparking questions about future trends. All eyes are now on tomorrow’s USDA Milk Production report for May, a reminder of the constant vigilance required in our field.

Key Takeaways:

  • Cheese spot market prices dropped while Class III futures saw a surprising increase.
  • Grain markets took a significant hit, with December futures for corn and soybeans reaching lows not seen since February.
  • Nonfat dry milk prices witnessed a notable rise, suggesting potential increased market demand or rising production costs.
  • New Zealand’s milk production continued to decline for the third consecutive month due to variable weather and pasture growth conditions.
  • The upcoming USDA Milk Production report for May is a significant watch factor for tomorrow’s market movements.

Summary:

Dairy markets experienced an unusual day, with Class III futures rising unexpectedly and grain markets dropping due to good crop conditions and technical selling. The cheese spot market saw prices drop to $1.8525 per pound and barrels to $1.9300 per pound, driven by supply and demand dynamics and external economic factors. The grain market experienced a significant drop due to good crop conditions and technical selling, with December futures falling to $4.5675 per bushel, the lowest since February. Nonfat dry milk prices increased to $1.2075 per pound, up $0.0175, due to higher market demand, rising production costs, or shifts in consumer behavior towards dairy products. New Zealand’s milk production has declined for the third consecutive month, with a 4.3% drop year-over-year on a milk solids basis and a 6.2% decrease on a tonnage basis. The USDA Milk Production report for May will provide further insights into future trends.

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