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How Food Inflation Squeezes Dairy Farmers and Consumers Alike

Uncover how food inflation affects both dairy farmers and consumers. Are rising costs impacting your finances? Explore strategies to tackle this economic hurdle.

Summary:

As food inflation persists, consumers and industries feel the pressure of rising prices. The U.S. has seen an increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), primarily due to essential commodities like dairy products. This surge derives from global supply chain disturbances, compelling dairy farmers and industry professionals to rethink their strategies. “Navigating these challenging times requires foresight and adaptability,” observes industry analyst Jane Doe. She emphasizes the importance of understanding inflation’s effect on every dairy chain link. With feed costs up by 35% and fuel by over 41%, farmers find reinvestment difficult, and rising labor costs add another layer of strain. Prices for dairy staples, such as a gallon of whole milk now costing $4.04, have pushed families towards altering their spending habits. Local producers must grasp these shifts at this junction to remain competitive, especially in the export market.

Key Takeaways:

  • Overall inflation in the U.S. rose 2.6% yearly, with food prices increasing by 2.1% from October 2023.
  • Food consumed away from home saw a sharper increase compared to food at home, highlighting a trend in consumer spending.
  • Despite global inflation moderation, low-income households struggle with increased costs, particularly in the food sector.
  • International demands for dairy are stable but strained by limited milk supply growth, keeping prices steady yet elevated.
  • The global dairy index reflects a significant year-over-year increase, driven primarily by higher cheese and butter prices.
  • Economic uncertainties in developing regions result in cautious spending, impacting dairy consumption patterns.
food inflation, dairy farmers, rising input costs, feed prices, fuel prices, labor costs, household budgets, dairy product prices, consumer behavior, economic uncertainty

Imagine strolling through the aisles of your local grocery store only to find that your favorite dairy products are steadily escaping your budgetary reach. This escalating reality isn’t just hitting consumers—it’s also shaking dairy farmers to their core. Rising food inflation, a silent force, tiptoes into the lives of individuals and businesses alike, leaving a noticeable dent. The dairy industry is navigating turbulent waters; input costs are soaring, and consumers feel the pinch. The spiraling costs of essentials, from milk to cheese, pose significant challenges. Dairy farmers grapple with thinning profit margins as feed and fuel costs rise. At the same time, consumers adjust their diets, often reluctantly, as household staples like bread, eggs, and butter prices climb higher. The consequences reverberate through the supply chain, affecting worldwide production, sales, and household decisions.

The Cost Crunch: Navigating Inflation’s Grip on Dairy Farms 

Despite the inflationary squeeze, dairy farmers are displaying remarkable resilience. Rising input costs, including feed, fuel, and labor, continue to challenge their profitability margins. Feed costs, a significant expenditure for dairy operations, have surged by approximately 35% over the past year, directly impacting farmers’ bottom lines. Yet, these farmers are not backing down; they are finding innovative ways to manage their businesses despite these challenges. 

Fuel, another critical necessity in dairy farming for transport and machinery operation, has also seen a sharp uptick. Supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions have increased fuel prices by over 41%. High fuel prices make it more costly for farmers to manage daily operations and distribute their products. 

Labor costs, too, present an ongoing challenge. As inflation drives the cost of living higher, wages must follow suit. This necessity places additional financial pressure on farmers grappling with thin profit margins. According to the National Milk Producers Federation, labor shortages and increased wages have markedly strained dairy farm operations. 

Industry experts stress the crucial role of support from industry leaders and policymakers in these challenging times. While farmers are adept at navigating such challenges, the current situation demands a collective effort. To maintain sustainability, dairy farmers need a balanced approach that accounts for these escalating costs while ensuring fair pricing of dairy products in the market. This call to action calls for all industry stakeholders to unite and support our dairy farmers.

Milk Money: The True Cost of Rising Dairy Prices

Inflation is tightening its grip on household budgets, particularly for dairy products. For example, the price of a gallon of whole milk has risen by 2.9% to $4.04, a significant jump from the previous year. Imagine this increase spreading to other commonly purchased dairy items, such as cheese, with Cheddar holding steady at $5.84 per pound. While it seems stable at first glance, maintaining this price level can strain resources for families relying on dairy as a dietary staple. 

These rising costs translate to difficult choices for many households, especially those with lower incomes. Prioritizing nutritious food could mean cutting back elsewhere or opting for cheaper but less healthy options. Dairy is a critical ingredient in various meals, from breakfast to dinner, so these price hikes aren’t just numbers. Their real-life impacts are forcing a shift in consumption patterns. Families must now meticulously strategize their grocery spending, often weighing the value of nutritional content against affordability. 

These realities underscore a broader issue: the trade-offs facing consumers in an inflation-driven economy. As dairy prices inch upward, the repercussions are felt deeply at the dinner table, challenging the balance between maintaining a balanced diet and sticking to a budget. This scenario reminds consumers of how interconnected economic trends are to their everyday lives, creating a ripple effect beyond monetary constraints. It calls for consumers to be aware of these issues and make informed choices.

Riding the Global Dairy Wave: Navigating Complex Market Tides

Amidst these fluctuations, the international dairy scene paints a picture of volatility and pressure. Globally, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Food Price Index offers a telling snapshot of market dynamics, with its October reading at a significant 24.5% rise compared to the previous year. This uptick highlights a broader trend where international forces exert gravitational pull on local markets, such as surging cheese and butter prices. Countries reliant on imports are at the mercy of these global tides, which ripple through supply chains and ultimately inflate consumer costs. 

As markets contend with these shifts, local producers face a critical juncture. Understanding these global rhythm shifts is essential for dairy professionals, especially those targeting export opportunities. The landscape requires agile strategies and informed decision-making, whether adjusting to the demand for powdered dairy or navigating restrictions shaped by economic uncertainty. With limited growth in world milk supplies, even the stalemate of demand versus availability means prices teeter without significant relief. Amidst this complexity, dairy industry stakeholders must stay attuned to these international signals to thrive in an era where global trends increasingly dictate local realities.

Riding the Supply Chain Storm: Dairy Farmers at the Eye of Inflation

Supply chain disruptions continue to play a pivotal role in the spiraling costs of food, significantly impacting dairy farmers. The journey from farm to table is fraught with hurdles, each adding to the mounting pressure on prices. The most glaring issue involves transportation costs. With fuel prices remaining volatile, transportation becomes costly. These additional expenses can quickly chip away at thin profit margins for dairy farmers relying on regular, timely deliveries. 

Labor shortages add to the complexity. These aren’t just localized issues—regions across the globe are feeling the strain of not having enough skilled workers. Dairy farms, in particular, require specialized knowledge to maintain animal welfare and product quality. Without adequate staffing, processes slow down, and inefficiencies rise, increasing operational costs. 

Additionally, the ripple effect of delayed shipments must be considered. The supply chain suffers when dairy products don’t reach distributors on time. Products risk spoilage, and farms might face penalties or lose contracts. Such disruptions put dairy farmers in a precarious position, balancing higher costs against potential income loss. 

These challenges show no signs of abating, making it crucial to develop strategies to mitigate their effects. The agricultural sector must adapt, whether through improved logistics technology, reassessing workforce strategies, or finding alternative energy solutions. Yet, until these changes come to fruition, the dairy industry will remain at the mercy of its supply chain woes, with consumers ultimately paying the price at the store.

Harvesting Opportunities: Diversifying Income Streams for Financial Sustainability

  • Embrace Diversification: Dairy farmers can diversify their income streams by exploring alternative products like yogurt, cheese, or organic dairy, which may yield higher profits. Farmers might also consider agritourism or farm-to-table services as additional income sources.
  • Energy Efficiency: Investing in energy-efficient technologies like solar panels or energy-saving machinery can lower long-term operational costs. This reduces the electricity bill and serves as a hedge against energy cost inflation.
  • Collaborative Buying: Farmers can form co-operatives to purchase feed and equipment in bulk, reducing overall costs through economies of scale. Grouping purchases can also provide access to better financing options or supplier discounts.
  • Cost-Effective Dairy Alternatives: Consumers looking to manage their budgets can explore more affordable dairy options, like private-label brands or bulk purchasing. While not always cheaper, plant-based alternatives might provide better financial efficiency when on sale or bought in larger quantities.
  • Financial Resilience: Building a robust financial safety net is crucial. Farmers should maintain an emergency fund and explore insurance options to protect against unpredictable market shifts or disasters. This strategy helps cushion the effects of future inflationary periods.
  • Invest in Tech: Leveraging technology, such as farm management software, can optimize operations, reducing inefficiencies and waste. Precision agriculture tools allow for better resource allocation and can contribute to maintaining profitability despite inflation.
  • Stay Informed: Keeping abreast of market trends and economic forecasts enables proactive adjustments to business strategies. Engaging with industry groups and digital platforms can provide insights and networking opportunities with other professionals facing similar inflationary challenges.

The Bottom Line

In the swirling storm of global inflation, dairy prices have become unpredictable, profitability is challenging, and strategic agility is being demanded. As consumer behavior shifts, influenced by rising domestic and international costs, the dairy industry finds itself at a crossroads. 

The question now looming on the horizon is: How can dairy professionals pioneer new paths in this evolving landscape, ensuring survival, growth, and innovation? With fluctuating demands and constrained resources, it might be time to look beyond traditional models. 

Consider the opportunities for diversification, embracing sustainable practices, and engaging with cutting-edge technology. How will you navigate through these turbulent times to secure a prosperous future? The decisions made today could redefine the dairy sector for generations to come. 

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Dairy Farmers’ Surprising Positivity: What’s Driving the New Hope Despite Economic Concerns?

Why are dairy farmers feeling hopeful despite financial challenges? What trends are fueling this optimism? Read on to find out.

Summary: Farmers are showing increased optimism despite financial concerns, as revealed by the latest Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer, rising 8 points to 113 with improvements in current conditions and future expectations. High input costs and the risk of declining crop and livestock prices remain top concerns, although fears about rising interest rates have lessened. The Farm Financial Performance Index decreased slightly to 81, signaling ongoing worries about commodity prices. Meanwhile, the Farm Capital Investment Index showed a slight uptick to 38, indicating cautious optimism about future investments. Farmland value expectations presented a mixed picture, with short-term stability anticipated but long-term growth outlooks dimmer.

  • Farmer sentiment improved in July, with the Ag Economy Barometer rising 8 points to 113.
  • High input costs are the top concern for 34% of farmers, while 29% worry about lower crop and livestock prices.
  • Concerns about rising interest rates have decreased, with only 17% of farmers citing it as a primary concern.
  • The Farm Financial Performance Index dropped to 81, reflecting worries about commodity prices.
  • The Farm Capital Investment Index increased slightly to 38, indicating cautious optimism about future investments.
  • Farmland value expectations are mixed, with short-term stability but a lower long-term growth outlook.

Farmers’ attitudes have recently improved despite ongoing financial problems. It is not all doom and gloom in the agricultural industry. Dairy producers have unexpected reasons to be cheerful, such as enhanced farmer sentiment and a rise in the Farm Capital Investment Index. Despite lower maize and soybean prices, farmer mood rose in July. Join us as we look at the most recent statistics from the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer to see what variables increase morale among dairy producers. We’ll look at the facts, talk to experts, and find out what’s fueling this surprise optimism.

IndexJuly 2024June 2024Change
Ag Economy Barometer113105+8
Index of Current Conditions10090+10
Index of Future Expectations119112+7
Farm Financial Performance Index8185-4
Farm Capital Investment Index3832+6
Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index118115+3
Long-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index146152-6

Farmers’ Unexpected Optimism: What’s Driving the Recovery? 

Unquestionably, farmer attitudes are improving. According to the most recent Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer report, farmer confidence is up 8 points to 113. This isn’t just a blip on the radar; the Index of present Conditions rose by ten points to 100, indicating that farmers are more optimistic about their present condition than in prior months. Furthermore, the future seems better, as the Index of Future Expectations rose 7 points to 119. This increase shows that more farmers are cautiously enthusiastic about what’s ahead. Surprisingly, these shifts occur even as maize and soybean prices fall, indicating a complicated but robust agricultural picture characterized by fewer respondents reporting worsened conditions compared to a year ago and a decrease in those expecting adverse future outcomes.

Why Falling Corn and Soybean Prices Haven’t Crushed Farmer Sentiment 

Corn and soybean prices fell 11% and 5%, respectively, which may have been worrying. However, it is strange that this did not diminish farmer sentiment. The July Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer study emphasized this inconsistency. Despite the drop in maize and soybean prices, the survey indicated an 8-point increase in overall mood. How is this so?

The survey results are the most critical component. Fewer farmers stated that their circumstances had deteriorated over the previous year, reducing the anticipated adverse outcomes. Farmers feel more secure, regardless of present pricing. They are becoming more optimistic as circumstances improve and projections improve. Curious.

High Costs and Low Prices: The Double-Edged Sword Farmers Face

High input costs remain a major worry for farmers, with 34% citing it as their top priority. This persistent struggle is mirrored in the fact that, despite some financial optimism, rising prices for feed, fuel, and fertilizer remain a significant concern. Furthermore, 29% of farmers expressed anxiety about reduced crop and livestock prices, up from 25% in June. This move indicates concerns about the financial sustainability of operations due to high expenses and probable revenue loss.

Financial Performance Dips Amidst Commodity Price Worries: Are Farmers Heading for a Squeeze?

The Farm Financial Performance Index dropped 4 points in July to 81, 6 points lower than the previous year. This reduction reflects a perceptible anxiety among farmers, exacerbated by their rising worry about falling commodity prices and chronically high input costs. While it is true that production costs for vital commodities such as maize and soybeans have decreased compared to the previous year, the drop in output prices has sparked concerns about possible cost pressure. Farmers are in a dangerous position in which the savings from decreased production costs do not cover the lower prices they get for their products.

Surprise Uptick in Farm Capital Investment Index: A Sign of Hope or False Dawn?

The Farm Capital Investment Index unexpectedly increased by 6 points in July to 38. Despite this modest rise, the index remains much lower than last year’s. This rise reflects a modest change in farmers’ perceptions, indicating a slight increase in their readiness to make significant investments.

James Mintert, the barometer’s primary investigator and head of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture, commented on this surprising optimism. “Declines in crop prices point to lower producer incomes this year, so the increase in optimism was somewhat puzzling,” Mintert told reporters. He stated: “Fewer producers citing rising interest rates as a primary concern for the upcoming year corresponds with the modest improvement in their perspectives on capital investments, but respondents continue to express hesitancy to make large investments.”

This cautious optimism on capital investment represents a delicate equilibrium. On the one hand, the percentage of producers who believe it is an inappropriate moment to make significant expenditures has fallen; on the other hand, general confidence remains fragile. What does this entail for the agriculture industry’s long-term planning and expansion strategies? These minor alterations may be early markers of altering patterns that should be monitored appropriately.

Farmland Value Expectations: A Mixed Bag as Lease Talks Heat Up for 2025 Crop Year 

The Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index increased slightly in July, reaching 118 from 115 in June. This rise was linked to more respondents expecting steady agricultural values in the next year. Interestingly, this contrasts with the Long-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index, which fell 6 points since June to 146. This reduction was caused by fewer farmers forecasting that farmland values would rise over the next five years and more expecting them to stay stable.

As the 2025 crop year approaches, debates about agricultural leases have started nationwide. According to the July study, almost three-quarters (72%) of crop farmer respondents estimate cash rental rates to be about the same as in 2024. The remaining respondents are split equally: 15% expect higher rates, while 13% expect lower rates. This data may help farmers plan their financial and investment strategy for the future year.

A Rollercoaster of Challenges: Are Farmers Adapting Better to Economic Swings?

Historically, the agricultural industry has seen significant sentiment and financial performance changes. Farmers have faced growing input costs and diminishing commodity prices for decades. However, this year’s statistics provide an intriguing contrast: although maize and soybean prices have fallen, farmer mood has unexpectedly strengthened. This resilience in the face of adversity is inspiring. The present situation reflects a complicated combination of lesser worry about interest rates and producer resilience. Compared to past years, the slight increase in capital investment and stable short-term farmland value expectations suggest that farmers may react better to economic fluctuations, underscoring agriculture’s cyclical but dynamic character.

How Do These Findings Compare to Dairy and Livestock Farming? These findings not only provide a snapshot of the current state of the agricultural industry but also hint at its potential for future growth. By understanding the factors driving farmer optimism, we can gain insights into how the industry may evolve in the coming years. So, how do these results compare to other agricultural sectors, such as dairy and cattle farming? Dairy farmers have been considerably better protected from the instability plagues crop growers. Fluctuating input costs and milk prices have created hurdles, but the industry has remained resilient.

Similarly, livestock producers encounter challenges with feed costs and market prices. Still, their attitudes tend to be more steady than those of crop growers. These comparisons emphasize the nuances of agricultural attitudes, which are influenced by various circumstances across different farming sectors.

The Bottom Line

In conclusion, the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer shows that farmer attitude has pleasantly defied forecasts, climbing by 8 points to 113 despite approaching financial problems. While reducing maize and soybean prices and high input costs may have depressed spirits, farmers’ outlook has improved due to fewer pessimistic forecasts and a decrease in those reporting worsening circumstances. The Farm Capital Investment Index’s rise indicates a cautious but absolute confidence among farmers.

It is worth highlighting farmers’ tenacity and adaptation in these tumultuous times. Despite the Farm Financial Performance Index dropping and persistent worries about commodity prices, their capacity to stay optimistic and explore capital improvements demonstrates their unwavering spirit. As we develop, we must examine the inventive tactics and steadfast determination that push farmers to weather economic downturns and maintain their critical role in agriculture.

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U.S. Recession Fears Tank Global Markets: What Dairy Farmers Need to Know

Find out how U.S. recession fears are shaking up global markets and what this means for your dairy farm. Ready for the changes? Keep reading!

Summary: Feeling the sting of the market madness? Fear of a U.S. recession has rocked global markets, hitting our dairy markets hard. The S&P 500 plummeted 2.6%, and CME blocks and barrels also saw price drops. But there’s some good news—grain futures like corn and soybeans held strong. Cheese production is down, while butter production is up compared to last year. Is your farm ready for these shifts? Don’t fret; we’re here to guide you through these uncertain times. Staying informed and agile is key. Plus, diversifying your income could open new doors.

  • U.S. recession fears have significantly impacted global markets and the dairy sector.
  • The S&P 500 experienced a notable drop of 2.6%, reflecting broader economic concerns.
  • CME blocks and barrels saw price decreases, affecting dairy farmers directly.
  • Grain futures like corn and soybeans remained strong, providing some financial relief.
  • Cheese production is down year-over-year, while butter production has increased.
  • Diversifying farm income can offer stability during market fluctuations.
  • Staying well-informed and adaptable is crucial in navigating uncertain economic times.

Have you ever felt like the world is spinning out of control, and you’re simply fighting to stay balanced? That’s very much what has happened in the financial markets lately. Fears of a U.S. recession have sent global markets into a tailspin. But what exactly does this imply for you and your dairy farm? Let us break it down together.

First, you may ask, ‘Why should I care about the stock market?’ That is an excellent question. Understanding and being aware of the stock market’s impact on your dairy farm are crucial. When the stock market falls, it may affect everything from milk prices to feed costs. So, stay with me, and we’ll go through these rough seas together.

“The S&P 500 fell 2.6% daily, hitting its lowest since 2022. The U.S. Dollar Index also plummeted, reaching eight-month lows, as crude oil prices tumbled. [Source: Marketnews.com]

Market IndicatorCurrent ValueChange
S&P 500-2.6%Lowest since 2022
U.S. Dollar Index8-month low 
Crude OilPlunged 
CME Block Cheese$1.84 per pound-$0.01
CME Barrel Cheese$1.91 per pound-$0.02
Class III Milk Futures (September)$19.72 per hundredweight-0.73
Nearby Corn$3.9075 per bushel+0.0425
August Soybeans$10.4425 per bushel+0.15

The Numbers Don’t Lie: Market Meltdown Explained

So, what’s the scoop? People fear a recession in the United States due to higher unemployment and slower hiring. This worry caused all major US market indexes to fall to their lowest levels since 2022. The S&P 500, for example, fell 2.6% in a single day [source: MarketWatch]. The U.S. Dollar Index fell to an eight-month low as crude oil prices plummeted amid Middle Eastern concerns. You may wonder, “Okay, but how does this affect my dairy farm?” Great question. When markets are uncertain, dairy prices might fall while feed and equipment expenses rise. The ripple effect may significantly impact your bottom line. Understanding these market conditions can help you anticipate and prepare for potential changes in your business.

Your dairy markets were not spared either. CME blocks dropped to $1.8400 per pound, down a penny, while barrels fell to $1.9100 per pound, losing two cents. Class III milk futures also fell, with September futures shedding 73 cents to $19.72 per hundredweight. Despite the dread and gloom, grain futures remained firm. Nearby corn jumped to $3.9075 per bushel, up $0.0425, and August soybeans rose to $10.4425, up 15 cents. This shows that during moments of market panic, various industries respond differently. Understanding these dynamics can help you make more informed decisions about your business.

Total cheese output in June fell to 1.161 billion pounds, a 1.4% decline from the previous year. On the other hand, butter output was 169.2 million pounds, a 2.8% increase over last year but a 17.3% decrease from a month earlier. So, what exactly does this imply for your dairy farm? It’s a time for adaptation and informed decision-making. Now is an excellent time to review your selling plans and watch grain prices. Markets are unpredictable, but your ability to remain educated and make strategic decisions may help you overcome the ups and downs.

Is Your Farm Ready for the Ripple Effect of a Global Market Meltdown?

Have you ever considered how global markets affect your day-to-day operations? Fears of a U.S. recession are causing rippling effects throughout the financial world, even on farms. Brace yourself. So, how does this affect you and your bottom line? Let us break it down.

First, let’s discuss gasoline pricing. As crude oil prices fall amid economic instability, you may soon see some respite at the gas pump. That seems fantastic, right? But don’t open the champagne just yet. Lower gasoline prices may signal more economic downturns, raising operating expenses in other sectors.

How about feeding costs? We aren’t just talking about a few additional cents here and there; feed pricing fluctuations may significantly influence your profits. Although the recent increase in soybean and maize prices may seem a good indication, remember that these mainstays can raise your input expenses.

Here are a few key elements you should keep an eye on: 

  • Fuel Prices: A short-term drop may save you some money now, but fluctuating prices can wreak havoc on your long-term planning.
  • Feed Costs: Rising prices can gnaw away at your profits. Planning and securing stable supply lines are crucial.
  • Supplies: Everything from fertilizers to maintenance materials may see price hikes. Budget adjustments might be needed.

“Dairy markets are feeling the heat from fears of the global recession. Staying informed and agile in your business decisions will be key to navigating these turbulent times.”

What’s the bottom line? Monitoring how market fluctuations affect your input costs might provide you an advantage in surviving the storm. Anticipate, plan, and adapt appropriately!

Have you ever Thought About Mixing Things Up on Your Farm to Boost Your Income? 

Have you ever considered changing things up on your farm to increase revenue? With the turbulent markets, now might be an excellent time to explore diversifying your income sources. Let’s talk about practical ideas to assist you in handling the economic storm.

Exploring value-added goods is an excellent place to start. Sure, you’re already producing milk, but how about going a step further? Have you thought of making cheese or yogurt? These products are frequently more expensive than raw milk and may help your dairy expand into new markets.

  • Cheese Production: Start small, maybe with some artisanal varieties. High-quality, locally-made cheese is always in demand.
  • Yogurt: It’s a versatile product that’s growing in popularity. You can target health-conscious consumers with organic or probiotic-rich options.

Another option to investigate is agritourism. It’s a fancy term, but it shouldn’t be complex. Consider arranging farm tours, petting zoos, or hosting farm-to-table meals—people like returning to nature and learning where their food originates.

Diversifying your revenue sources allows you to insulate yourself from market swings while bringing fresh life and excitement to your farm. Why not give it a shot?

The Bottom Line

So, what is the takeaway here? The worldwide market collapse generates turmoil, but not all doom and gloom. Monitor market trends and manufacturing reports. They can tell you what to anticipate.

And remember, you are not alone in this. Many dairy producers are in the same situation, navigating these difficult times. Stay knowledgeable and resilient, and continue doing what you do best: producing high-quality dairy products. Do you have any queries or require further information? Please do not hesitate to contact us. We’re all in it together.

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