Learn why EU dairy production is expected to drop due to policy changes and new trade agreements. Will cheese production continue to grow while other dairy products decline?

Milk output is predicted to decrease from 149.3 million metric tonnes in 2023 to 148.9 MMT this year. Dairy professionals must understand these changes and their ramifications. This minor decrease is more than simply a figure; it represents more profound industry shifts impacted by rules on cow numbers and milk production efficiency. These developments are not isolated; they are part of a more significant revolution fueled by legislative shifts, economic constraints, and environmental obligations. The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and EU Green Deal programs influence farm economics and production decisions.

Meanwhile, regulations such as the Autonomous Trade Regulation, enacted in reaction to geopolitical crises, can affect feed pricing and supply. Understanding these factors is essential for grasping opportunities in the face of change. Join us as we discuss these critical problems facing the dairy business.

The Intricate Weave of Policies Shaping the EU Dairy Sector 

The complex web of rules in the European Union is transforming the dairy industry. The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and the EU Green Deal are at the forefront of this transition. Revisions to the CAP, spurred by farmer protests in early 2024, are changing output incentives and operational standards. While these modifications improve sustainability, they also constrain dairy producers’ ability to keep or grow cow numbers. Parallel to the CAP, the EU Green Deal aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions directly affecting cattle production. The Green Deal’s provisions for reducing animal numbers to decrease methane emissions have resulted in smaller dairy herds. According to an impartial analysis, these climatic objectives would reduce cattle productivity by 10-15%. 2024 EU milk output is predicted to fall from 149.3 million metric tons by 2023 to 148.9 million. This emphasizes the difficulty of reconciling sustainability with the economic realities of dairy production. As the industry navigates these constraints, regulatory compliance and production sustainability will determine the future of EU dairy. This interaction between policy and production necessitates reconsidering how agricultural and environmental objectives might promote ecological and economic sustainability.

USDA GAIN Report Signals Minor Dip in EU Milk Production Amid Policy-Induced Shifts

According to the USDA GAIN research, EU milk production is expected to fall slightly, from 149.3 million metric tonnes in 2023 to 148.9 million metric tonnes in 2024, owing to regulations impacting cow numbers and milk yield. The research also anticipates a 0.3% decrease in industry usage consumption. While cheese output is forecast to increase by 0.6% to 10.62 million metric tons, other essential dairy products will likely fall. Butter is expected to decline by 2.1%, nonfat dry milk by 5.8%, and whole milk powder by 3.9%, underscoring the industry’s more significant issues and adjustments.

Cheese Production: The Cornerstone of the EU Dairy Processing Industry 

The EU dairy processing business relies heavily on cheese production to meet high consumer demand in Europe and beyond. Cheese, deeply rooted in European culinary traditions, is a household staple in various foods. Its extended shelf life compared to fresh dairy products offers logistical advantages for both local and international commerce. Cheese’s versatility, ranging from high-value aged sorts to mass-market variants, enables manufacturers to access a broader market segment, enhancing profitability.

Cheese manufacturing is consistent with the EU’s aims of sustainability and quality. The procedure allows for more effective milk consumption, and byproducts such as whey may be utilized in other industries, minimizing waste. Cheese manufacturing supports many SMEs throughout the EU, boosting rural employment and community development.

EU-27 cheese output is expected to reach 10.62 million metric tonnes (MMT) in 2024, up 0.6% from 2023. This rise not only indicates strong market demand but also underscores the importance of cheese in the EU dairy sector’s strategy. The predicted growth in cheese exports and domestic consumption provides confidence in the industry’s direction and its ability to meet market demands.

Declining Butter, NFDM, and WMP Production Amid Strategic Shifts 

Butter, nonfat dry milk (NFDM), and whole milk powder (WMP) output are expected to fall by 2.1%, 5.8%, and 3.9%, respectively, reflecting more significant developments in the EU dairy industry. These decreases indicate a purposeful shift toward cheese manufacturing, prompted by market needs and legislative constraints. Reduced butter output may impact local markets and exports, possibly raising prices. Similarly, reducing NFDM and WMP output may affect sectors like baking and confectionery, requiring supply chain modifications and altering global trade balances. These modifications may also reflect the EU Green Deal and amended Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) ideas. Prioritizing cheese production, which generates greater economic returns and corresponds to current consumer trends, is a practical technique. However, this move may jeopardize dairy industry sustainability initiatives, emphasizing the need for continual innovation. The reduction in production in these dairy divisions influences global economic dynamics, trade ties, and market competitiveness. Adapting to these developments necessitates balancing quality standards, environmental compliance, and shifting customer choices that prioritize animal care and sustainability.

A Promising Trajectory for Cheese Exports and Domestic Consumption 

Forecasts for the rest of 2024 indicate a robust trend for EU cheese exports and domestic consumption. This expansion is driven by strategic export efforts and shifting consumer tastes, with cheese remaining fundamental to the EU’s dairy industry. Domestically, cheese is becoming a household staple, reflecting more excellent animal welfare standards and sustainable techniques. On the export front, free trade agreements and market liberalization, particularly after Brexit, create new opportunities for EU dairy goods. Cheese output is expected to exceed 10.62 million metric tons, demonstrating the sector’s flexibility and relevance in supplying local and international demand. As cheese exports increase, the EU may improve its market position by employing quality assurance and international certifications. Increased demand is anticipated to encourage more innovation and efficiency in the business, keeping the EU dairy market competitive globally.

Striking a Balance: Navigating Strains and Sustainability in EU Dairy Policies 

Stringent rules under the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and the EU Green Deal provide considerable hurdles to the EU dairy industry. Due to these rules, dairy producers suffer financial constraints, which require expensive investments in sustainable techniques without corresponding financial assistance. The Green Deal’s decrease in greenhouse gas emissions necessitates costly modifications to agricultural operations, such as improved manure management systems, methane-reducing feed additives, and renewable energy investments. These financial pressures are exacerbated by market uncertainty, making farmers’ livelihoods more vulnerable.

Farmers claim that the CAP’s emphasis on lowering animal numbers to fulfill environmental standards jeopardizes the profitability of dairy farming, especially for small, family-run farms that need more resources to make required improvements. The emotional toll on these families, many of whom have been in business for decades, complicates the situation. Furthermore, there is a notion that these policies ignore regional agricultural traditions and the diverse effects of environmental rules between EU member states.

In reaction to major farmer protests in March 2024, the EU Commission has proposed CAP reforms that aim to strike a balance between environmental aims and economic viability. These include excellent financial help for sustainable activities, such as grants and low-interest loans for environmentally friendly technologies, and flexible objectives considering regional variances. The reformed CAP also aims to increase farmer involvement in policymaking, ensuring that future policies are anchored in reality. By addressing these challenges, the EU hopes to build a dairy industry that is robust, sustainable, and economically viable.

The EU Green Deal: A Pivotal Force Driving Environmental Transformation in the Dairy Sector 

The EU Green Deal seeks to align the European Union with ambitious climate targets, emphasizing changing the agriculture sector, particularly dairy. This effort focuses on lowering carbon footprints via severe laws and incentive schemes. According to external research, meeting these criteria might result in a 10-15% drop in livestock numbers. The larger context of sustainable agriculture needs a balance between economic vitality and environmental purity. The EU Green Deal requires the dairy industry to embrace more organic and pasture-based systems, shifting away from intensive feeding techniques. This change has implications for farms and supply networks, altering feed pricing and logistics. The EU’s commitment to mitigating climate change via the Green Deal presents difficulties and possibilities for the dairy sector, encouraging new practices and changing established production models.

The Double-Edged Sword of EU Free Trade Agreements: Navigating Dairy Market Dynamics

The EU’s free trade agreements are critical to the survival of the dairy industry, bringing both possibilities and problems. These agreements seek to increase the worldwide competitiveness of EU dairy products by creating new markets and lowering tariffs. However, they also need a delicate balance to safeguard indigenous companies from international competition, often resulting in strategic industry reforms.

These trade agreements prioritize quality assurance and respect for international standards. Upholding tight quality standards and acquiring worldwide certifications help EU dairy products retain a robust global image, allowing for easier market access. Furthermore, the EU’s dedication to environmental and sustainability requirements demonstrates its dual emphasis on economic development and environmental stewardship.

The Autonomous Trade Measures Regulation (ATM), implemented in reaction to geopolitical concerns such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, influences the dairy industry by influencing feed pricing and availability. This, in turn, affects EU dairy producers’ production costs and tactics. As trade agreements change, the EU dairy industry must remain agile and resilient, using logistical knowledge and environmental stewardship to manage obstacles and capitalize on global possibilities.

The Ripple Effect of ATM: Strategic Imperatives for EU Dairy in a Tenuous Global Landscape

The Autonomous Trade Measures Regulation (ATM), adopted in June 2022, was a direct reaction to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This program temporarily attempted to liberalize trade for a restricted group of Ukrainian goods. This strategy has significant repercussions for the EU dairy business, notably regarding feed pricing and availability. The entry of Ukrainian agricultural goods has the potential to stabilize or lower feed prices, easing the burden on EU dairy producers facing growing production costs and severe environmental rules like the EU Green Deal.

The cheaper feed may assist in alleviating economic constraints and encourage farmers to maintain or slightly improve the milk supply. However, this optimistic forecast is tempered by persisting geopolitical uncertainty that jeopardizes continuous trade flows from Ukraine. The end of the war and establishing stable trade channels are critical to retaining these advantages. Any interruption might cause feed costs to rise, exposing the EU dairy industry to external shocks.

While ATM regulation provides immediate benefits, its long-term effectiveness mainly depends on geopolitical events. EU policymakers and industry stakeholders must remain watchful and adaptive, ensuring that contingency measures are in place to safeguard the dairy sector from future risks while balancing economic and environmental objectives.

The Bottom Line

The changing environment of the EU dairy business demands strategic adaptation among laws, trade agreements, and sustainability programs. Looking forward, dairy farmers must strike a balance between economic and environmental aims. Policies such as the Common Agricultural Policy and the EU Green Deal cause a modest decrease in milk output. Cheese production continues to be strong, with predicted growth in both output and consumption. Butter, nonfat dry milk, and whole milk powder output are expected to fall, indicating strategic industry movements. Adjustments like the Autonomous Trade Measures Regulation underscore the need for strategic planning. The EU’s approach to free trade agreements must strike a balance between market competitiveness and environmental integrity. Technological advancements, strategic relationships, and sustainable practices can help the industry succeed. Dairy producers must stay adaptable, knowledgeable, and dedicated to sustainability. Strategic planning and effort will allow the sector to thrive in this disruptive period.

Key Takeaways:

• Milk Production Decline: EU milk production is forecasted to decrease from 149.3 million metric tonnes in 2023 to 148.9 mmt in 2024.
• Policy Impacts: The reduction is influenced by policies affecting cow numbers and overall milk production.
• USDA GAIN Report Insights: A 0.3% decrease in factory use consumption is anticipated in 2024.
• Cheese Production Growth: EU-27 cheese production is expected to reach 10.62 mmt in 2024, a 0.6% increase from 2023.
• Declining Production of Other Dairy Products: Butter, non-fat dry milk (NFDM), and whole milk powder (WMP) production are anticipated to decrease by 2.1%, 5.8%, and 3.9% respectively.
• Rising Cheese Demand: Both cheese exports and domestic consumption are forecasted to rise in 2024.
• Policy Challenges: The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and the EU Green Deal initiatives are influencing farmers’ production decisions.
• Trade Dynamics: The EU is engaging in multiple free trade agreements, including concessions on dairy, while the Autonomous Trade Measures Regulation (ATM) could impact feed prices and availability.

Summary:

Milk output is expected to decrease from 149.3 million metric tonnes in 2023 to 148.9 MMT this year due to industry shifts influenced by cow numbers and milk production efficiency rules. These developments are part of a larger revolution driven by legislative shifts, economic constraints, and environmental obligations. The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and the EU Green Deal programs influence farm economics and production decisions, with Regulations like the Autonomous Trade Regulation affecting feed pricing and supply. The EU dairy industry faces significant challenges due to strict rules under the CAP and the EU Green Deal, which require expensive investments in sustainable techniques without financial assistance. Farmers argue that these policies ignore regional agricultural traditions and the diverse effects of environmental rules between EU member states. The EU Commission proposed CAP reforms in March 2024 to strike a balance between environmental aims and economic viability.

Learn more:

• Rural Politicians Urge Faith in Farmers Amid Skepticism of Climate Goals
• EU Dairy Decline: 2024 Milk Production Forecasted to Drop 0.3% Amid Lower Cow Numbers and Rising Costs
• Rabobank Forecasts Northwest Europe’s Milk Production to Plunge by 20%