Hot weather, avian flu, and heifer shortages are pushing milk prices higher. Are you prepared to handle market shifts and boost your farm’s profits?
Summary: This detailed analysis explores the multifaceted challenges currently facing the dairy industry, primarily focusing on how weather conditions, diseases, and heifer shortages impact milk supplies and market prices. Despite high milk revenues and cheap feed, supply constraints drive prices. Cheese markets struggle to maintain high prices while demand for whey products soars. The article also examines how cooler weather might temporarily boost milk production, the impact of China’s increased dairy self-sufficiency on global milk powder markets, and recent downturns in cattle and feed markets. The USDA announced record-breaking milk prices in July, with Class III milk at $19.79 per cwt and Class IV milk at $21.31. However, the dairy industry faces challenges due to hot weather, avian influenza, and heifer shortages. High temperatures stress dairy cows, leading to lower milk output. Avian influenza and heifer shortages further strain the industry, causing significant regional price volatility.
- Record-breaking milk prices in July: Class III at $19.79 per cwt, Class IV at $21.31.
- High milk revenues and cheap feed juxtaposed with tight milk supplies.
- Significant regional price volatility due to weather conditions, avian influenza, and heifer shortages.
- Cheese markets struggle to sustain high prices, but whey product demand is soaring.
- Cooler weather is expected to boost milk production temporarily.
- China’s increased dairy self-sufficiency is impacting global milk powder markets.
- Recent declines in cattle and feed markets pose mixed outcomes for dairy producers.
The current status of the dairy business paints a complicated and intriguing picture for industry experts and newbies. Milk revenues are skyrocketing thanks to a powerful combination of low feed prices, seasonal weather patterns, and various external factors that have significantly tightened milk supplies. This detailed essay provides in-depth insights into these market dynamics, including current trends and future predictions, to assist you in navigating the complex world of dairy farming. Cheap feed rates, increased demand from processors and bottlers, and worldwide market effects, such as China’s changing dairy import patterns, will all be investigated to give meaningful insights for your dairy farming company.
| Month | Class III Milk Price ($ per cwt) | Class IV Milk Price ($ per cwt) |
|---|---|---|
| May 2024 | 19.87 | 21.08 |
| June 2024 | 19.79 | 21.02 |
| July 2024 | 19.79 | 21.31 |
USDA Announces Record-Breaking Milk Prices Amid Market Volatility
The USDA recently announced that the July Class III milk price will be $19.79 per cwt. Despite a tiny decrease of 8̼ from May, this number represents a significant rise of $6.02 compared to July 2023. The Class IV milk price increased to $21.31, up 23 percent from June and $3.05 more than July 2023. This considerable price increase reflects current market circumstances and potential future trends.
The futures market reinforces this optimistic forecast. Class IV futures have remained constant, with all contracts for 2024 priced at $21 or higher. Although there has been some recent volatility in Class III futures, with significant contracts such as September briefly hitting life-of-contract highs before falling somewhat, the overall trend remains strong. Contracts closed around 20% lower than the previous Friday, with September seeing a steeper loss of 98%. Despite this variation, the future of Class III milk pricing seems promising, with predictions for August through November quickly reaching the $20 barrier.
Surviving the Milk Crisis: How Weather, Disease, and Heifer Shortages Are Squeezing Your Business
Hot weather, avian influenza, and a scarcity of heifers all conspire to reduce milk supply. The high temperatures greatly stress dairy cows, resulting in lower milk output. Concurrently, avian influenza outbreaks have impacted the poultry sector, further burdening the cattle business and agricultural operations. Furthermore, a lack of heifers has curtailed the replacement rate of dairy cows, aggravating the drop in milk yield.
USDA’s Dairy Market News emphasized the ongoing supply restrictions in its weekly milk and dairy product market assessment. The agency said that milk production continues to seasonally lower, impacting the supply of fluid milk, butter, cheese, nonfat dry milk (NDM), dry whole milk, casein, dry buttermilk, and lactose. The major exception was whey protein concentrates (WPCs), where producers focused on WPC-80 and whey protein isolates. The industry faces substantial challenges sustaining enough milk supply, presumably keeping market conditions tight in the following months.
Cooler Weather Forecast Expected to Boost Milk Production While Structural Issues Persist
The milder weather forecast for later this year is expected to boost milk production, offering a glimmer of hope amidst persistent supply limitations. Lower temperatures have traditionally helped to maintain cow comfort and milk output, which merchants and processors throughout the nation are eagerly anticipating. However, it’s important to note that milk supply is projected to remain somewhat tight despite the approaching seasonal rise due to persistent structural difficulties in the sector.
Milk prices have varied significantly among regions, with the central area seeing the most volatility. This week, spot milk in this region traded from stable to $2 above Class III, the most significant premium since early August 2014. This premium reflects regional variations in supply and demand dynamics, with spot milk prices above the historical average in 48 of the previous 52 weeks. These geographical disparities highlight the dairy market’s complexity since localized events may considerably influence pricing and supply chain architecture.
Why Soaring Dairy Prices Might Backfire on Your Farm This Season
However, tighter supply may only drive up costs to a certain point. Excessively high prices necessarily reduce demand, restricting the market. Consumers, who are already stressed by regular price rises in restaurants and supermarkets, are vulnerable to more increases. As prices rise, consumers’ buying power declines, making it less likely that they will continue to pay more for dairy goods.
The recent significant drop in Wall Street has also influenced market sentiment. Investors ‘ fears about demand have grown against the background of massive financial losses. This genuine market concern reflects consumers’ rising reluctance to bear more extraordinary expenses in uncertain economic circumstances. The dairy business struggles to balance demand with increasing costs, exacerbated by such sentiments.
Cheddar Struggles While Whey Soars: A Dairy Diaries Update
| Month | Cheddar Price ($/lb) | Whey Price ($/lb) | Non-Fat Dry Milk Price ($/lb) |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2024 | $1.95 | $0.60 | $1.22 |
| June 2024 | $1.90 | $0.61 | $1.24 |
| July 2024 | $1.85 | $0.615 | $1.24 |
Spot Cheddar barrels had a brief victory in May and June, hitting the $2 mark, only to fail soon after that. This week’s volatility continued as they flirted above $2 before sliding to $1.93 per pound, indicating a 4˼ loss from last Friday. Cheddar cubes fell 8% at $1.85.
The whole dairy product industry had a distinct trend. CME spot whey prices reached their highest level since April 2022, completing the week at 61.5˼, a substantial 4.5ɼ rise. This rise may be linked to solid demand for Whey Protein Concentrates (WPCs) and Whey Protein Isolates (WPIs), exacerbated by maintenance downtimes at important whey production plants, further constraining supply.
Nonfat Dry Milk (NDM) rose 0.75 percent to $1.24, tying its highest price since February 2023. However, this market, too, has issues. Rapid expansion in Chinese milk production has decreased dependence on imported milk powder, with Rabobank reporting that China currently satisfies 85% of its dairy demand locally, up from 70% four years ago. This trend gradually reduces the global milk powder supply, resulting in further price hikes.
Butter prices have remained robust. After a slight loss, they recovered 1.5˼ to close at $3.105. Despite increasing output and more significant stock levels than the previous two years, customer worries over the forthcoming autumn baking season have maintained demand strong.
Despite the challenges, the dairy market demonstrates resilience. It reflects a combination of increasing pricing and supply restrictions caused by seasonal demand swings and global production dynamics. This complex ecosystem needs regular monitoring, but the market’s ability to adapt to changes should reassure dairy farmers about the industry’s resilience and potential for profitability.
Chinese Self-Sufficiency in Dairy Disrupts Global Milk Powder Markets
| Year | China’s Dairy Self-Sufficiency (%) | Milk Powder Imports (MT) |
|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 70% | 800,000 |
| 2020 | 75% | 750,000 |
| 2021 | 80% | 700,000 |
| 2022 | 82% | 650,000 |
| 2023 | 85% | 600,000 |
Understanding the global market dynamics is crucial in navigating the dairy business. As global milk powder supplies continue to deplete, resulting in an incremental increase in market pricing, it’s important to note that one essential aspect driving this trend is China’s tremendous expansion in milk output. Rabobank notes that China currently satisfies 85% of its dairy demand, up from 70% only four years ago. This shift towards domestic self-sufficiency has replaced significant milk powder imports, significantly impacting global supply dynamics.
As milk powder supplies continue to dwindle, the market remains volatile. Prices will likely rise if demand increases, reflecting the fundamental economic laws of supply and demand. According to Rabobank’s estimates, any revival in demand might drive prices higher, putting more pressure on global dairy markets. Dairy farmers and exporters must know these worldwide trends to successfully manage and prevent future market instability.
Shifting Feed and Cattle Markets: A Mixed Bag for Dairy Producers
| Month | Corn Price (per bushel) | Soybean Price (per bushel) | Soybean Meal Price (per ton) |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2024 | $4.15 | $10.45 | $330 |
| June 2024 | $4.10 | $10.35 | $328 |
| July 2024 | $4.03 | $10.29 | $325 |
Dairy farmers should be relieved and cautious as feed markets continue to decline. December corn prices fell below the psychologically critical $4 threshold for the first time in recent years, finishing at $4.0375 per bushel, down 6% for the week. This drop is linked to ideal growth circumstances, which include a healthy balance of sunlight and rain in prominent growing areas. In November, soybeans declined almost 20% to $10.29, but December soybean meal remained stable at $325 per ton.
Dairy farmers face a more complicated picture in the cattle market. While milk revenue over feed margins remain strong, aided by significant beef checks, recent cattle price trends are reason for worry. A big selloff on Wall Street has raised concerns about demand, compounded by persistent reports about the possible shutdown of a cow slaughterhouse in Nebraska. Such a shutdown would lower demand for fed cattle, moving negotiating leverage away from cattle feeders who want higher prices and toward cattle packers who wish to cut animal expenses.
Despite enjoying large margins for many years, cattle packers have lately begun losing money. This turnaround has dramatically dropped cattle prices this week, raising questions about the sustainability of present levels. Cattle values look to be headed for a downturn. While this drop in cattle prices may marginally reduce the value of dairy calves and cull cows, they’re still around record highs.
Mastering the Dairy Market: Proven Strategies for Weathering Price Volatility and Ensuring Farm Stability
Given the volatile nature of today’s dairy markets, sound risk management is critical. Futures contracts provide financial security by locking in prices for future milk sales. Furthermore, insurance such as the USDA’s Dairy Revenue Protection (DRP) and Livestock Gross Margin for Dairy (LGM-Dairy) protect against revenue losses and feed expense threats. Diversification is essential; expanding into other agricultural products or integrating on-farm processing may provide new income streams, such as specialty cheese manufacturing or farm-based retail. Farmers may use futures contracts, insurance, and diversification to secure income and establish long-term resilience.
The Bottom Line
As we negotiate the complexity of the dairy market, it is critical to recognize that present circumstances, typified by restricted supply and high prices, result from several converging events, including harsh weather, avian influenza, and heifer shortages. These problems have substantially impacted milk pricing, creating both possibilities and hazards for dairy producers. While some relief is expected from seasonal increases in milk production as more unusual weather arrives, the mismatch between expanding dairy processing capacity and milk production, combined with global shifts such as China’s increasing self-sufficiency, suggests that milk supplies will remain tight. Dairy producers must remain knowledgeable and adaptable, monitor feed and cattle markets, grasp structural supply challenges, and react to changing circumstances to maintain profitability. The capacity to negotiate this complex terrain will determine dairy farmers’ success; be watchful, keep educated, and accept change front.
USDA Proposes Return to ‘Higher-Of’ Method for Fluid Milk Pricing: What It Means for Dairy Farmers
Learn how USDA’s plan to bring back the ‘higher-of’ method for milk pricing might affect farmers. Will this change help dairy producers? Find out more.
The USDA plans to bring back the ‘higher-of’ pricing method for fluid milk, a move intended to modernize federal dairy policy based on a comprehensive 49-day hearing that evaluated numerous industry proposals. This method picks the higher price between Class III (cheese) and Class IV (butter and powder) milk, which could signify a notable shift for the dairy industry. Previously, the 2018 Farm Bill had replaced the ‘higher-of’ system with an ‘average-of’ pricing formula, averaging Class III and IV prices with an additional 74 cents. While switching back might benefit farmers, it also introduces risks like negative producer price differentials in 2020 and 2021. The USDA’s proposal seeks to mitigate these challenges and provide farmers financial gains amidst modern dairy economics’ complexities.
Understanding the Federal Milk Marketing Order (FMMO) System
The Federal Milk Marketing Order (FMMO) system, established in 1937, plays a crucial role in ensuring fair and competitive dairy pricing. It mandates minimum milk prices based on end use, providing price stability for dairy farmers and processors across the U.S. Each FMMO represents a distinct marketing area, coordinating pricing and sales practices.
The ‘higher-of’ pricing method for Class I (fluid) milk has long been integral to this system. It sets the Class I price using the higher Class III (cheese) or Class IV (butter and powder) price, offering a financial safeguard against market volatility. This method ensures dairy producers receive a fair price despite market fluctuations.
However, the 2018 Farm Bill introduced an ‘average-of’ formula, using the average of Class III and IV prices plus 74 cents. While aimed at modernizing milk pricing, this change exposed farmers to greater risk and reduced earnings in volatile periods like 2020 and 2021.
A Marathon Analysis: Unraveling Modern Dairy Policy over 49 Days in Indiana
The marathon hearing in Indiana highlighted the complexities of modern dairy policy. Spanning 49 days, from Aug. 23, 2023, to Jan. 30, it reviewed nearly two dozen industry proposals. This intensive process reflected the sophisticated and multifaceted Federal Milk Marketing Order system as stakeholders debated diverse views and intricate data to influence future milk pricing.
Decoding Dairy Dilemmas: The “Higher-Of” vs. “Average-Of” Pricing Methods
The “higher-of” and “average-of” pricing methods are central to understanding their impact on farmers’ incomes. The “higher-of” process, which uses the greater of the Class III (cheese) price or Class IV (butter and powder) price, has historically provided a safety net against dairy market fluctuations. This method ensured farmers got a better price, potentially safeguarding their income during volatile times. Yet, it increased the risk of negative producer price differentials, which reduced earnings in 2020 and 2021.
On the other hand, the “average-of” method, introduced by the 2018 Farm Bill, calculates the price as the average of Class III and IV prices plus 74 cents. While this seems balanced and predictable, it often fails to deliver the highest financial return when either Class III or IV prices exceed expectations. Farmers have noted that this method might not reflect their costs and economic challenges in volatile markets.
The “higher-of” method often offers better financial outcomes during favorable market conditions but brings increased uncertainty during unstable periods. Conversely, the “average-of” method offers stability but may miss optimal pricing opportunities. This debate within the dairy industry over the best formula to support farmers’ livelihoods continues. Thus, the USDA’s proposal to revert to the “higher-of” method invites mixed feelings among farmers, whose earnings and economic stability are closely tied to these pricing mechanisms.
Examining the Potential Implications of the USDA’s Return to the ‘Higher-Of’ Pricing Method
The USDA’s return to the ‘higher-of’ pricing method, while potentially beneficial, also presents some challenges that the industry needs to be aware of. This approach, favoring the higher Class III (cheese) or Class IV (butter and powder) prices, seems more beneficial than the ‘average-of’ formula. However, deeper insights indicate potential challenges that need to be carefully considered.
The ‘higher-of’ method usually leads to higher fluid milk prices but poses the risk of negative producer price differentials (PPDs). When the Class I price far exceeds the average of the underlying class prices, PPDs can become negative, as seen during the harsh economic times of 2020 and 2021, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Negative PPDs can hit farmers’ financial stability, making it harder to predict income and manage cash flows. This reflects the delicate balance between gaining higher milk prices now and ensuring long-term financial reliability.
The 24-month rolling adjuster for extended-shelf-life milk introduces further uncertainty. Its effect on milk pricing needs to be clarified, potentially causing fluctuating incomes for farmers in this segment.
In conclusion, while the ‘higher-of’ pricing method may offer immediate benefits, risks like negative PPDs and uncertain impacts on extended-shelf-life milk pricing demand careful consideration. Farmers must balance these factors with their financial strategies and long-term sustainability plans.
New Horizons for ESL Milk: Navigating the 24-Month Rolling Adjuster Amidst Market Uncertainties
Under the USDA’s new proposal, regular fluid milk will revert to the ‘higher-of’ pricing. In contrast, extended-shelf-life (ESL) milk will follow a different path. The plan introduces a 24-month rolling adjuster for ESL milk to stabilize prices for these longer-lasting products.
Yet, this change brings uncertainties. Laurie Fischer, CEO of the American Dairy Coalition, questions the impact on farmers. The 24-month adjuster is untested, making it difficult to foresee its effects amid fluctuating market conditions. ESL milk’s unique production and logistics further complicate predictions.
Critics warn that the lack of historical data makes it hard to judge whether this method will help or hurt farmers. There’s concern that it could create more price disparity between regular and ESL milk, potentially straining producers reliant on ESL products. While USDA aims to tailor pricing better, its success will hinge on adapting to real-world market dynamics.
Make Allowance Controversy: Balancing Processor Profitability and Farmer Finances
The USDA also plans to increase the make allowance, a credit to dairy processors to cover rising manufacturing costs. This adjustment aims to ensure processors are adequately compensated to sustain profitability and operational efficiency, which is expected to benefit the entire dairy supply chain.
However, this proposal has drawn substantial criticism. Laurie Fischer, CEO of the American Dairy Coalition, argues that the increased make allowance effectively reduces farmers’ milk checks, disadvantaging them financially.
Pivotal Adjustments and Economic Realignment in Dairy Pricing Formulas
The USDA’s proposal adjusts pricing formulas to match advancements in milk component production since 2000. This update ensures that farmers receive fair compensation for their contributions.
The proposal also revises Class I differential values for all counties to reflect current economic realities. This is essential for maintaining fair compensation for the higher costs of serving the fluid milk market. By reevaluating these differentials, the USDA aims to align the Federal Milk Marketing Order system with today’s economic landscape.
Recalibrating Cheese Pricing: Transition to 40-pound Cheddar Blocks Only
Another critical change in USDA’s proposal is the shift in the cheese pricing system. Monthly average cheese prices will now be based solely on 40-pound cheddar blocks instead of including 500-pound cheddar barrels. This aims to streamline the process and more accurately reflect market values, impacting various stakeholders in the dairy industry.
Initial Reactions from Industry Leaders: Balancing Optimism with Key Concerns
Initial reactions from crucial industry organizations reveal a mix of cautious optimism and significant concerns. The National Milk Producers Federation (NMPF) showed preliminary approval, noting that USDA’s proposal incorporates many of their requested changes. On the other hand, Laurie Fischer, CEO of the American Dairy Coalition, raised concerns about the make allowance updates and the impact of extended-shelf-life milk pricing, fearing it might hurt farmers’ earnings.
Structured Engagement: Navigating the 60-Day Comment Period and Ensuing Voting Procedure
To advance its proposal, USDA will open a 60-day public comment period, allowing stakeholders and the public to share insights, concerns, and support. This process ensures that diverse voices within the dairy industry are heard and considered. Once the comment period ends, USDA will review the feedback to gain a comprehensive understanding of industry perspectives, informing the finalization of the proposal.
Afterward, the USDA will decide based on the collected data and input. However, the process continues with a voting procedure where farmers pooled under each Federal Milk Marketing Order (FMMO) cast votes to approve or reject the proposed amendments. Each Federal Order, representing different regions, will vote individually.
This voting process is crucial, as it directly determines the outcome of the proposed changes. For adoption, a two-thirds majority approval within each Federal Order is required. Suppose a Federal Order fails to meet this threshold. In that case, USDA may terminate the order, leading to significant changes in how milk pricing is managed in that region. This democratic approach ensures that the final policies reflect majority support within the dairy farming community, aiming for fair and sustainable outcomes.
Regional Impacts: Navigating the Complex Landscape of FMMO System Changes
The proposed changes to the Federal Milk Marketing Order (FMMO) system are bound to impact various regions differently, given each Federal Order’s unique economic landscape. Federal Order 1, covering most New England, eastern New York, New Jersey, Delaware, southeastern Pennsylvania, and most of Maryland, may benefit from more favorable fluid milk pricing due to the higher-of method. With significant urban markets, this region could see advantages from updated Class I differential values addressing the increased costs of serving these areas.
On the other hand, Federal Order 33—encompassing western Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Indiana—might witness mixed outcomes. This area has substantial dairy manufacturing, especially in cheese and butter production, which could gain from the new cheese pricing method focusing on 40-pound cheddar blocks. However, the higher make allowance might stir controversy, potentially cutting farmers’ earnings despite adjustments for rising manufacturing costs.
The future remains uncertain for western New York and most of Pennsylvania’s mountain counties, which any Federal Order does not cover. These areas could feel indirect effects from the new proposals, particularly the revised pricing formulas and allowances, which could impact local milk processing and producer price differentials.
While the higher-of-pricing method may benefit farmers by securing better fluid milk prices, the regional impacts will hinge on each Federal Order’s specific economic activities and market structures. Stakeholders must examine the proposed changes closely to gauge their potential benefits and drawbacks.
The Bottom Line
The USDA’s push to reinstate the ‘higher-of’ pricing method for fluid milk marks a decisive moment for the dairy industry. The 49-day hearing in Indiana underscored the complexity of the Federal Milk Marketing Order (FMMO) System. Key aspects include reverting to the ‘higher-of’ pricing from the 2018 ‘average-of’ formula, new pricing for extended-shelf-life milk, and the debate over increased make allowances. Significant updates to pricing formulas and cheese pricing methodologies were also discussed.
The forthcoming vote on these changes is critical. With the power to reshape financial outcomes for dairy farmers and processors, each Federal Order needs two-thirds approval to implement these changes. Balancing modern dairy policy advancements with fair profits for all stakeholders is at the heart of this discourse.
Ultimately, these decisions will affect dairy practices’ economic landscape and sustainability nationwide. This vote is a pivotal moment in the evolution of the American dairy industry, demanding informed participation from all involved.
Key Takeaways:
Summary:
The USDA plans to reintroduce the ‘higher-of’ pricing method for fluid milk, a move aimed at modernizing federal dairy policy. This method, which selects the higher price between Class III and Class IV milk, could be a significant shift for the dairy industry. The 2018 Farm Bill replaced the ‘higher-of’ system with an ‘average-of’ formula, averaging Class III and IV prices plus an additional 74 cents. This change could benefit farmers but also introduce risks like negative producer price differentials (PPDs). The Federal Milk Marketing Order (FMMO) system ensures fair and competitive dairy pricing, and the ‘higher-of’ method usually leads to higher fluid milk prices but also poses the risk of negative producer price differentials (PPDs). Negative PPDs can impact farmers’ financial stability, making it harder to predict income and manage cash flows. The 24-month rolling adjuster for extended-shelf-life milk introduces further uncertainty, potentially causing fluctuating incomes for farmers. The USDA’s proposal to increase the make allowance, a credit to dairy processors, has been met with criticism from industry leaders. The USDA will open a 60-day public comment period to advance its proposal. The proposed changes to the FMMO system will impact various regions differently due to each Federal Order’s unique economic landscape.
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