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Global Dairy Trade Index Dips: Price Surge in Butter, Skim Milk Powder, and Anhydrous Milk Fat

Understand the 0.5% drop in the Global Dairy Trade index, even though butter and skim milk powder saw price increases. What does this mean for the dairy industry’s future?

anhydrous milk fat price

The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) index is a crucial barometer for dairy prices worldwide, reflecting supply and demand dynamics within the dairy industry. It’s significant as it guides stakeholders, from farmers to large dairy corporations, in making informed decisions. On Tuesday, the GDT index experienced a slight dip, falling by 0.5% during the trading session.

ProductPrice (per metric ton)Change (%)
Butter$7,350+6.2%
Lactose$801+1.9%
Skim Milk Powder$2,766+0.7%
Cheddar Cheese$4,205-1.0%
Anhydrous Milk Fat$7,317+1.2%
Whole Milk Powder$3,394-2.5%

The latest trading session saw mixed performances across different dairy products. Specifically, the GDT index fell 0.5%, indicating a slight overall decline. While prices were up for butter, lactose, and skim milk powder, this positive trend was counterbalanced by decreases in anhydrous milk fat, Cheddar cheese, and whole milk powder. Additionally, buttermilk powder and Mozzarella cheese were not traded during this session.

Butter saw a substantial increase, climbing 6.2% to $7,350 per metric ton, translating to $3.33 per pound. Lactose experienced a rise of 1.9%, reaching $801 per metric ton, or $0.36 per pound. Skim milk powder also went up by 0.7%, priced at $2,766 per metric ton, or $1.25 per pound. 

Conversely, anhydrous milk fat fell 2.5% to $7,317 per metric ton, or $3.31 per pound. Cheddar cheese decreased by 1% to $4,205 per metric ton, equivalent to $1.90 per pound. Whole milk powder dropped 1.7% to $3,394 per metric ton, or $1.53 per pound.

Interestingly, both buttermilk powder and Mozzarella cheese were notably absent from Tuesday’s trading session. This lack of availability could potentially tighten supply chains, leading to increased prices for these products in future sessions. With fewer items on offer, winning bidders might have concentrated their purchasing power on the other available products, slightly shifting market dynamics. Keeping an eye on future sessions where these products are reintroduced could provide valuable insights into their influence on overall market trends.

This session saw robust activity, with 106 winning bidders engaging in 21 rounds of competitive bidding. Collectively, these participants procured an impressive 16,787 metric tons of dairy products. Such high levels of participation demonstrate strong demand, despite the slight decline in the overall Global Dairy Trade index.

Let’s dive into the specifics of the pricing changes for each product: 

Butter: Butter prices saw a significant increase of 6.2%, rising to $7,350 per metric ton, or $3.33 per pound. This notable rise indicates a strong demand for butter on the market. 

Lactose: Lactose experienced a modest increase of 1.9%, bringing the price to $801 per metric ton, or $0.36 per pound. This reflects a steady interest in lactose from buyers. 

Skim Milk Powder: This product observed a healthy upward trend of 3.0%, with prices reaching $2,766 per metric ton, or $1.25 per pound. The rise in skim milk powder prices showcases its growing demand. 

Cheddar Cheese: Despite other product price increases, Cheddar cheese saw a slight decline of 1%, dropping to $4,205 per metric ton, or $1.90 per pound. This minor dip could suggest a fluctuation in market preference or supply. 

Anhydrous Milk Fat: This commodity reported a small bump of 0.9% in its pricing, now at $7,317 per metric ton, or $3.31 per pound. The marginal increase points to a consistent demand for anhydrous milk fat. 

Whole Milk Powder: Whole milk powder prices fell by 1.7%, decreasing to $3,394 per metric ton, or $1.53 per pound. The decline could indicate a shift in buyer preference or market dynamics. 

These variances in product pricing highlight the dynamic nature of the global dairy market, influenced by fluctuating supply and demand factors.

In summary, the Global Dairy Trade index took a slight dip of 0.5%, reflecting a mixed bag of price changes across various dairy products. Notably, butter saw a significant increase of 6.2%, while Cheddar cheese and whole milk powder experienced declines of 1% and 2.5%, respectively. These fluctuating prices underscore the dynamic and often unpredictable nature of the dairy market

Looking ahead, these changes may signal a period of adjustment within the global dairy market. The rise in prices for products like butter and anhydrous milk fat suggests a strong demand in specific segments, whereas the drop in whole milk powder and Cheddar cheese prices could indicate potential oversupply or shifting consumer preferences. As market participants continue to navigate these fluctuations, staying informed and adaptable will be key to leveraging opportunities and mitigating risks.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Global Dairy Trade index dropped by 0.5% in the latest trading session.
  • Butter, lactose, and skim milk powder prices increased.
  • Prices fell for anhydrous milk fat, Cheddar cheese, and whole milk powder.
  • Buttermilk powder and Mozzarella cheese were not available in this session.
  • 106 winning bidders purchased a total of 16,787 metric tons of dairy products.
  • Price highlights include butter at $7,350 per metric ton and Cheddar cheese at $4,205 per metric ton.

Summary:

The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) index fell by 0.5% during the trading session, but butter prices increased by 6.2% to $7,350 per metric ton. Lactose prices rose by 1.9% to $801 per metric ton, skim milk powder prices rose by 0.7% to $2,766 per metric ton, anhydrous milk fat prices fell by 2.5% to $7,317 per metric ton, cheddar cheese prices decreased by 1% to $4,205 per metric ton, and whole milk powder prices dropped by 1.7% to $3,394 per metric ton. The absence of buttermilk powder and Mozzarella cheese from Tuesday’s trading session may tighten supply chains and lead to increased prices in future sessions.

Butter Prices Surge and Plummet: A Wild Week in Dairy Markets

Discover the rollercoaster ride of butter prices this week. Why did they surge and then plummet? Dive into the latest trends and market insights in dairy.

Get ready for a wild ride in the dairy marketButter prices hit a spring high last Friday but plunged early this week, causing traders and buyers to wonder if such price jumps are sustainable. 

“Butter values plunged early this week after hitting a new high last Friday. Traders spent the long weekend debating if prices should surpass previous years when today’s production, imports, and stocks are all higher than in 2022 and 2023,” noted market analysts. 

This butter price rollercoaster impacts the broader dairy industry. From cheese to whole milk powder and whey, these price shifts affect other dairy products. In this article, we explore the latest trends and key factors shaping the dairy market’s present and future.

Dairy ProductAvg PriceQuantity Traded (4 wk Trend)
Butter$3.02449
Cheese Blocks$1.823114
Cheese Barrels$1.95508
Non-Fat Dry Milk$1.16759
Whey$0.403111

Butter Prices Tumble After New Spring High, Sending Shockwaves Through Dairy Market

After notching a new spring high last Friday, butter values plunged early this week. Buyers, driven by fears of tighter supplies and higher fall prices, initially pushed the market to new heights. However, despite strong domestic consumption and increased international demand, the current production, imports, and stocks are higher than in previous years. 

The anticipated spring flush in milk production failed to alleviate supply chain issues, adding to market volatility. Traders spent the long weekend debating whether current prices justified the recent highs. This resulted in a steep selloff on Tuesday morning as traders rushed to offload holdings, causing a brief but sharp decline in butter prices.

By Thursday, butter buyers showed renewed enthusiasm, aiming to avoid higher costs in the fall. Their robust willingness to pay $3 or more per pound lifted spot butter prices close to last Friday’s peak. Ultimately, spot butter closed the week at $3.09, reflecting strategic foresight in securing their dairy needs early.

Cheese Market Adjusts as Domestic Demand and Export Dynamics Shape Pricing Trends

The cheese market faced a notable pullback this week, driven by shifts in domestic demand and export dynamics. Retailers have boosted domestic interest by promoting lower-priced cheese bought earlier in the year, moving significant volumes. However, the balancing act between competitive pricing and strong export sales remains delicate. 

Early 2024 saw strong export activity, especially in February and March, helping to keep inventories in check. Yet, fears are growing that $2 cheese could deter future international buyers, pushing the market to find a sustainable and fluid price point. As a result, cheese is expected to stay above January through April levels, despite recent corrections. 

This week, CME spot Cheddar blocks fell 6 cents to $1.81, and barrels dropped 4 cents to $1.94, marking the market’s ongoing efforts to effectively balance supply and demand.

Mixed Results at Global Dairy Trade Pulse Auction Highlight Market Divergence

The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) Pulse auction showed mixed results. Whole milk powder (WMP) prices climbed to their highest since October 2022. Meanwhile, skim milk powder (SMP) prices dipped after last week’s gains. This highlights differing trends within the dairy sector.

Nonfat Dry Milk Prices Show Slight Dip Amid Bullish Futures Market Projections

This week, nonfat dry milk (NDM) prices dipped slightly, with CME spot NDM falling 0.75ȼ to $1.1675. Futures, however, remain bullish. June contracts hover around $1.17, but fourth-quarter futures trade in the mid-$1.20s, targeting $1.30 by early 2025. The market anticipates tighter milk supplies and reduced output, awaiting a demand-driven rally to intensify the upward trend.

Whey Market Defies Dairy Commodity Downtrend with Robust Performance and Rising Prices

Amidst a general decline in dairy commodities, the whey market has shown striking resilience. CME spot whey powder rose by 1.5ȼ this week to 41.5ȼ, hitting a two-month high. This surge is driven by robust domestic demand for high-protein whey products. Processors are focusing on these segments, reducing whey for drying and tightening supply, thereby lifting prices across the whey market.

Class IV and Class III Futures Reflect Dynamic Dairy Market Shifts and Supply Concerns

This week saw noticeable shifts in Class IV and Class III futures, driven by changes in the cheese market and broader dairy supply concerns. Class IV futures dropped, with most contracts ending about 60ȼ lower since last Friday, putting May and June contracts in the high $20s per cwt, and July to December above $21 per cwt. 

In contrast, Class III futures showed mixed results. The June Class III fell by 41ȼ to $19.47 per cwt, still an improvement for dairy producers after months of low revenues. Meanwhile, July through October contracts increased by 20 to 60ȼ, indicating market expectations for $20 milk. 

Cheese market trends are key here. Domestic demand is up, driven by retail promotions, and exports remain strong, keeping inventories stable. Yet, there’s concern about maintaining export momentum with potential $2 cheese prices. Finding a balanced price to keep products moving is critical. 

For dairy producers, these developments offer cautious optimism. Near-term futures show slight adjustments, but expectations of tighter milk supplies and higher cheese demand provide a promising outlook. The rise in Class III contracts suggests a favorable environment, backed by strong cheese demand and strategic pricing for exports.

Spring Flush and Seasonal Dynamics Raise Concerns Over Future Milk Supply Tightness

The spring flush, holiday weekend, and drop-off in school milk orders have resulted in ample milk for processors. However, higher prices signal concerns about potential rapid supply tightening. According to USDA’s Dairy Market News, milk was spread thin last summer with more tankers moving south, and a similar situation is expected in summer 2024, although overall milk access has been lighter this year than in the first half of 2023. This suggests that immediate milk abundance might be quickly offset by long-term supply constraints.

Bird Flu, Heifer Shortage, and Herd Dynamics Pose Multifaceted Challenges for 2024 Milk Production

The dairy industry is grappling with several critical issues that could disrupt milk production for the rest of the year. Key among these is the persistent bird flu, which continues to affect herds in major milk-producing states like Idaho and Michigan and is now spreading into the Northern Plains. 

Compounding the problem is the ongoing heifer shortage. Dairy producers are finding it increasingly difficult to keep their barns and bulk tanks full due to limited availability of replacement heifers. The high demand has driven up prices, leading some producers to sell any extra heifers they have, though this only temporarily eases the shortage. 

At the same time, dairy cow slaughter volumes have plummeted as producers retain low-production milk cows to maintain or grow herd sizes. While this strategy aims to increase milk output, it involves keeping less efficient cows longer, which could hinder overall growth. These challenges together create an uncertain outlook for milk production in the months ahead.

Farmers Navigate Weather Challenges to Meet Corn Planting Goals Amid Future Market Volatility

Intermittent sunshine gave farmers just enough time to catch up with the average corn planting pace. As they dodge showers and storms, some in fringe areas may switch crops, while others might opt for prevented planting insurance rather than risk fields for sub-$5 corn. The trade remains cautious, gauging the wet spring’s impact on yield and acreage. However, the moisture might be welcome as we approach a potentially hot, dry La Niña summer. Consequently, July corn futures dropped nearly 20ȼ to $4.46 per bushel, and soybean meal plummeted $21 to $364.70 per ton.

The Bottom Line

This week, the dairy market experienced significant shifts, with butter prices dropping sharply before partially recovering, reflecting ongoing volatility. Cheese prices also declined, although strong domestic demand and exports helped stabilize the market. Interestingly, whey prices bucked the trend, driven by robust demand for high-protein products. 

Looking forward, the dairy market is set for continued fluctuations. The spring flush and current weather conditions are creating short-term abundance, but concerns over milk supply tightness are already influencing pricing. The combined effects of bird flu, heifer shortages, and keeping lower-yield cows highlight the challenges for dairy producers. As these issues evolve, they will shape market dynamics throughout 2024. Stakeholders must remain vigilant and adaptable, as milk production constraints and demand pressures could test the market’s resilience.

Key Takeaways:

  • Butter prices experienced a sharp decline early in the week, following a new spring high last Friday, leading to market reassessment and volatility.
  • Cheese prices retreated due to shifts in domestic demand and concerns over the sustainability of export sales at higher price points.
  • Mixed results at the Global Dairy Trade Pulse auction highlighted market divergence, with whole milk powder values increasing and skim milk powder prices retreating.
  • Despite a slight dip in nonfat dry milk prices, futures market projections remain bullish, anticipating a rise in values due to tighter milk supplies.
  • The whey market outperformed other dairy commodities, showing robust demand and rising prices amidst an industry downtrend.
  • Class IV and Class III futures markets reflected the dynamic dairy market shifts, with fluctuations in pricing due to current supply concerns.
  • Seasonal dynamics and spring flush raised concerns over future milk supplies, as high temperatures and declining school orders impact availability.
  • Challenges such as the bird flu and heifer shortage continue to pressure 2024 milk production, complicating the supply chain and market equilibrium.
  • Farmers navigated adverse weather conditions to meet corn planting goals, reflecting broader agricultural market volatility and future crop yields’ uncertainty.
  • Overall, dairy markets faced significant price fluctuations and supply chain challenges, underlining the importance of strategic planning and market adaptation.

Summary: Butter prices reached a new spring high last Friday, but plummeted early this week, raising concerns about the sustainability of these prices. Current production, imports, and stocks are higher than in 2022 and 2023, posing challenges for dairy producers. The anticipated spring flush in milk production failed to alleviate supply chain issues, adding to market volatility. Butter buyers showed renewed enthusiasm to avoid higher costs in the fall. Spot butter closed the week at $3.09, reflecting strategic foresight in securing dairy needs early. The cheese market faced a pullback this week due to shifts in domestic demand and export dynamics. Retailers promoted lower-priced cheese bought earlier in the year, moving significant volumes. Balancing competitive pricing and strong export sales remains delicate, and fears that $2 cheese could deter future international buyers push the market to find a sustainable price point.

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