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The Death of Small US Dairy Farms: An Autopsy Report

Uncover the factors driving the decline of small US dairy farms, examine the resulting economic and environmental repercussions, and consider actionable policy strategies for their resurgence.

Consider an urgent problem in rural America, akin to a crime scene that demands immediate attention. The victims in this case are the small dairy farms, historically the backbone of their communities, now struggling against the dominance of larger businesses. As investigators, we meticulously examine the dramatic shifts in the U.S. dairy business over the past few decades. Let’s delve into the reasons, effects, and remedies for the urgent revival of small dairy farms.

The downturn not only affects farmers but also tears at the fabric of rural America, impacting the entire community. We’ll delve into the core reasons, analyze the economic and environmental consequences, and strongly advocate for legislative changes to ensure a more sustainable future for small dairy farms. We want to underscore the critical efforts needed to revitalize and maintain small dairy farms nationwide for the sake of these communities.

YearNumber of Small DairiesNumber of Large DairiesAverage Cows per Small DairyAverage Cows per Large Dairy
199771,0325,19850500
200751,0127,48070700
201727,41510,053100900
202224,08212,0221201,000

Economic and Environmental Strains: The Twin Burdens of Small Dairy Farms

Small dairy farmers confront complex economic challenges that are only getting worse. Since 1998, these farms have generated cumulative 10-year net returns of less than -$10/cwt, indicating ongoing financial duress. In 2023, volatile market circumstances exacerbated these issues, including a significant market drop and increased feed and fuel expenses. Small dairies are struggling to thrive, and many are leaving the business.

Meanwhile, the expansion of large-scale dairy farms has severe environmental repercussions. Mega-dairies, with herds ranging from 1,000 to 25,000 cows, currently provide more than 70% of US milk. Large farms benefit from economies of scale but contribute to climate change by increasing methane emissions. They also create significant air and water pollution, endangering the health of adjacent residents and poisoning local water sources.

The Relentless Decline of Family-Scale Farms: Economic Hardships in the US Dairy Industry

Small farms struggle financially with growing production costs that outpace milk prices. The typical American dairy farm has only been profitable twice in the previous two decades, leaving small-scale farmers in heavy debt.

Small farmers are experiencing increased production costs that surpass milk prices. Many small-scale farmers are in debt, barely making two profits in the past two decades. Sarah Lloyd, a Wisconsin dairy farmer, said, “The consolidation of the dairy industry has siphoned life out of rural America.” Small farms suffer financial collapse, resulting in mounting debts, bankruptcies, and farmer suicides. The socioeconomic fabric of rural communities deteriorates, emphasizing the necessity for a significant rethink of dairy policy.

As small farms falter, they risk financial devastation, rising debts, bankruptcies, and farmer suicides. The socioeconomic fabric of rural communities deteriorates, emphasizing the critical need for a complete revision of dairy policy to protect small-scale farmers against monopolistic corporations.

YearTotal Dairy FarmsMilk Production (Billion Pounds)Average Operating Margin (%)Dairy Exports (Billion USD)
200370,3751703%0.77
200862,5001892%3.0
201349,3312011.5%5.5
201837,4682181%5.6
202236,1042200.5%6.3

The Monopolistic Squeeze: How Dairy Cooperatives Are Reshaping the Industry

The growing concentration of the dairy business, with Dairy Farmers of America (DFA), Land O’Lakes, and California Dairies owning 83% of milk sales, has marginalized small-scale farms, driving them to the edge. Rising production costs and low milk prices put small dairy producers at a competitive disadvantage, undermining the sector’s variety and resilience. Family farms must choose whether to develop or abandon an enterprise passed down through generations.

Dairy cooperatives primarily cater to larger dairies, reinforcing the consolidation cycle and exacerbating challenges for smaller operations. These cooperatives can negotiate better prices and establish strong supply chains that benefit large-scale producers, but smaller farms lack the volume to leverage the same benefits. This discrepancy manifests in various ways: 

  • Bulk Pricing Models: Cooperatives offer pricing models favoring high-volume producers, making it hard for smaller farms to compete.
  • Priority Access: Larger dairies enjoy priority access to cooperative resources, leaving smaller farms with limited support.
  • Logistical Support: Infrastructure built by cooperatives caters to large producers, providing inadequate support for smaller farms.
  • Market Influence: Cooperatives’ market influence shapes industry policies to the advantage of larger operations, sidelining smaller competitors.

This emphasis on bigger dairies feeds a vicious cycle in which small farmers struggle to stay in business. Optimized resource arrangements for large-scale production hurt small farmers’ livelihoods and the fabric of rural communities that rely on them.

From Stability to Strain: How 2000s Policy Shifts Unraveled the US Dairy Industry

In the early 2000s, U.S. dairy policy experienced significant changes: 

  • End of Dairy Price Supports: These supports once provided a safety net for small farms. Their removal led to financial instability.
  • End of Grain Supply Management: Previously, policies kept feed prices stable. Their discontinuation increased feed costs, squeezing small farms’ profit margins.
  • Export-Focused Policies: Aimed to integrate U.S. dairy products into the global market, favoring large-scale, industrial farms.
  • Economies of Scale: Larger farms could produce milk cheaper, putting small farms at a competitive disadvantage.

These developments weakened family-owned dairies, compelling them to expand or leave the sector. The new laws hastened the demise of small farms, driving the US dairy sector toward large-scale, export-oriented production.

Strategic Policy Solutions: A Multifaceted Approach to Revitalize Small Dairy Farms

Experts support strategic initiatives to fight the demise of small dairy farmers. Implementing a federal supply management scheme may help to balance supply and demand while preventing export market flooding. Legislative efforts to block agricultural mergers and abolish industrial farms by 2040 are critical. Restoring supply management and revamping the rural safety net in the following agricultural Bill is vital. Setting mandatory objectives for reducing greenhouse gas and methane emissions will help to reduce environmental damage. Requiring dairy corporations to disclose emissions and meet science-based objectives would increase accountability while revitalizing local dairy farms and ensuring their economic and ecological viability.

In addition to legislation, education, and assistance activities are critical for helping small dairy producers adapt to changing market circumstances. Farmers might benefit from programs that teach them financial literacy and business management skills. Furthermore, giving grants and low-interest loans will provide crucial financial assistance, focusing on improving agricultural infrastructure, promoting sustainable practices, and innovating technologies to reduce efficiency and environmental effects.

Community support and consumer awareness are essential. Promoting locally produced dairy products and educating customers about the advantages of small farms may increase demand and provide a competitive advantage. Establishing farmer cooperatives may give greater market access, reduced expenses, and more substantial bargaining power versus more prominent corporations.

Promoting research and development in sustainable dairy farming is vital. This involves establishing feed techniques to minimize methane emissions, investigating alternative energy, and strengthening resistance to climate change. Public-private collaborations may spur innovation, allowing farmers to remain profitable while adjusting to environmental problems.

Mental health and well-being services for farmers and their families must not be disregarded. The stressors of farming may substantially influence personal health, so guaranteeing access to mental health services and establishing community support networks is essential.

To resuscitate and maintain small dairy farms, a multidimensional strategy that includes regulatory change, financial assistance, community participation, and sustainable practices is required. This comprehensive approach provides a roadmap to preserving a crucial agricultural environment component while encouraging a more resilient and responsible dairy business.

The Bottom Line

The decline of small dairy farms in the United States is being pushed by constant economic pressures and legislative choices that favor large-scale enterprises. These dynamics have significantly weakened the profitability of family-scale farms, necessitating major regulatory adjustments. Reforms should attempt to stabilize the market and provide a more fair and sustainable future for the dairy sector. This paper demonstrates that the demise of small US dairy farms is not a natural development but rather a significant result of purposeful decisions and institutional biases. Without immediate legislative reforms, mega-dairies will dominate US agriculture, threatening small farmers, the environment, and rural communities. Revitalizing small dairy farms would need a comprehensive strategy addressing the underlying reasons for their decline. This research emphasizes the critical need for focused initiatives to restore America’s dairy legacy.

Key Takeaways:

  • The US dairy industry has seen significant consolidation, with small dairy farms declining sharply while large-scale operations dominate the market.
  • Financial pressures, driven by prolonged negative net returns and rising input costs, have severely affected small dairy farms.
  • Changing consumer preferences, particularly among younger generations, have led to decreased dairy milk consumption and increased demand for plant-based alternatives.
  • The shift towards larger dairy operations has exacerbated environmental issues, including higher methane emissions and pollution, adversely affecting local communities.
  • Current federal policies, while providing some support, are often inadequate to address the unique challenges faced by small dairy farms.
  • Proposed policy solutions include implementing federal supply management, banning factory farms, enhancing the farm safety net, and setting binding emissions targets for the agriculture sector.
  • Comprehensive policy reforms are essential for creating a sustainable and equitable dairy industry, benefiting both small farmers and the environment.

Summary:

Small dairy farmers in the US face significant economic and environmental challenges, with a cumulative 10-year net return of less than -$10/cwt since 1998. In 2023, volatile market circumstances exacerbated these issues, leading to a significant market drop and increased feed and fuel expenses. Large-scale dairy farms, which provide over 70% of US milk, contribute to climate change by increasing methane emissions and creating significant air and water pollution. Small farms struggle financially with growing production costs that outpace milk prices, leaving them in heavy debt. The socioeconomic fabric of rural communities deteriorates, emphasizing the need for a complete revision of dairy policy to protect small-scale farmers against monopolistic corporations. Dairy cooperatives primarily cater to larger dairies, reinforcing the consolidation cycle and exacerbating challenges for smaller operations. Strategic policy solutions include implementing a federal supply management scheme, legislative efforts to block agricultural mergers and abolish industrial farms by 2040, restoring supply management and revamping the rural safety net, setting mandatory objectives for reducing greenhouse gas and methane emissions, requiring dairy corporations to disclose emissions and meet science-based objectives, education, and community support.

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Is 2024 Shaping Up to Be a Disappointing Year for Dairy Exports and Milk Yields?

Are dairy exports and milk production set for another uninspiring year in 2024? Discover the trends and expert insights shaping the industry’s future.

Bart Peer, voeren van vet aan melkvee in Beuningen t.b.v. Misset/Boerderij Opdrachtnummer: 416573 Kostenplaats 06003 Fotograaf: Van Assendelft Fotografie

The dairy industry‘s backbone has been its milk yields and exports, critical for regional economies and farmers’ livelihoods. While demand for high-quality dairy products boosts growth and revenue, the sector faces significant changes. 

The U.S. dairy industry is currently at a crossroads. Year-over-year milk production declined by 1.3% in February 2024. The U.S. milking cowherd has shrunk monthly since June 2023, with limited heifer availability adding to the woes. Despite some resilience in milk component production from December to February, larger challenges overshadow these gains. 

“It’s hard to imagine milk production making material improvements with cow numbers down year-over-year, heifers in short supply, and rough economics in several regions,” says Phil Plourd, president of Ever.Ag Insight. 

With fewer cows, economic stress, and stagnant heifer replacements, 2024 may bring more uninspiring results. Consequently, the dairy sector‘s growth and sustainability metrics could fall short, impacting potential recovery and expansion.

Understanding The Decline: Year-Over-Year Milk Production Trends

Notably, the USDA Milk Production Report highlights a 2% year-over-year decline across 24 central states in April. This pattern aligns with nationwide trends, reflecting more profound systemic challenges in the U.S. dairy sector. Although May 2024 saw a slight increase in per-cow output, total production fell marginally. 

Several key points arise from these reports. The persistent reduction in herd size contrasts with improved per-cow productivity, which fails to offset the decline fully. The milking cow population has dropped to 8.89 million head, a year-over-year reduction of 55,000. 

Regional disparities add complexity. Some areas sustain or boost production slightly, but places like New Mexico saw a drastic 17.3% decline, exposing regional vulnerabilities. 

The economic landscape, marked by falling prices and moderate shipment volume growth, also dampens producers’ recovery prospects. Thus, closely monitoring economic conditions will be crucial for predicting future milk production trends.

YearMilk Production Volume (in billion lbs)Year-Over-Year Change (%)
2020223.2+2.2%
2021225.6+1.1%
2022223.5-0.9%
2023220.0-1.6%

Analyzing Annual Shifts in Dairy Export Patterns

The past year has marked significant changes in dairy export trends, with volume and value experiencing notable fluctuations. Although 2023 saw U.S. dairy exports total $8.11 billion, this represented a 16% decrease from the record year of 2022, highlighting the volatility of global dairy markets

One primary factor in these shifts is the decline in domestic milk production, directly impacting export volumes. Despite some milk and milk component production growth from December to February, the overall trend remains challenging. 

Volatile agricultural markets and external factors like El Niño weather patterns have further complicated global supply chains. Additionally, reductions in farmgate milk prices and persistent on-farm inflation continue to strain U.S. dairy farms.

YearTotal Export Value (in billion USD)Percentage Change from Previous YearKey Factors
20206.2+5%Stable milk prices, moderate global demand
20217.0+13%Increased global demand, favorable trade agreements
20229.7+19%High global demand, favorable prices, export market expansion
20238.11-16%Weakened global demand, eased prices
2024 (Forecast)8.5+5%Slow recovery in demand, stable prices

Key Determinants in Milk Production Outcomes

Environmental challenges like droughts and extreme weather events have become significant obstacles to stable milk yields. These conditions can severely affect forage quality and availability, impacting the quantity and quality of milk from dairy cows. For instance, droughts reduce grazing land and drive up feed costs, further straining production budgets. 

Rising production costs have also hindered farmers’ ability to invest in essential technologies. Modern dairy farming requires advanced milking systems, automated feeding mechanisms, and enhanced herd management software. Yet, persistent economic pressures and on-farm inflation make such investments challenging, directly affecting milk yields by reducing farm efficiency. 

Labor shortages continue to impede dairy operations. The industry relies on a consistent and skilled workforce. Still, the COVID-19 pandemic and immigration policy uncertainties have left many farms understaffed. This labor scarcity delays essential operations and hinders the implementation of quality control measures, impacting overall milk production.

Key Influencers on Dairy Export Performance

Trade tensions continue to cloud the outlook for U.S. dairy exports. Tariffs and trade barriers stemming from geopolitical conflicts create uncertainty and hinder competitiveness in global markets. These economic disruptions inflate costs and squeeze profit margins for U.S. dairy farmers

Additionally, changing consumer preferences are shifting demand away from traditional dairy products to plant-based alternatives, driven by health and environmental concerns. This trend challenges dairy exporters to develop innovative strategies to recapture market share. 

Moreover, the U.S. dairy industry faces stiff competition from dairy powerhouses like New Zealand and the European Union. These countries are backing their dairy sectors with proactive export strategies and government support, making the global market fiercely competitive. U.S. producers must innovate and improve efficiency to sustain their place in the international market.

Potential Implications for 2024

The anticipated decline in dairy exports could impose significant financial strain on U.S. dairy farmers. With exports representing a crucial revenue stream, any downturn will likely impact their bottom lines and economic stability. This financial pressure may force producers to reassess their operations, potentially leading to further reductions in herd sizes and investments. 

Compounding these challenges, lower milk yields are expected to affect overall supply, which could, in turn, drive up prices. While higher prices might seem beneficial, the reality is more nuanced. Increased prices can lead to reduced consumer demand and heightened competition from global markets, making it harder for U.S. products to remain competitive. 

In light of these hurdles, there is a clear need for government intervention and support to stabilize the industry. Programs such as Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) have relieved producers, and their continuation will be essential. Additionally, new initiatives could be explored in the upcoming Farm Bill to address the evolving challenges faced by the dairy sector, helping to ensure its long-term viability and sustainability.

Producers’ Perspective: Navigating a Challenging Market

Producers nationwide are acutely aware of today’s challenging market. Many are reevaluating their strategies with dwindling cow numbers and fluctuating feed costs driven by volatile agriculture markets and adverse weather conditions. Persistent declines in farmgate milk prices and high production costs continue to squeeze profit margins, leaving dairy farmers in a precarious position. 

In response, innovative measures are being adopted. Beef-on-dairy operations, merging beef genetics with dairy herds, enhance profitability. Raising fewer heifers and cutting operational costs are becoming standard practices. Automation and technology promise to improve efficiency and cost management. 

However, the pandemic-induced labor shortage remains a critical bottleneck, with health concerns and regulatory constraints limiting workforce availability. Producers are diversifying income streams to mitigate these issues, venturing into agritourism or other agricultural enterprises to buffer against market volatility. 

Looking ahead, producers are closely monitoring market dynamics and profit margins, with any potential rebound in milk production depending on improved economic conditions and informed decision-making. Enhanced sustainability practices are also a focus as farmers strive to reduce methane emissions and implement eco-friendly methods.

Future Forecast: What Lies Ahead for Dairy Exports and Production?

The outlook for dairy exports and milk production is complex and shaped by various factors. Dr. Christopher Wolf of Cornell University emphasized the role of El Nino weather patterns, potentially causing feed cost volatility. Combined with persistent on-farm inflation, these conditions challenge dairy producers facing reduced farmgate milk prices. 

The shrinking dairy herd adds to the difficulties, with a limited supply of heifers restricting milk production growth. USDA reports forecast a slight downward trend for 2024. 

However, high beef prices and decreasing milk production might boost milk prices later in the year, offering market stability. Krysta Harden of the U.S. Dairy Export Council aims for a 20% export target, reflecting ambitions to expand the U.S. presence in global dairy markets despite trade uncertainties. 

In contrast, the EU projects a 1% increase in cheese exports but declines in butter and skim milk powder, presenting market gaps that U.S. exports could fill to boost overall value and volume. 

The future of U.S. dairy exports and milk production hinges on economic conditions, weather patterns, and strategic industry moves, requiring stakeholders to stay informed and adaptable.

The Bottom Line

The dairy industry’s challenges in 2024 are undeniable. The outlook appears grim with a persistent decline in milk production, reduced cowherd sizes, and a heifer shortage. Although U.S. dairy exports showed some promise, achieving long-term goals is still being determined amid fluctuating markets and soft milk prices. 

Industry stakeholders must take proactive measures. It is crucial to explore strategies to enhance production efficiency and improve margins. Expanding export opportunities could capitalize on a potential market resurgence later this year. 

The path to recovery is complex but possible. With informed decision-making and efforts to address current challenges, stabilization, and growth are within reach. Adapting to market trends will be vital in navigating these turbulent times successfully.

Key Takeaways:

  • Year-over-year milk production saw a 1.3% decline in February 2024.
  • The U.S. milking cowherd has been consistently shrinking each month since June 2023.
  • Despite a dip in cow numbers and heifer availability, milk component production showed some growth from December through February compared to the previous year.
  • Phil Plourd, president of Ever.Ag Insight, highlights the difficulty in imagining significant improvements in milk production under current conditions.
  • Economist Dan Basse expects tight cow numbers to persist given the static heifer replacement rates.
  • U.S. dairy exports were strong in February 2024; however, they remain below the record levels achieved in 2022.
  • Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) indemnity payments provided essential support to producers in 2023 amid declining feed prices and soft milk prices in 2024.

Summary: The dairy industry, which relies on milk yields and exports for regional economies and farmers’ livelihoods, is facing significant challenges in 2024. In February 2024, year-over-year milk production declined by 1.3%, with the U.S. milking cowherd shrinking monthly since June 2023 and limited heifer availability adding to the woes. Despite some resilience in milk component production from December to February, larger challenges overshadow these gains. The USDA Milk Production Report highlights a 2% year-over-year decline across 24 central states in April, reflecting more profound systemic challenges in the U.S. dairy sector. Regional disparities add complexity, with some areas sustaining or boosting production slightly, while places like New Mexico saw a drastic 17.3% decline. Milk production volume has seen significant changes in the past year, with U.S. dairy exports totaling $8.11 billion in 2023, a 16% decrease from the record year of 2022. Environmental challenges like droughts and extreme weather events have become significant obstacles to stable milk yields, impacting forage quality and availability, and straining production budgets. Rising production costs have hindered farmers’ ability to invest in essential technologies, and labor shortages continue to impede dairy operations. Trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts are causing uncertainty and hindering global market competitiveness for U.S. dairy exports. Government intervention and support are needed to stabilize the industry.

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