Get ready for a genetic shake-up, dairy farmers! The U.S. is about to hit the reset button on cattle evaluations. Come April 2025, those impressive PTA numbers you’ve been eyeing? They’re in for a makeover. But don’t panic—it’s not a downgrade; it’s an upgrade. Let’s dive into what this means for your herd’s future.

Summary

The U.S. dairy industry is poised for a significant genetic recalibration on April 1, 2025, as the Council on Dairy Cattle Breeding (CDCB) implements a dual update to lifetime merit indices and genetic evaluations. This change will reset the genetic base to cows born in 2020, resulting in lower Predicted Transmitting Ability (PTA) values across breeds. For instance, Holstein PTAs are expected to decrease by about 750 lbs for milk, 45 lbs for fat, and 30 lbs for protein. Simultaneously, the Net Merit $ (NM$) index will be revised to emphasize butterfat production, feed efficiency, and cow livability, reflecting current market demands and sustainability concerns. While these changes may initially seem drastic, they aim to provide breeders with more accurate and economically relevant selection tools. The update accounts for rapid genetic progress in the dairy industry and aligns evaluations with contemporary economic and environmental pressures, ultimately guiding producers toward more profitable and sustainable breeding decisions.

Key Takeaways

• Genetic base change occurs on April 1, 2025, resetting to cows born in 2020
• PTA values will decrease across all breeds:
• Holstein: -750 lbs milk, -45 lbs fat, -30 lbs protein
• Jersey: -380 lbs milk, -20 lbs fat, -15 lbs protein
• Ayrshire: -550 lbs milk, -28 lbs fat, -18 lbs protein
• Net Merit $ (NM$) index revised with:
• Increased emphasis on butterfat (+13% weighting)
• Greater focus on feed efficiency (41% higher combined impact)
• Doubled weighting for cow livability
• A strong correlation (0.992) between old and new NM$ rankings
• Producers should recalibrate sire selection thresholds (e.g., +2000 NM$ becomes +1300 NM$)
• Changes reflect faster genetic progress and align with current economic and sustainability pressures
• Future updates may include rumen microbiome PTAs and methane emission indexes by 2028
• Breeding strategies should prioritize component ratios and feed efficiency for future profitability

The U.S. dairy industry will undergo its most significant genetic recalibration in decades on April 1, 2025, as the Council on Dairy Cattle Breeding (CDCB) implements simultaneous updates to lifetime merit indices and shifts all genetic evaluations to a 2020-born cow base. This dual adjustment—the first combined overhaul since 2015—aims to reflect 28% faster genetic progress in key traits while aligning economic weightings with today’s $7.20/cwt milk markets and sustainability pressures.

The Mechanics of Change

Resetting the Genetic Compass

Every five years, CDCB adjusts its genetic evaluations to account for industry progress—comparable to upgrading a smartphone’s operating system to handle new apps. The 2025 shift compares all animals against cows born in 2020 rather than 2015, creating these projected PTA adjustments:

Source: CDCB Preliminary Estimates 2025

“Think of it like resetting an odometer after driving 100,000 miles,” explains Dr. John Cole, USDA-AGIL research lead. “The numbers get smaller, but the vehicle’s capability hasn’t changed.”

Merit Index Overhaul

The revised Net Merit $ (NM$) formula now prioritizes:

• Butterfat (↑13% weighting): Reflects cheese demand driving fat prices to $3.20/lb
• Feed Efficiency (↑41% combined impact): Addresses $300/ton feed costs
• Livability (↑100%): Responds to cull values exceeding $1,800/head

“We’re essentially giving fertility traits a 20% promotion and putting milk volume on performance improvement plans,” quips CDCB Chair Amy Hazel.

On-Farm Implications

Breeding Strategy Shifts

Select Sires’ VP Chuck Sattler urges producers to:

1. Recalibrate Sire Benchmarks: A +2,000 NM$ bull today becomes +1,300 post-change
2. Leverage Feed Savings: Each 1-point FSAV improvement now saves $18/cow/year
3. Prioritize Component Ratios: Target 3.7:1 fat-to-protein for cheese operations

“This isn’t your grandfather’s genetic game. The bull that wins in 2025 needs to be part economist, part environmentalist,”

Market Realities

• Butterfat Focus: 82% of 2024 milk checks came from fat components vs. 68% in 2015
• Feed Costs: Represent 58% of operational expenses, up from 49% pre-pandemic
• Sustainability Pressures: Methane metrics slated for 2028 evaluations

“Dairies surviving the next decade will be those treating feed efficiency as seriously as mastitis control,” warns UW-Madison economist Dr. Mark Stephenson.

Stability Amidst Change

While PTAs drop numerically, CDCB reports:

• 0.992 correlation between old/new NM$ rankings
• Top 100 Holstein bulls maintain relative positions
• Cheese Merit $ (CM$) adjustments favor Jerseys (+7% index stability)

“It’s like everyone’s GPS recalculating simultaneously—you’ll reach the destination, just with updated traffic data,” assures CDCB technical director João Dürr.

Looking Ahead

The 2025 reset paves the way for:

• Rumen Microbiome PTAs (2028): Linking microbial profiles to feed conversion
• Methane Emission Indexes: Pending EPA enteric fermentation regulations
• Heat Tolerance Updates: Critical as 73% of U.S. counties face higher heat stress days

Conclusion

April’s genetic overhaul serves as both a progress report and crystal ball—validating two decades of genomic advances while redirecting selection pressure toward tomorrow’s profitability drivers. As dairy economist Chris Wolf notes, “The cows we’ll milk in 2035 are being designed today through these evaluations.” Producers who realign breeding strategies with NM$ 2025’s economic reality—where every 1 lb of fat equals 2.3 lbs of protein in revenue—position themselves to thrive in dairy’s next era.

Learn More

• CDCB’s 2025 Genetic Base and Merit Indices Update: Everything You Need to Know
• August 2024 Genetic Evaluations: Key Updates and Innovations from CDCB and USDA-AGIL
• Lifetime Merit Indices: Preparing for Significant Changes in Dairy Farming

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