Archive for cow numbers

How Dairy Farms in the US Cut Greenhouse Gases by 42% in 50 Years

See how US dairy farms have changed in 50 years. Want to know more? Read the full story.

Have you ever wondered how your morning milk became more environmentally friendly? Over the last 50 years, dairy farms in the United States have seen a dramatic change, increasing milk production efficiency while considerably reducing environmental impact. These changes are more than simply numbers on paper; they impact our everyday lives, health, and common environment.

Join us as we look at this beautiful path of advancement and invention. Discover how technological improvements, crop yields, and farm management have revolutionized the dairy farming industry. This isn’t simply about cows making more milk.  It’s about a holistic improvement in: 

  • Greenhouse gas emissions reduction
  • Improved fossil energy efficiency
  • Smarter water usage

“The national average intensity of GHG emissions decreased by 42%, demonstrating a 14% increase in the total GHG emissions of all dairy farms over the 50 years.”

The implications of these developments are enormous. Reduced environmental effects lead to a healthier earth, while enhanced production efficiency guarantees that dairy products remain a mainstay in our meals. As consumers, being aware of these improvements enables us to make better decisions and appreciate the intricate processes that deliver food to our meals.

Environmental Metric19712020% Change
GHG Emissions (kg CO2e/kg FPCM)1.700.99-42%
Fossil Energy Use (MJ/kg FPCM)5.772.67-54%
Water Use (kg/kg FPCM)33.524.1-28%
Ammonia Emissions (g/kg FPCM)11.67.59-35%
Nitrogen Leaching (g/kg FPCM)5.231.61-69%
Phosphorus Runoff (mg/kg FPCM)176.2118.3-33%

Guess What? We Now Need 30% Fewer Cows but Produce Twice the Milk! 

Did you know that we now require around 30% fewer cows to produce almost twice as much milk as we did fifty years ago? That’s correct; despite having fewer cows, milk output has increased dramatically, owing to advances in agricultural methods and technology.

Here’s a brief breakdown: 

  • 1971: Larger herds with lower production efficiency needed more cows.
  • 2020: With better genetics, nutrition, and farm management, fewer cows produce more milk.

What does this mean for the environment? The math is simple and impactful: 

  • 42% decrease in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission intensity per unit of milk produced.
  • 54% decrease in fossil energy use intensity.
  • 28% reduction in water intensity for milk production.

This is more than simply producing more milk; it is also about making it more environmentally friendly and sustainable. The advantages extend beyond the farm, impacting everything from energy use to water conservation. Dairy farms reduce their environmental impact significantly by increasing efficiency.

Isn’t it a marvel? The dairy business has shown that with innovation and effort, fewer resources may lead to increased production and environmental advantages. It’s a narrative of growth that offers hope for a sustainable future.

Watch Out! The New Tech Revolution Turning Dairy Farms Green

Consider how smarter, more efficient agricultural equipment may alter the dairy sector. Tractors have evolved into lean, mean machines capable of producing milk. Today’s tractors are significantly more fuel-efficient than those of the past. They lowered fossil fuel use by 54% using less diesel [USDA NASS, 2023b].

But it’s not just the tractors. The energy that runs dairy farms has likewise undergone a green revolution. The push for renewable energy has made it cleaner and more efficient, resulting in lower greenhouse gas emissions from power consumption [Rotz et al., 2021]. This environmentally friendly makeover includes fertilizer. More effective fertilizers need less of them to provide higher crop yields, minimize nutrient runoff, and reduce fossil fuel use [Kleinman et al., 2019].

All of these developments add up. Each technological advancement increases dairy farming productivity while also being more environmentally friendly.

The Surprising Shift: Why the West is Now the Dairy Capital 

So, why is there so much talk regarding regional shifts? Let’s get into it. Dairy farming in the United States has increasingly transitioned from the East to the West over the last 50 years. This relocation has substantially impacted environmental indicators in addition to geography. Take cow numbers as an illustration. In the East, numbers have dropped by almost 49%. Contrast this with the West, where cow numbers have more than doubled.

So, what does this transition signify for the environment? For starters, the West’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have surged as the number of cows has grown. GHG emissions are projected to triple in places such as the Northwest and Southwest. This surge cancels out the East’s lower emissions, resulting in a moderate national increase of 14% in overall GHG emissions.

Then there’s water consumption. Western farms depend heavily on irrigated crops to feed their cattle, causing water demand in locations such as the Southwest to skyrocket—576 kg/kg FPCM. The national total water usage has increased by 42%, posing a significant challenge considering the West’s periodic water shortages and droughts.

However, it is not all doom and gloom. There have been some beneficial developments. For example, although ammonia emissions increased by 29% overall, fertilizer runoff losses such as nitrogen and phosphorus have reduced due to improved agricultural techniques.

The east-to-west movement has had a mixed effect—improved efficiency on the one hand but increased resource usage and emissions on the other. The goal is to reduce these heightened consequences while maintaining efficiency improvements.

You Won’t Believe How Efficient Dairy Farms Have Become! 

Did you know that during the last 50 years, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per unit of milk produced in the United States have fallen by 42%? This significant drop is primarily the result of improvements in milk production efficiency and novel dairy farm operations. For example, contemporary technology has helped dairy farms become more efficient, enabling them to produce the same quantity of milk while using fewer resources and producing less waste.

You may wonder how this considerable reduction in GHG emission intensity translates into just a 14% increase in overall GHG emissions, particularly considering the huge increase in milk output. The solution is efficiency. In 1971, dairy farms required more cows and energy to produce the same quantity of milk. Today, technological breakthroughs, such as improved feed quality and management procedures, have enabled farms to grow almost twice as much milk with 30% fewer cows.

While total milk production has almost doubled, increased efficiency means that each gallon produces much less emissions. For example, agricultural methods today include improved manure management, which decreases methane emissions, and precision feeding, which optimizes cow diets to minimize GHG emissions (https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions). Adopting renewable energy sources like anaerobic digesters reduces GHG emissions by converting waste into electricity  (https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/pub-details/?pubid=90538).

So, while generating much more milk, the overall increase in GHG emissions is relatively minor. This balance demonstrates the impressive efficiency improvements of current dairy production operations. Not only does this improvement assist the environment, but it also illustrates how technology breakthroughs may generate considerable environmental change. Isn’t it something to think the next time you have a glass of milk?

Here’s Something to Chew On: US Dairy Farms Have Made Remarkable Strides in Reducing Their Reliance on Fossil Energy 

The figures reveal an eye-opening narrative of a 54% decline in fossil energy intensity over the last 50 years. This implies that the energy needed per unit of milk produced has been reduced by more than half! Furthermore, the overall amount of fossil energy used across all farms has fallen by 9%.

How did we achieve this big efficiency boost? Technological developments and improved resource management play prominent roles. For starters, the transition to more efficient gear has been game-changing. Modern tractors and equipment use far less fuel per acre than their antique predecessors. Adopting diesel engines instead of gasoline engines has also been a significant advancement. Naranjo et al. (2020) found comparable results for California dairy farms, indicating a general trend.

However, it is not just about improved engines. The transition to renewable energy sources, such as employing anaerobic digesters to produce power from cow dung, contributes to a decrease in fossil energy use. These digesters not only reduce fossil fuel usage but also aid in reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

On the farm management front, resource efficiency has gained precedence. Farmers are increasingly using technologies such as precision agriculture, which enables them to apply the exact quantity of inputs such as water and fertilizer, reducing waste and increasing efficiency.

These developments are not just flashes in the pan but significant milestones toward sustainable dairy production. And although we’ve made tremendous progress, the road is far from done. The dairy industry’s continuing commitment to innovation and development will guarantee that it stays responsible for our natural resources.

Brace for Impact: Western Dairy Farms’ Water Use is Skyrocketing Despite Efficiency Gains 

While we’ve made significant progress in lowering water consumption intensity per unit of milk produced by 28%, the tale doesn’t stop there. The transfer of milk production to the drier western areas has resulted in a 42% rise in total blue water use. This implies that, while utilizing water more effectively, the sheer quantity of dairy farms in arid places has increased total water use.

So why is this such a huge deal? Water is a valuable and often limited resource, particularly in the West. Increasing irrigation water demand confronts the combined danger of rising temperatures and decreasing water resources. As climatic conditions worsen, it is apparent that water usage efficiency will no longer be a luxury; it will be required for the long-term viability of US dairy farms.

Innovative technology and improved water management methods may assist in addressing this problem. Advanced irrigation systems, drought-resistant crops, and even the capture and reuse of water in dairy operations must become routine practices. This proactive strategy guarantees that dairy farming grows while still being environmentally friendly.

The Nutrient Puzzle: Why Are Some Emissions Up While Others Are Down? 

Let’s examine nutritional losses—they’re a bit like a double-edged sword. Have you ever wondered why some emissions rise while others fall? It’s rather fascinating.

Consider ammonia emissions, for example. They increased by a stunning 29%. You could be wondering, “Why?” As it turns out, more cows are kept in open areas, and long-term manure storage is used more often. These technologies are known for emitting substantial ammonia into the atmosphere [Rotz, 2014]. This has been a tricky issue since, as our technologies progressed, they unintentionally resulted in more ammonia floating about.

On the other hand, nitrogen leaching has decreased by 39%, which is a good surprise. How did this happen? The key is effective nutrition management. Farms avoid excess nitrogen from leaching into groundwater by improving manure nitrogen use and reducing inorganic fertilizer usage. Using cover crops and less tillage reduces leaching (Castaño-Sánchez, 2022). As ammonia emissions increased, nitrogen levels that may contaminate water sources were reduced.

Continuing with uneven outcomes, let’s talk about the runoff losses. Here’s a positive statistic: nitrogen and phosphorus runoff losses have decreased by 27% to 51%. That is big! Fewer tillage operations and cover crops have lowered nutrient and sediment runoff [Veltman, 2021]. When manure is absorbed into the soil more quickly and with some subsurface injection, less phosphorus ends up in runoff, especially sediment-bound phosphorus.

So there you have it. The landscape of nutrient outputs and losses is complicated, requiring a continual balancing act. Nonetheless, these advancements indicate that we are moving on the right path, even if specific indicators lag.

The Hidden Cost of Efficiency: Rising Methane and VOC Emissions

A disadvantage of higher milk production efficiency is increased methane (CH4) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Over the last 50 years, methane emissions from dairy farms have increased by 32%, while reactive non-methane VOCs have increased by 53%. These data should catch your attention, particularly given the rapid expansion of dairy farms in the western areas.

So, what’s behind these increases? It comes down to two key factors: 

  • More Cows, More Emissions: Western dairy farms have expanded significantly despite a national decline in cow numbers. More cows produce more methane, primarily via enteric fermentation and waste management. The construction of long-term manure storage facilities, such as lagoons and piles, increases methane emissions.
  • Increased Surface Area for VOCs: Changes in how farmers store feed and waste add to VOC emissions. Large, open silage bunkers and piles enable more organic material to react with oxygen, producing and releasing volatile organic compounds.

The environmental implications are worrying: 

  • Climate Change: Methane is a potent greenhouse gas, with a global warming potential 28 times larger than CO2 [EPA]. The rise in methane levels is a setback in the battle against climate change.
  • Air Quality: VOCs lead to the formation of ground-level ozone and smog, which degrades air quality and presents health hazards.

These growing emissions underscore the need for new methods and technology to manage manure and silage on dairy farms effectively. To address these expanding problems, environmental stewardship must stay up with industrial improvements.

Still Skeptical About the Incredible Advancements in Dairy Farming? Here’s What the Experts Are Saying! 

Still dubious about the remarkable advances in dairy farming? Let’s look at what the experts are saying.

Capper et al. found that improved feed efficiency and animal management practices had considerably increased milk yield per cow. According to [Capper et al., 2009](https://doi.org/10.3168/jds.2009-2079), the average milk supply per cow has increased by 2.4 times in the last 50 years, leading to significant environmental advantages.

The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) backs up these allegations. Their statistics demonstrate a staggering 42% reduction in greenhouse gas emission intensity across US dairy farms, attributable to advances in feed efficiency and other sustainable practices ([USDA NASS, 2023a](https://www.nass.usda.gov/).

Rotz et al. discuss technical improvements, emphasizing the function of precision agricultural instruments and anaerobic digesters in lowering fossil energy use. According to their complete study, “The shift to more efficient farm machinery and renewable energy sources has cut fossil energy use by over 50% per unit of milk produced ” ([Rotz et al., 2021](https://doi.org/10.3168/jds.2020-19793)).

However, not everything is bright, as Hospers et al. point out in their analysis of Dutch dairy farms. They point out that although Western US farmers have made tremendous progress, overall output growth has resulted in increased water demand. “Efficient irrigation technologies have not kept up with the rapid expansion of dairy operations in arid regions,” their report says (Hospers et al., 2022).

Even environmentalists are chiming in. Hristov et al. note that ammonia emissions remain a major problem. “Despite significant gains in reducing other pollutants, ammonia from manure storage and management still poses environmental challenges,” they warn (Hristov et al., 2018).

These credentials support the assertions and highlight the continuing problems and opportunities for future progress in US dairy production. Whether it’s a rise in milk output or the introduction of ground-breaking technology, the sector is transforming, and the evidence speaks for itself.

The Bottom Line

The dairy business in the United States has made fantastic improvements during the last 50 years. We’ve made significant progress in lowering the number of cows required, improving milk production efficiency, and minimizing environmental consequences such as greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption. However, these accomplishments are fraught with difficulties, particularly in countries such as the West, where water use has surged. Improved efficiency is excellent, but it is evident that continuous innovation and new methods are required to sustain this pace.

The dilemma remains: How can we continue to enjoy dairy products while safeguarding the environment? It’s not only about reflecting on our achievements but also about anticipating what might be accomplished. Can we make additional efforts to capture renewable energy on farms, enhance waste management systems, or adopt more water-efficient agricultural practices? Sustainable dairy production in the future depends on our willingness to accept and spread these creative ideas.

Key Takeaways:

  • Dairy farms in the US now use 30% fewer cows but produce twice as much milk compared to 50 years ago.
  • Technological advancements have significantly increased crop yields, fuel efficiency, and resource efficiency on farms.
  • Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission intensity per unit of milk decreased by 42%, even though total GHG emissions slightly increased by 14%.
  • Fossil energy use per unit of milk dropped by 54%, with a national total reduction of 9% in fossil energy use over 50 years.
  • Water intensity for milk production decreased by 28%, but total blue water use rose by 42% due to more dairy farms in arid western regions.
  • Ammonia emissions increased by 29%, while nitrogen leaching losses decreased by 39% over the same period.
  • Total phosphorus runoff losses decreased by 27% to 51%, thanks to better fertilizer use, reduced tillage, and more cover crops.
  • Methane emissions rose by 32%, and reactive non-methane volatile organic compounds increased by 53%, attributed to long-term manure storage and silage practices.
  • Continued advancements are essential to further reduce the environmental impact of dairy farming in light of climate variability.

Summary:

Over the past 50 years, US dairy farms have drastically improved in areas like milk production efficiency and environmental sustainability. With 30% fewer cows, farms now produce double the milk. Technological advancementshave reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions intensity by 42% and fossil energy use intensity by 54%. However, total GHG emissions rose by 14%, and methane and reactive non-methane VOC emissions increased due to enhanced manure storage methods. Water use in the western regions surged by 42% despite efficiency improvements. The eastern regions showed notable reductions in nutrient runoff, emphasizing a mixed but overall positive trend towards sustainable dairy farming. Technological advancements, crop yields, and farm management have improved the dairy farming industry, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, improving fossil energy efficiency, and ensuring smarter water usage. Smarter agricultural equipment has transformed the dairy sector, with tractors now being more fuel-efficient and fertilizers requiring less to provide higher crop yields and minimize nutrient runoff. Some beneficial developments have been achieved, such as reduced ammonia emissions and fertilizer runoff losses due to improved agricultural techniques.

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Why Are UK Dairy Farmers Shutting Down? Shocking New Data Reveals Alarming Trends

Why are UK dairy farmers shutting down in record numbers? What alarming trends are driving this shift? Read on to discover the surprising data and insights.

Summary:  British dairy producers are exiting the industry at unprecedented rates, with numbers dropping by 5.8% from April 2023 to April 2024, according to an AHDB survey. This decline is due to fluctuating milk prices, high input costs, adverse weather conditions, and increased regulatory pressures. Despite the reduction in producer numbers, average milk production per farm is rising, indicating industry consolidation rather than a new trend. The North West and North of England are the most affected regions. Increasing input costs, such as a 3.5% rise in gasoline expenses, and regulatory constraints add to the challenges. Land values have also surged, with England seeing a 4% average increase in 2023, while Wales experienced a 23% rise. Despite these hurdles, yearly milk output has steadily increased due to enhanced efficiency per cow, suggesting that the future holds potential for new entrants and further efficiency improvements across the supply chain.

  • British dairy farmers have seen a 5.8% decline in numbers from the previous year.
  • Key regions affected are the North West and North of England.
  • Milk price fluctuations and rising input costs are major factors driving farmers out of the industry.
  • Fuel costs have increased by 3.5% year on year.
  • Land values rose by an average of 4% in England and 23% in Wales in 2023.
  • Despite a decline in producers, annual milk production has increased due to enhanced efficiency per cow.
  • The industry faces increasing regulatory pressures, such as environmental rules and nitrate management.
  • There is potential for new entrants, but consolidation trends are likely to continue.
  • Efforts to improve supply chain efficiency will be crucial for the future of British dairy.
British dairy farmers, decrease, rising expenses, changing milk prices, regulatory constraints, North West, North of England, fluctuated, farm profitability, discontinuing production, input costs, gasoline expenses, economic stress, tight profit margins, inflationary pressures, feed, energy inputs, land values, England, Wales, variations, operational expenses, producer numbers, cow numbers, mid-1990s, milk output, efficiency per cow, modernization, agricultural operations, productivity, new talent, dairy herd, average yields per cow, national milk production volumes, environmental rules, improve efficiency, supply chain.

Did you know British dairy farmers are leaving the sector in historic numbers? In April 2024, the UK had around 7,130 active dairy farmers, a 5.8% decrease from the previous year. This trend is more than simply a blip; it is a troubling sign of deeper concerns. Are growing expenses, changing milk prices, and regulatory constraints straining farmers to the breaking point? Let’s look at the elements behind this migration and what it implies for the future of British dairy production.

Who: British dairy producers. 

What: A significant decline in the number of dairy producers. 

When: Between April 2023 and April 2024. 

Where: Across the UK, the North West and the North of England are the most affected regions. 

Why: Multiple reasons contribute to lower milk prices relative to 2022 peaks, including cull cow prices, ongoing inflation on crucial inputs, higher interest rates, unfavorable weather conditions, regulatory constraints, and succession concerns.

How: According to the most recent AHDB survey, the number of producers decreased by 5.8%, from about 7,570 in April 2023 to 7,130 in April 2024.

RegionProducers Lost (Apr 2023 – Apr 2024)Total Producers (Apr 2024)
North West391,040
North of England22650
Midlands16800
Mid West (Devon, Somerset, Wiltshire)13620
Scotland50850
Wales40530
England (All Other Regions)2601,440
Overall4407,130

Behind the Exodus: Why Are British Dairy Farmers Calling It Quits? 

Understanding why British dairy farmers are quitting the sector requires an examination of individual variables contributing to the trend.

Milk prices have fluctuated significantly, directly affecting farm profitability. According to Freya Shuttleworth, an AHDB senior economist, “Although milk prices are historically higher, they have dropped off substantially from their peaks in 2022.” In June 2024, the average UK farmgate milk price was 38.43ppl, a significant fall from the maximum price paid in 2022 of 13.08ppl [Defra]. This variation has reduced profitability, prompting some farmers to discontinue dairy production.

Input costs have also significantly influenced the situation. Despite stabilized fertilizer prices since mid-2023, gasoline expenses have risen by 3.5% per year. This increase adds to the economic stress on farmers already dealing with tight profit margins as milk prices fall. Furthermore, inflationary pressures on feed and energy inputs worsen the problems.

Land values are another intricate problem. According to Savills’ 2024 Farmland Market study, land prices in England increased by an average of 4% in 2023, with robust availability in the north. In contrast, land prices in Wales significantly increased by 23%, marking the most significant trade activity in 23 years. Such variations in land value cause discrepancies in operational expenses, impacting farmers’ choices on whether to stay or leave the sector.

Weather conditions have also not been beneficial. Shuttleworth continued: “This coincided with some of the wettest weather on record, interrupting forage production.” Due to delayed spring turns, the requirement to house cattle earlier than usual has placed extra strain on fodder and bedding sources, raising operating expenses even higher.

The falling milk prices, increased input costs, fluctuating land values, and bad weather conditions created a challenging environment for British dairy producers. As farmers seek profitability and sustainability, these issues have led some to reevaluate their industry stance.

The Resilient Rise: Unpacking the Paradox of Increased Milk Production Amidst Industry Decline

The British dairy business has seen considerable changes during the last three decades. Producer numbers have fallen by around 70%, indicating a solid consolidation tendency in the industry. Cow numbers have decreased by around 28% since the mid-1990s, which is also noteworthy. Despite these decreases, yearly milk output has steadily increased. This paradox is linked to the persistent quest for improved efficiency per cow, which allows farmers to maintain or even increase total milk production while using fewer resources. Modernization and intentional improvements in agricultural operations have permitted this steady but continuous increase in productivity, ensuring that milk output stays stable despite industry-wide changes.

The Road Ahead: Can British Dairy Bounce Back? 

So, what does the future hold for British dairy, and how likely are producer numbers to rebound?

Shuttleworth said, “There is always room for new blood to come in, which should be encouraged.”However, the current consolidation trend is expected to continue.

“Despite dropping producer numbers, the dairy herd remains generally steady yearly. Although there has been a long-term drop in dairy cow numbers, the sector has worked hard to enhance productivity, with average yields per cow increasing and national milk production volumes remaining largely steady.

“The 2023/24 milk season finished with GB quantities down just 1.6% from the 2015/16 season, our early record, contrasted to an 11.5% drop in the milking herd at this period [January 2016 versus January 2024, ed.].

The researcher concluded that environmental rules would drive the business to improve efficiency across the whole supply chain, from farm to shelf.

The Bottom Line

The British dairy business is in upheaval, with a significant decline in active farmers. Despite historically high milk prices, the reduction has been caused chiefly by inflationary pressures, rising input costs, and regulatory constraints. Surprisingly, even when producer numbers decline, total milk output continues to climb due to increased cow efficiency. This contradiction highlights a pattern of consolidation rather than a complete deterioration in the sector’s viability.

As we look to the future, we must contemplate the ramifications of this transformation. What does this imply for the future generation of dairy farmers? How can we encourage fresh blood to join the industry? Policies that promote financial stability and predictability for producers are urgently needed, enabling them to handle market volatility and regulatory hurdles efficiently. Furthermore, supporting local dairy farmers is more important than ever, providing them with the resources they need to succeed in the face of these changes.

With a significant focus on environmental rules and efficiency gains, the business offers opportunities for those willing to adapt and develop, yet both demand changes. The government and industry levels are designed to support long-term growth and resilience. As consumers, stakeholders, and politicians, we can work together to ensure British dairy farming has a bright and sustainable future.

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EU’s 2024 Milk Production: Stability Amidst Market Roller Coaster

EU milk production is projected to stay stable in 2024. How will this impact dairy farmers? Dive into our expert analysis to find out.

Summary: According to a recent USDA report, the European Union’s milk production is projected to remain stable through 2024. Factors influencing this stability include consistent demand, balanced feed costs, and strategic herd management practices among dairy farmers. The report highlights that while milk production levels are steady, dairy farmers must navigate ongoing challenges, such as economic pressures and fluctuating market conditions. The USDA emphasizes the importance of adopting efficient practices and being adaptable to market changes to maintain profitability.

  • The USDA projects stable milk production in the EU through 2024.
  • Key factors for stability include consistent demand, balanced feed costs, and strategic herd management.
  • Challenges facing dairy farmers include economic pressures and fluctuating market conditions.
  • Efficient practices and adaptability are essential for maintaining profitability.

According to the most recent USDA study, the European Union’s milk output is anticipated to stay constant in 2024. But what exactly does “stable” imply for your bottom line and day-to-day operations? Look at the figures and see how to prepare for the year ahead.

According to the USDA’s newest World Market and Trade report, Europe’s dairy landscape is poised for a steady but challenging 2024, with milk output expected to stay constant.

While increases in cow production are noteworthy, they are offset by a declining dairy herd. The number of dairy cows has fallen below 20 million, continuing a decreasing trend driven by reduced milk prices and higher production expenses. This economic pressure is driving smaller, less efficient farms out of business, reducing the total capacity for milk production.

The importance of environmental policy cannot be emphasized enough. Regulations aimed at reducing nitrogen emissions in countries like the Netherlands and Ireland are expected to reduce herd numbers significantly. These challenges and a generational gap—in which new aspiring farmers are either not entering the industry or are discouraged by high expectations and poor profitability—drive dairy sector consolidation. Larger farms are better suited to withstand these swings than smaller operations, and they play an essential role in stabilizing cow numbers.

The dairy industry’s profit margins have seen better days. Farm-gate milk prices have fallen since early 2023, but input costs remain stubbornly high. This margin crunch is pushing many farmers to reassess their future in milk production, perhaps hastening the departure points for those on the fence. Although milk supplies increased briefly in early 2024, this is unlikely to be a long-term trend since farmers who postponed leaving in 2023 may take the jump this year.

Spring 2024 delivered a varied bag of weather conditions. Much of Europe saw ideal weather, with high temperatures and enough rainfall for pasture and green feed development. However, in northern Europe, especially in countries like Ireland, where pasture-based systems are standard, heavy rain caused problems with field access and limited grassland recovery.

Notwithstanding weather-related issues in northern Europe, the general estimate for milk production in 2024 is steady. Farmers in favorable circumstances should be prepared to capitalize on solid pasture growth. Excessive rainfall may harm grassland; thus, it’s essential to adjust management measures. Staying educated and adaptable to environmental changes will be critical for preserving production and satisfying market needs.

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EU Dairy Sector Faces Production Declines Amid Policy Changes and Trade Developments

Learn why EU dairy production is expected to drop due to policy changes and new trade agreements. Will cheese production continue to grow while other dairy products decline?

Milk output is predicted to decrease from 149.3 million metric tonnes in 2023 to 148.9 MMT this year. Dairy professionals must understand these changes and their ramifications. This minor decrease is more than simply a figure; it represents more profound industry shifts impacted by rules on cow numbers and milk production efficiency. These developments are not isolated; they are part of a more significant revolution fueled by legislative shifts, economic constraints, and environmental obligations. The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and EU Green Deal programs influence farm economics and production decisions.

Meanwhile, regulations such as the Autonomous Trade Regulation, enacted in reaction to geopolitical crises, can affect feed pricing and supply. Understanding these factors is essential for grasping opportunities in the face of change. Join us as we discuss these critical problems facing the dairy business.

ProductProduction in 2023 (mmt)Production in 2024 (mmt)% Change
Milk149.3148.9-0.3%
Cheese10.5610.62+0.6%
Butter2.352.30-2.1%
Non-Fat Dry Milk (NFDM)1.721.62-5.8%
Whole Milk Powder (WMP)1.281.23-3.9%

The Intricate Weave of Policies Shaping the EU Dairy Sector 

The complex web of rules in the European Union is transforming the dairy industry. The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and the EU Green Deal are at the forefront of this transition. Revisions to the CAP, spurred by farmer protests in early 2024, are changing output incentives and operational standards. While these modifications improve sustainability, they also constrain dairy producers’ ability to keep or grow cow numbers. Parallel to the CAP, the EU Green Deal aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions directly affecting cattle production. The Green Deal’s provisions for reducing animal numbers to decrease methane emissions have resulted in smaller dairy herds. According to an impartial analysis, these climatic objectives would reduce cattle productivity by 10-15%. 2024 EU milk output is predicted to fall from 149.3 million metric tons by 2023 to 148.9 million. This emphasizes the difficulty of reconciling sustainability with the economic realities of dairy production. As the industry navigates these constraints, regulatory compliance and production sustainability will determine the future of EU dairy. This interaction between policy and production necessitates reconsidering how agricultural and environmental objectives might promote ecological and economic sustainability.

USDA GAIN Report Signals Minor Dip in EU Milk Production Amid Policy-Induced Shifts

According to the USDA GAIN research, EU milk production is expected to fall slightly, from 149.3 million metric tonnes in 2023 to 148.9 million metric tonnes in 2024, owing to regulations impacting cow numbers and milk yield. The research also anticipates a 0.3% decrease in industry usage consumption. While cheese output is forecast to increase by 0.6% to 10.62 million metric tons, other essential dairy products will likely fall. Butter is expected to decline by 2.1%, nonfat dry milk by 5.8%, and whole milk powder by 3.9%, underscoring the industry’s more significant issues and adjustments.

Cheese Production: The Cornerstone of the EU Dairy Processing Industry 

The EU dairy processing business relies heavily on cheese production to meet high consumer demand in Europe and beyond. Cheese, deeply rooted in European culinary traditions, is a household staple in various foods. Its extended shelf life compared to fresh dairy products offers logistical advantages for both local and international commerce. Cheese’s versatility, ranging from high-value aged sorts to mass-market variants, enables manufacturers to access a broader market segment, enhancing profitability.

Cheese manufacturing is consistent with the EU’s aims of sustainability and quality. The procedure allows for more effective milk consumption, and byproducts such as whey may be utilized in other industries, minimizing waste. Cheese manufacturing supports many SMEs throughout the EU, boosting rural employment and community development.

EU-27 cheese output is expected to reach 10.62 million metric tonnes (MMT) in 2024, up 0.6% from 2023. This rise not only indicates strong market demand but also underscores the importance of cheese in the EU dairy sector’s strategy. The predicted growth in cheese exports and domestic consumption provides confidence in the industry’s direction and its ability to meet market demands.

Declining Butter, NFDM, and WMP Production Amid Strategic Shifts 

Butter, nonfat dry milk (NFDM), and whole milk powder (WMP) output are expected to fall by 2.1%, 5.8%, and 3.9%, respectively, reflecting more significant developments in the EU dairy industry. These decreases indicate a purposeful shift toward cheese manufacturing, prompted by market needs and legislative constraints. Reduced butter output may impact local markets and exports, possibly raising prices. Similarly, reducing NFDM and WMP output may affect sectors like baking and confectionery, requiring supply chain modifications and altering global trade balances. These modifications may also reflect the EU Green Deal and amended Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) ideas. Prioritizing cheese production, which generates greater economic returns and corresponds to current consumer trends, is a practical technique. However, this move may jeopardize dairy industry sustainability initiatives, emphasizing the need for continual innovation. The reduction in production in these dairy divisions influences global economic dynamics, trade ties, and market competitiveness. Adapting to these developments necessitates balancing quality standards, environmental compliance, and shifting customer choices that prioritize animal care and sustainability.

A Promising Trajectory for Cheese Exports and Domestic Consumption 

Forecasts for the rest of 2024 indicate a robust trend for EU cheese exports and domestic consumption. This expansion is driven by strategic export efforts and shifting consumer tastes, with cheese remaining fundamental to the EU’s dairy industry. Domestically, cheese is becoming a household staple, reflecting more excellent animal welfare standards and sustainable techniques. On the export front, free trade agreements and market liberalization, particularly after Brexit, create new opportunities for EU dairy goods. Cheese output is expected to exceed 10.62 million metric tons, demonstrating the sector’s flexibility and relevance in supplying local and international demand. As cheese exports increase, the EU may improve its market position by employing quality assurance and international certifications. Increased demand is anticipated to encourage more innovation and efficiency in the business, keeping the EU dairy market competitive globally.

Striking a Balance: Navigating Strains and Sustainability in EU Dairy Policies 

Stringent rules under the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and the EU Green Deal provide considerable hurdles to the EU dairy industry. Due to these rules, dairy producers suffer financial constraints, which require expensive investments in sustainable techniques without corresponding financial assistance. The Green Deal’s decrease in greenhouse gas emissions necessitates costly modifications to agricultural operations, such as improved manure management systems, methane-reducing feed additives, and renewable energy investments. These financial pressures are exacerbated by market uncertainty, making farmers’ livelihoods more vulnerable.

Farmers claim that the CAP’s emphasis on lowering animal numbers to fulfill environmental standards jeopardizes the profitability of dairy farming, especially for small, family-run farms that need more resources to make required improvements. The emotional toll on these families, many of whom have been in business for decades, complicates the situation. Furthermore, there is a notion that these policies ignore regional agricultural traditions and the diverse effects of environmental rules between EU member states.

In reaction to major farmer protests in March 2024, the EU Commission has proposed CAP reforms that aim to strike a balance between environmental aims and economic viability. These include excellent financial help for sustainable activities, such as grants and low-interest loans for environmentally friendly technologies, and flexible objectives considering regional variances. The reformed CAP also aims to increase farmer involvement in policymaking, ensuring that future policies are anchored in reality. By addressing these challenges, the EU hopes to build a dairy industry that is robust, sustainable, and economically viable.

The EU Green Deal: A Pivotal Force Driving Environmental Transformation in the Dairy Sector 

The EU Green Deal seeks to align the European Union with ambitious climate targets, emphasizing changing the agriculture sector, particularly dairy. This effort focuses on lowering carbon footprints via severe laws and incentive schemes. According to external research, meeting these criteria might result in a 10-15% drop in livestock numbers. The larger context of sustainable agriculture needs a balance between economic vitality and environmental purity. The EU Green Deal requires the dairy industry to embrace more organic and pasture-based systems, shifting away from intensive feeding techniques. This change has implications for farms and supply networks, altering feed pricing and logistics. The EU’s commitment to mitigating climate change via the Green Deal presents difficulties and possibilities for the dairy sector, encouraging new practices and changing established production models.

The Double-Edged Sword of EU Free Trade Agreements: Navigating Dairy Market Dynamics

The EU’s free trade agreements are critical to the survival of the dairy industry, bringing both possibilities and problems. These agreements seek to increase the worldwide competitiveness of EU dairy products by creating new markets and lowering tariffs. However, they also need a delicate balance to safeguard indigenous companies from international competition, often resulting in strategic industry reforms.

These trade agreements prioritize quality assurance and respect for international standards. Upholding tight quality standards and acquiring worldwide certifications help EU dairy products retain a robust global image, allowing for easier market access. Furthermore, the EU’s dedication to environmental and sustainability requirements demonstrates its dual emphasis on economic development and environmental stewardship.

The Autonomous Trade Measures Regulation (ATM), implemented in reaction to geopolitical concerns such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, influences the dairy industry by influencing feed pricing and availability. This, in turn, affects EU dairy producers’ production costs and tactics. As trade agreements change, the EU dairy industry must remain agile and resilient, using logistical knowledge and environmental stewardship to manage obstacles and capitalize on global possibilities.

The Ripple Effect of ATM: Strategic Imperatives for EU Dairy in a Tenuous Global Landscape

The Autonomous Trade Measures Regulation (ATM), adopted in June 2022, was a direct reaction to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This program temporarily attempted to liberalize trade for a restricted group of Ukrainian goods. This strategy has significant repercussions for the EU dairy business, notably regarding feed pricing and availability. The entry of Ukrainian agricultural goods has the potential to stabilize or lower feed prices, easing the burden on EU dairy producers facing growing production costs and severe environmental rules like the EU Green Deal.

The cheaper feed may assist in alleviating economic constraints and encourage farmers to maintain or slightly improve the milk supply. However, this optimistic forecast is tempered by persisting geopolitical uncertainty that jeopardizes continuous trade flows from Ukraine. The end of the war and establishing stable trade channels are critical to retaining these advantages. Any interruption might cause feed costs to rise, exposing the EU dairy industry to external shocks.

While ATM regulation provides immediate benefits, its long-term effectiveness mainly depends on geopolitical events. EU policymakers and industry stakeholders must remain watchful and adaptive, ensuring that contingency measures are in place to safeguard the dairy sector from future risks while balancing economic and environmental objectives.

The Bottom Line

The changing environment of the EU dairy business demands strategic adaptation among laws, trade agreements, and sustainability programs. Looking forward, dairy farmers must strike a balance between economic and environmental aims. Policies such as the Common Agricultural Policy and the EU Green Deal cause a modest decrease in milk output. Cheese production continues to be strong, with predicted growth in both output and consumption. Butter, nonfat dry milk, and whole milk powder output are expected to fall, indicating strategic industry movements. Adjustments like the Autonomous Trade Measures Regulation underscore the need for strategic planning. The EU’s approach to free trade agreements must strike a balance between market competitiveness and environmental integrity. Technological advancements, strategic relationships, and sustainable practices can help the industry succeed. Dairy producers must stay adaptable, knowledgeable, and dedicated to sustainability. Strategic planning and effort will allow the sector to thrive in this disruptive period.

Key Takeaways:

  • Milk Production Decline: EU milk production is forecasted to decrease from 149.3 million metric tonnes in 2023 to 148.9 mmt in 2024.
  • Policy Impacts: The reduction is influenced by policies affecting cow numbers and overall milk production.
  • USDA GAIN Report Insights: A 0.3% decrease in factory use consumption is anticipated in 2024.
  • Cheese Production Growth: EU-27 cheese production is expected to reach 10.62 mmt in 2024, a 0.6% increase from 2023.
  • Declining Production of Other Dairy Products: Butter, non-fat dry milk (NFDM), and whole milk powder (WMP) production are anticipated to decrease by 2.1%, 5.8%, and 3.9% respectively.
  • Rising Cheese Demand: Both cheese exports and domestic consumption are forecasted to rise in 2024.
  • Policy Challenges: The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and the EU Green Deal initiatives are influencing farmers’ production decisions.
  • Trade Dynamics: The EU is engaging in multiple free trade agreements, including concessions on dairy, while the Autonomous Trade Measures Regulation (ATM) could impact feed prices and availability.

Summary:

Milk output is expected to decrease from 149.3 million metric tonnes in 2023 to 148.9 MMT this year due to industry shifts influenced by cow numbers and milk production efficiency rules. These developments are part of a larger revolution driven by legislative shifts, economic constraints, and environmental obligations. The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and the EU Green Deal programs influence farm economics and production decisions, with Regulations like the Autonomous Trade Regulation affecting feed pricing and supply. The EU dairy industry faces significant challenges due to strict rules under the CAP and the EU Green Deal, which require expensive investments in sustainable techniques without financial assistance. Farmers argue that these policies ignore regional agricultural traditions and the diverse effects of environmental rules between EU member states. The EU Commission proposed CAP reforms in March 2024 to strike a balance between environmental aims and economic viability.

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Dairy Market Forecast: Price Increases, Export Changes, and Tighter Milk Supplies for 2024-2025

Uncover the effects of reduced milk supplies and evolving export trends on dairy prices for 2024-2025. Are you ready to navigate the upcoming changes in the dairy market?

High angle view of most common dairy products shot on rustic wooden table. The composition includes milk, sour cream, butter, yogurt, eggs and cottage cheese. Predominant colors are white, yellow and brown. High resolution 42Mp studio digital capture taken with Sony A7rii and Sony FE 90mm f2.8 macro G OSS lens

The complexity of the dairy business, particularly in estimating milk output and price, is of utmost importance in 2024 and 2025. Slower milk per cow growth will influence supply, while local and foreign demand swings complicate the situation. The dairy business is at a crucial stage. Understanding these relationships is not just critical, but it also empowers stakeholders, ensuring they are well informed and prepared. Higher cow numbers, shifting commercial exports and imports, and price modifications for dairy products all contribute to the sector’s volatility. Anticipating market trends in the $1.1 trillion dairy sector helps business players manage problems and comprehend their impact on local economies and global food security.

As we navigate the complexities of the dairy market for 2024 and 2025, it’s essential to understand the interplay between milk production, export trends, and pricing dynamics. The data below provides an insightful overview of the projected changes and underlying factors. 

Challenging Assumptions: Higher Cow Numbers Don’t Guarantee Increased Milk Production 

YearPrevious Forecast (billion pounds)Revised Forecast (billion pounds)Change (%)
2024227.5225.8-0.75%
2025230.0228.2-0.78%

While more significant cow numbers may indicate improved milk output, updated predictions for 2024 and 2025 tell a different story. The key reason for these reduced estimates is slower milk increase per cow, which outweighs the benefits of a large cow inventory. Weather, feed quality, and genetic constraints all contribute to the slow rise in production. Adverse weather affects the quality of feed crops, which are critical for milk production, and genetic innovations face limits that prevent rapid productivity increases. Consequently, even with increased cow numbers, overall milk yield remains below expectations, necessitating a projection revision. It’s the responsibility of industry stakeholders to consider cow numbers and productivity to create accurate estimates and implement successful initiatives, fostering a proactive and responsible approach.

Unveiling the Dynamics of Commercial Dairy Exports: Navigating the Shifting Landscape for 2024 and 2025 

YearCommercial Exports (Fat Basis)Commercial Exports (Skim-Solids Basis)
2024RaisedLowered
2025ReducedReduced

Analyzing changes in commercial exports for 2024 and 2025 indicates a complicated dynamic caused by varied demand and production capacities across categories. Increased butter and cheese shipments in 2024 have boosted fat-based exports, indicating a solid foreign demand for higher-fat dairy products. In contrast, lower skim-solids base exports of nonfat dry milk (NDM) and lactose indicate a shift in the trade environment, which competitive price, nutritional demand adjustments, or trade policy changes might drive.

The forecast is more cautious until 2025. Fat-based and skim-solids-based exports are expected to drop. This might indicate rising internal use, pressure from global competitors, or severe rules limiting export potential. Navigating these obstacles while capitalizing on upcoming possibilities will be critical to the dairy industry’s balanced and sustainable development path.

The Shifting Tides of Dairy Imports: A Detailed Examination for 2024 and 2025

YearFat Basis ImportsSkim-Solids Basis Imports
2024RaisedLowered
2025UnchangedReduced

In 2024, dairy imports on a fat basis are predicted to climb, owing to rising demand for butter and butterfat products. This tendency is likely due to changes in consumer tastes or industry demands. However, imports are expected to fall on a skim-solids basis, reflecting a demand or sourcing strategy shift. In 2025, fat-based imports are expected to stay stable. Still, skim-solids imports are expected to fall, potentially owing to increasing local production or decreasing demand for commodities such as nonfat dry milk and lactose. These import patterns indicate the market factors that affect the dairy industry.

Projected Price Elevations in Dairy Commodities: Implications for 2024 and 2025

YearCheese ($/lb)Butter ($/lb)NDM ($/lb)Whey ($/lb)Class III ($/cwt)Class IV ($/cwt)All Milk ($/cwt)
20242.102.501.450.6020.5019.7522.25
20252.152.551.500.6220.7520.0022.50

Recent steady pricing and tighter milk supply will drive higher dairy product prices in 2024 and 2025. Cheese, butter, nonfat dry milk (NDM), and whey prices are likely to rise compared to prior projections. Cheese prices are expected to climb dramatically by 2024, with butter following suit due to high demand and limited availability. NDM, a key ingredient in dairy products, is expected to rise in price, increasing whey pricing. The trend will continue until 2025, fueled by persistently restricted milk supply and high market prices. As a result, Class III and Class IV milk prices will rise, bringing the overall milk price prediction to $22.25 per cwt in 2024 and $22.50 per cwt in 2025. This increase highlights the influence of limited supply and strong demand on dairy prices, demonstrating the complexities of market dynamics.

Decoding the Surge: Understanding the Upward Forecasts for Class III and Class IV Milk Prices in 2024 and 2025

YearClass III Milk Price ($/cwt)Class IV Milk Price ($/cwt)
202419.8518.00
202520.2518.50

The increased predictions for Class III and Class IV milk prices in 2024 and 2025 are due to higher costs for essential dairy products such as cheese, butter, nonfat dry milk (NDM), and whey. Class III milk is used in cheese manufacturing, leading to higher pricing due to limited supply and high demand. Similarly, Class IV milk, which is used in butter and dry milk products, reflects growing market pricing for these commodities. Higher product prices directly impact milk price estimates since they are used in industry pricing calculations. With a tight milk supply, robust dairy product prices support these increases in Class III and IV milk price estimates.

All Milk Prices Poised for Significant Rise: Charting a New Trajectory for Dairy Market Stability 

The higher adjustment of the milk price projection to $22.25 per cwt in 2024 and $22.50 per cwt in 2025 indicates a substantial change in dairy market dynamics. This gain is driven by tighter milk supply and strong demand for butter, cheese, NDM, and whey. It’s a testament to the sector’s resilience, reassuring stakeholders and instilling confidence in the face of production and export variations.

All Milk Prices Poised for Significant Rise: Charting a New Trajectory for Dairy Market Stability higher pricing per hundredweight (cwt) allows dairy farmers to increase profitability, balancing increased input costs such as feed, labor, and energy. This might increase agricultural infrastructure and technology investments, improving efficiency and sustainability. However, depending on long-term price rises exposes producers to market instability and economic risk. Unexpected milk supply increases, or demand declines might cause price adjustments, jeopardizing financial stability. Stakeholders need to be aware of these potential risks and plan accordingly.

For consumers, predicted price increases in dairy commodities may boost retail costs for milk and milk-based products, straining family budgets, particularly among low-income households. The extent to which merchants pass on cost increases determines the effect. In highly competitive marketplaces, price transmission may be mitigated. Due to price fluctuations, consumers may seek lower-cost alternatives or shift their purchasing habits.

Overall, the expected increase in total milk prices reflects a complicated combination of supply limits and high demand. Farmers and consumers must strategize and adapt to navigate the economic environment and maintain the dairy sector’s long-term existence.

The Bottom Line

The dairy market estimate for 2024 and 2025 demonstrates a complicated relationship between higher cow numbers and slower growth in milk per cow, influencing export and import patterns. Milk output is expected to fall owing to lower milk yield per cow. Commercial dairy exports will grow in 2024 on a fat basis but fall on a skim-solids basis, with an overall decrease in 2025. Fat-based imports will rise in 2024 and stay constant in 2025, while skim-solid imports will fall in both years. Higher prices for cheese, butter, nonfat dry milk (NDM), and whey suggest tighter milk supplies, rising Class III and IV milk prices and driving the all-milk price projection to $22.25 per cwt in 2024 and $22.50 per cwt in 2025. Monitoring supply and demand is crucial for industry stakeholders. To succeed in an ever-changing market, they must be watchful, innovate, and embrace sustainable practices.

Key Takeaways:

  • The milk production forecast for 2024 is reduced due to slower growth in milk per cow, despite an increase in cow numbers.
  • Similarly, the 2025 milk production forecast is lowered as slower growth in milk per cow overshadows a larger cow inventory.
  • For 2024, commercial exports on a fat basis are raised, primarily driven by increased butter and cheese shipments, while skim-solids basis exports are lowered due to reduced nonfat dry milk (NDM) and lactose exports.
  • In 2025, commercial exports are expected to decrease on both fat and skim-solids bases.
  • Fat basis imports for 2024 are projected to rise, reflecting higher anticipated imports of butter and butterfat products, whereas skim-solids basis imports are lowered for a number of products.
  • For 2025, imports remain unchanged on a fat basis but are reduced on a skim-solids basis.
  • The prices of cheese, butter, NDM, and whey for 2024 are raised from previous forecasts due to recent price strengths and expectations of tighter milk supplies.
  • Higher dairy product prices elevate the Class III and Class IV price forecasts for 2024, with the all milk price forecast increased to $22.25 per cwt.
  • These stronger price trends are expected to continue into 2025, further raising projected prices for butter, cheese, NDM, and whey, along with Class III and Class IV milk prices, and an all milk price forecast of $22.50 per cwt.

Summary:

The dairy industry faces challenges in 2024 and 2025 due to slower milk per cow growth, affecting supply and demand swings. Factors like weather, feed quality, and genetic constraints contribute to the slow rise in production, outweighing the benefits of a large cow inventory. Despite increased cow numbers, overall milk yield remains below expectations, necessitating a projection revision. Commercial dairy exports for 2024 and 2025 show a complicated dynamic due to varied demand and production capacities across categories. Increased butter and cheese shipments in 2024 have boosted fat-based exports, indicating solid foreign demand for higher-fat dairy products. However, lower skim-solids base exports of nonfat dry milk and lactose indicate a shift in the trade environment, possibly driven by competitive price, nutritional demand adjustments, or trade policy changes. The forecast is more cautious until 2025, with fat-based and skim-solids-based exports expected to drop. Price elevations in dairy commodities are likely to rise compared to prior projections, with cheese prices climbing dramatically by 2024.

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USDA Reports 10-Month Decline in U.S. Milk Production: May Numbers Drop 1%

Find out why U.S. milk production has been decreasing for the past 10 months. Learn how cow numbers and milk output per cow are affecting the dairy industry. Read more.

The USDA’s preliminary May Milk output report shockingly reveals a consistent drop in U.S. milk output extending for ten months. With May showing a 1% decline from the same month last year, this steady dip points to significant shifts within the dairy sector. The continuous drop has changed the scene of milk output worldwide and pushed industry players to change their plans.

The ten-month run of low milk supply draws attention to systematic problems U.S. dairy producers face: narrow revenue margins, changing feed prices, and bad weather.

Reviewing the USDA’s data, we see: 

  • U.S. milk production fell to 19.68 billion pounds in May 2024, down 0.9% from the previous year.
  • Cow numbers decreased by 68,000 head, reflecting broader herd management strategies.
  • The average milk production per cow dropped by 3 pounds, influenced by various regional factors.
MetricMay 2024May 2023Change
U.S. Milk Production (billion pounds)19.6819.86-0.9%
U.S. Cow Numbers (million)9.359.418-68,000 head
Average Milk per Cow (pounds)2,1052,108-3 pounds
24-State Milk Production (billion pounds)18.87519.009-0.7%
24-State Cow Numbers (million)8.8938.945-52,000 head
24-State Average Milk per Cow (pounds)2,1222,125-3 pounds

A Deeper Dive into USDA’s May 2024 Dairy Estimates 

CategoryMay 2024May 2023Change
U.S. Milk Production (billion pounds)19.6819.86-0.9%
U.S. Cow Numbers (million head)9.359.42-68,000 head
U.S. Average Milk per Cow (pounds)2,1052,108-3 pounds
24-State Milk Production (billion pounds)18.8819.01-0.7%
24-State Cow Numbers (million head)8.898.94-52,000 head
24-State Average Milk per Cow (pounds)2,1222,125-3 pounds

The early projections for May 2024 from the USDA show significant changes in American dairy output. Down 0.9% from May 2023, the total U.S. milk output is 19.68 billion pounds. 9.35 million, U.S. cow counts have dropped 68,000 head from the previous year. Down three pounds year over year, the average milk output per cow is 2,105 pounds.

Milk output in the 24 central dairy states dropped 0.7% from May 2023, coming to 18.875 billion pounds. Down 52,000 head from the year before, cow counts in these states are 8.893 million. With an average milk yield per cow of 2,122 pounds, the milk output has slightly dropped from the previous year—3 pounds less.

Delving into the Dynamics of Cow Numbers: A Tale of Decline and Resurgence

YearTotal U.S. Cow Numbers (millions)24-State Cow Numbers (millions)
20209.458.92
20219.508.95
20229.478.91
20239.358.84
20249.358.89

Cow counts from the USDA show declining and then rising trends. The U.S. dairy herd dropped 68,000 head starting in May 2023, underscoring continuous industry difficulties. However, there has been a slight rise since October 2023, which has driven herd size to its most significant since late 2023.

The 24 central dairy states had a similar trend. From the year before, the combined herd of these states dropped 52,000 head, yet it somewhat recovered with a 5,000 head rise from April 2024. This points to a partial recovery in certain areas while others continue to suffer.

It’s important to note the stark differences at the state level. While Florida and South Dakota saw a gain of 27,000 heads, New Mexico experienced a dramatic drop of 42,000 heads. These variations underscore the influence of local elements such as climate, feed availability, and state-by-state economic forces.

Interwoven Influences on Milk Output per Cow: The Balance of Weather, Feed Costs, and Income Margins 

StateMay 2024 (lbs)May 2023 (lbs)Change (lbs)Change (%)
Florida2,0001,970301.52%
Minnesota2,2102,180301.38%
Wisconsin2,1002,075251.20%
Illinois2,1502,120301.42%
Iowa2,3002,270301.32%
Kansas2,1202,100200.95%
California2,0502,075-25-1.20%
Vermont2,0002,025-25-1.23%
Pennsylvania1,9802,005-25-1.25%
Indiana2,1002,125-25-1.18%

Income margins, feed prices, and regional weather have all played a role in the decline in milk yield per cow. Adverse weather patterns, such as droughts or excessive rainfall, can impact feed and water availability, which in turn can influence cow health and output. High feed prices might drive farmers to choose less nutritious substitutes, which can also affect milk output. These factors highlight the need for a comprehensive approach to address the issue, including strategies to manage weather risks and stabilize feed prices.

Income margins are crucially important. Tight margins often force difficult choices on herd management, reducing expenditures on premium feed or healthcare and, therefore, affecting milk yield per cow.

States like Florida, Minnesota, and Wisconsin reported increases in milk yield, up 15 to 30 pounds per cow, presumably owing to better local circumstances and enhanced procedures compared to year-to-year improvements.

States like California, Vermont, Pennsylvania, and Indiana reported losses of 15 to 25 pounds per cow, on the other hand. California’s ongoing drought and other difficulties, such as changing feed prices and economic pressures, highlight the careful balance between environmental elements and farming methods.

The Bottom Line

The USDA report by May shows a continuous drop in important dairy indicators—ten consecutive months of declining U.S. milk output; May 2024 down about 1% over last year. Though there have been some recent increases, national cow counts have dropped by 68,000 head. Because of regional variations in feed prices, weather, and economic constraints, milk yield per cow decreased somewhat.

These patterns point to a declining milk supply, which would be expected to raise milk prices. This change in prices could benefit medium-sized manufacturers, but it also poses challenges for the sector, including high feed prices and economic difficulties. These factors are driving the industry towards farm consolidation and increased use of technology. The decline in milk output also underscores the need for innovation and policy support to ensure sustainable development in the sector.

Given these trends, it’s clear that the sector needs to innovate to counter these challenges. Strategies such as improving feed efficiency, genetic selection, and dairy management could prove beneficial. Moreover, policy support is not just beneficial, but crucial for ensuring sustainable development in the industry.

Key Takeaways:

  • U.S. milk production for May 2024 is estimated at 19.68 billion pounds, a decrease of 0.9% compared to May 2023.
  • U.S. cow numbers have dropped to 9.35 million, down 68,000 head from the same month last year.
  • The average milk production per cow in the U.S. has marginally declined by 3 pounds, totaling 2,105 pounds per cow.
  • In the 24 major dairy states, milk production is down 0.7%, with total output at 18.875 billion pounds.
  • These 24 states have seen a reduction in cow numbers by 52,000, now standing at 8.893 million.
  • Despite the overall decline, some states like Florida and South Dakota show robust growth in cow numbers and milk output.
  • Conversely, significant decreases in milk production have been observed in states such as New Mexico and California.

Summary: 

The USDA’s preliminary May Milk output report shows a 1% decline in U.S. milk output for ten months, indicating significant shifts within the dairy sector. The ten-month run of low milk supply is attributed to narrow revenue margins, changing feed prices, and bad weather. The total U.S. milk output is 19.68 billion pounds, with cow numbers decreasing by 68,000 head. The average milk production per cow dropped by 3 pounds, influenced by regional factors. The U.S. dairy herd dropped 68,000 heads starting in May 2023, underscoring industry difficulties. However, there has been a slight rise since October 2023, driving herd size to its most significant since late 2023. Interwoven influences on milk output per cow include income margins, feed prices, and regional weather. States like Florida, Minnesota, and Wisconsin reported increases in milk yield, while California, Vermont, Pennsylvania, and Indiana reported losses.

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