Archive for Class IV

USDA Proposes Major Changes to Federal Milk Marketing Order: Key Updates and Stakeholder Reactions

Learn about the USDA’s proposed changes to the Federal Milk Marketing Order. What do these updates mean for dairy farmers and the industry? Check out key insights and reactions below.

Imagine a sector where little legislative changes affect millions of customers and producers. This is the domain of dairy. Recent suggestions for the Federal Milk Marketing Order (FMMO) system by the USDA have attracted much attention. A pivotal hearing in Indiana in late autumn and early winter covered many dairy industry issues. The USDA’s new 600-page proposal calls for changes to modernize the FMMO. This paper dissects these important suggestions and their possible influence on the dairy sector. Why is this relevant to you? These developments could impact milk prices and marketing in the United States, influencing processors, farmers, and the dairy products you buy. Still under examination are several industry players like the American Farm Bureau Federation and the American Dairy Coalition. Knowing these developments helps one have an insightful analysis of the dairy industry’s direction.

Navigating Dairy’s Bedrock: The Evolution of the Federal Milk Marketing Order System 

Since the 1930s, the Federal Milk Marketing Order (FMMO) system has been a pillar of the US dairy sector. Designed under the Agricultural Marketing Agreement Act of 1937, it sought to guarantee fair prices for dairy farmers and balance milk markets. It helps to create a transparent and stable milk market even as it develops to meet new demands.

At first, FMMOs set minimum milk prices depending on use, creating controlled settings to protect consumers and farmers from price volatility. This guaranteed fair returns for farmers and a consistent milk supply for processors. This arrangement has helped control underproduction and overproduction, preventing sharp price changes.

By controlling the supply chain from farm to table and promoting economic stability in the agricultural sector, FMMOs help regional markets. Fair milk pricing across different locations helps to minimize inequalities and guarantees that even less competitive places are still fit for dairy production.

Efforts to modernize FMMOs continue to update them to meet technical developments in dairy production and present issues. FMMOs are vital in maintaining the financial viability of the dairy industry by improving milk composition standards and pricing policies.

The USDA’s Proposed Updates Aim for Modernization and Fairness 

The USDA’s proposed changes aim to modernize the Federal Milk Marketing Order (FMMO) system, ensuring it stays fair and relevant for today’s dairy market. Here are the fundamental changes: 

  • Milk Composition: Adjust protein levels from 3.1% to 3.3%, other solids from 5.9% to 6.0%, and nonfat solids from 9.0% to 9.3%.
  • Cheese Price Reporting: Remove 500-pound barrel cheese prices from the Dairy Products Mandatory Reporting Program survey.
  • Make Allowances: Increase allowances for cheese, butter, nonfat dry milk, dry whey, and butterfat recovery.

Stakeholders’ Initial Reactions: Weighing in on USDA’s FMMO Proposals

Stakeholders are reviewing the USDA’s proposed Federal Milk Marketing Order system revisions. Before speaking, critical organizations such as the American Farm Bureau Federation, Wisconsin Farm Bureau, and American Dairy Coalition give much thought to the plan. Laurie Fischer of the American Dairy Coalition raised a significant issue: the possible vote exclusion of sure farmers.

Edge Dairy Farmer Cooperative and the National Milk Producers Federation both recognize the work behind the initiative. Leaders like Tim Trotter value the thorough attention paid to market studies, written replies, and testimonies. Stakeholders are evaluating the suggested changes’ overall possible effects and fairness.

Voices in the Balance: Voting Eligibility and Representation Concerns 

One issue is voting eligibility for the ultimate package. American Dairy Coalition member Laurie Fischer worries that farmers whose milk isn’t pooled under the federal decree won’t be allowed to vote. This regulation raises questions about fairness and might silence numerous producers.

Tim Trotter, CEO of Edge Dairy Farmer Cooperative, shared these same worries. He underlined the necessity of a few days to review the report carefully. He questioned the present voting rules, highlighting the importance of inclusive decision-making.

One must carefully balance thorough representation with a simplified voting system. Organizations like the Wisconsin Farm Bureau and the American Farm Bureau Federation are currently evaluating the ideas; voting rights will probably remain a major topic of debate.

Industry Reactions: Diverse Opinions and Appreciations on USDA’s Proposed Changes

“This rule would bar producers from voting unless their milk is pooled in the federal order, raising fair representation issues for farmers,” Laurie Fischer from the American Dairy Coalition said of voting eligibility.

Edge Dairy Farmer Cooperative CEO Tim Trotter said, “We need a few days to review the report thoroughly, but appreciate the AMS team’s extensive effort in compiling all testimony, responses, and market analysis.”

These points of view reflect the many perspectives in the dairy sector, the need for thorough analysis, and the involvement of stakeholders as the USDA implements its recommendations.

National Milk Producers Federation Embraces USDA’s FMMO Updates with Cautious Optimism

The proposed USDA amendments excite the National Milk Producers Federation (NMPF). With his optimistic view, NMPF President and CEO Gregg Doud honored the diligence behind these suggestions. “We are glad to see much of what we suggested included in the USDA’s Federal Milk Marketing Order modernization plan,” Doud added. This answer shows that NMPF is dedicated to a fair and contemporary FMMO that advances the dairy industry.

USDA’s Proposals: A Comprehensive Overhaul with Potential Industry-Wide Impacts 

The suggested modifications by the USDA will affect the whole dairy sector.

Refined milk composition elements would help manufacturers improve milk quality and value. However, issues about voting rights might cause more small, non-pooled producers to be overlooked.

Processors may respond differently. Eliminating 500-pound barrel cheese pricing from surveys would streamline reporting, but more allowances translate into more running expenses. Until retail prices increase or efficiency improves, this might strain profits.

Higher manufacturing costs might cause dairy product consumers to pay a premium. However, they could savor more nutrient-dense and better-tasting milk options.

Seeking justice and openness, these suggested improvements seek to modernize the Federal Milk Marketing Order system. The influence will rely on the balance of healthy interests among several sectors.

The Bottom Line

The USDA’s suggested modifications to the Federal Milk Marketing Order system, which address the technical and democratic sides of the dairy supply chain, are a significant step towards modernizing dairy sector rules and guaranteeing a fair market. These adjustments include adjusting milk composition parameters, changing allowances, and considering voting exclusions.

Reactions among stakeholders are varied. While some value the careful study, others worry about farmer representation and voting eligibility. Reflecting years of policy discussion and testimony, these improvements are not just regulatory changes but might also change the dairy business’s economic environment.

The USDA seeks to establish a more open and effective system that benefits consumers and farmers. All industry views must be listened to to guarantee that the final regulation serves the larger society. Stay active, provide comments, and get in touch with your neighborhood dairy groups. Your participation depends on writing a sustainable future for dairy farming.

Key Takeaways:

  • The USDA has proposed changes to the Federal Milk Marketing Order system aiming to modernize and ensure fairness.
  • Adjustments include changes in milk composition factors and an increase in make allowances for Class III and Class IV dairy products.
  • Removal of 500-pound barrel cheese prices from the Dairy Product Mandatory Reporting Program survey is proposed.
  • Stakeholders, including major dairy organizations, are still reviewing the recommendations before commenting.
  • Voting eligibility concerns arise, particularly around the rule barring producers from voting unless their milk is pooled in the federal order.
  • The National Milk Producers Federation shows hope, reflecting the results from extensive policy development and stakeholder input.
  • This overhaul could have significant and wide-ranging impacts across the dairy industry.

Summary:

The USDA has released its recommendations for changes to the Federal Milk Marketing Order system, which includes adjustments to milk composition factors such as protein, other solids, and nonfat solids. The document also proposes removing 500-pound barrel cheese prices from the Dairy Product Mandatory Reporting Program survey and raising Class III and Class IV make allowances for cheese, butter, nonfat dry milk, dry whey, and butterfat recovery. Many dairy stakeholders, including the American Farm Bureau Federation, Wisconsin Farm Bureau, and the American Dairy Coalition, are still reviewing the proposals before commenting. One concern is the question of who farmers will get to vote on the final package, as the rule would bar producers from voting unless their milk is pooled in the federal order. The National Milk Producers Federation President and CEO Gregg Doud expressed hope that much of their proposed changes will be reflected in the USDA’s recommended Federal Milk Marketing Order modernization plan.

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USDA Proposes Return to ‘Higher-Of’ Method for Fluid Milk Pricing: What It Means for Dairy Farmers

Learn how USDA’s plan to bring back the ‘higher-of’ method for milk pricing might affect farmers. Will this change help dairy producers? Find out more.

The USDA plans to bring back the ‘higher-of’ pricing method for fluid milk, a move intended to modernize federal dairy policy based on a comprehensive 49-day hearing that evaluated numerous industry proposals. This method picks the higher price between Class III (cheese) and Class IV (butter and powder) milk, which could signify a notable shift for the dairy industry. Previously, the 2018 Farm Bill had replaced the ‘higher-of’ system with an ‘average-of’ pricing formula, averaging Class III and IV prices with an additional 74 cents. While switching back might benefit farmers, it also introduces risks like negative producer price differentials in 2020 and 2021. The USDA’s proposal seeks to mitigate these challenges and provide farmers financial gains amidst modern dairy economics’ complexities.

Understanding the Federal Milk Marketing Order (FMMO) System 

The Federal Milk Marketing Order (FMMO) system, established in 1937, plays a crucial role in ensuring fair and competitive dairy pricing. It mandates minimum milk prices based on end use, providing price stability for dairy farmers and processors across the U.S. Each FMMO represents a distinct marketing area, coordinating pricing and sales practices. 

The ‘higher-of’ pricing method for Class I (fluid) milk has long been integral to this system. It sets the Class I price using the higher Class III (cheese) or Class IV (butter and powder) price, offering a financial safeguard against market volatility. This method ensures dairy producers receive a fair price despite market fluctuations. 

However, the 2018 Farm Bill introduced an ‘average-of’ formula, using the average of Class III and IV prices plus 74 cents. While aimed at modernizing milk pricing, this change exposed farmers to greater risk and reduced earnings in volatile periods like 2020 and 2021.

A Marathon Analysis: Unraveling Modern Dairy Policy over 49 Days in Indiana

The marathon hearing in Indiana highlighted the complexities of modern dairy policy. Spanning 49 days, from Aug. 23, 2023, to Jan. 30, it reviewed nearly two dozen industry proposals. This intensive process reflected the sophisticated and multifaceted Federal Milk Marketing Order system as stakeholders debated diverse views and intricate data to influence future milk pricing.

Decoding Dairy Dilemmas: The “Higher-Of” vs. “Average-Of” Pricing Methods

The “higher-of” and “average-of” pricing methods are central to understanding their impact on farmers’ incomes. The “higher-of” process, which uses the greater of the Class III (cheese) price or Class IV (butter and powder) price, has historically provided a safety net against dairy market fluctuations. This method ensured farmers got a better price, potentially safeguarding their income during volatile times. Yet, it increased the risk of negative producer price differentials, which reduced earnings in 2020 and 2021. 

On the other hand, the “average-of” method, introduced by the 2018 Farm Bill, calculates the price as the average of Class III and IV prices plus 74 cents. While this seems balanced and predictable, it often fails to deliver the highest financial return when either Class III or IV prices exceed expectations. Farmers have noted that this method might not reflect their costs and economic challenges in volatile markets. 

The “higher-of” method often offers better financial outcomes during favorable market conditions but brings increased uncertainty during unstable periods. Conversely, the “average-of” method offers stability but may miss optimal pricing opportunities. This debate within the dairy industry over the best formula to support farmers’ livelihoods continues. Thus, the USDA’s proposal to revert to the “higher-of” method invites mixed feelings among farmers, whose earnings and economic stability are closely tied to these pricing mechanisms.

Examining the Potential Implications of the USDA’s Return to the ‘Higher-Of’ Pricing Method 

The USDA’s return to the ‘higher-of’ pricing method, while potentially beneficial, also presents some challenges that the industry needs to be aware of. This approach, favoring the higher Class III (cheese) or Class IV (butter and powder) prices, seems more beneficial than the ‘average-of’ formula. However, deeper insights indicate potential challenges that need to be carefully considered. 

The ‘higher-of’ method usually leads to higher fluid milk prices but poses the risk of negative producer price differentials (PPDs). When the Class I price far exceeds the average of the underlying class prices, PPDs can become negative, as seen during the harsh economic times of 2020 and 2021, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic

Negative PPDs can hit farmers’ financial stability, making it harder to predict income and manage cash flows. This reflects the delicate balance between gaining higher milk prices now and ensuring long-term financial reliability. 

The 24-month rolling adjuster for extended-shelf-life milk introduces further uncertainty. Its effect on milk pricing needs to be clarified, potentially causing fluctuating incomes for farmers in this segment. 

In conclusion, while the ‘higher-of’ pricing method may offer immediate benefits, risks like negative PPDs and uncertain impacts on extended-shelf-life milk pricing demand careful consideration. Farmers must balance these factors with their financial strategies and long-term sustainability plans.

New Horizons for ESL Milk: Navigating the 24-Month Rolling Adjuster Amidst Market Uncertainties

Under the USDA’s new proposal, regular fluid milk will revert to the ‘higher-of’ pricing. In contrast, extended-shelf-life (ESL) milk will follow a different path. The plan introduces a 24-month rolling adjuster for ESL milk to stabilize prices for these longer-lasting products. 

Yet, this change brings uncertainties. Laurie Fischer, CEO of the American Dairy Coalition, questions the impact on farmers. The 24-month adjuster is untested, making it difficult to foresee its effects amid fluctuating market conditions. ESL milk’s unique production and logistics further complicate predictions. 

Critics warn that the lack of historical data makes it hard to judge whether this method will help or hurt farmers. There’s concern that it could create more price disparity between regular and ESL milk, potentially straining producers reliant on ESL products. While USDA aims to tailor pricing better, its success will hinge on adapting to real-world market dynamics.

Make Allowance Controversy: Balancing Processor Profitability and Farmer Finances

The USDA also plans to increase the make allowance, a credit to dairy processors to cover rising manufacturing costs. This adjustment aims to ensure processors are adequately compensated to sustain profitability and operational efficiency, which is expected to benefit the entire dairy supply chain. 

However, this proposal has drawn substantial criticism. Laurie Fischer, CEO of the American Dairy Coalition, argues that the increased make allowance effectively reduces farmers’ milk checks, disadvantaging them financially.

Pivotal Adjustments and Economic Realignment in Dairy Pricing Formulas

The USDA’s proposal adjusts pricing formulas to match advancements in milk component production since 2000. This update ensures that farmers receive fair compensation for their contributions. 

The proposal also revises Class I differential values for all counties to reflect current economic realities. This is essential for maintaining fair compensation for the higher costs of serving the fluid milk market. By reevaluating these differentials, the USDA aims to align the Federal Milk Marketing Order system with today’s economic landscape.

Recalibrating Cheese Pricing: Transition to 40-pound Cheddar Blocks Only

Another critical change in USDA’s proposal is the shift in the cheese pricing system. Monthly average cheese prices will now be based solely on 40-pound cheddar blocks instead of including 500-pound cheddar barrels. This aims to streamline the process and more accurately reflect market values, impacting various stakeholders in the dairy industry.

Initial Reactions from Industry Leaders: Balancing Optimism with Key Concerns 

Initial reactions from crucial industry organizations reveal a mix of cautious optimism and significant concerns. The National Milk Producers Federation (NMPF) showed preliminary approval, noting that USDA’s proposal incorporates many of their requested changes. On the other hand, Laurie Fischer, CEO of the American Dairy Coalition, raised concerns about the make allowance updates and the impact of extended-shelf-life milk pricing, fearing it might hurt farmers’ earnings.

Structured Engagement: Navigating the 60-Day Comment Period and Ensuing Voting Procedure

To advance its proposal, USDA will open a 60-day public comment period, allowing stakeholders and the public to share insights, concerns, and support. This process ensures that diverse voices within the dairy industry are heard and considered. Once the comment period ends, USDA will review the feedback to gain a comprehensive understanding of industry perspectives, informing the finalization of the proposal. 

Afterward, the USDA will decide based on the collected data and input. However, the process continues with a voting procedure where farmers pooled under each Federal Milk Marketing Order (FMMO) cast votes to approve or reject the proposed amendments. Each Federal Order, representing different regions, will vote individually. 

This voting process is crucial, as it directly determines the outcome of the proposed changes. For adoption, a two-thirds majority approval within each Federal Order is required. Suppose a Federal Order fails to meet this threshold. In that case, USDA may terminate the order, leading to significant changes in how milk pricing is managed in that region. This democratic approach ensures that the final policies reflect majority support within the dairy farming community, aiming for fair and sustainable outcomes.

Regional Impacts: Navigating the Complex Landscape of FMMO System Changes

The proposed changes to the Federal Milk Marketing Order (FMMO) system are bound to impact various regions differently, given each Federal Order’s unique economic landscape. Federal Order 1, covering most New England, eastern New York, New Jersey, Delaware, southeastern Pennsylvania, and most of Maryland, may benefit from more favorable fluid milk pricing due to the higher-of method. With significant urban markets, this region could see advantages from updated Class I differential values addressing the increased costs of serving these areas. 

On the other hand, Federal Order 33—encompassing western Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Indiana—might witness mixed outcomes. This area has substantial dairy manufacturing, especially in cheese and butter production, which could gain from the new cheese pricing method focusing on 40-pound cheddar blocks. However, the higher make allowance might stir controversy, potentially cutting farmers’ earnings despite adjustments for rising manufacturing costs. 

The future remains uncertain for western New York and most of Pennsylvania’s mountain counties, which any Federal Order does not cover. These areas could feel indirect effects from the new proposals, particularly the revised pricing formulas and allowances, which could impact local milk processing and producer price differentials. 

While the higher-of-pricing method may benefit farmers by securing better fluid milk prices, the regional impacts will hinge on each Federal Order’s specific economic activities and market structures. Stakeholders must examine the proposed changes closely to gauge their potential benefits and drawbacks.

The Bottom Line

The USDA’s push to reinstate the ‘higher-of’ pricing method for fluid milk marks a decisive moment for the dairy industry. The 49-day hearing in Indiana underscored the complexity of the Federal Milk Marketing Order (FMMO) System. Key aspects include reverting to the ‘higher-of’ pricing from the 2018 ‘average-of’ formula, new pricing for extended-shelf-life milk, and the debate over increased make allowances. Significant updates to pricing formulas and cheese pricing methodologies were also discussed. 

The forthcoming vote on these changes is critical. With the power to reshape financial outcomes for dairy farmers and processors, each Federal Order needs two-thirds approval to implement these changes. Balancing modern dairy policy advancements with fair profits for all stakeholders is at the heart of this discourse. 

Ultimately, these decisions will affect dairy practices’ economic landscape and sustainability nationwide. This vote is a pivotal moment in the evolution of the American dairy industry, demanding informed participation from all involved.

Key Takeaways:

  • The USDA plans to reinstate the “higher-of” method for pricing Class I (fluid) milk, reversing the “average-of” formula introduced in the 2018 Farm Bill.
  • A 332-page recommendation outlines the USDA’s proposed changes, following a comprehensive 49-day hearing in Indiana.
  • The reinstatement is anticipated to benefit farmers most of the time, though it may introduce risks like negative producer price differentials.
  • New pricing structures will affect regular fluid milk and introduce a 24-month rolling adjuster for extended-shelf-life (ESL) milk.
  • The USDA will update pricing formulas to reflect increased milk component production and adjust Class I differential values to better capture the costs of serving the fluid market.
  • There will be changes in cheese pricing, with average monthly prices based solely on 40-pound cheddar blocks.
  • The proposal also includes an increase in the make allowance for processors, a point of contention among industry stakeholders.
  • The USDA will open a 60-day public comment period before making a final decision, with each Federal Milk Marketing Order region voting individually on the proposed changes.

Summary:

The USDA plans to reintroduce the ‘higher-of’ pricing method for fluid milk, a move aimed at modernizing federal dairy policy. This method, which selects the higher price between Class III and Class IV milk, could be a significant shift for the dairy industry. The 2018 Farm Bill replaced the ‘higher-of’ system with an ‘average-of’ formula, averaging Class III and IV prices plus an additional 74 cents. This change could benefit farmers but also introduce risks like negative producer price differentials (PPDs). The Federal Milk Marketing Order (FMMO) system ensures fair and competitive dairy pricing, and the ‘higher-of’ method usually leads to higher fluid milk prices but also poses the risk of negative producer price differentials (PPDs). Negative PPDs can impact farmers’ financial stability, making it harder to predict income and manage cash flows. The 24-month rolling adjuster for extended-shelf-life milk introduces further uncertainty, potentially causing fluctuating incomes for farmers. The USDA’s proposal to increase the make allowance, a credit to dairy processors, has been met with criticism from industry leaders. The USDA will open a 60-day public comment period to advance its proposal. The proposed changes to the FMMO system will impact various regions differently due to each Federal Order’s unique economic landscape.

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USDA 2024-25 Forecast: Steady Milk Production, Rising Dairy Prices, and Beef Trends

Uncover USDA’s 2024-25 forecast: stable milk output, higher dairy prices, and beef trends. How will these affect your business and market plans?

Comprising important elements such as milk production, dairy pricing, and changing patterns, the USDA’s thorough prediction for 2024–25 presents a full picture of the dairy industry. This projection—a great tool for market analysts—has great relevance for farmers, manufacturers, and other stakeholders driving their strategic decisions.

Stable Milk Output Projections Set the Stage for Increased Exports and Rising Prices

Category202320242025
Total Milk Production (billion pounds)226.4227.3229.3
Class III Milk Price ($/cwt)17.9017.70
Class IV Milk Price ($/cwt)20.5020.10
All-Milk Price ($/cwt)21.6021.50

Since last month, the milk production forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been constant, suggesting a harmonic approach to cow inventory levels. This consistency and the expectation of higher cheese shipments have resulted in an upward estimate for commercial exports on a fat basis for 2024 while skim-solids-based exports stay the same.

The forecasts of solid worldwide demand provide a picture of the global dairy industry and drive the increasing export projections for fat and skim-solids bases. Farmers, producers, and other interested parties, including manufacturers, depend on this realization as they make plans for 2025. Driven by planned imports of butter and milk protein-containing products, import forecasts for 2024 are also on the rise; similarly, projections for 2025 show the same increases.

The recent price increases’ positive trend has helped raise the price estimates for butter, cheese, whey, and nonfat dry milk (NDM) for 2024. Milk prices in Class III and Class IV are thus rising. Furthermore, the all-milk price projection was raised to $21.60 per cwt. For those in the market, this upward trend in pricing shows encouraging signals.

Butter, cheese, and whey prices will rise as the strong demand for dairy products continues until 2025. Though the NDM forecast stays, the same, higher product costs have driven up the Class III and IV milk price projections. The predicted 2025 all-milk price these days is $21.50 per cwt.

Beef Forcast 

Looking forward to 2025, increased slaughter for outlying quarters more than offsets decreased predicted slaughter in the first quarter. These cattle will most likely be sold and killed in the second half of the year because they are put on feed in the first half. Furthermore, clothing weights are projected to stay high throughout 2025.

Given the limited cattle and beef supply, average prices for 2025 should be higher than those for 2024. With prices hitting $186 per cwt in the fourth quarter, the fed cattle price projection for 2024 was calculated at $184 per cwt. The average throughout 2023 per cwt was $175.54.

Feed Supply, Price Forecasts 

The WASDE data from the USDA provides possible information on dairy feedstuff availability and pricing:

Comparatively, the 2024-25 U.S. corn projection is the same this month compared to the previous month.

Forecasts for global coarse grain output for 2024–25 show 1.4 million tons down to 1.511 billion. Relative to last month, this month’s foreign coarse grain prognosis shows lower output, somewhat greater trading, and smaller ending stockpiles. Foreign corn output is slightly higher, rising for Ukraine and Zambia, somewhat offset by a decline in Russia.

From the May projection, the expected season-average corn price received by growers remained the same at $4.40 per bushel, down 25 cents from the 2023-24 average of $4.65 per bushel.

This month’s U.S. soybeans for 2024–25 show greater starting and ending stockpiles.

Higher starting stockpiles indicate lower crush for 2023–24, down 10 million bushels on less soybean meal.

The Bottom Line

Based on the USDA’s most recent estimates, milk output is predicted to be constant for 2024–25 despite expected price rises resulting from significant demand for dairy products. Likewise, beef output is steady, yet tighter supply might lead to more expensive goods.

Though pricing trends have dropped compared to past years, feed supply predictions for maize and soybeans reveal an unaltered view. As dairy and cattle farmers control expenses, this might provide both possibilities and problems.

Juggling consistent output, price changes, and feed expenses will be vital for the agricultural sector. Markets for dairy and beef must adapt and be creative to ensure profitability and sustainability.

Key Takeaways: 

  • Milk Production: Milk production forecasts for 2024 and 2025 remain unchanged from last month, with only slight adjustments. The 2024 production is estimated at 227.3 billion pounds, a modest increase from 2023’s total of 226.4 billion pounds.
  • Milk Prices: Price forecasts for butter, cheese, whey, and nonfat dry milk (NDM) are raised for 2024 due to recent price strength. The Class III milk price is now forecast at $17.90 per hundredweight (cwt), while Class IV is projected at $20.50 per cwt. The all-milk price is raised to $21.60 per cwt.
  • 2025 Milk Production: The production estimate for 2025 remains steady at 229.3 billion pounds. Prices for butter, cheese, and whey are expected to rise due to strong demand, while NDM prices remain stable. Class III milk is forecast at $17.70 per cwt and Class IV at $20.10 per cwt. The all-milk price for 2025 is $21.50 per cwt.
  • Beef Outlook: Beef production and average cattle prices are forecast to rise in 2025. Despite lower expected slaughter in the first quarter, increased slaughter in subsequent quarters and higher dressed weights are expected to sustain production levels.
  • Feed Supply: The 2024-25 U.S. corn outlook remains unchanged, with foreign coarse grain production slightly lower. Soybean beginning and ending stocks are projected higher, with the soybean price forecast at $11.20 per bushel. Dairy-quality alfalfa hay prices averaged $315 per ton in April.

Summary: The USDA’s 2024-25 forecast provides a comprehensive view of the dairy industry, including milk production, pricing, and changing patterns. It predicts steady milk output, increasing exports, and rising prices. The global dairy industry’s solid demand forecasts drive export projections for fat and skim-solids bases. Import forecasts for 2024 and 2025 show the same increases, driven by planned imports of butter and milk protein-containing products. The positive trend in price increases has raised milk prices in Class III and Class IV for 2024. Beef forecasts show increased slaughter for outlying quarters, while average prices for 2025 are expected to be higher than those for 2024. Balancing consistent output, price changes, and feed expenses will be crucial for the agricultural sector.

Butter Prices Surge and Plummet: A Wild Week in Dairy Markets

Discover the rollercoaster ride of butter prices this week. Why did they surge and then plummet? Dive into the latest trends and market insights in dairy.

Get ready for a wild ride in the dairy marketButter prices hit a spring high last Friday but plunged early this week, causing traders and buyers to wonder if such price jumps are sustainable. 

“Butter values plunged early this week after hitting a new high last Friday. Traders spent the long weekend debating if prices should surpass previous years when today’s production, imports, and stocks are all higher than in 2022 and 2023,” noted market analysts. 

This butter price rollercoaster impacts the broader dairy industry. From cheese to whole milk powder and whey, these price shifts affect other dairy products. In this article, we explore the latest trends and key factors shaping the dairy market’s present and future.

Dairy ProductAvg PriceQuantity Traded (4 wk Trend)
Butter$3.02449
Cheese Blocks$1.823114
Cheese Barrels$1.95508
Non-Fat Dry Milk$1.16759
Whey$0.403111

Butter Prices Tumble After New Spring High, Sending Shockwaves Through Dairy Market

After notching a new spring high last Friday, butter values plunged early this week. Buyers, driven by fears of tighter supplies and higher fall prices, initially pushed the market to new heights. However, despite strong domestic consumption and increased international demand, the current production, imports, and stocks are higher than in previous years. 

The anticipated spring flush in milk production failed to alleviate supply chain issues, adding to market volatility. Traders spent the long weekend debating whether current prices justified the recent highs. This resulted in a steep selloff on Tuesday morning as traders rushed to offload holdings, causing a brief but sharp decline in butter prices.

By Thursday, butter buyers showed renewed enthusiasm, aiming to avoid higher costs in the fall. Their robust willingness to pay $3 or more per pound lifted spot butter prices close to last Friday’s peak. Ultimately, spot butter closed the week at $3.09, reflecting strategic foresight in securing their dairy needs early.

Cheese Market Adjusts as Domestic Demand and Export Dynamics Shape Pricing Trends

The cheese market faced a notable pullback this week, driven by shifts in domestic demand and export dynamics. Retailers have boosted domestic interest by promoting lower-priced cheese bought earlier in the year, moving significant volumes. However, the balancing act between competitive pricing and strong export sales remains delicate. 

Early 2024 saw strong export activity, especially in February and March, helping to keep inventories in check. Yet, fears are growing that $2 cheese could deter future international buyers, pushing the market to find a sustainable and fluid price point. As a result, cheese is expected to stay above January through April levels, despite recent corrections. 

This week, CME spot Cheddar blocks fell 6 cents to $1.81, and barrels dropped 4 cents to $1.94, marking the market’s ongoing efforts to effectively balance supply and demand.

Mixed Results at Global Dairy Trade Pulse Auction Highlight Market Divergence

The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) Pulse auction showed mixed results. Whole milk powder (WMP) prices climbed to their highest since October 2022. Meanwhile, skim milk powder (SMP) prices dipped after last week’s gains. This highlights differing trends within the dairy sector.

Nonfat Dry Milk Prices Show Slight Dip Amid Bullish Futures Market Projections

This week, nonfat dry milk (NDM) prices dipped slightly, with CME spot NDM falling 0.75ȼ to $1.1675. Futures, however, remain bullish. June contracts hover around $1.17, but fourth-quarter futures trade in the mid-$1.20s, targeting $1.30 by early 2025. The market anticipates tighter milk supplies and reduced output, awaiting a demand-driven rally to intensify the upward trend.

Whey Market Defies Dairy Commodity Downtrend with Robust Performance and Rising Prices

Amidst a general decline in dairy commodities, the whey market has shown striking resilience. CME spot whey powder rose by 1.5ȼ this week to 41.5ȼ, hitting a two-month high. This surge is driven by robust domestic demand for high-protein whey products. Processors are focusing on these segments, reducing whey for drying and tightening supply, thereby lifting prices across the whey market.

Class IV and Class III Futures Reflect Dynamic Dairy Market Shifts and Supply Concerns

This week saw noticeable shifts in Class IV and Class III futures, driven by changes in the cheese market and broader dairy supply concerns. Class IV futures dropped, with most contracts ending about 60ȼ lower since last Friday, putting May and June contracts in the high $20s per cwt, and July to December above $21 per cwt. 

In contrast, Class III futures showed mixed results. The June Class III fell by 41ȼ to $19.47 per cwt, still an improvement for dairy producers after months of low revenues. Meanwhile, July through October contracts increased by 20 to 60ȼ, indicating market expectations for $20 milk. 

Cheese market trends are key here. Domestic demand is up, driven by retail promotions, and exports remain strong, keeping inventories stable. Yet, there’s concern about maintaining export momentum with potential $2 cheese prices. Finding a balanced price to keep products moving is critical. 

For dairy producers, these developments offer cautious optimism. Near-term futures show slight adjustments, but expectations of tighter milk supplies and higher cheese demand provide a promising outlook. The rise in Class III contracts suggests a favorable environment, backed by strong cheese demand and strategic pricing for exports.

Spring Flush and Seasonal Dynamics Raise Concerns Over Future Milk Supply Tightness

The spring flush, holiday weekend, and drop-off in school milk orders have resulted in ample milk for processors. However, higher prices signal concerns about potential rapid supply tightening. According to USDA’s Dairy Market News, milk was spread thin last summer with more tankers moving south, and a similar situation is expected in summer 2024, although overall milk access has been lighter this year than in the first half of 2023. This suggests that immediate milk abundance might be quickly offset by long-term supply constraints.

Bird Flu, Heifer Shortage, and Herd Dynamics Pose Multifaceted Challenges for 2024 Milk Production

The dairy industry is grappling with several critical issues that could disrupt milk production for the rest of the year. Key among these is the persistent bird flu, which continues to affect herds in major milk-producing states like Idaho and Michigan and is now spreading into the Northern Plains. 

Compounding the problem is the ongoing heifer shortage. Dairy producers are finding it increasingly difficult to keep their barns and bulk tanks full due to limited availability of replacement heifers. The high demand has driven up prices, leading some producers to sell any extra heifers they have, though this only temporarily eases the shortage. 

At the same time, dairy cow slaughter volumes have plummeted as producers retain low-production milk cows to maintain or grow herd sizes. While this strategy aims to increase milk output, it involves keeping less efficient cows longer, which could hinder overall growth. These challenges together create an uncertain outlook for milk production in the months ahead.

Farmers Navigate Weather Challenges to Meet Corn Planting Goals Amid Future Market Volatility

Intermittent sunshine gave farmers just enough time to catch up with the average corn planting pace. As they dodge showers and storms, some in fringe areas may switch crops, while others might opt for prevented planting insurance rather than risk fields for sub-$5 corn. The trade remains cautious, gauging the wet spring’s impact on yield and acreage. However, the moisture might be welcome as we approach a potentially hot, dry La Niña summer. Consequently, July corn futures dropped nearly 20ȼ to $4.46 per bushel, and soybean meal plummeted $21 to $364.70 per ton.

The Bottom Line

This week, the dairy market experienced significant shifts, with butter prices dropping sharply before partially recovering, reflecting ongoing volatility. Cheese prices also declined, although strong domestic demand and exports helped stabilize the market. Interestingly, whey prices bucked the trend, driven by robust demand for high-protein products. 

Looking forward, the dairy market is set for continued fluctuations. The spring flush and current weather conditions are creating short-term abundance, but concerns over milk supply tightness are already influencing pricing. The combined effects of bird flu, heifer shortages, and keeping lower-yield cows highlight the challenges for dairy producers. As these issues evolve, they will shape market dynamics throughout 2024. Stakeholders must remain vigilant and adaptable, as milk production constraints and demand pressures could test the market’s resilience.

Key Takeaways:

  • Butter prices experienced a sharp decline early in the week, following a new spring high last Friday, leading to market reassessment and volatility.
  • Cheese prices retreated due to shifts in domestic demand and concerns over the sustainability of export sales at higher price points.
  • Mixed results at the Global Dairy Trade Pulse auction highlighted market divergence, with whole milk powder values increasing and skim milk powder prices retreating.
  • Despite a slight dip in nonfat dry milk prices, futures market projections remain bullish, anticipating a rise in values due to tighter milk supplies.
  • The whey market outperformed other dairy commodities, showing robust demand and rising prices amidst an industry downtrend.
  • Class IV and Class III futures markets reflected the dynamic dairy market shifts, with fluctuations in pricing due to current supply concerns.
  • Seasonal dynamics and spring flush raised concerns over future milk supplies, as high temperatures and declining school orders impact availability.
  • Challenges such as the bird flu and heifer shortage continue to pressure 2024 milk production, complicating the supply chain and market equilibrium.
  • Farmers navigated adverse weather conditions to meet corn planting goals, reflecting broader agricultural market volatility and future crop yields’ uncertainty.
  • Overall, dairy markets faced significant price fluctuations and supply chain challenges, underlining the importance of strategic planning and market adaptation.

Summary: Butter prices reached a new spring high last Friday, but plummeted early this week, raising concerns about the sustainability of these prices. Current production, imports, and stocks are higher than in 2022 and 2023, posing challenges for dairy producers. The anticipated spring flush in milk production failed to alleviate supply chain issues, adding to market volatility. Butter buyers showed renewed enthusiasm to avoid higher costs in the fall. Spot butter closed the week at $3.09, reflecting strategic foresight in securing dairy needs early. The cheese market faced a pullback this week due to shifts in domestic demand and export dynamics. Retailers promoted lower-priced cheese bought earlier in the year, moving significant volumes. Balancing competitive pricing and strong export sales remains delicate, and fears that $2 cheese could deter future international buyers push the market to find a sustainable price point.

Milk Markets Surge Higher on Late Week Buying: Class III & IV Gain Momentum

Uncover the dynamics driving late-week surges in the milk markets. Witness the ascent of Class III and IV milk prices. Eager to learn about the latest movements in dairy and grain sectors? Continue reading.

class three milk prices

The milk markets experienced a volatile week, culminating in a significant late-week surge that notably impacted Class III and Class IV milk prices. The strength of class III milk, particularly in the latter half of the year, was a key highlight. July’s contracts saw a substantial increase of 43 cents to $20.29, while August mirrored this trend with a 46-cent climb to the same price of $20.29/cwt. In contrast, earlier months such as May and June were more subdued, with May closing at $18.60 and June showing a minimal increase of just 2 cents to $19.38/cwt. 

Market analysts observed, “The late-week buying frenzy brought a refreshing upswing to the milk markets, particularly benefiting Class III prices in the latter months of the year.” 

Class IV milk prices demonstrated a more tempered response, maintaining stability despite a modest gain in butter prices. May’s contracts settled at $20.57, June at $20.84, and July reached $21.31/cwt. These figures underscore the nuanced variations within the different milk classes, reflecting broader market dynamics and investor sentiment.

Class III Milk Prices Enjoy Summer Surge Amid Subdued Early-Year Performance

DateMayJuneJulyAugust
Monday$18.60$19.36$19.86$19.83
Tuesday$18.60$19.37$19.96$19.94
Wednesday$18.60$19.38$20.09$20.05
Thursday$18.60$19.38$20.15$20.15
Friday$18.60$19.38$20.29$20.29

Class III milk experienced a notable improvement in the latter part of the year. July increased by 43 cents to reach $20.29 per hundredweight (cwt), while August followed with a rise of 46 cents, also hitting $20.29/cwt. In contrast, May ended at $18.60, showing little change, and June gained just 2 cents to close at $19.38/cwt. These numbers highlight a clear seasonal trend, with more robust market dynamics emerging in the summer months for Class III milk.

Class IV Milk Market Remains Steady Amid Modest Butter Price Gains 

FutureMayJuneJuly
Monday$20.57$20.84$21.31
Tuesday$20.57$20.84$21.31
Wednesday$20.57$20.84$21.31
Thursday$20.57$20.84$21.31
Friday$20.57$20.84$21.31

The week in the dairy market has displayed notable shifts, particularly in the Class IV milk futures. Despite the muted movement, the overall trend leans toward stability with a few upward adjustments compensating for earlier lukewarm phases. For a clearer illustration, let’s delve into the Class IV milk futures trends over the past week: 

Class IV milk prices remained steady compared to Class III, showing minimal volatility. Class IV milk held its ground despite a modest 6-cent rise in butter prices. May closed at $20.57/cwt, June slightly up at $20.84, and July continued this trend at $21.31. These figures highlight a consistent market with gradual gains, reflecting the steady performance of Class IV milk.

The CME Spot Trade Closes the Week with Significant Activity in the Dairy

ProductMondayTuesdayWednesdayThursdayFridayWeekly Trend
Butter ($/lb)$3.03$3.04$3.05$3.07$3.09▲6 cents
Cheddar Blocks ($/lb)$1.81$1.81$1.81$1.81$1.81
Cheddar Barrels ($/lb)$1.94$1.94$1.94$1.94$1.94
Dry Whey ($/lb)$0.41$0.41$0.41$0.41$0.41 1/2▲1/2 cent
Grade A Non Fat Dry Milk ($/lb)$1.16$1.16$1.16$1.16$1.16 3/4▲3/4 cent

The CME spot trade saw significant action in the dairy sector, especially in the butter and cheese markets. Butter prices rose 6 cents to $3.09 per pound, hinting at increased demand or limited supply, which could positively impact the broader dairy market. 

Cheddar cheese prices remained stable, with Blocks at $1.81 and Barrels at $1.94 per pound. This consistency suggests a balanced market without primary surpluses or deficits. 

The block/barrel spread stayed inverted at 13 cents, indicating supply concerns or quality preferences. Typically, Blocks are pricier due to their broader use and better quality. The sustained average price of $1.87 1/2 per pound reflects the market’s effort to balance these differences, providing insight into future price trends in the dairy sector.

Powder Markets Show Promise with Incremental Price Gains

ProductPrice (per lb)ChangeTrend
Dry Whey$0.41½+1 centUp
Grade A Non Fat Dry Milk$1.16¾+½ centUp

The powder markets exhibited a solid performance this past week, signaling promise in this sector. Dry Whey climbed by a penny to $0.41 1/2 per pound, indicating a steady demand. This rise may suggest market stability amid fluctuating dairy prices. 

Grade A Non-Fat Dry Whey also increased by 1/2 cent, reaching $1.16 3/4 per pound. This small but significant uptick reflects the strength of the dairy industry and hints at a balanced supply and demand. These incremental gains not only reinforce market stability but also inspire confidence in the potential growth of the powder markets, which could have broader economic implications for those invested in commodities.

Grain and Feed Markets Reflect Broader Economic and Environmental Instabilities

CommodityContract MonthClosing PricePrice Change
CornJuly$4.46 1/4Down 2 1/2 cents
SoybeansJuly$12.05Down 4 3/4 cents
Soybean MealJuly$364.10/tonUp $1.10
WheatJuly$6.78Down 2 1/2 cents
RiceJuly$17.67Down 16 cents
Feeder CattleAugust$256.40Down $2.67

The grain and feed markets faced a notable shift towards the weekend, marked by varied price movements across critical commodities. Corn slipped slightly, with July futures closing at $4.46 1/4, down 2 1/2 cents. This minor dip mirrors broader market trends where corn battles to sustain momentum amid changing demand-supply dynamics. Soybeans followed suit, with July futures dropping 4 3/4 cents to $12.05 per bushel, reflecting ongoing market volatility and the impact of trade conditions and weather on crop yields. 

Despite a modest rise in soybean meal prices, the feed markets remained complex. July prices increased by $1.10, finishing the week at $364.10 per ton. However, prices remained over $25 per ton below earlier weekly highs, underscoring the intricate and volatile nature of the feed markets. These shifts serve as a reminder of the need for caution in the grain and feed sectors, mirroring the broader economic and environmental uncertainties.

The Bottom Line

The week concluded with a notable rise in milk markets, spurred by a robust late-week surge in Class III milk. Gains in July and August highlighted its strength, contrasting a quieter early-year performance. Class IV milk displayed a steadiness, with modest butter price increases

Significant activity marked the CME spot trade, with butter and cheese showing price movements and powder markets finishing the week with gains. In contrast, grain and feed markets slid into the weekend, impacted by economic and environmental challenges. Corn, soybeans, and soybean meal exhibited varied performances, reflecting the intricate dynamics of agricultural markets.

Key Takeaways:

  • Class III milk prices experienced an encouraging surge in late-week trading, showing notable gains for July and August contracts.
  • Earlier months like May and June saw more modest price movements, with minimal increases observed.
  • Class IV milk prices remained relatively stable, with slight upward adjustments despite varied commodity performance within the dairy market.
  • The CME spot trade highlighted a 6-cent gain in Butter prices, while Cheddar Blocks and Barrels maintained their previous levels, keeping the block/barrel spread inverted.
  • Powder markets closed the week on a positive note, with Dry Whey and Grade A Non-Fat Dry Whey inching upward.
  • Grain and feed markets displayed downward trends, with slight declines in corn and soybeans and a notable drop in soybean meal from earlier highs.

Summary: The milk markets experienced a volatile week, culminating in a late-week surge that significantly impacted Class III and Class IV milk prices. Class III milk experienced a significant improvement in the latter part of the year, with July’s contracts seeing a substantial increase of 43 cents to $20.29, and August mirrored this trend with a 46-cent climb to the same price. In contrast, earlier months such as May and June were more subdued, with May closing at $18.60 and June showing a minimal increase of just 2 cents to $19.38/cwt. Market analysts observed that the late-week buying frenzy brought a refreshing upswing to the milk markets, particularly benefiting Class III prices in the latter months of the year. The dairy market displayed notable shifts, particularly in Class IV milk futures, with the overall trend leaning toward stability with a few upward adjustments compensating for earlier lukewarm phases.

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