Wednesday’s cash dairy prices painted a mixed picture, keeping dairy farmers and industry professionals on their toes. 

Let’s break down the day’s movements so you can keep your strategy sharp: 

• Dry Whey: Dropped by $0.0050, settling at $0.5650, with only one sale recorded.
• 40-Pound Cheese Blocks: Saw a slight increase of $0.0150, reaching $2.23, based on one sale.
• Cheese Barrels: Down by $0.01, ending at $2.25, with one sale recorded.
• Butter: Decreased by $0.0050 to $3.1475, with no sales recorded.
• Nonfat Dry Milk: Edged up by $0.0125, closing at $1.3550, with two sales at different prices ($1.35 and $1.3550).

With spot cheese largely stable this week after last week’s quick rally, buy-side enthusiasm cooled on Wednesday. Spot block cheese did push 1.5 cents higher on one trade to a new 2024 high price but was tempered by an unfilled offer and the price of barrel cheese falling a penny on one trade. 

The reasons for the above $2.00 cheese price (less cheddar production, improved summer demand, tighter milk supplies) remain intact. But buyers are quieter this week at both the exchange and anecdotally. While supply side data is bullish, demand still gets a vote. It’s too early to say we’ve entered a lower demand period, but spot cheese has been unstable lately, and that dynamic seems to be ongoing. 

Futures markets have been active this week with open interest rising on up and down moves. Speculators, both large and small, are long on Class III and Cheese, continuing to trade from the long side. Producer selling is not as heavy as expected, despite excellent Q4 farm margins, but they’ve been active this week. 

Big bull markets always grab attention, and the daily volumes in Class III (and to a lesser extent cheese) illustrate that. Nearby Class III and Cheese are set to start lower today, following yesterday’s weaker close, as the market braces for some spot weakness. 

Headline milk production in July was down 0.4%, but when adjusted for components and bottled milk, the solids available for processing were up 1.1% from last year. With tighter cheese supplies, it’s assumed cheese production improved from -1.4% YoY in June to +0.9% in July. More milk went into cheese, leaving less for butter, with butter production in July forecast up 1.5% YoY compared to 2.8% in June. Combined NFDM+SMP production is forecast to drop 14.7%, similar to June’s 15.5% drop. High protein WPC/WPI production remained strong, with solids shifted out of dry whey and low protein WPC. 

Spot butter has traded slightly weaker since hitting a new 2024 high last week. Prices dipped just ½ cent yesterday with no trades, but futures saw strong volumes of 545 contracts, with open interest rising by 223 contracts. Most of this was due to a Jan-Jun futures pack trading 50x/month @ 289, a new high as 2025 contracts have traded slightly higher recently. The range-bound nature of spot butter, making new highs while doing so, fuels appetite to buy deferred futures as milk production expectations play out for the rest of the year. 

Spot nonfat traded 1.25 cents higher on two trades to 1.355, hitting another 2024 high. Futures volumes have been steady this week, with 191 contracts traded yesterday and open interest rising by 98 contracts. Even with spot prices pushing higher, futures have recently consolidated near last week’s highs. Prices were mixed to lower into 2025. Despite bullish US fundamentals and stronger exports to Mexico, the market probably needed a breather after a roughly 10 cents rally over 3-4 weeks.

Daily CME Cash Dairy Product Prices ($/lb.)

 Weekly CME Cash Dairy Product Prices ($/lb.)

 CME Futures Settlement Prices

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