Want to stay ahead in the dairy industry? Check out our weekly recap on global dairy market shifts for the week ending Sept 23, 2024.

Summary:

Another volatile week in global dairy markets has ended, featuring significant price movements and production shifts that are critical to monitor. The CME cash market saw barrel prices surge while block prices faltered, and butter prices took a steep dive, impacting butterfat prices across the board. The USDA’s August Milk Production report highlights a slight decline in U.S. milk production, with regional variations pointing to strategic adjustments needed in specific states. Meanwhile, the Global Dairy Trade (GDT) index experienced a modest uplift as European butter hit a five-year high and New Zealand’s August milk collection surged by 9%, underlining the importance of staying informed in today’s ever-fluctuating market environment.

Key Takeaways:

• Butter prices on the CME dropped significantly, hinting at a potential peak and future declines in butterfat prices.
• USDA’s August Milk Production report shows a slight year-to-year decline in milk production and cow numbers in the United States.
• The Global Dairy Trade index rose by 0.8%, driven by gains in Cheddar, lactose, mozzarella, and milk powders, while fat-based commodities fell.
• EEX futures experienced varied activity, with butter showing slight gains and SMP declining by 1.7%.
• SGX futures saw high trading volumes, with WMP prices rising by 1.5% and other commodities showing minor changes.
• EU dairy quotations reached new highs, particularly in the butter market, reflecting a positive trend over the past eight weeks.
• European cheese indices continued their upward trend with significant year-over-year increases across all varieties.
• New Zealand reported a 9.0% year-to-year increase in August milk collections, indicating robust dairy production growth.
• France observed a 1.3% rise in July milk production, while Germany and Belgium showed mixed results, with some declines in milk production but gains in cheese and specific dairy products.

This week, the CME cash market experienced significant volatility, a development of utmost importance to all industry professionals. Swings in butter prices affected butterfat pricing across federal milk marketing orders, and there were notable changes in USDA milk production statistics, all of which demand our immediate attention.

Here’s a snapshot of what we’ll cover in this update: 

• Dramatic changes in butter and butterfat prices
• Key insights from the USDA’s August Milk Production report
• Global Dairy Trade index fluctuations and what they mean for you
• European market performance, including EEX and EU Quotations
• Milk collection data from New Zealand, France, Germany, and Belgium

So, let’s analyze the most critical dairy industry trends worldwide for the week ending September 22, 2024.

Global Dairy Markets: A Week of Contrasts – Gains and Declines for September 23rd, 2024

Market	Product	Price Movement	Volume Traded	Average Price
CME Cash Market	Butter	-16 ¢/lb	N/A	$3/lb
EEX Futures	Butter	+0.5%	1,435 tonnes	€7,725
EEX Futures	SMP	-1.7%	1,200 tonnes	€2,680
SGX Futures	WMP	+1.5%	8,157 tonnes	$3,518
SGX Futures	SMP	-0.1%	6,316 tonnes	$2,926
EU Quotations	Butter	+1.5%	N/A	€8,067
EU Quotations	SMP	+0.9%	N/A	€2,610
GDT Auction	WMP	+1.5%	38,814 tonnes	$3,448
GDT Auction	SMP	+2.2%	38,814 tonnes	$2,809
New Zealand	Milk Production	+9.0% y/y	1,418kt	N/A
France	Milk Production	+1.3% y/y	1.94 million tonnes	N/A

The worldwide dairy market saw a combination of profits and losses for the week ending September 23, 2024. Notably, barrel cheese prices rose on the CME cash market, but block prices declined. Butter prices fell sharply, echoing a larger pattern of dropping butter futures, indicating that traders feel the top has been achieved.

US milk output fell somewhat nationwide and in the top 24 dairy states, continuing a pattern of declining cow numbers year after year. This is consistent with broader trends seen in the EU and Oceania.

The Global Dairy Trade index rose by 0.8% globally, with noteworthy price rises for cheddar cheese, skim, and whole milk powder. However, fat-based dairy commodities such as AMF and butter saw reductions. These fluctuations are influenced by various factors, including global demand, production levels, and geopolitical events, which we will delve into in this report.

The European dairy markets were more cheerful, with price rises across a wide range of dairy goods, particularly butter and cheese. This indicates high demand and possible supply restrictions.

The EEX Butter futures index gained marginally in futures trading, while SMP fell, showing that traders’ confidence levels varied. In contrast, SGX trading activity remained stable, with slight rises in WMP.

Due to shifting pricing, production changes, and geographical differences, the dairy business has problems and possibilities.

CME Cash Market: Turbulence and Trends That Demand Your Attention

Commodity	Price Change	Weekly Average Price
Barrel Cheese	+15¢/lb	$2.25/lb
Block Cheese	-7¢/lb	$2.50/lb
Butter	-16¢/lb	$2.80/lb

The CME cash market fluctuated significantly last week, paving the way for significant changes in the dairy industry. Barrel prices rose again, maintaining a pattern that many have carefully followed. In contrast, block prices declined, indicating a split in the cheese market that might indicate differing supply and demand dynamics within various product categories.

The most noticeable change was the substantial decrease in cash butter costs, which decreased roughly 16¢ per pound. This move is critical for the business since butter prices affect butterfat pricing in all four Federal Milk Marketing Orders (FMMO) classes. The six-month strip of butter futures has also fallen sharply, indicating that traders feel butter prices have peaked.

But how does this affect butterfat prices? Even though the average butterfat price is still about $3 per pound, which is historically high, the recent dip indicates a sustained fall in the coming months. Producers should prepare for a possibly less favorable market scenario. It is critical to keep current on market developments and alter strategy appropriately to limit the effect of pricing shifts.

USDA August Milk Production Report: Regional Trends and Strategic Implications

Last week, the USDA issued its August Milk Production report, a document of immense value to the dairy industry. It provides crucial insights into the dairy business, including the revised July milk output for the 24 central states, which was 18.2 billion pounds, a 0.3% decrease from July 2023. August output in all 50 states was estimated at 18.815 billion pounds, a 0.1% decrease from the previous year.

When comparing month-to-month statistics, July milk output was revised by 1 million pounds, while August production levels remained comparable with the revised July values. The number of milk cows nationally was 9.325 million, 40,000 less than last year but constant from last month, indicating a steady but shrinking herd.

Diving deeper into regional trends, seven states among the 24 reported year-to-year increases in cow numbers, with South Dakota and Texas notably adding more than 10,000 cows each. The data also highlighted a regional dichotomy, which can be attributed to climate, local regulations, and market conditions. 

• The Western States saw marked declines in production in New Mexico and Arizona, whereas California posted an increase. 
• All states—Kansas, South Dakota, and Texas—registered production growth in the central region. 
• Milk production dropped significantly in the Corn Belt states, especially Illinois, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. 
• Northeast states reported declines, with Vermont experiencing a sharp 5.1% reduction.
• Florida and Georgia production remained stable in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast regions, while Virginia saw a significant 4.2% drop.  

The USDA statistics reveal a complicated picture with differing patterns across areas, emphasizing the need for farmers to adapt their tactics to local circumstances and broader market changes. This adaptability is not just a strategy but a necessity in the ever-changing dairy industry.

Regional Milk Production Insights 

State	Milk Production (Million lbs)	Change from August 2023 (%)
California	3,700	+0.5%
Wisconsin	2,640	-1.0%
New York	1,370	-2.0%
Idaho	1,332	+1.0%
Texas	1,280	+3.0%

Western Region: Milk output fell significantly in New Mexico and Arizona, whereas California witnessed an increase. The remaining states in this area were reasonably stable. It is critical to carefully monitor New Mexico and Arizona since their declines may indicate more significant concerns in the Western dairy industry.

Central Region: This area had favorable development, with all states (Kansas, South Dakota, and Texas) reporting increasing output. Notably, South Dakota and Texas each acquired more than 10,000 cows, indicating a significant increase in dairy operations. These states are making substantial contributions to national milk production.

Corn Belt: Milk output has generally dropped in this area, with notable losses in Illinois, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. This pattern may suggest feed supply issues or growing production costs. Producers in the Corn Belt may need to reconsider their approaches to overcoming these obstacles.

Northeast: All three states in this area had a decrease in milk output. Vermont suffered the most substantial dip at -5.1%, resulting in an 11 million-pound loss. This significant decline raises worries about the sustainability of dairy production in the Northeast in the present climate.

Mid-Atlantic: Virginia reported a significant 4.2% reduction in milk output, which might be attributed to regional market constraints or economic issues dairy producers face. It contrasts sharply with the stability witnessed in surrounding states.

Southeast: Florida and Georgia maintained constant milk production levels. This consistency demonstrates the robustness of dairy operations in the Southeast, but monitoring any future developments that may disrupt this equilibrium is essential.

GDT Auction Insights: Navigating Through Gains and Declines 

The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auction on September 17 produced mixed results for numerous dairy commodities. The GDT index rose by 0.8%, resulting in an average winning price of $3,883. This slight rise reflects a cautiously hopeful market outlook. WMP (Whole Milk Powder) led the group with a 1.5% index uplift, resulting in an average price of $3,448. Interestingly, the Fonterra WMP-Regular forward curve showed a backwardation trend, with a $270 gap between C1 and C3. Despite the overall rising trend, not all dairy commodities performed similarly. AMF (Anhydrous Milk Fat) and butter had small reductions of 1.2% and 1.7%, respectively. This decline might indicate a change in taste for different dairy fats or a transient supply-demand mismatch.

In contrast, SMP (Skim Milk Powder) had a 2.2% rise, reaching an average of $2,809. This increase is also reflected in Fonterra’s NZ Medium Heat forward curve, which shows a relatively flat contango. Cheese and mozzarella had notable growth rates of 2.9% and 4.5%, respectively. With cheddar fetching an average price of $4,441 and mozzarella fetching $5,351, these improvements highlight the strong demand and perhaps limited supply in these categories. Lactose witnessed a solid 3.5% increase, reaching an average of $896. The GDT auction witnessed considerable participation, with 38,814 tons sold and 185 bidders participating. This high level of interaction, along with the subtle price swings across many commodities, provides significant knowledge for dairy farmers and industry experts as they navigate this uncertain market scenario.

EEX Futures: Butter Leads While SMP Treads Cautiously 

In EEX futures trading, 2,635 tons were exchanged during the last week across several dairy commodities. Butter futures were the most active category, with 1,435 tonnes changing hands, followed by SMP (skim milk powder), which traded 1,200 tons. Thursday was particularly busy, with 1,350 tons of dairy contracts moved in a single day.

Butter futures showed some dispersion across contract durations. The average price for the Sep24-Apr25 strip climbed 0.5% to €7,725. Traders are bullish about butter’s short-term performance. Still, caution should be used due to recent volatility in cash market pricing.

In contrast, SMP futures declined. The average price for the September 24-April 25 declined by 1.7% to €2,680. This reduction indicates dealers’ cautious stance on future skim milk powder demand.

Whey futures were essentially constant. The average price throughout the September 24-April 25 period showed no notable fluctuation and held its position. This steadiness might reflect a balanced market attitude for whey, with no significant bullish or negative tendencies.

While there is some optimism for butter, cautious trade in SMP and stability in whey reflect a more nuanced view of dairy futures. Market players must monitor these developments when developing their plans.

SGX Futures Surge: High Trading Volumes Define the Week

SGX futures saw a busy week, with 14,958 tons changing hands. WMP showed strong demand, with 8,157 lots traded, representing a tiny but noticeable 1.5% rise, bringing the average price to $3,518. SMP activity was again robust, with 6,316 lots traded, albeit prices fell by 0.1% to an average of $2,926. The AMF futures market was flat, with 300 lots traded, holding the average price at $6,947. Butter futures witnessed the action, with 185 lots traded, but the news wasn’t good for everyone—prices fell by 1.1%, bringing the average price to $6,525.

EU Dairy Quotations: Butter Hits 5-Year High Amid Market Volatility 

Analyzing the monthly fluctuations in EU dairy prices shows some intriguing tendencies. Butter prices jumped significantly, rising €117 (+1.5%) to €8,067, a five-year high. Key markets reflected this increase: Dutch butter increased €50 (+0.6%) to €8,100, French butter rose €100 (+1.3%) to €7,950, and German butter jumped €200 (+2.5%) to €8,150. Butter has risen by €1,402 in the previous eight weeks, reaching €3,557 (+78.9%) over last year’s levels.

Skim Milk Powder (SMP) has likewise seen an increase of €22 (+0.9%), reaching €2,610. The improvements were led by Dutch SMP, which increased €30 (+1.2%) to €2,600, and French SMP, which increased €50 (+1.9%) to €2,620. However, the German SMP quote declined by €15 (-0.6%) to €2,610. SMP prices have risen by €275 in the past eight weeks, reaching €373 (+16.7%) over the previous year.

Whey prices followed suit, rising by €30 (+3.7%) to €842. Dutch whey rose €10 (+1.1%) to €890, German whey rose €30 (+3.8%) to €815, and French whey jumped €50 (+6.5%) to €820. Whey’s average price is currently €162 (+23.8%) higher yearly.

Whole Milk Powder (WMP) also increased, up €103 (+2.4%) to €4,372. The German WMP quote rose €50 (+1.1%) to €4,475, the French quotation surged €230 (+5.7%) to €4,260, and the Dutch WMP rose €30 (+0.7%) to €4,380. WMP’s consistent ascent demonstrates its strong market position.

These considerable price changes for butter, SMP, whey, and WMP indicate a dynamic and turbulent EU dairy market, reflecting regional demand swings and broader economic considerations.

European Cheese Market: Surging Indices Signal Strong Recovery and Confidence

Last week, the European cheese market showed a positive outlook, with rises in all four main cheese indexes. Cheddar curd led with a stunning rise of €218 (+4.5%), propelling the index to €5,063—this significant year-over-year increase of 38.6% demonstrates a robust demand rebound. Similarly, mild cheddar exhibited upward momentum, rising €185 (+3.8%) to €5,078. Prices for mild cheddar have risen 36.9% yearly, indicating strong market confidence.

Young Gouda did not trail far behind, climbing by €118 (+2.5%) to €4,784. This raises its yearly growth to 35.8%, highlighting customer demand for this versatile cheese. Meanwhile, mozzarella prices increased by €136 (+2.9%) to €4,789. Mozzarella has grown 40.6% yearly, owing to its broad use in the retail and food service industries.

The European cheese market showed a solid upward trend across all indices, indicating high demand and excellent market circumstances.

New Zealand Dairy Production Surges: August Milk Collection Up by 9%

In August, New Zealand’s milk collection was 1,418kt, a 9.0% rise yearly. The output total for the 2024 season is 1,956kt, a 7.7% increase over the previous season. Milk solids (MS) output increased by 10.0% year on year in August, reaching 123.8 million kgMS. Milk solids output in 2024 has totaled 967 million kg, up 1.2% yearly, with season-to-date milk solids at 171.59 million kg, up 8.3% yearly. These figures show a significant increase in liquid milk and milk solids output in New Zealand, demonstrating significant development and productivity in the dairy industry.

French Milk Production Data: Analyzing July’s Figures and Year-over-Year Trends 

French milk output increased by 1.3% in July compared to the previous year, totaling 1.94 million tons. This strong pace brings the total milk collection for 2024 to 14.38 million tons, up 1.3% yearly.

In July, 139,000 tons of milk solids were collected, with a fat content of 3.95% and a protein content of 3.21%, representing a 1.4% rise from the year before. Consequently, total milk solid collections for 2024 are currently 1.06 million tons, representing a 1.1% increase over the previous year.

These numbers show a strong and consistent increase trend in French milk production in both volume and quality. Dairy producers in France are reporting increased production, indicating possibilities for increasing milk processing and transport capacities. As the year proceeds, it is critical to watch whether these patterns continue since they provide a solid platform for future strategic planning for dairy.

Germany’s July Dairy Metrics: Butter and Cheese Shine Amidst Mixed Production Trends

According to BZL, Germany produced 2.77 million tons of milk in July, a 1.3% decline from the previous year. Despite the July fall, total milk output for 2024 remained stable at 19.40 million tons, the same year on year.

Butter production in July was up 2.9% year on year, reaching 38 thousand tons. However, annual butter output fell by 0.7% to 294 thousand tons.

On the SMP (Skim Milk Powder) front, July showed a slight increase of 0.3% year on year, totaling 26 thousand tons. However, SMP output fell 6.9% in 2024 to 206 thousand tons.

The cheese industry fared better, with a 2.3% year-over-year gain in July, reaching 214.5 thousand tons. Overall, cheese output increased by 3.3% yearly to 1.49 million tons.

Although German milk output fell slightly in July, the dairy industry exhibited diverse product trends. Butter and cheese output increased, but total SMP production decreased significantly, indicating subtle adjustments in the business.

Belgium’s Dairy Metrics: July Sees Decline, But Year-to-Date Trends Inspire Optimism

In July, Belgium produced 396,000 tons of milk, a 1.0% decrease from the previous year. Despite the month’s fall, total milk output in 2024 is 2.81 million tons, representing a 0.8% gain yearly. Milk fat content was 4.02%, with protein level being 3.36%. This resulted in a July milk solid collection of 29,000 tons, representing a 1.1% decline year over year. However, total milk solid collections for the year reached 215,000 tons, down 0.4% from the previous year. These results provide a complex picture of Belgian milk production, with generally favorable increases in cumulative indicators despite volatility in monthly data.

The Bottom Line

What does all of this imply for you, a dairy industry professional? Let us break it down.

This week’s market activity was a rollercoaster: CME cash markets experienced volatility, with butter and barrel prices bouncing like a seesaw. The USDA’s Milk Output Report revealed a modest reduction in total milk output and herd size, while some areas showed hopeful increases. Internationally, both EEX and SGX futures showed a variety of performance tendencies, with butter outperforming other items despite more volatility.

Exchange trading and EU dairy quotes mirrored this up-and-down pattern, with butter prices reaching new highs and Skim Milk Powder and whey showing mixed tendencies. Meanwhile, New Zealand’s milk output has increased dramatically, indicating a potential trend for global milk gathering.

However, with these modifications, planning your next move becomes more complex. You’ll need to consider how these swings may affect your business carefully. Is it time to plan for probable butterfat price declines? How do trade volume spikes affect your supply chain decisions? Do regional milk production patterns in your area resemble the national landscape?

As you negotiate the constantly shifting dairy market, these are essential questions to ask. Staying informed is critical. Monitor future developments and market evaluations to create data-driven judgments consistent with the changing industry.

Remember that your foresight and agility might be the difference between surviving and excelling in this volatile world.

Stay tuned for further insights and analysis as we discuss recent dairy industry trends and statistics.

Learn more:

• Mid-Year 2024 Global Dairy Business Review: Key Developments from January to June
• Global Dairy Market Trends July 2024: Australia’s Rise as Argentina and New Zealand Face Challenges
• Slow Global Dairy Price Recovery Anticipated, Rabobank Analysis Shows: Unpacking the Market Trends

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