Archive for cash dairy prices

CME Dairy Market Update: Mixed Cash Prices for Cheese, Butter, and Dry Milk

Wednesday’s cash dairy prices painted a mixed picture, keeping dairy farmers and industry professionals on their toes. 

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Let’s break down the day’s movements so you can keep your strategy sharp: 

  • Dry Whey: Dropped by $0.0050, settling at $0.5650, with only one sale recorded.
  • 40-Pound Cheese Blocks: Saw a slight increase of $0.0150, reaching $2.23, based on one sale.
  • Cheese Barrels: Down by $0.01, ending at $2.25, with one sale recorded.
  • Butter: Decreased by $0.0050 to $3.1475, with no sales recorded.
  • Nonfat Dry Milk: Edged up by $0.0125, closing at $1.3550, with two sales at different prices ($1.35 and $1.3550).

With spot cheese largely stable this week after last week’s quick rally, buy-side enthusiasm cooled on Wednesday. Spot block cheese did push 1.5 cents higher on one trade to a new 2024 high price but was tempered by an unfilled offer and the price of barrel cheese falling a penny on one trade. 

The reasons for the above $2.00 cheese price (less cheddar production, improved summer demand, tighter milk supplies) remain intact. But buyers are quieter this week at both the exchange and anecdotally. While supply side data is bullish, demand still gets a vote. It’s too early to say we’ve entered a lower demand period, but spot cheese has been unstable lately, and that dynamic seems to be ongoing. 

Futures markets have been active this week with open interest rising on up and down moves. Speculators, both large and small, are long on Class III and Cheese, continuing to trade from the long side. Producer selling is not as heavy as expected, despite excellent Q4 farm margins, but they’ve been active this week. 

Big bull markets always grab attention, and the daily volumes in Class III (and to a lesser extent cheese) illustrate that. Nearby Class III and Cheese are set to start lower today, following yesterday’s weaker close, as the market braces for some spot weakness. 

Headline milk production in July was down 0.4%, but when adjusted for components and bottled milk, the solids available for processing were up 1.1% from last year. With tighter cheese supplies, it’s assumed cheese production improved from -1.4% YoY in June to +0.9% in July. More milk went into cheese, leaving less for butter, with butter production in July forecast up 1.5% YoY compared to 2.8% in June. Combined NFDM+SMP production is forecast to drop 14.7%, similar to June’s 15.5% drop. High protein WPC/WPI production remained strong, with solids shifted out of dry whey and low protein WPC. 

Spot butter has traded slightly weaker since hitting a new 2024 high last week. Prices dipped just ½ cent yesterday with no trades, but futures saw strong volumes of 545 contracts, with open interest rising by 223 contracts. Most of this was due to a Jan-Jun futures pack trading 50x/month @ 289, a new high as 2025 contracts have traded slightly higher recently. The range-bound nature of spot butter, making new highs while doing so, fuels appetite to buy deferred futures as milk production expectations play out for the rest of the year. 

Spot nonfat traded 1.25 cents higher on two trades to 1.355, hitting another 2024 high. Futures volumes have been steady this week, with 191 contracts traded yesterday and open interest rising by 98 contracts. Even with spot prices pushing higher, futures have recently consolidated near last week’s highs. Prices were mixed to lower into 2025. Despite bullish US fundamentals and stronger exports to Mexico, the market probably needed a breather after a roughly 10 cents rally over 3-4 weeks.

Daily CME Cash Dairy Product Prices ($/lb.)

 FinalChange ¢/lb.TradesBidsOffers
Butter3.1475-0.5023
Cheddar Block2.231.5101
Cheddar Barrel2.25-1100
NDM Grade A1.3551.25262
Dry Whey0.565-0.5121

 Weekly CME Cash Dairy Product Prices ($/lb.)

 TueWedCurrent Avg.Prior Week Avg.Weekly Volume
Butter3.15253.14753.153.18213
Cheddar Block2.2152.232.22252.1282
Cheddar Barrel2.262.252.2552.21152
NDM Grade A1.34251.3551.34881.31158
Dry Whey0.570.5650.56750.56052

 CME Futures Settlement Prices

 TueWed
Class III (SEP) $/CWT.22.5422.6
Class IV (SEP) $/CWT.22.5122.38
Cheese (SEP) $/LB.2.2132.219
Blocks (SEP)$/LB.2.1352.135
Dry Whey (SEP) $/LB.0.53280.5285
NDM (SEP) $/LB.1.27751.29
Butter (SEP) $/LB.3.1653.17
Corn (SEP) $/BU.3.85253.9125
Corn (DEC) $/BU.4.094.13
Soybeans (SEP) $/BU.9.961.005
Soybeans (NOV) $/BU.1.0151.0275
Soybean Meal (SEP) $/TON320323.3
Soybean Meal (DEC) $/TON321.1328.6
Live Cattle (OCT) $/CWT.179.53179.18

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Prices Mostly Higher Tuesday at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange

Dairy prices update, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Cash dairy prices, Dry whey price, Cheese block prices, Cheese barrel prices, Butter prices trend, Nonfat dry milk prices, Dairy market analysis, Dairy product trading

Tuesday brought some exciting changes in cash dairy prices on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange that might catch your attention.  Dry whey saw a slight uptick, rising $0.01 to $0.57. This wasn’t just a blip; a recorded sale at that price supported it.  Consistency in these minor gains can significantly boost your revenue over time.

But there’s more. Forty-pound cheese blocks edged up by a modest $0.0050, now sitting at $2.2150. Again, one sale was recorded at that new price point, showing that demand remains steady. 

  • Dry whey: Up $0.01 to $0.57
  • Cheese blocks: Up $0.0050 to $2.2150
  • Cheese barrels: Unchanged at $2.26
  • Butter: Down $0.0175 to $3.1525
  • Nonfat dry milk: Up $0.0125 to $1.3425

It’s not all rosy, though. Butter prices slipped by $0.0175, settling at $3.1525 across thirteen recorded sales. This dip might be a downer, but informed decisions come from knowing all the details.

Daily CME Cash Dairy Product Prices ($/lb.)

 FinalChange ¢/lb.TradesBidsOffers
Butter3.1525-1.751326
Cheddar Block2.2150.5100
Cheddar Barrel2.26NC101
NDM Grade A1.34251.25632
Dry Whey0.571120

Weekly CME Cash Dairy Product Prices ($/lb.)

 MonTueWedThurFriCurrent Avg.Prior Week Avg.Weekly Volume
Butter3.15253.15253.18213
Cheddar Block2.2152.2152.1281
Cheddar Barrel2.262.262.21151
NDM Grade A1.34251.34251.31156
Dry Whey0.570.570.56051

 CME Futures Settlement Prices

 MonTue
Class III (SEP) $/CWT.022.54
Class IV (SEP) $/CWT.022.51
Cheese (SEP) $/LB.02.213
Blocks (SEP)$/LB.02.135
Dry Whey (SEP) $/LB.00.5328
NDM (SEP) $/LB.01.2775
Butter (SEP) $/LB.03.165
Corn (SEP) $/BU.03.8525
Corn (DEC) $/BU.04.09
Soybeans (SEP) $/BU.09.96
Soybeans (NOV) $/BU.01.015
Soybean Meal (SEP) $/TON0320
Soybean Meal (DEC) $/TON0321.1
Live Cattle (OCT) $/CWT.0179.53

Dairy Future Markets Start the Week Higher at the CME

How will this week’s dairy price surge impact your farm? Are you ready for changes in milk futures and crop conditions? Keep reading to stay informed.

Summary: The dairy market saw steady to higher cash prices on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) with butter and nonfat dry milk seeing minor increases while cheese prices stayed steady. The September Class III futures contract rose by 39 cents to $22.30 per hundredweight, and crop conditions for corn and soybeans remain favorable, holding above the five-year average. Despite these improvements, margins for dairy farms remain tight. Regular updates on market conditions and industry developments are crucial for farmers to stay informed. The CME reported a significant increase in milk futures and cash dairy prices, with butter prices hitting a new year-to-date high. These changes affect profit margins and strategic planning for dairy farmers, highlighting the importance of capitalizing on opportunities and navigating risks to stay profitable.

  • Cash dairy prices were generally higher on the CME, with notable increases in butter and nonfat dry milk prices.
  • September Class III futures contract saw a significant rise, reaching $22.30 per hundredweight.
  • Crop conditions for corn and soybeans remain favorable, well above the five-year average.
  • Despite market improvements, dairy farmers continue to face tight margins.
  • Strategic planning and regular updates on market conditions are essential for navigating risks and capitalizing on opportunities.
  • Butter prices hit a new year-to-date high, reflecting positive market momentum.
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The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) showed a significant increase in milk futures, and cash dairy prices also witnessed strong action to begin the week, with butter prices reaching a new year-to-date high. Consider what these implications are for your profit margins and strategic planning! The September Class III futures contract climbed 39 cents to $22.30 per hundredweight. Dry whey remained stable at $0.55, forty-pound cheese blocks at $2.10, cheese barrels at $2.2550, butter at $3.1850, and nonfat dry milk at $1.2650. With concerns about higher crop conditions adding another layer to the market environment, staying current is more critical than ever. Staying educated isn’t only good for dairy farmers; it’s also necessary for success in a competitive market.

Bullish Butter and Nonfat Dry Milk: Market Trends You Can’t Ignore

  • Dry Whey: Prices held steady at $0.55 with no market activity recorded, indicating stability in this segment.
  • Cheese Blocks: Remained unchanged at $2.10. This lack of movement highlights a period of price stability. No transactions were reported, signifying a balanced supply and demand.
  • Cheese Barrels: They are similarly stable, maintaining their price at $2.2550. The absence of sales confirms market equilibrium.
  • Butter: Saw a modest increase of $0.0050, reaching $3.1850, with six transactions recorded between $3.1850 and $3.2025. This rise sets a new year-to-date high, showing a promising trend.
  • Nonfat Dry Milk (NDM): Prices rose by $0.01 to $1.2650, with three sales reported, ranging from $1.26 to $1.2650. This minor uptick also represents a new year-to-date high, reflecting growing demand.

It is worth noting that both butter and NDM have reached their top prices for the year, indicating critical market trends for both products. Market players should keep a careful eye on these developments since they might signify more significant swings in supply and demand.

For more context on the dairy market trends, you can explore our detailed US Dairy Farmers’ Revenue and Expenditure Rise Slightly in March and stay updated with the latest Big Milk Checks and Low Feed Costs stories.

The Ripple Effect of Recent Market Movements on Dairy Farming 

The recent market movements have significant implications for dairy farmers. Let’s break down the potential benefits and challenges: 

  • Increased Revenue: With butter and nonfat dry milk reaching new year-to-date highs, farmers can capitalize on higher market prices.
  • Stable Cheese Prices: While cheese prices have remained unchanged, stability can provide a predictable source of income for those heavily invested in cheese production.
  • Higher Class III Futures: The rise in Class III futures suggests an optimistic outlook for milk prices, potentially leading to better contract deals for farmers.
  • Managing Costs: As market prices rise, feed and other inputs may also increase. Effective cost management becomes crucial to maintaining profitability.
  • Export Opportunities: With cheese exports up by 20.5% from the previous year, there’s potential to explore international markets, enhancing revenue streams.
  • Crop Conditions: Favorable crop conditions for corn and soybeans could mean more affordable feed options, positively impacting profit margins.
  • Market Volatility: Despite the current highs, market volatility is a constant challenge. Farmers need to stay informed and possibly use hedging strategies to mitigate risks.
  • Reduced Herd Sizes: The reduction in the U.S. dairy herd could lead to less competition in the market but may also reflect broader economic pressures on farmers.

Ultimately, these market trends offer both opportunities and challenges. Staying agile and informed will be vital to navigating this dynamic landscape.

The Bottom Line

Recent changes in dairy pricing, notably for butter and nonfat dry milk, indicate crucial adjustments that may affect your bottom line. While spot market activity remained reasonably consistent, the rise in Class III futures and strong crop conditions highlight the importance of caution. As margins remain tight despite increased milk prices and lower feed costs, market dynamics provide both possibilities and problems.

Consider how these movements will impact your agriculture. Proactively monitoring your price strategy and keeping up with market variations may make a significant impact. Mechanisms such as dairy futures and options may help limit price volatility, although their applicability will vary based on your unique business.

It’s crucial not to navigate these market changes alone. Keep abreast of the latest market news and engage with industry professionals to develop plans that align with your farm’s objectives. Your next steps could be the key to success in this dynamic industry. Stay informed, stay active, and seize the opportunities that come your way.

The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is significant. Investors must evaluate these risks considering their financial situation. While the information is deemed reliable, it has not been independently verified. The views expressed are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The Bullvine. This content is meant for solicitation purposes. Remember, past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

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