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Archive for butter production

New Zealand Dairy Boom: Record Milk Collections and Rising Prices Boost Farmer Profits

Tuesday, September 3rd, 2024

New Zealand‘s dairy boom is boosting farmer profits with record milk collections and rising prices. Curious about the latest trends? Read on.

Summary: Seeing your milk collections rise this winter? You’re not alone. Due to favorable weather conditions, New Zealand’s dairy production has hit an all-time high for July. Milk volumes are up by 8.4%, and milk solids have also seen a 9.2% increase. This is great news for dairy farmers, especially with Fonterra upping its projected farmgate milk price to NZ$8.50/kg of milk solids. The industry is diversifying beyond whole milk powder (WMP) to focus more on skim milk powder (SMP), butter, and cheese, catering to evolving global demands and lessening reliance on the Chinese market. Challenges lie ahead, but profit opportunities have never looked more promising.

  • New Zealand’s dairy production surged to an all-time high for July, with milk volumes up 8.4% and milk solids by 9.2%.
  • Fonterra has increased the projected farmgate milk price to NZ$8.50/kg of milk solids.
  • The dairy industry is diversifying its products to focus more on SMP, butter, and cheese, reducing its dependency on the Chinese market.
  • This diversification aligns with global demand changes and presents new profit opportunities for dairy farmers.
New Zealand dairy, milk collections, record-breaking, farmgate milk price, profitability, Kiwi dairy producers, Global Dairy Trade, GDT auctions, skim milk powder, whole milk powder, dairy industry, USDA study, butter production, cheese output, Chinese demand, product mix, market opportunities.

In July, New Zealand had record-breaking milk collections, with volumes surpassing 310 thousand metric tons, up an impressive 8.4% from the previous year, and milk solids collections beating last year’s records by 9.2%. This spike makes July 2023 the most critical milk-producing month in history. Fonterra increased the predicted farmgate milk price by 50% to NZ$8.50/kg of milk solids, which is higher than the national average cost of milk production. This presents an ideal chance for dairy farmers to increase profitability. Understanding these patterns will help you make more educated choices and increase profits. Have you considered how this growing tendency may affect your dairy farm?

MonthMilk Collections (Metric Tons)Percent Change (Year-on-Year)
June280,000+7.5%
July310,000+8.4%
August330,000+9.0%

Have you noticed a surge in your milk collections this winter?

July marked a historic milestone for Kiwi dairy producers. We achieved record levels with a remarkable 8.4% increase in milk collections over the previous year. This wasn’t just a minor uptick; it was the highest milk production ever recorded for July. Let’s take a moment to celebrate this significant achievement!

While June and July are typically slow, this year’s results defied expectations, setting a new benchmark for offseason output. These statistics underscore the resilience and effectiveness of New Zealand’s dairy sector. They are a strong indicator of the potential for future profitability and a prosperous season ahead, instilling confidence in our industry’s strength.

In New Zealand, June and July are typically the off-season for dairy production. This time enables cows to rest and recover before calving in the spring. Milk output often decreases during these months since most cows are dry. However, this year, a pleasant winter on the North Island has changed this tendency. Milk output started to rise sooner than predicted, providing farmers with a much-needed boost during a period when production often slows.

The Price-Upswing Farmers Have Been Waiting For 

Following the August Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auctions, the dairy industry is optimistic. The surge in milk powder prices has sparked a wave of enthusiasm across the sector. We are poised for higher returns and improved season prospects with Fonterra’s 50% increase in the expected farmgate milk price, reaching a midpoint of NZ$8.50 per kilogram of milk solids. This is the price upswing we’ve been waiting for, and it’s time to seize the opportunities it presents.

However, the recent GDT auction had mixed outcomes. While skim milk powder (SMP) prices rose to their highest level since mid-June, whole milk powder (WMP) values declined. This mixed conclusion complicates planning in the following months.

New Zealand’s dairy industry is branching out.

The USDA’s most recent study expects a 6% reduction in whole milk powder (WMP) production this year. This decrease is sometimes good news. Instead, it allows for increased production of other dairy products. For example, skim milk powder (SMP) output is expected to grow by 9%, while butter production will increase by 3%.

These transitions occur at an appropriate moment. As demand for milk powder in China declines, the worldwide market for cheese grows. The USDA predicts that cheese output in New Zealand, which increased by 7% in 2023, will remain stable this year. This diversity helps to reduce risks and grasp new possibilities.

Take mozzarella, for example. Since its launch in December 2023, its price has increased by 28% at the most recent GDT auction. This surge indicates a good trend that may help balance the uneven results in the milk powder markets. Diversifying your product mix might help you adapt and profit from changing market needs.

Shifting Your Focus? You’re in Good Company 

Have you found yourself having to adjust your production focus? You are not alone. Many dairy producers in New Zealand are pivoting to capitalize on new possibilities created by shifting global preferences. The industry is adjusting its product selection in response to a significant drop in Chinese demand for milk powder.

Take cheese, for example. The worldwide demand for cheese has never been greater, and it’s paying off. Mozzarella prices reached new highs during the last GDT auction, up 28% from the first sale in December 2023. This demand is a dazzling indication of fresh earnings waiting to be realized.

This strategy move is more than simply responding to current market developments; it is also about capitalizing on possible long-term profits. Diversifying into a more extensive product mix will allow you to position your firm to survive in the face of shifting demand. The stats speak for themselves.

Balancing Opportunities with Potential Challenges 

While the recent jump in milk collections and projected price increases create a pleasant image, possible difficulties remain. Have you considered the consequences of shifting global demand? Dairy markets, notably in China, significantly affect pricing and demand. An unexpected decrease in Chinese demand for milk powder might interrupt the upward trend.

Then there’s the unpredictable beast called climate change. Although this winter has been mild, future seasons may not be so merciful. Unseasonal weather patterns may disrupt grazing conditions and milk production cycles, posing challenges for even the best-prepared farms.

Regulatory changes are another essential concern. New rules regarding animal welfare, environmental pollution, and commerce may all result in higher expenses or operational adjustments. Staying ahead of these regulatory developments necessitates changing your procedures and making financial investments.

In the fast-paced world of dairy production, it is critical to balance anticipated obstacles with present optimism. By being watchful and adaptable, you can overcome these obstacles while capitalizing on opportunities.

The Future of New Zealand’s Dairy Industry Looks Promising, But There Are Key Points You Should Keep an Eye On 

Experts expect milk output to expand steadily over the next several years by 3-5% [Global Dairy Report]. This expansion may pave the path for increased total revenues, particularly if global demand continues to be robust.

Price patterns: Recent patterns suggest that milk prices are erratic but typically increasing. Rabobank analysts predict that the global milk price will range between USD 3.90 and 4.50 per kg by mid-2024, depending on various economic variables and trade dynamics. Keeping a careful watch on these industry developments might provide significant insights into increasing profit margins.

Market Opportunities: Diversification is a critical approach. Cheese, butter, and skim milk powder are becoming more popular worldwide. For example, the cheese industry alone is predicted to increase by about 7% yearly [Dairy Industry Analysis]. China’s changing milk powder demand creates attractive opportunities in Southeast Asia and Africa.

Expert Forecasts: “New Zealand’s dairy sector is robust and adapting well to global trends.” To maintain profitability, the emphasis should be on value-added goods and expanding into new markets, according to Michael Anderson, a prominent analyst at USDA [USDA]. Embracing innovation and being current on market projections will help you remain ahead of the competition.

New Zealand dairy producers may look forward to a sustainable and lucrative future using these insights and strategically managing production and marketing plans.

The Bottom Line

The dairy business in New Zealand is exhibiting encouraging signals of expansion and promise. With milk collections at record highs and Fonterra’s favorable pricing revisions, there is potential for increasing profitability. Diversifying products like cheese and butter helps meet shifting global needs and mitigate market swings.

Now, more than ever is the time to explore how these trends may help your business. Investigate strategies to leverage increased milk collections and broaden your product offerings. Invest carefully in infrastructure and technology to improve efficiency and productivity. By remaining knowledgeable and adaptive, you can position your farm to succeed in changing market conditions.

Optimism is in the air; use this opportunity to prepare and make the most of the future. Monitor market developments, be adaptable, and plan for success.

Learn more: 

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HPAI Scare in California Dairy Farms

Thursday, August 29th, 2024

Could an HPAI outbreak in California spike milk prices? Be ready for market changes. Learn more now.

Summary: The possibility of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) striking California’s dairy farms has farmers on edge. Recent spikes in milk and dairy product prices, largely fueled by whispers of HPAI, indicate potentially severe implications for the industry. If confirmed, the virus could worsen the already strained milk production, impacting national cheese and milk powder outputs. California, a key player in the U.S. dairy industry, could see significant disruptions. While the California Department of Food and Agriculture (CDFA) conducts investigations and assures that pasteurization ensures milk safety for consumers, the potential economic impact of HPAI remains a critical concern. Preventative measures include banning the movement of possibly infected dairy animals into the state and collaborating with health professionals to monitor and manage the virus.

  • HPAI potential in California dairy farms fuels price spikes in milk and dairy products.
  • Virus confirmation might worsen milk production and affect national cheese and milk powder supplies.
  • California’s significant role in the U.S. dairy industry could lead to widespread disruptions.
  • CDFA assures pasteurization guarantees consumer safety for milk despite virus concerns.
  • Economic impacts are a major concern if HPAI is confirmed in California dairies.
  • Preventative measures include halting movement of possibly infected dairy animals and enhanced virus monitoring.
highly pathogenic avian influenza, HPAI, California, US dairy market, dairy cattle, coughing, nasal discharge, swelling joints, decreased milk production, virus dissemination, infected animals, contaminated equipment, milk supply, animal loss, containment, treatment, milk and dairy product prices, economic pressure, dairy producers, ill cows, California Department of Food and Agriculture, CDFA, Central Valley, USDA, preventative measures, movement ban, virus evolution, public health initiatives, milk production, nonfat dry milk, NDM, butter production, supply deficit, price increase, reduced profits, market trends, allegations fallout, milk safety concerns, pasteurization, dairy products

With the threat of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) looming over California, the dairy industry is on high alert. Reports of a significant increase in ill cows among some dairy farmers have raised concerns about the potential spread of this dangerous virus. While HPAI has not been confirmed in California, the mere suspicion has already led to a surge in milk and dairy product prices. The possibility of a large-scale epidemic in California’s dairy sector could disrupt the entire U.S. dairy market, underlining the gravity of the situation.

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) is a severe strain of avian flu that may potentially infect dairy cattle. Symptoms include coughing, nasal discharge, swelling joints, and decreased milk production, which may potentially be fatal. The virus is disseminated by contact with infected animals, their fluids, and contaminated equipment. An HPAI epidemic may lead to decreased milk supply, animal loss, and higher expenditures for containment and treatment. It can also raise milk and dairy product prices, causing economic pressure for producers.

California Dairy Farmers on High Alert: Is HPAI the Culprit Behind Sick Cows? 

California’s dairy producers are on high alert after recent reports of an unprecedented increase of ill cows in their herds. These findings have sparked concern, with many believing that highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is at play. The California Department of Food and Agriculture (CDFA) promptly responded.

The CDFA is heavily engaged in examining these instances. They’ve begun analyzing samples from three dairy farms in the Central Valley, a region critical to the state’s milk supply. These samples were forwarded to the California Animal Health and Food Safety (CAHFS) lab for preliminary examination. If the tests are positive, the results will be transmitted to the USDA for confirmation.

The CDFA’s response to the potential threat of HPAI goes beyond testing. They have proactively engaged with private veterinarians, local farmers, ranchers, and state and federal partners to develop comprehensive reaction strategies and maintain active monitoring of livestock and poultry across California. If HPAI is confirmed, the CDFA is prepared to implement swift reaction measures, similar to those used in previous outbreaks, to minimize the impact on the dairy industry.

Preventative measures are also in place. The CDFA has prohibited the entry of potentially infected dairy animals into the state. Furthermore, they collaborate with health professionals to gain a better understanding of the virus’s evolution and support public health initiatives. This proactive and coordinated strategy underscores their commitment to animal welfare and public safety, providing reassurance to the audience.

Market Jitters: Pricing Surge Amidst HPAI Fears 

The mere mention of HPAI possibly infiltrating California has sent shockwaves through the dairy industry. But how are these speculations and the likely existence of HPAI influencing milk prices? Let’s dig in.

Fear and uncertainty have resulted in a substantial increase in milk and dairy product costs. This isn’t just a slight change; prices have risen to unprecedented heights as the market prepares for potential disruptions. Spot Cheddar prices rose to their highest levels in 2024 only this week, prompted by concerns over HPAI’s influence on milk supply networks and production quantities.

Let’s delve into the numbers. Current market statistics show that the price of nonfat dry milk (NDM) has reached record highs, driven by a reduction in milk supply and increased market fear. This significant increase in commodity prices, not seen in months, underscores the dairy sector’s deep-seated fear of a potential epidemic in California, the largest milk producer in the country.

Furthermore, the stakes are high since California produces 18% of the nation’s milk and 42% of its NDM. The Golden State also leads Class IV output, accounting for 32% of U.S. butter production and 42% of national nonfat dry milk (NDM) production. These data demonstrate why any possible health catastrophe in California’s dairy industry has far-reaching consequences for the national market. Disruptions in production might lead to a supply deficit, increasing prices and reducing profits for dairy processors and farmers.

The rumor of HPAI has sparked concern about the dairy industry’s vulnerability to health issues, even if it has not been substantiated. As we wait for more solid answers, the market remains tense, with prices reflecting this concern.

So, dairy producers monitor market trends and prepare for any swings. The fallout from these allegations is already being felt, and remaining informed is your most significant protection in navigating these unpredictable times.

Brace For Impact: What Confirmed HPAI Could Mean For California’s Dairy Industry 

So, what happens if HPAI is verified in California? You may be asking, “How bad could it get?” Well, the ramifications are tremendous.

  • Milk Production Disruption
    First and foremost, California is the nation’s leading dairy state. If HPAI spreads here, the effect on milk output might be huge. Fewer healthy cows equals less milk, which might spread to other critical dairy states with HPAI. Consider a domino effect in which productivity decreases across the board.
  • Ripple Effects on Supply Chains
    A decrease in milk production affects more than simply the raw milk supply. The strain affects the whole supply chain. HPAI has already impacted milk input at cheese manufacturers in Idaho and the Central Plains. If California’s milk production is jeopardized, cheese, butter, and milk powder companies around the country would suffer supply problems.
  • Dairy Product Availability Nationwide
    Less raw milk and disturbed supply networks result in lower dairy product availability. Customers may find fewer selections on grocery store shelves, and those that remain may be more expensive. Remember how spot Cheddar and nonfat dry milk (NDM) prices soared to 2024 highs? If California’s output plummets expect even greater hikes.

Although it is not a verified catastrophe, the potential consequences are catastrophic. HPAI on California dairy farms might result in interrupted production, stressed supply systems, and fewer dairy products countrywide. Stay informed, plan your operations, and hope for the best while preparing for all possible outcomes.

Concerned About Milk Safety Amidst HPAI Whispers? Rest Easy 

Concerned about the safety of milk and dairy products in light of HPAI whispers? You can rest assured. Pasteurization, a standard practice in dairy production, effectively eliminates the virus. This means that your milk, cheese, and other dairy favorites are safe to consume, providing you with a sense of security and confidence in your consumption choices.

But that is not all. The California Department of Food and Agriculture (CDFA) is wary. They are actively tracking and examining probable HPAI cases. The CDFA works with federal and local authorities, veterinarians, and farmers to manage and reduce outbreaks. Rapid response has been emphasized, ensuring that any positive instances are handled immediately, with samples provided to the USDA for final confirmation.

Rest assured that significant efforts are being implemented to safeguard the dairy sector and consumers.

Expert Voices: Shedding Light on HPAI and Your Dairy Herds 

According to Jeremy Luban, a molecular scientist at the University of Massachusetts, “We often see alerts regarding such viruses, but the overlap with dairy farms needs diligent attention.” This viewpoint might help you comprehend the possible hazards around your dairy cattle.

State Veterinarian Annette Jones tells farmers, “Our multi-agency partnership is critical. We have methods to deal with instances like HPAI efficiently, lowering the danger to animals.” Knowing this makes you feel more confident that state officials are on top of the situation.

Peg Coleman, a scientist who formerly worked for the U.S. federal government, raises an important question: “How reliable is the evidence linking avian influenza to food products?” This information may assuage consumer worries about dairy product safety during the epidemic.

The Economic Impact: What Could HPAI Cost You?

Let’s discuss money. If HPAI infects your herd, you will face significant costs. First, consider the expense of veterinarian treatment. Sick cows need extra vet visits, drugs, and sometimes even quarantines. That’s not inexpensive.

Then, think about productivity. Sick cows make less milk. Milk output will decrease, which will have a direct impact on your profits. That is income wasted daily; your herd must perform at full potential.

As if that weren’t enough, consider increasing feed costs. HPAI outbreaks may disrupt supply networks, leading to rising feed prices. Higher feed prices, coupled with reduced milk supply, might result in a financial double whammy.

According to Dairy Herd Management, outbreaks of HPAI in other states have shown how rapidly these expenses may accumulate. For example, the typical price per diseased cow might vary between $500 and $1,000. When you multiply that by the number of your herd, it becomes clear why monitoring is essential.

The financial dangers associated with HPAI are not merely hypothetical; they are real. Keeping an eye on your herd’s health and being proactive may help you save much money.

HPAI H5N1: A Growing Threat to U.S. Dairy Farms and Public Health

The emergence of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 in dairy cattle has raised serious concerns. The first reported occurrence occurred on March 25, 2024, and the virus has since been detected in 192 dairy herds spanning 13 states, including Idaho, Michigan, and Ohio. Four uncommon human cases have also been connected to sick dairy cattle, emphasizing the possibility but low risk of mammal-to-human transfer [CDC].

The FDA and USDA are actively monitoring the issue, creating testing standards, and enforcing biosecurity measures such as heat treatment of milk to reduce hazards. These measures prevent future spread and safeguard public health and the dairy business [USDA APHIS].

Most afflicted states are dairy-producing centers, adding to the urgency. The virus’s presence in these locations might impair milk and cheese production, affecting costs and availability. Public health officials carefully monitor flu-like infections among people who deal closely with affected livestock  [FDA].

The Bottom Line

Dr. Annette Jones, the State Veterinarian, emphasizes the necessity and need of monitoring. “While the current risk to the general public remains low, dairy farmers must enhance biosecurity measures and collaborate closely with veterinarians to protect their herds,” the spokesperson said. Dr. Jones recommends remaining informed from credible sources and proactively addressing avian influenza issues in the dairy business.

The essential conclusion is clear: be educated, plan, and collaborate to protect your dairy business.

Learn more:

Categories : Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza
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Is the Summer Heat Finally Over? Dairy Farmers See Milk Production Stabilize but Challenges Remain!

Saturday, August 10th, 2024

Is the summer heat finally over? Discover how dairy farmers see milk production stabilize and what their ongoing challenges are in the changing market.

Summary: As summer draws close, dairy milk production is stabilizing, but the market remains tight, especially for spot milk, which commands premium prices. Cream supplies stay restricted even though butter production has increased. There is a stark contrast in exports: butter has significantly risen, while nonfat dry milk (NDM) exports continue to struggle. Cheese prices have shown resilience after a dip due to fluctuations in milk supply. Whey prices, after reaching multi-year highs, are now declining. Meanwhile, grain and feed prices have seen volatility, impacting producer margins. Farmers must navigate these shifts as fall approaches to capitalize on any market opportunities amid ongoing uncertainties.

  • Spot milk remains in high demand, with premiums averaging $1.25 over Class III prices in the Central U.S.
  • Butter production increased by 2.8% yearly to 169.2 million pounds in June.
  • Despite higher butter production, cream supplies are tight, prompting strategies like micro-fixing.
  • Butter exports surged by 31.8% yearly, with notable demand from Canada.
  • NDM exports struggled with a 10% decline in June compared to last year.
  • Cheese production fell by 1.4% in June, with American types like Cheddar seeing the most significant drops.
  • Cheddar block prices recovered from $1.84/lb on Monday to $1.9575/lb by Friday.
  • Whey protein isolate production rose 34% yearly, while dry whey production decreased by 7.5%.
  • Grain and feed prices experienced volatility but ended the week lower, potentially benefiting farmer margins.
Tranquil Texas meadow at sunrise with hay bales strewn across the landscape

Have you felt the high summer heat strain your cows and your patience? This summer has been a trial by fire for dairy producers, with high temperatures disrupting milk production. The persistent heat stressed out herds and taxed resources, causing productivity drops and narrowing margins. However, as the season progresses and temperatures stabilize, the question remains: are we through, or are there more challenges ahead? Despite some reprieve from the extreme heat, many dairy producers are still dealing with the effects. Tight milk supply and increasing prices exacerbate the continuing issues, keeping everyone on their toes as demand patterns change at the end of summer and the start of autumn. Your perseverance in the face of these hurdles is highly admirable.

ProductJune 2023 Production% Change Year Over YearSpot Price (End of Week)
Milk––$1.25 over Class III prices
Butter169.2 million lbs+2.8%$3.0975/lb
Nonfat Dry Milk (NDM)188.3 million lbs-15.1%$1.20/lb
Cheddar Blocks1.161 billion lbs-1.4%$1.9575/lb
Dry Whey–-7.5%$0.5625/lb

Can You Feel It? The Subtle Shift Signaling the End of Summer 

Could you sense it? The slight change in the air indicates the end of summer. Dairy producers around the country are breathing a sigh of relief as the blazing heat starts to subside, returning milk production to normal seasonal levels. However, not everything is going well just yet.

In certain parts of the nation, persistently high temperatures are reducing milk supply, creating a challenge to producers. Despite this, the business is resilient, with farmers working to satisfy demand. The spot milk market is very competitive, with producers paying a premium for more fabulous cargoes. For example, spot premiums in the Central United States are averaging $1.25 more than Class III pricing, up from last year.

This tight milk market is exacerbated by impending bottling facilities preparing for the school year. The strain is on, and as a dairy farmer, you probably feel it physically and metaphorically. How are you handling these fluctuations? Do these changes affect your production and costs?

Spot Milk Becomes the Season’s ‘White Gold’ as Demand Skyrockets

MonthClass III Milk Price ($/cwt)
May 2024$18.23
June 2024$18.06
July 2024$18.84
August 2024$19.30

Spot milk remains a popular item as the summer comes to an end. Many places have limited supply, forcing firms to pay a premium for more shipments. How much more, you ask? Dairy Market News reports that spot premiums in the Central United States average $1.25 over Class III pricing. That’s a 25-cent increase from last year. This increase is not a coincidence; it directly results from the persistent heat and humidity wreaking havoc on milk production. Given these challenges, it’s no surprise that demand and prices are soaring as the autumn season approaches.

The Never-Ending Demand: Cream Supplies Stay Tight Despite Butter Production Boost

Despite an increase in the butterfat composition of the milk supply, cream supplies have been somewhat limited this summer. It’s a mixed bag; although greater component levels have increased butter output, the availability of additional cream loads remains limited. Butter output in June increased by 2.8% yearly to 169.2 million pounds. Nonetheless, butter manufacturers nationwide strongly need an increased cream supply to satisfy production demands. The need for cream is never-ending—as soon as it rises, it’s gone, leaving everyone hungry for more.

The Resilient Butter Market: Stability Amid Seasonal Shifts 

Week EndingButter Market Price ($/lb)
June 7, 2024$2.75
June 14, 2024$2.85
June 21, 2024$2.90
June 28, 2024$2.95
July 5, 2024$3.00
July 12, 2024$3.05
July 19, 2024$3.10
July 26, 2024$3.07
August 2, 2024$3.09
August 9, 2024$3.10

The butter market has remained remarkably stable despite the periodic ebb and flow. The spot price at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) finished at $3.0975, down 0.75¢ from the previous week. While these data point to a relatively steady industry, there are still worries regarding future demand. With the baking and holiday season approaching, stakeholders will be watching closely to see whether retail activity picks up to match the expected increase in consumer demand. Will the market remain stable, or will there be a mad rush to buy more stocks? Stay tuned as the next several months expose the fundamental dynamics at work.

Butter’s Star Rises While NDM Fades: A Tale of Two Exports 

MonthButter Exports (million pounds)NDM Exports (million pounds)
June6.8134.4
Year-over-Year Change+31.8%-10%

Butter and nonfat dry milk (NDM) exports present a stark difference. Butter’s success has been nothing short of amazing, with exports up 31.8% in June, primarily due to rising demand from Canada. In concrete terms, it amounts to up to 6.8 million pounds sent overseas.

However, NDM exports are failing. They fell 10% compared to the same month last year, resulting in the lowest June volume since 2019. The United States shipped just 134.4 million pounds of NDM in June.

While a strong market drives butter exports, the NDM industry struggles with low demand. This lackluster performance has kept NDM spot prices relatively stable, preventing a substantial surge. Furthermore, the year-to-date results for NDM exports are down 11.6% from the previous year.

The NDM Puzzle: Low Supply Matches Tepid Demand, Keeping Prices Static

Week EndingNDM Spot Price ($/lb)
August 9, 20241.20
August 2, 20241.24
July 26, 20241.22
July 19, 20241.25
July 12, 20241.18
July 5, 20241.21

The supply and demand dynamics for nonfat dry milk (NDM) have been intriguing. Demand has been tepid, but so has the supply. In June, combined production of NDM and skim milk powder totaled only 188.3 million pounds, marking a significant 15.1% decrease from last year. However, this decline hasn’t yet led to a price surge, primarily because demand hasn’t picked up its pace. 

The spot price for NDM seems trapped in a tight range. Despite last week’s brief price rally, the NDM spot price dipped on four out of five trading days, losing 4 cents over the week to close at $1.20 per pound. During this period, 27 powder loads were traded, a notably high activity, with 17 loads moving on Tuesday alone. The low supply and weak demand keep everyone guessing when the market might see a dynamic shift.

Cheese’s Comeback Story: From Dips to Resilience and Everything In Between

ProductBeginning of Week Price (Aug 5, 2024)End of Week Price (Aug 9, 2024)Price Change
Cheddar Blocks$1.84/lb$1.9575/lb+10.75¢
Cheddar Barrels$1.93/lb$2.005/lb+7.5¢

Recently, cheese markets have shown to be quite resilient. Despite a decrease to $1.84/lb on Monday—the lowest since May—cheddar block prices returned to $1.9575/lb on Friday, representing a 10.75¢ rise from the previous week.

Overall, cheese exports started to drop in June. U.S. exporters delivered 85.7 million pounds of cheese overseas, a 9.1% rise yearly but lower than prior months’ record highs. Mexican demand remained strong, with 31.6 million pounds shipped, but down from May’s record of 40.4 million pounds.

Production data also show a slight decline. June witnessed a 1.4% year-over-year decrease to 1.161 billion pounds, with American cheeses, notably Cheddar, bearing the brunt of the downturn. Despite these obstacles, the cheese market’s essential stability remains, providing a bright spot in an otherwise complicated environment of shifting pricing and variable export levels.

Whey’s Wild Ride: From Multi-Year Highs to a Slow Descent 

Week EndingSpot Price per Pound (¢)
August 9, 202456.25
August 2, 202461.00
July 26, 202458.00
July 19, 202453.00
July 12, 202455.75
July 5, 202460.00

Despite prior highs, the dry whey market has significantly decreased this week. From Tuesday to Friday, the spot price progressively declined. By the end of the week, it had been reduced to 56.25¢ per pound, down 4.75¢ from the previous Friday.

Several causes have contributed to the current decline. Reduced cheese production has had a substantial influence on the whey stream. As cheese manufacturing slows, the supply of whey—a byproduct—dwindles. Manufacturers are also concentrating more on high-protein goods such as whey protein isolates, with production up 34% yearly in June.

Furthermore, export demand for whey remains high. Recovering pork prices in China has sparked a rebound in hog breeding, increasing demand for dry whey and permeate as piglet feed. This strong demand has helped to maintain market tension even as prices fall. The following weeks will indicate whether these dynamics have stabilized or continue distorting pricing.

Let’s Talk Grains and Feed: Did You Notice the Recent Jolt in Corn and Soybean Futures? 

DateCorn Futures (DEC24)Soybean Futures (DEC24)
August 5, 2024$4.02/bu$10.25/bu
August 6, 2024$4.01/bu$10.22/bu
August 7, 2024$4.00/bu$10.18/bu
August 8, 2024$3.99/bu$10.10/bu
August 9, 2024$3.97/bu$10.08/bu

Let’s discuss cereals and feed. Did you see the recent spike in maize and soybean futures? Monday’s market pandemonium spiked, but don’t get too excited—it didn’t stay. By Thursday, DEC24 corn futures had dropped to $3.97/bu, down nearly a cent from the previous week’s closing. Soybeans settled at $10.0825/bu., down roughly 20¢ from last Friday.

Despite the market instability, the drop in grain and feed costs is encouraging. Lower pricing might offer producer profits the boost they urgently need. When your inputs are less expensive, you may boost your earnings. Could this imply brighter days for your bottom line? We will have to wait and see.

Brace Yourself for Fall: Market Dynamics and Environmental Factors That Could Shake Things Up 

As we enter the winter months, dairy producers can expect a combination of market dynamics and environmental variables. The recent stability of milk output suggests that things are returning to normal, but don’t get too comfortable. Experts believe that demand for spot milk will stay strong owing to increasing bottling operations once schools resume. This might keep milk premiums high, reducing profit margins even further. Cream supplies are anticipated to remain limited, especially as butter production increases. While this may benefit butter producers, people relying on cream can expect continued shortages and increased prices.

Do not anticipate a significant increase in nonfat dry milk (NDM). Prices will remain stable as supply and demand are in a holding pattern. However, there is a ray of light as several Southeast Asian regions see growing demand. Despite recent turbulence in global stocks, cheese markets seem to have stabilized. The present prices are stable, but increased prices may ultimately reduce demand. Keep a watch on exports; they’ve dropped but remain robust, especially in Mexico.

Finally, the grain and feed markets have seen short rises before returning to their previous levels. This change may reduce feed prices, which is always good news as we approach a season in which every penny matters. Dairy producers should be careful. The market is a complicated web of possibilities and problems, ranging from limited cream supply to steady cheese pricing and fluctuating grain markets. Prepare for a tumultuous few months, and keep an eye on market signals to navigate this complex terrain effectively.

Surviving the Roller Coaster: How Dairy Farmers Can Profit Amid Market Chaos 

The current market circumstances have critical economic ramifications for dairy producers. Price fluctuations in milk, butter, cheese, and other dairy products may substantially influence farm profitability. As spot milk becomes the season’s ‘white gold’, with manufacturers paying premiums for more loads, milk sales income may rise. On the other hand, tighter supplies may put farmers under pressure, particularly in the heat of late summer. High butter prices provide some comfort but create concerns about future demand as retail activity for the baking and holiday season gradually increases.

So, how can farmers deal with these economic challenges? Diversify product offers to ensure consistent cash sources. Instead of focusing on a single dairy product, diversify into butter, cheese, and whey protein isolates. Diversification may protect against price volatility in any particular category. Stay informed about industry developments and export prospects. Recognize demand increases in Southeast Asia for milk powder or rising butter demand from Canada to use resources more wisely.

Invest in technology and process upgrades to boost manufacturing efficiency. Use data analytics to forecast trends, stress-resistant feed to keep yields high during harsh weather, and invest in sustainable practices to satisfy regulatory requirements. Farmers may effectively handle economic changes by taking a proactive strategy that includes diversification, trend research, and strategic investments.

The Bottom Line

As we go through these cyclical adjustments, essential conclusions emerge. Milk production has mostly returned to normal. However, regional heat remains a cause of disturbance. The struggle for spot milk heats up, with cream and cheese markets showing mild resistance. Butter production expands after the summer, but NDM fails to gain momentum. Despite price volatility, the cheese business has experienced a spectacular recovery, although grain and feed costs vary, reflecting the more significant market uncertainty. So, what does this mean for you, a dairy farmer? It is essential to remain alert and adaptable. Are your operations prepared to endure market swings and capitalize on new opportunities? Stay informed and adaptive, and keep an eye on market trends. The dairy industry is continuously evolving; being prepared might make a difference. What strategies will you use to flourish in these uncertain times?

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U.S. Cheese Production in April: Italian Cheese Surges, American Cheese Declines

Sunday, June 9th, 2024

Dive into April’s U.S. cheese production trends. Curious about the rise of Italian cheese and the decline of American cheese? Uncover the compelling data and regional details.

April presented a mixed landscape for U.S. cheese production, with both promising gains and notable declines. According to the USDA, total cheese output, excluding cottage cheese, reached 1.19 billion pounds, up 1.8% year-over-year but down 3% from March. Italian-type cheese production rose by 6.2% from last year to 504 million pounds, though it fell 2.8% from March. On the other hand, American cheese production declined by 4.7% year-over-year and 4.3% from March, totaling 468 million pounds. 

“The mixed trends in U.S. cheese production signal both resilience and challenges within the industry,” the USDA report suggests.

CategoryProduction (Million Pounds)Year-Over-Year ChangeMonth-Over-Month Change
Total Cheese (excluding cottage)1,190+1.8%-3.0%
Italian-Type Cheese504+6.2%-2.8%
American Cheese468-4.7%-4.3%
Butter208+5.3%-1.0%
Nonfat Dry Milk173-12.7%—
Skim Milk Powder36.3-20.8%—
Dry Whey—+2.1%—
Lactose—-1.5%—
Whey Protein Concentrate—-6.1%—
Hard Ice Cream64.7 million gallons+7.3%—

Mixed Signals in April U.S. Cheese Production Reflecting Varied Trends 

According to the USDA data, total cheese output, excluding cottage cheese, reached 1.19 billion pounds in April. This marks a 1.8% increase compared to the same period last year but shows a 3% decrease from March. The production dynamics underscore a mixed trend in U.S. cheese production for the month, reflecting both year-over-year growth and month-over-month decline.

Italian Cheeses Shine Year-Over-Year Despite Monthly Dip

Italian-type cheese production showcased a remarkable upturn, reflecting a year-over-year surge of 6.2%, culminating at 504 million pounds. Despite this annual growth, the month-over-month comparison revealed a marginal dip of 2.8% from March. This duality underscores both the strong demand for Italian cheeses over the year and the seasonal or market-driven fluctuations that influence monthly production volumes.

American Cheese Production Faces Significant Challenges in April

Amid the intricate landscape of U.S. cheese production, American cheese has faced a particularly challenging month. Specifically, April witnessed a decline in American cheese output, both when compared year-over-year and month-over-month. Production fell by 4.7% from April last year, resulting in a total output of 468 million pounds. The month-over-month comparison is similarly bleak, with a 4.3% decrease from March, accentuating the downward trend in this particular cheese category. This dual decline highlights ongoing shifts within the industry, signaling potential adjustments in consumer demand and production focus.

Butter Production Sees Minor Monthly Dip Amidst Impressive Annual Growth 

Butter production trends exhibited a complex pattern, reflecting the overarching variability in the dairy sector. While there was a minor decline of just over 1% in butter output compared to March, the sector demonstrated resilience with a notable 5.3% increase compared to the same period last year. This duality in trends is indicative of broader market dynamics and seasonal production adjustments. In total, April’s butter production reached 208 million pounds, underscoring both the short-term and long-term shifts in the dairy landscape.

Sharp Declines in Dry Dairy Products Highlight April’s Downturn

Dry dairy products presented a downward trend in April, with significant declines observed in both nonfat dry milk and skim milk powder production. Nonfat dry milk saw a steep reduction, recording a 12.7% drop to reach a total of 173 million pounds. Skim milk powder production experienced an even sharper decline of 20.8%, culminating in a total output of 36.3 million pounds compared to the same period last year.

Contrasting Fortunes Within Dry Dairy Production Reflect April’s Complex Landscape 

Nevertheless, not all dry dairy products shared the same fate. Dry whey production, for instance, edged up by 2.1%, offering a glimmer of optimism amidst broader declines in the sector. Specifically, dry whey output reached notable levels, counteracting the overarching downtrend. Conversely, lactose production did not fare as well, registering a 1.5% decline. Even more striking was the significant 6.1% decrease in whey protein concentrate production. Collectively, these figures underscore the mixed results within the dry dairy product landscape, highlighting areas of both growth and notable declines.

Unprecedented Fluctuations in Frozen Dairy Production: Hard Ice Cream Surges While Other Categories Slide

Frozen dairy product output varied significantly in April, illustrating a mixture of trends within the industry. The production of hard ice cream notably climbed by an impressive 7.3%, reaching 64.7 million gallons. This increase stands in stark contrast to the declines observed in other frozen dairy categories. The production of low-fat ice cream, sherbet, and frozen yogurt all experienced downturns, highlighting the sector’s fluctuations and the diverse consumer preferences shaping production dynamics.

Regional Production Trends: Wisconsin’s Cheddar Supremacy and California’s Mozzarella Dominance

In examining regional production trends, the data reveals that Wisconsin continues to dominate the Cheddar cheese market, producing an impressive 60.38 million pounds in April. California follows, contributing 21.29 million pounds to the nation’s Cheddar cheese supply. 

Turning attention to Mozzarella, California leads with a substantial output of 134.14 million pounds, while Wisconsin is not far behind, generating 93.13 million pounds. This makes California the unrivaled leader in Mozzarella production, though Wisconsin’s figures are commendable. 

When looking at overall cheese production, Wisconsin emerges as the top-producing state with an aggregate output of 281.48 million pounds. California comes in second, followed closely by Idaho and New Mexico. These states collectively form the backbone of the U.S. cheese manufacturing industry, each playing a crucial role in meeting domestic and international demand.

The Bottom Line

April’s cheese production data from the USDA paints a complex picture of the dairy industry, characterized by both advancements and setbacks. Italian-type cheeses exhibited impressive year-over-year growth, driven by a notable 6.2% increase, even as they faced a slight month-over-month decrease. In stark contrast, American cheese suffered significant declines both annually and monthly, highlighting underlying production challenges. 

The broader dairy landscape reflected similar dualities. Butter production experienced a modest monthly dip but demonstrated robust annual growth. The production of dry dairy products such as nonfat dry milk and skim milk powder saw sharp drops, whereas dry whey managed a slight increase. 

Frozen dairy products also showed variability, with hard ice cream production surging, while other categories like low-fat ice cream and frozen yogurt declined. Regionally, Wisconsin and California continued to dominate specific cheese categories, underscoring their pivotal roles in national dairy production. 

Overall, these intricate trends underscore the multifaceted nature of the U.S. dairy industry, highlighting areas of growth and the need for strategic adjustments in response to declining segments.

Key Takeaways:

  • Total cheese production in April saw a slight year-over-year increase of 1.8%, despite a 3% drop from March.
  • Italian-type cheese production rose by 6.2% year-over-year but decreased by 2.8% from the previous month.
  • American cheese production experienced declines both year-over-year and month-over-month, down by 4.7% and 4.3% respectively.
  • Butter production was up by 5.3% compared to April of last year, although it saw a minor decline from March.
  • Dry dairy products faced significant declines: nonfat dry milk dropped by 12.7% and skim milk powder by 20.8% year-over-year.
  • Dry whey production slightly increased by 2.1%, while lactose and whey protein concentrate production declined by 1.5% and 6.1% respectively.
  • Hard ice cream production surged by 7.3%, but low-fat ice cream, sherbet, and frozen yogurt production all decreased.
  • Wisconsin led in Cheddar cheese production, contributing 60.38 million pounds, whereas California was the top producer of Mozzarella with 134.14 million pounds.

Summary: In April, U.S. cheese production experienced a mixed landscape, with both positive and negative trends. The USDA reported a total cheese output of 1.19 billion pounds, up 1.8% year-over-year but down 3% from March. Italian-type cheese production rose by 6.2% to 504 million pounds, while American cheese production declined by 4.7% year-over-year and 4.3% from March, totaling 468 million pounds. This dual decline highlights ongoing shifts within the industry, signaling potential adjustments in consumer demand and production focus. Butter production saw a minor monthly dip, while dry dairy products showed a downward trend, with significant declines observed in nonfat dry milk and skim milk powder production. Dry whey production edged up by 2.1%, but lactose production and whey protein concentrate production also saw a decline. Frozen dairy product output varied significantly, with hard ice cream production climbing by 7.3% to reach 64.7 million gallons. Wisconsin continues to dominate the Cheddar cheese market, producing an impressive 60.38 million pounds in April.

Categories : Dairy Markets
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