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Decline in Dutch Milk Supply Amid Rising EU Production and Stable European Milk Prices

Find out why Dutch milk supply is dropping while EU production is growing. What does this mean for European milk prices? Check out the latest trends and market changes.

As the Dutch dairy industry struggles with falling milk production, Europe faces a curious paradox: a ‘milk lake.’ This situation, where there is an excess milk supply, highlights the complex dynamics within the European dairy market and broader agricultural trends reshaping the industry. This article examines the contrasting developments in Dutch milk supply and rising milk production across the EU, as well as the ‘milk lake’ implications on market stability and pricing mechanisms.

While the Netherlands has seen a continuous decline in milk output due to factors like the bluetongue virus and regulatory changes, countries like Poland and Germany are witnessing growth. According to ZuivelNL, the EU milk supply has grown by 1.1 percent in the first four months of this year, whereas the Netherlands’ supply has dropped by 1.3 percent. These opposing trends raise questions about supply management, market stability, and pricing mechanisms within Europe’s dairy industry.

Unraveling the Drop: Biological Strains and Regulatory Chains Impact Dutch Milk Supply

MonthMilk Supply (million kg)Change from Previous Year (%)
January 20241,100-1.2%
February 20241,050-1.0%
March 20241,200-0.9%
April 20241,180-1.5%
May 20241,150-1.6%

The decline in the supply of Dutch milk stems from biological challenges and regulatory constraints. Last year, the bluetongue virus outbreak in autumn significantly impacted livestock health, reducing milk yield. This effect is evident in the 1.6% drop in May 2023 and a 1.3% average decrease over the first five months of 2024. 

Compounding these biological issues are regulatory changes, specifically the phase-out of derogation, which historically allowed farmers to use higher manure levels to boost production. With stricter nitrogen emission and manure management rules now in place, the number of dairy cows per farm is capped, further limiting milk output. 

In summary, combining the bluetongue virus and regulatory shifts, such as the end of derogation, has led to a notable reduction in Dutch milk production.

Diverse Trends in EU Milk Supply: Poland’s Surge Amid Ireland’s Struggles

CountryMilk Supply Change (April 2024)
Poland+5%
Germany+0.6%
France0%
Ireland-8%

The European Union’s milk supply has seen a notable rise, with a 0.6% increase in April and a 1.1% growth over the year’s first four months. Poland’s impressive 5% increase and Germany’s slight uptick have significantly boosted the EU’s overall supply. However, Ireland struggles with an 8% decline, and France’s growth has stagnated. These contrasts highlight the complexities within the European dairy market.

Stability Amid Complexity: European Milk Prices Buoyed by Sustainability Initiatives and Bonuses

CompanyPrice in May (€ per 100 kg)Change (€ per 100 kg)Sustainability Premium (€ per 100 kg)
Milcobel44.100.000.78
Laiterie des Ardennes (LDA)44.10+0.500.49
DMK Deutsches Milchkontor eG44.10+0.510.50
Hochwald eG44.100.000.80
Arla44.10+0.452.44
Capsa Food44.10+0.06
Valio44.100.00
Savencia44.10-0.09
Danone44.10-0.03
Lactalis44.10-0.18
Sodiaal44.100.000.29
Saputo Dairy UK44.10+0.05
Dairygold44.10+1.08
Tirlan44.10+0.150.50
Kerry Agribusiness44.10-0.190.10
FrieslandCampina44.10+0.471.21
Emmi44.10-0.62
Fonterra44.10+0.32
United States class III44.10-0.29

Since January, European milk prices have remained stable, around 44 euros per 100 kg. In May, the average was 44.10 euros per 100 kg, a slight increase of 0.07 euros from April. This steadiness is due to sustainability premiums and bonuses, including rewards for participating in sustainability programs, GMO-free milk, and other environmentally friendly practices. Such incentives buffer producers from market fluctuations and contribute to the stability of milk prices.

Global Dairy Dynamics: Diverging Trends Highlight the EU’s Stable Milk Supply Amid Global Volatility

CountryApril 2024 Milk Supply Change (%)January-April 2024 Milk Supply Change (%)
Poland+5.0+3.8
Germany+0.8+1.1
France0.0+0.5
Ireland-8.0-6.5
Netherlands-1.6-1.3

In the global dairy market, trends vary widely among significant exporters. Australia has recently shown resilience with a 3% growth. Conversely, the United States and New Zealand faced declines, with the US seeing a slight decrease and New Zealand a more significant 4% drop

The situation is more severe in South America. Argentina’s milk production shrank by 16%, and Uruguay’s fell by 7% in April, highlighting regional challenges. In contrast, the combined volume of significant dairy exporters, including the EU, saw a modest 0.3% increase (0.35 billion kg) up to April 2024. These trends illustrate the diverse fortunes and impacts in the global dairy market.

Market Dichotomy: Butter Price Volatility Versus Skimmed Milk Powder’s Competitive Pressures

ProductDatePrice (€/100 kg)
Butter3/7/24670
Butter29/5/24668
Butteravg. 2023476
Skimmed Milk Powder3/7/24241
Skimmed Milk Powder29/5/24248
Skimmed Milk Powderavg. 2023242

The European dairy market paints a nuanced picture of butter and skimmed milk powder pricesButter prices saw significant volatility in early 2024, rising sharply from mid-May to early June before stabilizing due to unexpectedly cool summer temperatures reducing cream demand. This stabilization has introduced uncertainty into the butter market. 

Conversely, skimmed milk powder prices have been relatively stable but face competitive pressures from cheaper US and Oceania imports. Demand unpredictability, especially in Asian markets, has also contributed to minor price decreases through June, highlighting ongoing challenges in the market.

The Bottom Line

The European market presents a mix of trends as the Dutch milk supply declines due to biological and regulatory challenges. However, the EU sees growth, driven by Poland, while Ireland faces declines. European milk prices, buoyed by sustainability premiums and bonuses, remain stable amid global volatility. Globally, the EU’s stability contrasts with declines in New Zealand and Argentina. These contrasting trends underscore the potential for growth and the need for innovation and collaboration within the global dairy sector. 

The dairy sector is currently grappling with biological strains, regulatory burdens, and economic challenges, all impacting profitability and market consolidation. Smaller farms are particularly at risk. In this context, strategic adaptive measures and support systems are crucial. It’s a call to action for policymakers, stakeholders, and farmers to unite, using sustainability initiatives to counter economic strains and ensure food security. The industry’s resilience is evident, but proactive regulation, sustainability, and financial support are essential. A combined effort is needed to enhance dairy farming. This analysis underscores the need for innovation and collaboration within the global dairy sector.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Dutch milk supply has continued its downward trend, recording a 1.6 percent decrease in May 2024 as compared to May 2023, attributed to the bluetongue virus and changes in derogation policies.
  • Despite the Dutch decline, the overall milk supply in the European Union increased by 1.1 percent over the first four months of 2024, driven by significant growth in Poland and slight increases in Germany, while Ireland’s output fell sharply.
  • European milk prices have shown remarkable stability, averaging around 44 euros per 100 kg since January 2024, buoyed by various sustainability surcharges and bonuses across different countries and companies.
  • Globally, major dairy exporters illustrated mixed trends, with Australia’s supply growing, while Argentina and New Zealand experienced substantial declines.
  • The Dutch dairy product market exhibited volatility, notably in butter prices, while skimmed milk powder prices faced competitive pressures from cheaper US and Oceania products, leading to slight decreases in June.

Summary:

The Dutch dairy industry is experiencing a’milk lake’ due to a decline in production due to the bluetongue virus outbreak and regulatory changes. The EU’s milk supply has increased, with Poland and Germany contributing to the overall supply. Ireland and France are struggling with declines. Sustainability premiums and bonuses contribute to market stability and milk prices. Global dairy market trends vary among exporters, with Australia showing resilience with a 3% growth, while the US and New Zealand face declines. South America’s situation is more severe, with Argentina’s milk production shrinking by 16% and Uruguay’s falling by 7%. Policymakers, stakeholders, and farmers must unite to counter economic strains and enhance dairy farming.

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New Zealand Exports to U.S. Hit Record $5.4 Billion Amid Strong Demand and Kiwi Dollar Decline

Uncover the dynamics behind New Zealand’s record $5.4 billion in exports to the U.S. Delve into the factors driving this growth, from robust demand to the depreciation of the kiwi dollar.

With an 8.9% rise from the year before, New Zealand’s exports to the United States have jumped to an extraordinary NZ$8.8 billion ($5.4 billion). High demand for New Zealand’s goods and a reasonable exchange rate—the Kiwi currency dropping 3.3% versus the US dollar—drive this increase. “The strong market demand and currency shifts have bolstered New Zealand’s export potential,” said an expert from Statistics New Zealand. American customers have looked for goods like meat, dairy products, and wine. On the other hand, relationships with other vital allies like Australia have displayed different patterns.

Shifting Horizons: New Zealand’s Strategic Diversification in Global Trade 

Geographic remoteness and great agricultural and marine resources have dramatically influenced New Zealand’s export scene. Originally primarily dependent on the British market, the country today boasts a varied export portfolio, including China, Australia, the United States, Japan, and the European Union, and engages essential trade partners.

Driven by strong demand for dairy, beef, and lumber, China has become New Zealand’s top export destination. With exports topping NZ$10 billion by 2018, the 2008 free-trade deal between New Zealand and China, which eliminated tariffs on many goods, spurred this expansion.

Australia is still a critical economic partner because of the Closer Economic Relations (CER) trade deal signed in 1983. Notwithstanding current volatility, which includes [specific examples of volatility], the geographical closeness and bilateral solid relations guarantee continuous commerce in food items, manufactured goods, and equipment.

From the 1980s to the late 2010s, trade with the United States has changed progressively. However, a recent trend shows growing demand for New Zealand’s luxury food and beverage exports, especially wine, dairy, and meat.

New Zealand constantly changes its export plans to maintain economic resilience and reduce market volatility. This is particularly clear in the global financial crisis when diversification has proven essential. The increase in U.S. exports highlights a calculated attempt to enter the American solid market at advantageous exchange rates, which involved proactive engagement with American buyers, leveraging favorable trade agreements, and capitalizing on the consumer demand for premium-quality products. 

Economic Catalysts: The U.S. Market’s Robust Demand and Kiwi Dollar Depreciation 

Many economic factors have spurred the rise in New Zealand’s exports to the United States. Most importantly, the strength of the American economy has contributed to this. Over the last year, the United States has enjoyed rising consumer expenditures, industrial expansion, and a strong employment market, driving demand for premium imports like those from New Zealand.

Furthermore, the devaluation of the New Zealand currency has improved its export competitiveness. With the Kiwi currency depreciating 3.3% versus the US dollar, New Zealand products have been more reasonably priced for US consumers, increasing demand.

The attraction of New Zealand’s primary export goods—wine, dairy, and meat—has produced a welcoming trading climate. This synergy between a robust U.S. market and advantageous exchange rates shows New Zealand’s export performance.

Contrasting Fortunes: U.S. Growth, Australian Decline, and China’s Dominance

The image of New Zealand’s exports shows complexity. Thanks to American robust demand and the devaluation of the Kiwi currency, exports to the United States reached a record NZ$8.8 billion, an 8.9% rise over last year. By contrast, exports to Australia dropped 2.4%, falling from a mid-year record of NZ$9.1 billion to NZ$8.7 billion, mainly owing to lower demand for industrial items such as mechanical gear. With sales of NZ$17.9 billion, China still ranks New Zealand’s biggest export market. This varied export performance emphasizes how urgently strategic adaptability is needed in New Zealand’s trade strategies.

Quality Drives Demand: Wine, Dairy, and Meat Propel New Zealand’s Record-Breaking U.S. Exports

New Zealand’s record exports to the U.S. are powered mainly by high demand for winedairy products, and meat. These products align well with U.S. consumer preferences and market needs. 

Wine exports have surged by 38% over the past year. New Zealand’s Sauvignon Blanc and Pinot Noir are highly acclaimed for their quality, benefiting from the country’s unique climate and soil, which appeal to discerning U.S. consumers. 

Dairy products have seen increased demand due to their high quality and nutritional value. New Zealand’s grass-fed dairy aligns with the preferences of health-conscious and organic-seeking U.S. consumers. The country’s strict farming practices ensure the purity of its products. 

Meat exports are thriving thanks to U.S. demand for premium lamb and beef. New Zealand’s free-range, grass-fed livestock practices produce flavorful, ethically, and sustainably sourced meat that appeals to American consumers. 

The Kiwi dollar’s decline against the U.S. dollar boosts New Zealand’s export competitiveness, making its quality products more affordable for American buyers.

Seasonal Synergy: The Summer Surge Behind New Zealand’s Export Peaks

Given the particular environment of the southern hemisphere, New Zealand’s export numbers are much shaped by seasonal elements. From December to February, the summer of New Zealand marks the maximum fruit and vegetable harvest. May has become a vital export month, falling after harvest and the beginning of the world shipping season. This scheduling guarantees that exports such as apples and kiwifruit arrive at markets fresh, increasing quantities and value. The summer also improves crop quality, which appeals to foreign consumers of New Zealand’s goods.

Beyond agriculture, summer supports viticulture, among other industries. Strong grape yields and ideal harvesting circumstances in the summer months help the wine business. Therefore, May observed a boom in wine exports, which helped explain the increase in exports. Although the summer temperature less affects dairy and meat products, the favorable agricultural surroundings increase general production and effect. The record-breaking export numbers in May reflect this seasonal synergy, which emphasizes the critical part seasonal elements play in the export dynamics of New Zealand.

The Bottom Line

The record NZ$8.8 billion exports to the United States best captures New Zealand’s nimble trade approach. Driven by American steady demand and the devaluation of the Kiwi currency versus the U.S. dollar, this milestone emphasizes New Zealand’s capacity to exploit economic circumstances. Premium wine, dairy, and meat goods from New Zealand appeal especially to American consumers. On the other hand, declining Australian consumption and China’s relentless supremacy expose changing patterns in New Zealand’s export markets.

New Zealand is poised to profit from its strong trade links and quality products. Particularly in the southern hemisphere summer, seasonal maxima will keep increasing export quantities. Maintaining competitiveness, however, will depend on being alert about changing consumer tastes in essential areas such as China, Australia, and the United States, as well as monetary change. Stressing quality and strategic orientation will also be crucial to maintaining and surpassing these record export levels.

Key Takeaways:

  • New Zealand’s exports to the United States reached a record NZ$8.8 billion ($5.4 billion) in the 12 months through May, marking an 8.9% increase from the previous year.
  • While the U.S. market surged, exports to Australia experienced a decline of 2.4% year-over-year to NZ$8.7 billion.
  • China maintains its position as New Zealand’s largest export market, with NZ$17.9 billion in sales, accounting for 26% of total exports.
  • The usability of the kiwi dollar played a crucial role, as its 3.3% decline against the U.S. dollar enhanced the competitiveness of New Zealand goods in the American market.
  • May alone witnessed record-breaking exports of NZ$7.2 billion, with the U.S. accounting for NZ$1.02 billion due to high demand for wine, dairy products, and meat.
  • New Zealand’s export numbers typically peak in May, aligning with the end of the southern hemisphere summer and the height of the fruit and vegetable season.

Summary: 

New Zealand’s exports to the United States have reached an impressive NZ$8.8 billion ($5.4 billion), driven by high demand for its goods and a reasonable exchange rate. This growth is attributed to strong market demand and currency shifts, as American customers are seeking meat, dairy products, and wine. New Zealand’s strategic diversification in global trade is influenced by its geographical remoteness and great agricultural and marine resources. The country has a diverse export portfolio, including China, Australia, the United States, Japan, and the European Union, and engages essential trade partners. China has become New Zealand’s top export destination due to strong demand for dairy, beef, and lumber. Australia remains a critical economic partner due to the Closer Economic Relations (CER) trade deal signed in 1983. New Zealand constantly changes its export plans to maintain economic resilience and reduce market volatility, particularly during the global financial crisis when diversification is essential.

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How Cheese Exports and China’s Demand are Powering the US Dairy Economy in 2024

Explore how record cheese exports and changes in China’s demand are impacting the US dairy economy in 2024. Will the industry continue to grow despite global challenges? 

The U.S. dairy industry will start strong in 2024. The industry is hopeful and wary, given record-breaking cheese exports and shifting Chinese demand. “Record exports and increased domestic demand are positive,” Kathleen Noble Wolfley from Ever.Ag said, noting the encouraging patterns. These elements are guiding the American dairy industry toward a year of promise.

Positive Trends Amid Challenges: U.S. Dairy Economy Sees Record-Breaking Cheese Exports and Bolstered Domestic Demand 

With record-breaking cheese exports of 75 million pounds and a 15% increase in domestic demand, the U.S. dairy business shows good trends despite obstacles. Cheese exports increased by 75 million pounds over the previous year, currently reaching markets in Mexico, South Korea, and Japan. Kathleen Noble Wolfley from Ever.Ag observed that this change relieved the domestic pricing pressures projected in 2023.

Mexico stands out by buying 35% of U.S. cheese exports. This solid demand worldwide and higher local consumption are driven by extensive brand campaigns, which provide a balanced market situation.

Looking forward to the remainder of 2024, these patterns indicate a bright future for the American dairy sector despite possible obstacles. Study more.

Unpredictability in Key Export Markets: The Emerging Challenges in China and Mexico

Export market concerns are intensifying in China and Mexico, where unpredictability is rising. Political developments in Mexico and a depreciated peso are complicating exports. This devaluation of money throws additional doubt on the commercial relationship, potentially leading to reduced purchase volumes and increased competition in other markets, exacerbating pressures on U.S. surplus management and pricing strategies.

China’s lower imports have meanwhile upset predicted market stability. According to reports, China could soon start exporting, intensifying rivalry and forcing American dairy farmers to seek fresh markets for expansion through [specific strategies].

Increasing Global Competition: Navigating the Challenges Posed by Decreased Shipping Costs and Strategic Trade Agreements

The growing competitiveness of other dairy-exporting nations resulting from lowered transportation costs adds to the complexity of the U.S. dairy export business. This allows nations such as Australia, New Zealand, and the European Union to present their dairy goods at more reasonable rates through strategic pricing, advanced logistics, and favorable trade agreements. 

These nations’ speedier and cheaper delivery of goods, made possible by logistically efficient systems, disadvantages American exports. Furthermore, their good trade deals with China suggest that American manufacturers might find it difficult to maintain their market dominance in this vital area.

Further complicating the scene is China’s possible change in dairy import preferences depending on price and supply dependability. To be competitive in a market going more and more price-sensitive, U.S. exporters must continually innovate or cut prices.

Retail and Foodservice Boost: The Dynamic Role of Domestic Cheese Demand in the U.S. Dairy Economy

The U.S. dairy business is greatly affected by the growing domestic demand for cheese, particularly in the retail and catering industries. Major corporations are luring more customers with creative marketing, such as customized digital campaigns targeting specific demographics, and appealing discounts, such as buy-one-get-one-free offers. Restaurants have also ingeniously included cheese on their menus, driving more consumption. 

The higher demand might raise cheese prices. Promotions drive regular customer purchases that rapidly deplete stocks and call for more manufacturing activity. Complicating the situation are “rolling brownouts” brought on by bovine influenza A in dairy manufacturing.

Sustained strong demand might drive cheese prices higher, causing stores to cut discounts to protect profit margins. This could lead to

shifts in consumer purchasing behavior, potentially decreasing overall cheese consumption as higher prices push budget-conscious shoppers toward more affordable alternatives. This delicate dance between maintaining market attractiveness through promotions and responding to the economic realities of supply and demand underscores the complex and dynamic character of the dairy market in 2024.

Assessing the Current Landscape: Production Challenges and Market Dynamics in the U.S. Dairy Industry 

The U.S. dairy economy, though consistent, has experienced a slight drop in output compared to previous years. A significant factor contributing to this decline is Bovine Influenza A, often referred to as avian influenza in cows. This disease exacerbates the reduction in production, leading to what experts call “rolling brownouts”—periods of lowered output in affected herds. Typically, these rolling brownouts result in a 10% decline in milk production for about two weeks, followed by a recovery period of another two weeks.

Another major problem is the great expense and unavailability of heifers necessary for herd replenishment and expansion. This restricted availability tightens the milk supply and poses significant challenges for farmers hoping to increase their activities. These production difficulties draw attention to the intricate dynamics in the American dairy sector, which calls for farmers’ resilience and flexibility.

Forecasting Futures: Navigating Price Volatility and Strategic Planning for the U.S. Dairy Industry’s Year-End

Ever.Ag projects Class III futures ranging from $18 to $20 per hundredweight and Class IV ranging from $20 to $22 for the remainder of 2024. These forecasts suggest a cautiously optimistic outlook for the U.S. dairy industry, indicating potential price stability and favorable margins for producers. However, market volatility still poses significant challenges even with these hopeful forecasts. “We will continue to see volatility in these markets,” Kathleen Noble Wolfley notes, emphasizing the necessity of strategic planning as the year progresses. She also underscores the need for awareness and flexibility, advising industry stakeholders to remain vigilant and adaptive in response to rapid market shifts.

The Bottom Line

Despite the challenges, the U.S. dairy industry, buoyed by record cheese exports and increased local demand, is poised for a promising 2024. The industry’s resilience in navigating the erratic nature of key markets like China and Mexico, along with the ability to manage reduced herd growth and illness effects, instills confidence in its stakeholders. The key to success lies in adapting to these changing dynamics for strategic orientation and maintaining good margins.

Key Takeaways:

  • Record U.S. cheese exports in the initial months of 2024 have helped alleviate domestic market saturation.
  • Increased domestic demand for cheese in both restaurants and stores is buoying the market.
  • Key export markets like China and Mexico are becoming less predictable due to political and economic fluctuations.
  • Decreased shipping costs may result in increased global competition, potentially undercutting U.S. dairy prices.
  • Bovine influenza A is causing intermittent declines in milk production, further tightening the already constrained supply.
  • The high cost and limited availability of heifers are hindering farmers from expanding their herds.
  • Ever.Ag forecasts continued market volatility, with class III futures expected between $18 and $20 per hundredweight, and class IV between $20 and $22.

Summary: 

The U.S. dairy industry is expected to start strong in 2024, driven by record-breaking cheese exports and a 15% increase in domestic demand. However, the industry faces challenges such as unpredictability in key export markets like China and Mexico, which may lead to reduced purchase volumes and increased competition in other markets. The growing competitiveness of other dairy-exporting nations adds complexity to the U.S. dairy export business. Domestic cheese demand plays a significant role in the U.S. dairy economy, with major corporations attracting customers through creative marketing and attractive discounts. However, higher demand might raise cheese prices, leading to stores cutting discounts to protect profit margins. This could lead to shifts in consumer purchasing behavior, potentially decreasing overall cheese consumption. Despite these challenges, the U.S. dairy industry is poised for a promising 2024, with resilience in navigating key markets, managing reduced herd growth, and adapting to changing dynamics for strategic orientation and maintaining good margins.

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