Archive for 2024

Australia’s Milk Production Surges: Insight for Dairy Farmers on Future Growth Trends

See how Australia’s milk rise affects global dairy. What could this mean for your farm’s future? Check out the latest insights and forecasts.

Summary: According to Rabobank’s latest Global Dairy Quarterly report, Australia’s dairy industry is on a path to recovery, with milk production increasing by 3.1% to 8.4 billion liters in the 2023/24 season. However, the growth is expected to slow to 1.5% in the 2024/25 season. Critical regions like New South Wales are seeing significant gains, while areas like western Victoria face challenges due to dry conditions. Globally, the dairy market is balanced yet remains sensitive to changes, with modest growth projected for the world’s major dairy-exporting regions. Despite the mixed seasonal conditions and economic pressures, Michael Harvey, RaboResearch’s senior dairy analyst, emphasizes Australia’s crucial role in global milk production, advocating for strategic adaptation to navigate the evolving landscape with a cautiously optimistic outlook.

  • Milk production in Australia rose by 3.1% in the 2023/24 season, reaching 8.4 billion liters.
  • Rabobank forecasts a slower growth rate of 1.5% for Australian milk production in the 2024/25 season.
  • New South Wales achieved a notable 5.3% increase in milk production.
  • Western Victoria faces production challenges due to dry conditions.
  • The global dairy market is balanced but sensitive to changes, with modest growth expected from major dairy-exporting regions.
  • Economic pressures and mixed seasonal conditions present challenges, but strategic adaptation is crucial for future success.
  • Michael Harvey of RaboResearch highlights Australia’s critical role in global milk production.

According to Rabobank’s recently issued Global Dairy Quarterly report, Australia’s milk output increased by 3.1% in the 2023/24 season to an astonishing 8.4 billion liters, up 249 million liters from the previous year. RaboResearch’s senior dairy analyst, Michael Harvey, said, “Seasonal conditions remain mixed across the key dairying regions.” Western Victoria and South Australia have had significant rainfall shortfalls in 2024, although circumstances elsewhere have been mainly beneficial. But what does this imply for you, the dairy farmer?

Australia’s Milk Production Surges by 3.1% in 2023/24 Season, with Notable Growth in New South Wales

Australia’s milk production is rising, with a 3.1% increase during the 2023-24 season, which ended in June. This increase increased overall output to an astonishing 8.4 billion liters, up 249 million liters from the previous year. Leading this rise, New South Wales demonstrated exceptional performance, with a 5.3% increase in milk output, signaling a bright and promising future for the province.

However, growth could have been more consistent throughout all areas. Western Victoria, a central milk-producing region, had output restrictions owing to extreme dry weather, demonstrating the significant disparity in regional agricultural dynamics. We acknowledge and deeply respect the resilience of our dairy producers in the face of these challenges. Despite these discrepancies, the overall picture of Australian milk production remains encouraging.

Adaptive Strategies: Navigating Mixed Seasonal Conditions in Australia’s Dairy Heartland

Seasonal conditions remain varied in Australia’s primary dairying areas. Western Victoria and South Australia are dealing with severe rainfall shortages, drastically reducing milk output. These dry circumstances cause issues with feed supply and overall agricultural output. In sharp contrast, several places have had better weather. For example, New South Wales saw a tremendous increase, partly thanks to improved seasonal circumstances that let local farmers raise milk output. These geographical variances highlight the need for adaptive dairy farming tactics, enabling farmers to reduce adverse weather effects while capitalizing on favorable circumstances when feasible.

Global Dairy Market: A Delicate Balance Amidst Unpredictable Growth 

The global dairy market is delicately situated and very vulnerable to change. In recent years, milk production growth has been erratic in the ‘Big Seven exporting regions’: the EU, the United States, New Zealand, Australia, Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay. These regions are significant players in the global dairy market, and their production trends can substantially impact worldwide supply and prices.

These main dairy-exporting areas are expected to develop modestly. Rabobank forecasts a 0.14% year-on-year increase in milk production in 2024, with a more hopeful 0.65% growth in 2025. These minor increases, although insignificant, may significantly influence global supply-demand dynamics. Improved farmer margins, driven by higher dairy prices and lower feed costs, are expected to boost output. Still, this increase must be assessed in light of more significant market changes.

Dairy producers in certain parts of the globe deal with mixed demand and retail price deflation. This complex environment necessitates deliberate adjustments to sustain profitability and fulfill market demands. The expected minor increase in milk production provides a glimpse of stability. Still, the market’s vulnerability to abrupt fluctuations means vigilance and adaptation remain critical for farmers globally.

Boosted Margins and Lower Feed Costs: A Catalytic Shift in Early 2024 Milk Production Trends

The economic situation has influenced milk production patterns, especially in early 2024. Strong dairy prices and lower feed costs have combined to produce a more advantageous operating environment for dairy farmers. These high market prices for dairy products have significantly increased farmer margins, enabling more investments in production capacity. Lower feed prices have further decreased operating expenditures, making it economically feasible for farmers to boost production. This convergence of positive economic variables has boosted farmer morale and spurred a noticeable increase in milk production, paving the way for possibly greater supply levels in the following years.

Forecasting the Future: Rabobank Anticipates a Cautious Yet Promising Growth in Global Milk Supply 

Rabobank anticipates Australia’s milk output will expand at a more moderate pace of 1.5% in 2024/25, down from a significant 3.1% increase the previous year. Several variables contribute to this more conservative projection, including regional differences in seasonal circumstances. While New South Wales has grown significantly, dry weather in western Victoria and South Australia is expected to limit output. Despite these hurdles, the general outlook remains cautiously hopeful as the business adjusts to changing environmental and economic conditions.

Looking forward, Rabobank’s milk production predictions are cautiously hopeful. In 2024, supply from the Big-7 dairy exporting areas is predicted to increase by just 0.14% yearly. While this increase represents a steady but modest recovery, the forecast for 2025 seems more hopeful. Initial projections predict that these leading players’ output might climb by 0.65% yearly, indicating a considerable increase that could push global milk supply over the five-year average. This predicted gain highlights a more significant market resurgence fueled by higher farmer profits and favorable weather, offering a hopeful outlook for the future.

Challenges and Opportunities in the Evolving Landscape of Australian Dairy Farming 

As Australian dairy producers negotiate the changing terrain, various obstacles arise. Farmers may face margin squeezes due to falling farmgate milk prices, lower cull cow prices, and heifer export volumes. These factors cumulatively reduce financial margins for many businesses, forcing them to reconsider their cost structures and operational efficiency.

Despite these challenges, significant possibilities emerge. Expanded dairy exports, fuelled by recent growth in milk output and worldwide demand, seem promising. Furthermore, the optimistic forecast for grain prices may dramatically lower feed costs, alleviating some financial stresses and allowing for more sustainable agricultural techniques.

Adapting to these economic realities and seizing new possibilities might be critical for Australian dairy producers. With careful planning and persistence, balancing overcoming obstacles and capitalizing on development opportunities may pave the road for a more robust and sustainable dairy business.

Strategic Adaptation: Turning Slower Growth into a Pathway for Innovation and Sustainability

Farmers confront problems and chances to adapt as the dairy industry’s milk output growth is expected to decrease. Strategic cost management, diversity, and technical investments are critical to profitability. But how can you effectively use them on your farm?

First, analyze your cost structures. Operational efficiency may greatly influence your bottom line, so carefully review your feed and labor expenditures. Lower feed prices in the first half of 2024 have boosted farmer profits, and capitalizing on these improvements via bulk purchase or alternative, cost-effective feed solutions may make a significant impact.

Another important tactic is diversity. Expanding into new income sources, such as dairy products (such as cheese or yogurt) or agritourism, may help to ensure financial stability. Diversifying crops and animals may reduce the risks associated with milk production volatility.

Investment in technology is equally important. Advanced milking systems, automated feeding technology, and precision agricultural instruments may improve efficiency and output. Implementing these technologies may involve an initial investment but result in long-term savings and higher productivity.

Furthermore, instilling a resilient attitude in your team and closely monitoring market circumstances can enable agile reactions to an ever-changing marketplace. Continuous education and training may help your employees embrace new techniques and technology.

Although the slower increase in milk output poses problems, it also allows dairy farmers to improve their operations. Farmers may maintain and grow income despite industry swings by concentrating on cost control, diversification, and technological investment. How do you intend to adapt to these changes?

The Bottom Line

Australia’s dairy industry is on the right track, with milk output expected to increase by 3.1% in 2023/24. This development, although spectacular, differs significantly between areas, with New South Wales leading the way and western Victoria struggling owing to dry circumstances. The global dairy industry retains a fragile equilibrium, vulnerable to shift, but exhibiting indications of resilience in early 2024 with higher profits and reduced feed prices. As the market adapts, Rabobank expects a slight rise in global milk supply through 2024, with a more hopeful view for 2025.

In such a dynamic climate, dairy producers must remain current on market trends and seasonal circumstances. Navigating these changes efficiently might be the difference between just surviving and flourishing.

So, how can you effectively prepare for these changes and transform obstacles into chances for success in your dairy business? The future of dairy farming presents problems and opportunities—are you prepared to grab them?

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Global Dairy Shifts: What Dairy Farmers Need to Watch Out For

Find out how global dairy market shifts affect U.S. and Indian farmers. What do these changes mean for your dairy business? Keep reading to learn more.

Summary: Have you ever wondered how global dairy markets are evolving and what it means for you as a dairy farmer? The Idele conference in Paris highlighted industry trends, from growth and consumption to varied pricing across regions. Key insights revealed that Asia drives much of the global production growth, while Europe and North America see modest increases. India stands out for its massive milk production yet remains complicated in market dynamics. Meanwhile, economic challenges in China add layers of uncertainty to the global picture. “Growth in milk production has stopped in Europe and the United States, with demand showing signs of weakness in China and milk margins still offering few incentives in surplus areas,” said Gérard You from Idele. In 2023, global dairy experienced a moderate growth of 1.3% to 950 million tonnes, with Asia being the most significant contributor. The EU-27 saw a 0.3% increase in milk output, China experienced a 7.1% growth, and India climbed by 2.5%. However, milk production is slowing in Europe and the United States, while demand weakens. 

  • Global milk production increased by 1.3% in 2023, reaching 950 million tonnes, with Asia contributing the most to this growth.
  • EU-27 saw a minimal increase in milk output by only 0.3%, while China and India experienced significant growth of 7.1% and 2.5% respectively.
  • Milk prices varied significantly across regions, with France seeing an increase, while New Zealand and the US experienced sharp declines.
  • International dairy trade slightly decreased to 88 million TEL in 2023, with the EU-27, New Zealand, and the US being the top exporters.
  • India remains the leading global milk producer, with its production largely divided among self-consumption, informal markets, and industrial collection.
  • The global dairy market outlook for 2024 is marked by uncertain demand, particularly due to economic challenges in China and stagnant production in Europe and the US.
  • India’s dairy sector faces significant political and environmental challenges, yet there’s a strong drive to increase exports, which might require opening borders to imports.
  • Despite being a significant player, China’s dairy market is dealing with economic instability, overproduction, and declining demand post-COVID-19 pandemic.
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Imagine waking up to discover that the rules of the dairy game had radically altered overnight. Have you ever considered how your farm is part of a more extensive, interconnected system of global dairy production? These surprising developments are not just a matter of curiosity; they have the potential to significantly impact your agricultural choices and success. Let’s delve into what’s going on and why it’s crucial for you to stay informed and adapt to these global trends.

Global Dairy Market: Surprising Shifts and Key Insights from the Idele Conference

As addressed at the Idele conference, milk output in the global dairy industry has grown moderately, by 1.3%, to 950 million tonnes in 2023. Asia was the most significant contributor, accounting for 10 million tons, followed by Europe and North America. However, production patterns differed by country; the EU-27 had a 0.3% increase, while China saw a significant 7.1% growth, and India climbed by 2.5%. This diversified environment emphasizes the many characteristics of the global dairy market.

Regional Dynamics: The Complex Interplay of Global Milk Production 

When reviewing production patterns in key dairy-producing regions, it is evident that some are undergoing considerable changes. Let’s start with China and India, which have seen significant growth in milk output. In 2023, China’s milk output increased by an astonishing 7.1%. This expansion is consistent with the country’s continuous attempts to increase food self-sufficiency, as Jean-Marc Chaumet of CNIEL reported. He highlighted that China’s agricultural output increased by 5% 2023 over the previous year.

India, the world’s largest milk producer, is also experiencing a steady increase. With more than 200 million tons of milk produced by 70-80 million farmers, India’s output is set to rise by 2.5% in 2023. The country’s gradual development underscores its potential to play a significant and positive role in the global dairy industry. As Marion Cassagnou of ATLA points out, ‘There is a strong political will to export, but the country will have to open its borders to imports, potential game-changer for the global dairy market.’

In comparison, milk output in the EU-27 increased just 0.3% in 2023. This tiny increase suggests a more stable market in Europe, where production has hit a plateau. According to Gérard You from Idele, milk production has slowed in Europe and the United States while demand is weakening.

Furthermore, output stability is visible in the six primary exporting basins: Belarus, Argentina, Australia, New Zealand, the United States, and the EU-27. These areas enjoyed 0.9% growth in the first half of 2023 but decreased in the second half, resulting in a flat yearly collection with just a 0.2% rise over 2022. This stability implies that some areas increase fast while others maintain output levels, indicating a diversified and reassuringly stable global dairy market environment.

And Now: What’s the Deal with Milk Prices? A Rollercoaster Ride for Dairy Farmers! 

Price variations keep dairy producers on their toes—when you believe you understand what to anticipate, the market shifts—sometimes dramatically. Let’s look at producer milk pricing in various nations in 2023.

In France, dairy producers may have sighed with relief when prices rose. The producer price rose to €471 per kilogram, a 6% rise over the previous year. This rise may be seen as a much-needed boost in a tumultuous market.

Meanwhile, things were not looking so good on the other side. In New Zealand, the producer price fell to €344 per kilogram, a 22% drop from 2022. The United States followed suit, with prices plummeting to €430 per kilogram, a 22% reduction.

However, the narrative still needs to finish there. The drop was not restricted to particular nations; it affected the price of dairy components globally. For example, the cost of butter fell by 22%, while low-fat powdered milk fell by 31%. These developments have far-reaching consequences for farmers and everyone else engaged in the dairy industry.

Understanding these swings and being updated is critical for dairy professionals. Are you prepared for what could happen next?

World Dairy Trade: Who’s In and Who’s Out in 2023?

Regarding international commerce, dairy products have recently experienced some promising developments. Despite being an essential item, trade volume fell marginally in 2023. The worldwide trade in dairy products was projected at 88 million tonnes of milk equivalent (TEL), down by around 1 million TEL from 2022.

Three significant actors dominate this trade: the EU-27, New Zealand, and the United States. These export powerhouses account for 68% of the worldwide dairy trade. The EU-27 continues to dominate, with its share growing to 26 million TEL, closely followed by New Zealand with 20 million TEL. Conversely, the United States had a modest drop, exporting 13 million TEL.

China, Mexico, and Algeria are the biggest importers, accounting for approximately 25% of total commerce. Asia dominates the worldwide dairy trade, accounting for 56% of the total. The region’s ravenous thirst for dairy emphasizes its importance in the business.

Gérard, you accurately stated, “In 2024, the global dairy market is mainly marked by uncertain global demand.” Market instability is apparent, with a 9% reduction in the value of worldwide commerce, reaching €73 billion in 2023, mainly owing to falling dairy commodity prices such as butter and milk powder.

2024 and Beyond Navigating the Uncertainty of the Global Dairy Market 

As we approach 2024, the global dairy market remains to be seen. Critical variables such as stalled milk production growth in Europe and the United States contrast sharply with China’s sluggish demand signals. Gérard You of Idele highlights that the global dairy scene is entangled in a web of uncertainty, with market volatility tempering cautious optimism.

Milk production growth, which was previously strong, has slowed significantly. Both typically robust dairy markets, Europe and the United States, suffer stagnation. Production levels have plateaued, posing possible issues for farmers and industry partners. The current downturn may indicate a long-term trend unless market circumstances change significantly.

Meanwhile, China’s appetite for dairy goods, which formerly supported global markets, shows weakness. A slow economy, significant young unemployment, and altering consumer preferences after COVID-19 have all impacted dairy demand. The penetration rate and purchase frequency have declined, resulting in a supply excess that the market is straining to absorb.

According to You, the dominant emotion for 2024 is one of careful watchfulness. “Growth in milk production has stopped in Europe and the United States, with demand showing signs of weakness in China and milk margins still offering few incentives in surplus areas,” he says. His assessment of a “moderately quiet” year reflects a global market on the verge of turmoil, with supply and demand remaining precariously balanced.

India: A Complex Giant in the Global Dairy Market 

India’s involvement in the global dairy sector is extensive and complicated. Did you know India is the world’s largest producer of milk? With over 200 million tons generated by 70-80 million producers, this quantity alone is astonishing. But let’s explore what this implies for the nation and the globe.

First, India’s milk production is separated into three primary markets: self-consumption, informal, and collecting. Marion Cassagnou states that these divisions are critical to the dairy sector’s operations. Self-consumption accounts for 46% of output, translating to around 95 million tons. The informal market accounts for 29%, or 60 million tons, while the collection market, which includes private industrials and cooperatives, contributes 25%, or 52 million tonnes.

This divided market system poses issues, particularly for small-scale producers. Around 75% of breeders have just 1-2 cows yet contribute considerably to livestock, accounting for 40% of the total. Most of these farmers are landless and have little access to water, making their livelihoods very fragile. Cassagnou said that “54% of India faces high to extremely high water stress,” highlighting the challenges these small-scale growers encounter.

It’s fascinating to compare the dynamics of huge and small farms. While more giant farms with more than 200 cows have begun to appear since 2000, they still account for a small percentage of the entire sector. Small dairy operators with 3-20 cows and farming crops and fodder account for a larger market share.

Despite these problems, milk consumption in India is gradually growing, owing to a youthful population, urbanization, and rising earnings. This expansion is mirrored in the predictions, which indicate that output might reach 321 million tons by 2032 under favorable circumstances, as underlined by Cassagnou.

However, India’s contribution to exports could be more extensive and irregular. While a solid political resolve exists to increase exports, India must open its borders to imports to assist with this development. The nation remains strongly protectionist, with state-supported dairy cooperatives limiting the opportunities for private producers and foreign corporations.

So, what is the takeaway? India’s dairy industry is a powerhouse with enormous potential, but it confronts severe challenges, particularly for small-scale farmers. With changing market dynamics and rising demand, the future may provide both possibilities and difficulties for this critical industry.

China’s Dairy Market: Wrestling with Economic Storms Post-COVID

China’s economic environment has been unstable, significantly influencing the dairy sector. Lower customer demand has proven to be a key concern after Covid-19. Jean-Marc Chaumet of CNIEL identified the weakening real estate industry, high young unemployment, and shrinking GDP as the causes of the lower average price, purchase frequency, and penetration rate of dairy products.

Despite this, China’s agricultural output increased by 5% in 2023 compared to 2022, with beef production growing by 22% between 2016 and 2023. Dairy output increased 36% from 2018 to 2023, with a 6.7% increase between 2022 and 2023. This spike is primarily due to the expansion of enormous farms.

Between 2020 and 2022, China constructed or planned 562 new dairy farms with a total capacity of more than 3.77 million heads. Seventy percent of these farms are enormous, with over 10,000 heads. By 2023, 164 new projects had employed 980,000 employees, underscoring the size of these activities.

However, vast farms have issues. Since 2022, rising production costs and falling milk prices have imposed economic strain on farmers. “In 2023 and 2024, large dairy farms lost money, and the construction of new farms slowed down,” Chaumet told me. Furthermore, half of China’s dairy cows now live on farms with more than 1,000 heads, leading smaller farms to perish. Concurrently, Chinese dairy imports have fallen since 2022, indicating a troubling market trend.

The Bottom Line

The worldwide dairy market environment is dynamic and complicated, influenced by regional production patterns, shifting pricing, and unexpected demand. From Asian nations’ substantial impact on milk production growth to the unpredictable milk prices farmers face in New Zealand and the United States, there are numerous challenges and opportunities. The main actors in international commerce emphasize high-value dairy products, but the economic challenges of emerging giants like India and China suggest that the future is far from assured. Staying current on global trends is critical for dairy farmers, especially those in the United States and India, and the lessons from the Idele conference highlight the need for adapting agricultural techniques to these evolving trends. In a continually changing market, proactive flexibility may be key to success in the coming years.

Learn more: 

Global Dairy Market Poised for Recovery: Prices Set to Rise Through 2024

Is the global dairy market set for a comeback? Discover how rising prices and shifting supply dynamics could impact the industry through 2024.

A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., on Friday, September 7, 2018. Photographer: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg

The global dairy market is at a pivotal point, transitioning towards higher prices in 2024. Rabobank’s latest report indicates that dairy commodity prices have bottomed out and are set to rise. By the end of 2023, the market faced limited new milk supply and sluggish demand, resulting in soft commodity pricing due to weak fundamentals. 

“2023 was marked by soft dairy commodity pricing from weaker fundamentals,” says Michael Harvey, senior dairy analyst at Rabobank. Despite a brief resurgence, global supply growth faltered due to lower milk prices, high costs, and weather disruptions. The global market anticipated a Chinese rebalancing, only to see significant import shortfalls for the second year. 

“There is growing evidence that the bottom in the dairy commodity markets has passed, and prices are likely to climb through 2024,” Rabobank’s report notes, offering a cautiously optimistic outlook.

“There is growing evidence that the bottom in the dairy commodity markets has passed, and prices are likely to climb through 2024,” Rabobank’s report notes, offering a cautiously optimistic outlook.

A Year of Turbulence: Factors Contributing to the 2023 Global Dairy Market Slump 

2023 witnessed a convergence of challenges that softened global dairy commodity prices. Firstly, limited milk supply growth defined the year, as brief surges were hindered by falling milk prices and rising operational costs. Additionally, severe weather disruptions worsened supply chain inefficiencies, affecting production in crucial dairy regions.  

Higher input costs, from feed to energy, strained dairy farms worldwide, making it difficult to stay profitable. Unpredictable environmental conditions further challenged the agricultural sector‘s resilience.  

The market also felt the impact of China’s reduced dairy imports. As the largest dairy importer, China’s decreased demand created significant ripples. The nation’s internal oversupply and economic slowdown led to a substantial drop in dairy imports for the second consecutive year.  

These elements not only drove down dairy commodity prices but also brought increased uncertainty and volatility, setting a cautious yet hopeful tone for 2024.

Navigating Uncertainty: Rabobank’s Analysis Signals Renewed Optimism for the Dairy Market’s Resurgence 

Rabobank’s latest analysis offers a hopeful outlook for the global dairy market, indicating that the worst is over for dairy commodity prices. The report predicts a gradual price rise through 2024, promising stability and growth for an industry struck by recent challenges. Farmers and producers, who have faced fluctuating prices and high costs, can now anticipate a more favorable economic environment. Thus, the story of the global dairy market is evolving from turmoil to resurgence, paving the way for potential growth and new opportunities.

China’s Stabilizing Influence: Opportunities for Global Dairy Importers Amid Steady Demand

China has long been a critical player in the global dairy market, significantly influencing commodity prices with its import patterns. In 2024, China’s import volume is expected to stabilize, a contrast to the substantial shortfalls of the past two years. This steady demand could reduce some of the erratic fluctuations in global markets. 

This stabilization provides other importers with a chance to build their stocks. With China’s steady demand, nations might acquire dairy commodities at competitive prices, strengthening their reserves without the pressure of Chinese-driven demand surges. As the market transitions, global importers must keenly observe these signals to manage stock levels strategically, potentially easing the volatility experienced in recent years.

Price Volatility: A Multidimensional Challenge for 2024 

Price volatility will be a significant challenge in 2024, influenced by various factors. Geopolitical instability, with regional conflicts and trade disputes, can disrupt supply chains and affect dairy markets through tariffs and export bans. 

Energy market fluctuations, driven by changing oil prices and the shift to renewable sources, directly impact dairy production and distribution costs. Irregular energy pricing can lead to unpredictable dairy commodity prices. 

Weak global economic conditions also play a role. Economic sluggishness reduces consumer purchasing power and government budgets, affecting discretionary spending on premium dairy products and complicating dairy pricing. 

Inflationary pressures further complicate the picture. Rising raw materials, labor, and transportation costs may force dairy producers to increase prices. However, if consumer demand doesn’t support these hikes, the market could experience high production costs and low retail prices. 

Navigating the dairy market in 2024 will require careful monitoring of these risks. Industry stakeholders must remain vigilant and develop strategies to mitigate geopolitical, energy, and economic disruptions to maintain stability.

Outlook for Grain and Oilseed Prices: A Double-Edged Sword for Dairy Farmers in 2024

Rabobank’s 2024 forecast suggests a slightly softer outlook for grain and oilseed prices. This is attributed to an expected increase in global feed grain supply, which is favorable for dairy farm margins. Lower feed grain costs are anticipated to support dairy farmers in a volatile market. However, some commodities like palm oil may have more bullish outlooks, potentially adding cost pressures. 

Reduced grain and oilseed prices can enhance farmgate margins by lowering a significant variable cost in dairy farming. This relief is vital as dairy producers deal with high operational expenses and fluctuating milk prices. By easing some financial burdens, better feed cost prospects could boost profitability and stabilize production despite uncertain commodity pricing and geopolitical risks.

Strategic Shifts in the EU Dairy Market: Anticipating Milk Price Dynamics and Export Challenges for 2024 

Looking to the first half of 2024, the EU dairy market faces complex milk price dynamics and export challenges. Rabobank expects EU milk prices to rise, driven by recent gains in European dairy commodity prices and lower stock levels. Notably, several major dairy processors in northwest Europe have already increased milk prices for late 2023. 

However, EU milk deliveries are forecast to decline by 0.5% year-on-year in Q1 and 0.4% in Q2 of 2024, indicating structural weaknesses. The second half of 2024 might see a slight decline of 0.2% year-on-year, suggesting a slow recovery. 

EU export price competitiveness remains a concern due to high farmgate milk prices compared to global competitors. Despite these challenges, year-on-year volume growth is expected for Q4 2024, although supply limitations and a modest domestic demand recovery could impact results.

The US Dairy Market’s Path to Recovery: Forecasted Growth and Strategic Adjustments for 2024

The US dairy market is set for a modest recovery in 2024, with a predicted 1% growth in milk production year-on-year. Despite the herd size dropping to 9.37 million in October 2023, the lowest since January 2022, gradual expansion is expected throughout 2024. This growth aims to meet rising domestic and global demand

Rabobank projections for first half 2024 price Class III milk at $17.78/cwt and Class IV at $19.24/cwt. Full-year estimates are $18.38/cwt for Class III and $20.37/cwt for Class IV, with Class IV consistently priced higher. These forecasts reflect a market transitioning through cautious optimism and strategic adjustments.

New Zealand and Australia: Navigating Production Declines and Export Challenges in 2024 

New Zealand’s dairy sector faces a challenging outlook, with full-season production forecasted to decline by up to 2% year-on-year beyond the first half of 2024. This outlook is influenced by cautious budgeting, which affects farming practices and potentially impacts milk flows in the latter half of the season. Animal health management will be essential for a robust start to the 2024-2025 season, but intensified milking efforts due to lower forecasted milk prices could strain herd health. 

Despite record farmgate milk prices buffering the sector from global fluctuations in Australia, dairy exports have significantly declined. Export volumes dropped by more than 13% year-on-year in the first three months of the new season, with notable reductions in milk powder ingredients, bulk cheese, and butter. The liquid milk segment also saw a 30% year-on-year decrease. A tight domestic milk supply and high farmgate milk prices relative to significant competitors partly explain this decline. 

Additionally, Australia’s butter and cheese imports increased by 43% and 21% year-on-year, respectively. Domestic purchasing behaviors are shifting due to an income squeeze, with dairy purchases outperforming other discretionary food items but still showing some volume declines. The stabilization of Australia’s exportable surplus over 2023-2024 depends on a recovery in milk supply, though export competitiveness remains an immediate concern.

The Bottom Line

The global dairy market is cautiously moving towards recovery in 2024. Rabobank’s observations note an upward price trend, following the softness seen in 2023. Modest milk supply growth, better feed costs, and improved demand, particularly from China, foster this positive outlook. 

Significant factors include stabilizing China’s import volume, strategic shifts in the EU, forecasted US milk production growth, and adjustments in New Zealand and Australia. Potential volatility due to geopolitical instability, energy market fluctuations, and macroeconomic uncertainties are also acknowledged. However, with strategic adjustments and risk mitigation, the sector is prepared for a steady recovery. 

While challenges remain, signs of recovery are evident. Stakeholders must stay vigilant, adapt strategies, and leverage insights to navigate the complexities of 2024, ensuring resilience and growth in a dynamic market. 

Key Takeaways:

  • The global dairy market is transitioning from a period of low commodity prices with a projected upward trend through 2024.
  • China’s steady import demand is crucial for driving price rallies in the Oceania region, and stabilized import volumes are expected in 2024.
  • Price volatility is anticipated due to geopolitical instability, volatile energy markets, and weak macroeconomic conditions.
  • A softer grain and oilseed price outlook will improve dairy farm margins globally.
  • EU milk prices are anticipated to strengthen in early 2024, yet export competitiveness may remain challenging due to high farmgate milk prices.
  • US dairy production shows a slow yet steady growth forecast with specific price estimates for Class III and IV milk segments.
  • New Zealand dairy production is expected to decline, while Australia faces reduced export competitiveness amid high domestic farmgate milk prices.
  • Overall, the 2024 outlook indicates cautious optimism with potential recovery driven by strategic shifts and stabilizing factors in critical markets.

Summary:

The global dairy market is facing a critical point, with Rabobank’s report indicating that dairy commodity prices are set to rise in 2024. By the end of 2023, the market faced limited new milk supply and sluggish demand, leading to soft commodity pricing. Despite a brief resurgence, global supply growth faltered due to lower milk prices, high costs, and weather disruptions. The market anticipated a Chinese rebalancing but saw significant shortfalls in imports for the second year. Rabobank’s analysis suggests a gradual rise in prices through 2024, promising stability and growth for the industry. However, price volatility will be a significant challenge in 2024, influenced by geopolitical instability, energy market fluctuations, weak global economic conditions, and inflationary pressures.

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How Cheese Exports and China’s Demand are Powering the US Dairy Economy in 2024

Explore how record cheese exports and changes in China’s demand are impacting the US dairy economy in 2024. Will the industry continue to grow despite global challenges? 

The U.S. dairy industry will start strong in 2024. The industry is hopeful and wary, given record-breaking cheese exports and shifting Chinese demand. “Record exports and increased domestic demand are positive,” Kathleen Noble Wolfley from Ever.Ag said, noting the encouraging patterns. These elements are guiding the American dairy industry toward a year of promise.

Positive Trends Amid Challenges: U.S. Dairy Economy Sees Record-Breaking Cheese Exports and Bolstered Domestic Demand 

With record-breaking cheese exports of 75 million pounds and a 15% increase in domestic demand, the U.S. dairy business shows good trends despite obstacles. Cheese exports increased by 75 million pounds over the previous year, currently reaching markets in Mexico, South Korea, and Japan. Kathleen Noble Wolfley from Ever.Ag observed that this change relieved the domestic pricing pressures projected in 2023.

Mexico stands out by buying 35% of U.S. cheese exports. This solid demand worldwide and higher local consumption are driven by extensive brand campaigns, which provide a balanced market situation.

Looking forward to the remainder of 2024, these patterns indicate a bright future for the American dairy sector despite possible obstacles. Study more.

Unpredictability in Key Export Markets: The Emerging Challenges in China and Mexico

Export market concerns are intensifying in China and Mexico, where unpredictability is rising. Political developments in Mexico and a depreciated peso are complicating exports. This devaluation of money throws additional doubt on the commercial relationship, potentially leading to reduced purchase volumes and increased competition in other markets, exacerbating pressures on U.S. surplus management and pricing strategies.

China’s lower imports have meanwhile upset predicted market stability. According to reports, China could soon start exporting, intensifying rivalry and forcing American dairy farmers to seek fresh markets for expansion through [specific strategies].

Increasing Global Competition: Navigating the Challenges Posed by Decreased Shipping Costs and Strategic Trade Agreements

The growing competitiveness of other dairy-exporting nations resulting from lowered transportation costs adds to the complexity of the U.S. dairy export business. This allows nations such as Australia, New Zealand, and the European Union to present their dairy goods at more reasonable rates through strategic pricing, advanced logistics, and favorable trade agreements. 

These nations’ speedier and cheaper delivery of goods, made possible by logistically efficient systems, disadvantages American exports. Furthermore, their good trade deals with China suggest that American manufacturers might find it difficult to maintain their market dominance in this vital area.

Further complicating the scene is China’s possible change in dairy import preferences depending on price and supply dependability. To be competitive in a market going more and more price-sensitive, U.S. exporters must continually innovate or cut prices.

Retail and Foodservice Boost: The Dynamic Role of Domestic Cheese Demand in the U.S. Dairy Economy

The U.S. dairy business is greatly affected by the growing domestic demand for cheese, particularly in the retail and catering industries. Major corporations are luring more customers with creative marketing, such as customized digital campaigns targeting specific demographics, and appealing discounts, such as buy-one-get-one-free offers. Restaurants have also ingeniously included cheese on their menus, driving more consumption. 

The higher demand might raise cheese prices. Promotions drive regular customer purchases that rapidly deplete stocks and call for more manufacturing activity. Complicating the situation are “rolling brownouts” brought on by bovine influenza A in dairy manufacturing.

Sustained strong demand might drive cheese prices higher, causing stores to cut discounts to protect profit margins. This could lead to

shifts in consumer purchasing behavior, potentially decreasing overall cheese consumption as higher prices push budget-conscious shoppers toward more affordable alternatives. This delicate dance between maintaining market attractiveness through promotions and responding to the economic realities of supply and demand underscores the complex and dynamic character of the dairy market in 2024.

Assessing the Current Landscape: Production Challenges and Market Dynamics in the U.S. Dairy Industry 

The U.S. dairy economy, though consistent, has experienced a slight drop in output compared to previous years. A significant factor contributing to this decline is Bovine Influenza A, often referred to as avian influenza in cows. This disease exacerbates the reduction in production, leading to what experts call “rolling brownouts”—periods of lowered output in affected herds. Typically, these rolling brownouts result in a 10% decline in milk production for about two weeks, followed by a recovery period of another two weeks.

Another major problem is the great expense and unavailability of heifers necessary for herd replenishment and expansion. This restricted availability tightens the milk supply and poses significant challenges for farmers hoping to increase their activities. These production difficulties draw attention to the intricate dynamics in the American dairy sector, which calls for farmers’ resilience and flexibility.

Forecasting Futures: Navigating Price Volatility and Strategic Planning for the U.S. Dairy Industry’s Year-End

Ever.Ag projects Class III futures ranging from $18 to $20 per hundredweight and Class IV ranging from $20 to $22 for the remainder of 2024. These forecasts suggest a cautiously optimistic outlook for the U.S. dairy industry, indicating potential price stability and favorable margins for producers. However, market volatility still poses significant challenges even with these hopeful forecasts. “We will continue to see volatility in these markets,” Kathleen Noble Wolfley notes, emphasizing the necessity of strategic planning as the year progresses. She also underscores the need for awareness and flexibility, advising industry stakeholders to remain vigilant and adaptive in response to rapid market shifts.

The Bottom Line

Despite the challenges, the U.S. dairy industry, buoyed by record cheese exports and increased local demand, is poised for a promising 2024. The industry’s resilience in navigating the erratic nature of key markets like China and Mexico, along with the ability to manage reduced herd growth and illness effects, instills confidence in its stakeholders. The key to success lies in adapting to these changing dynamics for strategic orientation and maintaining good margins.

Key Takeaways:

  • Record U.S. cheese exports in the initial months of 2024 have helped alleviate domestic market saturation.
  • Increased domestic demand for cheese in both restaurants and stores is buoying the market.
  • Key export markets like China and Mexico are becoming less predictable due to political and economic fluctuations.
  • Decreased shipping costs may result in increased global competition, potentially undercutting U.S. dairy prices.
  • Bovine influenza A is causing intermittent declines in milk production, further tightening the already constrained supply.
  • The high cost and limited availability of heifers are hindering farmers from expanding their herds.
  • Ever.Ag forecasts continued market volatility, with class III futures expected between $18 and $20 per hundredweight, and class IV between $20 and $22.

Summary: 

The U.S. dairy industry is expected to start strong in 2024, driven by record-breaking cheese exports and a 15% increase in domestic demand. However, the industry faces challenges such as unpredictability in key export markets like China and Mexico, which may lead to reduced purchase volumes and increased competition in other markets. The growing competitiveness of other dairy-exporting nations adds complexity to the U.S. dairy export business. Domestic cheese demand plays a significant role in the U.S. dairy economy, with major corporations attracting customers through creative marketing and attractive discounts. However, higher demand might raise cheese prices, leading to stores cutting discounts to protect profit margins. This could lead to shifts in consumer purchasing behavior, potentially decreasing overall cheese consumption. Despite these challenges, the U.S. dairy industry is poised for a promising 2024, with resilience in navigating key markets, managing reduced herd growth, and adapting to changing dynamics for strategic orientation and maintaining good margins.

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