Milk production in Texas increased 190% from 2001 to 2020 (from 5.1 billion to 14.8 billion pounds), the largest increase in milk production in the U.S. Consequently, Texas went from being No. 10 to No. 5 in milk production as stated in a previous article published here. Piñeiro and Spencer (2020) also mentioned Texas would soon surpass New York in milk production if both states continued to grow at the same rate. Now, the imminent expansion of milk processing capacity in the Panhandle may position Texas as the No. 3 dairy state in the country within the next five years.
As the end of 2021 approaches, Texas will finish the year with a milk production very similar and perhaps slightly higher than the state of New York. Based on the rate of growth in milk production for the last five years (Table 1), the projected milk production for New York and Texas for 2021 will be 15.6 billion and 15.7 billion pounds, respectively (Figure 1).
Furthermore, assuming the rate of growth remains stable, Texas’ milk production will be similar to that of Idaho by 2022 and will surpass Idaho by 2023 (Figure 1).
Notably, in 2020 Texas and New Mexico combined produced 10.3% of the milk in the U.S. (23 billion of the 223 billion pounds produced in the country), highlighting the economic importance of the dairy industry for this region. Milk production for 2020 in Texas and New Mexico was 14.83 billion pounds and 8.17 billion pounds, respectively, the vast majority (roughly 80%) produced in eastern New Mexico and northwest Texas. Compared to 2019, both states combined produced 1 billion pounds more milk in 2020, mostly due to the 0.9 billion pound increase in milk production in Texas.
Why is milk production increasing in Texas?
Texas’ increased milk production is primarily due to an increase of dairy cattle in the Texas Panhandle (Table 2). Texas dairy cattle inventory increased an average of 4.6% annually for the last five years, 3.3 times faster than Idaho and 23 times faster than New York (a state that is rather stable). Texas dairy cattle inventory doubled from 2002 to 2021, going from roughly 310,000 dairy cows to over 625,000 today (Figure 2). This increase in cattle inventory occurred mainly in the Texas High Plains region that had less than 20,000 dairy cows in 2001 and now has more than 475,000 dairy cows.
However, increased growth of dairy cow inventory was not the only factor leading to increased milk production in Texas. Improvements in genetic selection, nutrition, reproductive performance and management practices also contributed.
Will Texas ever surpass Wisconsin or California?
It is very unlikely that Texas will ever produce more milk than Wisconsin or California, and practically impossible that it could happen in the short or medium term (i.e., within the next 10 years). Wisconsin milk production was 30.7 billion pounds in 2020, roughly double that of Texas. Milk production in California, the leading state in the U.S., was 41.3 billion pounds in 2020. Water scarcity remains one of the main challenges for the Texas Panhandle. Dairy farmers are maximizing water efficiency and adding more economic value to water use compared to cash crops. Further improving water efficiency use with new irrigation technologies, drought-tolerant crops, hydroponic systems and management practices considering soil health, among other strategies, will be key in the future.
Source: Texas AM Extension
