Milk production for 2017 is forecast higher as improved forage availability and continued favorable feed costs are expected to support gains in milk per cow. Cow numbers are expected to remain near 2016 levels. Commercial exports on both a fat and skim-solids basis are forecast higher as expected tighter world supplies and increasing demand lead to expanded export opportunities. Imports are forecast lower as domestic production increases. With stronger domestic and export demand, cheese, nonfat dry milk (NDM), and whey prices are forecast higher but butter prices are forecast lower. The Class III price is forecast higher on stronger cheese and whey prices, and the Class IV price is forecast higher as a weaker butter price is more than offset by the higher NDM price. The all milk price is forecast higher than 2016 at $15.25 to $16.25 per cwt.
Milk production in 2016 is forecast higher than last month, as the cow inventory is expected to expand slightly and growth in milk per cow during the first half of the year is forecast higher. Imports are raised on both a fat and skim-solids basis; exports on a fat basis are raised but are unchanged on a skim-solids basis. Cheese, butter, and NDM prices are forecast lower on weaker demand and larger supplies, but whey prices are raised. Both Class III and Class IV prices are reduced. The milk price is forecast lower at $14.60 to $15.10 per cwt.
Source: United States Department of Agriculture
