Find out why U.S. milk production has been decreasing for the past 10 months. Learn how cow numbers and milk output per cow are affecting the dairy industry. Read more.
The USDA’s preliminary May Milk output report shockingly reveals a consistent drop in U.S. milk output extending for ten months. With May showing a 1% decline from the same month last year, this steady dip points to significant shifts within the dairy sector. The continuous drop has changed the scene of milk output worldwide and pushed industry players to change their plans.
The ten-month run of low milk supply draws attention to systematic problems U.S. dairy producers face: narrow revenue margins, changing feed prices, and bad weather.
Reviewing the USDA’s data, we see:
- U.S. milk production fell to 19.68 billion pounds in May 2024, down 0.9% from the previous year.
- Cow numbers decreased by 68,000 head, reflecting broader herd management strategies.
- The average milk production per cow dropped by 3 pounds, influenced by various regional factors.
| Metric | May 2024 | May 2023 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Milk Production (billion pounds) | 19.68 | 19.86 | -0.9% |
| U.S. Cow Numbers (million) | 9.35 | 9.418 | -68,000 head |
| Average Milk per Cow (pounds) | 2,105 | 2,108 | -3 pounds |
| 24-State Milk Production (billion pounds) | 18.875 | 19.009 | -0.7% |
| 24-State Cow Numbers (million) | 8.893 | 8.945 | -52,000 head |
| 24-State Average Milk per Cow (pounds) | 2,122 | 2,125 | -3 pounds |
A Deeper Dive into USDA’s May 2024 Dairy Estimates
| Category | May 2024 | May 2023 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Milk Production (billion pounds) | 19.68 | 19.86 | -0.9% |
| U.S. Cow Numbers (million head) | 9.35 | 9.42 | -68,000 head |
| U.S. Average Milk per Cow (pounds) | 2,105 | 2,108 | -3 pounds |
| 24-State Milk Production (billion pounds) | 18.88 | 19.01 | -0.7% |
| 24-State Cow Numbers (million head) | 8.89 | 8.94 | -52,000 head |
| 24-State Average Milk per Cow (pounds) | 2,122 | 2,125 | -3 pounds |
The early projections for May 2024 from the USDA show significant changes in American dairy output. Down 0.9% from May 2023, the total U.S. milk output is 19.68 billion pounds. 9.35 million, U.S. cow counts have dropped 68,000 head from the previous year. Down three pounds year over year, the average milk output per cow is 2,105 pounds.
Milk output in the 24 central dairy states dropped 0.7% from May 2023, coming to 18.875 billion pounds. Down 52,000 head from the year before, cow counts in these states are 8.893 million. With an average milk yield per cow of 2,122 pounds, the milk output has slightly dropped from the previous year—3 pounds less.
Delving into the Dynamics of Cow Numbers: A Tale of Decline and Resurgence
| Year | Total U.S. Cow Numbers (millions) | 24-State Cow Numbers (millions) |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 9.45 | 8.92 |
| 2021 | 9.50 | 8.95 |
| 2022 | 9.47 | 8.91 |
| 2023 | 9.35 | 8.84 |
| 2024 | 9.35 | 8.89 |
Cow counts from the USDA show declining and then rising trends. The U.S. dairy herd dropped 68,000 head starting in May 2023, underscoring continuous industry difficulties. However, there has been a slight rise since October 2023, which has driven herd size to its most significant since late 2023.
The 24 central dairy states had a similar trend. From the year before, the combined herd of these states dropped 52,000 head, yet it somewhat recovered with a 5,000 head rise from April 2024. This points to a partial recovery in certain areas while others continue to suffer.
It’s important to note the stark differences at the state level. While Florida and South Dakota saw a gain of 27,000 heads, New Mexico experienced a dramatic drop of 42,000 heads. These variations underscore the influence of local elements such as climate, feed availability, and state-by-state economic forces.
Interwoven Influences on Milk Output per Cow: The Balance of Weather, Feed Costs, and Income Margins
| State | May 2024 (lbs) | May 2023 (lbs) | Change (lbs) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | 2,000 | 1,970 | 30 | 1.52% |
| Minnesota | 2,210 | 2,180 | 30 | 1.38% |
| Wisconsin | 2,100 | 2,075 | 25 | 1.20% |
| Illinois | 2,150 | 2,120 | 30 | 1.42% |
| Iowa | 2,300 | 2,270 | 30 | 1.32% |
| Kansas | 2,120 | 2,100 | 20 | 0.95% |
| California | 2,050 | 2,075 | -25 | -1.20% |
| Vermont | 2,000 | 2,025 | -25 | -1.23% |
| Pennsylvania | 1,980 | 2,005 | -25 | -1.25% |
| Indiana | 2,100 | 2,125 | -25 | -1.18% |
Income margins, feed prices, and regional weather have all played a role in the decline in milk yield per cow. Adverse weather patterns, such as droughts or excessive rainfall, can impact feed and water availability, which in turn can influence cow health and output. High feed prices might drive farmers to choose less nutritious substitutes, which can also affect milk output. These factors highlight the need for a comprehensive approach to address the issue, including strategies to manage weather risks and stabilize feed prices.
Income margins are crucially important. Tight margins often force difficult choices on herd management, reducing expenditures on premium feed or healthcare and, therefore, affecting milk yield per cow.
States like Florida, Minnesota, and Wisconsin reported increases in milk yield, up 15 to 30 pounds per cow, presumably owing to better local circumstances and enhanced procedures compared to year-to-year improvements.
States like California, Vermont, Pennsylvania, and Indiana reported losses of 15 to 25 pounds per cow, on the other hand. California’s ongoing drought and other difficulties, such as changing feed prices and economic pressures, highlight the careful balance between environmental elements and farming methods.
The Bottom Line
The USDA report by May shows a continuous drop in important dairy indicators—ten consecutive months of declining U.S. milk output; May 2024 down about 1% over last year. Though there have been some recent increases, national cow counts have dropped by 68,000 head. Because of regional variations in feed prices, weather, and economic constraints, milk yield per cow decreased somewhat.
These patterns point to a declining milk supply, which would be expected to raise milk prices. This change in prices could benefit medium-sized manufacturers, but it also poses challenges for the sector, including high feed prices and economic difficulties. These factors are driving the industry towards farm consolidation and increased use of technology. The decline in milk output also underscores the need for innovation and policy support to ensure sustainable development in the sector.
Given these trends, it’s clear that the sector needs to innovate to counter these challenges. Strategies such as improving feed efficiency, genetic selection, and dairy management could prove beneficial. Moreover, policy support is not just beneficial, but crucial for ensuring sustainable development in the industry.
Key Takeaways:
- U.S. milk production for May 2024 is estimated at 19.68 billion pounds, a decrease of 0.9% compared to May 2023.
- U.S. cow numbers have dropped to 9.35 million, down 68,000 head from the same month last year.
- The average milk production per cow in the U.S. has marginally declined by 3 pounds, totaling 2,105 pounds per cow.
- In the 24 major dairy states, milk production is down 0.7%, with total output at 18.875 billion pounds.
- These 24 states have seen a reduction in cow numbers by 52,000, now standing at 8.893 million.
- Despite the overall decline, some states like Florida and South Dakota show robust growth in cow numbers and milk output.
- Conversely, significant decreases in milk production have been observed in states such as New Mexico and California.
Summary:
The USDA’s preliminary May Milk output report shows a 1% decline in U.S. milk output for ten months, indicating significant shifts within the dairy sector. The ten-month run of low milk supply is attributed to narrow revenue margins, changing feed prices, and bad weather. The total U.S. milk output is 19.68 billion pounds, with cow numbers decreasing by 68,000 head. The average milk production per cow dropped by 3 pounds, influenced by regional factors. The U.S. dairy herd dropped 68,000 heads starting in May 2023, underscoring industry difficulties. However, there has been a slight rise since October 2023, driving herd size to its most significant since late 2023. Interwoven influences on milk output per cow include income margins, feed prices, and regional weather. States like Florida, Minnesota, and Wisconsin reported increases in milk yield, while California, Vermont, Pennsylvania, and Indiana reported losses.
Learn more:
- Sustained Dip in Milk Production for Eighth Month; Low Cheese Prices Impede Farmers’ Profit Margin Recovery: Rabobank Report
- USDA Reveals Sharp Decline in March 2024 Milk Production Across Top Dairy States
- Is 2024 Shaping Up to Be a Disappointing Year for Dairy Exports and Milk Yields?
