USDA has cut 2023 dairy production and cow inventories and 2024 estimates. Friday’s supply and demand report showed lower 2023 milk production due to fewer cows and slower milk output per cow increase.
USDA expects 228.3 billion pounds of milk output this month and 226.9 billion pounds in December.
Fat and skim-solids imports for 2023 remained maintained, while cheese and butter fat imports may drop 2024 forecasts. Fat exports fell in 2023, whereas skim-solids exports rose. Fat exports will grow in 2024 as butter and cheese costs become more competitive. 2024 skim-solids exports remain constant.
Cheese prices are lower than whey prices in 2024, lowering Class III milk costs. Butter and nonfat dry milk estimates raised Class IV costs. The 2023 national average all milk price projection remains at $20.60 per cwt, while the 2024 forecast drops to $20.00.
The January 31 USDA Cattle Report will reflect producer plans to keep dairy heifers for breeding.
