Researchers discovered that New Zealand is one of just a few island countries that might continue to produce enough food to sustain its people through a nuclear winter.
According to a new study led by Professor Nick Wilson of the University of Otago in Wellington and independent researcher Dr Matt Boyd of Adapt Research, five island nations, including New Zealand, may be well positioned to continue producing food despite reduced sunlight and cooler temperatures caused by soot in the atmosphere following a nuclear war in the Northern Hemisphere. Even in a harsh nuclear winter, Australia (an island continent), Iceland, Vanuatu, and the Solomon Islands were projected to have substantial food self-sufficiency.
Their findings have been published in the international journal Risk Analysis. While New Zealand was expected to continue producing adequate food, Professor Wilson said the country’s severe reliance on imported goods, such as refined gasoline, posed a danger to food production and delivery.
The researchers evaluated the worldwide effect of sudden reductions in sunlight induced by nuclear war, major volcanic eruptions, or asteroid impacts on agricultural productivity. They used existing agricultural models under ‘nuclear winter’ circumstances to estimate food calorie supply for 38 island countries, integrating this with other methodologies. They also looked at a variety of resilience elements that may shield nations from the effects of a nuclear winter. Dr. Boyd believes that although some other countries may be able to produce adequate food, other issues such as the collapse of industry and social functioning call their resilience into question. The results, according to Professor Wilson, are consistent with a 1980s research on the effect of nuclear war on New Zealand, albeit the country’s resilience has diminished since then as its reliance on imported fuel and digital infrastructure has risen. “Islands such as New Zealand are frequently heavily reliant on imports of refined liquid petroleum, may lack energy self-sufficiency and are subject to breakdowns and shortages of vital commodities. While New Zealand has the potential to divert a large percentage of its dairy exports to feed the domestic market, it lacks the ability to produce numerous replacement components for agricultural and food processing gear.”
According to Dr. Boyd, the study’s results underline the vulnerable situation that many nations would find themselves in amid a worldwide disaster.
“New Zealand has the ability to sustain an industrial civilization through this type of tragedy, but it is not ‘plug-and-play’. A significant amount of strategic planning is required, over a lengthy period of time, although this preparation would be beneficial in coping with a broad variety of severe risks.”
According to Dr. Boyd, the results demonstrate the need of analysing nuclear winter and other rapid sunlight-reducing scenarios as part of a complete national risk assessment. “We are not aware of any preparation for this type of global calamity, particularly if objectives for rationing have been addressed.
“With the Government about to announce New Zealand’s first National Security Strategy this year, it’s critical that the catastrophic dangers connected with sudden sunshine reduction scenarios don’t fall through the cracks.”
