Discover why May 2024 saw the lowest dairy cull cow numbers since 2016. How are herd reductions and milk income margins impacting the dairy industry? Read more.
Significantly changing the dairy sector, May 2024 witnessed the lowest number of dairy cull cows sold via U.S. slaughter facilities since 2016. The leading causes of this drop are smaller milking herds, fewer replacement heifers, and better milk-earning margins. These elements are driving dairy producers to make calculated decisions, hence lowering the cow slaughter for meat. This tendency will significantly change the sector.
| Region | May 2024 Cull Cow Marketing (Head) |
|---|---|
| Upper Midwest (IL, IN, MI, MN, OH, WI) | 56,000 |
| Southwest (AZ, CA, HI, NV) | 49,300 |
| Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Virginia | 32,300 |
| Alaska, Idaho, Oregon, Washington | 28,800 |
| Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas | 23,900 |
May 2024 Dairy Cull Cow Marketing Hits Eight-Year Low, Illustrating Market Shift
May 2024 marked a significant shift in the dairy cull cow market, as the most recent USDA statistics, as of June 20, revealed that 216,101 dairy cull cows were sold via American slaughter facilities. This figure represents the lowest May total since 2016, a decrease of 22,101 from April and 33,000 less than May 2023. These numbers underscore the notable changes in the dairy cull cow market.
Consistent Declines in Dairy Cull Cow Marketing Signal Systemic Shifts in Herd Management
The year-to-date patterns in the dairy industry are indicative of a significant change. For 37 consecutive weeks, the number of dairy cows sold for meat has been lower than the previous year. This trend, coupled with a 280,000 head drop from the year before, points to structural changes in herd management and market circumstances. These changes are expected to have a profound impact on dairy supply dynamics.
Comparative Daily Averages Reveal Significant Year-Over-Year Decline in Dairy Cow Slaughter
| Date Range | Daily Cull Rate (2023) | Daily Cull Rate (2024) |
|---|---|---|
| May 1-7 | 10,400 | 9,700 |
| May 8-14 | 10,500 | 9,600 |
| May 15-21 | 10,200 | 9,500 |
| May 22-31 | 10,100 | 9,600 |
Twenty-six non-holiday weekdays and Saturdays in May 2024 witnessed dairy cow slaughter averaging 9,600 head per workday day. This is below the daily average of 10,500 heads from May 2023, which shows a decline of around 900 heads per business day and reflects more general industry developments.
USDA Data Highlights Slight Herd Expansion and Historic Low in Year-to-Date Cull Rates
| Year | Herd Size (Millions) |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 9.32 |
| 2017 | 9.37 |
| 2018 | 9.42 |
| 2019 | 9.39 |
| 2020 | 9.38 |
| 2021 | 9.36 |
| 2022 | 9.31 |
| 2023 | 9.33 |
| 2024 | 9.35 |
USDA forecasts that the dairy cow herd in May 2024 was 9.35 million, a slight rise from April of 5,000 cows. May’s around 2.3% culling rate suggests ongoing changes in herd management. With 1 201,800 dairy cull cows handled year-to-date (January to May), there is a drop of 161,400 from the previous year. Since 2014, this is the lowest four-month cull total to begin a year, reflecting notable improvements in dairy culling policies, most likely resulting from a tighter market for replacement heifers and improved milk revenue margins.
Regional Analysis of Dairy Cull Cow Figures Reveals Divergent Herd Management Strategies
| Region | Dairy Cull Count (Head) |
|---|---|
| Upper Midwest (IL, IN, MI, MN, OH, WI) | 56,000 |
| Southwest (AZ, CA, HI, NV) | 49,300 |
| MD, DE, PA, WV, VA | 32,300 |
| AK, ID, OR, WA | 28,800 |
| AR, LA, NM, OK, TX | 23,900 |
When examining the regional cull cow numbers, the Upper Midwest stands out with 56,000 head. This figure highlights the region’s large dairy businesses and the financial constraints they face, providing a unique perspective on the industry.
Reflecting its excellent dairy infrastructure and intelligent herd management to maximize output, the Southwest followed with 49,300 head.
With a methodical approach to herd management, including changing market circumstances and milk production costs, the total in Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Virginia was 32,300 head.
With 28,800 head for Alaska, Idaho, Oregon, and Washington, the figure indicates modest herd declines brought on by local dairy market dynamics.
With Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas included, the South Central area reported 23,900 head, reflecting careful but intentional changes in herd numbers impacted by feed availability and economic conditions.
Comprehensive Data Collection by USDA Ensures Accurate Representation of Dairy Cull Trends
The USDA’s Livestock Slaughter report, a cornerstone of our analysis, is based on information from about 900 federally inspected and almost 1,900 state-inspected or custom-exempt slaughter facilities. This comprehensive data collection ensures an accurate representation of dairy cull trends, providing stakeholders with vital information for well-informed decisions and reflecting national trends in dairy Cull Cow marketing.
The Bottom Line
The most recent USDA figures show a clear drop in dairy cull cow marketing, the lowest May totals since 2016. Fewer replacement heifers, a smaller milking herd, and better milk-earning margins explain this decline. The unprecedented low in cull rates seen year-to-date points to a purposeful change in herd management. Regional data reveals Southwest’s and Upper Midwest’s leading rates of culling. With significant long-term industry effects, the USDA’s thorough data collecting provides a clear picture of these developments and points to a more cautious and economical method by dairy producers.
Key Takeaways:
- The number of dairy cull cows marketed through U.S. slaughter plants in May 2024 was reported at 216,100, the lowest May total since 2016.
- There was a decline of 33,000 head compared to May 2023, with a monthly decrease of 22,100 from April 2024.
- USDA Ag Marketing Service data indicated a consistent year-over-year decrease in dairy cows marketed for beef for 37 consecutive weeks, totaling a reduction of about 280,000 compared to the previous year.
- The U.S. dairy herd was estimated at 9.35 million cows in May 2024, a slight increase from April, but still resulting in a 2.3% culling rate for the month.
- The year-to-date dairy cull cow slaughter from January to May 2024 stood at approximately 1,201,800 head, marking the lowest four-month total since 2014.
Summary:
The US wastes 30-40% of its food supply, causing significant financial and ecological impacts. Food waste emits harmful greenhouse gases like methane when decomposed in landfills. The Washington Dairy Products Commission has praised dairy cows for their role in reducing food waste. Dairy cows have a four-chambered stomach that breaks down and extracts nutrients from fibrous plant material and indigestible byproducts. They can recycle waste products like distillers’ grain, bakery waste, and cotton seeds into valuable nutrition, supporting their dietary needs and promoting environmental sustainability. The Krainick family repurposes five to six million pounds of food waste into their cows’ diets.
Learn more:
- 2024’s Early Dairy Cull Cow Market Downtrend: A Deep Dive Analysis
- Main Reasons Behind the Significant Decrease in Cow Culls: The Impact of Beef-on-Dairy Trends and Low Replacements
- Navigating the Waves: Dairy Producers Defy Challenges to Keep Barns Full Amid Soaring Milk Prices and Adverse Conditions
