U.S. cheese production hit a record 14.25B lbs in 2024, driven by Italian styles like Mozzarella (+3.6%) while Cheddar fell to a 4-year low (-6.1%). Farmers adapted to milk shortages by prioritizing exports and high-component milk, reshaping dairy strategies amid EU tariff risks.
Summary:
In 2024, the U.S. achieved a record cheese production of 14.25 billion pounds, mainly due to increased demand for Italian cheeses like Mozzarella. While Cheddar production dropped to its lowest level since 2020, farmers focused on exporting and improving milk quality to boost profits. Gouda also saw significant growth due to demand in Asia, though future EU tariffs could pose challenges. As the industry adapts to changing markets and milk supplies, strategies like hedging and regional planning will be essential to sustain growth amid shifting domestic and international pressures.
Key Takeaways:
- Record Output: U.S. cheesemakers produced 14.25B pounds (+41.76M YoY), driven by Italian styles like Mozzarella (+3.6%) and Gouda (+30.2%) despite milk shortages.
- Italian Cheese Surge: Italian cheeses surpassed 6B pounds (+2.4% YoY), with exports offsetting domestic foodservice declines.
- Cheddar Decline: Cheddar fell to 3.85B pounds (-6.1%), lowest since 2020, due to scarce milk, high restaurant prices, and shifts to Gouda.
- Price Volatility: Monthly Cheddar production drops caused spring/fall price spikes (peaking at $1.92/lb vs 5-year avg $1.68).
- Export Risks: Gouda/Mozzarella farmers face EU tariff threats, shipping cost hikes (+22% YoY), and currency risks (Mexican peso volatility cut profits 4%).
U.S. cheese production hit a historic 14.25 billion pounds in 2024 (+41.76M YoY), powered by Italian-style cheeseslike Mozzarella while Cheddar output fell to a 4-year low. Farmers must now compete on milk components, not just volume.
Table 1: 2024 U.S. Cheese Production Trends
| Cheese Type | Production (B lbs) | YoY Change | Key Driver | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Italian | 6.00 | +2.4% | Mozzarella exports (+3.6%) | USDA Jan-Nov 2024 |
| Cheddar | 3.85 | -6.1% | Domestic demand slump | USDA Dec 2024 |
| Gouda | 0.080 | +30.2% | Asian market expansion | EU Commission Q4 2024 |
Italian Cheese Drives Growth
Italian cheese crossed 6 billion pounds (+2.4% YoY) for the first time, led by:
- Mozzarella exports: 38% shipped to Mexico/Asia (USDA Jan- Nov 2024)
- Component premiums: up to $0.20/cwt bonuses for high-fat milk (Dairy Farmers of America Q3 2024)
- Jersey herds: 18% YoY growth for butterfat optimization
Why it matters: Jersey cows now yield $2.18/cwt premiums over Holsteins (USDA 2024), reshaping herd genetics.
Table 2: Cheddar Price Volatility (2024)
| Period | Avg Price ($/lb) | Peak Price ($/lb) | 5-Year Avg ($/lb) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring | 1.85 | 1.92 | 1.68 |
| Fall | 1.78 | 1.89 | 1.68 |
| Source: CME Group (2/9/2025), USDA AMS | |||
Cheddar’s Decline Reshapes Markets
American cheese output fell 3.9%, with Cheddar plunging to 3.85B pounds (-6.1%)—lowest since 2020. Farmers faced:
- Processed cheese slump: Demand for slices fell 9% (CME Group 2/9/2025)
- Milk cuts: 23% fewer Cheddar plant contracts
| Cheddar Farmers | Italian/Gouda Suppliers | |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Risk | Domestic demand shifts | EU trade rule changes |
| Opportunity | New processing plants | Asian export growth |
Table 3: U.S. Cheese Export Markets (2024)
| Region | % of Exports | Key Product | Growth vs 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico | 38% | Mozzarella | +17% |
| Asia | 29% | Gouda | +25.6% |
| EU | 16% | Specialty | -4% (Tariff risk) |
| Source: USDA FAS (2024), Pecorino Romano Consortium | |||
Gouda’s 30% Surge Faces EU Hurdles
Gouda production jumped to 80.27M pounds (+30.2%), driven by Asian markets, but EU tariffs threaten $0.15/lbprofits (EU Commission Q4 2024). Farmers near Wisconsin (+14%) and Idaho (+9%) plants gained:
- Stable contracts: 64% include currency hedging
- Regional buyers: new processors in export zones
Strategic Shifts for 2025
- Test milk monthly: butterfat/protein checks for premiums (USDA §120.5)
- Hedge prices: Lock in 40-60% via CME futures
- Regional focus
Learn more:
- How Cheese Exports and China’s Demand are Powering the US Dairy Economy in 2024
- U.S. Dairy Exports Surge in April: Record Cheese Shipments and Whey Boost
- Flying Through Uncertainty: Domestic Cheese Demand Spurs Record Highs in Class III Futures Amid Global Market Shifts
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