Discover why replacement cow prices have hit a 10-year peak, matching the $2,120 per head record of 2014. Dive into the factors driving this surge.
As you prepare for the continuously changing dynamics of the dairy market, it is worthwhile to note that tightening cow and heifers’ numbers have pushed average prices for U.S. replacement dairy cows to a 10-year high this past April. This is consistent with the latest USDA quarterly estimates. Additionally, in a welcome turn of events, the 2023 annual average cull cow prices soared to their highest point since 2015.
U.S. replacement dairy cow prices averaged at $2,120 per head in April 2024. This marks a significant increase from the numbers in January 2024, where prices were up by $230 (12%) and an even steeper rise from April 2023, showing an increase of $400 (23%). This brings the quarterly average prices in April to match the same peak of $2,120 per head last seen in October 2014.
The USDA’s price estimates are based on quarterly surveys (conducting in January, April, July, and October) coursed through dairy farmers in 24 major dairy states. Additionally, an annual survey conducted every February also contributes to these numbers. All states are taken into account during these surveys. They reliably represent the prices paid or received for cows that have delivered at least one calf and are sold for replacement purposes—excluding cull cows. Do remember, these reports do not summarize auction market prices.
These quarterly average prices for replacement cows rose in 23 out of the 24 major dairy states. The largest increases were observed in Vermont, New York, Georgia, and Ohio, all witnessing an increase of $350 or more. The only state where average prices dipped by $100 was New Mexico.
Fast forward to a year later; April replacement cow prices were up $680 in Georgia and $560 in New York, and a somewhat similar increase ranging from $520-$540 per head was observed in Minnesota, Vermont, and Wisconsin. New Mexico remained the only unchanged entity from April 2023.
With a one-month lag in reporting data, the USDA’s ag prices report indicates that the U.S. average prices received for cull cows (beef and dairy, combined) in March 2024 averaged at $119 per hundredweight (cwt). This is up $10 from February and more than $23 per cwt higher than March 2023.
Dwindling cow numbers have had a notable impact not just on replacement prices but also dairy cow culling rates. The number of dairy cull cows marketed weekly through U.S. slaughter plants has trailed comparable weeks a year earlier since as far back as early August 2023, based on the latest USDA data.
In March 2024, the number of dairy cull cows marketed through U.S. slaughter plants was estimated at 244,600. Although this reflects a decrease of 8,100 from February, it is the highest monthly total since August. However, it was also 61,600 fewer than March 2023 and marked the lowest March total since 2009.
Summary: The average prices for U.S. replacement dairy cows have reached a 10-year high in April 2024, according to the latest USDA quarterly estimates. The 2023 annual average cull cow prices have also reached their highest point since 2015. The quarterly average prices rose in 23 out of 24 major dairy states, with the largest increases in Vermont, New York, Georgia, and Ohio. The largest increases were observed in Georgia and New York, while the average prices for cull cows in March 2024 were $119 per hundredweight, up $10 from February and more than $23 per cwt higher than March 2023. Dwindling cow numbers have also affected replacement prices and dairy cow culling rates, with the number of dairy cull cows marketed through U.S. slaughter plants trailing comparable weeks a year earlier since early August 2023.
