Discover how the rapid shift from El Niño to La Niña is driving extreme weather and planting delays this spring. How will this impact your region’s agriculture?
Extreme weather has been wreaking havoc across the U.S. this spring, leading to numerous tornado outbreaks since late April and significant planting delays. Dairy farmers, you can now point to a combination of weather phenomena, notably the swift transition from El Niño to La Niña, as a major reason behind these disruptions.
Understanding the Weather Transition
The shift from El Niño to La Niña has been in progress, and according to the National Weather Service (NWS) Climate Prediction Center (CPC), El Niño is expected to move into the neutral state of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) by next month. This rapid transition is contributing to the severe weather patterns observed recently.
NWS forecasters report:
- La Niña has a 49% chance of developing from June to August, increasing to 69% from July to September.
- A transition to ENSO-neutral is likely within the next month.
- Both an El Niño advisory and a La Niña watch remain in effect.
As this transition unfolds, it is partially responsible for the surge in severe weather throughout April and May. Just last week, tornado outbreaks continued to plague the U.S.
The Impact of Tornadoes and Rain
“We observed approximately 380 tornadoes in the US during April—the second-highest on record since 1950, trailing only behind the historic April 2011,” says Brad Rippey, USDA Meteorologist. In 2011, the U.S. saw more than 800 tornadoes.
This year, three key factors are driving the extremely active weather pattern:
- A significant temperature gradient caused by cold air masses descending from Canada meeting warm, humid air.
- The northeast track of Pacific energy enabling the moisture from the Gulf and Atlantic to interact.
- The rapid transition from El Niño to La Niña, which confuses the atmosphere as it shifts from one persistent pattern to its opposite.
The record-setting weather activity extends beyond tornadoes to the excessive rainfall experienced since late April. Over the weekend, parts of Texas faced flooding after receiving nine inches of rain within six to eight hours.
Impact on Planting
This relentless rain is also delaying planting across the United States. Recent USDA data showed that as of last Sunday, only 36% of the country’s corn crop had been planted, three points below the average. Key states like Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa are all lagging behind their five-year averages.
“A few weeks ago, conditions looked promising for spring planting, but the weather has since stalled progress,” Rippey adds.
Looking Ahead
Despite the current delays, Drew Lerner, Senior Agricultural Meteorologist at World Weather Inc., predicts a change in the weather pattern within a couple of weeks. “We might see less extreme rainfall while maintaining quick-moving weather systems,” says Lerner.
Rippey echoes this sentiment, suggesting that forecasted breaks in the rain could provide more opportunities for planting, and warmer temperatures expected mid-month should aid in drying out the soils quicker.
The La Niña Effect
However, the switch to La Niña, combined with predicted warmth, is concerning for drought-stricken areas. Only 15% of the U.S. is currently experiencing drought, but the Northwest and Southwest are facing severe conditions. “We have a stark contrast between areas with adequate moisture and those struggling with drought,” Rippey notes.
As La Niña brings drier and warmer conditions to areas like south-central Kansas, Colorado, New Mexico, and parts of Texas, the window for drought relief narrows. “Rain next week may not be sufficient, and as we move into late May and June, high pressure could limit further opportunities for rainfall,” Lerner warns.
The transition to La Niña raises concerns for crop yields, particularly in the Cotton Belt, affecting crops such as wheat, sorghum, and even irrigated corn. “Dryer-than-normal conditions are expected for the High Plains through the heart of summer,” adds Rippey, emphasizing the potential impact of this weather shift.
- Crops in the Cotton Belt, including wheat, sorghum, and irrigated corn, are at risk due to the transition to La Niña.
- The High Plains are expected to experience drier-than-normal conditions through the summer.
- The shift in weather patterns could have significant impacts on crop yields.
