44% Tariff Shock: China’s Retaliation Threatens $485M in U.S. Dairy Exports

Trade war escalates as 44% tariffs threaten $485M in U.S. dairy exports. China retaliates, H5N1 spreads – survival strategies for farmers revealed.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The U.S. dairy sector faces a perfect storm as President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs trigger China’s retaliatory 44% duties, putting $485M in exports at immediate risk. February data reveals collapsing powder sales (-53% in SE Asia) but record cheese exports (+7.3%), while butter shipments surge 134%. Simultaneously, H5N1 outbreaks cost farms up to $1.2M, and EU geographical indications threaten $59B in U.S. cheese revenue. Producers must act now: lock in feed prices, shift milk classes, and leverage USDA support programs to survive this unprecedented crisis.

KEY TAKEAWAYS:

• China’s 44% tariff wall could erase 83% of $584M annual U.S. dairy exports within months
• Butter exports (+134%) and cheese (+7.3%) shine while powder collapses (-53% in SE Asia)
• H5N1 costs hit $372K testing/$1.2M culling for large herds – apply for USDA aid NOW
• EU’s cheese name grab threatens $59B over 10 years – fight for “parmesan” labeling rights
• 5 survival moves: Hedge feed, shift to Class IV, demand USMCA enforcement, chase new markets, use H5N1 funds

The dairy world is caught in the crossfire of an escalating global trade war following President Trump’s sweeping “Liberation Day” tariffs announced this week. These aggressive new measures, affecting more than 180 countries and territories, have triggered immediate retaliation from China and sent financial markets tumbling. For dairy farmers worldwide, this dramatic shift in trade policy creates both immediate challenges and potential opportunities depending on your location and export exposure.

TRADE WAR BOMBSHELL: HOW “LIBERATION DAY” RESHAPES GLOBAL DAIRY MARKETS

The long-anticipated tariffs hit harder than most analysts expected, with a baseline 10% levy on all imports starting April 5, followed by steeper rates kicking in from April 9. While Canada and Mexico escaped unscathed from this latest round, key dairy importers without significant new barriers.

China wasted no time firing back, announcing a matching 34% tariff on all U.S. products starting April 10. This comes on top of existing 10% tariffs from previous trade disputes, creating a crushing 44% total barrier for U.S. dairy exports to America’s third-largest dairy market worth $584 million in 2024. Industry analysts project this could erase 83% of this trade within months – putting $485 million at immediate risk.

The European Union, a significant cheese exporter to the U.S., faces a challenging position. Alexander Anton of the European Dairy Association emphasized: “Our sector is already under enormous pressure from China’s anti-subsidy investigation and ongoing global market challenges. Now, U.S. tariffs risk compounding that crisis.”

FEBRUARY EXPORT DATA REVEALS TROUBLING SIGNS BEFORE THE TARIFF WAR ERUPTED

The latest export data from February showed U.S. dairy exports slipping 4.3% year-over-year (adjusted for leap day), with sharp divergences between products hinting at challenges that predated the current tariff crisis.

Nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder (NFDM/SMP) exports plummeted to their lowest February volume since 2016, with Southeast Asian sales collapsing dramatically. This drop pushed U.S. NFDM/SMP exports to troubling lows – a concerning sign for America’s leading dairy export product.

The bright spot? Cheese exports maintained their strong growth trajectory, improving 7.3% year-over-year and setting an all-time February record at 99 million pounds. Growth across diverse markets compensated for a 5.9% drop in cheese exports to Mexico.

Butter exports delivered the most dramatic performance, soaring 134.2% as U.S. butterfat prices sat at a significant discount compared to European and Oceanian competitors. This price advantage could prove pivotal as trade barriers reshape global dairy flows. Anhydrous milkfat shipments also skyrocketed to 7.5 million pounds, nearly ten times the volume shipped in February 2024.

WHY GLOBAL DAIRY PRODUCERS MUST PREPARE FOR MARKET UPHEAVAL

The tariff fallout varies dramatically depending on where your farm sits globally. The outlook appears grim for European producers, particularly Irish dairy farmers exporting Kerrygold butter to the U.S…

The Irish Farmers Association warns: “Kerrygold is now the second best-selling butter brand in the U.S., where we sent almost €500m of product in 2024. The fact that New Zealand only has a 10% tariff for dairy products while the EU will have 20% tariffs will leave us at a competitive disadvantage.”

New Zealand, meanwhile, finds itself in a relatively stronger position despite the turmoil. Agriculture Minister Todd McClay offered an optimistic assessment: “While these tariffs create additional costs that will largely be passed on to consumers, New Zealand is in a stronger position than many other countries, some facing higher tariff barriers.”

Australian dairy exports, primarily cheese and curd, reached record highs last year, with volume lifting 17.5% year-on-year. The country faces only the baseline 10% tariff, potentially giving it a competitive edge against European rivals hit with the 20% rate.

THE HIDDEN COST CRISIS: HOW EQUIPMENT TARIFFS ADD $45.65 PER COW

While Canada escaped new tariffs in this round, existing 25% steel and aluminum duties directly hit equipment costs for dairy operations on both sides of the border. A New York dairy co-op’s analysis shows these tariffs added $21,000 to a 460-cow barn renovation – $45.65 per cow in hidden costs before milk even hits the tank.

AJ Wormuth, who manages 3,600 dairy cows at Half Full Dairy in upstate New York, reports accelerating a barn renovation after being informed that metal stall costs would increase by $21,000 due to these steel tariffs. “We’re facing a double challenge — lower prices coupled with increasing costs,” Wormuth explains.

The concerns are equally pressing for smaller operations like Annie Watson’s 70-cow organic dairy in Maine. She calculates that tariffs could increase her grain expenses from Canada by $1,200 monthly. “It would be more manageable if many of our organic dairy farmers weren’t already financially struggling due to market conditions,” notes Watson.

CME MARKET REACTION: WHICH DAIRY COMMODITIES FACE THE BIGGEST PRESSURE?

This week’s CME spot market movements offered a glimpse into immediate market reactions to the tariff drama, with most dairy commodities facing downward pressure:

Butter took the biggest hit, falling 5.5¢ to settle at $2.295/lb with a heavy trading volume of 28 loads. With U.S. butter production jumping 6.3% year-over-year in February amid rising milk fat tests (now at 4.43%, up 0.13% from last year), the market faces significant oversupply challenges that exports might have helped alleviate before tariff barriers emerged.

Nonfat dry milk slipped a modest half-cent to $1.1575/lb, but concerning fundamentals lurk beneath this relatively stable price. Manufacturers’ NDM inventories have ballooned to 329.14 million pounds, a shocking 57% increase from last year, while domestic and international demand remains sluggish.

Dry whey continued downward, losing a penny to settle at 49¢ per pound. The ongoing preference for higher-protein products (whey protein isolate production jumped 14.2% while dry whey production fell 10.3%) hasn’t provided price support, and the escalating China trade conflict threatens to undermine export prospects further.

The cheese markets showed surprising resilience amid the turmoil. Cheddar blocks inched up half a cent to $1.64/lb on heavy volume (47 loads traded, including 24 on Tuesday alone), while barrels gained 2.5¢ to reach $1.66/lb, inverting the typical block-barrel spread. This strength comes despite February cheese production climbing 1.3% year-over-year to 1.115 billion pounds.

H5N1 CRISIS: THE PERFECT STORM THREATENING DAIRY FARM SURVIVAL

As if trade wars weren’t enough, the dairy industry simultaneously battles an unprecedented H5N1 avian influenza outbreak in cattle. Since the first detection on March 24, 2024, the virus has spread to at least 192 dairy herds across 13 states. This biosecurity crisis adds another layer of complexity, with mandatory testing now required for interstate cattle movement.

The USDA has committed $200 million to combat the spread, offering up to $10,000 per farm for veterinary costs and testing. With the American Association of Bovine Practitioners estimating economic impacts of $100-$200 per cow, this represents yet another financial pressure point for dairy operations already struggling with trade disruptions.

THE $59 BILLION THREAT: WHY EU CHEESE NAME RESTRICTIONS COULD DEVASTATE U.S. PRODUCERS

Beyond immediate tariff concerns lurks another trade dispute with potentially devastating consequences. The EU’s aggressive stance on geographical indications for cheese names threatens to cost U.S. dairy producers $59 billion over the next decade, according to a new report by Informa Economics IEG.

U.S. cheesemakers face restrictions on using terms like “parmesan,” “feta,” and “gorgonzola” – names many American producers consider generic. Wisconsin cheesemaker Sarah Pratt bluntly says, “They want to steal ‘parmesan’ from our vocabulary like they stole our grandfathers’ recipes.”

5 SURVIVAL STRATEGIES EVERY DAIRY PRODUCER NEEDS NOW

The long shadow of a trade war has impacted dairy futures significantly, with Class III contracts dipping below $18/cwt through August. This comes at a particularly challenging time for farm profitability – February’s milk margin over feed cost fell to $13.12/cwt, down 73¢ from January.

The silver lining? Feed costs appear to be headed lower. May soybean futures plunged to $9.77/bu following China’s retaliatory tariff announcement, while May corn settled at $4.60/bu. This potential operating cost relief may help offset some milk price pressure.

For forward-thinking dairy producers, several strategic priorities emerge:

1. Lock in feed prices NOW using CME’s discounted DEC25 corn futures at $4.18/bu to protect against future volatility.
2. Demand USDA enforce USMCA Chapter 32 to break Canada’s tariff-rate quota manipulation that blocks U.S. access to promised markets.
3. Shift 15% of milk to Class IV before June, hedging windows close to diversify revenue streams.
4. Apply for H5N1 support programs, including the $10,000 per farm veterinary reimbursement and $2,000 monthly PPE allowance from USDA.
5. Explore alternative export markets in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, where U.S. butter exports grew 776% year-over-year in recent data.

The coming months will reveal whether this trade war becomes a prolonged reality or another chapter in ongoing negotiations. What’s certain is that global dairy markets face a significant adjustment period as trade flows recalibrate to this new reality – creating both challenges and opportunities for adaptable dairy businesses worldwide.

Leonard Poen of the University of Wisconsin-Madison extension warns that retaliatory tariffs could decrease the income of a medium-sized farm in Wisconsin with about 250 cattle by up to $56,000 per year. “I don’t think any part of the supply chain is going to be insulated from this,” he cautions.

As Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins explores methods to “potentially alleviate any economic disasters that might befall some of our farmers,” the industry must prepare for a prolonged period of volatility. Those who implement strategic responses and remain adaptable to changing conditions will be best positioned to weather this storm and potentially emerge stronger when trade relationships stabilize.

Learn more:

• GLOBAL DAIRY MARKETS ROCKED: US-China-Canada Tariff War Sends Shockwaves Worldwide
  Explore the ripple effects of retaliatory tariffs from Canada and China on U.S. dairy exports, impacting milk prices and reshaping global trade dynamics.
• Trump’s Liberation Day Tariffs: A $8.2B Gamble for Dairy Farmers
  Dive deeper into how Trump’s tariffs jeopardize $8.2 billion in dairy exports, intersecting with biosecurity threats and collapsing milk futures.
• $98 Million USDA Support for Dairy Farms Battling Avian Influenza: How to Access Funds and Resources
  Learn how dairy farmers can access USDA aid to combat H5N1 outbreaks, including veterinary reimbursements and biosecurity measures.

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