The first few months of 2024 have proven to be a period of notable change within the dairy industry, mostly due to the combination of a smaller milking herd, tight replacement heifer supplies, and modest improvements in milk income margins. According to the latest USDA monthly data released on April 25th, a clear trend towards a reduction in dairy cull cow marketing is evident.
Take note of the specifics: In March 2024, US slaughter plants marketed an estimated 244,600 dairy cull cows. Yes, this figure is down by 8,100 from February, making it the highest monthly total since August. However, it was also an astounding 61,600 cows fewer than March 2023, marking the lowest March total since 2009.
Things do not stop there. As of April 13th, the USDA’s AG Marketing Service stated that the number of dairy cowsmarketed for beef has continuously trailed year-ago levels for a whopping 32 consecutive weeks, taking us back to September 9, 2023, and marking a reduction of 215,600 compared to the same period the previous year.
“It seems to be a clear trend. March 2023 had 27 non-holiday weekdays and Saturdays in comparison to March 2024, which had 26 days, and daily slaughter reduced by an average of 800 head this year. Our estimated number of dairy cows in the U.S in March 2024 is 9.335 million, down 7,000 compared to our revised February estimate.”
Based on these numbers, the March dairy cow culling rate is measured at approximately 2.6% of the herd.
There’s more. A closer look at the cull cow slaughter numbers for the first quarter paints a narrative of continued decline. Dairy cull cow slaughter for the first three months of 2024 is now at an estimated 747,500 head, which is down by 123,000 from the same period last year and making the number the lowest three-month total start to the year since 2010.
The heaviest dairy cow culling in March occurred in the Southwest (Arizona, California, Hawaii, and Nevada), with a recorded 58,800 head. This occurrence was closely followed by the Upper Midwest (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, and Wisconsin) at 56,300 head.
- Other Regional Monthly Totals:
- Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas – 33,800 head
- Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Virginia – 32,300 head
- Alaska, Idaho, Oregon, and Washington – 32,100 head
All the primary data cited is sourced from the USDA’s Livestock Slaughter Report, capturing reports from about 900 federally inspected plants and close to 1,900 state-inspected or custom-exempt slaughter plants.
Continue reading for an in-depth analysis and explanations on what these shifting trends mean for the dairy cull cow market in the coming months.
