Recently as part of our weekend humor series we published the picture seen at the right. In publishing the image we knew we would get a reaction, but we were surprised at the way breeders interpreted it. While we intended to show how old school breeders are dissing on genomics, but instead it seemed to become a rallying cry for old school dairy breeders.
The conversation that has stemmed from it has been very interesting. As you can see, there are still many breeders who don’t totally understand the merits of using top genomic young sires. In an effort to help educate, or maybe just bang my head against the wall, we have prepared the following details. .
Proven vs. Young Sire – Who wins in the long run?
Let’s take a comparison of the top 10 Genomics Young Sires vs. the Top 10 Proven sires from the April 2012 proof run. Of course we all know that the genomic young sires will have higher breeding values, but we need to account for the expected drop. Our analysis of the NAAB genomic sires’ proofs vs. their later daughter proven proofs currently shows a 13.8% drop on TPI. (Note: we are actually tracking the drop on LPI sires, TPI sires and PLI sires, and so far we see them dropping 9.7%, 13.8%, and 13.5% respectively.)
The following table shows where the current top genomic sires would rank compared to the proven sires options available currently.
[csv2table source=”https://www.thebullvine.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/PROVENVSGENOMIC.csv” icons=”true”]
What Does This Mean?
What you notice is that three of the top current genomic young sires (Numero Uno, Supersire, and McCutchen) would all rank among the top 10 proven sires. In fact, 25 of the top 50 sires would be genomic young sires. This is not to say that they will all drop the 13.8% that the average sire has already. They could drop more or less. However, what it does show is that these young genomic sires have a much higher predictability than in the past. You can now use a group of these young sires with much greater confidence than in the past.
The Bullvine Bottom Line
Are all the top genomic sires, going to end up on the top of the proven sires list, when they have daughter progeny? No, of course not. But what we have been finding is that only about 10% of them drop off the top list, and many of them hold pretty strong. We have even found some genomic sires that actually go up with daughter information. What it does mean? Use genomic sires that are within 10% of the top sires. If they have GTPI values of 2,300 or greater, you will end up ahead of where you would have been, if you had not used any genomic sires at all. Just remember this is an average. The movement will not be exactly the same for all sires, hence the need to spread out your young sire usage.
For all those old school breeders, who are pissing on genomics, well what can I say? I don’t expect to change your mind. However, it is foolish to piss on something that you don’t understand. Might I recommend that you read our free guide – The Dairy Breeders “No BS” Guide to Genomics.
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My big issue with genomics is it seems to be all about stacking numbers trying to breed some 5000GLPI bull that is hot for a month or two until he gets knocked off. But where are the bulls that are going to come out with a +18 conformation proof that the average breeder with this 35cow tie stall barn actually want to use?? Am I alone on this one? The majority of the genomics bulls are lucky if they make double digits for conformation and they could drop drastically come proof day given the fact that genomics is much less accurate at predicting type numbers…