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Archive for Politics

MAHA: A Double-Edged Sword for the Dairy Industry

Saturday, March 29th, 2025

MAHA’s health revolution could crown traditional dairy kings or crush processors. Discover winning strategies for the $1.7T policy shift reshaping your milk market.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The MAHA initiative’s crackdown on ultra-processed foods presents dairy producers with unprecedented opportunities and risks. Traditional whole-food dairy products (fluid milk, artisanal cheeses, butter) stand to gain market share as consumers shift from additive-laden options. In contrast, processed dairy items in cereals and frozen meals face existential threats. Plant-based alternatives’ reliance on synthetic ingredients makes them vulnerable, creating a surprising competitive edge for clean-label dairy. Successful operators are already reformulating products, embracing regenerative practices, and aligning with upcoming USDA guidelines. With 29 states advancing food additive bans, proactive adaptation to cleaner production methods and strategic policy monitoring will separate industry winners from casualties.

KEY TAKEAWAYS:

$3.50 Premium Power: Consumers pay $2.54-$3.53 more for clean-label yogurts – reformulate now
Plant-Based Trap: 78% of alt-dairy products qualify as ultra-processed under MAHA guidelines
Regulatory Countdown: 75+ state bills target additives – California bans four chemicals starting 2027
Quiet Wins: Major brands successfully reformulate yogurts without taste changes or fanfare
Methane Bonus: Seaweed feed cuts dairy emissions by 52-95% while aligning with MAHA’s whole-food ethos

MAHA initiative, ultra-processed foods, clean-label dairy, dairy policy changes, plant-based dairy alternatives

The Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) initiative, spearheaded by Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr., represents significant global opportunities and potential challenges for dairy producers. With control over $1.7 trillion in federal spending—a quarter of the annual U.S. federal budget and nearly twice what the military spends—Kennedy’s influence on food policy could dramatically reshape dairy markets in ways that innovative producers should be preparing for now.

The Power and Scope of MAHA

The MAHA Commission, established by President Donald Trump, has significantly expanded Kennedy’s authority beyond just HHS to include other agencies, including the USDA. This cross-agency approach gives the initiative unprecedented muscle to implement sweeping changes to America’s food system by August 2025, when the Commission must publish its strategy on “appropriately restructuring the Federal Government’s” approach to health.

The commission’s primary mission is tackling the alarming rise in childhood diseases like diabetes and obesity. At the heart of this effort is a laser focus on reducing ultra-processed foods (UPFs) in the American diet—products containing lengthy lists of additives, preservatives, and non-nutritive ingredients that have become staples in modern food consumption.

One of Kennedy’s most immediate avenues for addressing UPFs will be influencing the upcoming revisions to the Dietary Guidelines for Americans, set for release later in 2025. These guidelines don’t just influence individual consumer choices—they dictate purchasing decisions for massive federal programs like the National School Lunch Program, which must comply with them.

The Bright Side: Potential Windfalls for Traditional Dairy

For traditional dairy farmers, MAHA could represent a significant market opportunity. In its purest form, milk is the quintessential whole food—nutritionally dense, minimally processed, and perfectly aligned with MAHA’s vision of healthier eating.

The push against UPFs could trigger a renaissance for traditional dairy products:

Fluid Milk Revival

Public health experts recommend that children “mostly drink water and plain milk” while limiting plant-based alternatives, flavored milk, and other sweetened beverages. As consumers potentially shift away from ultra-processed breakfast options like sugary cereals, the opportunity exists for marketing milk as a stand-alone breakfast beverage rather than merely a cereal complement.

Traditional Cheeses and Yogurts

Artisanal and traditionally produced cheeses and yogurts with simple, clean ingredient lists stand to gain significant market share as consumers seek less processed alternatives. Research shows consumers are willing to pay a premium of $2.54 to $3.53 for 32 oz of clean-label yogurt formulations. These products align perfectly with MAHA’s emphasis on whole foods with minimal additives.

Butter’s Continued Renaissance

Real butter, already experiencing growing popularity as consumers move away from artificial spreads, could see further demand increases under MAHA’s whole food philosophy.

The Dark Side: Challenges for Processed Dairy Products

Not all dairy categories will benefit equally from MAHA’s focus. Several dairy-heavy product categories could face headwinds:

Highly Processed Cheese Products

If shelf-stable cheese products with extensive ingredient lists are categorized as UPFs, they may face scrutiny and declining consumer acceptance. This trend may push manufacturers toward reformulations with cleaner labels.

Dairy in Breakfast Cereals

The potential impact on breakfast cereals is particularly concerning. With Americans consuming approximately 14 pounds of cereal annually, any decline in this category could significantly impact dairy demand. The milk consumed daily with cereal represents a substantial market segment that could be disrupted.

Frozen Meals and Snacks

In complex formulations, many frozen meals and snacks containing dairy ingredients (cheese, butter, cream) could face regulatory pressure or consumer rejection. These products often contain numerous additives that place them squarely in MAHA’s crosshairs.

Competitive Advantage Over Plant-Based Alternatives

One unexpected silver lining: MAHA could complicate the growth trajectory of plant-based dairy alternatives. While positioned as “natural” alternatives to dairy, many plant-based milk, cheese, and yogurt products contain extensive lists of additives, emulsifiers, and stabilizers—precisely the ingredients MAHA aims to reduce.

Scientific research shows that most plant-based dairy alternatives are classified as ultra-processed foods (UPFs) according to the NOVA food classification system due to their ingredient composition, despite their marketing as healthier alternatives. This creates a competitive advantage for traditional dairy products with more straightforward ingredient profiles.

Risk Management Strategies for Dairy Businesses

Forward-thinking dairy businesses should consider several strategic approaches to navigate the MAHA era:

Reformulation and Clean Label Innovation

Dairy processors should accelerate clean-label initiatives for processed products, removing artificial additives and simplifying ingredient lists. According to research by Ingredion, 69% of US consumers want to see “made with recognizable ingredients” claims on yogurt, dairy alternative yogurts, ice cream, and processed cheese packaging. In comparison, 68% want “no artificial ingredients/no preservatives” claims.

A case study from Ingredion demonstrates how a global dairy manufacturer successfully reformulated a popular yogurt line to clean label standards without compromising texture, appearance, or taste—and with no discernible difference to consumers. This “quiet, clean label transformation” shows it’s possible to maintain product quality while meeting clean label demands.

Marketing Emphasis on “Whole Food” Dairy

Marketing campaigns highlighting dairy’s status as a minimally processed, nutritionally complete food could resonate strongly with consumers influenced by MAHA messaging. The simplicity of traditional dairy production methods becomes a valuable selling point.

Diversification of Product Offerings

Dairy businesses heavily invested in UPF categories should diversify toward less processed offerings. The MAHA Commission’s agenda development timeline (through August) gives companies a narrow window to begin this transition.

Strategic Monitoring of Policy Development

With the MAHA Commission set to deliver its strategy by mid-August 2025, dairy companies must stay vigilant about evolving regulations. Even if the federal MAHA agenda faces obstacles, state-level activity remains robust, with 29 states already introducing more than 75 bills to regulate food additives as of early 2025.

Key policy arenas to monitor include:

Dietary Guidelines Revisions

Changes to these guidelines will directly impact institutional dairy purchases through the National School Lunch Program, potentially favoring less processed dairy options.

Food Additive Bans

California has already passed legislation banning specific food additives, including Red Dye 3, brominated vegetable oil, potassium bromate, and propylparaben, from all food sales in the state starting January 1, 2027. Another bill bans six synthetic food dyes from foods in California public schools beginning in 2028. The FDA is also feeling pressure to act, with Deputy Commissioner Jim Jones hinting in December 2024 that a ban on Red Dye 3 would be announced: “in the next few weeks.”

State-Level Food Additive Regulations

The patchwork of state regulations creates compliance complexity and potential opportunities for dairy products with clean labels. New York and Pennsylvania have introduced similar bills to ban questionable ingredients, which will likely be revived in 2025.

The Regenerative Agriculture Advantage

Dairy producers embracing regenerative agriculture may find themselves well-positioned in the MAHA landscape. Companies like Straus Family Creamery in Northern California are pioneering sustainable dairy farming methods as part of broader efforts to become carbon neutral.

Once Upon a Farm, which recently entered the dairy category with A2/A2 Whole Milk Shakes and Smoothies, has partnered with Alexandre Family Farm, the first Certified Regenerative dairy farm in the US. The farm received this status in 2021 for its carbon sequestering practices via rotational grazing.

John Foraker, co-founder, and CEO of Once Upon a Farm, explains that regenerative farming practices align with their nutritional standards and environmental stewardship goals: “We want to work with the best possible partners who are very much aligned with us in terms of the positive impact that we have to make not just on nutrition, but also on the planet. Organic dairy does dairy way better than conventional”.

Case Studies: Dairy Companies Leading the Clean Label Transition

Straus Family Creamery: Pioneering Sustainable Dairy

Straus Family Creamery in Northern California demonstrates how traditional dairy can align perfectly with modern health and sustainability concerns. The company is helping pioneer more sustainable ways to manage dairy cows as part of its broader effort to become carbon neutral by 2030.

As a USDA-approved pilot program participant, Straus has shown that adding a quarter pound of red seaweed to a cow’s 45-pound diet can reduce enteric methane from belches by an average of 52% and up to 95%. This innovative approach allows traditional dairy to address health and environmental concerns simultaneously.

Once Upon a Farm: Regenerative Dairy Done Right

Once Upon a Farm’s January 2025 entry into the dairy category showcases how companies can successfully position dairy products to appeal to health-conscious consumers. Their A2/A2 Whole Milk Shakes and Smoothies, sourced from Alexandre Family Farms’ grass-fed cows, focus on taste (with no added sugar), texture, and farm standards for organic, regenerative dairy.

The company carefully balances its marketing claims, featuring USDA Organic, Non-GMO Project Verified, and Clean Label Project certifications on its products. John Foraker explains, “We are not overstating regenerative, organic and its impact on our business because it is such a small part of what we are doing – but it is a start, and it is on dairy.”

Global Dairy Manufacturer: The Quiet Clean Label Transformation

A case study from Ingredion demonstrates how even large-scale dairy processors can successfully transition to clean-label formulations without disrupting consumer expectations. As part of a global initiative to reformulate its dairy products, a well-known yogurt brand worked with Ingredion to develop a clean label formulation that maintained the same texture and taste while using consumer-friendly ingredients.

The key to success was finding the right functional native starch (NOVATION® 3300) to withstand the high temperatures of yogurt processing while delivering great texture, appearance, and taste. The reformulation was implemented as a “quiet, clean label transformation” without highlighting the changes. Yet, it successfully extended the company’s clean label initiative into challenging product lines with no discernible difference to consumers.

This approach demonstrates that dairy companies can transition to cleaner labels without compromising on product quality or manufacturing efficiency—a crucial consideration for businesses navigating the MAHA landscape.

Action Plan for Dairy Producers

Immediate Steps (Next 90 Days)

Conduct an audit of your product portfolio to identify items most vulnerable to UPF classification.
Begin R&D on clean label reformulations for your most at-risk products
Develop marketing materials highlighting the whole-food credentials of your minimally processed dairy offerings

Medium-Term Strategy (6-12 Months)

Invest in consumer education about the nutritional benefits of traditional dairy compared to highly processed alternatives.
Explore partnerships with regenerative agriculture practitioners to strengthen your sustainability story.
Begin transitioning high-risk product lines to cleaner formulations before regulatory pressure intensifies.

Long-Term Vision (1-3 Years)

Position your brand as a leader in clean, minimally processed dairy that aligns with MAHA principles.
Develop new product lines specifically designed to meet the emerging clean-label standards.
Build resilience against regulatory changes by diversifying your portfolio toward whole-food dairy offerings.

The dairy industry stands at a crossroads. By embracing the principles of clean labels, minimal processing, and transparent ingredient lists, forward-thinking dairy businesses can turn the MAHA movement from a potential threat into a significant competitive advantage.

Conclusion: Navigating Dairy’s MAHA Future

The emerging MAHA movement represents a consequential shift in America’s food policy landscape that will create winners and losers within the dairy industry. Traditional, minimally processed dairy products stand to gain significant market share, while heavily processed dairy formulations face potential regulatory and consumer challenges.

The industry’s ability to adapt to these changes—reformulating products, emphasizing dairy’s whole food credentials, and strategically navigating the evolving regulatory landscape—will determine which businesses thrive in the MAHA era.

The writing is on the wall for dairy farmers and processors: the future belongs to cleaner, simpler, more traditional dairy products. Those who embrace this reality sooner rather than later will find themselves well-positioned to capture market share in an increasingly health-conscious America.

Learn more:

Why Donald Trump Hates Canada’s Dairy Supply System
Explores the trade tensions underpinning U.S.-Canada dairy relations, critical for understanding MAHA’s geopolitical context.
Innovative Cheese, Butter, and Yogurt Drive Dairy Market Growth
Details how clean-label dairy innovation aligns with MAHA’s anti-UPF agenda, offering actionable strategies for product reformulation.
Dairy Farming Showdown: Canada vs USA
Compares regulatory frameworks that shape dairy competitiveness—essential context for navigating MAHA-driven policy shifts.

Join the Revolution!

Join over 30,000 successful dairy professionals who rely on Bullvine Daily for their competitive edge. Delivered directly to your inbox each week, our exclusive industry insights help you make smarter decisions while saving precious hours every week. Never miss critical updates on milk production trends, breakthrough technologies, and profit-boosting strategies that top producers are already implementing. Subscribe now to transform your dairy operation’s efficiency and profitability—your future success is just one click away.

Categories : Politics

Tags : clean-label dairy, dairy policy changes, MAHA initiative, ultra-processed foods

Trump’s Trade War: Is Pennsylvania’s Dairy Goldmine Becoming a Political Sacrifice Zone?

Wednesday, March 26th, 2025

PA dairy farms face extinction as Trump’s trade war intensifies. Will Washington wake up before rural America’s backbone snaps?

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Pennsylvania’s dairy industry, a $14.7 billion economic powerhouse, stands in crisis as retaliatory tariffs threaten $364 million in annual exports. Trump’s aggressive trade tactics, aimed at securing fair deals, have inadvertently made rural America a prime target for foreign retaliation. With Mexico and Canada imposing steep tariffs on dairy products, Pennsylvania farmers face plummeting prices and shrinking markets. Industry leaders demand immediate action, calling for dairy-specific trade protections and rapid enforcement of existing agreements. As the 2024 election looms, the administration’s response could determine the fate of thousands of multi-generational farms and the future of America’s heartland.

KEY TAKEAWAYS:

Pennsylvania’s 5,000 dairy farms produce 1.2 billion gallons of milk annually, supporting 52,000 jobs in key Trump-supporting counties.
Retaliatory tariffs from Mexico (25% on cheese) and Canada (up to 270% on dairy) threaten to crash domestic milk prices below production costs.
The U.S. enjoys trade surpluses with Mexico ($819M) and Canada ($631M) in dairy, which are now at risk.
Farmers demand dairy carve-outs in trade negotiations, rapid USMCA enforcement and investment in innovation to survive the trade war.
The administration’s ability to secure wins for dairy within 12 months could significantly impact rural support in the 2024 election.

Let’s cut the manure: Pennsylvania’s 5,000 dairy farms are staring down the barrel of a trade war nobody voted for. With retaliatory tariffs hammering 4 million in annual dairy exports, the question isn’t whether this hurts— how many multi-generation farms will fold before Washington blinks. Do you think Mexico’s 25% cheese tariffs hit Beijing? Wrong. They’re laser-targeting Trump Country’s heartland.

THE UNCOMFORTABLE MATH
Here’s what the suits in D.C. don’t want you to see:

1.2 billion gallons of milk flow from PA annually—enough to fill every bathtub in Pittsburgh 18 times over.
Fifty-two thousand jobs hinge on dairy, many in counties Trump carried by landslides.
$2.6 billion: The bloodbath U.S. dairy bled during the 2019 China tariffs. Rewind that tape, and who pays? You.

“This isn’t negotiation—it’s economic friendly fire,” growls Lancaster dairyman Rob Barley, whose family’s 800-cow operation faces extinction. “Mexico isn’t slapping tariffs on Wall Street. They’re gutting us because they know it hurts.”

THE RETALIATION PLAYBOOK: HOW FOREIGN NATIONS ARE OUTFLANKING AMERICA FIRST
Mexico’s tariff hit list reads like a PA dairy death warrant:

Cheese (Lancaster’s $287M lifeline)
Milk powder (Butler County’s cash cow)
Whey (Bedford’s rising star)

Meanwhile, Canada—already choking U.S. dairy with 270% butter tariffs—just piled on with 25% levies. “They’re exploiting rural loyalty,” admits a Dairy Farmers of America insider. “Sun Tzu meets The Apprentice, and we’re the fired contestant.”

THE ELEPHANT IN THE MILK PARLOR
Let’s get raw: The U.S. DOMINATES the dairy trade with Mexico and Canada. Pre-tariff 2023 numbers scream success:

$819M surplus with Mexico
$631M surplus with Canada

“We’re winning because we’re better—not because of political theater,” snaps Krysta Harden of the U.S. Dairy Export Council. “But Washington’s playing checkers while our competitors play chess.”

STAR ROCK FARMS: A CASE STUDY IN PATRIOTIC PAIN
Barley’s Conestoga operation epitomizes the conservative dilemma: Support the President’s vision but save the farm. While 70% of his milk stays domestic, his co-op’s exports buffer prices. “If Mexico slams doors, our surplus drowns the home market,” he warns. “We’ll be selling milk below cost by harvest.”

His neighbor Jim Harbach, a Trump 2024 sign still staked in his front yard, mutters: “They’ll bail out Detroit again. Who’s got our backs?”

FARMERS’ MANIFESTO: HOW TO WIN THIS WAR WITHOUT SURRENDERING

Carve Out Dairy: Demand tariff exemptions like steel got. No more “agriculture as expendable.”
Speed Over Stunts: Enforce USMCA now—Canada’s supply management system is still rigged.
Innovate or Evaporate: Redirect tariff cash to methane digesters and robotic milkers.

“We’re not asking for handouts,” Barley insists. “We’re demanding Washington fight smarter. Trump’s right about China cheating—but don’t let Mexico pick our pockets while we’re distracted.”

LESSONS FROM THE FRONT LINES
Remember 2019? When did Phase One deals eventually boost dairy exports by 18%? The blueprint works—if negotiators prioritize farmers over photo ops.

“Trust but verify,” Barley advises. “Back the President’s grit, but hold USDA’s feet to the fire. When Mexico threatens tariffs, we need counterpunches in hours, not hearings.”

YOUR MOVE, WASHINGTON

Flood the USTR’s inbox: Demand dairy seats in trade talks.
Hedge smart: Lock in futures prices before July’s expected glut.
Stockpile strategically: Convert surplus to butter/powder reserves.

“Conservative values built this industry,” Barley concludes. “But values don’t pay feed bills. We need wins—fast—or the next generation’s milking robots will be sold for scrap.”

THE BULLVINE BOTTOM LINE
This isn’t about left vs. right but survival vs. surrender. Pennsylvania’s dairy farmers can stomach a fight but not a suicide mission. Washington has 12 months to turn “America First” from slogan to salvation. The cows—and voters—are counting.

Do you have a spine? Share this article. Then call your Congressman. Time’s up for polite silence.

Will Your Farm Survive The North American Trade War? – A stark warning about the July 2026 USMCA review and its potential to obliterate dairy trade lifelines, with practical advice for farmers facing this “extinction-level event.”
TRUMP’S 250% DAIRY TARIFF THREAT: What’s Really at Stake for Your Farm – An urgent analysis of the April 2 tariff implementation deadline and the surprising truth about US-Canada dairy trade that contradicts political rhetoric.
How U.S. Farmers Could Benefit from Canada’s Trade Barriers – A strategic examination of how Trump’s reciprocal tariffs against Canada’s protectionist supply management system could reshape global dairy trade and potentially benefit American producers.

Join the Revolution!

Categories : Politics

Tags : farm economic impact, Mexico dairy tariffs, Pennsylvania dairy exports, Trump trade war

Dairy’s $2 Billion Tax Lifeline: Will Congress Save Co-ops Before It’s To Late?

Tuesday, March 25th, 2025

Dairy co-ops face a $2B tax cliff in 2025. Will Congress act before rural economies collapse?”

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Dairy cooperatives are racing against a 2025 deadline to save Section 199A, a tax provision funneling $2 billion annually to farmers. Without congressional action, co-ops like Northwest Dairy Association (NDA) risk losing deductions tied to their manufacturing income, squeezing patronage dividends and rural investments. Bipartisan bills (H.R. 4721, S. 480) aim to make the deduction permanent, but political gridlock threatens progress. Co-ops employ 200,000 workers and fund critical infrastructure, making their survival vital to rural economies. The expiration would deepen inequities between corporate tax cuts and temporary farmer relief, forcing operations to cut dividends and services. Farmers must urge lawmakers to prioritize parity before the 2025 expiration.

KEY TAKEAWAYS:

$2B Tax Lifeline at Risk: Section 199A’s expiration threatens to strip $2 billion in annual benefits from dairy cooperatives.
Legislative Battle: Bipartisan bills (H.R. 4721, S. 480) seek permanence, but political divides endanger passage.
Rural Economic Collapse: Co-ops employ 200,000 workers and fund infrastructure; their decline would devastate communities.
Corporate vs. Farm Equity: Corporations enjoy permanent tax cuts while farmers face temporary relief, exacerbating power imbalances.
Urgent Farmer Action: Producers must advocate for Section 199A extension to protect dividends, jobs, and rural stability.

The clock is ticking. With Section 199A set to expire in 2025, nearly $2 billion in annual tax benefits could vanish—leaving your operation exposed to crushing new tax burdens while corporations keep their permanent cuts.

Section 199A vs. Corporate Tax Cuts: A Rural Survival Guide

Farmer co-ops pass 95% of Section 199A benefits—over $2 billion annually—directly to members. This isn’t corporate welfare; it’s financial oxygen for operations battling inflation and volatile milk prices.

“Section 199A has driven job creation and rural investment,” the National Milk Producers Federation (NMPF) warns. “Without it, co-ops like Northwest Dairy Association (NDA)—which processes milk through its Darigold subsidiary—would lose deductions tied to their manufacturing income.”

Key Stat:

$2 Billion Annual Benefits
Cooperatives pass 95% of deductions to members (NMPF).

Legislative Timeline: What 2017, 2018, and 2025 Mean for Dairy Farmers

Year	Legislative Action	Impact
2017	Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA)	Introduced Section 199A with temporary benefits for co-ops
2018	Consolidated Appropriations Act	Restored prior-law section 199 treatment for co-ops; ensured parity between co-op/non-co-op sellers
2025	Section 199A Expiration	Potential loss of $2B annual deductions if not extended

“Section 199A was a critical adjustment to ensure cooperatives could compete with corporations. Its expiration would erase decades of progress.”
— NMPF Statement, 2023 Legislative Priorities

Tax Provision Comparison: Fixing the “Grain Glitch” Disparity

Provision	Original 199A (2017)	2018 Amendment
Deduction Type	20% of qualified business income (QBI)	Restored prior-law section 199 treatment for co-ops
Eligibility	Applied to all pass-through entities	Limited to specified agricultural/horticultural co-ops
Key Fix	Created disparity between co-op/non-co-op sellers	Added “grain glitch” reforms to level playing field

Why This Matters:

“The 2018 amendments were a hard-won victory for parity. Expiring 199A would leave co-ops at a renewed disadvantage.”
— CALT Analysis, 2018 Tax Reform Impact

Beyond the Balance Sheet: Community Survival at Stake

Co-ops employ nearly 200,000 workers and generate $13.3 billion in payroll. When they thrive, they:

Build Processing Facilities (e.g., Darigold plants) that create non-farm jobs.
Fund Infrastructure (roads, broadband) for entire communities.
Train the Next Generation through educational programs.

Case Study:

NDA’s Darigold Plants
Northwest Dairy Association’s processing facilities employ hundreds and stabilize milk prices for Pacific Northwest producers.

The Political Chess Match: Will Dairy Be Sacrificed?

Bipartisan bills (H.R. 4721, S. 480) aim to make Section 199A permanent. But with Congress divided, dairy risks being sidelined.

The Double Standard:

“Dairy farmers aren’t asking for handouts—they’re asking for parity. Corporate America got permanent cuts; we need the same.”
— NMPF Advocacy Campaign, 2023

What’s At Stake For Your Operation

Expiration means:

Reduced Dividends (e.g., $3,500/patron in some cases).
Higher Taxes (up to $20,000 more annually for some).
Weaker Co-op Services as margins tighten.

Farmer Reality:

“Our co-op’s dividends fund equipment upgrades and feed purchases. Without 199A, we’ll have to cut back—hurting both our farm and the local economy.”
— NMPF Member Testimony, 2023 Advocacy Campaign

The Bottom Line: Action Required

Contact Your Reps Today. Explain how Section 199A impacts your bottom line. The future of America’s dairy co-ops—and your operation—depends on making rural voices heard.

Learn more

Join the Revolution!

Categories : Politics

Tags : dairy cooperatives, rural economic impact, Section 199A, tax cliff 2025

MILK PRICE MASSACRE 2025: USDA’s $1 Forecast Cut Exposes Systemic Betrayal

Friday, March 21st, 2025

Expose how USDA’s 2025 milk price forecast betrays farmers with impossible math, trade lies, and $125K losses. Fight back now.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The USDA’s March 2025 milk price forecast slashes earnings by $125K per 500 cows, using contradictory data (more cows = less milk) and distracting from Canada’s “fair trade” hypocrisy. Despite surging butterfat exports (+145%), farmers face ruinous feed costs and HPAI-driven production drops masked as “market dynamics.” The article exposes systemic bias favoring processors over producers and offers actionable tactics: pivot to Class IV markets, lock feed prices, and demand transparency via FOIA lawsuits.

KEY TAKEAWAYS:

USDA’s Impossible Math: Forecasts claim 9.38M cows produce LESS milk than smaller 2024 herds—a provable lie.
Trade War Deception: Canada’s tariffs cost $0.48/cwt, yet U.S. exports dominate ($756.6M vs. $293.3M).
HPAI Distraction: Quarantines cost $12K/day but hide chronic oversupply issues.
Survival Tactics: Shift to Class IV (+145% exports), hedge feed, and sue for USDA algorithm transparency.
Call to Arms: Unite against rigged systems or lose family dairies forever.

2025 milk price forecast, USDA dairy report, dairy trade wars, HPAI impact on dairy, dairy farm survival tactics

The USDA’s March 2025 milk price forecast isn’t just wrong—it’s an economic betrayal wrapped in bureaucratic jargon. Producers face a $125,000 annual loss per 500 cows, all while Washington peddles impossible math and trade war myths. Let’s expose the rot.

1. USDA’s Impossible Cow Equation

The USDA’s March 11 WASDE report offers a masterclass in contradictory logic. On one hand, the agency reports a national herd of 9.38 million cows, marking a 5,000-head increase over 2024. Yet simultaneously, they’ve slashed the 2025 milk production forecast by 700 million pounds from February’s projection.

Metric	Feb 2025 Forecast	March 2025 Forecast	Change
Dairy Herd Size	9.33M cows	9.38M cows	+5,000
Milk Production	226.9B lbs	226.2B lbs	-700M
Milk per Cow (Annual)	24,300 lbs	24,117 lbs	-183

Dr. Marin Bozic, a leading dairy economist at the University of Minnesota, cuts through the noise: “When forecasts change this dramatically, it’s surrender to lobbyists—not science.” The USDA attempts to justify these revisions as responses to “evolving market dynamics,” but their own data reveals a darker truth. If more cows truly produce less milk, either bovine biology has broken down, or the forecasting models have. Given Washington’s track record, producers know where to place their bets.

2. Trade War Reality Check

Canada’s 25% retaliatory tariffs on U.S. butter exports dominated headlines in March, but the real story lies buried in trade data.

Metric	U.S. to Canada (2025 YTD)	Canada to U.S. (2025 YTD)
Total Dairy Exports	$756.6M	$293.3M
Butterfat Shipments	7,101 MT	2,345 MT

Jim Mulhern, CEO of the National Milk Producers Federation, exposes the political theater: “Dairy was sacrificed for auto and tech deals. Farmers are collateral damage.” Critical context reveals the tariff trap: these punitive rates only apply above a 10,000-metric-ton quota—a threshold the U.S. hasn’t reached since 2021. While processors and politicians posture, producers absorb the blow through $0.48/cwt losses in butterfat payouts, all for the illusion of trade war victories.

3. HPAI Smoke Screen Exposed

The USDA’s bird flu narrative collapses under scrutiny. California—ground zero for HPAI outbreaks—reported 754 infected herds and an 8% production drop over two months, according to March 2025 CDFA data.

Metric	Pre-HPAI (Jan 2025)	Post-HPAI (Mar 2025)
Milk Production	3.89B lbs/month	3.58B lbs/month
Avg. Herd Size	1,450 cows	1,430 cows
Feed Costs	$4.65/cwt	$4.92/cwt

Luis Mendes, a fourth-generation California dairy farmer, voices producer frustration: “USDA calls our 8% loss ‘minor fluctuations’ while approving thousands of new cows nationally.” This manufactured crisis distracts from Washington’s failure to address the real issue—chronic oversupply masked as animal health management.

4. Survival Tactics Banned in Washington

To survive this price massacre, producers must reject USDA orthodoxy. First, shift focus to Class IV markets, where butterfat exports surged 145% year-over-year, compared to the stagnant domestic cheese markets dominating Class III pricing. Second, lock in feed costs immediately—CME data shows corn holding at $4.70/bushel with soybean meal up 8% year-over-year.

Strategy	Cost (Per 500 Cows)	Risk Reduction
Class IV Shift	$12,500	22% Price Vol.
Feed Hedging (50% Q2)	$8,200	35% Cost Vol.
FOIA Legal Campaign	$5,000*	N/A

Finally, demand transparency through Freedom of Information Act requests targeting the USDA’s forecasting algorithms. As Sarah Lloyd of the Wisconsin Farmers Union warns: “This isn’t market correction—it’s coordinated price suppression.”

5. The Provocation They Fear

The USDA’s “productivity paradox” isn’t just flawed—it’s economic gaslighting. When 9.38 million cows allegedly produce less than 9.33 million did last year, the numbers scream manipulation. Producers aren’t facing market forces—they’re battling a system rigged to protect processors and politicians.

The Bullvine Bottom Line
“Bet on the liars, not the livestock. Until producers unite to demand algorithmic transparency and trade deal accountability, these massacres will continue.”

Learn more:

USMCA’s Dairy Debacle: How Trade Deals Sold Out American Farmers
Exposes how 2025’s tariff battles trace back to loopholes in the USMCA agreement, with never-before-seen data on processor lobbying influence.
The Hidden Costs of HPAI: How Bird Flu Bankrupts Dairy Farms Behind the Headlines
Reveals the $12,000/day quarantine expenses and long-term herd productivity losses that USDA reports intentionally omit.
Dairy’s Class IV Revolution: Why Smart Farmers Are Ditching Cheese Markets for Export Gold
Details how top-performing dairies leverage butterfat markets to offset USDA price cuts, with a step-by-step shift plan.

Join the Revolution!

Categories : Politics

Tags : 2025 milk price forecast, dairy farm survival tactics, dairy trade wars, HPAI impact on dairy, USDA dairy report

Trade War or Opportunity? Trump’s Dairy Tariff Threat Impacts Farmers on Both Sides of the Border

Thursday, March 20th, 2025

Trump’s tariff tantrum exposes the dairy dilemma: Can two nations with completely different systems avoid a trade war that hurts farmers on both sides?

dairy tariffs, Trump Canada dairy, supply management system, CUSMA dairy, US-Canada dairy trade

The fat lady is warming up to sing for the North American dairy trade relationship, and her name is Donald Trump. On March 7, 2025, the U.S. President threatened to impose identical reciprocal duties on Canadian dairy products, declaring, “Canada has been taking advantage of us for years with their tariffs on lumber and dairy.” This isn’t just another Trump temper tantrum – it represents a critical moment for dairy farmers on both sides of the 49th parallel who face very different but equally challenging realities.

Canada’s supply management system has provided stability for its dairy farmers for decades, while America’s market-driven approach has created a landscape of brutal competition, consolidation, and overproduction. As international pressure mounts and CUSMA negotiations loom, both nations’ dairy sectors face a stark choice: evolve together or continue a damaging cycle of retaliation.

TARIFF THEATRICS: WHAT’S REALLY AT STAKE

“Canada must immediately drop their Anti-American Farmer Tariff of 250 percent to 390 percent on various U.S. dairy products, which has long been considered outrageous,” Trump wrote on Truth Social this March. In the Oval Office, he doubled down, claiming these tariffs “go up to 400 percent — you never hear of that.”

What Trump doesn’t mention – and most Americans don’t realize – is that these prohibitive Canadian tariffs only kick in after the U.S. has hit its negotiated tariff-free quota amounts under CUSMA. The most striking fact? According to Philippe Charlebois, spokesperson for the Canadian Dairy Commission: “To date, 100 percent of U.S. dairy imports to Canada were made free of tariff.”

“To date, 100 percent of U.S. dairy imports to Canada were made free of tariff.” — Philippe Charlebois, Canadian Dairy Commission

THE TARIFF TRUTH: BY THE NUMBERS

Dairy Product	Within-Quota Tariff	Over-Quota Tariff	Trump’s Claim
Milk & Cream (most types)	7.5%	241.0%	“390-400%”
Some Milk-based Fats/Oils	Varies	313.5%	“390-400%”
Butter	0%	298.5%	“390-400%”
Cheese	0%	245.5%	“390-400%”

Sources: Global Affairs Canada Tariff Schedule, Global News reporting

THE 2026 CHESS MATCH: WHO BENEFITS?

The April 2 tariff deadline isn’t about immediate retaliation—it’s about positioning for the CUSMA review coming in 2026. For Canadian farmers, the stakes are existential—preserving a system that has maintained rural communities and stable prices. For American producers, it’s about gaining greater access to a profitable market at a time when they face massive challenges at home.

A February 2025 Texas Tech University study found that U.S. dairy exports to Canada increased by 34% ($519 million) since CUSMA implementation—significant growth but below the 43% increase initially forecast by the U.S. International Trade Commission. The difference? “Canada kept its commitment partially, not fully,” according to researchers, with quota allocations “mostly favoring its processors over U.S. exporters targeting the retail market.”

US DAIRY’S REAL CRISIS: NOT JUST ABOUT CANADA

Because of Trump’s focus on Canadian tariffs, America’s dairy farmers face much more significant problems at home. The National Farmers Union’s President, Rob Larew, recently stated: “Policymakers are focused on U.S. trade policy without solving the underlying problems in the dairy industry—corporate consolidation and continued overproduction.”

Larew points to a sobering statistic: “The number of U.S. dairy farms has plummeted by 84% since 1992, and tariffs only add to the uncertainty, making it even harder for family farmers to stay in business.”

“Policymakers are focused on U.S. trade policy without solving the underlying problems in the dairy industry—corporate consolidation and continued overproduction.” —National Farmers Union President Rob Larew.

Even Washington State dairy farmers, who would theoretically benefit from increased Canadian market access, are skeptical about the impact of Trump’s tariff threats. “I think it’s a matter of access to their market more than being concerned about how they compete in our own,” explains Dan Wood, Washington State Dairy Federation Executive Director.

SIZE MATTERS: THE SCALE DISPARITY

Metric	Canada	United States	Wisconsin Alone
Total Milk Production (2024)	9.4 billion liters	103.4 billion liters	14.5 billion liters
Number of Dairy Farms	9,952	30,085	6,953
Average Herd Size	104 cows	316 cows	191 cows
Average Production Per Farm	945,000 liters/year	3.4 million liters/year	2.1 million liters/year
Average Farm Gate Price (2024)	$0.88 CAD/liter	$0.52 CAD/liter*	$0.52 CAD/liter*

Sources: Canadian Dairy Commission, USDA, Dairy Farmers of Canada, Statistics Canada
*Note: US prices converted to CAD and liters for comparison purposes

This table reveals the fundamental challenge: The state of Wisconsin alone produces more milk than all of Canada. As Pascal Thériault of McGill University points out, “Thinking you will open the Canadian market to U.S. milk and it will solve the U.S. farmers’ problem in dairy doesn’t stand.”

RURAL REALITIES: DIFFERENT SYSTEMS, SHARED CONCERNS

On both sides of the border, dairy farmers worry about the future of rural communities.

For Canadian farmers like Quebec’s Markus Schnegg, nearly all domestic dairy production is consumed within Canada, meaning Trump’s tariffs would affect only a tiny fraction of the market. Their genuine concern is the potential dismantling of supply management – the system that has preserved small and medium-sized dairy operations across rural Canada.

Labor analyst Thomas Fellows paints a concerning picture for U.S. farmers: “One thing that could happen is that with fewer export opportunities, U.S. dairy farmers may face an oversupply, which could push down milk prices domestically, hurting smaller farms in particular. In the long run, however, if low prices persist, small and medium-sized dairy farms may shut down due to financial losses.”

A FOUR-POINT PLAN FOR NORTH AMERICAN DAIRY COOPERATION

Rather than a destructive tariff war, both American and Canadian farmers could benefit from a cooperative approach:

Gradual Market Evolution: A long-term transition (15-20 years) that gives farmers on both sides time to adapt without sudden shocks.
Addressing Overproduction: Collaborative policies to tackle the real crisis in U.S. dairy – chronic overproduction that devastates farm prices.
Value-added Focus: Joint initiatives to develop specialty products where North American dairy can compete globally against European and Oceanian producers.
Rural Transition Support: Programs that help dairy-dependent communities on both sides of the border build resilience through diversification.

“A prolonged tariff war with our top trading partners will continue to create uncertainty and additional costs for American dairy farmers, processors, and rural communities. We urge Canada and the United States to negotiate a resolution to these issues.” — International Dairy Foods Association.

THE BOTTOM LINE: FARMERS OVER POLITICS

The dairy industries in both countries stand at a crossroads. Trump’s April 2 tariff deadline is just the beginning of what could be years of destructive trade tension.

The hard truth is that neither blunt force tariffs nor rigid protection of the status quo will serve farmers well. As the International Dairy Foods Association stated, “A prolonged tariff war with our top trading partners will continue to create uncertainty and additional costs for American dairy farmers, processors, and our rural communities.”

The absolute priority shouldn’t be scoring political points but creating dairy systems on both sides of the border that ensure family farmers can thrive in rural communities while adapting to 21st-century market realities. The question isn’t whether Canada’s system or America’s approach is superior – it’s how we can learn from each other to create something better for farmers in both nations.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

Scale disparity is fundamental: Wisconsin alone produces more milk than all of Canada combined, meaning Canadian market access can’t solve America’s overproduction crisis
Both systems have failed farmers differently: Canadian supply management creates millionaire farmers but locks out new entrants, while America’s free market approach has eliminated 84% of dairy farms since 1992
Political rhetoric masks economic reality: Trump’s tariff threats focus on high over-quota tariffs that have never actually been paid, as U.S. exports haven’t exceeded duty-free quotas
Rural communities are the real stakeholders: Dairy farmers in both countries share concerns about preserving rural economies despite different regulatory approaches
The path forward requires cooperation: A gradual 15-20 year transition with policies addressing overproduction, value-added product development, and rural support would benefit farmers on both sides more than tariff wars.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: As Trump threatens 250% retaliatory tariffs on Canadian dairy imports, farmers on both sides of the border face a pivotal moment in North American dairy trade relations. While Canada’s supply management system has created stability at the cost of innovation, America’s market-driven approach has produced scale but devastating overproduction that crushes prices. The article reveals that despite Trump’s claims, 100% of U.S. dairy imports to Canada currently enter tariff-free under negotiated quotas, with exports to Canada increasing 34% since CUSMA implementation. Neither system is working perfectly for farmers, and the upcoming 2026 CUSMA review presents an opportunity to develop collaborative solutions that preserve rural communities while addressing chronic market failures rather than engaging in destructive tariff wars.

Learn more:

TRUMP’S 250% DAIRY TARIFF THREAT: What’s Really at Stake for Your Farm – With President Trump threatening 250% retaliatory tariffs starting April 2, producers on both sides face significant market disruptions that could permanently alter North American dairy trade patterns.
DAIRY TARIFF TSUNAMI: Kerrygold Stockpiles as Trump’s Trade War Threatens Your Milk Check – Kerrygold’s emergency stockpiling reveals what Trump’s tariffs mean for your milk check as dairy’s perfect storm is brewing. Find out if your operation is prepared for the coming market volatility.
Waste Not, Want Not: The Untold Story of Canada’s Dairy Surplus – Why do Canada’s dairy farms waste 7% of their milk? Is it time to revamp supply management? Dive into the impact and explore solutions for Canada’s controversial dairy system.

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Categories : Politics

Tags : CUSMA dairy, dairy tariffs, supply management system, Trump Canada dairy

USDA’s $10 Billion Farm Handout Leaves Dairy Producers High and Dry: What ECAP Means for Your Bottom Line

Thursday, March 20th, 2025

Washington throws $10 billion at farmers while dairy gets milked dry. Cotton: $84.74/acre. Corn: $42.91/acre. Dairy producers? ZERO. Learn how to cash in anyway.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The USDA’s new $10 billion Emergency Commodity Assistance Program (ECAP) delivers generous per-acre payments to crop producers while completely shutting out dairy operations from direct support, forcing dairy farmers to hope for trickle-down benefits from stabilized feed prices that economists doubt will materialize. Applications opened March 19 (running through August 15) for crop producers who stand to receive substantial payments like $84.74/acre for cotton and $42.91/acre for corn, while dairy farmers face negative margins due to high feed costs with zero direct assistance. Dairy producers growing their own feed can submit applications to receive payments on those acres, with the program offering 85% of calculated benefits initially and potentially more after the application period closes. The stark contrast between American dairy policy and Canada’s supply management system reveals how Washington consistently treats dairy as a second-class agricultural sector, with Canadian producers enjoying stable prices and significantly better financial metrics than their American counterparts.

KEY TAKEAWAYS:

Act immediately if you grow eligible crops: If your dairy operation includes corn, soybeans, wheat or other eligible commodities, apply online at fsa.usda.gov/ecap before August 15, 2025 to receive payments of $42.91/acre for corn, $29.76/acre for soybeans, and other crop-specific rates.
Understand the real financial impact: A 1,000-acre diversified dairy farm might receive approximately $31,043 in ECAP payments (after 85% prorating), covering roughly one month of feed costs for a 300-cow operation—helpful but not transformative.
Maximize your payment potential: Ensure all eligible double-cropped acres are properly documented, consider reporting any previously unreported 2024 crop acres, and if at least 75% of your income (2020-2022) came from agriculture, you may qualify for increased payment limits of $250,000 versus the standard $125,000.
Don’t expect lower feed prices: According to dairy economists, these payments to crop producers rarely translate to lower feed costs, as subsidies typically get capitalized into land values rather than leading to price reductions.
Compare and contrast: While Canadian dairy farmers enjoy price stability (less than 2% annual fluctuation) under their supply management system, American producers face 15-25% annual price volatility and significantly lower net farm income—a direct result of fundamentally different policy approaches.

USDA farm subsidies, Emergency Commodity Assistance Program, dairy farm support, agricultural payment rates, dairy feed costs

While grain farmers prepare to cash government checks under USDA’s massive new $10 billion Emergency Commodity Assistance Program, dairy producers are once again left squeezing profits from government table scraps.

Secretary Rollins’s announcement delivers eye-popping direct payments to crop producers while dairy farmers must hope for indirect benefits through potentially stabilized feed costs.

Is this another case of Washington bureaucrats forgetting who actually feeds America, or is there a hidden opportunity for smart dairy operators to grab their piece of this federal cash cow? The Bullvine investigates what this REALLY means for your bottom line.

BREAKING: APPLICATION FLOODGATES NOW OPEN

The ink is barely dry on Secretary Brooke Rollins’ March 18th announcement, but the race for $10 billion in emergency farm cash officially began yesterday. Applications for the Emergency Commodity Assistance Program (ECAP) opened March 19 and will run through August 15, 2025.

This program—authorized by the American Relief Act, 2025—aims to offset skyrocketing production costs and plummeting commodity prices that have farm country in a financial stranglehold.

“Producers are facing higher costs and market uncertainty, and the Trump Administration is ensuring they get the support they need without delay.” – Secretary Rollins

“With clear direction from Congress, USDA has prioritized streamlining the process and accelerating these payments ahead of schedule, ensuring farmers have the resources necessary to manage rising expenses and secure financing for next season.”

FOLLOW THE MONEY: WHO GETS WHAT?

The payment structure reveals exactly where Washington’s priorities lie—and it’s not with dairy farmers. Take a look at these per-acre rates for all eligible commodities:

Commodity	Payment Rate ($/acre)	Commodity	Payment Rate ($/acre)
Barley	$21.67	Flax	$20.97
Large Chickpeas	$24.02	Mustard	$11.36
Small Chickpeas	$31.45	Rapeseed	$23.63
Corn	$42.91	Safflower	$26.32
Cotton	$84.74	Sesame	$16.83
Dry Peas	$16.02	Sunflowers	$27.23
Sorghum	$42.52	Peanuts	$75.51
Lentils	$19.30	Rice	$76.94
Oats	$77.66	Soybeans	$29.76
Canola	$31.83	Wheat	$30.69
Crambe	$19.08

Source: USDA Federal Register listing

Not a single direct payment for dairy operations. Not one penny. Meanwhile, cotton growers will receive $84.74 per acre.

For the feed growers among you, payments will be calculated on a simple formula: eligible acres × commodity rate. Prevented planting acres qualify at 50% of the full rate. Double-cropped acres can receive payments for both eligible commodities if they’re in an approved double-cropping combination.

Payment limitations are set at $125,000 for producers with less than 75% of income from agriculture, and $250,000 for producers with 75% or more income from agriculture based on 2020-2022 tax years.

The payments come as corn and soybean prices have been stagnant or lower since the crop insurance price was set in February at $4.70 a bushel for corn and $10.54 a bushel for soybeans.

Economists for corn and soybean groups said earlier this month that farmers, on average, are facing $100 an acre loss planting either crop this spring. That’s especially hard-hitting for dairy producers who grow their own feed and face the double-whammy of crop losses and tight dairy margins.

FARM SUPPORT DISPARITIES

Direct Support Comparison: 2024-2025

Cotton: $84.74/acre × 1,000 acres = $84,740 direct payment
Corn: $42.91/acre × 1,000 acres = $42,910 direct payment
Soybeans: $29.76/acre × 1,000 acres = $29,760 direct payment
Dairy Production: $0 direct payment under ECAP

Feed Cost Impact on Dairy Margins

Cost of producing milk without feed: ~$10.50/cwt
Feed costs: ~$9.00-$11.00/cwt
Total production cost: ~$19.50-$21.50/cwt
Current milk price: ~$18.25/cwt
Current margin: -$1.25 to -$3.25/cwt

Source: USDA data, University of Wisconsin Dairy Margin Calculator, March 2025

THE DAIRY DILEMMA: INDIRECT BENEFITS OR INDUSTRY BETRAYAL?

While crop producers celebrate their windfall, dairy farmers face a familiar scenario—watching from the sidelines as other agricultural sectors receive direct support.

The $10 billion ECAP contains no specific provisions for dairy operations despite rising feed costs eating away at already thin margins across the industry.

The supposed benefit to dairy comes indirectly: stabilized feed markets might—emphasis on might—translate to more predictable input costs. But there’s no guarantee that ECAP payments will actually lower feed prices for dairy operations.

Dr. Marin Bozic, dairy economist at the University of Minnesota, cautions against expecting significant feed price relief from these payments: “Historical evidence from similar programs suggests that direct payments to crop producers rarely translate to lower feed costs for livestock operations. The subsidy gets capitalized into land values and farm equity rather than leading to lower commodity prices. In fact, by encouraging production, we might see temporary price depression followed by increased price volatility—precisely what dairy farmers don’t need.”

This pattern of relegating dairy to second-class status in federal assistance programs speaks volumes about Washington’s understanding of agricultural economics.

While dairy remains one of the most labor-intensive, capital-intensive, and economically significant agricultural sectors, federal relief consistently flows more generously to crop producers.

5 STRATEGIC MOVES: MAXIMIZING YOUR FARM’S POSITION

Despite being dealt a weak hand, savvy dairy operators still have plays to make:

Double-Duty Acreage: If you grow your own feed crops, submit ECAP applications immediately. The program explicitly covers double-cropped acres in approved combinations, so ensure all eligible rotations are properly documented.
Late Acreage Reporting: Haven’t reported your 2024 crop acres yet? You’re not out of luck. USDA is accepting acreage reports until the August 15, 2025 deadline. Don’t leave money on the table.
Payment Limitation Strategy: Gross income calculation is based on “total income” from IRS forms for 2020-2022. Producers with at least 75% of their average gross income from agriculture can qualify for increased payment limitations of $250,000 versus the standard $125,000 cap.
Online Calculator: Use the FSA’s ECAP calculator at fsa.usda.gov/ecap to estimate potential payments before filing. Knowledge is leverage when planning cash flow and negotiating with lenders and suppliers.
Application Options: Apply online at fsa.usda.gov/ecap, visit your local FSA county office in person, submit electronically using Box and One-Span, or fax your application. The fastest route to payment is likely the online application. Pre-filled applications will be mailed to producers who reported eligible commodities as of March 10, 2025.

WHAT IT MEANS FOR YOUR OPERATION: THE REAL MATH

Let’s break down what this actually means for different dairy operations:

1,000-Acre Diversified Dairy Farm Example:

500 acres corn ($42.91/acre): $21,455
300 acres soybeans ($29.76/acre): $8,928
200 acres wheat ($30.69/acre): $6,138
Total potential payment: $36,521
With 85% prorating factor: $31,043

A 1,000-acre diversified dairy farm might receive $31,043 after prorating—enough to cover roughly one month of feed costs for a 300-cow dairy. And for dairy-only operations buying all feed? $0 in direct payments.

That’s helpful, but hardly transformative. And for dairy-only operations buying all their feed? They’ll see $0 in direct payments while hoping their suppliers might pass along some savings.

NORTH OF THE BORDER: A STARK CONTRAST IN DAIRY ECONOMICS

While American dairy farmers struggle with boom-bust cycles and indirect support mechanisms, Canadian dairy producers operate under a fundamentally different system with dramatically different results.

The Canadian supply management system ensures that dairy farmers receive stable, cost-of-production-based prices regardless of market volatility. According to Dairy Farmers of Canada and Statistics Canada data:

Canadian dairy farm net operating income: Average of CAD $427,329 (approximately USD $313,000) in 2023
U.S. dairy farm net farm income: Average of USD $189,520 in 2023
Canadian milk price stability: Fluctuation of less than 2% annually
U.S. milk price volatility: Fluctuation of 15-25% annually
Canadian dairy farm debt-to-asset ratio: 0.16
U.S. dairy farm debt-to-asset ratio: 0.31

The results speak for themselves. While Canadian dairy farmers invest with confidence in modernization and efficiency improvements, American dairy producers must navigate a policy environment that treats them as afterthoughts to crop production.

“Canadian dairy farmers are making capital improvements and operational decisions based on predictable returns,” says Bruce Muirhead, Professor at the University of Waterloo and dairy policy expert. “Their American counterparts are stuck in a cycle of crisis management, watching as government assistance flows to other sectors while hoping for indirect benefits.”

THE BIGGER PICTURE: FARM POLICY CHALLENGES

ECAP represents just one piece of a larger package. Beyond the economic aid for crop producers, farmers who suffered losses from natural disasters in 2023 and 2024 should expect details soon about how USDA will distribute nearly $21 billion in disaster aid, including $2 billion set aside specifically for livestock producers.

For dairy producers specifically, the silence in ECAP is deafening. As feed costs remain one of the largest expenses in milk production, a program that might influence feed markets without addressing dairy directly represents another missed opportunity to support an industry that operates 365 days a year with razor-thin margins.

THE BOTTOM LINE: ACT NOW, DEMAND BETTER

While ECAP falls woefully short for dairy producers, ignoring it entirely would be financial malpractice. If you grow eligible crops on your dairy operation, applications opened yesterday (March 19). The online application at fsa.usda.gov/ecap is your fastest route to payment, though local FSA offices can also process applications in person.

The stark reality is that Washington continues to undervalue dairy’s contribution to America’s food security and rural economies. As we watch another round of agricultural assistance flow primarily to crop production, the industry must demand better.

While Canadian dairy farmers enjoy stable, guaranteed prices under their supply management system, American producers get nothing but hope that crop subsidies might somehow benefit them. The contrast couldn’t be more striking – one system designed to maintain producer profitability, the other seemingly designed to keep them perpetually struggling.

The next time Secretary Rollins announces billions in agricultural relief, dairy producers shouldn’t have to squint to find their benefit. Until then, we’ll continue doing what dairy farmers have always done—working twice as hard for half the recognition, turning thin margins into sustenance for an ungrateful nation, and wondering when those making agricultural policy will actually visit a working dairy farm.

But first, if you have eligible crop acres, get your application in. The government may not understand dairy, but that doesn’t mean you should leave their money on the table.

Learn more

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Categories : Politics

Tags : agricultural payment rates, dairy farm support, Emergency Commodity Assistance Program, USDA farm subsidies

Dairy Farmers in the Crosshairs: EU-US Trade War Threatens Feed Supplies

Monday, March 17th, 2025

Bureaucrats’ tariff war puts your dairy farm at risk! Feed costs could skyrocket €25,000 per 100 cows annually. Can your operation survive?

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: European dairy farmers face a devastating double blow as retaliatory tariffs between the EU and US threaten critical feed ingredient supply chains, coming just months after Brussels imposed an 85% duty on Chinese lysine imports. With feed representing up to 70% of production expenses, mid-sized operations could see cost increases of €15,000-€25,000 annually per 100 cows—potentially eliminating entire profit margins during an already challenging market period. Despite the 2018 Trump-Juncker agreement demonstrating that targeted agricultural trade deals can successfully navigate broader tensions, policymakers have sacrificed agricultural interests for industrial priorities. European producers now face a strategic vulnerability due to the region’s structural deficit in protein-rich feed ingredients, requiring immediate action to secure feed contracts, evaluate alternatives, and pressure industry associations for political intervention.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

Double Crisis: EU dairy farms face two simultaneous feed crises – 85% tariffs on Chinese lysine and new retaliatory tariffs on US feed ingredients
Financial Impact: For a 100-cow operation, expect €15,000-€25,000 in additional annual feed costs, potentially wiping out your entire profit margin
Historical Solution Ignored: The successful 2018 Trump-Juncker agreement provides a proven diplomatic template that policymakers are inexplicably ignoring
Immediate Action Required: Lock in feed contracts now, consult with nutritionists on alternatives, and calculate your operation’s financial breaking point
Vulnerability Exposed: This crisis highlights the dangerous dependency created by Europe’s structural deficit in protein-rich feed ingredients, requiring long-term solutions

While bureaucrats in Brussels and Washington play their high-stakes trade chess game, dairy farmers across Europe are about to become the sacrificial pawns. The EU’s newly announced retaliatory tariffs targeting American feed ingredients aren’t just numbers on a policy document – they’re a direct assault on your farm’s profitability in an already challenging market. With feed costs representing up to 70% of production expenses, this political power play could be the breaking point for thousands of dairy operations caught in the crossfire. The Bullvine investigates who’s to blame and what innovative producers should do before feed prices explode.

Tariffs Target Critical Feed Ingredients as Market Volatility Hits

The EU Commission’s retaliatory tariffs against US agricultural imports aren’t just abstract policy—they directly hit your farm’s bottom line. When critical feed components like soybeans, corn, and essential feed additives face tariffs, those costs don’t disappear—they land squarely on your shoulders.

“With China, we have one of our largest and most significant markets for dairy products back in operation.”
—Cem Oezdemir, German Agriculture Minister

Meanwhile, European dairy farmers face escalating input costs due to political miscalculations. The contrast couldn’t be more precise—some trade relationships are strengthened while others crumble.

For the average 100-cow dairy operation, feed cost increases could range from €15,000 to €25,000 annually, depending on your feed ration composition. That’s not a rounding error—it’s potentially wiping out your entire profit margin in an industry already squeezed by tight margins and volatile milk prices.

Market reaction has been swift and telling—Chicago soybean futures for May 2025 immediately dropped 1.0%, while corn futures plummeted 2.1% following the announcement. These fluctuations signal the beginning of extreme market volatility as supply chains adjust to the new tariff reality.

Feed Price Impact: By The Numbers

Feed Component	Price Change	Impact Factor
Complete feed mixes	+€10-30 per 100kg	EU-China lysine tariffs
Corn-based feed	-2.1% futures price	Initial US tariff announcement
Soybean products	-1.0% futures price	Initial US tariff announcement
Lysine additives	+85% import duty	EU tariff on Chinese imports

The most vulnerable operations? Mid-sized family farms have limited capacity to absorb additional feed costs and lack economies of scale that more extensive operations might leverage to negotiate better prices. These are precisely the farms already struggling to stay afloat across rural Europe.

EU’s 85% Duty on Essential Amino Acid Drives Feed Costs Higher.

The EU-US tariff battle isn’t even the first blow to European dairy producers this year. In mid-January, the European Commission imposed a staggering 85% import duty on lysine from China—an essential amino acid critical for dairy cattle nutrition that promotes growth, development, and immune function.

The impact was immediate and severe. Feed manufacturers are projecting price increases between €10-30 per 100 kilograms of feed in the coming days, according to agricultural publication Agrarheute.

What makes this situation particularly outrageous is the EU’s self-imposed vulnerability. “Of the total imported amino acid lysine, China accounts for around 70%,” pointed out Stefan Köhler, a European Parliament’s Agriculture and Food Committee member. There aren’t enough alternative suppliers to meet European demand.

“Animal feed manufacturers are deeply concerned about the high level of temporary EU tariffs on the essential amino acid lysine.” —Dr. Hermann-Josef Baaken, spokesman for the German Animal Nutrition Association

Industry groups, including the European Food Industry Association (FEFAC), the German Animal Nutrition Association (DVT), and the Raiffeisen Association (DRV), are calling for the Commission to withdraw these damaging anti-dumping duties retroactively.

Especially troubling are reports that these harmful tariffs may have been imposed due to political pressure rather than genuine market concerns. Unofficial sources suggest a large French producer unable to compete with Chinese prices lobbied Brussels through the French government—creating a situation where dairy farmers across Europe are forced to subsidize a single company’s business model.

Bureaucrats Sacrifice Farm Interests for Industrial Priorities

Let’s cut through the political double-talk and address the elephant in the barn: European dairy farmers are collateral damage in a trade dispute that has nothing to do with agriculture. This tariff war began with steel and aluminum—yet farmers will somehow pay the price.

The EU claims these retaliatory tariffs were unavoidable responses to US trade aggression, but that’s cold comfort when feed costs are skyrocketing. The bureaucratic elite in Brussels made a calculated decision to target US agricultural exports, knowing full well that European livestock producers would absorb significant financial pain. It’s a classic case of agricultural interests being sacrificed for industrial priorities.

“A prolonged tariff war will deliver significant economic damage to American dairy farmers, processors, and rural communities.”
—International Dairy Foods Association

This warning from the IDFA applies equally to European producers. When agriculture becomes a bargaining chip in broader trade disputes, rural communities on both sides of the Atlantic suffer the consequences.

Research shows that tariff reductions generally stimulate increased trade while tariff increases predictably reduce trade activity—a principle demonstrated by immediate market reactions to policy announcements. Yet policymakers continue to use agricultural trade as a weapon in broader economic disputes despite knowing the devastating consequences for rural communities.

Where are the agricultural ministers and rural advocates who should be raising alarm bells? Their silence is deafening. Instead of protecting their constituencies, they’ve fallen in line with a retaliatory strategy that treats dairy farmers as acceptable casualties.

The 2018 Soy Agreement Proved Diplomatic Solutions Exist

This isn’t our first rodeo with US-EU agricultural trade disputes. In 2018, the “Trump-Juncker” agreement on soy products demonstrated that targeted agricultural trade deals can successfully navigate broader trade tensions. That agreement catapulted the US into the top position for soy exports to the EU for the first time, creating a win-win situation for producers on both sides of the Atlantic.

“EU imports from the U.S. can easily be doubled from 4 billion euros to 8 billion euros, thereby diminishing the existing U.S. agricultural trade deficit with the EU.”
—Pedro Cordero, FEFAC President

The opportunity for growth is right there, spelled out in black and white by industry leaders. So why are politicians choosing conflict over cooperation?

Why aren’t officials pursuing this proven strategy now? The 2018 agreement could serve as a blueprint for resolving the current dispute with a comprehensive arrangement covering feed ingredients, including US corn and essential feed additives. European dairy farmers benefited significantly from that stability—starkly contrasting today’s brewing chaos.

Farmers Across Europe Sound the Alarm on Feed Costs

“This is bureaucracy gone mad,” says Franz Muller, who operates a 120-cow dairy in Bavaria. “My feed costs will increase by at least €18,000 annually based on my supplier’s preliminary estimates. That’s roughly equivalent to the annual salary of one of my employees. Who should I fire because politicians can’t resolve their disputes?”

Similar frustrations echo across European dairy regions. In the Netherlands, cooperative feed mill manager Joren van der Meer reports fielding dozens of calls from worried producers: “They’re asking if they should lock in long-term contracts now before prices surge further. But honestly, I can’t give them solid advice because we don’t know how long this dispute will last or how bad it will get.”

Irish dairy farmer Siobhan O’Connell puts it bluntly: “We survived COVID. We managed through Brexit disruptions. We’re adapting to climate regulations. But this trade war might finally break us because it attacks our most basic input—affordable feed.”

EU’s Structural Deficit in Protein-Rich Feed Ingredients

This trade dispute highlights a dangerous strategic vulnerability in European dairy production. The EU faces a structural deficit in protein-rich feed ingredients, making the sector dependent on stable international trade relationships. When those relationships deteriorate, the entire production system becomes precarious.

FEFAC President Pedro Cordero didn’t mince words when he warned that the proposed tariffs “could undermine joint efforts and may lead to the disruption of vital feed supply chains. ” He highlighted the EU’s continued reliance on essential feed imports, especially protein-rich products like soybeans, maize, and feed additives, where the region faces significant shortfalls.

“[These tariffs would] negatively impact the resilience and competitiveness of EU livestock production systems.”
—Pedro Cordero, FEFAC President

This isn’t hyperbole or political posturing—it’s a stark assessment from the organization representing European feed manufacturers who understand precisely what’s at stake.

Dr. Hermann-Josef Baaken from the German Animal Nutrition Association pointed out another critical concern: “It is unusual for the European Commission to impose anti-dumping duties on goods for which there is a high dependence on imports.” This observation applies equally to the lysine situation and the potential US feed ingredient tariffs—policymakers seem determined to ignore supply chain realities.

As Baaken suggests, the EU should encourage investments to increase domestic production of essential feed ingredients rather than disrupt established supply chains. Without such domestic capacity, European dairy producers remain at the mercy of geopolitical disputes and trade policy whims.

5 Steps to Protect Your Farm from Tariff Fallout

While politicians dither, innovative producers need concrete action plans. Here’s what The Bullvine recommends:

Lock in feed contracts now: Contact your suppliers immediately to explore locking in longer-term contracts before tariff impacts fully materialize in pricing.
Evaluate alternative protein sources: Work with your nutritionist to identify potential substitutions that might mitigate cost increases. European-grown protein crops may become more price-competitive despite typically lower protein concentrations.
Run stress tests on your operation: Model various feed cost increase scenarios (10%, 20%, 30%) to understand precisely where your breaking point lies and what operational adjustments might be necessary.
Join the political fight. Industry associations need to hear your voice. The louder farmers protest these tariffs, the more pressure will build on politicians to exempt agricultural products.
Explore feed efficiency technologies: This crisis incentivizes investing in precision feeding systems that can reduce waste and maximize nutrient utilization.

Quick Response Checklist for Dairy Producers

✓ Contact your feed supplier today about long-term contract options
✓ Request an emergency nutrition consultation to discuss feed alternatives
✓ Calculate your operation’s “breaking point” at different feed cost thresholds
✓ Email your industry association demanding action on agricultural tariff exemptions
✓ Schedule a consultation with a precision feeding specialist

Farmers Demand Solutions as Trade Tensions Escalate

The escalating US-EU tariff war represents a clear and present danger to European dairy operations following the already damaging lysine tariffs against China. Farmers and policymakers must take FEFAC’s warning about vital feed supply chain disruptions seriously. While bureaucrats in Brussels and Washington engage in diplomatic theater, honest livelihoods hang in the balance.

The historical success of the 2018 soy products agreement offers a template for resolution, but farmers can’t afford to wait for politicians to rediscover common sense. Immediate planning for feed security and cost management is essential.

This situation underscores the strategic vulnerability created by Europe’s structural deficit in protein-rich feed ingredients. Long-term solutions must include developing domestic protein production capacity alongside more stable international trade frameworks that don’t use agricultural products as bargaining chips in unrelated disputes.

For now, European dairy farmers are caught in the political crossfire that is not their making. The Bullvine will continue monitoring this developing crisis while advocating for immediate exemption of agricultural products from this damaging tariff war. Your farm’s survival may depend on it.

Learn more:

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Categories : Politics

Tags : Dairy Farm Profitability, Dairy feed tariffs, dairy industry trade policies, EU-US trade war, livestock feed costs

DAIRY TARIFF TSUNAMI: Kerrygold Stockpiles as Trump’s Trade War Threatens Your Milk Check

Monday, March 17th, 2025

Kerrygold’s emergency stockpiling reveals what Trump’s tariffs mean for your milk check. Dairy’s perfect storm is brewing—are you prepared?

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Ornua’s aggressive stockpiling of Kerrygold butter in American warehouses signals imminent disruption as President Trump’s promised tariffs threaten to reshape global dairy trade. CEO Conor Galvin’s candid admission that they’ve “moved product into the US in anticipation of tariffs increasing” confirms The Bullvine’s warnings about impending market volatility. While US dairy leaders acknowledge potential short-term benefits for some domestic producers, economic modeling suggests inevitable retaliatory measures would erase any gains within months. Current component values show butterfat at .91/lb remains most vulnerable to market disruption, with farms having at least 6-9 months of financial reserves historically 3.5 times more likely to maintain positive cash flow during trade disputes. Industry experts emphasize that operations with diversified market exposure and strong processor relationships will weather this tariff tsunami, while those unprepared risk becoming collateral damage in an escalating trade war.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

VERIFIED THREAT: Ornua CEO confirms active stockpiling of Kerrygold products ahead of tariffs, demonstrating foremost market leaders are treating this as a certainty, not a possibility
FINANCIAL PREPARATION CRITICAL: Operations with 6-9 months of liquid reserves (twice the standard recommendation) survived previous trade disputes at 3.5x the rate of undercapitalized farms
PROCESSOR RELATIONSHIP MATTERS: Your milk’s destination determines your vulnerability—farms should immediately question processors about export exposure and contingency plans
COMPONENT STRATEGY: With butterfat currently valued at $2.91/lb, understand how EU butter tariffs could temporarily boost then ultimately crash component values as retaliatory measures impact exports
TIMING IS EVERYTHING: Forward contracting 40-50% of production now could protect margins, as CME futures currently reflect favorable pricing compared to expected spot markets under tariff conditions

dairy tariffs, Kerrygold butter, Trump trade war, global dairy markets, milk check impact

While Washington and Brussels exchange threats in an escalating trade dispute, dairy farmers worldwide are watching their potential profits evaporate. Ornua, the maker of Kerrygold butter, has already taken defensive measures that confirm what The Bullvine has been warning about for months – the new administration’s tariff plans will reshape dairy trade patterns and potentially devastate unprepared producers.

With President Trump now in office and dairy markets already navigating challenging conditions, the stakes for your operation’s bottom line couldn’t be higher.

EMERGENCY STOCKPILING: Ornua’s Desperate Move to Protect Kerrygold

In a revealing move that speaks volumes about the seriousness of this threat, Ornua has been quietly stockpiling Kerrygold products in American warehouses for months. This isn’t speculation – it’s straight from Ornua CEO Conor Galvin himself.

“We’ve moved product into the US in anticipation of tariffs increasing. We are working very closely with our logistics partners to ensure that what we have available will be in the US ahead of any decision made by the US administration.” — Conor Galvin, Ornua CEO.

Galvin’s candid assessment doesn’t stop there. He acknowledged working ” closely with logistics partners” to ensure product availability before any White House decisions.

But here’s the sobering reality check every dairy farmer needs to hear – Galvin admits their stockpiling strategy has severe limitations:

“But the reality is, that won’t help us for the butter we make in 2025, the cows you haven’t milked yet. So there is only so much we can do.” — Conor Galvin, Ornua CEO.

When a market leader like Ornua takes emergency measures, every dairy producer should pay attention. Kerrygold isn’t just another European import – it’s established itself as the second-largest butter brand in America.

If tariffs hit Kerrygold, the ripple effects from Irish family farms to American dairy cases will be felt.

THE HARD NUMBERS: Current Dairy Markets Before the Storm

Before discussing potential tariff impacts, let’s clarify where the market stands. The latest USDA data shows the actual price points that could be affected by any trade disruption:

Commodity	Price ($/lb)
Butter	$2.5748
Nonfat Dry Milk	$1.3952
Cheese (40-lb Blocks)	$1.7583
Cheese (500-lb Barrels)	$1.7326
Dry Whey	$0.6353

These wholesale commodity prices directly influence what you get paid for your milk. Any disruption from tariffs would immediately impact these fundamental price points that drive your operation’s profitability.

TARIFF TECHNICALITIES: Understanding the Import Codes That Could Impact You

European butter imports like Kerrygold currently enter the US under Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS) code 0405.10.20, with a general duty rate of 12.3¢/kg. If new tariffs target this, the rate could increase substantially, directly impacting retail pricing and market competition.

According to the US International Trade Commission, dairy products from Ireland accounted for $553 million in US imports last year, with butter and cheese representing the most significant categories. Any across-the-board tariff would dramatically alter this trading relationship and disrupt established market channels.

TRUMP’S TARIFF PLAYBOOK: What We Know for Certain

The speculation about potential tariffs isn’t theoretical anymore. President Trump campaigned explicitly to impose import tariffs on European Union exports to the United States.

More specifically, he stated that on his first day in office, he would sign an executive order implementing a substantial 25% tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico while imposing a 10% tariff on Chinese goods.

While these initial announcements didn’t specifically target European dairy, the administration’s protectionist stance and campaign promises regarding EU trade suggest dairy products remain vulnerable.

Given the president’s previous statements about restoring American manufacturing through aggressive trade policy, any dairy operation dependent on export markets should be prepared for potential disruption.

WHAT U.S. DAIRY LEADERS ARE SAYING

The National Milk Producers Federation (NMPF) has taken a measured but concerned stance on the developing trade situation.

“While selective tariffs might benefit some domestic producers in the short term, our industry ultimately thrives on balanced trade relationships. Any trade policy changes must be carefully implemented to avoid retaliatory measures that could harm our export markets, which account for approximately 18% of U.S. milk production.” — Jim Mulhern, President & CEO, National Milk Producers Federation.

Mulhern’s diplomatic statement masks a more profound industry concern. According to U.S. Dairy Export Council data, the U.S. exported nearly $9.5 billion in dairy products last year – meaning any retaliatory measures could put significant revenue at risk for American dairy farmers.

THE CRITICAL TIMELINE: Acting Before It’s Too Late

The clock is ticking. President Trump took office in January 2025, and we’re now in mid-March. The president’s early trade actions have already shown his administration intends to follow through on campaign promises regarding tariffs.

For dairy farmers and processors, this compressed timeline means:

The window for preemptive stockpiling (like Ornua’s strategy) has largely closed
Future dairy production decisions need to account for potential market disruptions
New processing and export relationships need to be established quickly if current channels face tariff threats

WHAT THE ECONOMISTS SAY: Learning From History

Agricultural economists who’ve studied previous trade disputes offer a sobering perspective. Dr. Christopher Hurt, Professor Emeritus of Agricultural Economics at Purdue University, notes significant historical parallels:

“Looking back at the 2018-2019 trade tensions, dairy farmers who diversified their market exposure and maintained 6-9 months of financial reserves weathered the volatility better than those operating with minimal cushion. The data shows that farms with strong processor relationships and flexible production strategies maintained profitability even as export-dependent operations saw margins compress by 15-20%.”

Dr. Hurt’s analysis reminds us that trade disputes are eventually resolved, but surviving until resolution requires strategic planning and financial flexibility.

PROTECT YOUR FARM: Actionable Strategies for Smart Operators

The Bullvine isn’t in the business of sugar-coating reality. Here’s what competent dairy operators should be doing right now based on current milk pricing fundamentals:

Federal Milk Order Class Prices (December 2024)

Class	Price ($/cwt)	Monthly Change
Class II	$21.28	-$0.24
Class III	$18.62	-$1.33
Class IV	$20.74	-$0.38

These numbers tell the real story – all major milk classes saw price declines in December, with Class III (cheese milk) taking the biggest hit at -.33/cwt. This downward trajectory creates an even more vulnerable environment if tariffs further disrupt markets.

1. DIVERSIFY YOUR MARKET EXPOSURE

If you’re selling to processors heavily dependent on exports to markets facing potential tariffs, it’s time to have serious conversations about diversification. Please don’t wait until those processors are forced to cut prices because their export channels get squeezed.

Concrete examples: Farmers in the Northeast are finding opportunities with regional cheese processors focused on domestic specialty markets, while Midwest producers are exploring contracts with processors developing value-added protein ingredients for the fitness industry—both segments are less vulnerable to import competition.

2. WATCH PROCESSING CAPACITY CLOSELY

As companies like Ornua adjust their production and export strategies, processing capacity could shift regionally. Be prepared for potential overcapacity in export-dependent regions and undercapacity in domestic market-focused areas.

3. BUILD STRATEGIC RESERVES

Ornua’s stockpiling strategy works for shelf-stable products like butter, but all dairy operations need financial reserves to weather market volatility. Financial advisors specializing in dairy recommend maintaining liquid reserves covering 6-9 months of operating expenses during periods of trade uncertainty – well above the typical 3-month cushion recommended during stable market conditions.

During the 2018-2019 China-US trade dispute, Farm Credit Services data showed operations with at least 6 months of operating reserves were 3.5 times more likely to maintain positive cash flow throughout the market disruption.

4. ALIGN WITH STRONG PROCESSORS

Not all processors will face equal impact. Those with diversified international markets or strong domestic positions will navigate these waters more successfully. Your farm’s future may depend on which processor’s truck arrives at your tank.

Forward contracting opportunity: According to CME Group data, Class III milk futures will trade more favorably than expected spot market prices if tariffs are implemented for the next six months. Producers should consider locking in at least 40-50% of production at current levels.

FOLLOW THE MONEY: Component Values Driving Your Milk Check

Understanding the specific components driving your milk price reveals where tariff impacts might hit hardest:

Component	Price ($/lb)
Butterfat	$2.9104
Protein	$1.9637
Nonfat Solids	$1.2151
Other Solids	$0.4493

Look closely at these numbers. Butterfat at $2.91/lb remains the most valuable component in your milk, with protein second at $1.96/lb. If tariffs disrupt butter markets (like Kerrygold), the butterfat value that drives your milk check could face significant pressure.

Economic modeling from Cornell University’s dairy economists suggests a 25% tariff on European butter imports could initially boost domestic butterfat values by 10-15% as competition decreases. However, as export opportunities contract, retaliatory tariffs would likely erase these gains within 3-6 months.

THE POTENTIAL DOMESTIC UPSIDE

Not every potential tariff’s impact would be harmful to American dairy producers. Land O’Lakes, the market-leading domestic butter brand competing directly with Kerrygold, could benefit from reduced premium import competition.

Several Midwest cooperatives with strong domestic butter production are quietly preparing for a potential short-term domestic butter price boost if European premium butter faces tariff barriers. Producers aligned with these processors could see temporary component price improvements before retaliatory measures take effect.

THE BULLVINE BOTTOM LINE: Survive Now, Thrive Later

This looming trade war isn’t just another news item to scroll past – it represents a fundamental reshaping of global dairy markets that will separate the survivors from the casualties. Ornua’s defensive stockpiling strategy tells us everything we need to know about how preeminent players are taking this threat.

“The piece that is always curious about dairy commodities is the last tonne that prices everything and that can be very frustrating… particularly when prices are so volatile.” — Conor Galvin, Ornua CEO.

The farms that recognize the seriousness of potential tariffs and take decisive action now will weather the storm. Those who dismiss it as just more political noise risk becoming collateral damage in a fight they didn’t start.

Remember what Ornua’s CEO said about future production – stockpiling doesn’t help “for the butter we make in 2025, the cows you haven’t milked yet.” That stark reality applies to every dairy operation worldwide. The cows you’re milking today are produced in an increasingly uncertain market environment.

In the dairy business, it’s not the size of your operation that determines survival – it’s your ability to anticipate market shifts and adapt faster than your neighbors. The tariff tsunami isn’t just coming – its first waves are already hitting shore.

5 QUESTIONS TO ASK YOUR PROCESSOR TODAY

What percentage of your production currently goes to export markets?
Do you have contingency plans if tariffs impact your current export channels?
How will your milk pricing formula change if component values shift due to trade disputes?
Are you exploring new product lines that are less vulnerable to import competition?
What financial protections do you offer producers if export markets suddenly close?

Learn More:

TRUMP’S 250% DAIRY TARIFF THREAT: What’s Really at Stake for Your Farm
Breaks down Canada’s tariff system and reveals why US exporters are using less than half their quota access – critical context for understanding trade imbalance claims.
25% Tariffs Ignite $1.2 Billion Dairy Trade Crisis Between U.S. and Canada
Analyzes the immediate market fallout of retaliatory tariffs, including 25% price hikes on key exports and $30 billion in Canadian countermeasures threatening rural economies.
Trump’s Tariffs: Can History Repeat Without Repeating Mistakes?
Compares current strategies to the 2018 trade war’s $28B bailout aftermath, offering hard-won lessons about long-term market access vs short-term disruption risks.

Join the Revolution!

Categories : Dairy Markets, Politics

Tags : dairy tariffs, global dairy markets, Kerrygold butter, Trump trade war

DAIRY FUNDING BACKTRACK: Trump’s IRA Freeze Puts Farm Grants on Ice, Farmers Fight Back in Court

Saturday, March 15th, 2025

USDA freezes billions in energy grants as dairy farms scramble to salvage plans. Contracts are broken, farmers are suing, and your operation could be next.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: In a stunning development that threatens dairy operations nationwide, the Trump administration has frozen billions in agricultural grants funded by the Inflation Reduction Act, prompting five farms and three non-profits to file a federal lawsuit challenging the government’s authority to withhold committed funds. The freeze particularly impacts dairy farms counting on Rural Energy for America Program (REAP) grants to slash their $35,000-$50,000 annual energy costs through solar installations and efficient cooling systems—funds that Secretary Rollins’ recent $20 million release expressly excluded. While the legal battle unfolds in Washington, dairy operators face immediate financial consequences, with small farms potentially losing $15,000-25,000 in promised energy savings and more extensive operations facing competitive disadvantages in global markets. Industry advocates, including the former USDA Under Secretary who warns of likely farmer victory in court, are demanding the administration honor existing contracts while conducting its funding review—a precedent established when the Obama administration lost a similar case in 2013.

KEY TAKEAWAYS:

A federal judge ruled on February 25 that the administration’s blanket funding freeze “exceeded constitutional authority,” yet the USDA continues withholding funds for approximately 6,000 REAP grants under review.
For dairy operations, energy costs represent a significant operational expense—milk cooling alone accounts for 25% of electricity use—making the frozen REAP grants critical to maintaining competitiveness through 40-75% energy savings.
Farmers who win REAP grants but have contracts frozen should immediately document all communications with USDA, consult with legal counsel about joining potential litigation, and connect with their state dairy associations to advocate for funding release.
States like Arkansas, Minnesota, and Missouri could each lose over $400 million in agricultural funding if the freeze continues, with dairy-heavy states like Wisconsin, New York, and California facing disproportionate impacts.
The administration has not provided specific examples of misallocated funds nor explained why previously approved contracts must remain frozen during the review, despite precedent from a 2013 case where farmers successfully sued the government over broken agreements.

USDA REAP grants, dairy farm energy costs, IRA funding freeze, agricultural lawsuit, dairy energy efficiency

Just days ago, a coalition of farmers and non-profit organizations took the gloves off and filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration, directly challenging what they describe as an illegal withholding of Department of Agriculture grants funded by the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). This isn’t some minor bureaucratic spat—it’s a full-blown crisis for thousands of farmers who had USDA commitments in hand, only to watch them vanish overnight.

The USDA has frozen a sweeping range of grants while conducting what they’re calling an “agency-wide spending review”—putting money that Congress already appropriated for conservation and other critical farm programs on hold. A recent University of Illinois-Urbana Champaign study revealed the accurate scale of what’s at stake: farmers will lose $12.5 billion nationwide if lawmakers roll back remaining IRA funding.

Has your operation been affected by the IRA funding freeze? What commitments were you counting on that are now in limbo?

“A deal is a deal. A contract is a contract.” — Robert Bonnie, former USDA Under Secretary of Farm Production and Conservation.

DAIRY FARMS CAUGHT IN THE CROSSFIRE: ENERGY COST NIGHTMARE

While the lawsuit doesn’t specifically name dairy operations among the plaintiffs, make no mistake—the ripple effects through agricultural funding streams hit dairy farmers squarely in the pocketbook. Energy costs represent one of modern dairy farms’ most significant operational expenses, with milk cooling alone accounting for 25% of on-farm electricity use. According to USDA Agricultural Research Service research, vacuum pumps for milking systems consume another 20%, with lighting and ventilation taking another massive bite out of profits.

A 2023 study published in the Journal of Dairy Science found that conventional milk cooling systems are neither cost-effective nor energy-efficient. They rely on bulky piping, mechanical compressors, and refrigerants like Freon and Ammonia, which contribute to global warming. These traditional cooling methods are particularly burdensome for smaller dairy operations, where the high energy demand significantly drains already-thin margins.

DAIRY ENERGY COST BREAKDOWN:

Milk cooling: 25% of electricity costs
Vacuum pumps: 20% of electricity costs
Lighting: 15% of electricity costs
Ventilation: 15% of electricity costs
Other equipment: 25% of electricity costs

According to Penn State Extension, energy costs for a 200-cow dairy farm typically run $35,000-$50,000 annually. The now-frozen REAP grants could dramatically reduce these expenses, which would have funded energy-efficient alternatives like thermoelectric cooling systems that are more economical for small to mid-sized operations.

What alternative energy solutions are you exploring if your REAP funding doesn’t materialize?

THE LAWSUIT: FARMERS FIGHTING BACK AGAINST BROKEN PROMISES

The lawsuit, filed by Earthjustice on behalf of five farms from Maryland, Massachusetts, and Mississippi, along with three non-profit organizations, pulls no punches in calling out what they view as constitutional overreach. Among the plaintiffs is Elisa Lane of Two Boots Farm, who invested thousands of dollars in preliminary work for solar installations based on firm USDA commitments—money now hanging in limbo.

“This is not government efficiency. It is thoughtless waste that inflicts unwarranted financial pain on small farmers and organizations trying to improve their communities.” — Hana Vizcarra, senior attorney at Earthjustice.

“When we signed that contract, we believed the government would honor its word,” Lane said. “Now we’re left wondering if we’ll have to choose between paying for this solar system or feed and supplies.”

WHAT’S REALLY AT STAKE: BEYOND THE LEGAL ARGUMENTS

The legal challenge argues that the Trump administration violates the Constitution’s separation of powers and the Administrative Procedure Act. There’s precedent for farmers winning these battles. Robert Bonnie, the former USDA Under Secretary, points to a 2013 case in which the Obama administration was successfully sued after failing to honor contracts during a government shutdown.

“During the shutdown in 2013, I was part of the Obama administration. At that time, because we had a shutdown, we could not follow through on many contracts during the shutdown period. There was litigation, and we lost,” Bonnie warns.

[IMAGE: Modern milk cooling system with energy efficiency technology – Caption: Energy-efficient cooling systems can reduce electricity costs by up to 40%, a critical advantage for dairy operations facing razor-thin margins]

THE BROADER IMPACT ON DAIRY’S FUTURE: $12.5 BILLION AT RISK

While Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins announced on February 21 that USDA would release $20 million for three specific conservation programs (Environmental Quality Incentive Program, Conservation Stewardship Program, and Agricultural Conservation Easement Program), this represents just a drop in the bucket compared to the $12.5 billion in IRA conservation funds still in limbo.

Secretary Rollins has defended the review, stating that the Biden administration “rushed out hundreds of millions of dollars of IRA funding that was supposed to be distributed over eight years” and that some funding “went to programs that had nothing to do with agriculture.” While ensuring proper fund allocation is essential, the administration has not provided specific examples of misallocated funds nor explained why previously approved contracts must be frozen during the review process.

Critically, this initial funding release did not include the Rural Energy for America Program, which is vital to dairy operations’ energy cost management.

“Everybody wants to do away with waste, fraud, and abuse, but that’s not happening right now. They’re doing away with staff and programs important to rural America.” —Former USDA Under Secretary Robert Bonnie.

States like Arkansas, Minnesota, and Missouri could each lose more than 0 million for IRA programs—funds that would have directly benefited dairy operations through conservation and energy efficiency improvements that boost bottom-line profits.

Should the administration prioritize honoring existing contracts while reviewing future funding? Let us know your thoughts.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR YOUR DAIRY OPERATION: DIRECT IMPACT ASSESSMENT

Farm Size	Potential Impact	Recommended Action
Small Dairy (<100 cows)	$15,000-25,000 in lost REAP savings for energy upgrades; reduced capacity to implement efficiency measures	Document all communications with USDA; connect with local Farm Bureau representatives
Mid-Size Dairy (100-500 cows)	$25,000-75,000 in lost REAP opportunities; delayed solar or equipment upgrades	Join forces with state dairy associations advocating for funding release; explore alternative financing
Large Dairy (500+ cows)	$75,000+ in lost energy efficiency opportunities; significant competitive disadvantage	Consider legal options for signed contracts; implement phased approach to energy improvements

The impact is especially dire for New York’s dairy industry, which ranks fifth in U.S. dairy production, with over 620,000 dairy cows producing more than 15 billion pounds of milk annually. Many of these operations were counting on IRA funds to implement energy-efficient solutions that would help reduce their greenhouse gas emission intensity, currently averaging 0.86 kg CO2eq per kg of fat and protein-corrected milk, according to research published in the Journal of Dairy Science.

THE ROAD AHEAD: 5 ACTION STEPS FOR DAIRY PRODUCERS

While the court battles play out in Washington, dairy producers can’t afford to wait for a resolution. Take these immediate steps:

Document everything: If you’ve received any USDA funding commitments, maintain meticulous records of all communications and expenses
Join forces: Connect with your state dairy association and the American Farm Bureau Federation, which has already stated that “the freezing of funds created uncertainty for farmers.”
Develop Plan B: Identify alternative financing for critical energy efficiency improvements that cannot wait for a government funding resolution.
Push for accountability: Contact your congressional representatives demanding USDA’s funding release schedule oversight.
Prepare for litigation: If you have signed contracts, consult with legal counsel about joining potential class-action lawsuits.

Has the funding freeze impacted your dairy operation? Share your experience in the comments section below.

THE BOTTOM LINE: FARMERS DESERVE BETTER THAN BROKEN PROMISES

The stunning reality is that farmers are being forced to sue their government to make it honor commitments already approved and funded by Congress. This isn’t a partisan issue—it’s about the fundamental reliability of programs that dairy producers have built their business plans around.

“American farmers and ranchers are the backbone of our nation. They feed, fuel, and clothe our nation—and millions of people worldwide.” — Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins.

For dairy operations already battling volatile milk prices, labor shortages, and rising input costs, having the rug pulled out from under vital cost-saving investments doesn’t just mean delayed projects—it means lost competitiveness in global markets where every cent per hundredweight matters.

National Farmers Union President Rob Larew has called on “USDA to fulfill all previously signed contracts quickly”—and dairy producers should accept nothing less. The Bullvine will continue monitoring this developing story, bringing you the latest on how this funding freeze affects dairy operations nationwide and how you can protect your farm’s financial future.

TIMELINE: IRA FUNDING FREEZE

August 2022: Inflation Reduction Act passed, allocating billions for agricultural programs
January 20, 2025: Trump administration issues “Unleashing American Energy” executive order
January 29, 2025: OMB directs all federal agencies to pause the disbursement of IRA funds
February 21, 2025: Agriculture Secretary Rollins announces release of $20 million for three conservation programs
February 25, 2025: Federal judge rules blanket funding freeze “exceeded constitutional authority”
March 11, 2025: Former USDA Under Secretary Bonnie warns of litigation if contracts aren’t honored
March 13, 2025: Farmers and non-profits file lawsuit challenging the continued funding freeze

While politicians and bureaucrats debate funding technicalities, real dairy farmers face real consequences. And neither side of the political aisle should find that acceptable.

LEARN MORE:

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Categories : Politics

Tags : agricultural lawsuit, dairy energy efficiency, dairy farm energy costs, IRA funding freeze, USDA REAP grants

DAIRY TRADE DECEPTION: How the US-Canada USMCA Deal Failed American Farmers

Friday, March 14th, 2025

Politicians claim “historic wins” on Canadian market access, but US milk trucks still can’t cross the border. Here’s where the real dairy money is.

US-Canada dairy trade, USMCA dairy provisions, dairy export markets, tariff-rate quotas, supply management system

While politicians on both sides of the border are busy patting themselves on the back over dairy ‘victories,’ America’s dairy farmers are left asking: Where’s the milk money? The much-hyped USMCA was supposed to crack open Canada’s dairy fortress, but two years and multiple ‘wins’ later, US producers still can’t get their products onto Canadian shelves.

Here’s what Washington and Ottawa don’t want you to know about this milky mess.

THE $300 MILLION QUESTION: HOW CANADA KEEPS AMERICAN DAIRY OUT

Despite multiple “victories” claimed by U.S. trade officials, the fundamental reality remains unchanged for American dairy exporters looking north—Canada’s market remains impenetrable mainly. The saga began in earnest in January 2022, when United States Trade Representative Katherine Tai announced a “historic win” for American dairy.

“Enforcing our trade agreements and ensuring they benefit American workers and farmers is a top priority for the Biden-Harris Administration. This historic win will help eliminate unjustified trade restrictions on American dairy products and ensure that the U.S. dairy industry and its workers benefit from the USMCA to market and sell U.S. products to Canadian consumers.”
— Katherine Tai, U.S. Trade Representative.

The reality? Think of Canada’s quota system like a two-tier nightclub: There’s a VIP section with no cover charge (the tariff-free quota), but once that fills up, you’re paying a 300% markup at the door (the prohibitive tariffs). The kicker? Canada ensured their buddies (domestic processors) got most of the VIP wristbands, leaving American dairy producers outside in the cold.

The USMCA rules gave Canada 45 days from the final report date to comply with the findings. In response, Canada removed its “allocation holder pools” under all TRQs and included “distributors” as eligible applicants under the industrial cheeses tariff-rate quota.

This cosmetic change didn’t solve the fundamental problem. By 2023, the US launched a second dispute challenging Canada’s market share-based allocation system, which still favored processors over retailers and food service operators. In November 2023, an independent panel rejected US concerns, with two of three panelists determining that Canada’s updated TRQ measures satisfied its USMCA obligations.

CANADA’S SIDE: WHY THEY FIGHT TO PROTECT SUPPLY MANAGEMENT

Canadian dairy farmers defend their supply management system as essential for national food security and stability. According to Dairy Farmers of Canada, the system “helps prevent wild fluctuations in the farm-gate price of milk and enhance Canada’s food sovereignty and stability.” Their primary argument? Rather than relying on foreign countries for dairy needs, Canada can maintain control over its food supply through domestic production.

“Overreliance on dairy imports puts ownership of our food supply in the hands of foreign suppliers and governments. That means we are more vulnerable to global issues beyond our control, like economic boom-and-bust, natural disasters, and government conflicts.”
Dairy Farmers of Canada.

Quebec farmer Markus Schnegg emphasized this point, noting that “nearly all the dairy produced in Canada is sold for domestic consumption,” meaning U.S. tariffs would only affect a small fraction of the market. He’s less worried about tariffs than about the U.S. president targeting Canada’s supply management system ahead of USMCA renegotiations.

Canadian farmers also point to health regulations as a key factor. As one Canadian official noted, “Canada imposes tariffs on U.S. dairy products due to concerns about compliance with health regulations, particularly regarding the use of growth hormones and antibiotics.” All Canadian milk is produced without the artificial growth hormones commonly used in U.S. dairy production.

SHOCKING NUMBERS: THE QUOTA SYSTEM FARMERS NEED TO UNDERSTAND

For dairy farmers reading this while waiting for milk pickup at 5 AM – here’s the bottom line: Don’t hold your breath for Canadian market access to save your bottom line. The politicians claiming victories haven’t delivered actual dollars in your pocket, and the dairy organizations celebrating ‘wins’ are measuring success by legal technicalities, not by more trucks crossing the border.

The mechanism preventing American dairy from reaching Canadian consumers is deliberately complex. Under the USMCA, Canada maintains 14 TRQs on various dairy products, including milk, cream, skim milk powder, butter, cheeses, and more.

The smoking gun? From January through October 2021, the United States exported just $478 million of dairy products to Canada. While this increased to over billion in 2022 (making Canada the second-largest market for US dairy exports), American producers still couldn’t fill any Canadian dairy quotas granted in the USMCA.

Table 1: USMCA Dairy TRQ Fill Rates (2022-2023)

USMCA Dairy Category	Fill Rate (2022-2023)	Status
Milk	Below 50%	UNDERUTILIZED
Cream	Below 50%	UNDERUTILIZED
Skim Milk Powder	Below 50%	UNDERUTILIZED
Butter and Cream Powder	Below 50%	UNDERUTILIZED
Cheeses of All Types	Part of 9 TRQs below 50%	UNDERUTILIZED
Overall Average	42%	UNDERUTILIZED

The average tariff fill rate was only 42% across all 2022/2023 quotas, with 9 of the 14 TRQs falling below half the negotiated value for the same period. Why such dismal numbers? After Canada’s “compliance” with the first ruling, they implemented new rules that resulted in even higher quantities of quota being allocated directly to Canadian processors.

University of Guelph food economist Michael von Massow points out an essential fact that politicians rarely mention: “Canada imports far more dairy from the U.S. than it exports,” suggesting an escalating dairy tariff war would hurt American farmers more than Canadian ones. Before the trade tensions, U.S. dairy that Canada imported wasn’t tariffed because it was less than the limit agreed upon in the USMCA.

PRICE DISPARITIES: THE FARM-GATE REALITY

While politicians battle over market access, the raw economics of milk production reveals why these two systems clash so fundamentally. According to recent data, Canadian producers will receive approximately $0.99 per liter (farmgate price) in 2025 after a slight 0.0237% decrease, while American dairy farmers face a projected all-milk price of $22.55 per hundredweight—equivalent to roughly $1.94 per liter.

This stark differential—US farmers receiving nearly double what their Canadian counterparts get—illuminates why Canada’s supply management system remains so fiercely protected. Canadian farmers trade higher volume potential for price stability, while US producers bear greater market risk for potentially higher rewards. As University of Guelph food economist Michael von Massow observed, these systemic differences mean “a change in price paid to farmers for their milk does not necessarily translate to a similar retail price change” in either country.

Table 4: US-Canada Farm-Gate Milk Price Comparison (2023-2025)

Year	Canadian Price ($/liter)	Canadian Adjustment	US Price ($/cwt)	US Price ($/liter equivalent)
2023	$1.00	+1.5%	$20.10 (Jan) to $25.50 (Sept)	$1.73-$2.19
2024	$1.01	+1.0%	$22.65 (avg)	$1.95
2025	$0.99 (projected)	-0.0237%	$22.55 (projected)	$1.94

This fundamental price gap explains why opening Canada’s dairy market remains such a contentious issue—it’s not just about selling more US dairy products; it’s about two entirely different economic systems colliding.

CURRENT MARKET REALITY: WHERE US DAIRY IS WINNING IN 2025

While Canada continues frustrating access attempts, US dairy exports have found significant success elsewhere. According to the US Dairy Export Council, in January 2025, US dairy exports increased by 0.4% in volume compared to the previous year, with export value soaring 20% to a January record of $714 million.

The star performer? Cheese exports jumped 22% to 46,680 metric tons—marking the seventh consecutive monthly record. Unlike the frustrating Canadian situation, US cheese is finding enthusiastic buyers worldwide, with impressive growth in Japan (59%), South Korea (34%), and Southeast Asia (67%).

This global success raises the question: Why continue fighting for minimal Canadian access when other markets are throwing open their doors? Innovative producers are pivoting to these growth markets rather than waiting for political solutions to the Canadian impasse.

POLITICAL THEATER: THE HIGH-STAKES GAME WHERE FARMERS LOSE

While American politicians cry foul and Canadian officials insist they’re playing by the rules, dairy farmers on both sides of the border are mere pawns in a much larger political chess match. The evidence is in the timeline of events and the persistent failure to achieve meaningful market access.

Table 2: USMCA Dairy Dispute Timeline

Date	Event	Outcome	Impact on US Dairy Access
May 2021	US files first USMCA dispute	Challenged 85-100% processor reservation	No market impact during dispute
December 2021	Panel issues final report	Canada given 45 days to comply	No immediate change
January 2022	US announces “historic win”	Canada ordered to revise TRQ system	No measurable export increase
2022	Canada revises TRQ measures	Removed “allocation holder pools”	Higher processor allocation
2022	US launches second dispute	Challenged market share-based system	No market impact during dispute
November 2023	Panel rejects US claims	2-1 decision favoring Canada	Status quo maintained
March 4, 2025	Trump imposes new tariffs	25% tariffs on Canadian imports	Canada announces retaliatory measures
March 6, 2025	Trump announces exemption	Temporary pause until April 2	Continued uncertainty
March 7, 2025	Trump threatens dairy tariffs	Suggests possible 250% tariff	Further escalation possible

“The panel’s decision leaves a status quo of Canadian dairy restrictions that is simply unacceptable. American farmers deserve a level playing field, and Canada must uphold both the spirit and the letter of its obligations under USMCA.”
— Jason Smith, House Committee on Ways and Means Chairman

The bipartisan frustration is palpable. House Agriculture Committee Chairman GT Thompson and Ranking Member David Scott called it “critical the U.S. encourage and enforce USMCA,” noting that “this decision allows Canada to continue their questionable protectionist practices.”

“It is unacceptable that the current Canadian dairy restrictions harming U.S. farmers are allowed to continue. Our dairy farmers in Upstate New York and the North Country work hard to provide delicious and nutritious products for our communities. They deserve the market access they were promised under USMCA. This USMCA dispute panel’s decision allows the status quo to continue. This is untenable.” — Congresswoman Elise Stefanik.

The situation has become even more volatile with President Trump’s March 4, 2025, announcement of 25% tariffs on imports from Canada, followed by a temporary exemption until April 2. Canada’s response was swift and forceful. Canadian Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc announced: “Today, I am announcing that the government of Canada, following a dollar-for-dollar approach, will be imposing, as of 12:01 a.m. tomorrow, March 13, 2025, 25% reciprocal tariffs on an additional $29.8 billion of imports from the United States.”

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was equally direct, declaring that “Canada will continue to be in a trade war with the United States for the foreseeable future,” adding that “our tariffs will stay in effect until the U.S. eliminates theirs, and not a second earlier.”

Most recently, a bipartisan group of U.S. Senators, including Tammy Baldwin (D-WI), Roger Marshall (R-KS), and Joni Ernst (R-IA), sent a letter to Trump administration officials urging them to address what they called Canada’s evasion of USMCA guidelines. “Historically, Canada has failed to live up to its commitments to provide access to its market; this remains the case even with new provisions in USMCA,” the senators wrote.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR YOUR FARM: PRACTICAL TAKEAWAYS

If you’re milking cows rather than making policy, here’s what you need to know:

Canadian market access will remain limited regardless of political “wins.” The TRQ system is designed to appear compliant while maintaining barriers.
Focus on markets showing actual growth. Unlike Canada, export markets like Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia have demonstrated a substantial appetite for US dairy products, particularly cheese.
Diversification is your best protection. Farms too dependent on any single market (domestic or export) are vulnerable to political whims and trade disputes.
Watch the April 2 tariff deadline. If temporary extensions expire, expect significant market disruption across the North American dairy trade.
Value-added production offers better margins than commodity focus. Specialty cheese producers find eager markets worldwide, while commodity milk faces tighter margins.

THE HARD TRUTH: WHY WAITING FOR POLITICIANS TO FIX THIS IS COSTING US DAIRY FARMERS MONEY

“I am very disappointed by the findings in the USMCA panel report released today on Canada’s dairy TRQ allocation measures. Despite the conclusions of this report, the United States continues to have serious concerns about how Canada is implementing the dairy market access commitments it made in the Agreement.”
— Ambassador Katherine Tai, November 2023

The answer is disappointing for dairy farmers who are wondering when they’ll see actual benefits from these trade disputes. The fundamental barriers remain after multiple “victories,” formal panel rulings, and policy revisions.

Table 3: Rhetoric vs. Reality in US-Canada Dairy Trade

Metric	Political Claim	Verified Reality
US Dairy Exports to Canada (2022)	“Historic market access”	$1 billion, but quotas unfilled
USMCA TRQ Fill Rate (2022/23)	“Eliminated barriers”	42% average utilization
Impact of First USMCA “Win”	“Important victory”	Canada changed rules to favor processors even more
Result of Second Challenge	“Enforcing commitments”	Panel ruled 2-1 in Canada’s favor
March 2025 Tariff Situation	“Protecting American interests”	Created new uncertainty for all export markets

United States Trade Representative Katherine Tai, who announced the “historic win” in 2022, has yet to deliver the promised benefits to American dairy farmers. Meanwhile, Canada’s protective system remains largely intact despite all the political theater.

“The United States won the first USMCA case on Canada’s dairy TRQ allocation system to secure fair market access for U.S. dairy farmers, workers, processors, and exporters… We will continue to voice deep concerns about Canada’s system. We remain focused on securing the market access we believe Canada committed to under the USMCA, and we will continue exploring all avenues available to achieve that goal.”
— Tom Vilsack, U.S. Secretary of Agriculture.

THE BULLVINE BOTTOM LINE: STOP WAITING FOR POLITICAL SOLUTIONS

Stop waiting for politicians to fix this. The harsh reality is that Canada’s dairy market will remain primarily closed regardless of how many press releases claim otherwise. Innovative producers should focus on domestic innovation and emerging markets beyond our northern neighbor.

The actual trade opportunity isn’t in fighting over scraps of Canadian quota – it’s in demanding our trade representatives pursue aggressive new agreements in regions hungry for American dairy excellence. The January 2025 export data makes this case convincingly:

Japan: Cheese exports up 59%, with firm WPC80+ purchases (2,009 metric tons)
South Korea: Cheese exports increased by 34%
Southeast Asia: Cheese shipments jumped 67%
Middle East/North Africa: Significant growth, particularly in Bahrain
Central America & Caribbean: Continued strong demand across product categories

Producers seeking export assistance can access resources through the U.S. Dairy Export Council’s Export Assistance Program, which offers market information, technical support, and regulatory guidance for entering these promising markets. The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service also provides export credit guarantees and market development programs specifically designed for dairy exporters targeting Asian markets.

The next time a politician brags about ‘dairy victories,’ ask them a simple question: How many more truckloads of American dairy products are crossing the Canadian border? The silence will be deafening.

Key Takeaways

Follow the Numbers, Not the Rhetoric: Despite political claims of “historic wins,” US dairy producers haven’t filled even half of the negotiated Canadian quotas, revealing the gap between trade announcements and on-farm reality.
The Canadian Fortress Stands: Canada’s TRQ system is deliberately designed to appear compliant with USMCA while maintaining impenetrable barriers by allocating most quotas to processors with no incentive to import competing products.
Growth Markets Are Elsewhere: While politicians fight over Canadian access, US cheese exports are setting monthly records with explosive growth in Japan (59%), South Korea (34%), and Southeast Asia (67%)—markets eager for American dairy.
Value-Added Over Commodity Focus: Farms that have pivoted to specialty products for specific export markets are seeing better margins and less vulnerability to political trade disputes.
Resources Exist for Market Diversification: The U.S. Dairy Export Council and USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service offer targeted assistance for producers seeking to enter promising Asian and Middle Eastern markets.

Executive Summary

The much-celebrated USMCA dairy provisions have failed to deliver meaningful Canadian market access for American producers, with average tariff quota fill rates stuck at a dismal 42%. Despite years of “victories” in trade disputes, Canada’s system still effectively blocks US dairy while technically complying with trade rules. Meanwhile, genuine growth opportunities are booming elsewhere—with cheese exports to Japan up 59%, South Korea up 34%, and Southeast Asia up 67%. The recent escalation of tariff threats between the US and Canada only heightens uncertainty for dairy producers caught in political crossfire, making market diversification more crucial than ever for American dairy operations seeking sustainable export growth.

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Categories : Politics

Tags : dairy export markets, tariff-rate quotas, US-Canada dairy trade, USMCA dairy provisions

Trade War Escalates: EU Announces $28 Billion In Tariffs Hitting US Dairy

Thursday, March 13th, 2025

EU slaps $28B in tariffs on US goods, including dairy. But is this trade war a blessing in disguise for American dairy farmers? The answer may surprise you.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The EU’s announcement of $28 billion in counter tariffs on US goods, including dairy products, adds another layer of complexity to an already turbulent global trade landscape for American dairy producers. While these tariffs threaten established trade flows, USDA data shows US dairy exports remain strong, with projections reaching $8.5 billion for fiscal 2025. The article reveals a nuanced picture of US-Canada dairy trade, highlighting underutilized quotas and complex market access issues. Despite challenges, some industry leaders see the current trade tensions as an opportunity to address longstanding imbalances, particularly with the EU. The piece offers practical strategies for dairy producers to navigate this volatile environment, emphasizing the importance of understanding regional impacts, implementing layered risk management, and maintaining production flexibility.

KEY TAKEAWAYS:

EU announces $28B in counter tariffs on US goods, including dairy, amid ongoing global trade tensions
USDA projects strong US dairy exports for 2025 despite trade challenges, forecasting $8.5 billion
US dairy exporters currently utilize only 42% of their available tariff-free quota to Canada, revealing complex market access issues beyond headline tariff rates
Industry experts recommend tailored risk management strategies and production flexibility to navigate trade volatility
Some US dairy leaders view trade tensions as an opportunity to address longstanding market access imbalances, particularly with the EU

dairy tariffs, US dairy exports, trade tensions, global dairy market, dairy industry challenges

The European Union has announced sweeping counter-tariffs targeting $28 billion worth of American goods, including dairy products. This latest development adds to mounting trade pressures facing US dairy producers, who are already navigating trade tensions with Canada and China. With multiple trading partners implementing restrictions simultaneously, US dairy exports face unprecedented challenges in global markets.

DAIRY INDUSTRY CAUGHT IN CROSSFIRE OF GLOBAL TRADE TENSIONS

The global dairy trade landscape is experiencing unprecedented turbulence as the European Union becomes the latest trading partner to announce retaliatory measures against the United States. This EU announcement creates a complex trade environment where multiple major US dairy export markets implement trade barriers simultaneously.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced the EU will impose tariffs on 26 billion euros ($28 billion) worth of US goods – with dairy products specifically named alongside soybeans, almonds, distilled spirits, and other items.

“We deeply regret this measure. Tariffs are taxes. They are bad for business, and even worse for consumers,” von der Leyen stated during the announcement. “These tariffs are disrupting supply chains. They bring uncertainty to the economy. Jobs are at stake. Prices will go up. In Europe and the United States.”

The timing couldn’t be more challenging for American dairy producers, who shipped $8.02 billion in dairy exports globally in fiscal 2024 and are projected to reach $8.5 billion in fiscal 2025, according to USDA data released in February 2025. This projection was raised by $100 million from earlier forecasts “on increased price competitiveness for US exports of cheese and butter, with robust demand for those products in North America, South America, and the Middle East/North Africa.”

US-CANADA DAIRY RELATIONSHIP: A COMPLEX REALITY

While much political rhetoric has focused on Canadian dairy barriers, official data reveals a more nuanced picture. According to the International Dairy Foods Association, the US exported more than $1 billion of dairy products to Canada in 2022, making it the second-largest market for US dairy exports.

However, US dairy exporters face a complex system of Tariff Rate Quotas (TRQs) when selling to Canada. Under the USMCA agreement negotiated during the Trump administration, Canada agreed to eliminate tariffs on specific quantities of US dairy imports across 14 categories. However, official data shows that US exporters utilize only 42% of their available tariff-free quotas, with 9 of the 14 TRQs falling below half the negotiated value.

This limited utilization suggests the primary challenges for US dairy exports to Canada may lie beyond the headline-grabbing 200%+ tariff rates, which only apply after these quota limits are reached. As Becky Randall, senior vice president of trade and workforce policy at the International Dairy Foods Association, explained: “We don’t love the tariffs, but the main issue is that we can never fill the quota, to begin with,” due to what she describes as Canada’s administrative strategies that limit US market access.

EU-US DAIRY TRADE IMBALANCE

Direction	Annual Value (USD)
EU to US	$3 billion
US to EU	$115 million

The table above illustrates the significant trade imbalance in dairy products between the European Union and the United States, which has persisted despite the US generating billions in global dairy exports. This disparity helps explain why some US dairy officials see the current trade tensions as an opportunity to address longstanding market access issues.

PRACTICAL STRATEGIES FOR DAIRY PRODUCERS AMID TRADE TURMOIL

For American dairy producers navigating this volatile trade environment, University of Wisconsin dairy economists have been modeling impacts and identifying practical approaches:

First, assess your operation’s specific exposure to export markets. With nearly one-fifth of US dairy components exported (mostly nonfat solids), understanding how your milk utilization might be affected by shifting trade flows is critical. Operations selling to processors heavily involved in export markets face risks different from those supplying primarily domestic channels.

Second, implement a layered risk management approach. Leonard Polzin from the University of Wisconsin suggests dairy producers consider the combined impacts of changing trade conditions, labor costs, and domestic consumption patterns. Their economic models show program cuts to nutrition programs like SNAP could reduce domestic dairy demand by approximately 4%, creating additional pressure beyond export challenges.

Third, analyze regional production economics carefully. Dr. Charles Nicholson’s modeling at the University of Wisconsin has identified significant differences in how trade disruptions affect different dairy production regions, with some areas maintaining more substantial margins despite trade challenges.

Fourth, maintain flexibility in production planning. USDA projects increased US dairy exports for 2025 despite trade challenges, and the fundamental global demand for dairy remains strong. Producers who can navigate the near-term market volatility while maintaining production capacity will be positioned to benefit when trade conditions normalize.

THE PATH FORWARD: NAVIGATING DAIRY’S NEW NORMAL

For forward-thinking dairy producers, this period of trade disruption demands both defensive positioning and strategic vision. Jim Mulhern, former president of the National Milk Producers Federation, emphasized the importance of enforcing trade agreements: “We must utilize USMCA’s enforcement mechanisms to bring home its hard-fought wins for America’s dairy farmers.”

According to the International Trade Commission, proper implementation of USMCA provisions could increase US dairy exports by more than $314 million annually – but realizing this potential requires vigilant enforcement of market access provisions.

As this situation unfolds, The Bullvine will continue monitoring developments and providing actionable intelligence for dairy producers navigating these turbulent trade waters. The dairy industry has weathered numerous challenges throughout its history – from regulatory changes to shifting consumer preferences – and has consistently emerged stronger through adaptation and innovation. This trade confrontation represents another challenge to test the industry’s resilience and creativity.

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Categories : Politics

Tags : dairy industry challenges, dairy tariffs, Global Dairy Market, trade tensions, US dairy exports

USMCA Unleashes U.S. Dairy Exports to Canada: Hard Data Reveals Trade Deal Success Amid Tariff Tensions

Thursday, March 13th, 2025

U.S. dairy exports to Canada explode 34% under USMCA! But with 25% Trump tariffs looming, is this boom about to bust? Billions at stake.

Executive Summary

The USMCA has turbocharged U.S. dairy exports to Canada by a verified 34% since 2020, adding $519 million in sales that wouldn’t have existed otherwise according to groundbreaking Texas Tech University research. Despite this success, American producers are capturing only 42% of their negotiated quota access due to Canada’s sophisticated market protection strategies, including allocation systems that favor processors and prohibitive over-quota tariffs reaching nearly 300%. With Trump’s 25% tariff threat set to take effect April 2, 2025, and the critical USMCA review approaching in 2026, dairy producers face both unprecedented opportunity and mounting uncertainty in this $1.14 billion export market. Smart producers are already positioning themselves for the next phase of this high-stakes trade battle that will determine who captures billions in future dairy sales.

Key Takeaways

Hard Numbers: U.S. dairy exports to Canada have nearly doubled since 2015, reaching $1.14 billion in 2024 – but still fall short of the 43.8% growth projected when USMCA was signed
Market Protection: Canada maintains punishing over-quota tariffs (241% for milk, 298.5% for butter) while technically complying with USMCA through allocation strategies that limit true market access
Dispute Outcomes: The USMCA dispute mechanism delivered a win for U.S. dairy in January 2022 but sided with Canada in November 2023, showing the limitations of trade enforcement tools
Tariff Countdown: Trump’s April 2nd tariff deadline creates urgent strategic decisions for producers on both sides of the border, potentially transforming North American dairy trade
Action Plan: Forward-thinking producers are already preparing for the 2026 USMCA review by diversifying their export mix between the complementary Canadian and Mexican markets while capitalizing on current quota opportunities

USMCA dairy exports, Canada-US trade dispute, tariff-rate quotas, dairy market access, Trump tariffs

A groundbreaking February 2025 Texas Tech University study has finally quantified what dairy industry insiders have been witnessing on the ground: U.S. dairy exports to Canada have surged by a massive 34% since USMCA implementation – adding a whopping $519 million in cumulative exports that wouldn’t have occurred without the deal. As tariff tensions escalate and the 2026 USMCA review approaches, savvy producers on both sides of the border are racing to adapt to this rapidly evolving market reality that’s permanently reshaping North American dairy trade dynamics.

The Hard Numbers Reveal USMCA’s True Impact

Let’s cut straight to what matters – the cold, hard cash flowing to American dairy producers. The Texas Tech University study employed sophisticated Bayesian statistical modeling to isolate USMCA’s specific impact, establishing with near-absolute certainty (99.97% posterior probability) that the agreement directly caused the export surge. This isn’t correlation – it’s proven causation backed by rigorous economic analysis.

In dollars and cents, U.S. dairy shipments to Canada climbed from $508 million in 2020 to approximately $799 million by 2023, reaching an impressive $1.14 billion in 2024 – nearly doubling over the past decade according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The International Dairy Foods Association confirms Canada represents the second-largest market for U.S. dairy exports, having steadily increased from approximately $625.5 million in 2015 to $1.1 billion in 2024.

Here’s the critical insight dairy producers need to understand: these impressive gains still fall significantly short of what should be happening. The original U.S. International Trade Commission projections called for a 43.8% increase in exports, yet we’re hitting only 34%. The reason reveals the high-stakes trade policy chess match playing out between North American agricultural powers.

Canada’s Sophisticated Market Protection Strategy

For decades, Canada’s fortress-like dairy protection system stood virtually impenetrable – even NAFTA couldn’t crack it. USMCA finally blew holes in those walls, but the implementation strategy has minimized disruption to their domestic producers.

A February 2025 Cornell University study published in Food Policy confirms the mechanics: USMCA created tariff-rate quotas (TRQs) for fourteen specific dairy product categories including milk, cream, skim milk powder, butter and cream powder, industrial cheeses, cheeses of all types, milk powders, concentrated milk, yogurt, buttermilk, whey powder, milk constituents, ice cream, and other dairy. These quotas allow specified amounts to enter Canada duty-free or at reduced rates.

What many don’t realize – and what President Trump doesn’t mention in his tariff announcements – is that these steep tariffs only activate after the U.S. has reached its negotiated limit on tariff-free dairy exports to Canada. According to the International Dairy Foods Association, “the U.S. has never gotten close to exceeding our USMCA quotas because Canada has erected various protectionist measures that fly in the face of their trade obligations.”

These punishing over-quota tariffs have remained unchanged throughout both the Trump and Biden administrations. They effectively cap market access to the negotiated quota amounts, preventing ambitious U.S. suppliers from capturing additional market share beyond these thresholds.

The Canadian Perspective: Supply Management Under Pressure

For Canadian dairy farmers the USMCA represents a significant challenge to their traditional supply management system. Under USMCA, Canada agreed to allow U.S. dairy farmers access to about 3.5% of its $17 billion domestic market – a financially significant concession for Canadian producers.

Canada has maintained its dairy supply management system for approximately 70 years, securing high milk prices for its farmers through a combination of production quotas and import restrictions. This system has shown remarkable resilience against trade liberalization pressures, with only modest concessions in recent free trade agreements.

Canadian Trade Minister Mary Ng has strongly contested recent U.S. tariff threats, stating that Trump’s claim of Canada “taking advantage” of the U.S. is “false” and that reciprocal tariffs on dairy are “entirely unwarranted.” For Canadian producers, the gradual opening of their market represents a significant economic challenge that threatens their long-standing price stability.

The Two-Market Strategy Smart Producers Are Implementing

While the Canadian market represents a significant growth opportunity, Mexico remains the cornerstone of U.S. dairy export strategy. According to Cornell University research, a full 43% of U.S. dairy exports by value go to these two North American neighbors, with distinct product preferences in each market.

The USMCA dispute settlement mechanism has proven both effective and limited in addressing compliance issues. A Cornell University study published in February 2025 found that “the USMCA dispute settlement mechanism worked effectively and efficiently to resolve trade disputes.” This was demonstrated by the January 2022 ruling that found Canada had improperly restricted market access for U.S. dairy products, forcing changes to the quota allocation system.

However, a November 2023 panel sided with Canada, ruling that the country’s revised system was compliant with USMCA obligations. This mixed record illustrates the ongoing tension between market access commitments and implementation realities.

Trump’s Tariff Strategy: April 2nd Deadline Looms

The dairy export picture has become even more complex with President Trump’s recent tariff threats. In early March 2025, Trump stated: “Canada has been taking advantage of us for years regarding lumber and dairy products,” directly referencing Canada’s approximately 250% tariff on U.S. dairy exports and threatening to impose equivalent tariffs in response.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has confirmed that “the president’s measures regarding Canadian dairy would be implemented on April 2,” coinciding with the announcement of reciprocal tariffs globally. This gives producers mere weeks to prepare for a potentially significant market disruption.

The International Dairy Foods Association has responded cautiously to these developments, stating: “U.S. dairy appreciates the Trump Administration’s efforts to hold Canada accountable on these protectionist measures. At the same time, a prolonged tariff war with our top trading partners will continue to create uncertainty and additional costs for American dairy farmers, processors, and our rural communities.”

Wisconsin Senator Tammy Baldwin has been particularly vocal following the November 2023 dispute panel ruling that favored Canada, stating: “Farmers in Wisconsin work diligently every day to deliver top-quality products to market, and they deserve a fair competitive landscape against their international rivals. This ruling contradicts the agreement our nation made with Canada and disadvantages our Wisconsin-made dairy products.”

What Smart Dairy Producers Are Doing Right Now

Forward-thinking producers aren’t waiting for perfect market conditions – they’re positioning themselves now for the 2026 USMCA review that could potentially transform market access rules. According to the National Milk Producers Federation, this upcoming review represents a once-in-six-years opportunity to address implementation issues and potentially secure additional market access.

With exports now accounting for approximately 16% of all U.S. milk production, international market access isn’t optional – it’s fundamental to the industry’s future. Edge Dairy Farmer Cooperative, one of the largest dairy co-ops in the country, has emphasized that “international trade is key to economic growth and stability for our dairy farmers and processors. That’s why additional market access into Canada is an important part of USMCA.”

Bottom Line: Verified Growth with Untapped Potential

The USMCA has definitively boosted U.S. dairy exports to Canada by 34% according to rigorous statistical analysis. Yet this impressive growth falls short of the 43.8% increase initially projected, due primarily to Canada’s implementation approach.

The upcoming months will be critical as tariff tensions play out and the industry positions itself for the 2026 USMCA review. Smart producers are focusing on these verified facts:

U.S. dairy exports to Canada have grown to $1.14 billion in 2024, nearly doubling over the past decade according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data.
Canada’s prohibitive tariffs of 241% for milk, 298.5% for butter, and 245.5% for cheese only apply after quota limits are reached – but according to the International Dairy Foods Association, “the U.S. has never gotten close to exceeding our USMCA quotas because Canada has erected various protectionist measures.”
Cornell University research published in Food Policy confirms that the USMCA dispute settlement mechanism has successfully resolved some trade disputes, but November 2023 rulings show the limitations of this approach.
New tariff measures targeting Canadian dairy are scheduled to take effect on April 2, 2025, potentially disrupting established trade patterns.

Producers who understand these dynamics and position themselves strategically will capture disproportionate market share, while those who wait for perfect clarity risk being left behind. The data makes one thing crystal clear: when market access barriers fall, even partially, U.S. dairy exports grow substantially – creating real opportunities for producers ready to seize them.

Learn more:

Trump’s 250% Dairy Tariff Threat: What’s Really at Stake for Your Farm
Reveals why U.S. exporters use only 42% of Canadian dairy quotas despite $463M trade surplus – and how April 2 tariffs could backfire.
How U.S. Farmers Could Benefit from Canada’s Trade Barriers
Examines Canada’s quota loopholes and Trump’s aggressive tariff strategy to unlock $1.14B in unrealized export potential.
Trump’s Tariff Strategy: Protecting $8.2B in Dairy Exports
Analyzes the high-stakes balancing act between securing fair trade and maintaining record-breaking exports to Mexico and Canada.

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Categories : Politics

Tags : Canada-US trade dispute, dairy market access, tariff-rate quotas, USMCA dairy exports

Carney Takes Power: What His Agriculture Policies Mean for Canadian Dairy Farmers’ Bottom Line

Tuesday, March 11th, 2025

Carney axes carbon tax—but will Trump’s tariffs sour dairy profits? The $12k question every Canadian farmer needs to answer.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: New Prime Minister Mark Carney’s elimination of Canada’s consumer carbon tax could save dairy farms up to $12,000 annually on heating costs, but escalating U.S. tariffs threaten equipment prices and supply chains. Despite Trump’s claims of unfair trade, U.S. dairy exports to Canada ($1.14B) already triple Canadian exports south, per 2024 USDA data. Carney’s financial expertise may yield practical support like low-interest loans for energy upgrades, but farmers must act now: mapping U.S. dependencies, accelerating efficiency projects, and joining producer coalitions are critical to weathering political and trade uncertainty.

KEY TAKEAWAYS:

$12K Savings: Scrapping carbon tax cuts propane/natural gas costs for avg 120-cow farms
Trade Reality: U.S. dairy exports to Canada outpace Canadian exports 3:1 ($1.14B vs. $330M)
Tariff Risk: 62% of farms use U.S.-made equipment vulnerable to 18-25% price hikes
Act Now: Map supply chains, fast-track energy upgrades, join buying groups
Watch Closely: Will Carney’s banking background deliver farm-friendly loans/export programs?

Canadian dairy tariffs, Mark Carney carbon tax, USMCA trade agreement, agricultural trade war 2025, supply management system

Did you see what happened to Canadian dairy policy this weekend? Mark Carney stormed into the Prime Minister’s office with a whopping 85% of the Liberal Party behind him! And let me tell you, his promise to “immediately eliminate the divisive consumer carbon tax on families and farmers” caught my attention faster than a fresh hay delivery at feeding time.

I’ve been following this political drama closely, and I wonder if Carney’s banking background is good news for those operating under Canada’s supply management system. Will his economic know-how finally relieve those crushing input costs we’ve all struggled with? Or is this another politician making promises he’ll conveniently forget after election day?

Carney’s Carbon Tax Flip: The $12,000 Question for Your Dairy Operation

I’ve gotta admit, I was shocked when Carney announced he’s scrapping the consumer carbon tax. This is the same guy who’s been preaching carbon pricing for years! During his victory speech, he came right out and said, “When I see something’s not working, I will change it.” That’s refreshingly direct for a politician.

If you’re like me, you’ve been gritting your teeth every time you pay those carbon taxes on natural gas and propane. According to the latest Dairy Farmers of Canada analysis, Ontario’s average 120-cow dairy operation has been paying approximately $12,000 annually in carbon taxes on heating fuels alone. Sure, we got those partial exemptions on gas and diesel for our tractors, but what about heating our barns through those brutal Canadian winters? My heating bill last February nearly gave me a heart attack!

And don’t even get me started on the competitive disadvantage created by Canadian carbon tax policies. Just last month, I was chatting with a dairy farmer friend across the border in Minnesota. The difference in our operating costs from the carbon tax alone is enough to make you want to move your entire operation south!

Trump Trade War: Carney’s Not Backing Down on Tariff Defense

What surprised me about Carney was how quickly he came out swinging against Trump’s tariff threats in the escalating Canada-US trade dispute. He said, “We didn’t ask for this fight, but Canadians are always ready when someone drops the gloves. So, the Americans should make no mistake, in trade, as in hockey, Canada will win.”

Those are fighting words! But honestly, I’m worried about what this means for my operation. I just ordered replacement parlor equipment from Wisconsin, and God knows what that will cost me now with these retaliatory tariffs flying back and forth.

Take a look at these verified trade numbers that showcase what’s happening in the dairy relationship between our countries:

Trade Direction	Value (2024)
U.S. dairy exports to Canada	$1.14 billion
Canadian dairy & egg exports to U.S.	$330.94 million
U.S. trade advantage	~$809 million

Sources: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, Statista 2024

Despite Trump claiming Canada’s dairy system is “unfair,” American producers already enjoy a massive trade surplus with us! Carney promised to keep Canada’s tariffs in place until the Americans removed theirs. Smart strategy or stubborn standoff? I don’t know, but my equipment costs will take a hit either way.

Have you lately considered where your farm supplies come from? It might be worth mapping out which of your inputs cross the border. I spent yesterday afternoon making a list; boy, was it longer than I expected!

Can a Banker Understand Canadian Dairy Farmers?

Here’s where Carney might surprise us. Unlike Trudeau, who couldn’t tell a Holstein from a Hereford if his life depended on it, Carney at least understands financial markets and international trade. The guy ran both the Bank of Canada AND the Bank of England for crying out loud!

I’m cautiously optimistic that his financial background might translate into more practical support programs for supply management operations like ours. Can you imagine having a PM who understands what cash flow means to a dairy farm? After dealing with politicians who think milk comes from cartons, it would be refreshing to have someone who understands how financial markets affect farm gate prices.

The carbon tax has been hitting Canadian dairy farms harder than most realize. Beyond direct heating costs, it’s increased feed prices (grain drying uses propane), transportation expenses, and processing costs. According to Dairy Farmers of Ontario, these “hidden” carbon tax costs add approximately $0.03-0.04 per liter to production expenses—costs that American competitors simply don’t face.

What I’m hoping to see from Carney are programs like:

Low-interest financing for those energy-efficient barn upgrades we’ve all been putting off
Some actual muscle behind developing new export markets (because, let’s face it, we can’t rely on the U.S. anymore)
Help strengthen our supply chains after years of disruptions

The Election Game: Has Carney Changed Canadian Dairy Policy Rules?

Tyler McCann from the Canadian Agri-Food Policy Institute made an interesting point the other day. He said Carney’s carbon tax position has “narrowed the differences between the Conservatives and Liberals” on a key issue for farmers.

You know what that means, right? We may see politicians competing for our votes with something other than carbon tax promises! Maybe they’ll have to address issues like labor shortages in processing plants or the insane cost of farm transfers to the next generation.

But here’s the million-dollar question: Has the Liberal Party changed its approach to Canadian dairy policy, or is this just election smoke and mirrors? McCann put it perfectly when asked, “Do people think that Liberals have changed?” I’m still on the fence about that one.

What Should You Do While Politicians Play Their Games?

I don’t know about you, but I’m not waiting to see if political promises turn into actual policies. Here’s what I’m doing on my operation, and maybe it makes sense for yours too:

I’ve started shopping around for Canadian-made equipment alternatives. They’re more challenging to find, but they exist!
I’m fast-tracking those energy efficiency upgrades I’ve been procrastinating on. With carbon tax savings, the payback period looks a lot better.
I joined a group of local producers, pooling our buying power for inputs—strength in numbers.
I’ve been keeping detailed records of any tariff-related cost increases. If support programs materialize, I want my documentation ready.

The Dairy Farmers of Canada carbon adjustment tool has been invaluable for calculating exactly how much the tax costs for my operation and where I can make changes. Have you tried it yet?

The Bottom Line: Keep Your Head Up and Your Options Open

I’ve been through enough election cycles to know politicians come and go, but dairy farming is forever. Carney might bring a fresh approach with his financial background, or he might be another suit-making promise he can’t keep.

I know this: smart money is used to prepare for multiple scenarios in this changing Canadian dairy landscape. The farms that will thrive through these political and trade upheavals are the ones that stay flexible and plan.

How do you feel about Carney’s promises? Are you optimistic he’ll deliver for dairy farmers or skeptical of another politician’s empty words? Share your thoughts below – we’ll feature the most insightful responses in next week’s Bullvine newsletter and pass your concerns directly to industry representatives at the upcoming National Dairy Policy Conference!

Remember, the cows still need milking, regardless of who’s running the country!

Learn More:

Why Donald Trump Hates Canada’s Dairy Supply System
Breaks down Canada’s supply management system and why it’s a recurring target in U.S. trade negotiations.
Trump’s Tariffs: Can History Repeat Without Repeating Mistakes?
Analyzes lessons from past U.S.-Canada trade wars and risks of escalating tariffs in 2025.
Trump’s Dairy Tariff War: How U.S. Farmers Could Benefit from Canada’s Trade Barriers
Explores the potential upside for American dairy producers amid renewed trade tensions.

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Categories : Politics

Tags : agricultural trade war 2025, Canadian dairy tariffs, Mark Carney carbon tax, USMCA trade agreement

TRUMP’S 250% DAIRY TARIFF THREAT: What’s Really at Stake for Your Farm

Tuesday, March 11th, 2025

Tariff showdown countdown: With Trump’s 250% dairy tariff threat just weeks away, I’m exposing the shocking truth about the US-Canada trade that politicians won’t tell you. Your milk check hangs in the balance as April 2 approaches – here’s what dairy farmers need to know NOW.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: This escalating US-Canada dairy dispute isn’t what it seems. While Canada imposes tariffs exceeding 200% on certain dairy imports, these only apply after specific quota limits are reached – and US exporters are filling just 42% of these quotas on average. Despite political rhetoric suggesting otherwise, America already enjoys a massive dairy trade surplus with Canada, exporting CAD 756.62 million in 2023 with a CAD 463 million advantage. With President Trump threatening 250% retaliatory tariffs starting April 2, producers on both sides face significant market disruptions that could permanently alter North American dairy trade patterns.

KEY TAKEAWAYS:

US dairy exporters are currently using only 42% of their tariff-free quota access to Canadian markets, yet demanding more
America has a verified CAD 463.37 million trade surplus in dairy with Canada (2023 data)
Canada’s high dairy tariffs (298.5% on butter, 245.5% on cheese) only apply AFTER quota limits are reached
Trump’s April 2 implementation deadline creates a high-stakes showdown with substantial export volume at risk
Once lost, export markets are challenging to regain, as demonstrated in previous trade disputes

US-Canada dairy tariffs, 250% dairy tariffs, USMCA trade agreement, dairy trade surplus, April 2 tariff deadline

Do you know what gets my blood boiling? When politicians use dairy farmers as pawns in their political chess games. And boy is that happening right now with this whole US-Canada tariff mess.

I’ve been following this story obsessively since Trump dropped that bombshell about slapping 250% retaliatory tariffs on Canadian dairy products. April 2nd, folks. That’s when this thing could blow up. But honestly? Most of what you’re hearing about this dispute is political hot air that has nothing to do with what’s happening on the ground.

Let me break this down for you over a virtual cup of coffee – farmer to farmer, no bull.

THE TARIFF SMOKE AND MIRRORS GAME

Here’s something that made me spit out my morning coffee when I first discovered it: You know those crazy-high Canadian tariffs everyone’s screaming about? The 298.5% on butter and 245.5% on cheddar cheese? They only kick in after specific quota limits are reached – and get this – we aren’t even close to hitting those limits!

I’m not making this up. The Dairy Reporter published the numbers last November, and they’re shocking. The average fill rate across all 14 Canadian dairy tariff-rate quotas under USMCA was 42% in 2022/23. For crying out loud, 9 of the 14 categories exceeded half of what was negotiated!

In regular human language: We’re nowhere near hitting the ceiling where those massive tariffs would apply.

So when Trump claims Canada raised dairy tariffs during Biden’s administration? Complete nonsense. The rates haven’t changed – they’re precisely what Trump himself negotiated in the USMCA deal he once called “the best trade deal ever made.”

And here’s another fact that surprised me: Canada’s initial tariff on milk imports from the US is just 7.5% until quota limits are reached – a far cry from the 270% figure Trump’s been tossing around since 2018. The system hasn’t changed since 1970!

TWO DAIRY WORLDS COLLIDING

You can’t understand this fight without appreciating our fundamentally different dairy systems. It’s like comparing a carefully choreographed ballet to a mosh pit.

Canada’s supply management system is like a ballet—controlled, precise, and designed to prevent surpluses and wild price swings. Their farmers get stable incomes without massive government handouts, and it’s worked pretty darn well for them.

Meanwhile, what do we have? I hate to say it, but “organized chaos” is being generous. We’re drowning in milk, with the government functioning as the buyer of last resort. Many of our operations lose money on every gallon produced, with federal spending on milk, cheese, yogurt, and subsidies running $25-40 billion annually in an industry worth about $60 billion.

That’s not a business model – it’s life support. And deep down, we all know it.

When you have two systems this different, friction is inevitable. Canada guards its carefully balanced domestic market while we—already neck-deep in oversupply—desperately push for more export opportunities.

Would you be shocked if your neighbor got annoyed when you kept trying to dump your extra hay in their barn after they’ve told you they’ve got enough? Same principle.

THE $463 MILLION SECRET NOBODY’S TALKING ABOUT

Want to hear something that makes this whole fight even more ridiculous? The United States already has a massive dairy trade surplus with Canada.

I looked up the official 2023 numbers from the Canadian Dairy Information Centre. We exported CAD 756.62 million of dairy to Canada while importing just CAD 293.25 million. That’s a CAD 463.37 million advantage flowing into American pockets!

US-Canada Dairy Trade Balance (2023)

Direction	Value (CAD)
US exports to Canada	$756.62 million
Canadian exports to US	$293.25 million
US trade surplus	$463.37 million

Source: Canadian Dairy Information Centre, as cited by Dairy Farmers of Canada, March 2025

And get this – our exports to Canada topped $1 billion in 2022, making Canada our second-largest dairy export market according to the IDFA.

So I’ve to ask: If the current arrangement is so terrible for us, why are we selling more to them every year?

The reality is a bit different from what politicians want you to hear. Last November, a dispute panel under USMCA ruled that Canada’s dairy tariff rate quota allocation measures don’t breach USMCA commitments. Two out of three panelists found it in Canada’s favor.

But you probably didn’t see that splashed across the headlines, did you?

WHAT THE INDUSTRY BIGWIGS ARE SAYING

You don’t have to take my word on how serious this is. The IDFA – not exactly known for alarmist statements – has explicitly warned that “a prolonged tariff war with our top trading partners will continue to create uncertainty and additional costs for American dairy farmers, processors, and our rural communities.”

When I read that, I thought, “No kidding – tell us something we don’t know!”

US Trade Representative Katherine Tai was pretty steamed after that November 2023 dispute panel ruling. She said the US “continues to have serious concerns about how Canada is implementing the dairy market access commitments it made in the agreement.”

Jim Mulhern from the National Milk Producers Federation has been beating this drum since 2022: “U.S. dairy farmers and exporters have been unable to make full use of USMCA’s benefits.”

Meanwhile, David Wiens from Dairy Farmers of Canada doesn’t see it that way north of the border. He argues that increased US access has already “come at a direct cost to Canadian dairy farmers, reducing their market share and weakening the stability of Canada’s domestic dairy sector.”

Two sides, two stories – but only one reality.

WHAT THIS MIGHT MEAN FOR YOUR MILK CHECK

Let’s get honest about what matters most – your bottom line. If Trump pulls the trigger on those 250% tariffs come April 2, Canada will retaliate faster than a heifer spotting an open gate. And that could slam the door on a massive chunk of that export market.

Haven’t we already experienced enough trade disruptions? Remember what happened during previous disputes? Alternative suppliers jumped in, and we’ve struggled to regain market share. Look at the soybean farmers during the 2018 US-China trade war—Brazilian farmers expanded acreage by 35% and permanently changed the market.

Once you lose a customer, getting them back is more complicated than getting a cow back in the barn after she’s tasted freedom.

The most frustrating part? We’re fighting over access quotas we’re not even filling! It’s like arguing over seconds when you haven’t finished your first helping. That 42% average fill rate across all dairy TRQs tells me the real issues might lie elsewhere—perhaps in the products we’re trying to sell or how we’re approaching the market.

I was struck by the rare bipartisan statement after the November 2023 dispute panel ruling. House Agriculture Committee Chairman Glenn “GT” Thompson (R-PA) and ranking member Rep. David Scott (D-GA) both expressed disappointment: “It is critical the U.S. encourage and enforce USMCA, and this decision allows Canada to continue their questionable protectionist practices that disallow fair access to Canadian markets.”

When was the last time you saw Republicans and Democrats agree on anything? That caught my attention.

CUTTING TO THE CHASE: WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

Strip away all the political noise, and here’s what you and I both need to understand:

First, those headline-grabbing Canadian tariffs of 200%+ on dairy only kick in after specific quota limits are reached – limits we aren’t coming close to filling currently. The system hasn’t changed under Biden; it’s precisely what Trump negotiated.

Second, we already have a CAD 463 million trade surplus with Canada in dairy. The market access issue isn’t about being locked out – it’s about wanting an even bigger piece of their pie.

Third, April 2 could change everything. If history’s any guide, once market relationships break, fixing them takes years, not months.

Finally, this whole mess highlights just how precarious our dairy model is. When we consistently produce more than our domestic consumers want, we become vulnerable to precisely these kinds of trade disruptions.

WHAT SMART DAIRY PRODUCERS ARE DOING RIGHT NOW

We’ve got weeks, not months before this potentially goes from threats to reality. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has confirmed April 2 as the implementation date for Trump’s proposed tariffs. That doesn’t leave much time for diplomats to work their magic.

If I were you (and in the same boat), I’d be stress-testing my operation for different scenarios. What happens if your milk buyer suddenly loses Canadian market access? Where will those milk solids go instead? How might that affect your milk price?

These are questions worth asking now, not after the tariffs hit.

Sure, the USDA might ride to the rescue with some of that $42 billion farm assistance they’re planning for 2025. But counting on politicians to save you is like trusting a bull with your good China. They might surprise you, but I wouldn’t bet the farm.

Here’s the cold, hard truth: this tariff battle is a lose-lose proposition for dairy farmers on both sides of the border. Canadian consumers will face higher prices if American dairy products are excluded, while we risk losing a significant export market that’s taken decades to develop.

The only winners are dairy exporters from other countries, who are probably already licking their chops at the opportunity to fill any gap in the Canadian market. They don’t care about our political disputes—they just see dollar signs.

LEARN MORE:

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Categories : Politics

Tags : 250% dairy tariffs, April 2 tariff deadline, dairy trade surplus, US-Canada dairy tariffs, USMCA trade agreement

Trump’s Dairy Tariff War: How U.S. Farmers Could Benefit from Canada’s Trade Barriers

Friday, March 7th, 2025

Trump’s bold move to impose reciprocal tariffs on Canadian dairy could reshape the global trade. What does this mean for U.S., Canadian, and global farmers?

Executive Summary

President Donald Trump has announced plans to impose reciprocal tariffs on Canadian dairy products, targeting Canada’s protectionist supply management system, which imposes steep over-quota tariffs of up to 241% on U.S. imports. This bold strategy aims to level the playing field for American farmers while pressuring Canada to reform its restrictive trade practices. U.S. dairy farmers, who export 18% of their milk production globally, could benefit from reduced competition and improved market access, though retaliatory measures from Canada may create short-term disruptions. Canadian farmers face potential price pressures as their insulated domestic market is challenged, while global producers in Europe and Oceania may seize opportunities in disrupted markets. This move builds on Trump’s first-term USMCA reforms but escalates efforts to address unresolved trade imbalances. The outcome of this tariff war could redefine North American dairy markets and have ripple effects worldwide.

Key Takeaways

Reciprocal Tariffs: Trump’s plan targets Canada’s 241% over-quota tariffs on U.S. dairy imports, aiming to create a fairer trade balance.
U.S. Dairy Impact: American farmers could see reduced competition domestically and better access to Canadian markets but face short-term volatility.
Canadian Farmers at Risk: Canada’s supply management system may face reform, exposing farmers to increased competition and price pressures.
Global Opportunities: European and Oceania producers could gain market share if U.S.-Canada tensions disrupt traditional trade flows.
Strategic Escalation: Building on USMCA reforms, Trump’s aggressive stance signals a shift from diplomacy to direct economic leverage in trade disputes.

Trump dairy tariffs, Canadian supply management, USMCA dairy provisions, dairy trade dispute, U.S. dairy exports

President Donald Trump has announced plans to implement reciprocal tariffs on Canadian dairy products, potentially as soon as today (March 7, 2025), in a decisive move to address longstanding imbalances in North American dairy trade. Speaking from the Oval Office on Friday, Trump emphasized his determination to confront what he characterized as Canada’s unfair tariff system that has disadvantaged American dairy producers for decades. For most U.S. dairy farmers, this aggressive stance represents the decisive action they’ve been seeking to level the competitive playing field.

“Ripping Us Off for Years” – Trump Takes Aim at Canadian Dairy Barriers

President Trump didn’t mince words during his Oval Office address, directly challenging Canada’s complex dairy tariff structure that has effectively limited American access to their market. “Canada has been ripping us off for years on tariffs for lumber and dairy products,” Trump stated, signaling his immediate intent to implement reciprocal measures.

This announcement’s timing is particularly significant, as it comes just days after his Joint Session address, in which he emphasized his “America First” trade philosophy.

While many mainstream media outlets have oversimplified Canada’s dairy tariff system, the reality is more nuanced and even more problematic for American producers. Canada operates a quota-based system where initial imports face relatively low tariffs, but punitive tariffs kick in once these quotas are exceeded. The official Canadian tariff schedule reveals the true magnitude of these barriers:

Dairy Product	Within Access Commitment	Over Access Commitment
Milk	7.5%	241% but not less than $34.50/hl
Cream	6.5%	295.5% but not less than $4.29/kg
Condensed Milk	2.84¢/kg	259% but not less than 78.9¢/kg

Trump’s approach is characteristically direct: “They’ll be met with the same tariff unless they drop it. That’s what reciprocal means. And we may do it as early as today, or we’ll wait until Monday or Tuesday.”

This declaration clearly shows that the administration is prepared to use America’s economic leverage to secure better terms for dairy farmers, who have long felt disadvantaged by international trade agreements that failed to deliver promised benefits.

Beyond the Tariffs: Canada’s Supply Management System Explained

To truly appreciate why Trump’s move resonates so strongly with American dairy farmers, it’s essential to understand Canada’s supply management system. This protectionist framework controls dairy production and imports to maintain high domestic prices.

This system operates through three key mechanisms:

First, Canada strictly limits domestic milk production through quotas assigned to individual farmers. Second, it establishes minimum pricing for dairy products that ensures Canadian producers receive above-market returns. Third, and most problematically for U.S. producers, it implements those steep tariffs on imports that exceed carefully limited Tariff Rate Quotas (TRQs).

Under the USMCA agreement negotiated during Trump’s first term, Canada agreed to eliminate tariffs on dairy imports up to a set volume covering approximately 3.6% of the Canadian market. However, implementation has been contentious, with Canada allocating 85-100% of these quotas to processors rather than distributors and providing no TRQ access to retailers.

According to official USMCA documentation, Canada maintains TRQs on 14 different categories of dairy products. Four of these TRQs (Milk, Cream, Butter and Cream Powder, and Industrial Cheeses) include end-use restrictions requiring specific percentages to be used for processing into ingredients for further food processing, not retail sales. These technical restrictions further limit the practical market access for American dairy exporters.

“The supply management system isn’t just about tariffs –a comprehensive protectionist framework designed to keep American dairy products out of Canadian refrigerators,” explains dairy economist Thomas Reynolds. “Trump’s approach targets the most visible aspect of this system, but signals a willingness to challenge the framework that disadvantages American producers.”

American Dairy Exports: Growing Despite the Barriers

Trump’s confrontational stance on Canadian dairy tariffs comes against the backdrop of record performance for American dairy exports. According to USDA data, U.S. dairy exports reached an impressive $8.22 billion in 2024, marking the second-highest value ever recorded. This success demonstrates the growing global competitiveness of American dairy products despite persistent trade barriers.

U.S. Dairy Export Metrics (2024)	Value/Volume
Total Export Value	$8.22 billion
Total Export Volume	2.65 Million Metric Tons
3-Year Average	$8.59 billion
Growth Rate (2015-2024)	4.6% compound annual growth

Canada has become an increasingly important market for American dairy, with exports to our northern neighbor reaching a record $1.14 billion in 2024. Along with Mexico ($2.47 billion), Canada now represents more than 40% of all U.S. dairy exports. These figures underscore both the opportunity and the challenge. While American dairy has made inroads into the Canadian market, the restrictive tariff system continues to limit the full potential of this trading relationship.

The dairy export achievements of 2024 included several notable milestones. For the first time, U.S. cheese exports exceeded 500,000 metric tons in a single year, with a remarkable 17% improvement year-over-year. This cheese export success stands in contrast to the challenges that milk powder exports (NFDM/SMP) faced, which declined by 8% in 2024. These mixed results highlight the complex market dynamics that American dairy farmers navigate and explain why many view Trump’s decisive action on trade barriers as essential to their future prosperity.

How Canada Limits U.S. Dairy Access: The USMCA Implementation Challenge

Under USMCA, Canada committed to providing Tariff Rate Quotas for various dairy products, but the implementation details reveal why American producers remain frustrated despite these commitments. Canada’s TRQ allocation system is designed to minimize disruption to their domestic market while technically meeting USMCA obligations.

TRQ Administration Feature	Canadian Implementation	Impact on U.S. Exporters
Allocation Distribution	85-100% of quota to processors	Processors have little incentive to import competing products
End-Use Restrictions	Requirements for processing use on multiple TRQs	Restricts product marketing flexibility
Retail Access	No TRQ access provided to retailers	Limits direct consumer market access
Eligible Applicants	Narrow definition excludes many potential importers	Reduces competition for quota allocation

A 2021 dispute settlement panel confirmed U.S. complaints about Canada’s TRQ allocation measures. The panel found, “The current Canadian system, which sets aside significant TRQ volumes only for processors, does not pass muster under the Treaty.” However, in a subsequent panel decision in late 2023, two of three panelists found that Canada’s revised measures did not breach USMCA commitments, while one panelist agreed with the U.S. regarding Canada’s narrow definition of eligible applicants.

Both sides claimed victory in these disputes. Canadian Trade Minister Mary Ng stated, “The panel expressly recognizes the legitimacy of Canada’s supply management system.” At the same time, then-USTR Katherine Tai declared it “a historic win” that would “help eliminate unjustified trade restrictions on American dairy products.”

This contradictory interpretation illustrates why many dairy farmers have grown frustrated with traditional diplomatic approaches to addressing trade barriers. Trump’s reciprocal tariff approach represents a significant escalation beyond these diplomatic efforts, reflecting frustration with Canada’s continued resistance to meaningful market opening despite USMCA commitments.

What Tariff Wars Mean for Your Milk Check

Implementing reciprocal tariffs on Canadian dairy would create significant market dynamics that American dairy farmers should consider carefully. Industry experts offer varying assessments of the potential impacts:

Michael Dykes, President and CEO of the International Dairy Foods Association (IDFA), has expressed optimism about America’s dairy export potential, noting that “consumers around the world continue to demand more U.S. dairy because we provide an assortment of delicious, nutritious and affordable dairy products.” While not directly addressing Trump’s tariff proposal, Dykes has emphasized that “with new trade agreements that remove obstacles and increase market access, we wouldn’t just break records – we would redefine the global dairy landscape for decades to come.”

For dairy farmers already navigating complex market dynamics, the prospect of more balanced trade relations offers hope for improved stability and profitability. While there may be short-term adjustments as markets respond to new tariff structures, many in the industry believe the long-term benefits of addressing unfair trade practices outweigh temporary disruptions.

Global Impact: How Trump’s Tariff Strategy Affects Dairy Farmers Worldwide

Trump’s reciprocal tariff approach could fundamentally reshape dairy trade dynamics across North America and beyond. Looking beyond individual farm operations, the tariff strategy has distinct implications for producers in different regions of the global dairy marketplace.

US Dairy Farmers

For American dairy producers, Trump’s confrontational stance represents potential short-term market disruption and long-term strategic advantage. The US dairy industry, which supports 3.2 million jobs and contributes nearly $800 billion to the economy, has invested over $8 billion in new processing capacity that depends on continued export growth.

The immediate benefit for US farmers could be reduced competitive pressure from Canadian imports in specific product categories, potentially strengthening domestic prices. Trump’s focus on achieving fair trade could finally address the frustrating imbalance that has hindered American access to Canadian markets while Canadian products faced fewer barriers entering the United States.

With approximately 18% of US milk production currently exported, any policy that increases domestic market protection while simultaneously working to secure better international market access represents a significant opportunity. The challenge will be managing any retaliatory actions from trading partners during what Trump has acknowledged will be an “adjustment period.” US producers should prepare for potential short-term price volatility while positioning for improved market conditions once trade negotiations conclude.

Canadian Dairy Farmers

Canadian dairy producers face the most direct impact from Trump’s tariff strategy. Canada’s supply management system has protected domestic producers through quotas and steep over-quota tariffs (241% for milk, not the sometimes claimed 270%) for decades. This system has effectively insulated Canadian dairy farmers from international competition while ensuring stable, often higher-than-market prices.

Trump’s reciprocal tariff approach directly challenges this protected status quo. Canadian dairy farmers may soon confront market conditions they’ve long avoided through their government’s protectionist policies. If negotiations result in meaningful reform of Canada’s supply management system, Canadian producers could face increased competition and potential price pressures as market forces play a more significant role in determining dairy values.

The Canadian government’s swift retaliatory measures, including announced tariffs on $30 billion worth of American products and threats of an additional $125 billion in tariffs, demonstrate its concern about disruption to its carefully managed dairy sector. These defensive actions reflect the significant stakes for Canadian dairy producers, who have benefited from decades of protection from international competition.

Global Dairy Producers

Beyond North America, dairy farmers worldwide watch this trade confrontation for opportunities and warning signs. European and Oceania dairy exporters, particularly those from Ireland, France, the Netherlands, New Zealand, and Australia, may find new opportunities to gain market share if US-Canada trade tensions persist.

Chinese markets, which have imported between $500-800 million worth of US dairy products annually in recent years, could become battlegrounds for international competition if US products face barriers in traditional markets. European producers, already significant players in the global dairy trade, are well-positioned to fill any gaps created by disrupted North American trade flows.

The situation creates a complex calculus for dairy farmers outside North America. While potential market openings may emerge in the short term, the long-term restructuring of global dairy trade patterns could create new competitive pressures. As Trump’s tariff strategy progresses, global producers must carefully monitor the direct US-Canada negotiations and the secondary effects on international market access, pricing dynamics, and regulatory frameworks.

From NAFTA to USMCA to Tariff Wars: The Evolution of Dairy Trade Policy

Trump’s current position on Canadian dairy tariffs builds upon his first-term accomplishments in renegotiating the North American trade relationship. The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), implemented in July 2020, made incremental improvements in dairy market access compared to NAFTA, securing the elimination of Canada’s Class 7 milk pricing program and establishing those limited TRQs for American dairy products.

Yet implementation challenges have prevented American producers from realizing the full benefits promised. The dispute settlement process has yielded mixed results, with panel decisions that both sides have interpreted differently. This diplomatic approach has made incremental progress but has failed to reform Canada’s supply management system fundamentally.

Trump’s more confrontational strategy represents a calculated escalation to force more meaningful reform. By directly targeting Canada’s tariff imbalances with reciprocal measures, the administration signals that American patience with gradual diplomatic progress has run out.

A Watershed Moment for American Dairy

President Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs on Canadian dairy products represents a potentially watershed moment for American dairy farmers who have long struggled against Canada’s protectionist policies.

By directly challenging the tariff imbalance, the administration is signaling its determination to secure meaningful market access rather than accepting incremental diplomatic victories that leave the core barriers in place.

For US dairy farmers, this decisive action aligns with their preference for government policies that directly prioritize American interests and confront unfair trade practices.

As these developments unfold in the coming days and weeks, The Bullvine will continue providing the detailed analysis and expert perspective that dairy producers need to navigate these complex trade dynamics. What’s clear is that Trump’s bold stance on Canadian dairy tariffs has fundamentally changed the conversation about North American dairy trade, potentially opening the door to more substantial reforms than previous approaches achieved.

Learn more

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Categories : Politics

Tags : Canadian supply management, dairy trade dispute, Trump dairy tariffs, USMCA dairy provisions

25% US-Canada Tariffs Disrupt Cattle & Embryo Trade: Impact on Dairy Breeding

Tuesday, March 4th, 2025

BREAKING NEWS TODAY: New 25% tariffs will hit both sides of the US-Canada border, making your Canadian embryos a quarter more expensive. Act now.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Implementing 25% tariffs on virtually all US-Canada trade effective today (March 4, 2025) creates unprecedented disruption in North America’s integrated cattle and embryo markets, threatening $1.14 billion in annual US dairy exports to Canada. These tariffs are pivotal for the dairy genetics and breeding sector, with immediate impacts on the cross-border movement of live cattle and genetic material. The International Dairy Foods Association warns that “a prolonged tariff war will deliver significant economic damage to American dairy farmers, processors, and rural communities.” Dairy producers must immediately recalculate breeding economics, particularly for pre-purchased but unshipped genetics that will face tariffs regardless of purchase date, while exploring domestic alternatives to maintain profitability in this new trade landscape.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

All pre-purchased but unshipped genetics will be subject to 25% tariffs when crossing the border, regardless of when the purchase was made.
The integrated North American cattle supply chain faces significant disruption as tariffs affect both countries simultaneously.
Canada has implemented immediate retaliatory tariffs on US goods worth CA$30 billion (US$20.7 billion), including dairy products such as yogurt and buttermilk.
This escalation in trade tensions threatens US dairy exports to Canada ($1.14 billion) and Mexico ($2.47 billion).
Dairy producers should evaluate whether imported genetics justify the 25% premium over domestic alternatives while exploring value-added processing to offset tariff costs.

US-Canada tariffs, dairy cattle trade, embryo imports, bovine genetics, cross-border breeding

The escalating trade tensions between the United States and Canada have resulted in significant tariff impositions threatening to upend the deeply integrated North American cattle and embryo trade. As of March 4, 2025, these tariffs represent a profound shift in cross-border agricultural commerce largely unimpeded since the 1988 Reagan-era free trade pact. These developments introduce unprecedented challenges and potential market reconfiguration for dairy producers involved in genetics trade, breeding stock acquisition, or those leveraging the growing beef-on-dairy market. This article examines the multifaceted impact of these tariffs on the cattle and embryo trade between these two historically cooperative trading partners.

Breaking Down the 25% Tariff: Immediate Impacts on Dairy Genetic Flow

President Trump’s administration has implemented a sweeping 25% tariff on virtually all Canadian imports, with energy resources facing a reduced 10% tariff. This blanket application makes no explicit exemption for live cattle or bovine embryos, subjecting these biological assets to the entire 25% markup. Simultaneously, Canada has announced retaliatory measures, imposing their own 25% counter-tariffs on CA$30 billion (US$20.7 billion) worth of American products, with implementation coinciding with the U.S. tariff date.

The implications for dairy genetics and cattle trade cannot be overstated. These tariffs are pivotal when genomic technology has accelerated genetic progress to unprecedented levels. Producers are making increasingly strategic breeding decisions based on genomic data, but significant tariff burdens complicate these decisions.

The tariffs come at a particularly sensitive time for the US dairy industry, which has built substantial export relationships with Canada over the past decade, as demonstrated in the table below:

US Dairy Export Market	2024 Value (USD)	Volume (Metric Tons)	Notes
Mexico	$2.47 billion	757,081	Top US dairy export market
Canada	$1.14 billion	221,883	Second largest market
China	$584 million	385,485	Third largest market
Total Exports	$8.22 billion	Not specified	Second-highest level ever

Source: US Foreign Agricultural Service data, 2025

This table illustrates the significant economic stakes in the tariff dispute. Any disruption to these trade relationships has profound implications for both countries’ dairy sectors, particularly as the US dairy industry supports more than 3.2 million jobs and contributes almost $800 billion to the US economy.

The specific impact on genetic trade between the US and Canada is substantial, as shown in the cross-border bovine genetic trade data:

Genetic Material Type	US Exports to Canada (USD)	Canadian Exports to US (USD)	Year
Bovine Semen	$9.0 million	$32.2 million	2023
Dairy Cattle	Not specified	$30.0 million	2023
Total Value at Risk from 25% Tariff	$2.3 million	$8.1 million	Based on 2023 data

Sources: Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC), 2023; Statistics Canada, 2023

This table demonstrates the significant bilateral trade in genetic material. Canada is the primary source of bovine semen for the United States, accounting for approximately 82% of US bovine semen imports. The 25% tariff would add roughly $8.1 million in costs to US importers of Canadian genetics based on 2023 trade levels.

The growing importance of Canadian dairy genetics to US breeding programs is evident in the steady increase in Canadian dairy cattle exports to the United States over recent years:

Year	Value of Canadian Dairy Cattle Exports to US (CAD)	Number of Cattle Exported (head)
2019	$13,404,002	7,387
2020	$11,832,255	7,637
2021	$12,643,127	7,488
2022	$23,864,105	11,061
2023	$29,726,266	10,743

Source: Statistics Canada and Global Trade Tracker, 2023

This data reveals a dramatic 121% increase in the value of Canadian dairy cattle exports to the United States since 2019, reaching nearly million in 2023. The newly implemented 25% tariff will add approximately $7.4 million in additional costs to US dairy producers importing Canadian genetics, based on 2023 trade levels. This substantial growth trajectory demonstrates how integrated the two countries’ dairy genetics programs have become—and how disruptive these new tariffs will be.

Critical Timing: What Happens to Pre-Purchased Embryos Caught in Tariff Transition

The embryo market faces particular challenges under the new tariff regime. While conventionally bred calves can be produced domestically, elite embryos often cross borders to maximize genetic potential. The 25% tariff represents a significant premium that must be justified through superior genetic merit.

The timing of tariff implementation becomes critically essential—purchases made before March 4, 2025, but not yet shipped across the border will face these new tariffs. This creates immediate urgency for genetic materials caught in this transitional period.

Value-added processing of genetic materials presents potential tariff mitigation opportunities. For example, the domestic gender-selected semen market has grown substantially in recent years. Producers may achieve returns that offset tariff costs by focusing on these higher-value genetic products rather than raw materials.

International Dairy Foods Association Responds to Tariff Implementation

The International Dairy Foods Association (IDFA) has responded to the new tariffs with concern, releasing a statement urging a quick resolution: “The U.S. dairy industry urges the Trump Administration to quickly resolve the ongoing tariff concerns with Canada, Mexico, and China—America’ top agricultural trading partners. A prolonged tariff war will deliver significant economic damage to American dairy farmers, processors, and rural communities. Therefore, we urge the Administration to resolve these tariffs as soon as possible.”

This urgent call for resolution comes as the dairy industry has invested more than $8 billion in new processing capacity that will come online in the next few years. With approximately 18% of US milk production destined for export markets, the industry depends on increased trade access to open new markets and increase exports. The IDFA notes that after being a net importer of dairy products a decade ago, the United States now exports $8 billion to 145 countries, with Mexico and Canada representing more than 40% of these exports.

Canada’s Retaliatory Measures Target US Dairy

Canada’s response to the US tariffs has been swift and proportional. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that CA$30 billion (US$20.7 billion) worth of goods from the US into Canada will be subject to a 25% levy. Importantly for the dairy sector, this includes a wide range of dairy products, from yogurt to buttermilk and other fresh and processed foods.

This direct targeting of dairy products in Canada’s retaliatory measures creates a double impact on the North American dairy industry. Imports and exports face new tariff barriers simultaneously. For operations with integrated cross-border production systems, this dual impact could create significant challenges for maintaining cost-effective production.

Conclusion: Navigating Uncharted Waters in North American Dairy Genetics

The 25% tariffs implemented between the United States and Canada on March 4, 2025, represent a seismic shift in the dairy genetics landscape, which has thrived on cross-border collaboration for decades. The timing couldn’t be more challenging—they arrive precisely as genomic advancements accelerate genetic progress. For an industry historically defining itself through innovation and adaptation, this represents perhaps its most significant test in a generation.

Forward-thinking dairy producers must now move quickly to reevaluate their genetic procurement strategies. Calculations that made economic sense just days ago now require complete reconsideration. Elite Canadian genetics must demonstrate 25% more value to justify their new cost structure, while domestic alternatives suddenly present previously overlooked competitive advantages. The producers who will thrive view this disruption not merely as an obstacle but as a catalyst for strategic evolution in their breeding programs.

The resilience of the North American dairy and beef sectors will be tested as production systems that evolved under decades of free trade adjust to this new reality. Adaptation will require leveraging the full power of genomic technology to make increasingly precise breeding decisions, maximizing the value derived from each pregnancy, and exploring creative arrangements to maintain genetic progress despite trade barriers. While political solutions may eventually emerge, waiting for such developments represents a dangerous gamble.

Ultimately, these tariffs will separate forward-looking producers from those stuck in established patterns. The most successful operations will be those that rapidly pivot to new sourcing strategies, leverage domestic genetic resources more effectively, and implement data-driven approaches that maximize reproductive efficiency in the face of increased costs. The North American dairy industry has repeatedly demonstrated its capacity for innovation throughout its history, and despite these unprecedented challenges, there’s every reason to believe it will do so again.

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Categories : Politics

Tags : bovine genetics, cross-border breeding, dairy cattle trade, embryo imports, US-Canada tariffs

Trump’s Tariff Strategy: Fighting for Fair Trade While Protecting $8.2 Billion in U.S. Dairy Exports

Sunday, March 2nd, 2025

Trump’s bold tariff strategy aims to secure fair trade while protecting a record-setting $8.2 billion U.S. dairy exports. Last year, Mexico imported $2.47 billion in American dairy products, and Canada imported $1.14 billion. The administration seeks to leverage its economic strength to address national security concerns while fighting for better market access for U.S. dairy farmers ahead of USMCA renegotiations.

Executive Summary

President Trump’s strategic use of tariff threats targeting America’s key trading partners represents a calculated effort to secure better terms for U.S. dairy farmers while addressing critical national security concerns. The stakes are high, with dairy exports reaching $8.2 billion in 2024, including record shipments to Mexico ($2.47 billion) and Canada ($1.14 billion). Commerce Secretary nominee Howard Lutnick has specifically targeted Canada’s restrictive dairy policies, promising dairy farmers they will “do much, much better in Canada than they’ve ever done ” ahead of USMCA’s 2026 review. Meanwhile, eliminating tariffs under CAFTA-DR demonstrates how effective trade agreements can dramatically expand export opportunities.

Key Takeaways

President Trump has announced 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports, which are scheduled to take effect on March 4. An additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods is already in place.
U.S. dairy exports reached $8.2 billion in 2024, with Mexico and Canada importing record values of $2.47 billion and $1.14 billion respectively
Commerce Secretary nominee Howard Lutnick has specifically pledged to address Canada’s restrictive dairy policies that have prevented U.S. exporters from filling tariff-rate quotas.
The CAFTA-DR agreement success story shows how strategic trade deals can expand markets, with U.S. dairy exports to Central America growing from $40 million to $441 million.
The timing of these negotiations is strategic. They will create leverage ahead of the USMCA’s 2026 review when dairy market access can be renegotiated.

As President Trump employs bold trade tactics to secure better deals for American farmers, the dairy industry watches closely to see how his strategic pressure on key trading partners will impact our record-setting export channels. The President’s approach aims to leverage America’s economic might to address critical national security issues while tackling unfair trade practices that have disadvantaged U.S. dairy producers for decades. With dairy exports reaching $8.2 billion in 2024—the second-highest total ever—much is at stake in this high-stakes negotiation.

Tariff Timeline and Strategic Objectives

President Trump has announced a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada and a 10% tariff on Chinese goods. Implementation for Mexico and Canada is now set for March 4, 2025. According to the latest updates from trade officials, the additional Chinese tariffs have already taken effect as of February 3. These measures represent a calculated approach to addressing national priorities, including border security and trade fairness.

Commerce Secretary nominee Howard Lutnick articulated the administration’s position clearly: “It’s not a tariff, per se; it is an action of domestic policy” to address fentanyl trafficking and border security. This framing acknowledges the broader strategic objectives behind the tariff threat, particularly concerning Mexico, where stemming the flow of illegal drugs remains a top priority for many rural communities affected by the opioid crisis.

The on-again, off-again nature of the tariff announcements represents President Trump’s negotiating style, which proved effective during his first term in securing concessions from trading partners. While creating temporary market uncertainty, this approach aims to achieve long-term benefits for American producers by forcing trading partners to address persistent inequities in market access, particularly in Canada’s heavily protected dairy sector.

Mexico and Canada: Cornerstone Markets Worth Fighting For

For dairy farmers, Mexico and Canada represent irreplaceable export destinations that have grown dramatically over the past decade. In 2024, these two neighbors purchased more than 40% of all U.S. dairy exports, with Mexico importing a record $2.47 billion and Canada a record $1.14 billion in American dairy products. This trading relationship has steadily expanded, making any disruption potentially significant for American dairy farmers.

Cheese exports to Mexico have been robust, with significant year-over-year growth. Mexico is the leading destination for U.S. skim and non-fat powder and the second-largest market for whole milk powder. The magnitude of these export relationships underscores why the administration is treading carefully with implementation dates while maintaining pressure for broader policy changes.

Although there is potential for short-term market disruption, the administration aims to secure better long-term trading conditions rather than permanently restrict trade. This approach aligns with President Trump’s successful negotiation of the USMCA during his first term, which aimed to create more equitable trading relationships within North America.

Canada’s Dairy Market Access: A Fight Worth Having

Commerce Secretary nominee Lutnick didn’t mince words when addressing Canada’s treatment of American dairy farmers: “Canada… treats our dairy farmers horribly. That’s got to end. I’m going to work hard to make sure, as an example for your dairy farmers, they do much better in Canada than they’ve ever done “. This forceful commitment signals the administration’s understanding of a key issue that has frustrated American dairy producers for decades.

Despite improved access under USMCA, Canadian policies prevent American exporters from filling their tariff-rate quotas. Michael Dykes, president and CEO of IDFA, noted that “our exports to Canada have yet to fulfill the promises of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) because Canadian policies continue to prevent American exporters from filling their tariff-rate quotas.”

With the USMCA up for review in 2026, the current pressure campaign is a significant leverage to secure meaningful reforms to Canada’s supply management system, effectively blocking American dairy farmers from equal market access. This represents a strategic approach to using America’s economic leverage to benefit dairy farmers directly.

CAFTA-DR Success Shows Benefits of Strategic Trade Agreements

While current trade tensions dominate headlines, it’s worth noting the recent success story of the Central America-Dominican Republic Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA-DR), which achieved the complete elimination of tariffs on dairy products as of January 2025. This milestone demonstrates how strategic trade agreements can substantially benefit American dairy producers over time.

Before the implementation of CAFTA-DR in 2006, U.S. dairy exports to the region were a mere $40 million. By 2023, that figure had grown elevenfold to more than $441 million. This dramatic growth shows how proper trade agreements can expand market access that benefits American farmers. The success in Central America provides a blueprint for what effective trade policy can achieve when adequately negotiated and enforced.

The following table highlights the remarkable growth in U.S. dairy exports to CAFTA-DR countries since 2006:

Category	2006 Exports	2023 Exports	2025 Projections	Growth (%)
Cheese	$34m	$238m	$264m	+595%
Milk powders	$3.2m	$120m	$135m	+3,650%
Whey products	$2.8m	$35m	$48m	+1,150%
Total	$40m	$441m	$527m	+1,217%

This success story reinforces the Trump administration’s approach of using America’s market leverage to secure better deals. The impressive growth in Central American markets demonstrates that when American negotiators secure favorable terms, U.S. dairy producers can compete and win on the global stage.

However, even with tariffs eliminated under agreements like CAFTA-DR, American dairy exporters still face significant non-tariff barriers that require ongoing diplomatic pressure:

Country	Tariff Status	Key Non-Tariff Barrier	Avg. Delay/Cost
El Salvador	0% since 2025	Facility registrations	72 days
Nicaragua	0% since 2025	Port inspection fees	+$42k/shipment
Guatemala	0% since 2025	Labeling disputes	21% rejections
Dominican Republic	0% since 2025	Quota administration	+$15k/compliance

These persistent challenges highlight why the administration’s aggressive stance on trade enforcement remains necessary even after signing formal agreements. As one Idaho farmer noted, “My ice cream melted in Costa Rican customs last month—$12,000 gone because paperwork ‘wasn’t shiny enough.'” Strong executive leadership must address these ongoing non-tariff barriers that can undermine even the best trade agreements.

Industry Response Balances Concerns with Support for Stronger Negotiations

The International Dairy Foods Association (IDFA) has taken a measured approach to the tariff announcements, acknowledging the administration’s legitimate national security and trade fairness objectives while expressing hope that implementation avoids unintended consequences for dairy farmers and processors.

The organization emphasized its commitment to working with the Trump Administration to expand trade opportunities while urging continued proactive negotiations with top trading partners. This balanced response reflects the industry’s recognition that tough talks can lead to better outcomes, even if they create short-term market uncertainty.

Industry analysts note that the tariff threat creates valuable leverage ahead of USMCA renegotiations in 2026, potentially securing better terms for U.S. dairy access to the Canadian market. While acknowledging potential disruption, many see the administration’s approach as addressing long-standing inequities that previous administrations failed to resolve.

Strategic Approach to Tariffs Challenges Conventional Wisdom

Secretary nominee Lutnick has challenged the conventional wisdom that tariffs necessarily lead to inflation, stating, “It is just nonsense that tariffs cause inflation. It is nonsense.” While economists continue to debate this perspective, Lutnick emphasized that selective pressure on trading partners can redirect manufacturing and production to domestic sources, potentially strengthening America’s economic independence.

The administration’s approach favors “tariffing entire countries, rather than specific products, to ‘create reciprocity, fairness and respect’ and return manufacturing bases to the U.S.” This macro approach seeks to rebalance trading relationships that have disadvantaged American producers through non-tariff barriers and subsidies from foreign governments.

This approach could yield significant benefits for dairy farmers if it successfully addresses Canada’s highly protected dairy market while maintaining strong export relationships with Mexico. Strategically using tariffs as negotiating leverage rather than permanent barriers aligns with President Trump’s dealmaking approach, which he demonstrated during his first term.

What Dairy Farmers Should Watch For

As this situation evolves, dairy farmers should monitor several key factors that could signal market impacts. First, pay close attention to any changes to the March 4 implementation timeline for tariffs on Mexico and Canada, as these could shift based on diplomatic developments. Second, watch for any signs of retaliatory measures specifically targeting dairy products, which would have immediate market implications.

Current dairy market conditions provide an essential context for understanding potential impacts. The following table shows recent CME dairy product prices as of February 25, 2025:

Product	Closing Price ($/lb)	Change from Yesterday (¢/lb)
Cheese (Blocks)	1.8800	NC
Cheese (Barrels)	1.7925	-0.75
Butter	2.3450	-2.50
Nonfat Dry Milk	1.2000	-2.50
Dry Whey	0.5350	NC

These prices reflect some softening in butter and nonfat dry milk markets, while cheese prices have remained relatively stable. USDA forecasts average Class III prices at $19.10 per hundredweight for 2025 and Class IV at $19.70, though these projections were made before the latest tariff announcements. Farmers should monitor how these prices respond to trade developments in the coming weeks.

Industry experts recommend that farmers communicate openly with their processors or cooperatives regarding potential market adjustments. Some processors may adjust production schedules or product mix to accommodate changing export opportunities, which could impact milk component values. Additionally, farmers should review risk management strategies, including forward contracting and futures market tools, to help mitigate potential price volatility.

While the ultimate impact remains uncertain, the dairy industry stands to benefit significantly if the administration successfully leverages these tariff threats to secure better market access, particularly in Canada. The track record of Central American trade success demonstrates that properly negotiated and enforced agreements can deliver substantial benefits to American dairy producers.

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Categories : Politics

Tags : Mexico Canada dairy trade, tariff impact on agriculture, Trump dairy tariffs, U.S. dairy export markets, USMCA dairy exports

Trump’s Tariffs: Can History Repeat Without Repeating Mistakes?

Tuesday, February 25th, 2025

Farmers are on edge as President Trump reaffirms 25% tariffs on Canadian dairy. While some see this as a chance to dismantle Canada’s supply management system, others worry about repeating the costly mistakes of past trade wars. Will these tariffs lead to long-term gains or just more short-term pain?

Summary

President Trump’s confirmation of 25% tariffs on Canadian dairy imports, set to take effect March 4, 2025, has ignited fierce debate within the U.S. agricultural sector. While the administration frames this move as a strategic push to break Canada’s supply management system, many farmers remain skeptical, recalling the painful aftermath of similar tariffs in 2018. That trade war resulted in a $28 billion government bailout and accelerated the decline of small dairy operations. This time, stakeholders are demanding more than just temporary measures, calling for structural reforms to address labor shortages, subsidy inequities, and global competition. As the deadline approaches, the dairy industry finds itself at a crossroads, weighing the potential for long-term market access against the risks of immediate economic disruption and retaliatory measures from Canada and Mexico. The outcome could reshape North American dairy trade for decades to come.

Key Takeaways

President Trump has renewed criticism of Canada’s dairy supply management system, calling it unfair to U.S. farmers and threatening tariffs.
The U.S. imposed 25% tariffs on most Canadian imports on February 4, 2025, with Canada retaliating with tariffs on $30 billion of U.S. goods.
Trump is pushing to renegotiate USMCA in 2026, potentially threatening Canada’s dairy protections.
Canada’s supply management system imposes high tariffs (up to 298%) on imported dairy products to protect domestic farmers.
The dairy dispute impacts $1.2 billion in annual trade between the U.S. and Canada.
Canadian farmers fear losing the stability provided by supply management, while U.S. farmers seek increased market access.
Canada passed Bill C-282 to protect supply management from trade concessions, but it faces challenges under U.S. pressure.
Some argue Canada needs to reform its dairy system to remain competitive, while others say eliminating it would devastate Canadian farmers.
The dispute has reignited debate over food sovereignty vs. free trade principles in agriculture.

As President Trump reaffirms 25% tariffs on Canadian dairy effective March 4, farmers face déjà vu. While the administration touts this as a decisive blow against Canada’s protectionist supply management system, critics warn of repeating 2018’s costly trade war. This $28 billion bailout debacle failed to secure long-term gains. This time, stakeholders demand structural reforms, not just short-term salvos.

Lessons From 2018: Bailouts and Broken Promises

The $28 Billion Hole

Trump’s 2018 tariffs triggered retaliatory measures that crushed U.S. agricultural exports, particularly soybeans, which plummeted from $19.5 billion in 2017 to $9 billion by 2018. To stem the bleeding, the USDA funneled $23 billion through its Commodity Credit Corporation, with soybean growers alone receiving $7.3 billion. Despite this, farm bankruptcies rose 20% in 2019, and small dairy operations collapsed at twice the national average.

Wisconsin dairy farmer Jake Mueller reflects:

“We got checks, sure—but they were Band-Aids on bullet wounds. Most neighbors sold their herds or retired. The bailouts just delayed the inevitable.”

Subsidy Inequities Exposed

While the 2018 bailouts stabilized prices, they disproportionately benefited megafarms. USDA data shows 42% of dairy revenue now comes from government support, with 70% of subsidies flowing to operations with 500+ cows. This accelerated the 40% decline of small dairies since 2000, as family farms lacked the scale to leverage robotic milking systems or methane digesters.

Proposed Fix:

Subsidy Caps: Limit payments to farms with <200 cows to prevent corporate consolidation.
Trade War Insurance: USDA-backed revenue guarantees for small producers during disruptions.

Canada’s Supply Management vs. U.S. Efficiency

The Quota Conundrum

Canada’s supply management system—described by Trade Rep Katherine Tai as “a state-sponsored cartel”—imposes 298% tariffs on dairy imports and forces farmers to discard excess milk. Since 2012, 7 billion liters of Canadian milk (worth $14.9B) have been wasted. Yet Ottawa’s lobby ensures political immunity: dairy farmers contribute 25% of federal campaign funds in rural ridings.

U.S. Competitive Edge

American dairies operate at 10x Canada’s scale, slashing per-unit costs by 34%. However, retaliatory tariffs threaten key inputs:

Potash: 30% of U.S. supply comes from Canada; tariffs could raise fertilizer costs by $60/acre.
Labor: 16% of dairy workers are undocumented migrants; visa reforms lag despite sector collapse risks.

Idaho Dairy Cooperative CEO warns:

“Without H-2A visa expansion, tariffs will starve us of workers before they squeeze Canada.”

Strategic Opportunities Amid Risks

Short-Term Realities

Cheese Exports: 23% of U.S. cheese heads to Canada ($650M/year). Mexico’s threat to tax Wisconsin cheddar could cost $1.5B annually—repeating 2018’s Midwest losses.
Inflation: Trump’s 2018 steel tariffs raised appliance prices by 12–30%; dairy inputs (feed, equipment) may follow.

Long-Term Plays

USMCA Renegotiation: Demand Canada triple tariff-free quotas (currently 3% of their market).
Diversification: Target China’s $12B dairy import gap, leveraging USDA’s $2B “Dairy 2030” AI initiative.
Value-Added Shift: Redirect surplus milk to lactose-free/protein products—a $4.8B growth sector.

Political Crosscurrents

Rural Base Solidifies… For Now

68% of dairy farmers back tariffs in Farm Pulse polls, swayed by Canada’s 270% butter duties. Yet skepticism simmers. Iowa GOP Chair:

“We’ll tolerate short-term pain if Trump dismantles supply management—not just postures.”

Democratic Nuance

Even critics concede strategic merit. Senator Jon Tester (D-MT) notes:

“Canada’s system is rigged. But tariffs without immigration reform and subsidy caps? That’s 2018’s playbook—and we saw how that ended.”

The Road Ahead: Structural Reform or Cyclical Bailouts?

March 4 Deadline: Canada could avert tariffs by expanding U.S. access to 5% of its market, creating 12K U.S. jobs.
Labor Fixes: Pair tariffs with H-2A visa expansions to address 16% workforce gaps.
Anti-Consolidation Measures: Tax incentives for small farms adopting robotics/AI.

Conclusion: Beyond the Tariff Bluster

Trump’s tariffs could either catalyze long-overdue reforms or repeat 2018’s cycle of bailouts and consolidation. For farmers, the stakes transcend milk quotas: it’s about proving protectionism can be dismantled without sacrificing rural America’s backbone. As Wisconsin’s StarkD_01 bluntly observes:

“Bailouts just paid for vacations. This time, we need wins—not welfare.”

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Categories : Politics

Tags : Canadian dairy, Supply Management, trade war, Trump tariffs

Lee Zeldin’s EPA Leadership: Regulatory Shifts and Opportunities for Dairy Farmers

Monday, February 24th, 2025

Lee Zeldin’s EPA shifts spark relief for dairy farmers: Slashed compliance costs, blockchain adoption, and state-led conservation take center stage. Exclusive tables reveal $10k annual savings for small farms and 54% recall cost drops with traceability tech. Can innovation offset regulatory gaps?

Summary

Lee Zeldin’s confirmation as EPA Administrator ushers in regulatory rollbacks that promise $8,000–$10,000 in annual savings for small dairy farms through relaxed emissions reporting and streamlined water protections. In contrast, dairy cooperatives adopt blockchain traceability to meet global sustainability demands. States like New York and Michigan fill federal gaps with manure-to-energy grants and PFAS bans, though critics warn of long-term environmental risks. With 72% of U.S. dairy exports now blockchain-verified, the sector balances Zeldin’s pro-growth agenda with consumer and market pressures for transparency, testing whether self-regulation can sustainably offset federal deregulation.

Key Takeaways

Regulatory Relief: Zeldin’s EPA exempts sub-700-cow CAFOs from emissions reporting, saving small farms $8K–$10K annually in compliance costs.
Blockchain ROI: DairyTrace cuts recall costs by 54% and boosts consumer trust scores to 89%, securing premium export pricing.
State Innovation: NY’s $50M manure-to-energy program slashes lagoon emissions by 41%, while Michigan’s PFAS bans reduce feed contamination.
Industry Endorsements: IDFA and NCBA praise Zeldin’s “commonsense” approach, citing FDA’s removal of milk fat caps in “healthy” labels as a win.
Market Realities: 72% of U.S. dairy exports use blockchain to meet EU standards, sidestepping federal mandates.
Critic Concerns: Environmental groups warn lax oversight risks water quality, though state programs mitigate gaps.

Lee Zeldin, EPA, dairy farmers, blockchain traceability, regulatory relief

The Senate confirmed Lee Zeldin as EPA Administrator on January 30, 2025, marking a pivotal shift toward deregulation and industry collaboration. For dairy farmers, Zeldin’s agenda promises reduced compliance costs, relaxed nitrous oxide (N₂O) monitoring for manure lagoons, and support for voluntary sustainability initiatives like blockchain traceability. While environmental groups warn of risks, dairy cooperatives and trade associations applaud the move as a return to “commonsense stewardship” that balances ecological priorities with economic growth.

Regulatory Relief and Economic Benefits for Dairy

Policy Aspect	Pre-Zeldin Approach (Biden EPA)	Zeldin EPA Changes
CAFO Reporting	Required for 700+ cow operations	Exempts sub-700 cow facilities
Wetland Protections	85% of waterways are under federal oversight	Narrowed to “navigable waters only”
Price Supports	$9.90/cwt baseline (1949 parity)	Market-driven pricing prioritized

1.1 Cutting Compliance Costs

Zeldin’s EPA is expected to exempt smaller concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs) from federal emissions reporting, reversing Biden-era rules that required costly monitoring systems. According to the Meat Institute, similar rollbacks under Trump’s first term saved meat processors over $1 billion annually in regulatory compliance costs. For dairy farms with fewer than 700 cows, this could translate to $8,000–$10,000 in annual savings through reduced paperwork and equipment expenses.

“For too long, the EPA has stood for ‘Ending Production Agriculture,’” said Ethan Lane of the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association. “Under Zeldin, we’ll see policies that trust farmers as America’s original conservationists.” [12].

1.2 Streamlining Water Protections

Zeldin supports narrowing the Clean Water Act’s jurisdiction over wetlands, a move applauded by the International Dairy Foods Association (IDFA). This shift could reduce permitting requirements for manure runoff into ephemeral streams, which IDFA argues have burdened small farms with “arbitrary compliance hurdles.” Critics warn it risks water quality, but Zeldin counters that states like Michigan and New Yorkalready enforce stricter local standards.

Innovation in Manure Management

Metric	Traditional Systems	Blockchain Systems	Improvement
Traceability Time	7 days	2.2 seconds	99.96%
Avg Recall Cost	$14M	$6.5M	54% ↓
Consumer Trust Score	62%	89%	+27 pts

2.1 Voluntary GHG Reduction Programs

Dairy Farmers of America (DFA) reports that 62% of U.S. dairy processors now use blockchain platforms like DairyTrace to track manure-to-energy conversion and emissions. These systems align with Zeldin’s emphasis on private-sector solutions over mandates. DFA’s climate-smart pilot projects have reduced emissions by 30% on participating farms, with costs as low as $10 per metric ton of CO₂e in later phases.

2.2 Federal Support for Methane Capture

While Zeldin’s EPA avoids methane regulations, the USDA’s Climate-Smart Commodities Program has allocated $50 million to manure-to-energy projects in dairy-heavy states like New York. Such initiatives allow farmers to monetize waste while sidestepping federal oversight—a “win-win” praised by IDFA President Michael Dykes.

Dairy Industry Endorsements and Market Access

Funding Source	2005-2018 Total	Jobs Created	Avg Cost Per Job
Federal Dairy Checkoff	$4B	N/A	N/A
NY State Grants	$75M	2,100	$35,714
Zeldin-Era NY Digestors	$50M	112 farms	$446k/farm

3.1 IDFA’s Priorities Take Center Stage

Zeldin’s team has actively engaged with IDFA, representing 300+ dairy processors. Key wins for the industry include:

No limits on milk fat in “healthy” claims: The FDA revised its proposed rule to exclude caps on saturated fats from dairy, ensuring products like whole milk and cheese can market their nutritional benefits.
SNAP Dairy Incentives Expansion: The Senate’s 2024 Farm Bill framework includes a Dairy Nutrition Incentives Program to boost milk, yogurt, and cheese purchases among SNAP recipients—a move projected to increase domestic dairy demand by 4%.

3.2 Export Market Preparedness

With the EU banning Red 3 dye and enforcing stricter sustainability metrics, dairy cooperatives are leveraging blockchain to meet global standards. Rejolut’s traceability systems now cover 72% of U.S. dairy exports, ensuring compliance without federal mandates. One Wisconsin farmer lets us prove our practices to Brussels without waiting for D.C.”

State-Federal Collaboration: Case Studies

4.1 New York’s Manure-to-Energy Success

New York’s $50 million state-funded program has equipped 112 dairy farms with anaerobic digesters since 2023, reducing lagoon emissions by 41%. Zeldin’s EPA plans to replicate this model through grants, not mandates, in 10 states by 2026.

4.2 Michigan’s PFAS Mitigation

While Zeldin resists federal PFAS regulations, Michigan’s 2024 ban on PFAS-laden biosolids in fertilizers has cut dairy feed contamination by 27%. “States don’t need EPA overreach to protect farms,” argued Dairy One’s sustainability lead.

Voices from the Heartland

5.1 Farmer Testimonials

Jake Thompson, mid-sized NY dairy operator: “Finally, an EPA that trusts us to manage our land. We’ve cut emissions 20% ourselves using cover crops—no inspectors needed.”
Sarah Miller, Idaho co-op member: “Blockchain opened doors in Europe. We’re getting $0.12 more per gallon for verified low-carbon milk.”

5.2 Academic Perspective

Dr. Ariel Ortiz-Bobea (Cornell) cautions that “deregulation isn’t inherently bad, but data-driven policies ensure long-term viability.” His research shows farms using smart rotational grazing maintain comparable profits to CAFOs while reducing nitrogen runoff.

Conclusion: A New Era of Farm-Led Stewardship

Zeldin’s EPA marks a decisive turn toward state flexibility and industry innovation. While environmentalists fear lax federal oversight, dairy farmers highlight tangible gains: lowered costs, empowered state programs, and market-driven sustainability. As IDFA’s Dykes notes, “This isn’t about rolling back protections—it’s about recognizing that farmers innovate best when Washington steps aside.”

With 72% of dairy processors now meeting EU standards voluntarily, the sector appears poised to thrive under a “trust, but verify” approach. The challenge is ensuring rural communities reap the benefits without sacrificing long-term ecological health—a balance Zeldin vows to strike through “partnership, not punishment.”

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Tags : blockchain traceability, dairy farmers, EPA, Lee Zeldin, regulatory relief

DOGE Review Reshapes Dairy: Conservation Cuts, Checkoff Scrutiny, and the WWF Connection

Saturday, February 22nd, 2025

DOGE axes $132M in USDA DEIA/climate contracts and preserves core checkoff programs. WWF ties are scrutinized as the GOP-backed whole milk expansion gains bipartisan support. Fiscal focus meets farm priorities.

Summary:

The DOGE review slashed $132M in USDA contracts, with $100M targeting DEIA consulting and $8.2M from climate programs, per FOIA data. While on-farm conservation projects were spared, mid-sized dairies report payment delays, and checkoff ties to WWF ($36M since 2008) face scrutiny. Bipartisan wins like whole milk in schools contrast with industrial advantages: IRA-funded methane digesters remain untouched. Transparency demands grow as the details of 78 terminated contracts trickle out weekly.

Key Takeaways:

$132M in Cuts Target Bureaucracy: $100M was slashed from DEIA consulting contracts, $8.2M from climate programs, and $20M in conservation funds were temporarily frozen. Zero on-farm projects were terminated (USDA FOIA).
Checkoff-NGO Ties Exposed: Dairy checkoff programs have partnered with WWF on methane goals despite the latter receiving $36M in USDA funding since 2008. The 2023 Farm Bill already bars NGO checkoff funding.
Mid-Sized Farms Squeezed: NRCS payment delays for cover crops and conservation practices, while mega-dairies retain IRA-funded methane digesters (USDA FPACBC).
Bipartisan Bright Spot: Whole milk expansion in schools gains rare GOP/Democratic support. It is funded partly by DEIA cuts (USDA FNS).
Transparency Demands: Only 10/78 terminated contracts were detailed publicly. Weekly disclosures are to continue at doge.gov/savings.
Industrial Advantage: FMMO handler assessments (5¢/cwt) and methane digester subsidies remain untouched, favoring large operations (ERS Dairy Outlook).

DOGE review, USDA contracts, dairy checkoff, WWF scrutiny, bipartisan support

The Department of Government Efficiency’s (DOGE) unprecedented review of USDA contracts has triggered a seismic shift in dairy policy. The DOGE has terminated $132 million in agreements, exposing tensions between climate initiatives, checkoff partnerships with NGOs, and core agricultural priorities. Only 10 of the 78 terminated contracts—totaling $4.21 million—have been publicly disclosed. Farmers and lawmakers demand transparency as conservation reimbursements stall and mandatory checkoff ties to the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) face scrutiny.

The $132 Million Breakdown: DEIA Dominates Cuts

Table 1: Breakdown of USDA Contract Terminations (Source: USDA)

Category	Amount	Details
DEIA Consulting Contracts	$100M	Four $25M contracts with Capitol-region firms for FNS assessments
Climate-Smart Commodities	$8.2M	Vermont firm contract for environmental compliance services
Conservation Program Release	$20M	EQIP/CSP/ACEP funds unfrozen Feb 20 after initial pause

FOIA disclosures reveal $100 million of terminated funds stemmed from four USDA Food and Nutrition Service (FNS) contracts for “Diversity, Equity, Inclusion, and Accessibility (DEIA) Assessment and Training Services” with Capitol-region consulting firms. Climate programs also took hits:

An $8.2 million contract for “Climate-Smart Commodities Environmental Compliance” was axed
$20 million in Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) conservation funds remained frozen until February 20

“They’re cutting paperwork, not plows,” noted a Pennsylvania dairy producer who requested anonymity. “My NRCS payments came through after the pause lifted. This is about stopping DC’s social engineering, not harming farmers.”

Key Clarification: USDA confirmed zero on-farm conservation projects were terminated. All cuts targeted administrative or NGO-linked contracts.

Checkoff Programs Under Microscope: The WWF Web

Table 2: Federal Funding to World Wildlife Fund (2008-2025) (Source: USAspending.gov)

Agency	Amount	Percentage	Key Dairy Connections
USAID	$310M	62%	Global sustainability certifications
Interior	$149M	30%	Biodiversity initiatives
USDA	$36M	7%	Checkoff partnerships, methane reduction plans
Other	$5M	1%	Cross-agency collaborations
Total	$500M	100%	Includes $36M from dairy checkoff oversight

The mandatory 15¢/cwt dairy checkoff—overseen by USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS)—faces DOGE scrutiny over its partnerships:

$36 million: USDA grants to WWF since 2008
$1 million/year: USDA’s cost to oversee dairy checkoffs via AMS
300–500 companies: WWF’s supply-chain leverage target to enforce sustainability standards

Documents show dairy checkoff groups (DMI, NDB) partnered with WWF as early as 2008 to develop methane-reduction frameworks—a move critics call contradictory:

“Checkoffs should promote milk, not police emissions,” argued Wisconsin Farm Bureau president Kevin Krentz. “WWF’s ‘Net Zero’ goals help processors, not producers.”

GOP Progress: The 2023 Farm Bill already barred checkoffs from funding NGOs, but DOGE’s review could accelerate reforms like Rep. GT Thompson’s proposed checkoff audit system.

Conservation Chaos? Data vs. Anecdotes

While USDA assures farmers that “contracts made directly to producers will be honored,” confusion persists:

EQIP/CSP/ACEP: $20 million released February 20 from farm bill programs
IRA projects: Remain under review, prioritizing “farmers over far-left climate schemes”
WWF exemptions: $36 million USDA contract untouched despite broader NGO cuts

Contradictory impacts emerge:

Industrial advantage: Mega-dairies retain IRA-funded methane digesters (exempt from pauses)
Mid-sized squeeze: Missouri farmers report delayed NRCS payments for cover crops

The Whole Milk Win: Bipartisan Bright Spot

Amid the turmoil, Secretary Rollins’ February 15 announcement expanding whole milk in school meals earned rare bipartisan praise:

“Finally, USDA promotes real dairy instead of plant-based imitations,” said Holstein Association CEO John Meyer. “This aligns with Rep. Mike Lawler’s Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act.”

Financial context: The DEIA cuts freed up $100 million to buy 250 million school milk cartons annually at current FNS rates.

Path Forward: Transparency and Trade-Offs

As DOGE’s review expands, stakeholders demand:

Full disclosure of all 78 terminated contracts (available weekly at doge.gov/savings)
Preservation of FMMO handler assessments (5¢/cwt costs untouched)
Audits of AMS’ $1.5 million annual checkoff oversight

Bottom line:

While small farms face paperwork delays, industrial operations gain ground through preserved IRA exemptions. Texas A&M economist Dr. Mark Welch observed that “Efficiency reviews always have winners. Here, it’s those who need bureaucracy least.”

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Tags : dairy checkoff, DOGE review, USDA contracts, WWF scrutiny

Brooke Rollins’ First Week: Strategic Deregulation and GOP-Aligned Reforms for Agriculture

Thursday, February 20th, 2025

Sec. Rollins shakes up USDA: Slashes red tape, backs EATS Act, and pushes H-2A reform. GOP dairy farmers cautiously optimistic as feed costs loom. Will her bold moves pay off? Get the full scoop here.

Summary:

In her first week as U.S. Secretary of Agriculture, Brooke Rollins launched a sweeping deregulation agenda aimed at streamlining USDA operations and aligning with GOP priorities. Key moves include endorsing the EATS Act to counter state-level regulations like California’s Proposition 12, pushing for H-2A visa reforms to address critical labor shortages, and implementing significant workforce cuts to redirect funds to frontline services. While these actions have energized Republican allies and many dairy farmers, concerns persist about rising feed costs due to proposed tariffs and the potential for retaliatory measures from trade partners. Rollins’ partnership with Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on SNAP reforms has also raised eyebrows, though projected increases in dairy demand offer a silver lining. As the dust settles, dairy producers are cautiously optimistic, recognizing the potential benefits of reduced regulatory burdens but remaining wary of short-term economic pressures.

Key Takeaways:

Rollins cut 4,912 USDA positions, redirecting $132 million to “frontline services”
Endorsed EATS Act to protect farmers from state regulations like California’s Prop 12
Pushing H-2A visa reforms to extend visas to 36 months and cap fees at $500
Proposed 15% tariff on imported soybean meal, potentially raising feed costs by 24%
SNAP reforms aim to boost dairy demand, especially in school meals
Partnered with controversial Health Secretary RFK Jr. on nutrition policy
Backed GOP Farm Bill framework, including crop insurance premium reductions
72% of surveyed Midwest dairy farmers support EATS Act protections
Labor reform and rising feed costs remain top concerns for producers
Next steps include Senate hearings on H-2A reforms and finalizing EATS Act language

USDA reform, EATS Act, H-2A visa reform, dairy farmers, regulatory cuts

In her inaugural week as U.S. Secretary of Agriculture, Brooke Rollins advanced a bold agenda to streamline federal oversight, expand trade opportunities, and align USDA priorities with Republican legislative efforts like the Ending Agricultural Trade Suppression (EATS) Act. While dairy producers cautiously assess the implications of rapid deregulation, Rollins’ focus on fiscal efficiency and state sovereignty in agriculture has galvanized GOP allies and underscored her alignment with Senator Joni Ernst’s long-standing advocacy for Iowa farmers.

Workforce Optimization: Redirecting Resources to Frontline Services

Rollins’ collaboration with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) resulted in the termination of 78 contracts ($132 million) and 4,912 non-essential positions, primarily in administrative roles. Critics initially raised alarms about cuts to animal health programs, but USDA clarified that savings would bolster critical services:

$28 million redirected to modernize mastitis surveillance systems, accelerating somatic cell count reporting.
15 new hires for manure management grant processing, reducing EQIP approval delays.
Disease response: Temporarily dismissed avian influenza teams were reinstated within 48 hours with expanded diagnostics funding (USDA workforce memo, 2025).

“This isn’t about shrinking government—it’s about sharpening it,” Rollins stated during a visit to Gallrein Farms. “Every dollar saved from redundant training funds programs producers use” (USDA, 2025).

Trade and the EATS Act: Countering California’s Prop 12

Rollins endorsed Senator Joni Ernst’s EATS Act, which prohibits states from imposing regulations like California’s Proposition 12 on out-of-state producers. This aligns with GOP efforts to protect Iowa’s $20 billion pork industry from external mandates:

Policy	Benefit	Risk
EATS Act inclusion	Blocks CA mandates on cage-free eggs	Legal challenges from animal rights groups
15% soybean tariffs	Shields domestic feed producers	Feed costs up 24% (NMPF, 2025)
USMCA renegotiation	Expands dairy access to Mexico/Canada	Retaliatory tariffs on cheese exports

“California doesn’t get to dictate how Iowa farmers raise livestock,” said Senator Ernst, a key EATS Act co-sponsor. “This ensures our producers can compete fairly nationwide” (Ernst press release, 2023).

Small-scale dairy operators remain divided. While the EATS Act prevents costly facility upgrades for California compliance, groups like the Farm Action Fund argue it favors corporate conglomerates. However, Rollins has countered this argument, stating that “Every farmer—large or small—deserves equal market access” (USDA, 2025), thereby ensuring that all dairy operators feel included in her policies.

Nutrition Policy: Boosting Dairy Demand

Rollins’ proposed SNAP restrictions barring sugary drinks drew praise from Republicans for promoting “nutritious choices,” while her partnership with Health Secretary RFK Jr. raised eyebrows. Key dairy-focused changes include:

School meals: Mandates unprocessed cheeses, projected to boost demand by 12% (USDA ERS, 2025).
WIC adjustments: Fluid milk subsidies rise 18%, though yogurt benefits dip 5%.
Retail incentives: $28M for convenience store cooler upgrades to expand fresh dairy access in food deserts.

Critics highlighted RFK Jr.’s controversial stance on raw milk, but Rollins distanced herself, stating, “Our focus is affordability, not fringe debates” (USDA press call, 2025). This practical approach to nutrition policy is designed to reassure the audience of the Secretary’s focus on the most pressing issues.

Labor Reform: Addressing Dairy’s Top Concern

Rollins prioritized Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer’s H-2A Modernization Act (H.R. 1615), which would:

Extend visas from 10 to 36 months for year-round dairy workers.
Cap visa fees at $500 (down from $1,460).
Fast-track Senate markup, with Sen. Roger Marshall forecasting “passage by July” (Senate Ag Committee, 2025).

“Labor shortages cripple us every season,” said Iowa Dairy Association CEO Mitch Davis. “This bill’s fee reduction alone saves my farm $50,000 annually” (Top Producer Summit, 2025).

Strategic Deregulation: Aligning with GOP Farm Bill Framework

Rollins backed the Senate GOP’s farm bill framework, which includes:

EATS Act provisions: Nullifying state-level regulations like Prop 12.
Crop insurance: 20% premium reduction for dairy feed crops.
Foreign land safeguards: Blocking adversarial nations from purchasing U.S. farmland.

The framework faced pushback from Democrats over climate program cuts, but Rollins defended it as “putting the farmback in farm bill” (Ernst press release, 2024).

Dairy Producer Sentiment: Pragmatic Optimism

A survey of 47 Midwestern operators revealed:

72% support EATS Act protections against CA regulations.
64% back workforce cuts if savings fund margin protection.
51% oppose tariffs without export offsets.

“Rollins gets that D.C. shouldn’t micromanage our barns,” said fourth-generation dairyman Carl Hansen of Cedar Rapids. “But feed costs keep me up at night” (Iowa Farm Bureau, 2025).

What’s Next?

March 1: Senate hearing on H-2A reforms.
April 15: Final EATS Act language expected in farm bill draft.
Ongoing: DOGE audit of USDA’s 29 agencies for further “waste reduction.”

Conclusion: A GOP Blueprint for Agriculture

Secretary Rollins’ first week solidified her role as a disruptor committed to deregulation, trade expansion, and aligning USDA with Republican legislative priorities. While challenges like feed costs and labor gaps persist, her strategic cuts and EATS Act advocacy resonate with Iowa producers seeking relief from coastal mandates. As Senator Ernst noted: “This isn’t about partisanship—it’s about letting farmers farm” (Ernst, 2025).

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Tags : dairy farmers, EATS Act, H-2A visa reform, USDA reform

USDA Workforce Reductions Spark Concerns for Dairy Sector

Tuesday, February 18th, 2025

USDA layoffs rock dairy industry: Thousands of federal workers axed as Trump administration slashes workforce. Farmers face delayed payments, loan processing bottlenecks, and weakened disease response. Is this streamlining or sabotage? Dive into the impacts and controversies shaping rural America’s future.

Summary:

The Trump administration’s recent termination of thousands of USDA employees has sent shockwaves through the agricultural sector, particularly impacting dairy farmers. The layoffs, part of a broader federal workforce reduction, have led to delays in conservation payments, loan processing bottlenecks, and concerns about weakened disease response capabilities. While USDA leadership frames the cuts as necessary streamlining, critics argue they jeopardize critical farm safety nets and animal health infrastructure. The move comes amid pre-existing labor challenges in the dairy industry, potentially exacerbating recruitment and retention issues. As legal challenges mount and farmers grapple with the immediate impacts, questions arise about the long-term consequences for rural communities and the future of federal agricultural support.

Key Takeaways:

The Trump administration has terminated thousands of USDA employees, primarily targeting probationary workers.
Layoffs affect key agencies like NRCS, APHIS, and FSA, impacting conservation programs, loan processing, and disease response.
An estimated 1,200-2,000 USDA staff have been laid off, with the U.S. Forest Service losing 3,400 employees.
Dairy farmers face delays in conservation payments, loan processing bottlenecks, and concerns about weakened animal health monitoring.
The cuts come amid pre-existing labor challenges in the dairy industry, with a 38.8% average turnover rate.
USDA leadership claims the cuts will streamline operations, while critics argue they jeopardize critical agricultural support systems.
Legal challenges have been filed by the American Federation of Government Employees, alleging violations of the Civil Service Reform Act.
The layoffs are part of a broader federal workforce reduction effort targeting an estimated 200,000 employees.
Technology may play a crucial role in mitigating some impacts of the workforce reduction.
Long-term consequences for rural communities and federal agricultural support remain uncertain.

USDA layoffs, dairy industry impact, federal workforce reduction, agricultural support systems, disease response capabilities

Over the past two weeks, the Trump administration’s sudden termination of thousands of U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) employees has sent shockwaves through the agricultural community. Dairy farmers are already feeling the impact with delayed conservation payments, reduced technical support, and weakened disease response capabilities. The layoffs, targeting probationary workers across agencies like the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) and Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS), are part of a broader federal workforce reduction effort estimated to impact 200,000 employees. USDA leadership claims the cuts will streamline operations, but critics argue they jeopardize critical farm safety nets and animal health infrastructure. The situation is urgent, and action is needed.

A Swift Workforce Overhaul

On February 11, President Trump signed Executive Order 14161, directing federal agencies to implement a “1:4 hiring ratio” (one hire for every four departures) and prioritize layoffs of probationary employees—those in their first two years of service. At USDA, this translated to the termination of 1,200–2,000 staff, including soil conservationists, loan officers, and disease response coordinators.

Newly confirmed Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins framed the cuts as necessary to eliminate bureaucratic bloat: “We are pursuing an aggressive plan to optimize USDA’s workforce by eliminating unnecessary positions and relocating staff to rural communities. Our focus remains on supporting farmers, ranchers, and forestry.” However, internal USDA emails reviewed by DTN reveal that termination notices broadly cited “poor performance” without specific critiques, even for employees with strong evaluations.

Scope and Scale of USDA Layoffs

Agency	Estimated Layoffs	Key Impacts
USDA (overall)	1,200-2,000	Across multiple agencies and roles
Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS)	~1,200	Conservation program delays
National Animal Health Laboratory Network	25% of central office staff	Slowed testing for Avian Influenza (H5N1)
U.S. Forest Service	3,400	Maintenance and conservation work affected

Dairy-Specific Impacts

Before delving into the specific impacts of USDA layoffs on dairy farmers, it’s important to note that the dairy industrywas already facing significant labor challenges. The National Dairy FARM Program’s Workforce Development Nationwide Labor Survey Report highlights these pre-existing issues:

Metric	Value
Average Turnover Rate	38.8%
Average Difficulty to Find Employees (5 Highest)	4.0

These figures underscore the existing recruitment and retention challenges in the dairy industry, which may be further exacerbated by the USDA layoffs and their ripple effects.

Conservation Program Delays

The NRCS—tasked with implementing Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) conservation initiatives—lost approximately 1,200 staff, many of whom were hired in 2022–2023 to manage surging demand for programs like cover crop payments. Kevin Burres, an Iowa dairy farmer, told Iowa Public Radio he’s awaiting $16,000 in overdue cover crop reimbursements due to frozen USDA funds:

“We covered upfront costs, and we are expecting payment in January. Now we’re stuck with bills we can’t recoup.”

The National Sustainable Agriculture Coalition warns that 12,000 conservation applications remain unfunded, with staffing gaps likely to prolong delays.

Loan Processing Challenges

Dairy farmers relying on USDA’s Farm Service Agency (FSA) loans face uncertainty as layoffs hit county offices. Texas FSA loan officer Maria Gutierrez (name changed) shared:

“Our team processed $6m in loans last quarter. With half our staff gone, applications are piling up right before planting season.”

The American Farm Bureau Federation notes that 30% of dairy operations depend on FSA as their sole credit source, raising concerns about liquidity crises.

Disease Response Risks

APHIS terminated 25% of its National Animal Health Laboratory Network (NAHLN) staff, coordinating testing for avian influenza (H5N1)—a virus now spreading in U.S. dairy herds. Keith Poulsen, Director of the Wisconsin Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory, warned:

“Labs are already overwhelmed. Cutting probationary staff will cripple our capacity to track outbreaks.”

H5N1 has infected dairy cattle in nine states, with delayed test results risking further spread.

Political and Legal Backlash

The American Federation of Government Employees (AFGE) filed unfair labor practice charges, alleging Civil Service Reform Act violations. AFGE President Everett Kelley argued:

“This is a politically driven purge, not a performance-based action. They’re gutting expertise that took years to build.”

USDA’s termination of $132M in contracts—including diversity initiatives and international projects—has also drawn scrutiny. While Rollins called these cuts a shift toward “meritocracy,” critics note DEI programs comprised just 0.1% of the USDA budget.

Dairy Farmers React

Republican-aligned dairy groups express mixed views. Jim Mulhern, CEO of the National Milk Producers Federation, cautiously endorsed efficiency goals but urged caution:

“We support streamlining, but not at the expense of food security or farmer livelihoods.”

Conversely, Iowa dairy farmer Chad Huisenga voiced frustration:

“Washington keeps touting ‘supporting rural America,’ but how does firing the folks who process loans and test sick cows help us?”

What’s Next?

Conservation Backlogs: USDA’s IRA-funded conservation programs face indefinite delays, forcing farmers to seek private lenders or scale back sustainability efforts.
Legal Challenges: AFGE lawsuits could temporarily reinstate some workers, but protracted court battles may leave roles unfilled during critical growing seasons.
Disease Surveillance: APHIS plans to redirect remaining staff to “priority outbreaks,” but gaps in routine monitoring risk the undetected spread of H5N1 and foot-and-mouth disease.

Long-Term Consequences of Government Workforce Downsizing

The ongoing government workforce downsizing initiative raises significant concerns about the long-term consequences for various sectors and services. Some potential impacts include:

Reduced capacity for environmental protection and conservation
Delays in scientific research and technological advancements
Limitations on public health response capabilities
Decreased oversight in financial and consumer protection sectors
Potential gaps in national security and nuclear safety measures

These public sector job losses directly impact individuals and families and have broader implications for communities that rely on federal services and the overall functioning of government agencies.

The Role of Technology in Mitigating Workforce Reduction Impacts

Integrating advanced technologies becomes increasingly crucial as federal agencies grapple with reduced staffing levels. Tools like those offered by Farmonaut can significantly support efficient land management and agricultural practices. Here’s how technology can help:

Satellite-based monitoring for vast land areas
AI-driven insights for resource allocation
Automated data collection and analysis
Remote sensing for environmental monitoring

Public Response and Concerns

The extensive federal employee buyouts and layoffs have not gone unnoticed by the public and various stakeholders. Concerns have been raised about:

The potential loss of institutional knowledge and expertise
Reduced capacity to respond to national emergencies
The impact on local economies is heavily dependent on federal jobs
Potential degradation of public services and land management

These concerns underscore the need for a balanced approach to government efficiency that doesn’t compromise essential services or long-term national interests.

Looking Ahead: The Future of Federal Employment

As we navigate this period of significant change in federal employment, several key questions emerge:

How will federal agencies adapt to operate effectively with reduced staff?
What role will technology play in filling gaps left by workforce reductions?
How will these changes impact the delivery of essential government services?
What long-term effects will this have on public land management and conservation efforts?

The answers to these questions will shape the future of federal employment and the effectiveness of government operations for years to come.

The Bottom Line

The USDA layoffs underscore a tension between small-government ideology and the practical needs of agricultural communities. For dairy farmers, the loss of technical staff and frozen conservation funds compounds existing challenges like low milk prices and labor shortages. While the administration promises long-term efficiency gains, short-term disruptions threaten to destabilize an industry still recovering from pandemic-era shocks. AFGE’s Kelley noted: “You can’t rebuild expertise overnight—especially when cows need milking and crops need planting.”

The ongoing federal workforce reduction represents a significant shift in U.S. public administration and resource management policies. While increasing government efficiency is essential, balancing this with the need to maintain adequate public services and proper management of our nation’s resources is crucial.

As we move forward, it will be essential to:

Carefully monitor the impacts of these workforce reductions
Explore innovative solutions to maintain service quality with reduced staff
Ensure that critical areas like public land management, health services, and national security are not compromised
Leverage technology and data-driven approaches to enhance efficiency

The path forward will require thoughtful consideration, ongoing assessment, and a willingness to adapt strategies to ensure the continued effective functioning of our federal government and the protection of our nation’s valuable resources.

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Tags : agricultural support systems, dairy industry impact, disease response capabilities, federal workforce reduction, USDA layoffs

Trump’s Criticism Reignites Debate on Canada’s Dairy Policy

Friday, February 14th, 2025

Trump’s dairy battle heats up! As tariffs loom, Canada’s supply management system faces its toughest test yet. With U.S. farmers crying foul and Canadian producers digging in, milk has become a weapon in international politics. What’s at stake for farmers and consumers on both sides of the border?

Summary:

U.S. President Donald Trump has criticized Canada’s dairy supply management system, claiming it blocks American dairy products with high import tariffs and is unfair to U.S. farmers. Both countries have imposed new tariffs on each other’s goods, impacting a $1.2 billion dairy trade at risk and causing market uncertainty for farmers. While the U.S. sees it as a chance for better market access, Canadian farmers fear the loss of the system that ensures stability. With the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement up for review in 2026, there’s a possibility of changes to Canada’s dairy policies as tensions continue to grow.

Key Takeaways:

Canada’s supply management system in the dairy sector remains a point of contention in U.S.-Canada trade relations.
Trump has criticized Canadian dairy policies, labeling them as unfair to American farmers and threatening tariffs.
U.S. dairy farmers seek increased market access amidst challenges of oversupply and low prices.
Canadian farmers are concerned about maintaining stability and income through the existing system.
Reforms to the system are debated, with calls for modernizing to remain competitive while protecting domestic interests.
The Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) and TRQs are pivotal in ongoing trade negotiations.
Both nations face significant trade tensions, impacting future relations and market dynamics.

Trump, dairy trade, Canada tariffs, supply management, CUSMA negotiations

The ongoing clash between President Donald Trump and Canada’s dairy supply management system has reignited a long-standing contentious debate between the two nations. Since returning to the White House in 2025, Trump has intensified his criticism of Canada’s dairy policies, sparking a heated political debate.

Trump’s Renewed Attack

Trump’s recent comments have focused on what he perceives as Canada’s unfair trade practices in the dairy industry. These include high import taxes and strict production quotas that limit American dairy exports to Canada. He argues that Canada’s high import taxes create barriers that significantly hinder the sale of American dairy products in Canada, thereby placing U.S. farmers at a severe disadvantage in the Canadian market.

“Canada charges the U.S. a 270% tariff on Dairy Products! They didn’t tell you that, did they? Not fair to our farmers!” Trump tweeted.

The President has even threatened to impose tariffs on Canadian goods if the dairy system isn’t reformed. This renewed pressure comes as the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) is set for formal review in 2026, with discussions likely to ramp up in 2025.

Recent Developments Under Trump

Since taking office in January 2025, Trump has made several moves affecting trade and agricultural policies:

Executive Orders: Trump has issued a series of executive orders, including those affecting trade policies, in what he has described as a “shock and awe” campaign. He has mandated reviews of all trade agreements to verify their fairness to the U.S.
CUSMA Renegotiation: Trump seeks to renegotiate the CUSMA, which could threaten Canada’s dairy protections. He asserts that the current agreement inadequately supports U.S. farmers.
Tariff Implementation: On February 2, 2025, the U.S. and Canada imposed 25% tariffs on each other’s agricultural imports, significantly impacting the $1.2 billion annual dairy trade.
Further Escalation: On February 9, 2025, Trump announced he would unveil a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports into the United States.

Impact on the Canadian Dairy Industry

The renewed pressure from the Trump administration, which threatens changes to the dairy system, is causing concern in Canada’s dairy sector:

Uncertainty: Canadian dairy farmers are worried about potential changes to the system that could threaten their livelihoods. They are also increasingly concerned about their ability to stay competitive in a market flooded with U.S. dairy products.
Policy Challenges: Canada’s recent Bill C-282, aimed at protecting supply management from trade deal concessions, may face challenges under increased U.S. pressure. This law was meant to prevent Canada from giving up more of its dairy market in trade talks, but Trump’s administration is pushing hard against it.
Retaliatory Measures: On February 2, 2025, Canada implemented retaliatory measures by imposing tariffs on $30 billion worth of U.S. imports affected by tariffs. Additionally, Canada is preparing to impose more tariffs on $125 billion later this month.

Canadian Government’s Response

The Canadian government and the dairy industry have jointly vowed to protect the supply management system through increased lobbying efforts, strategic alliances with other dairy-producing nations, and advocacy for policy reforms safeguarding domestic dairy producers. Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly stated, “We have always said we would protect supply management. The Liberal Party put supply management in place, and we protected it during the last (free-trade) renegotiation. We’ll be there to protect it.”

The Supply Management System: A Closer Look

Canada’s supply management system operates through strict production quotas and high import tariffs. Here’s how it works:

Controlling Production: The Canadian Dairy Commission (CDC) determines how much milk Canada needs and instructs farmers on production levels, helping to keep prices steady.
Setting Prices: The CDC sets minimum milk prices to ensure farmers earn a sustainable income regardless of market fluctuations.
Limiting Imports: Canada imposes high tariffs on imported dairy products, including 298% on butter. This makes it difficult for foreign dairy companies to compete with Canadian products.

Impact on Consumers

The dairy system in Canada brings both benefits and drawbacks to consumers. While Canadians may experience higher prices than Americans, they also enjoy a consistent milk supply, support local dairy farmers, and benefit from stringent quality control standards. However, limited access to foreign dairy products may restrict consumer choices and variety.

Higher Prices: Canadians generally pay more for milk and cheese than Americans. For example, a family in Canada might spend $100 more per year on dairy products than a similar family in the U.S.
Steady Supply: The system ensures a steady milk supply, regardless of price fluctuations in other countries. Canadians don’t have to worry about milk shortages.
Limited Variety: Due to the import tariffs on foreign dairy, Canadians may have limited access to foreign cheeses and other dairy products in local stores.

Recent Developments and Trade Tensions

Under CUSMA, Canada committed to providing greater access to U.S. dairy exports through 14 U.S.-specific tariff-rate quotas (TRQs). However, the United States has launched multiple disputes claiming Canada is intentionally bottlenecking U.S. imports through these TRQs.

A USMCA dispute panel sided with Canada in the latest tiff over market access in 2023, leading to disappointment from the U.S. Dairy Export Council.

To provide insights into trade dynamics, the following table presents information on the import volumes and fill rates for select dairy products under CUSMA for the 2023/24 dairy year.

Product	Import Volume	Fill Rate
Cheese	5,457 tonnes	52.5%
Fluid Milk	13,697 tonnes	32.9%
Cream	4,465 tonnes	51.0%
Butter	3,048 tonnes	81.3%
Milk Powder	327 tonnes	56.9%

Source: Global Affairs Canada

This table illustrates the current state of dairy imports under CUSMA, showing that while some products like butter have high fill rates, others like fluid milk are significantly under their quota. This data provides context for the ongoing trade tensions and the potential for increased U.S. dairy exports to Canada.

Looking Ahead

As tensions rise, American and Canadian dairy farmers are at a crossroads. The coming months are poised to witness intense negotiations and debates as both countries grapple urgently with key issues such as tariff rates, market access, and dairy product quotas in the future of the dairy trade. With the CUSMA review set for 2026 and Trump’s aggressive stance on trade, the dairy industry on both sides of the border faces an uncertain future.

The battle over Canada’s dairy system extends beyond milk. It encompasses a significant struggle over trade, livelihoods, and the future of farming industries, reflecting a multifaceted challenge. As negotiations progress, it will be paramount for both nations to navigate the delicate task of balancing safeguarding domestic industries, ensuring fair competition for local producers, and promoting equitable international trade agreements that benefit all stakeholders involved.

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Categories : Politics

Tags : Canada tariffs, CUSMA negotiations, dairy trade, Supply Management, Trump

Rollins Takes Helm at USDA, Vows to Slash $45B Ag Trade Deficit and Champion Conservative Values

Thursday, February 13th, 2025

Brooke Rollins takes charge at USDA, vowing to slash the $45B ag trade deficit and champion conservative values. With plans to boost dairy exports, tackle labor shortages, and streamline regulations, Rollins aims to revitalize American agriculture. How will her market-driven approach impact your farm? Read on for expert insights and industry reactions.

Summary:

Brooke Rollins, the newly confirmed U.S. Agriculture Secretary, is determined to reduce the $45 billion agricultural trade deficit through a market-driven strategy. She aims to revitalize the farm sector by increasing dairy exports and streamlining regulations. Rollins plans to update the Federal Milk Marketing Order system and shape the next Farm Bill to support dairy farmers. She seeks to balance economic growth and sustainability while addressing labor shortages through conservative immigration practices. However, small dairy farms may need extra support to adapt to these changes and compete globally.

Key Takeaways:

Brooke Rollins, confirmed as the new U.S. Agriculture Secretary, is committed to reducing the $45 billion agricultural trade deficit and supporting conservative agricultural values.
Her strategy involves boosting dairy exports, addressing labor shortages while ensuring border security, and implementing market-driven policies.
Rollins aims to eliminate excessive regulations to foster innovation and efficiency in the agricultural sector.
She plans to modernize the Federal Milk Marketing Order system for fairer pricing and compensation for dairy farmers.
Rollins emphasizes supporting sustainable practices while balancing economic growth, aiming to help U.S. dairy compete globally.
Discussions on the upcoming Farm Bill will focus on risk management and fiscal responsibility to support farmers without fostering dependency on government aid.
Rollins encourages leveraging existing trade agreements while pursuing new international deals to enhance the U.S. dairy market presence.
Local dairy farms might face challenges adapting to global trends, with smaller operations potentially requiring additional support.

Brooke Rollins, USDA, agricultural trade deficit, dairy exports, market-driven policies

Brooke Rollins, confirmed as the 33rd U.S. Agriculture Secretary, pledges to boost dairy exports, tackle labor shortages, and advance market-driven agricultural policies.

Conservative Leadership for American Agriculture

Rollins, a staunch conservative with a track record of promoting free-market policies, brings her experience as Trump’s domestic policy chief to the USDA. “My goal is to empower our farmers and ranchers through reduced regulation and expanded market opportunities,” Rollins stated during her swearing-in ceremony.

Senator John Thune (R-SD) praised the appointment: “Secretary Rollins understands the challenges facing rural America and has the conservative principles needed to revitalize our agricultural sector.”

Tackling the Trade Deficit Head-On

Rollins aims to aggressively expand export opportunities, offering hope to dairy farmers grappling with market access issues. During her first press conference, she asserted, “We’re not just looking to maintain our market share; we’re aiming to grow it significantly. ”

Jim Mulhern, President and CEO of the National Milk Producers Federation, expressed support: “Secretary Rollins’ focus on trade is crucial for our industry. We look forward to working with her to increase dairy exports and level the playing field for American producers.”

To understand the current state of U.S. dairy exports, consider the following data from 2024:

Metric	Value
Total Export Value	$8.22 billion
Total Volume	2.65 million metric tons
3-Year Average	$8.59 billion
Compound Average Growth (2015-2024)	4.6%

The top export markets for U.S. dairy products in 2024 were:

Here are the top export markets for U.S. dairy products in 2024 and their total values:

Market	Total Value (USD)
Mexico	$2.47 billion
Canada	$1.14 billion
China	$584 million
Japan	$394.61 million
South Korea	$385.66 million
Philippines	$364.98 million
Indonesia	$244.83 million
Australia	$173.87 million
European Union	$167.14 million
Dominican Republic	$134.7 million

Addressing the Labor Crunch with Border Security in Mind

Recognizing the dairy industry‘s unique labor demands, Rollins is developing solutions that balance conservative immigration principles with agricultural needs. “We’re streamlining the H-2A visa process for year-round workers while maintaining strong border security,” she explains.

Mike McCloskey, dairy farmer and CEO of Select Milk Producers, welcomes this approach: “Secretary Rollins understands that we need a reliable workforce without compromising our nation’s security. It’s a delicate balance but crucial for our industry.”

Streamlining Operations Through Smart Deregulation

Rollins’ plan to eliminate “burdensome regulations” aims to unleash the potential of dairy farms. “We’re identifying and removing obstacles that hinder innovation and growth,” she stated. Specific targets include simplifying environmental compliance procedures and reducing small and medium-sized dairy operations paperwork.

Michael Dykes, President and CEO of the International Dairy Foods Association, supports this initiative: “Reducing regulatory burdens will allow our members to innovate and compete more effectively in the global marketplace.”

Rollins emphasized a data-driven approach to ensuring food safety: “We’ll use rigorous scientific analysis to determine which regulations are essential for public health and which are simply bureaucratic overreach.”

Building on this trend, how will Rollins’ deregulation efforts impact your farm’s operations?

Modernizing Federal Milk Marketing Orders

Addressing a key concern for dairy farmers, Rollins has pledged to overhaul the Federal Milk Marketing Order system. “We need a pricing system that reflects current market realities and ensures fair compensation for our hardworking dairy farmers,” Rollins stated.

The National Dairy Farmers Assurance Program reports that 68% of dairy farmers surveyed support a comprehensive review of the FMMO system.

What specific changes to the FMMO system would most benefit your operation?

Balancing Growth and Sustainability Through Market-Driven Solutions

While prioritizing economic growth, Rollins plans to incentivize sustainable practices without imposing burdensome regulations. “American dairy farmers are innovators, and we’ll support their efforts to reduce emissions while maintaining profitability,” she emphasized.

The National Dairy Farm Program reports that 32% of U.S. dairy farms have implemented energy efficiency measures, highlighting the industry’s proactive approach to sustainability.

Shaping the Next Farm Bill

Rollins has already begun discussing the upcoming Farm Bill, emphasizing the need for programs that support dairy farmers while promoting fiscal responsibility. “We’ll be pushing for risk management tools that work for farms of all sizes without creating dependency on government subsidies,” she stated.

Global Competitiveness in a Changing Landscape

Rollins is positioning American dairy to compete globally as the U.S. tackles its agricultural trade deficit. The EU’s European Dairy Association reports a 5% increase in export volumes last quarter, underscoring the need for aggressive market expansion.

Rollins plans to leverage existing trade agreements like USMCA while pursuing new deals to expand market access for U.S. dairy products. “Our goal is to make ‘Made in America’ the gold standard for dairy products worldwide,” she declared.

Given these developments, how is your operation preparing to compete in the global marketplace?

Local Impact vs. Global Trends

While Rollins’ policies aim to boost U.S. dairy exports globally, local dairy farmers may face challenges adapting to new market dynamics. The USDA reports that small family-owned dairy farms (less than 200 cows) account for 75% of all U.S. dairy farms but only 10% of total milk production. Like a rising tide, Rollins’ approach aims to lift all boats – but smaller operations may need additional support to stay afloat in the global market.

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Categories : Politics

Tags : agricultural trade deficit, Brooke Rollins, dairy exports, market-driven policies, USDA

Bipartisan Bill Aims to Protect Farm Assets in Student Aid Calculations

Wednesday, February 12th, 2025

The bipartisan bill aims to protect farm assets in student aid calculations. The Family Farm and Small Business Exemption Act seeks to restore exemptions for farmland and equipment from FAFSA forms. With 79 co-sponsors, the bill addresses concerns about recent changes that disadvantage farm families. How might this impact your future?

Summary:

The Family Farm and Small Business Exemption Act, introduced on February 7, 2025, aims to change recent FAFSA rules that count farm and small business assets when deciding federal student aid. Co-sponsored by 79 lawmakers, this bipartisan bill wants to keep farmland, machinery, and small business assets off the FAFSA form. This is important for farm families that have faced income drops since 2022, helping them access student aid without selling essential items. Many groups, like the American Farm Bureau Federation, support this, but there are concerns about fairness in federal assistance. Regions like Wisconsin, which is strong in agriculture, could benefit as it lessens financial worry when seeking higher education.

Key Takeaways:

Legislation was introduced to prevent farm and small business assets from affecting FAFSA calculations.
The bill is supported by a bipartisan group of 79 co-sponsors, showing strong political backing.
Highlights financial hardships farm families face, emphasizing the nearly 25% drop in net farm income since 2022.
The act aims to provide financial relief and protect essential farm assets from being considered liquid resources.
Intended to facilitate generational continuity in farming by improving educational access for farm-family students.
Widely endorsed by agricultural organizations, reflecting broad industry support.
Some educational experts caution about the risks of potential inequities in the federal aid system.
Impacts on Wisconsin’s dairy industry are projected to be significant, given the state’s sizable dairy operations.

farm assets exemption, FAFSA changes, bipartisan support, student aid calculations, agricultural impact — Happy family of father, mother and teenage son in workwear walking along aisle between large paddocks with livestock in front of camera

Farm and small business assets should be exempt from declaration on the Free Application for Federal Student Aid, FAFSA for short,” declared Senator Chuck Grassley (R-IA), highlighting the core issue addressed by the newly introduced Family Farm and Small Business Exemption Act.

On February 7, 2025, a bipartisan group of lawmakers introduced legislation in both chambers of Congress to safeguard farm families‘ interests in federal student aid determinations. The bill aims to restore long-standing exemptions that prevent farm and small business assets from being counted as part of a family’s net worth when calculating eligibility for federal student aid.

Key Provisions and Support

The legislation seeks to amend the FAFSA Simplification Act by exempting farmland, machinery, operational materials, and small businesses with fewer than 100 employees from being declared on the Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) form. This move responds to changes implemented in July 2024 that altered how federal student aid is calculated, potentially disadvantaging farm families and small business owners.

In the House, the bill is led by Representatives Tracey Mann (R-KS) and Jimmy Panetta (D-CA), with support from House Agriculture Committee leaders. The Senate version is sponsored by Senators Joni Ernst (R-IA) and Michael Bennet (D-CO). The bill has garnered significant bipartisan support with 79 co-sponsors in the House, including Representative Mike Kelly (R-PA).

Impact on Farm Families

For farm families, this legislation addresses several critical concerns:

Financial Relief: Rep. Mann highlighted that net farm income has decreased by nearly 25% since 2022, making it challenging for these families to manage rising costs. The exemption would provide much-needed relief for farm families seeking higher education opportunities.
Asset Protection: The bill recognizes that farm assets, while valuable, are essential for business operations and should not be considered liquid resources for student aid calculations.
Generational Continuity: By making higher education more accessible to farm families, the bill supports the continuity of farming knowledge and skills, ensuring the next generation can pursue education without jeopardizing the family farm’s future.

Industry Perspective

The legislation has received support from various agricultural and educational organizations, including the American Farm Bureau Federation, the National Milk Producers Federation, and the Association of Public & Land-Grant Universities.

Jim Mulhern, President and CEO of the National Milk Producers Federation, stated on February 10, 2025, “This legislation is crucial for the future of our dairy industry. It ensures that the next generation of dairy farmers can pursue higher education without jeopardizing their family’s livelihood.”

However, some education policy experts have raised concerns. Dr. Robert Kelchen, Professor of Higher Education at the University of Tennessee, noted on February 12, 2025, “While the intent is good, we must ensure that this exemption doesn’t create unintended inequities in the federal aid system.”

Regional Impact

In Wisconsin, America’s Dairyland, the bill could have significant implications. As of January 2025, the state had 6,317 dairy herds, according to the Wisconsin Department of Agriculture, Trade, and Consumer Protection. Many of these family-owned operations could benefit from the proposed legislation.

Next Steps for Farm Families

Stay informed about the bill’s progress through industry publications and your representatives’ communications.
Contact your local representatives to express your views on this legislation.
Discuss potential impacts with your financial advisor to prepare for changes in student aid calculations.

Data Table: Net Farm Income Trends

Year	Net Farm Income (Billion USD)	Percentage Change
2022	183.0	–
2023	156.2	-14.6%
2024	137.8	-11.8%

Source: USDA Economic Research Service, February 2025 Farm Income Forecast

How would this bill affect your farm operation’s plans for the future? Share your thoughts in the comments section below.

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Categories : Politics

Tags : bipartisan support, FAFSA changes, farm assets exemption, student aid calculations

Steel Tariffs Drive 15% Spike in Dairy Equipment Costs, Threatening Exports

Tuesday, February 11th, 2025

Trump’s steel tariffs are set to drive a 15% spike in dairy equipment costs. CME data shows that small farms face $150K+ increases, while milk prices could drop $1.30/cwt. See how operations across North America adapt.

Summary:

The upcoming 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum are set to impact dairy farmers across North America significantly. Dairy operations will face higher costs for essential equipment, potentially increasing financial strain by up to $300,000 for small farms. Milk prices might drop by $1.30 per hundredweight, with feed costs rising 8% due to transportation impacts. However, experts warn that the tariffs could still create lasting challenges for the U.S. and Canadian dairy industries. Farmers must act smart by considering equipment leasing, exploring new markets, and seeking government support to stay competitive.

Key Takeaways:

Tariffs on steel and aluminum will burden dairy farmers with significant cost increases for vital equipment.
Small farms could see financial strain soar up to $300,000 due to these tariff-induced price hikes.
Milk prices risk declining by $1.30 per hundredweight, adding pressure to farms’ financial outlooks.
Staying competitive requires exploring leasing options, tapping into new markets, and leveraging available government support.

Steel tariffs could significantly impact the cost of essential dairy equipment like this modern milking system.

The latest CME data (02/11/2025 12:13 PM EST) shows that Trump’s 25% steel tariffs, effective March 4, will eliminate country exemptions and drive double-digit increases in dairy equipment costs, impacting global farm operations.

Market Impact Analysis

“This is big trouble,” warns Peter Warrian, the University of Toronto steel expert. “When you get to the border, whatever the value of your order is, you’ll have to have 25 percent more in cash, in advance, to get across”.

Current CME futures data (02/11/2025) reveals equipment cost projections:

Equipment Type	Current Cost	Projected Increase	Q2 2025 Impact	Labor Cost Impact
Milking Systems	$125,000	10-15%	$143,750	+$2,500/year
Storage Tanks	$85,000	8-12%	$95,200	+$1,800/year
Cooling Systems	$65,000	7-10%	$71,500	+$1,500/year

Farm-level Financial Impact by Operation Size

“Steel prices are going to go up, and by a lot,” says New York-based steel analyst Chuck Bradford. “The data presented to Trump by the Department of Commerce was incompetent”.

USDA data cross-referenced with CME futures shows:

Operation Size	Equipment Cost Impact	Feed Cost Impact	Labor Cost Impact
Small (50-200 cows)	+$150,000-300,000	+8%	+$5,000/year
Medium (201-1000 cows)	+$300,000-750,000	+6%	+$15,000/year
Large (1000+ cows)	+$750,000+	+4%	+$25,000/year

Regional FMMO Impacts

Catherine Cobden, CEO of the Canadian Steel Producers Association, warns: “When Trump implemented tariffs on Canadian steel in 2018, massive disruptions hurt both Canada and the U.S.”.

Current Federal Milk Marketing Order data shows:

FMMO Region	Projected Price Impact	Feed Cost Ratio
Northeast (Order 1)	-$1.45/cwt	2.1
Upper Midwest (Order 30)	-$1.30/cwt	2.3
California (Order 51)	-$1.25/cwt	2.0
Pacific Northwest (Order 124)	-$1.35/cwt	2.2

Global Trade Implications

USDA Foreign Agricultural Service data (02/11/2025) shows:

Mexico imports: $1.4b annually
EU market share increase: 15% since January 2025
Asia-Pacific market disruption: 12% projected

Market Activity and Trading Volume

CME Group trading data shows current agricultural futures average daily notional value:

Asset Class	Daily Trading Value (USD)
Agriculture	73.7 billion
Energy	196.2 billion
Metals	121.7 billion

Government Support Programs

$500m emergency equipment purchase program
Export market development grants
FMMO price support mechanisms

Market Projections

CME dairy futures (02/11/2025 12:13 PM EST) indicate:

Class III milk: -8% by Q3 2025
Feed costs: +8% through 2025
Equipment financing rates: +2% by Q4 2025

Conclusion: Navigating the Steel Tariff Storm

As dairy operations face this unprecedented combination of equipment cost increases and market pressures, strategic planning becomes crucial. CME futures data from today (02/11/2025 12:16 PM EST) suggests these impacts will persist through Q4 2025, requiring both immediate action and long-term adaptation.

Review equipment replacement schedules before March 4 implementation
Explore USDA’s $500M emergency purchase program eligibility
Consider hedging strategies given CME’s robust agricultural trading volume
Monitor FMMO price support mechanisms for regional opportunities

The upcoming USMCA review in 2026 may provide relief, but operations must focus on immediate sustainability. Whether managing a 200-cow family farm or a 2,000-cow operation, success will depend on proactive cost management and strategic market positioning.

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Categories : Politics

Tags : dairy equipment costs, milk price impact, steel tariffs, USDA support program

USMCA Termination Countdown: Will Your Farm Survive The North American Trade War?

Friday, February 7th, 2025

July 1, 2026, isn’t just a date—it’s D-Day for dairy. With 25% tariffs shredding $1.2B in trade and corporate giants devouring family farms, North America’s milk producers face extinction. Adapt like a tech pirate, lobby like hell, or start pricing U-Hauls. The apocalypse won’t negotiate. Will you?

<a href="https://rss.com/podcasts/the-bullvine/1885653">E160 USMCA Termination Countdown: Will Your Farm Survive The North American Trade War?</a>

On July 1, 2026, the USMCA review isn’t just another bureaucratic checkbox—it’s a ticking time bomb primed to obliterate 30 years of dairy trade lifelines. While Trump’s Commerce Department sharpens its tariff guillotine and Canada digs trenches around its sacred supply management cash cow, family farms on both sides of the 49th parallel are caught in the crossfire.

Wake up and smell the sour milk. This isn’t a distant political event—it risks your livelihood. Every day you’re not preparing is another nail in your farm’s coffin.

The harsh reality is that most operations won’t survive this trade war tsunami. But there’s a narrow path through the coming carnage for those willing to fight tooth and nail and emerge stronger. Get ready because we’re about to uncover the hidden problems in the North American dairy industry. Your grandfather’s farming playbook won’t cut it anymore. It’s adapt or die time, and the clock is running out.

This ain’t your grandpa’s NAFTA fight – it’s an extinction-level event for North American dairy. Here’s how to avoid the risks.

Wisconsin’s 255-cow farms face 40% butter profit losses—while mega-dairies exploit tariff chaos.

THE BUTTER BLOODBATH: YOUR CREAM CHECKS ARE UNDER FIRE

Metric	U.S. to Canada (2023)	Canada to U.S. (2023)
Total Dairy Exports	$1.09B	$293.3M
Butter Exports	$118.9M	$47.2M
Cheese Exports	$619M	$89.1M

Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, StatsCan 2024

Let’s address this directly: The dairy trade conflict threatens to reduce your profits rapidly. When Washington dropped its 25% tariff bomb on Canadian dairy on February 1st, Ottawa didn’t just roll over—they nuked back with $30 billion in retaliatory strikes—buried in that steaming pile? The $1.2 billion dairy lifeline keeps small farms on life support.

Here’s the raw milk reality scorching both sides of the 49th parallel, painting a stark picture of how

Wisconsin’s 250-cow legacy farms are staring down a 40% butter profit wipeout if Canada slams its gates. That’s not a haircut; it’s a decapitation.
Quebec’s tech-savvy barns? They’re bracing for tidal waves of cheap milk from California’s 5,000-head corporate goliaths. It’s David vs. Dairy Godzilla and Goliath’s packing robotic milkers.
Meanwhile, Mexico’s playing both sides like a fiddle—quietly rerouting 17% of its cheese imports to the EU while we’re busy shooting ourselves in the udder.

“This isn’t about fair trade,” snarls a Montana co-op boss, his voice dripping with disgust. “It’s about which side bleeds out first—your family farm or some conglomerate’s quarterly report.”

Wake up and smell the sour milk, folks. This trade tango is about to turn into a slaughterhouse square dance, and small farms are looking like the main course.

SUPPLY MANAGEMENT VS. CORPORATE GREED: WHO WINS?

Let’s rip the band-aid off this festering wound. While Washington screams about Canada’s quota system locking down 96.4% of their dairy market, it’s conveniently ignoring the corporate carnage in their backyard. Here’s the gut-punch reality: the real enemy isn’t some maple-leaf-waving bureaucrat in Ottawa – it’s the mega-dairy massacre happening right under your nose. While family farms bleed out, corporate giants are getting fat on your misery.

Over 60% of U.S. milk is controlled by large-scale operations with more than 2,000 cows. At the same time, the top three processors have their fingers wrapped around 90% of the bottling pipeline like a corporate python squeezing its prey. “Every tariff dollar that supposedly ‘protects’ American dairy ends up in corporate feedlot coffers,” spits a Wisconsin farmer, watching his third-generation legacy circle the drain. “They’re not fighting Canada – they’re finishing what they started with family farms.”

And those small operators? They are not just failing – they are facing severe challenges. Take Pennsylvania’s 72-cow heritage farms, where proud family legacies are being ground into hamburgers by Wall Street’s meat grinder. These aren’t just statistics – they’re death notices: 18% feed cost spikes when Dean Foods tightens its monopolistic chokehold, $3,200 monthly losses as mega-dairies flood the market with surplus milk like a dairy drowning pool.

Jodey Nurse, McGill Institute for the Study of Canada, said Canadian farmers would struggle to survive if supply management were scrapped. “We would be flooded with dairy products, egg products and poultry products from the United States and elsewhere,” she said. “And I do think that there’s just no way that the Canadian producers would be able to compete.”

This isn’t a trade war – it’s a corporate coup. And while politicians grandstand about foreign quotas, the pound sells America’s dairy heritage to the highest bidder. Wake up and smell the sour milk, folks. Your real enemy isn’t wearing a maple leaf – it’s wearing a Brooks Brothers suit and calculating your farm’s funeral costs on a Goldman Sachs spreadsheet.

Scenario	U.S. Dairy Losses	Canadian Surplus	Consumer Cost Increase
25% Tariffs	$1.5b	8% Milk Surplus	$1,300/Household
USMCA Termination	$36.9b (ag-wide)	5% Food Inflation	N/A
Renegotiation	$0.08/cwt Drop	3.59% TRQ Hold	$9/lb Butter

Source: Bank of Canada 2025 Projections, USDA

UPGRADE YOUR PARLOR TECH OR START PRICING U-HAULS” – SURVIVING THE DAIRY APOCALYPSE

This isn’t a subtle warning – it’s a clear alert from a Cornell nutritionist observing 25% tariffs drastically reducing milk prices. While traditional farms collapse under a $1.70/cwt price crash, the rebels rewriting the playbook aren’t just scraping by—they’re dominating by torching the rulebook. In Québec’s robotic barns, farmers are diverting 15% of milk flow into on-farm yogurt vats, bypassing processors entirely. “Why sell raw milk for pennies when hipsters pay $8 a jar for probiotic gold?” growls a Saint-Hyacinthe operator, his QR-coded products now staples in Montréal’s trendiest cafés. Out west, California’s mega-dairies aren’t begging for tariff relief—they’re deploying AI sensors to predict Tijuana’s midnight mozzarella cravings, timing cheese production like Wall Street day traders.

Meanwhile, New Zealand’s grass-grazing mavericks are capitalizing on the chaos, shipping “tariff-free” whey protein to fitness enthusiasts in Texas. “Your trade war benefits us greatly,” laughs a Kiwi exporter banking $22M while Washington and Ottawa conflict. But the real secret weapon? Feed efficiency. A lone nutritionist’s mantra cuts through the desperation: “Every 1% gain in feed efficiency cancels 3% tariff pain.” Translation: farmers hoarding bypass protein and methane-digested TMRs aren’t nerds—they’re the new titans of the milk apocalypse.

This isn’t your grandad’s downturn—it’s a bare-knuckled brawl where survival favors the swift, the sly, and the ruthless. Adapt like a Québec tech pirate, hustle like a Cali data shark, or start measuring your barn for U-Hauls. The clock’s ticking, and sentimentality won’t save your herd.

THE INVISIBLE ARMY: OVER HALF OF U.S. MILK FLOWS THROUGH IMMIGRANT HANDS

62% of U.S. milk flows through immigrant hands. Deportations = $32B economic bomb.

Factor	U.S. Impact	Canadian Impact
Immigrant Labor Share	Over 50% of all milk flows through Immigrant workers	38% processing jobs
Jobs at Risk	12,000+	2,500+
Wage Pressure	+15% (CA mega-dairies)	+9% (QC farms)
Source: Farmworker Justice 2025, UC Davis Ag Extension

Let’s get to the point: while Washington discusses border walls, 62% of America’s milk supply is handled by immigrant workers, many of whom are undocumented. These aren’t faceless statistics; they’re the backbone of your morning latte and cheese platter. But here’s the kicker nobody in DC wants to admit: deport these workers, and 12,000+ processing jobs vanish overnight. We’re not talking about minor disruptions—this is a full-blown collapse of the dairy-industrial complex. The math is brutal: no workers = no milk trucks = empty grocery aisles. Yet politicians keep playing Russian roulette with those who keep dairy margins above water.

Mexico’s revenge: audits, not amnesty

Meanwhile, south of the border, Mexico is flexing new muscles. Tired of being America’s labor punchline, they’re threatening to audit U.S. labor camps—the same ones that house workers milking 79% of our national herd. Picture ICE-style raids exposing rat-infested trailers and wage theft… while Wisconsin processors scramble to explain why their $8/gallon milk relies on $18/hour workers living in squalor. It’s not virtue signaling—it’s economic warfare. Mexico knows dairy’s dirty secret: without their citizens, U.S. milk prices skyrocket by 90% (USDA 2025). So they’re weaponizing labor conditions, turning migrant rights into a trade bargaining chip.

The cow-shaped elephant in the room

This isn’t only a matter of ethics—it’s about survival. Many operations have already lost $3,200 per month trying to replace missing workers, leading to significant financial strain for many operations. Meanwhile, mega-dairies hide behind “help wanted” signs while lobbying against visa reforms. The result? A $32 billion economic time bomb(Farmworker Justice 2025) ticks louder than a bulk tank alarm. So next time you sip that latte, ask yourself: why are we crucifying the hands that feed us? And who’ll milk the cows when the last undocumented workers are hauled off in an ICE van? Spoiler: I’m not your local ag college grad.

2026 ENDGAME: THREE NUCLEAR OPTIONS

Three nuclear options loom – and no one escapes unscathed. Here’s the brutal breakdown of winners and casualties in each scenario.

1. Renegotiation Theater: Expanded U.S. TRQs (Canada Laughs)

The Play: U.S. demands 6% market access; Canada offers 0.5%. Talks drag until 2028.

Winners:

Corporate Giants: Major processors score minor export boosts while crushing small U.S. dairies with oversupply.
Canadian Processors: Keep 92% quota control, laughing to the creamery.
Mexican Middlemen: Profit from loopholes in “Made in North America” cheese rules.

Casualties:

Small-Scale Operators: 255-cow Wisconsin farms drown in 8¢/cwt price drops.
Tech-Savvy Farms: Québec’s robotic operations face U.S. surplus dumping.
Consumers: Butter hits $9/lb as supply chains balkanize.

“We’ll repackage Wisconsin cheddar as ‘Artisanal Ontario Gold,'” jokes a Toronto broker.

2. Termination Trauma: Annual Reviews Until 2036 Collapse

The Play: No 2026 deal triggers decade-long uncertainty, killing long-term investments.

Winners:

Trade Lawyers: Billable hours skyrocket 300%, interpreting annual rule changes.
China/EU: Steal 19% of Mexico’s dairy imports by 2027.
Mega-Dairies: Exploit regulatory gaps to slash labor/environment costs.

Casualties:

Show Herds: 72-cow PA operations can’t secure loans amid chaos.
Integrated Supply Chains: Cheese plants idle as border checks triple.
Workers: 28,000+ jobs vaporize in processing/transport sectors.

“Termination isn’t an event – it’s a slow bleed,” warns a bankrupt Iowa cheesemaker.

3. Tariff Armageddon: $200B GDP Loss by 2028 (Bank of Canada’s Nightmare)

The Play: 25% tariffs lock-in, fracturing North America into warring trade blocs.

Winners:

NZ’s Grass Bandits: Kiwi exporters’ whey shipments to Texas surge 37%.
EU Butter Barons: Replace Canada as U.S. restaurants’ #1 supplier.
Survivalists: Bunkers selling $50/gallon “prepper milk” thrive.

Casualties:

California’s Mega-Dairies: 18% herd liquidations as Mexico blocks wastewater hay.
Food Security: USDA rations cheese to food banks amid 14-month shortages.
Rural Towns: Wisconsin/Québec counties see 22% population collapse.

“We’ll milk cockroaches before buying Yankee butter,” quips an Alberta nationalist.

The Cold Equation:

Renegotiation = Corporate feast, family farm famine
Termination = Lawyer bonanza, worker apocalypse
Tariffs = Global vultures feast, North America starves

Scenario	Who Wins	Who Loses
Renegotiation Theater	Corporate Giants, Canadian Processors, Mexican Middlemen	Small-Scale Operators, Tech-Savvy Farms, Consumers
Termination Trauma	Trade Lawyers, China/EU, Mega-Dairies	Small Herds, Integrated Supply Chains, Workers
Tariff Armageddon	NZ’s Grass Bandits, EU Butter Barons, Survivalists	California’s Mega-Dairies, Food Security, Rural Towns

“Make your decision,” a D.C. insider warns. “There are no clear victories—just different levels of destruction.”

YOUR MOVE – NO BULL

July 2026 isn’t a deadline—it’s doomsday for cross-border dairy, a looming catastrophe that demands immediate action. Here’s how to avoid extinction.

1. U.S. Farmers: Ditch Butter, Deploy Drones, or Drown

Pivot markets like your life depends on it:

Abandon Canada’s 42% butter addiction: To diversify market opportunities, redirect 30% of exports to Mexico’s bakery boom (with 18% projected growth) and Indonesia’s middle class.
Outsmart EU tariffs: Ship “feta-style” crumbles—Greek imports dropped 22% in 2024, demonstrating the effectiveness of this approach.

Tech up or tap out

Robotic milkers slash 22% labor costs (Lely T10 system data).
Predictive dashboards sync CME futures to dodge price crashes.
Methane digesters convert manure to carbon cash—offset 12% tariff losses.

Lobby like hell

Dairy PACs were outspent 35:1 by Big Tech in 2024. Storm swing districts with “tractor brigades”—Wisconsin ops spiked milk prices by $0.19/cwt last month.
Hire ex-trade sharks ($500/hr) to craft survival blueprints.

Armageddon prep

If USMCA dies: Partner with NZ/EU giants (Fonterra’s 18-month feed hedges).
Convert 10% herd to beef crosses—Angus X Holstein premiums hit $4.15/cwt.

“Your customers are in Hanoi now, not Green Bay.” – Singapore dairy broker

2. Canadian Farms: Flood Local Markets, Fleece Tourists, or Fail Dominate home turf

Artisanal cheese premiums: Loblaws pays 15% extra for small-batch brie under 2025’s “Local Dairy Guarantee.”
Tourist traps: Sell “agri-experiences” to 27M annual US border crossers.

Asia or bust

Vietnam’s yogurt craze: Demand spiked 37% last quarter—faster ROI than waiting out US tariffs.
Dump surplus milk powder into Indonesia’s $8B bakery sector.

Tech survival kit

Québec’s carbon cowboys bank $100K/year via methane credits.
Precision irrigation slashes drought costs by 40% (UC Davis data).

Ottawa offensive

Demand TRQ transparency—storm AAFC offices for real-time quota data.
Stockpile antibiotics: 2025 shortages loom for 6M Canadian calves.

When (not if) tariffs hit

Code Red: Sell heifers >3 lactations now if 25% tariffs lock in.
Code Black: Partner with Brazil for tariff-free whey if Mexico joins the EU.

“Supply management won’t save you when Wisconsin dumps milk at $1.70/cwt,” warning of the limitations of existing protective measures and the need for adaptation.

THE BOTTOM LINE

Time is running out for the USMCA review in July 2026—a pivotal moment for North America’s dairy industry. With 25% tariffs threatening to shred $1.2B in trade and Canada’s supply management fortress under fire, farmers face extinction unless they pivot fast. U.S. operators risk 40% butter profit bloodbaths if Canada slams its gates, while Canadian producers drown in 8% milk surpluses and carbon fines. Mexico’s quiet shift to EU cheese imports and AI-driven tariff predictions could flatline entire supply chains overnight.

This isn’t about playing fair—it’s a bare-knuckle brawl against mega-dairies, algorithmic traders, and global vultures. The 2026 review isn’t salvation—it’s the starter pistol. “Farms will die. Will yours?” The crisis won’t delay. What will you do?

Key Takeaways:

The USMCA’s first mandatory review in 2026 could significantly impact cross-border dairy trade between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico.
U.S. dairy farmers face threats from tariffs, increasing competition, and market shifts towards the EU for cheese imports by Mexico.
Canada’s supply management system is contentious, leading to trade tensions with the U.S. while favoring large-scale American dairy operators over small farms.
Technological advancements and precision farming are crucial for surviving tariff impacts and environmental challenges.
The role of immigrants in the U.S. dairy industry is substantial; threats to this labor force pose serious risks to production and profitability.
Several potential outcomes exist for the USMCA review, with implications for economic stability and strategic trade relationships in North America.
Farmers must adapt by diversifying markets, advocating more politically, and preparing for shifts in herd management to withstand potential trade disruptions.
Embracing sustainability and technological innovation may offer competitive advantages amidst ongoing trade and climate challenges.

Summary:

The 2026 USMCA review could seriously impact North American dairy farmers by disrupting trade. U.S. tariffs on Canadian imports have already hurt the $1.2 billion dairy trade, with small farms at risk while large companies have more ways to cope. Wisconsin’s smaller farms may lose a big chunk of profits, while large Californian dairies use tech to get by. Canada uses methane credits to offset losses, and Mexico shifts cheese imports to Europe. With over half of U.S. milk relying on immigrant labor and jobs in danger, farmers must adapt quickly—using new tech and intense lobbying—or face being squeezed out by more prominent players.

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Categories : Politics

Tags : dairy trade, family farms survival, tariffs impact, USMCA review

30-Day Tariff Truce: Strategic Breathing Room for North American Dairy

Tuesday, February 4th, 2025

Breaking: North American dairy farms get a 30-day lifeline as U.S.-Canada postpones devastating 25% tariffs. The clock is ticking with $1.2 billion in cross-border trade at stake and farms facing 40% income drops. Get the action plan to save your operation before the March 4 deadline.

Summary:

The recent 30-day delay in the 25% dairy tariffs gives North American dairy farmers a short break as the U.S. and Canada discuss security and trafficking issues. This pause protects $1.2 billion in trade, offering farmers breathing space. However, the $85 million aid from the USDA only helps with a small part of potential losses. Farmers must focus on stabilizing their operations, such as managing feed costs, securing milk futures, and finding new market opportunities, to prepare for what might happen after March 4.

Key Takeaways:

The U.S. and Canada have negotiated a 30-day delay on 25% dairy tariffs, offering temporary relief to the cross-border dairy trade valued at $1.2 billion annually.
The USDA’s relief package of $85 million is inadequate, covering just 7% of the anticipated losses for affected farms.
Farmers are advised to strategically manage costs and secure commodity contracts during this tariff truce period.
Expert opinion emphasizes optimizing operational efficiency to mitigate tariff impacts.
The truce aims to provide strategic breathing space for North American dairy markets, emphasizing the need for supply chain adaptability and risk management.
Projections show a 25% decrease in annual trade if tariffs are implemented, with consumer costs potentially rising by $1,300 per household.

From border crisis to barn emergency: dairy farms get 30-day lifeline A last-minute deal between the U.S. and Canada has postponed the harmful 25% dairy tariffs until March 4, safeguarding $1.2 billion in cross-border trade. The temporary agreement comes as some dairy farmers face potential income drops of 40% if tariffs take effect.

How We Got Here

The crisis unfolded in multiple stages driven by serious concerns about fentanyl trafficking and border security:

Initial Trigger

President Trump issued orders for 25% tariffs on Canadian imports (with energy at 10%) after U.S. Customs and Border Protection confiscated about 19 kilograms of fentanyl at the Canadian border in 2024. While this amount was significantly less than Mexican border seizures, officials emphasized that even small quantities of fentanyl could potentially kill millions of Americans.

Border Security Concerns

Intelligence reports identified growing concerns about the following:

Mexican cartels operating fentanyl and netizen synthesis labs in Canada
Canada’s heightened domestic production of fentanyl, particularly in British Columbia
Criminal networks involved in human trafficking and smuggling operations across the northern border

Canadian Response and Breakthroughs

Canada’s countermeasures included:

A comprehensive $1.3 billion border enhancement plan featuring new helicopters, surveillance technology, and additional personnel
Commitment to designate Mexican drug cartels as terrorist organizations
Appointment of a “fentanyl czar”
Creation of a joint Canada-U.S. task force to combat organized crime

Measurable Results

Recent Canadian border security initiatives have already demonstrated a significant impact:

89% reduction in illegal U.S. crossings from June to December
Deployment of 60 new surveillance drones along the U.S. border
Implementation of advanced chemical detection systems at entry points

This multifaceted response to complex security challenges ultimately led to the 30-day tariff pause, which indicates progress despite the uncertain long-term resolution.

Real Impact on Farm Operations

U.S. butter exports to Canada total $118.91 million, and Canadian cheese exports of 83,800 metric tons are at risk. “This isn’t just about trade numbers—it’s about preserving generational farms,” a Wisconsin Dairy Association spokesperson notes. “The USDA’s $85 million relief package covers just 7% of what farms need to survive.”

Critical Numbers for Your Operation

Alarming market indicators reveal troubling trends such as:

Class III milk prices: $22.55/cwt (projected to fall to $19.80/cwt post-March 4)
Feed costs surging: Corn at $4.89/bushel, Soybeans at $10.58/bushel
Daily operational cost increase: $20 per 100 cows

Essential Steps Before March 4: Your Farm’s Survival Guide

The following 30 days are crucial for safeguarding your dairy operation. Below is a strategic breakdown of the essential steps you need to take:

Secure Your Feed Supply

Lock in your contracts now while corn holds at $4.89/bushel and soybeans at $10.58/bushel. Current price volatility adds approximately $20 daily to operational costs for every 100 cows.

Financial Protection

Review the Dairy Revenue Protection program enrollment opening on January 29
Document your current contracts and pricing
Set up automated price monitoring systems for both inputs and output
Update force majeure clauses in all production contracts

Market Diversification :

Begin exploring alternative buyers and markets now. With $578.29 million in the U.S.-Canada dairy trade at risk, having backup plans is essential. Consider

Local market opportunities
Value-added product lines
Direct-to-consumer channels

Risk Management Timeline

1. Week 1 (Feb 4-11): Complete contract reviews and updates

2. Week 2 (Feb 11-18): Finalize feed contracts

3. Week 3 (Feb 18-25): Set up monitoring systems

4. Week 4 (Feb 25-Mar 4): Activate contingency plans if needed

Preparing for the Future

The 30-day window provides a crucial time for both nations to work toward a permanent solution. However, farmers can’t afford to wait. “Every day counts when you’re protecting generations of equity,” emphasizes a prominent Idaho dairy leader.

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Categories : Politics

Tags : cross-border trade, dairy tariffs, North American dairy farms, USDA relief package

25% Tariffs Ignite $1.2 Billion Dairy Trade Crisis Between U.S. and Canada

Sunday, February 2nd, 2025

U.S.-Canada dairy trade faces significant disruption as both nations slap 25% tariffs on agricultural goods. The $1.2 billion cross-border dairy market hangs in the balance, with farmers bracing for steep losses on both sides. Canada’s latest $30 billion counter-tariffs mark a dramatic escalation in the trade dispute.

Summary:

A significant trade dispute between the U.S. and Canada has erupted as both countries impose 25% tariffs on agricultural products, threatening $1.2 billion in annual dairy trade. The conflict escalated on February 2, 2025, when Canada announced $30 billion in retaliatory tariffs, with plans for additional tariffs on $125 billion worth of goods later this month. The impact is severe on both sides of the border: U.S. dairy farmers face potential losses in their largest butter export market and plummeting milk prices. At the same time, Canadian producers struggle with oversupply and production disruptions. Government relief packages – $85 million from the U.S. and CA$ 250 million from Canada – cover only a fraction of projected losses, leaving farmers vulnerable as both nations brace for long-term market uncertainty and potential further escalation during the 2026 USMCA trade agreement review.

Key Takeaways:

Both the U.S. and Canada have implemented 25% tariffs on each other’s agricultural imports, significantly impacting dairy trade.
Tariffs disrupt North America’s long-standing integrated supply chains, creating market volatility for dairy farmers.
U.S. dairy farms risk losing substantial sales to Canada, with an underfunded relief package exacerbating their financial challenges.
Canadian producers face potential domestic oversupply and price drops, compounded by limited financial support from the government.
Rising food costs and supply chain shortages are expected to impact consumers in both countries, and livestock prices will suffer.
Upcoming negotiations and diplomatic efforts may shape future trade dynamics, with stakeholders stressing the need for urgent resolutions to protect the industry.

U.S.-Canada dairy trade, 25% tariffs, agricultural goods, dairy market disruption, USMCA trade agreement

The U.S. and Canada have both imposed 25% tariffs on agricultural products. This move puts $1.2 billion in yearly cross-border dairy trade and interconnected supply chains in North America are at risk. Today, on February 2, 2025, Canada implemented retaliatory measures by imposing tariffs on $30 billion worth of U.S. imports affected by tariffs. Additionally, Canada is getting ready to impose more tariffs on $125 billion later this month, in February 2025. These actions have the potential to disrupt the 30-year-long integration of supply chains. Dairy farmers are currently dealing with sudden drops in prices and facing uncertainty in the market for the long term.

U.S. Dairy Farmers: Mounting Losses

Export Collapse: The U.S. risks losing its position as Canada’s top butter supplier, with $119 million in 2024 exports, as tariffs make products 25% more expensive. Due to domestic oversupply, prices for a specific type of milk used in dairy products could plunge by $1.70 per hundred pounds.
Inadequate Federal Aid: The $85 million United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) relief package covers only 7% of projected revenue losses for affected farms. Mark, a dairy operator from Wisconsin, believes the relief package will not compensate for the 40% loss in profit margins from shipments to Canada.
USMCA Showdown Looms: Trump’s Commerce Secretary nominee Howard Lutnick escalated tensions yesterday by declaring: “Canada treats our dairy farmers horribly. We’ll correct this in 2026 USMCA talks”.

Canadian Producers: Domestic Flood Risks

Cheese Market Crisis: 83,800 metric tons of Canadian dairy exports – including $99M in cheese – now face U.S. tariffs, threatening domestic oversupply. Farmgate prices could drop 0.0237% despite record production costs.
Border Bottlenecks: Critical cross-border ingredients like ultrafiltered milk face delays. Ontario processor Agropur reports, “We’ve suspended three production lines already.”.
Relief Package Gaps: Canada’s CA$250 million support package for 2025-2026 leaves Quebec farmer Lucie Bouchard skeptical: “This covers 19% of our projected losses. We need tripled funding”.

Shared Threats

Impact Area	U.S. Consequences	Canadian Consequences
Consumer Prices	+$1,300 annual food cost increase	3-5% food inflation
Supply Chains	12-18 month cheese shortages	8% milk surplus by April
Livestock	10% hog price drop projected	15% cattle price collapse likely

What’s Next?

Mexico’s “Plan B”: President Sheinbaum will unveil counteractions by February 7, potentially targeting U.S. dairy equipment imports.
Diversification Push: Both countries explore European Union (EU) and Asian markets, but new trade deals take 18-24 months to finalize.
USMCA Time Bomb: The 2026 agreement review could eliminate remaining exceptions for tariffs on dairy products.

Dairy Farmers of Canada President David Wiens emphasizes, “This isn’t just about tariffs—it’s about preserving family farms.”. “What we require are immediate diplomatic resolutions, not further escalations.

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Categories : Politics

Tags : 25% tariffs, agricultural goods, dairy market disruption, U.S.-Canada dairy trade

New 25% Border Tax Hits Dairy Trade: What It Means For Your Farm

Saturday, February 1st, 2025

New 25% tariffs on dairy trade between the U.S. and Canada are shaking the industry. With $856 million in cross-border dairy trade at stake, both countries brace for economic ripples. How will this impact your grocery bill?

Summary:

A new 25% tariff on dairy products crossing the U.S.-Canada border has sent shockwaves through the North American dairy industry. Implemented on February 1, 2025, the tariff affects $856 million in annual cross-border dairy trade. U.S. farmers, who exported $578.29 million in dairy to Canada last year, now face potential market losses, especially in butter sales. Canadian farmers, particularly cheese makers who sent CA$99 million to the U.S., will face higher export costs. Both governments are offering support packages, but farmers on both sides worry about long-term impacts. Consumers in both countries are bracing for higher food prices, with U.S. families potentially facing $1,300 more in annual food costs.

Key Takeaways:

U.S. Farmers:
- Potential loss of the Canadian market, especially for butter ($118.91m exports in 2024).
- Expected U.S. milk production of 227.2 billion pounds in 2025 may lead to oversupply.
- $85 million in government support available for export initiatives.
Canadian Farmers:
- 25% tariff on 83,800 metric tons of annual dairy exports to the U.S.
- Cheese exports (CAD 99m in 2024) will be particularly affected.
- CAD 250 million government support package for 2025-2026.
- Potential oversupply in the domestic market may lower farmgate prices.
- Need to focus on domestic market opportunities or explore new international markets.
Both:
- Expect market volatility and price fluctuations.
- Consider diversifying product lines or exploring value-added products.
- Stay informed about changing trade policies and support programs.
- Monitor production costs closely.
- Explore local and alternative markets to mitigate trade disruptions.

dairy tariffs, U.S.-Canada trade, dairy farmers impact, grocery bill increase, milk price fluctuations

A 25% tax on dairy products crossing the U.S.-Canada border started today. This change affects thousands of dairy farmers who have long sold their products across the border. Canada quickly responded with its own 25% tax on U.S. goods.

Why This Happened

President Trump imposed this tax to address the trade deficit with Canada and protect the interests of American dairy farmers. He says the U.S. is losing money in trade with Canada, especially in dairy products. The tax is also meant to pressure Canada to make a better trade deal when the current one is reviewed in 2026.

“Canada charges the U.S. a 270% tariff on Dairy Products! They didn’t tell you that, did they? Not fair to our farmers!” – Former President Donald Trump, during USMCA negotiations

Impact on Farm Life

The daily operations and income of dairy farmers on both sides of the border are rapidly changing. Canadian processors who used to sell their products to U.S. buyers now face much higher costs on about 83,800 metric tons of annual dairy exports. The new tax significantly impacts Canadian cheese makers, leading to a substantial loss of nearly CA$99 million in exports to the U.S. last year, affecting their profitability.

U.S. farmers are experiencing different changes. Last year, they sold $578.29 million worth of dairy products to Canada, including cheese ($95.35 million), butter ($118.91 million), and fresh milk ($55.61 million). However, the new tax threatens this trade, and many worry about losing Canada as their biggest butter market.

The Canadian government’s $250 million support package for 2025-2026 aims to assist Canadian farmers in adapting to the changes. Despite the $250 million support package, with cheese imports projected to reach 70,000 metric tons in 2025, many farmers worry this won’t sufficiently compensate for their anticipated losses.

Category	U.S. to Canada	Canada to U.S.
Total Value	$578.29 million	CA$278 million
Top Product	Butter ($118.91m)	Cheese (CA$99m)
Volume	N/A	83,800 metric tons
Most Vulnerable Export	Butter (Canada is #1 buyer)	Whey (37,400mt)

The Flow of Milk Across the Border

The dairy trade between the U.S. and Canada is substantial, with millions of dollars exchanged annually. Last year, U.S. farmers sold $756 million worth of dairy to Canada, mostly cheese, baby formula, and liquid milk. Canadian farmers sent $278 million worth of dairy south, mainly cheese and whey products.

This trade has grown by over 50% in the past decade, indicating a significant expansion in dairy trade between the U.S. and Canada. Now, the new tax will dramatically change this trading.

“In a trade war, there are no winners.” – Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau

What This Means for Everyone

These changes reach beyond the farm. Due to changes in trade policies, U.S. families may face an additional yearly expense of approximately $1,300 for food. In Canada, food prices could increase by 3-5% this year. According to financial analysts, this could result in a $200 billion cost to the U.S. economy over a four-year period, highlighting the substantial consequences of the trade changes.

Impact Area	U.S.	Canada
Household Cost Increase	$1,300/year	3-5% Food Inflation
GDP Risk (2025-2028)	$200 Billion Loss	N/A
Expected Milk Price Change	+$1.70/cwt (Class III)	-0.0237% Farmgate

Looking Forward

Changes will continue. New contracts between farmers and milk buyers will start in March 2025, and the enormous trade agreement review will occur in 2026. Both governments are collaborating to develop new strategies and support mechanisms to assist their respective farmers during these challenging times.

Farmers must maintain precise records of their expenses and stay updated on emerging programs that could offer assistance, ensuring they are well-prepared to navigate the evolving trade environment.

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Categories : Politics

Tags : dairy farmers impact, dairy tariffs, grocery bill increase, U.S.-Canada trade

U.S. Commerce Secretary Nominee Challenges Canadian Dairy Trade

Thursday, January 30th, 2025

Trump’s Commerce pick aims to shake up the U.S.-Canada dairy trade. Will this increase profits for American farmers or sour relations with our northern neighbors?

Summary:

Howard Lutnick, President Trump’s nominee for Commerce Secretary, has stirred up the dairy industry with his recent comments on U.S.-Canada trade. During a Senate hearing, Lutnick vowed to fight for better access to Canada’s dairy market for American farmers, claiming that Canada has treated U.S. farmers “horribly.” This stance could shake up Canada’s long-standing supply management system and open new opportunities for U.S. dairy exports. Lutnick also argued that tariffs don’t cause inflation, citing low inflation rates in high-tariff countries like China and India. These statements have sparked debate and concern among dairy farmers on both sides of the border, with potential ripple effects for the global dairy market. As the confirmation process continues, farmers worldwide keep a close eye on developments, recognizing that any shifts in the U.S.-Canada dairy trade could have far-reaching implications for the industry.

Key Takeaways:

U.S. Commerce Secretary nominee targets Canada’s dairy market, stirring concerns on both sides of the border.
Increased competition could affect the profitability of Canadian dairy farms and significantly smaller operations.
The U.S. pushes for broader access, potentially impacting North America’s trade balance and farm economics.
Upcoming tariff decisions and trade agreement reviews could reshape dairy market dynamics by 2026.
Farmers should monitor policy changes closely to adapt and seize potential new market opportunities.

U.S.-Canada dairy trade, Howard Lutnick, dairy market access, tariffs impact, dairy farmers concerns — Howard Lutnick, President Donald Trump’s choice to be Secretary of Commerce, appears before the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee for his confirmation hearing, Wednesday, Jan. 29, 2025, on Capitol Hill in Washington. (AP Photo/Rod Lamkey, Jr.)

Howard Lutnick, Trump’s nominee for U.S. Commerce Secretary, is making strong efforts to gain access to Canada’s dairy market. During his Senate hearing, Lutnick directly criticized Canada’s treatment of U.S. dairy farmers as “horrible,” pledging to change it.

Stirring the Milk Pot

Lutnick’s tough talk has Canadian dairy farmers on edge, while their American counterparts are cautiously optimistic. “Canada treats our dairy farmers horribly. That’s got to end,” Lutnick told Wisconsin Senator Tammy Baldwin, echoing a long-standing beef with Canada’s supply management system.

The U.S. has been seeking a larger share of the Canadian dairy market due to trade objectives and economic opportunities. Despite the new CUSMA trade deal, American producers seek increased access to Canadian markets to expand their reach in the dairy industry.

Tom Vilsack from the U.S. Dairy Export Council emphasized, “We must give our dairy farmers and processors a fair shake to compete up north.”

Crunching the Numbers

The dairy trade between the U.S. and Canada is significant and impactful. U.S. dairy exports to Canada have shot up 63% in the last decade, hitting $1.09 billion. Last year, Canada shipped about 83,800 tonnes of dairy south, worth CA$293 million. The cheese was the big cheese, bringing in nearly CA$99 million.

Here’s a breakdown of Canada’s dairy trade with the U.S. in 2023:

Product Category	Export Value (CAD)	Import Value (CAD)
Cheese	$98,754,635	–
Fluid Milk and Cream	–	$128,500,000
Infant Formula	–	$151,300,000
Total Dairy Trade	$293,250,317	$756,195,961

What It Means for the Barn

More access to Canada could lead to new international markets and increased profits through higher payments to U.S. dairy farmers. However, Canadian farmers are worried about their bottom line.

Small family farms could face pressure from lower-priced imports.
Mid-size operations might need to diversify their products and marketing strategies to stay competitive.
Big dairy outfits could cash in on exports but face stiffer domestic competition.

Tariff Talk and Price Tags

Lutnick also backed tariffs, claiming they don’t drive up prices. This raised some eyebrows among the number crunchers. If they don’t tighten their borders, Trump threatens to slap 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods in February 2025.

What’s Next in the Milk House

Keep an eye on these developments:

Will Lutnick get the nod, and how will that shake up trade talks?
How will Canada react to the pressure on its dairy industry?
The review of the CUSMA dairy rules in 2026 could have a significant impact.

The dairy sectors in the U.S. and Canada are facing tough times. Farmers on both sides of the border must stay vigilant as the trade winds shift.

If implemented, would these policy changes lead to a significant influx of new U.S. dairy products in Canadian stores? How could Canadian dairy farmers adjust their operations to remain competitive in a potentially more open market?

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Categories : Politics

Tags : dairy market access, Howard Lutnick, tariffs impact, U.S.-Canada dairy trade

Balancing Borders and Barns: Protecting U.S. Dairy Farms Amid Immigration Reforms

Thursday, January 30th, 2025

As Trump’s second term begins, America’s dairy industry faces a crisis. With 51% of workers being immigrants, proposed deportations threaten to curdle the milk market. Can the U.S. secure its borders without souring its agricultural backbone? Explore the high-stakes balancing act between national security and economic stability.

<a href="https://rss.com/podcasts/the-bullvine/1873353">E145 Balancing Borders and Barns: Protecting U.S. Dairy Farms Amid Immigration Reforms</a>

As President Trump embarks on his second term, the U.S. dairy industry is at a critical juncture. With immigrant workers making up 51% of the workforce on dairy farms, proposed mass deportations could have severe consequences for the sector. This article explores the complex interplay between immigration policy, labor requirements, and the economic landscape of American dairy farming, underscoring the critical need for solutions that balance national security and the agricultural foundation.

The Backbone of American Dairy: Immigrant Labor

Let’s be honest: immigrant workers are the heartbeat of U.S. dairy farms. A staggering 79% of the nation’s milk supply comes from farms employing immigrant labor. These workers are not just numbers but indispensable to an industry that nourishes millions and upholds many jobs. However, with Trump’s renewed focus on deportations, we must confront a harsh reality: our dairy sector is teetering on the edge.

Quick Facts:

51% of dairy farm workers are immigrants (that’s right, over half)
79% of U.S. milk comes from immigrant-staffed farms
A 50% reduction in immigrant labor could cost the economy $16 billion
Retail milk prices could spike by 90.4% without these workers
Over 7,000 dairy farms will likely close due to labor shortages stemming from immigration policies.
Eliminating all immigrant labor would result in a 90.4% increase in retail milk prices.

The Economic Ripple Effect

Impact	50% Labor Loss	100% Labor Loss
Reduction in Dairy Herd (Cows)	-1,037,681	-2,075,362
Drop in Milk Production (Billion Pounds)	-24,200	-48,400
Closure of Dairy Farms	-3,506	-7,011
Increase in Retail Milk Prices (%)	45.2%	90.4%
Economic Output Loss ($ billion)	-16.033	-32.067
Job Losses	-208,208	-208,208

The ramifications of labor shortages extend beyond simple production figures. A study found that employee turnover on dairy farms led to a 1.8% decrease in production, a 1.7% increase in calf loss, and a 1.6% increase in cow death rates. This highlights the critical role of experienced immigrant workers in maintaining the quantity and quality of dairy production.

These figures paint a grim picture of an industry struggling with high costs and regulatory burdens. It’s time to recognize that a strong agricultural sector is crucial for national stability.

Finding Balance: Security Without Sacrifice

The debate over immigration reform is complex and often polarized. While national security is paramount, we cannot ignore the economic realities facing our dairy industry. So, how do we strike a balance?

While the debate often focuses on undocumented workers, it’s worth noting that legal pathways for immigrant dairy workers are limited. Due to the year-round nature of dairy work, the popular H-2A visa program, which many agricultural sectors rely on, is largely unavailable to dairy farmers. This leaves the industry in a precarious position, relying on a workforce that lacks explicit legal protections.

Here are some pragmatic solutions worth considering:

Pathway to legal status: Provide a pathway to legal status for current undocumented workers who contribute positively to their communities.
Reform the H-2A visa program: Adapt this program to better fit year-round agricultural needs, particularly in dairy farming.
Robust guestworker programs: Create a more efficient system that allows farmers to hire seasonal and permanent workers without bureaucratic red tape.
Invest in automation: Encourage technological advancements that reduce reliance on manual labor while ensuring productivity.

These approaches allow us to secure our borders while ensuring our farms remain viable.

Addressing Concerns

While the solutions proposed above aim to balance national security with the needs of the dairy industry, they are not without potential drawbacks:

Pathway to Legal Status: Critics argue this could incentivize future illegal immigration. However, proponents counter that strict eligibility requirements and background checks would mitigate this risk.
H-2A Visa Reform: Some worry this could displace American workers. To address this, any reform should include robust protections for domestic labor, such as requiring employers to advertise jobs to U.S. workers first.
Guestworker Programs: There are concerns about potential worker exploitation. Implementing strong labor protections and allowing workers to change employers could help address these issues.
Automation Investment: While this could reduce labor dependence, it might also lead to job losses. A gradual transition coupled with worker retraining programs could help mitigate this impact.

It’s crucial to acknowledge these concerns and work towards solutions that address them while meeting the industry’s labor needs and maintaining national security.

Global Perspectives on Dairy Labor

While the US grapples with its immigration policies and their impact on the dairy industry, other countries face similar challenges and offer valuable lessons:

Canada: Like the US, Canada’s dairy industry relies heavily on immigrant labor. However, Canada has implemented the Agri-Food Immigration Pilot, a program designed to provide a pathway to permanent residency for experienced, non-seasonal agricultural workers.
New Zealand: As another major dairy producer, New Zealand has addressed labor shortages through its Essential Skills Work Visa program, which allows dairy farms to recruit overseas workers for positions they cannot fill locally.
Germany: The European Union’s largest milk producer has implemented the Skilled Immigration Act, which eases the immigration process for qualified workers from non-EU countries. This could potentially benefit the dairy sector.

The Political Landscape: Time for Common Sense Solutions

Immigration reform has long been mired in political gridlock, but the pressing realities facing our dairy industry may create an opportunity for compromise.

While conservative voices advocate for more muscular border control and enforcement of existing laws, many also acknowledge the essential role of immigrant labor in sustaining agriculture. This presents a rare chance to craft intricate policy solutions that tackle security issues and economic requirements.

As one farmer aptly said in response to the immigration debate, “We need secure borders, but we also need workers. There has to be a compromise.”

The Human Cost

Immigrant labor in the dairy industry takes a toll on workers, a reality often overlooked on milk cartons. A recent investigation by ProPublica revealed a somber reality for many of these workers on Midwest dairy farms: frequent injuries plagued by a lack of fundamental safety and health protections.

Imagine the daily grind, where each morning teems with the promise of productivity and the looming risk of injury. One immigrant worker shared, “I couldn’t even walk straight,” yet he felt he had no choice but to “keep my head down and swallow” the discomfort, driven by an unyielding financial burden. Their plight isn’t just a tale of individual struggle; it’s a call to action for a reformed framework that elevates labor standards while securing necessary protections.

This human cost also underscores the pressing need for comprehensive reform. Balancing our labor needs while safeguarding workers’ rights isn’t just a compassionate policy; it’s an ethical necessity that resonates through every glass of milk. The future of American dairy hinges on economic sustainability and equitable treatment of devoted workers.

Innovation: The Path Forward

While immigration reform remains critical, it’s encouraging to see farmers and industry leaders actively seeking innovative solutions:

Robotic milking systems: These technologies can help reduce dependence on human labor while increasing efficiency.
Automated feeding and cleaning technologies: Investments here can streamline operations and cut costs.
Alternative labor sources: Exploring options like veterans or urban-to-rural migrants can help fill labor gaps.
Training programs: Developing a skilled domestic workforce should be a priority to ensure long-term sustainability.

However, the transition from dairy farms to automation presents its challenges. A Texas A&M AgriLife study found that retail milk prices would nearly double if farmers lost foreign-born workers, suggesting that technology alone may not be a silver bullet solution.

While these initiatives show promise, they need time and investment. Achieving this is impossible if our farms crumble due to misguided policies.

The Bottom Line

The U.S. dairy industry is at a pivotal moment where immigration policy and economic challenges intersect. Let’s recap the key issues:

Immigrant workers comprise 51% of the dairy workforce, producing 79% of the nation’s milk.
Mass deportations could lead to a $32.1 billion economic hit and over 200,000 job losses.
Without reform, we face potential dairy farm closures and skyrocketing milk prices.

The solutions we’ve explored – from pathways to legal status to visa reform and technological innovation – offer a starting point for addressing this complex issue. As consumers, industry stakeholders, and citizens, we all have a role to play:

Stay informed about immigration policies and their potential impact on the dairy industry.
Engage with local and national representatives to advocate for balanced reform.
Support initiatives that promote fair labor practices and sustainable dairy farming.
Consider the human cost behind every gallon of milk and dairy product you consume.

The future of American dairy depends on our ability to reconcile national security concerns with the industry’s labor needs. It’s time for meaningful action to secure our borders, support our farmers, and ensure a stable food supply for generations. The choice is stark: we can exploit this crisis for political advantage or unite to cultivate solutions that fortify America’s dairy industry’s resilience and security. Which side of history will you be on?

Key Takeaways:

The dairy industry heavily relies on immigrant labor, which is currently necessary for maintaining production levels and stable prices.
The potential deportation of immigrant workers could lead to significant disruptions, including increased costs and reduced milk supply.
Dairy farmers could face drastic economic impacts if labor shortages occur, risking farm closures and economic downturns.
Considering innovative approaches and reforms could help alleviate labor shortages without sacrificing border security.
Investing in technology and training programs might offer long-term solutions, but immediate reforms are crucial to prevent industry collapse.

Summary:

The U.S. dairy industry stands at a crucial juncture as President Trump begins his second term. Proposed mass deportations threaten to destabilize a sector heavily reliant on immigrant labor. With 51% of dairy workers being immigrants and 79% of U.S. milk production stemming from immigrant-staffed farms, the looming economic fallout is significant. There is a potential $32.1 billion hit to economic output, over 200,000 job losses, and a 90.4% increase in retail milk prices if all immigrant labor is eliminated. This article delves into pragmatic solutions to this dilemma, exploring pathways to legal status, visa reform, and increased automation. It addresses potential concerns and draws insights from global perspectives, underscoring the urgent need for balanced reform. The aim is to reconcile national security with the dairy industry’s labor needs, urging readers to engage in this vital issue that influences both America’s food security and economic stability.

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Categories : Politics

Tags : dairy industry crisis, economic impact, immigrant labor, immigration reform, mass deportations

Why Donald Trump Hates Canada’s Dairy Supply System

Tuesday, January 28th, 2025

Since returning to the White House in 2025, President Trump has reignited his battle against Canada’s dairy system, calling it unfair to U.S. farmers. With tariffs as high as 298% and trade tensions boiling over, milk has become a weapon in international politics. What’s at stake for farmers and consumers?

<a href="https://rss.com/podcasts/the-bullvine/1869857">E141 Why Donald Trump Hates Canada’s Dairy Supply System</a>

Since storming back into the White House, President Trump has reignited his crusade against Canada’s dairy system. It’s a battle setting US farmers against Canadian farmers and turning a simple glass of milk into a political powder keg. Why is the most powerful man in the world so worked up about Canadian cheese? How did milk become a weapon in international trade wars? Let’s look at how it works and why it’s become even more controversial during Trump’s second term.

How Canada’s Dairy System Works

Aspect	Canada’s System	Impact
Production Control	CDC Sets Quotas	Stable Supply
Price Setting	CDC Sets Minimum Prices	Guaranteed Farmer Income
Import Limits	High Tariffs (Up to 298%)	Protected Domestic Market

Canada’s dairy system operates based on three primary rules:

Controlling Production: The Canadian Dairy Commission (CDC) determines how much milk Canada needs and instructs farmers on production levels, helping to keep prices steady. For instance, if Canadians are projected to drink 100 million liters of milk the following year, farmers will be directed to modify their production levels to prevent excess or shortages.
Setting Prices: The CDC sets minimum prices for milk to ensure farmers earn a sustainable income irrespective of market fluctuations. For example, if it costs $1 to produce a liter of milk, the CDC might set the price at $1.20, ensuring farmers can make a living.
Limiting Imports: Canada places significant taxes on imported dairy products, with tariffs as high as 298% for butter. This makes it difficult for foreign dairy companies to compete with Canadian products. For example, if American butter costs $3 per pound, it might cost $12 after taxes in Canada, discouraging consumers from purchasing it.

This system aims to maintain the sustainability of Canadian dairy farms and guarantee a consistent milk supply for Canadian consumers.

Trump’s Renewed Attack on Canadian Dairy

“In Canada, what they’ve done to our dairy farm workers is a disgrace. It’s a disgrace,” Trump said in the Oval Office in April 2017

Since Trump’s return to office, he has intensified his criticism of Canada’s dairy policies. His main grievances include:

Unfair to U.S. Farmers: Trump argues that Canada’s high import taxes unfairly prevent American dairy products from being sold in Canada, pushing for equal opportunities for U.S. dairy farmers.
Oversupply Issues: Limited access to Canada exacerbates the oversupply and low-price challenges U.S. dairy farmers face. In states like Wisconsin, excess milk often has to be discarded due to insufficient market demand.
Trade Negotiations: Trump is leveraging the dairy issue in broader trade discussions, suggesting repercussions if Canada doesn’t open its market to more U.S. products. He has even threatened to impose tariffs on Canadian goods if the dairy system isn’t reformed.

“Canada charges the U.S. a 270% tariff on Dairy Products! They didn’t tell you that, did they? Not fair to our farmers!” Donald Trump Tweet.

Recent Developments Under Trump

Trump’s return has led to notable developments:

Executive Orders: Trump has issued several orders affecting trade and military policies, indicating a stricter stance on trade. He has mandated reviews of all trade agreements to verify their fairness to the U.S.
USMCA Renegotiation: Trump seeks to renegotiate the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which could threaten Canada’s dairy protections, asserting that the current agreement inadequately supports U.S. farmers.
Increased Pressure: Trump’s administration has intensified efforts to dismantle Canada’s supply management system, elevating it to a critical issue in bilateral discussions. Trump frequently raises the topic of dairy in meetings with Canadian officials.

Impact on the Canadian Dairy Industry

The renewed pressure from the Trump administration is causing concern in Canada’s dairy sector:

Uncertainty: Canadian dairy farmers are worried about potential changes to the system that could threaten their livelihoods. Many are concerned that they may not remain competitive if the market permits an influx of U.S. dairy products.
Policy Challenges: Canada’s recent Bill C-282, aimed at protecting supply management from trade deal concessions, may face challenges under increased U.S. pressure, particularly in maintaining its objectives. This law was meant to prevent Canada from giving up more of its dairy market in trade talks, but Trump’s administration is pushing hard against it.
Price Adjustments: Despite global influences, the CDC revealed a slight drop in farmgate milk prices for 2025, attributing it to reduced feed expenses and stable farm costs. This shows that the system is still balancing farmer income with consumer prices.

How it Affects Consumers

The dairy system has both positive, such as ensuring a steady supply, and adverse effects, like higher prices, on Canadian consumers:

Higher Prices: Canadians generally pay more for milk and cheese than Americans. A family in Canada might spend $100 more per year on dairy products than a similar family in the U.S.
Steady Supply: The system ensures that there’s always enough milk, even when prices change in other countries. Canadians don’t have to worry about milk shortages.
Limited Variety: Due to the high taxes on foreign dairy, Canadians may have limited access to foreign cheeses and other dairy products in local stores. Some fancy European cheeses, for example, might be very expensive or hard to find.

Global Context

Country	Dairy System	Key Outcome
Canada	Supply Management	Stable prices, limited competition
USA	Open Market	Lower prices, oversupply issues
New Zealand	Deregulated (1980s)	Major dairy exporter
Australia	Deregulated (2000)	Small farms declined, and some imports

It’s helpful to look at how other countries handle their dairy industries:

The U.S. has a more competitive market, resulting in lower prices for consumers; however, it can also create challenges for farmers when there is an excess of milk.
New Zealand removed its protections for dairy farmers in the 1980s. Currently, New Zealand primarily exports its milk to other nations. This benefits New Zealand’s economy, but it also results in heavy reliance on other countries purchasing their milk.
Australia removed its protections in 2000, leading to many small farms leaving business. Presently, Australia needs to bring in certain dairy products from other countries.

Possible Future Scenarios

Looking ahead, there are several ways Canada’s dairy system might change:

Gradual Opening: Canada could slowly allow more foreign dairy products into the country over many years, giving Canadian farmers time to adapt.
Focus on Exports: Canada could explore selling more dairy products to other nations, including New Zealand. This would require Canada to compete in the international market.
Technological Advancements: Canadian farms could invest in new technologies, such as robotic milking systems, to become more efficient and competitive.
Environmental Focus: Future changes could focus on enhancing the environmental sustainability of dairy farming, such as reducing greenhouse gas emissions from cows.
Consumer-driven Changes: As more people want organic milk or plant-based alternatives, the system might change to support these products.

The Bottom Line

The battle over Canada’s dairy system concerns more than milk; it’s a fight over trade, livelihoods, and the future of farming. Trump’s push to dismantle Canada’s protections offers hope for new markets for U.S. farmers. Still, it questions whether they can thrive in an increasingly competitive global industry. For Canadian farmers, the system that has provided stability for decades is under siege, leaving them to wonder if gradual reforms or rapid changes will define their future.

Despite the tension, U.S. and Canadian farmers share common ground: a passion for their work and a commitment to feeding millions. As this trade war rages on, perhaps the real opportunity lies in collaboration. Could farmers on both sides of the border work together to address shared challenges like climate change, shifting consumer demands, and the rise of dairy alternatives?

The future of North American dairy is uncertain, but one thing is clear: the decisions made now will shape the industry for generations to come. Whether you’re milking cows in Wisconsin or Quebec, it’s time to think beyond borders and find a path that supports farmers, consumers, and the sustainability of dairy farming itself.

Key Takeaways:

The Canadian dairy supply management system is grounded on three pillars: production control, pricing mechanisms, and import control.
While the system stabilizes Canadian farmers, it increases consumer prices and stifles competition and innovation.
U.S. farmers, mainly impacted by overproduction and low prices, view Canada’s protected market as unfairly limiting their export opportunities.
Despite recent trade agreements, Canada has maintained the core structure of its supply management, with only minor adjustments.
Critics call for reform, highlighting inefficiencies, high consumer costs, and the need for increased market competitiveness and innovation.

Summary:

Canada’s dairy supply management system has stirred controversy, particularly with U.S. trade advocates. It keeps Canadian prices high and blocks foreign competition to help Canadian farmers. Former U.S. President Donald Trump was vocal about it, saying it unfairly stops U.S. dairy from entering Canada and hurts U.S. farmers. Although some trade deals have pushed Canada to open its dairy market, critics say the system is outdated, inefficient, and blocks new ideas. With global trade changing, Canada might need to update its dairy policies for better prices and international fairness.

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Categories : Politics

Tags : Canada dairy system, trade negotiations, Trump, US farmers

Trump’s Dairy Empire: How The Donald Would Revolutionize American Milk Production

Friday, January 24th, 2025

Imagine Donald Trump swapping his golden tower for a dairy farm. What if the president decided to “Make American Milk Great Again”? From robot milkers to Twitter-famous cows, we explore how Trump might revolutionize the dairy industry. It’s a udder-ly wild ride you won’t want to miss!

<a href="https://rss.com/podcasts/the-bullvine/1863607">E134 Trump’s Dairy Empire: How The Donald Would Revolutionize American Milk Production</a>

Picture this: Donald Trump, his famous hair hidden under a worn John Deere cap, leaning against a fence post, surveying a sea of black and white Holsteins. It’s 2025, and the former president has traded Trump Tower for a milking parlor, ready to “Make American Milk Great Again.” Let’s churn through this idea and see how Trump might transform the dairy industry.

Trump’s Super-Farm: Bigger and Fancier than Your Average Barn

If Trump got into the dairy business, you can bet your bottom dollar that it wouldn’t be your run-of-the-mill family farm. He’d go big—huge.

High-Tech Cow Care

“We’re gonna have the smartest cows, folks. Believe me,” Trump might boast. His farm would use fancy gadgets to keep tabs on his herd. Cow Fitbits, similar to fitness trackers for cows, would monitor each cow’s health status and milk production. This high-tech approach could potentially lead to healthier cows and increased milk production. He’d probably brag about his “Trump Dairy Brain” – a fancy computer system running the show. Trump would undoubtedly strive for even better outcomes.

“We’ve got the best udders, folks. They’re huge!”

Trump would be all about breeding super-cows. He’d team up with cow scientists (yeah, that’s a real job) to create cows that make more milk than ever before. He might even try to patent “Trump Cows” – with gold-plated ear tags.

Milking Robots and Fancy Barns

Trump loves building things, so he’d construct state-of-the-art barns with robotic milkers. These metal milkmaids can work around the clock, which means more milk and fewer sore human hands. The barns would be climate-controlled to keep the cows comfy year-round. “It’s like a five-star hotel for cows,” Trump might say.

Making Dairy Great Again: Trump’s Milky Game Plan

As a businessman turned farmer, Trump advocated for changes that could significantly impact American dairy farmers. These included imposing stricter regulations on imported milk. His policies could reshape the industry for better or worse.

America First Milk Policy

Trump might boldly proclaim, “We’re going to build a wall and make the Canadian cows foot the bill!” He would also advocate for higher taxes on milk from other countries and promote the sale of more American milk overseas. He’d probably also ask for more government help for dairy farmers, saying, “We need to support our great American milk heroes!”

Cutting the Bull… I Mean, Red Tape

Trump would try to eliminate rules he thinks are holding farmers back. One example is loosening environmental regulations. “We’re gonna drain the swamp… and use it to water our fields!” he might quip.

Trump’s Milk Diplomacy: Taking on the World, One Udder at a Time

Trump is known for his tough talk in business deals, and he would probably apply that same style to selling milk worldwide.

He might aim to renegotiate trade deals to boost the export of American milk, particularly to countries like Canada. “Time to milk this deal for all it’s worth,” he might say. He’d also likely pick fights with Europe over cheese names, arguing that American farmers should be able to call their cheese whatever they want. “We’re gonna make American Parmesan great again, even if we have to call it Trump-esan!”

The Trump Touch: Making Dairy Cool Again

Trump’s a marketing whiz, so he’d go all out to promote his dairy products. His marketing prowess could potentially make dairy farming more appealing to the public, sparking a new interest in the industry.

“Trump Milk: The Gold Standard in Dairy”

Imagine milk cartons featuring Trump’s image and catchy slogans like “The Finest Milk Money Can Purchase.” He’d probably use Twitter to tell everyone how great his milk is: “Just had a glass of Trump Milk. It’s fantastic. Makes all other milk taste like water. Sad!”

Celebrity Milk Mustaches

Trump might get his famous friends to appear in ads drinking his milk. Picture Kim Kardashian or Tom Brady sporting a Trump milk mustache, exclaiming, ‘Got Milk, Trump Style!’ “Tom Brady drinks Trump Milk. That’s why he’s a champion. Be like Tom and taste victory with every sip!”

The Milky Way Forward: Would Trump’s Dairy Dream Float or Curdle?

While the idea of Trump running a dairy farm might seem as likely as a cow jumping over the moon, it does make us chew our cud about the future of dairy farming. Trump’s business smarts and love of new gadgets could shake things up in the industry.

But let’s not kid ourselves – dairy farming is more challenging than a two-dollar steak. Even someone like Trump, with all his money and famous friends, would find it’s not all smooth sailing. Farmer Bob, who’s been milking cows for 40 years, told me, “Running a dairy farm is harder than teaching a cow to dance. Trump might be in for a real kick in the pants!” This cautionary note reminds us that even with the best intentions, the dairy industry is not without its challenges.

Bottom Line:

Trump’s taking over a dairy farm would undoubtedly be the cream of the crop in terms of news. While his ideas might cause some controversy, they remind us that dairy farming requires innovative thinking to remain competitive. The future of dairy farming involves discovering more efficient methods to work intelligently, not just diligently while maintaining the well-being of our cows and land.

So, what do you think? Could Trump’s business know-how help dairy farmers, or would he be utterly out of his depth? How can we make sure American dairy stays strong for years to come? Let’s milk this conversation for all it’s worth!

Key Takeaways:

Trump’s hypothetical entry into dairy farming would likely emphasize cutting-edge technology and innovation.
Potential policies may focus on promoting American milk domestically and internationally while reducing regulations.
Advanced farming techniques and robotic technology are expected to boost production efficiency and cow comfort.
Trump’s marketing prowess could significantly reshape the dairy industry by glamorizing milk commodities.
The venture raises important questions about balancing business interests with sustainable agricultural practices.

Summary:

Imagine Donald Trump leaving politics to start a dairy farm. This article explores how he might change the dairy industry with his big ideas and love for technology. It talks about using fancy gadgets to watch cows, robots to milk them, and creating “Trump Cows” that produce more milk. Trump would likely push policies that favor American milk and take on foreign competition. Plus, his marketing skills would make his products stand out. While this idea is playful, it also highlights serious topics like innovation and staying competitive in farming. The article ends by asking us to think about how these bold ideas could help improve American dairy.

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Categories : Politics

Tags : America First Milk Policy, dairy industry transformation, Donald Trump, super-farm technology, Trump Milk branding

Rollins’ USDA Shakeup: Mass Deportations and Tariff Troubles Ahead?

Friday, January 24th, 2025

Brooke Rollins’ USDA confirmation hearing has dairy farmers on edge. Her plans could reshape your farm’s future from labor shortages to trade policies. Here’s what you need to know—and how to prepare.

Summary:

Brooke Rollins’ confirmation hearing for Agriculture Secretary has spotlighted significant issues for dairy farmers, like labor shortages, trade problems, and the need for financial support. With stricter immigration rules, farms might lose around 20% of their workers, making it harder to keep operations running. Rollins suggests expanding the H-2A visa program to help, but tighter border security could still limit farm workers. Farmers worry about the impact of tariffs on the trade front, especially as exports to China get hit. Rollins plans to improve trade deals for key markets like Canada and Mexico. While there is talk of $10 billion in aid for farmers, many are skeptical due to past letdowns. Dairy farmers must stay alert, consider new labor technologies, find new export opportunities, work with local farm groups, and keep track of their farm’s contributions and needs.

Key Takeaways:

Brooke Rollins’ confirmation as Agriculture Secretary is crucial for dairy farmers facing labor shortages, trade tensions, and financial uncertainty.
The potential tightening of immigration policies raises concerns about its impact on farm labor availability.
Rollins’ support for stricter trade policies could affect dairy exports, especially in key markets like China.
There are promises of a $10 billion aid package for farmers, yet skepticism exists about its timely delivery and effectiveness.
Dairy farmers are encouraged to explore technological innovations like robotic milkers and actively engage with agricultural organizations.

dairy farmers, agriculture policy, H-2A visa program, trade agreements, farm labor challenges

Dairy farmers nationwide are on high alert due to Brooke Rollins’ recent confirmation hearing as Agriculture Secretary. With labor shortages, trade wars, and market volatility already causing headaches, Rollins’ testimony provides insights into policies that could significantly affect numerous dairy operations.

The Labor Crunch: A Familiar Foe

Year	Domestic Workers Employed (Peak Season)	Foreign Workers Employed	Unfilled Positions (Peak Season)	Job Vacancy Rate (%)
2022	32,800	3,200	1,800	5.4
2025	32,000	4,000	2,000	6.0
2030	30,000	5,000	1,000	3.3

Let’s face it—finding and keeping good farm help has always been challenging. However, with discussions of stricter immigration policies, such as a potential 20% decrease in available farm labor, many dairy farmers are worried about maintaining sufficient farm staff for their barns.

Tom Johnson, a third-generation dairyman from Wisconsin, puts it bluntly: “Cows don’t take days off. If we lose our workers, we’re in deep trouble.”

Rollins empathetically stated, “I know these cows need to be milked 24/7. If there’s no one to milk them, that’s big trouble.” Expanding the H-2A visa program to include year-round workers could offer a viable solution for dairy farms facing labor shortages. Yet, her support for increased border security measures may reduce the overall pool of agricultural workers, causing concern.

Key Question: How can we keep our farms running if these immigration rules become a reality?

Trade Troubles: More Than Just Spilled Milk

Rollins is backing Trump’s tough stance on trade, which has some dairy farmers worried about their bottom line. Remember when China slapped those hefty tariffs on our cheese and whey? The impact of tariffs on our cheese and whey exports from China stung dairy farmers.

Jim Baker, who ships milk from his 500-cow operation in upstate New York, says, “We’re already scraping by on thin margins. If we lose more export markets, I don’t know how long we can hang on.”

While Rollins promises to advocate for farmers, skepticism remains about her capacity to tackle trade obstacles and protect farmers’ interests. She has pledged to collaborate closely with the U.S. Trade Representative to secure improved trade agreements for dairy exports, primarily focusing on key markets such as Canada and Mexico within the USMCA agreement.

Bold statement: Rollins declared, “We will fight for every pound of milk and every wedge of cheese in the global marketplace.”

A Ray of Hope: Whole Milk in Schools?

Amid all the tough talk, there’s a potential bright spot for US dairy farmers. Rollins hinted she might support getting whole milk back in school lunches.
Here’s what went down:

Senator Roger Marshall actually poured and drank whole milk during the hearing.
He asked Rollins if she thought whole milk belonged in school lunches.
As a kid, Rollins remembered drinking whole milk and said Marshall’s words “hit home.”

While she didn’t make any promises, Rollins seemed to like the idea.
For us, this could be big news. If whole milk gets back in schools, we might:

Sell more of our milk solids
See a bump in demand
Give kids a nutritious option at school

But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. There’s still debate about milk fat in kids’ diets, and nothing’s set in stone yet.

What do you think? If whole milk makes a comeback in schools, how might it change things on your farm?

A Helping Hand or Empty Promises?

Year	Total Aid Available ($ million)	Example Payment for 80 Cows ($)
2024	250	22,090
2025	250	22,090
2026	150	13,254
2027	150	13,254
2028	100	8,836

Discussions about $10 billion in aid for farmers are ongoing as part of a broader agricultural support package. While that may sound promising, we’ve been let down by grand promises in the past, like the $5 billion aid package that never fully materialized during the 2019 trade disputes.

Mary Thompson, a small dairy farmer from Vermont, isn’t holding her breath. “I’ll believe it when I see the check,” she says. “We need real solutions, not just Band-Aids.”

Rollins pledged to “work tirelessly” to expedite the transfer of that money to farmers, proposing a streamlined application process and direct deposit options to speed up fund distribution.

What’s Next for Dairy Farmers?

With Rollins leading the USDA, dairy farmers must stay vigilant for policy changes that could impact their operations directly. Here are some practical steps dairy farmers can take:

Stay informed about potential changes to the H-2A visa program and prepare documentation for year-round worker applications if the program expands. This knowledge will empower you to make informed decisions about your farm’s future.
Explore labor-saving technologies like robotic milkers or automated feeding systems to reduce reliance on manual labor.
Diversify your export markets beyond traditional partners by exploring emerging markets in Southeast Asia or the Middle East.
Collaborate with your local dairy co-op or farm bureau to collectively advocate for policies that support dairy farmers.
Compile detailed records of your farm’s economic impact and labor needs to share with policymakers.

Key Question: How can we ensure Rollins and the USDA understand the real-world implications of their policies on our farms?

The Bottom Line

Brooke Rollins’ confirmation hearing has given us a taste of what’s to come. Still, The actual test will be to see how her proposed policies directly impact dairy farm operations, similar to judging the quality of a pudding. As dairy farmers, we have overcome challenging periods and are prepared to do so again. Yet, we need policies that assist us instead of impeding us.

It is crucial to express your concerns, stay informed about policy updates, and be prepared to adapt your operations. Actively engage in local USDA meetings, directly contact representatives, or invite them to your farm to gain firsthand insight into your challenges. The future of our dairy farms depends on our ability to adapt to evolving policies and market conditions and our proactive advocacy in influential positions. Your active participation can make a significant impact.

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Categories : Politics

Tags : agriculture policy, dairy farmers, farm labor challenges, H-2A visa program, trade agreements

Trump’s Tariff Strategy: A Game-Changer for America’s Dairy Industry

Thursday, January 23rd, 2025

Trump’s 25% dairy tariff gamble: A crisis for some, a golden opportunity for innovative American farmers – find out why.

<a href="https://rss.com/podcasts/the-bullvine/1861676">E132 Trump’s Tariff Strategy: A Game-Changer for America’s Dairy Industry </a>

President Trump plans to impose a 25% tariff on dairy imports from Canada and Mexico, which could significantly change the U.S. dairy industry. While some worry about trade problems, these tariffs might help American dairy farmers grow by encouraging them to invest in new technology and expand their operations. The tariffs aim to support local farmers by increasing domestic demand, stimulating economic growth, promoting self-sufficiency, and fostering innovation through new technology investments. This article explores the impact of Trump’s tariffs on dairy markets and why U.S. farmers can be optimistic about them.

Shielding America’s Dairy Core: The Domestic Impact of Tariffs

President Trump’s planned 25% tariffs on dairy imports from Canada and Mexico, starting on February 1, 2025, are a strong move meant to help U.S. dairy farmers and change the industry. While this might seem challenging initially, it is a step to strengthen the U.S. dairy industry. It should be seen as a positive change.

Key Domestic Impacts:

More U.S. Dairy Production: U.S. dairy farmers will likely produce more milk with fewer imports. According to the USDA, milk production is projected to increase by 1.2% annually, reaching 228 billion pounds in 2025. This is possible because of rising demand and better farming technology, such as robotic milkers, AI tools for monitoring cow health and planning feeding schedules, and precision feeding systems. These advanced technologies should encourage American dairy farmers.
Higher Milk Prices: With fewer imports, milk prices might increase for farmers. The USDA says milk prices will be around $22.55 per hundredweight in 2025, a bit lower than before. These higher prices can enable farmers to enhance their farms by investing in new technologies and prioritizing sustainability efforts.
Focus on Sustainability: Farmers are increasingly focusing on sustainable practices. Land O’Lakes aims for all its farms to complete sustainability checks by 2025. These methods, including precision feeding, optimize nutrition and waste recycling to reduce environmental impact, benefit the environment, and enhance productivity on dairy farms.

Even though there are challenges, such as labor shortages due to stricter immigration rules, farms are using automation to help. Robotic milking systems streamline operations by reducing labor requirements, ensuring consistent milking schedules, and enhancing farm efficiency.

“This policy gives American farmers a chance to improve how they work,” says Dr. Emily Chen, an agricultural economist. “By prioritizing innovation, farmers can compete effectively in both local and global markets.”

While the tariffs help local farmers produce their supplies, they also bring challenges. Farmers must balance making more milk with sustainable practices to succeed in the changing market. Additionally, the increased production leads to oversupply, which could drive down prices and affect the profitability of the dairy industry.

Global Trade Shifts: New Opportunities for U.S. Dairy

As American dairy farmers find themselves at the cusp of a dynamic shift, the landscape of dairy product pricing is indicative of the transitions occurring within the market due to tariff implications. The following table shows how these changes have affected the prices of key dairy products in the U.S. from 2024 to 2025:

Product	2024 Price ($/lb)	2025 Price ($/lb)	% Change
Cheddar Cheese	$1.895	$1.800	-9.5%
Butter	$2.755	$2.685	-7.0%
Nonfat Dry Milk	$1.250	$1.300	+4.0%
Dry Whey	$0.553	$0.595	+7.5%

Market Diversification

Due to rising incomes and urban living, countries in Asia and Africa are seeing more demand for dairy. For instance, China’s need for imported dairy grew by 12% in 2024. In Southeast Asia, places like Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam are buying more cheese and milk powder. Africa also wants to import more dairy, with Nigeria and Kenya showing potential.

The global dairy trade is changing, offering new market opportunities. The USDA notes that the milk supply from key regions will rise by 0.8% in 2025. Countries like Argentina and New Zealand are producing more. New Zealand is shifting its exports from milk powder to cheese, butter, and infant formula, with exports of protein products growing 13.8% in early 2024.

Global Price Changes

As Canada and Mexico change import plans, dairy prices may quickly change. U.S. producers using advanced tech can take advantage of competitive pricing. While cheddar and butter prices may drop in 2025, nonfat dry milk and dry whey prices may increase. This offers both challenges and opportunities for U.S. exporters.

“According to Mark Lewis, an analyst at Global Dairy Insights, “The global market is ready for change.” “With growing Asian and African markets and U.S. investments in processing, American exports have a great chance. The key is to adapt to consumer needs and handle global trade deals well.”

Innovation Catalysts: How Tariffs Drive Efficiency

The proposed tariffs are not just about protection but also igniting a wave of innovation in the U.S. dairy industry. Farmers are embracing new technologies to enhance efficiency and sustainability, demonstrating the industry’s resilience in the face of change.

Technological Advancements

Robotic milking systems are just the beginning. Farms now use AI tools to monitor cow health and plan feeding schedules, which can increase milk yields by up to 15%. For example, Connecterra’s system uses AI to track livestock health and behavior, helping farmers better manage their herds.

Another significant change is precision feeding. The DairyFeed F4500 robot mixes and delivers feed to cows, reducing feed waste. With this system, a farm in France increased milk production from 28 to 36 liters per cow per day.

Real-World Success Stories

Green Valley Farms in California uses water recycling to reduce water usage by 40%, lowering costs and promoting sustainability. In Wisconsin, one farm used AI to catch a drop in milk production, allowing quick fixes and preventing losses.

Sustainability and Profitability

AI technology is boosting both sustainability and profits in dairy farming. It helps farms reduce waste and use resources like water and energy more wisely.

The financial gains, such as increased profits and cost savings, are significant. Farms using AI can see a 10%- 20%boost in milk production and cut operating costs by 25%. A recent report showed profits grew by an average of 20%over three years on farms using advanced tech.

By leveraging these technologies, U.S. dairy farmers address the challenges posed by tariffs and excel in efficient and sustainable production, maintaining global competitiveness and responsibility.

Labor Challenges: Automation as a Solution

Amid the labor shortages in U.S. dairy farms, technology offers hope. Automation, using robotic machines and innovative software, is changing how dairies work. It keeps production steady and improves cow welfare.

Robotic Feeding: Robots are revolutionizing cow feeding on farms by providing precise feed amounts and improving cow health. They give the right amount of feed, need less human work, and keep cows healthy. The GEA DairyFeed F4500 is one such robot that mixes and gives outfeed. In France, using such technology increased milk from 28 to 36 liters per cow daily. This demonstrates the direct role of robots in increasing farm productivity.

Training: Workers need training to use these robots well. Farms partner with schools to teach workers about new technology, such as robotic milkers. DairyTech Institute programs help workers learn these skills. According to Zach Rutledge from Michigan State, “Automation isn’t taking jobs—it’s improving them by enhancing efficiency and creating new opportunities for skilled workers.”

New Jobs Needed: While robots perform easy tasks, farms need skilled workers for tech jobs. These new jobs offer good pay and opportunities to advance.

Automation addresses labor shortages and enhances farming efficiency and sustainability, contributing to overall farm success. Using new technology and training workers, dairies can handle labor issues and remain competitive in the changing farming world.

Strategic Planning Amid Volatility

As the U.S. dairy industry faces challenges from tariffs and market changes, thoughtful planning is key for farmers and leaders. Dairy producers need strategies that boost their strength and ensure success to thrive.

Diversifying Revenue Streams: Farmers can boost income by creating products like organic milk or specialty cheeses, which sell for more in niche markets. Some farms are turning to agritourism, inviting people for tours and events, which brings in extra money while engaging the community. A recent survey showed that farms in agritourism saw a 25% rise in revenue. Selling by-products like whey protein or ice cream can also help balance income when milk prices drop.
Leveraging Government Subsidies: Government programs help farmers manage financial risks during tough times. The USDA’s Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) provides money when milk prices are low or feed costs are high, helping to make earnings more predictable. Enrollment for 2025 starts on January 29, 2025. In Canada, the Dairy Direct Payment Program provides funds to help farmers cope with trade changes, ensuring stability and fostering innovation in the dairy industry.
Successful Adaptation Strategies: Other agriculture sectors offer lessons for dairy farmers. Some grain growers use renewable energy, such as solar panels or wind turbines, to earn extra income and cut energy costs. Dairy farms in Canada are improving their processing facilities to make better products. New Zealand’s dairy farms often mix crops and livestock, boosting income and soil health.

It is vital to plan smartly in uncertain times. Diversifying income sources, utilizing government assistance, and drawing lessons from other sectors can help dairy farmers strengthen their operations and work toward future success.

The Bottom Line

President Trump’s tariff strategy is a turning point for the American dairy industry. The proposed 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico will change trade patterns and create new opportunities for growth and innovation. The U.S. dairy sector can bolster its global strength and competitiveness by embracing cutting-edge technologies, expanding into diverse markets, and fostering strong partnerships with farmers and industry leaders.

Flexibility, adaptability, and strategic planning are essential elements that contribute to success in the dairy industry, allowing for agility in response to market changes and long-term planning for sustainable growth. American dairy farmers demonstrate resilience and creativity by utilizing AI for herd management and developing new products. Despite changes, the industry’s focus on sustainability, efficiency, and quality helps it seize new opportunities at home and abroad. Trump’s tariffs are not just about protection; they’re driving change. By investing in innovation, workforce skills, and new markets, the American dairy industry can remain a global leader in quality and efficiency.

What specific strategies are you considering to adapt to the changing landscape of the dairy industry with the new tariffs in place? How are you getting ready for these changes? What challenges have you faced or opportunities have you explored in response to the tariff implications on the dairy industry? Feel free to share your experiences and insights below.

Key Takeaways:

Proposed tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico are intended to bolster the U.S. dairy market by increasing market share and domestic prices.
The realignment of global trade flows due to tariffs creates new opportunities for U.S. dairy exports in several international markets.
The U.S. dairy industry is investing in innovation and technology to improve efficiency and sustainability, spurred by tariff pressures.
Strict immigration policies and labor challenges are being addressed through automation in the dairy industry, leading to higher-skilled workforce opportunities.
The American dairy industry shows resilience, turning potential volatility into growth and innovation strategies amidst tariff changes.

Summary:

As we head into 2025, President Trump’s tariff plans are changing the game for American dairy farmers. The proposed 25% tariffs on dairy imports from Mexico and Canada could help local farmers by boosting demand for their products. This may also lead to higher milk prices and encourage farmers to use new technologies. As trading partners rethink their import plans, U.S. dairy producers could find new opportunities in international markets. These changes are pushing American farmers to adopt more innovative and efficient practices, helping them stay competitive globally. The future looks bright for U.S. dairy, with chances to grow and lead the market in quality and efficiency.

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Categories : Politics

Tags : economic growth, market diversification, Trump tariffs, U.S. dairy industry

Key Insights for Dairy Farmers from Trump’s Second Inaugural Address: Navigating Opportunities and Challenges

Monday, January 20th, 2025

Learn how Trump’s second inaugural address affects dairy farmers. Are you prepared to handle new trade rules, labor issues, and economic chances?

<a href="https://rss.com/podcasts/the-bullvine/1859879">E130 Key Insights for Dairy Farmers from Trump’s Second Inaugural Address: Navigating Opportunities and Challenges</a>

Summary:

President Donald Trump’s second inauguration might change the American dairy industry a lot. His speech on January 20, 2025, talked about boosting the economy, protecting trade, cutting rules, and having stricter immigration laws. These could all affect dairy farming. This means both chances and problems for farmers. To succeed, farmers should be flexible, use new technologies, and explore different markets. They need to stay informed and ready to react to these changes. With Trump’s focus on growth, there might be more support for U.S. dairy production, fewer regulations, and more jobs in rural areas. But changes in trade deals could make overseas trade harder. Also, there might be fewer workers because of stricter immigration laws. Finally, cutting rules might mean less environmental and safety regulations for dairy farms. Overall, Trump’s plans mean dairy farmers need to adapt quickly and look for new opportunities to succeed.

Key Takeaways:

Economic growth policies under President Trump’s administration might support domestic dairy production and increase exports.
Trade negotiations and potential tariffs hold protective and challenging implications for the international dairy market.
Stricter immigration policies could result in labor shortages, motivating investment in automation for dairy farms.
Deregulation efforts may lead to changes in environmental and food safety standards, impacting dairy operations.
Embracing new technologies and market diversification are crucial for navigating the uncertain political and economic landscape.
While potential benefits exist, the dairy industry faces challenges like trade uncertainties, labor shortages, and market volatility.
The future success of American dairy will depend on adaptability and a proactive approach to policy shifts and global market responses.

Trump's inaugural address, dairy industry impact, protectionist trade policies, domestic dairy production, labor shortages in dairy

Earlier today, President Donald Trump gave his second inaugural speech in Washington, D.C., focusing on economic growth, trade policies, and reducing rules that could seriously affect the US dairy industry. His plans to boost local production and change trade deals mean dairy farmers might face both good and bad changes. As Trump’s new term starts, those in the dairy industry must keep an eye on these shifts and be ready to adapt.

Bolstering the Dairy Economy

President Trump’s economic plans could help the dairy sector by boosting local production and exports. His policies might include tax cuts, reducing farmers’ costs, and allowing them to invest more in their farms. This can lead to better tools, improved production, and higher efficiency. These tax cuts would provide quick relief and aim for long-term growth in the industry.

In his address, Trump emphasized his commitment to economic growth, stating, “From this day forward, our country will flourish and be respected again all over the world. We will be the envy of every nation, and we will not allow ourselves to be taken advantage of any longer”.

Trump also wants to improve roads, resources, and the internet in rural areas, where most dairy farms are. This can help move dairy products faster, cutting costs and boosting the US dairy industry’s global position. While the economic focus is promising, Trump’s trade policies are tricky. Boosting local production might help dairy farmers at home. Still, tariffs and new trade deals could disrupt established export routes, potentially leading to longer transit times and increased costs.

Navigating Trade Waters

President Trump’s trade strategies significantly affect the dairy sector, both good and bad. He plans to change trade deals to help US dairy products reach more places worldwide. This follows his “America First” policy, which aims to open new markets by removing barriers. However, Trump’s actions, like the import tariffs, also bring challenges.

In his speech, Trump declared, “We will tariff and tax foreign countries to enrich our citizens”. He also announced the establishment of an “External Revenue Service” to collect tariffs, duties, and revenues, stating, “It will be massive amounts of money pouring into our treasury, coming from foreign source”.

These tariffs protect US industries, like dairy, from foreign competition. However, they might also lead other countries to add tariffs, risking trade partnerships. This can mess up export routes, change market dynamics, and lower profits for US dairy businesses.

This puts farmers in a tough spot. While Trump’s policies might boost local production and exports, they could also cause trade tensions. Farmers might have to deal with changing global market demands and price swings, which require quick adaptation. Protectionist policies might help local businesses, but dairy experts need to plan carefully for their effects.

Labor Lockdown

Under President Trump’s stricter immigration rules, the dairy industry faces significant challenges because it relies on immigrant workers. These rules could make it even harder to find enough workers, leading to higher farm costs. Trump emphasized his stance on immigration, stating, “First, I will declare a national emergency at our southern border. All illegal entry will immediately be halted, and we will begin the process of returning millions and millions of criminal aliens back to the places from which they came”.

To cope, farms should consider using machines and new technologies. Automation, like milking, feeding, and cleaning machines, can help farms rely less on human workers. Although these technologies cost a lot upfront, they can save money over time by keeping production steady. Investing in technology allows dairy farms to handle worker shortages and still produce quality milk.

Regulatory Pivot

The 2025 presidential speech discussed less strict rules that could change the dairy business, especially about the environment and food safety. With fewer rules, dairy farms could save money and work better, increasing profit and growth.

Trump declared, “Today, I will sign a series of historic executive orders. With these actions, we will begin the complete restoration of America and the revolution of common sense. It’s all about common sense”.

Farmers must keep high environmental and food safety standards, even with fewer rules. Customers still want safe, good-quality dairy products. So, producers must invest in sustainable practices and follow good guidelines, even if the law doesn’t make them. New technologies that save resources and reduce waste, like precision farming, will also be necessary.

Also, researching unique markets with specific standards, like organic certification, can help farms stay strong even if the rules change. While fewer rules might make things easier and cheaper, focusing on the environment and product quality is vital to maintain customers’ trust and succeed long-term.

Adaptability and Innovation

In a time of change and uncertainty, the dairy industry must focus on being flexible and using new ideas to succeed under President Trump’s rule. Farmers should use the latest technologies to make their work easier, reduce the need for workers, and stay competitive in the US and internationally. By using these tools, dairy farms can improve their processes, lower costs, and make better products, which will help them succeed in the market and shape their future.

A thoughtful way for dairy farmers to deal with the unpredictable nature of trade and protectionist strategies is to diversify where they sell and what they offer. Finding new places to sell and expanding their products helps them cope with changes in current trade deals or markets. This reduces their reliance on single markets and opens up growth opportunities in new areas. For instance, exploring new export markets or introducing value-added dairy products can mitigate the risks of trade changes and potentially increase profits.

Using technology like precision farming tools, automated milking systems, and advanced data tracking, farmers can make quick, smart decisions to use resources better and increase production. Investing in these new ideas helps them adapt quickly to changes in policy or trade. Being ready to adjust will be key to dairy farmers’ success in this changing economy.

Innovation solves immediate problems and creates a path for continued growth and stability in an uncertain future. Focusing on being adaptable makes the audience feel prepared and active in the face of change. The dairy industry must focus on innovation and flexibility to succeed in this changing world. Using technologies like precision farming tools and automated milking systems can make work more efficient and reduce the need for labor. Trying new markets and product lines can reduce the risks of trade changes.

Balancing the Scales

President Trump’s policies bring both chances and problems for the dairy industry. On the positive side, his plans to cut regulations could make things easier and cheaper for dairy farmers, possibly increasing profits. Also, his tax changes might reduce the amount farmers owe in taxes, allowing them to put more money back into their businesses.

However, there are also risks. Trump’s focus on protecting American products could lead to tensions with Canada’s quota system, making international sales more difficult. While new trade agreements might open up markets, they could also upset established trading paths, threatening dependable sales channels. On the positive side, his tax changes might reduce the amount farmers owe in taxes, potentially freeing up more capital for investment in their businesses.

Stricter rules on immigration might make it harder to find the necessary workers that dairy farms depend on. With fewer immigrant workers available, costs could rise, and farms might have to spend money on machines to do the work instead, which is tough for smaller farms with limited budgets.

Although there is hope for economic growth in the economy and rural areas, not all farmers may benefit equally. The success of new trade deals and monetary policies will depend on how they are implemented and how the world market reacts. Dairy farmers must stay flexible and consider policy changes to manage this complex situation well.

Despite these challenges, there is cautious hope about milk prices in 2025. Some experts think milk might reach $25, but it’s not guaranteed. Because of strong global demand, the US dairy industry is expected to grow through 2025.

Global Market Shakeup

The changes in U.S. trade policies under Trump might greatly affect dairy farmers outside the U.S. As America aims to increase its dairy exports and change trade deals, farmers from other countries could face more competition globally. This means they might lose market share where the U.S. gets better access, and they may need to lower prices or improve quality to stay in the game.

These trade shifts could bring both new opportunities and challenges. Non-U.S. farmers might benefit from selling dairy in places where U.S. products are less competitive due to tariffs. However, they might also face more price changes due to shifting supply and demand and currency value changes affecting dairy exports.

International dairy farmers should diversify their products and improve their efficiency through technology to keep up. They may need to find new markets so they don’t rely too heavily on traditional partners. Additionally, farmers must focus on sustainable practices and changing consumer preferences for organic and plant-based products.

The Bottom Line

As President Trump’s new term starts, the dairy industry faces challenges and growth opportunities. Issues like insufficient workers and tricky trade situations are challenges, but tax changes and reducing regulations offer possibilities. Dairy farmers should stay strong by keeping up with policy changes, using new technologies, and exploring different markets.

The main goal is to be flexible and try new things to handle uncertainties. Farmers can improve their global competitiveness by working together and watching new laws.

Ultimately, adapting to change and staying creative will be key to success in this new era. As the dairy sector experiences Trump’s second term, success will depend on adjusting to policy changes, using the latest technology, and finding new market opportunities. By staying informed and ready, dairy farmers and processors can strengthen their position in this changing economic and political landscape.

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Categories : Politics

Tags : dairy industry impact, domestic dairy production, protectionist trade policies, Trump's inaugural address

Why Trump’s Take on Canadian Dairy May Leave U.S. Consumers Unsatisfied

Tuesday, January 14th, 2025

Why might Trump’s perspective on Canadian dairy not resonate with U.S. consumers? How could it influence your dairy options? Explore the discussion and learn more.

Summary:

This article dives into the debate about whether the U.S. relies on imports from Canada, covering goods like dairy, cars, and lumber. Donald Trump’s idea that America can go it alone is under the spotlight here. Experts are raising eyebrows, saying that cutting off Canadian goods is easier said than done because of long-established supply chains and consumer preferences. Take Canadian dairy, for instance; goat cheese and those uniquely crafted French-style cheeses fill gaps in the American market that local products can’t match. In 2023, Canada shipped over CAD 488 million worth of dairy products to the U.S. This figure isn’t just a number; it shows how these imports add value to what Americans can buy and underscore the intricate trade relationships between the U.S. and Canada.

Key Takeaways:

President-elect Donald Trump has expressed plans to reduce reliance on Canadian imports in the automotive, lumber, and dairy sectors.
Experts argue that the U.S. cannot easily replace Canadian imports due to established supply chains and domestic production limitations.
The U.S. heavily relies on Canadian softwood lumber to meet its domestic demand, with Canadian imports accounting for about 25% of the total U.S. consumption.
Canadian dairy products, especially specialty cheeses, have a unique market in the U.S., filling gaps not covered by domestic production.
Shifting to an utterly domestic supply chain could increase costs and operational challenges for U.S. industries.
Trump’s statements raise concerns about the potential economic and operational impacts on both Canadian exporters and U.S. consumers.
Experts and industry leaders suggest that eliminating Canadian imports is not a feasible short-term goal for the U.S. economy.

Canadian dairy imports, Trump economic vision, specialty cheeses, U.S. market diversity

Picture this: Sarah, a food enthusiast from Boston, steps into her favorite shop craving some Quebec brie cheese. But to her dismay, the shelves are empty. The owner tells her that trade issues are making these Canadian goodies scarce and might soon vanish altogether. Sarah isn’t alone in her frustration; countless Americans share her fondness for these delectable Canadian dairy products. It’s more than just missing out on a favorite cheese—this shift impacts consumers, farmers, and retailers across borders.

Trump’s Economic Vision: Challenging Canadian Imports for Self-Sufficiency

In a bold move, Donald Trump’s recent remarks put Canadian imports right in the spotlight, especially in crucial areas like dairy, cars, and lumber. He’s saying loud and clear that the United States doesn’t need these products from Canada, like milk, cheese, cars, and softwood lumber. Trump’s vision? The U.S. can handle its own needs without leaning on Canadian imports. He’s focused on propping up local industries, even if it means shaking up long-standing trade relationships. The North American supply chains are a tight-knit web, but Trump’s message implies it’s time to rethink these ties. The goal? To fire up U.S. production and reduce reliance on goods from abroad.

Canadian Dairy: A Critical Component of the U.S. Culinary Landscape

Canadian dairy products stand out in the U.S. market, bringing much-needed diversity and filling niche gaps that local options can’t quite match. In 2023, Canada shipped about CAD 488 million of dairy treats to the U.S. But here’s the thing: it’s not just about the numbers—it’s about offering something different. Canadian cheese, especially from goat and sheep milk, hits the spot for American cheese lovers who aren’t getting these flavors at home. There’s a niche for specialty cheeses because many Americans crave artisan and French-style flavors, and folks in Quebec know how to satisfy those cravings. While cow’s milk cheese is pretty standard, the demand for diverse types is enormous, which means a lot of imports from Canada. People go for these because of their distinct flavors and textures—it’s all about the unique taste. This cheese trade showcases our choices and the complex supply chains between our two countries, spotlighting how Canadian dairy caters to those refined palates in the U.S. market.

It Seems Mr. Trump May Have Underestimated How Much U.S. Consumers Relish Those Creamy Delights from Up North

Have you ever thought about what it’s like to stroll through the cheese aisle and not just grab some ordinary cheddar or mozzarella? I’m talking about that maple-smoked cheddar, rich brie with a hint of maple syrup, or even Quebec’s unique blue cheese. How often do you pick a cheese and think, “Wow, this is something different?” Well, here’s the scoop: Americans are seriously loving Canadian dairy. Sure, there’s a lot of political chatter, but let’s be honest—those unique cheeses aren’t easy to replace. Whether it’s the bold goat cheese or some fancier options, these cheeses bring something unique that local U.S. cheese sometimes lacks. We’ve got great cheese here, but do we have the same variety?

Remember that last wine and cheese bash you hosted? Recall how folks couldn’t stop raving about that creamy artisan cheese from Quebec you put on the board. People know what they enjoy and aren’t shy about seeking it out. Canadian cheese brings flavors that stand out from the local varieties to please those tricky taste buds. From zesty to rich, these dairy delights aren’t just food but part of a cultural journey.

So, what do you think, everyone? Is letting go of Canadian cheese worth it just for some political back-and-forth? Or should we keep those cheesy goodies flowing so our cheese boards have the diversity they deserve? Share your thoughts—your taste tales and foodie experiences genuinely count!

Let’s Talk Turkey—or Should We Say Cheese?

Let’s chew the cud on what happens if we slam the brakes on Canadian dairy imports. Imagine a world where one of our favorite suppliers just vanished—it’d stir the pot. Hey, you dairy farmers out there, how do you feel about cutting out the Canadian stuff? It’s a bit daunting.

First up, let’s chat about prices. If we’re losing a steady supplier, prices could spike. It sounds like a win for U.S. farmers at first—higher prices mean more cash, right? But hang on—hiking prices don’t necessarily fatten the wallet. Jim Mulhern from the National Milk Producers Federation warns that while there might be some quick bucks, it could make us less competitive over time. It’s a classic case of short-term gain versus long-term pain.

Now, picture the dairy aisle with fewer Canadian goodies. That means a slimmed-down selection at the store. Can’t find that Quebec cheddar at your local deli? This could be our reality if Canadian imports take a hit. Folks might miss those unique Canadian cheeses from the fancy cheese shops. Besides, keeping the dairy world balanced with supply and demand is key. Krysta Harden, who knows her stuff from her time as a U.S. Deputy Secretary of Agriculture, says messing with this balance could boost local production costs, cramping the market variety even more.

So, is it worth flipping the current dairy scene upside down? On paper, Trump’s vision might seem all red, white, and blue, but it comes with twists that could change the whole game. U.S. dairy farmers, there’s a lot to mull over—are the potential payoffs worth the gamble of shaking up the market? Now, that’s a question to chew on.

The Complexity of Shifting to a Completely Domestic Dairy Supply Chain

The dairy supply chain isn’t just some neat assembly line—it’s a labyrinth of stages that turn milk or cheese into what ends up on your dining table. Picture this: it’s not merely about cranking out more milk; it’s about seamlessly knitting together each intricate part. Farms gotta keep those cows healthy, feed them top-notch grub, maintain those cozy barns, and deploy all the high-tech gear. It costs a pretty penny and demands a heap of know-how to keep the ball rolling smoothly and swap out Canadian imports for good ol’ American products. Well, that ain’t just flipping a light switch. It means ramping up production, which takes time, bucks, and a heap of resources. To go big, we’d need way more processing plants and sprawling fields for more cows—all while juggling hurdles like securing funds, scoring permits, and playing by the rules.

Then there’s the whole workforce thing. Finding folks who know their way around farms is already challenging, not to mention the time it takes to train them. Plus, getting all those products from farms to your local grocery spot without skipping a beat is crucial. So, increasing U.S. dairy production volume to handle today’s demand isn’t some overnight fix. We’re talking solid planning, synchronized teamwork across the supply chain, and a long-haul pledge of resources and elbow grease.

A Balancing Act for U.S. Dairy Farmers: Between Opportunity and the Challenges of Expansion

Trump’s stance is a mixed bag for U.S. dairy farmers, filled with opportunities and hurdles. On the bright side, if more folks turn to local dairy products, that could boost the demand stateside. It’s like catching your big break and suddenly being in the spotlight.

But let’s keep it real—ramping up production isn’t as easy as flipping a switch. Farmers are at their current limits, and expanding operations means investing more time and cash. Without those Canadian imports, any production hiccups might lead to shortages, skyrocketing prices, and a shaky market.

Then there’s the whole quality game. Canadian dairy is top-notch, and matching that might not be easy. Farmers must follow strict guidelines and pay extra attention to detail. Cutting back on Canadian cheese might align with national goals, but it’s challenging for U.S. farmers to navigate growth and production issues.

Stories from the Kitchen: Where Canadian Dairy Creates Culinary Magic

Sitting in her Vermont kitchen, Carol enjoys her morning coffee, the aroma of freshly baked croissants mingling in the air. She’s a fan of Canadian dairy, exclaiming, “There’s this goat cheese from Quebec that’s just out of this world! Creamier, richer, just perfect.” Around here, she hasn’t found anything quite like it.

Halfway across the country, at a bustling café in Seattle, owner Todd insists he couldn’t craft his menu without the help of Canadian butter. “It’s the magic behind our unforgettable scones,” he boasts. Todd credits Canadian butter’s unique flavor and texture for drawing in customers, especially those with a Canadian heritage.

In Iowa, mom Jenna finds reassurance in Canadian dairy. “My son’s got food sensitivities, and Canadian milk works wonders for him,” she shares. Knowing she can safely nourish her child is far more critical than any trade dispute.

These tales highlight a frequently overlooked reality in trade discussions: it’s not merely about figures but these personal links. Canadian dairy holds a special place in many lives, whether it’s Carol’s cherished cheese, Todd’s essential scones, or Jenna’s comforting choice for her son’s well-being.

Imagining a U.S. Dairy Industry Without Canadian Imports: Expert Insights and Challenges

Imagining a future where the U.S. dairy industry thrives without help from Canada might sound straightforward, but there’s more to it. Jim Mulhern from the National Milk Producers Federation points out that while America could ramp up its dairy production, it still relies on Canada for those unique specialty cheeses made from goat milk. Meanwhile, Krysta Harden from the U.S. Dairy Export Council highlights that cutting off these imports could lead to chaos in supply chains and push prices up. Conversely, Canada’s trade minister, Mary Ng, emphasizes that Canadian imports are crucial in keeping the market steady and preventing shortages and price surges. Trade experts warn that reducing imports might stir up trade disputes, potentially impacting other agricultural sectors. Ultimately, the consensus is that achieving complete self-sufficiency would demand a lot of dedication and resources from U.S. farmers.

The Bottom Line

The effects of Trump’s economic strategy aren’t just numbers on paper—they’re flavors on our plates. Sure, some think boosting American self-reliance is the way to go. But let’s be honest, folks, we’re hooked on the deliciousness that Canadian dairy brings into our lives. From those rich artisan cheeses to standout goat’s milk products, it’s not just about stocking up. It’s about elevating the culinary experience. Trump’s folks might say we don’t need those imports, but let’s keep our eyes on the prize here. If we cut these tasty ties, we might find ourselves missing our favorite flavors and putting a strain on our local producers as they scramble to keep up with fresh demand. This isn’t just about trading goods; it’s about reshaping our dining tables and daily lives.

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Categories : Politics

Tags : Canadian dairy imports, specialty cheeses, Trump economic vision

The Looming Labor Crisis: How Mass Deportations Could Devastate the US Dairy Industry

Thursday, January 9th, 2025

Explore how Trump’s deportation plans could harm the US dairy industry. Can it survive without its crucial immigrant workers?

<a href="https://rss.com/podcasts/the-bullvine/1839973">112 The Looming Labor Crisis: How Mass Deportations Could Devastate the US Dairy Industry</a>

Imagine getting up early in California. Jorge is preparing for his day at the dairy farm. But Jorge is not there. Many immigrant workers like him are essential to the success of America’s dairy industry, but President-Elect Trump has said he wants to send Jorge back home. The challenge is our favorite dairy products might not be around without Jorge and people like him. Bruce, a dairy farmer in Idaho, says, “We wouldn’t survive without them.” He speaks for many others in the business. Over half of the U.S. dairy workers are immigrants, making up almost 80% of the workforce. These jobs are often not appealing to American workers. Not only is their role important, it can’t be replaced. There is, however, a big problem to solve. According to President-elect Trump’s plans, many immigrants will face deportation. This could significantly affect the dairy industry and put the whole economy at risk.

Factor	Statistics
Percentage of Immigrant Workers in Dairy	Up to 80%
Contribution to U.S. Milk Supply (by Immigrant-Staffed Farms)	79%
Estimated Economic Loss (50% Labor Loss)	$16 billion
Potential Increase in Food Prices (Post-Deportation)	10%
Dairy Farm Closures Risk	Over 7,000 farms

The Complex Web of Politics: Understanding Trump’s Immigration Policy and Its Implications

A big part of the immigration plan being discussed is deporting many people. Still, learning more about how complicated immigration policy is shows how it is linked to many different areas of life, including politics, the economy, and society. He talked a lot about the need for stricter controls during his campaign. He stated, “The current system is causing problems like economic stress and security risks.” Trump planned to stop illegal immigration, which he saw as costing American taxpayers money and taking jobs away from Americans. In a Pew Research report in 2022, the US had about 10.5 million illegal immigrants living in the U.S. This shows how Trump’s policies could affect this group. According to the Federation for American Immigration Reform, he said that these people cost taxpayers $116 billion every year.

Studies did not find any proof of the link he made between illegal immigration and crime. A study in the journal Social Science Quarterly found that there was no significant link between people coming to the countries illegally and violent crime. Still, voters are worried about safety and the economy, connected with President-elect Trump’s story. At rallies, Trump often said, “We are going to secure our borders and protect American lives.” However, this approach poses many problems for industries like dairy that depend on immigrant workers. Since 51% of dairy workers are immigrants, the push to deport them is linked to political goals, concerns about safety, and economic effects, which are causing debate in many communities and sectors.

Balancing America’s Dairy Needs and Labor Realities

The U.S. dairy industry is at a turning point and heavily relies on immigrant labor. 51% of dairy farm workers are immigrants, and 79% of U.S. milk comes from immigrant-run farms. The economic benefits of this labor force are significant. Many Americans are unwilling to work on dairy farms due to the demanding nature of the job. “I haven’t been able to hire an American since 1997,” said a farmer from Wisconsin. I tried!” This shows how hard it is to find U.S.-born workers for complex, low-paying jobs. The meat and dairy industries in the United States lack sufficient workers. Even with all the new technology, dairy farming still needs people to do the work, and a steady staff is essential. “The U.S.’s self-sufficiency is in danger if mass deportations continue,” said Rick Naerebout, CEO of the Idaho Dairymen’s Association. (Look into Midwest).

Farms and the agricultural economy depend on workers from other countries. To meet the needs of the American dairy industry now and in the future, hiring problems must be fixed. The U.S. dairy industry is concerned about the implications of President-elect Trump’s immigration plans. Up to 80% of the immigrant workers in the industry could be affected by his plan, which makes people worry about labor and milk production. Experts say there will be a significant shortage of workers. According to a study by Texas A&M University, a 50% reduction in unions could lead to a $5.8 billion drop in milk sales, costing the U.S. economy $16 billion. There could be huge problems with the farming infrastructure.

Dr. Linda Schwartz, an expert in agricultural labor markets, says that the lack of workers in the dairy industry also affects many other industries. When farms are having trouble, it affects the transportation, retail, and farming industries. Due to these shortages, there may be a 20% reduction in the transportation of dairy products. An industry analyst, John Kerrigan, says the possible effects on local economies are harmful. He says that higher costs and delays in the supply chain could cause prices to go up by 5 to 7 percent. Dr. Mariana Lopez also says that dairy farms are essential to the economies of rural areas and that a downturn could cost the state $50 million a year in tax money. To safeguard the U.S. dairy industry and its economic ties, it is imperative to implement sensible immigration and labor regulations.

There are economic worries about possible inflation. According to the Peterson Institute for International Economics, food prices are projected to increase by 10% due to a shortage of workers. This affects a lot of different areas of agriculture, not just dairy. People in the industry are worried. Many farms may face closure due to a lack of immigrant workers. Things are hard for dairy farmers right now. Bruce, a dairy farmer in Idaho, said, “Our five or six employees do work that no one else will do.” “We would not be able to live without them” (Dairy Herd Management). These stories show how important farms are and how this labor crisis is.

Because of the economic crisis, we must think and act immediately. The numbers show how vital immigrant workers are to dairy farms in the United States. As experts and lawmakers discuss these facts, finding a solution becomes more than necessary; it becomes urgent. Delaying action increases the risk to our dairy industry and its workforce. The urgency of this situation cannot be overstated, and it’s time for us to take action to protect our dairy industry and the livelihoods of those who depend on it.

Personal Stories of Strength and Dedication: Maria and Juan in America’s Dairy Industry

Let’s take Maria, an immigrant laborer on a dairy farm in Wisconsin. She came to the U.S. to improve her life more than ten years ago. She is now a significant contributor to the dairy farm she works at. She asks, “Who will care for the cows if we leave?” This shows how worried many immigrant workers are about being sent back to their home country. Behind every number in Maria’s story is a person whose life and family are in danger.

Maria is worried but not the only one who is worried. Juan, who also works in Idaho, agrees. He’s worked on dairy farms for almost 15 years, doing the work others don’t want to do. “We’re the ones who keep the milk coming,” he adds. Many people in the industry think this, highlighting a key workforce that doesn’t get noticed but is necessary to keep things running.

These personal stories show how hard it was for the immigrant workers and how big their hopes and dreams were. Like many others, Maria and Juan want to keep working in the industry and hope to become legal so their families can have better lives. They do vital work; they are the backbone of American dairy farms, and losing them would affect many places besides the barns.

Standing Firm: The U.S. Dairy Industry’s Quest for Adaptation Amidst Disruption

The U.S. dairy industry is working hard to deal with problems that might arise. Industry leaders and advocacy groups are working hard to find ways to protect the core of the American dairy business.

Making Current Workers Legal: The National Milk Producers Federation wants to give undocumented immigrant workers in the dairy industry permanent legal status. They think this is very important for the industry’s stability. Losing just half of these workers could cost the economy $16 billion (Investigate Midwest).
Reforming the Guestworker Program: Many people in the dairy industry want to change the H-2A farmworker program so that dairy farms can get the workers they need all year, and there aren’t as many job openings. For now, it mainly helps people who work during the summer. Dairy farms need workers yearly, so this reform could help them deal with their ongoing labor problems. It’s said Rick Naerebout, CEO of the Idaho Dairymen’s Association, “Without change, we’ll face a huge food security crisis.”
Supporting Comprehensive Immigration Reform: There is a growing call for comprehensive immigration reform to keep up with changing agricultural needs and ensure the dairy industry has a steady workforce. The goal is to recognize the critical role of immigrant workers and ensure they can legally and effectively do their jobs. A complete approach means not just quick fixes but also long-term answers to the problem of a lack of workers in agriculture.

The dairy industry is committed to getting past the problems that stand in its way. These ideas could protect not only the dairy industry but also the agricultural economy as a whole by combining economic need with support for human rights.

The Political Challenge: Navigating Immigration Reform Amidst Dairy Industry Fears

Understanding the politics behind immigration reform is just as challenging as understanding the laws. Since Trump’s team stepped in, the stakes for the dairy industry have gone through the roof. Trump’s plan to deport illegal immigrants could hurt the job market, which is essential for keeping this vital sector going. He says it will bring jobs back to the United States, but things might not turn out that way.

Let’s examine what critical political figures and groups have to say. Trump has made his views clear. In a 2016 campaign speech, he said, “We will take care of our American workers.” Many in his party agree with this. Their main goals are to secure the border and deport people.

On the other hand, Democrats often push for immigration reform, which could include a way to become a citizen. According to The New York Times, President Biden said, “Our immigration laws are out of date, and we need comprehensive reform to support industries like agriculture.” In line with this point of view, the dairy industry stresses the importance of a legal workforce for long-term success and growth.

When Congress tries to pass comprehensive immigration reform, it often encounters problems. The Citizenship Act of 2022, or House Bill H.R. 1177, tried to give undocumented immigrants legal ways to stay in the U.S. but didn’t get enough support from both parties (Congress.gov).

The focus goes beyond the policy to consider its future meaning. Politics and farm needs are at odds in the dairy industry. Changes to the law could be imminent, and a lot is at stake. It’s important for dairy farmers and others who want certainty in uncertain times to stay on top of this political maze.

Innovative Solutions for Dairy’s Labor Predicament: Embracing Technology and Creative Workforce Approaches

The U.S. dairy industry needs to find new ways to recruit workers and new technologies to help them. Because traditional workers are hard to find, the industry must find long-term solutions to keep things going.

Exploring Automation and Robotics in Dairy Farming

AI and robots are a big part of the answer in dairy farming. This technology reduces the amount of work that needs to be done by hand. For example, robotic milking systems have changed the game by producing 20% more milk.

But what does this mean for the people who already work? These systems cost $150,000 to $200,000 per unit, plus maintenance and training. Small farms may find it hard to handle these costs, but larger farms can save money and be more productive.

Alternative Labor Sources

Automation cannot do everything that people can, especially when it comes to tasks that require skill and decision-making. So, it’s essential to find new places to hire workers. One idea is to hire veterans or people moving from cities to rural areas. Moving is a big problem, but the U.S. Department of Labour can help.

A member of the Dairy Associations Coalition stressed the importance of using technology and training to grow the workforce.

The Feasibility of Long-Term Solutions

Cost, policy, and business cooperation are essential for these solutions to last. Tech investments need fast internet and school training to make a tech-savvy workforce.

The National Milk Producers Federation said, “We need both tech and labor reform for a strong dairy industry.” This means that policymakers must also work on immigration reforms.

To summarize, a way to deal with labor shortages is through automation, training, and policy changes. Despite labor problems, the industry must work hard and change its rules to protect its future.

Echoes of the Past: Navigating Current Dairy Labor Challenges with Historical Insights

The U.S. dairy industry’s difficulty in hiring is not a new problem. Similar problems have occurred in agriculture before, and those lessons can help us now.

The Bracero Program: Fixing Old Labour Problems: From 1942 to 1964, the Bracero Program sent more than 4.5 million Mexicans to work on U.S. farms. It helped fill job openings, but there were problems, like lousy working conditions and pay disputes (UC Davis—Migration Dialogue).
Lessons learned: Guest worker programs can help when there aren’t enough workers, but only if the workers are treated fairly and paid well. Good oversight is also necessary to prevent problems.
Reforms in the 1980s and Their Effects: The Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA) tried to curb illegal immigration in the 1980s. It legalized 2.7 million undocumented immigrants, many of whom worked in agriculture, stabilizing the job market (Economic Policy Institute).

As the dairy industry prepares for possible deportations, we can learn from the past that guest worker visas and changes in legal status can be invaluable in dealing with labor problems. We can also better deal with today’s problems if we learn from the past. There isn’t a single correct answer, but these examples from the past show how important it is to have policies that are fair and protect workers’ rights.

The Bottom Line

The U.S. dairy industry faces imminent peril due to mass deportations. Many of the people who work in the dairy industry are immigrants. They are essential to the stability of our food supply chain. Without a solution, the industry could find it hard to find workers and lose much money. It is essential to find a way to balance immigration rules with dairy farms’ economic needs right now. Those invested in the dairy industry understand it’s not just about policy; it’s about survival for farms and workers.

Advocating for new policies to provide legal pathways for workers can positively impact the future. Being informed and actively engaging in discussions for balanced solutions can positively impact this crucial industry. At this point, you should act because your participation can change things. How do you feel about coming up with solutions that meet both economic and moral needs? Let’s talk about how to protect America’s dairy farms in the future.

Key Takeaways:

The U.S. dairy industry heavily depends on immigrant labor, which makes up a significant portion of the workforce on dairy farms.
Potential mass deportations of undocumented immigrant workers could lead to a critical labor shortage, threatening the stability of the dairy industry.
The economic ramifications include potential billions in losses and increased food prices across the country.
Solutions proposed to address labor shortages include legalizing current workers and reforming guestworker programs to meet the industry’s year-round labor needs.
There is a pressing need for comprehensive immigration reform to balance immigration policy with the economic realities and needs of U.S. agriculture.
Innovative approaches such as automation and robotics in dairy farming may offer partial solutions to labor shortages over time.
The industry faces challenges in adapting to new labor dynamics while maintaining productivity and meeting consumer demands.

Summary:

The U.S. dairy industry is facing tough times as President-elect Trump’s immigration plans could lead to a big drop in its workforce. As many as 80% of workers in some areas are immigrants, and their deportation could cause serious damage to not just the dairy farms but also the communities that rely on them. Bruce, a dairy farmer, highlights the industry’s need for these workers, saying, “We wouldn’t survive without them.” With 51% of the industry’s workforce being immigrants, the work they do is crucial. Trump’s stricter immigration rules raise fears of a $5.8 billion hit to milk sales and a $16 billion loss to the wider economy. Critics argue that deporting illegal immigrants could actually harm the job market, and advocates are pushing for reforms—like legalizing current workers and improving guestworker programs—to keep America’s food supply stable and plentiful.

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Categories : Politics

Tags : Biden immigration reform agriculture, dairy industry immigrant labor, deportation effects dairy economy, economic impact dairy industry, food prices increase labor shortage, immigration reform agriculture, labor shortage dairy sector, milk production immigrant farms, Trump immigration policies impact

How a Trump Presidency Could Transform America’s Dairy Industry: Opportunities and Challenges for 2025 and Beyond

Saturday, December 21st, 2024

How will Trump’s presidency reshape the US dairy industry? What challenges and opportunities await dairy farmers in 2024 and beyond?

<a href="https://rss.com/podcasts/the-bullvine/1811343">E96 How a Trump Presidency Could Transform America’s Dairy Industry: Opportunities and Challenges for 2025 and Beyond</a>

The American dairy industry isn’t just about the milk in our fridge. It’s a key part of the US agricultural economy. This sector supports about three million jobs and adds over $628 billion annually [International Dairy Foods Association]. It faces tough challenges, like changing milk prices, trade barriers, and new consumer trends. As the second Trump administration approaches, many wonder if his policies could boost American dairy. In this article, we’ll look at how potential deregulation, trade deals and tax changes could affect the future of American dairy.

The Crossroads of Opportunity and Challenge

Despite its challenges, the US dairy industry is a resilient sector at a crossroads with challenges and opportunities. Market volatility, influenced by changing milk prices and unpredictable weather, impacts production. The USDA’s 2024 report notes that ‘average milk prices fell by 3% last quarter, adding financial stress on farms’ [USDA, 2024]. This uncertainty makes stable incomes tough for dairy farmers, but their resilience is a testament to the industry’s strength.

Consumer tastes are shifting, offering both hurdles and opportunities. Many now lean towards health-conscious, sustainable, and plant-based choices. “Alternative milk products gained 15% in market share this year,” demanding adaptation from traditional dairy farms [Nielsen, 2024]. Going organic and sustainable could offer a competitive edge, aligning with consumer preferences. Moreover, the market for specialty dairy products, like artisanal cheese, is growing, with a projected 12% rise in yearly sales [USDA, 2024].

The current state of the US dairy industry is complex. Despite market swings and foreign competition, there’s potential for those ready to innovate and meet consumer needs. The industry’s future depends on its ability to adapt and seize these opportunities.

Trump’s First Term: A Double-Edged Sword for the Dairy Industry

During Trump’s first term, deregulation was a significant focus in agriculture. It aimed to cut costs by removing complex rules, giving farmers more flexibility. However, the dairy industry faced challenging issues like unpredictable prices and market access.

Trade policies also played a crucial role. The change from NAFTA to USMCA aimed to improve the dairy market by lowering Canada’s tariffs. Although initially seen as a win, many farmers were skeptical about its impact on their profits. The US-China trade conflict also reduced dairy exports to China, adding financial stress.

To address these problems, the government offered direct payments to farmers impacted by trade wars. This move received mixed responses; it provided immediate help but didn’t fix deeper issues. Dairy industry leaders have called for policies that effectively use deregulation and market access while addressing domestic market saturation and global competition.

Opportunities Amidst Uncertainty: Navigating Policy Shifts in the Dairy Industry

A renewed Trump administration could significantly impact the dairy industry through potential shifts. One possibility is that regulations might be loosened to alleviate bureaucratic pressure on dairy farmers. Trump’s strategy often centers on cutting red tape to foster competitiveness, which could simplify rules for the dairy sector, reduce costs, and increase efficiency.

Trade policies are crucial to dairy’s profitability. Previous tariffs, like those on Chinese goods, suggest Trump might leverage tariffs in new negotiations. This could reopen trade talks, bringing risks and opportunities for US dairy exporters. Sharp tariffs might push foreign nations to agree to better terms, expanding international market access for American dairy products.

Subsidies could become a focal point. Trump has historically supported subsidies for key sectors. For dairy farmers, this could mean more excellent stability amid market shifts, with potential funding for price support and technology upgrades to boost productivity and reduce environmental impact. Such measures could enhance the industry’s resilience against economic fluctuations.

Trump could also renegotiate trade agreements to strengthen the dairy sector. Favoring bilateral deals over multilateral ones, he might secure new agreements that expand US dairy exports. Such deals could unlock new markets and improve American dairy’s global stature.

A second Trump administration might introduce complex yet promising changes to the dairy industry. While some policies could be contentious, they offer significant growth prospects for those who can adapt to the evolving political climate, instilling optimism in the industry’s future.

Charting the Course: Navigating the 2025 Dairy Landscape with Strategic Foresight

The US dairy industry will be under pressure in 2025 and must adopt flexible strategies. Global competition is intense, with foreign producers offering lower costs and facing fewer regulations. American dairy farmers must innovate and improve efficiency to stay viable.

Climate change further complicates matters. Unpredictable weather affects feed and milk production, forcing farmers to adjust. The push for sustainability adds another layer of complexity as farmers balance environmental and economic demands.

The federal milk marketing order (FMMO) system is due for an update. Farmers must work with policymakers to advocate for reforms as market dynamics evolve. Depending on how they are approached, changes to the FMMO can either boost competitiveness or cause friction.

Policy under the second Trump administration presents both opportunities and challenges. Regulatory compliance requires financial investments and adaptability to meet new standards.

Consumer preferences are shifting towards plant-based alternatives and transparency. This trend presents both a challenge and an opportunity for the dairy industry, which must address public perceptions and market demands through proactive marketing and product development.

Labor shortages, worsened by strict immigration policies and rural depopulation, continue to impact dairy farms. These issues highlight the need for resilience and strategic planning as the industry moves through 2025.

Harnessing Innovation: The Catalyst for a Modern Dairy Revolution

New technology is making the dairy industry more modern, efficient, and better for the environment. The Trump administration’s plans could support these changes by promoting advanced technologies. With fewer rules and tax breaks, using tools like automated milking machines, choosing the best genes for cows, and advanced farm systems might become more manageable, improving farms and producing more milk.

These technologies help farms work better and aim to protect the environment, which is a big goal for the future. Things like precision farming cut down waste and manage resources better, meeting customers’ wants for sustainable dairy products. For instance, one farm in Pennsylvania increased milk output by 30%. It cut labor costs by 20% using robot milking [Source: Agricultural Tech Study 2023]. This shows how new technology can make farms more profitable.

The government’s help is significant. Funding for research and development could encourage the use of new tech, and teaming up with universities, tech companies, and farmers could lead to significant discoveries. With Trump focusing on dairy technology, there might be a jump in economic growth and market competition. With strong policy support, these innovations could reshape the future of American dairy, leading to a new era of success.

Navigating Trade Tides: Balancing Risks and Rewards in the Dairy Sector

The global trade landscape presents opportunities and hurdles for the US dairy industry. Leadership is key in uncertain markets. With the possibility of a second Trump administration, dairy farmers are carefully eyeing global expansion. Trump’s America-first policies have global ramifications, affecting US export interactions. Renegotiating trade deals, like transforming NAFTA into the USMCA, could again yield benefits [Trade.gov].

But what does this mean for dairy? Could these negotiations boost exports? Experts believe focusing on quality could help US dairy access new markets, though international trade remains volatile. Tariffs as a tool for addressing unfair practices are concerning. Could higher US tariffs trigger retaliation? If so, new tariffs might hurt the US dairy industry’s competitiveness [Cato Institute].

Asia, with rising dairy demand, presents an opportunity. Under Trump, progress was made with countries like Japan through the U.S.-Japan Trade Agreement [USTR.gov]. Building on such deals could help expand US dairy globally. However, negotiations must align with American and foreign interests. China, a complex trade partner, must be noticed. Trump’s policies could either ease or complicate this, impacting dairy exports.

Finding a balance between protectionism and openness is crucial for US dairy to thrive globally in another Trump term. Industry leaders should strive for policies safeguarding domestic interests while unlocking global potential. These high-stakes negotiations will affect the livelihoods of American dairy farmers and the global market.

Sustainability at the Forefront: The Dairy Dilemma Under Trump 2.0

Farmers are worried about making dairies better for the environment. Problems like methane emissions and managing waste and water are significant challenges. What will the second Trump administration do about these issues?

During Trump’s first term, some environmental rules were relaxed to help businesses. This gave dairy farmers more freedom but also caused concern about the environment.

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) rules about waste and methane emissions might change again. While fewer rules could lower costs and increase profits, being eco-friendly is still essential, as more people want products that are good for the environment.

The future of dairy farming requires growth while being good for the environment, which means using new ideas and technology. Will Trump’s policies help or fail to meet people’s expectations? This balance is key to dairy success.

Voices from the Field: Navigating the Second Act of Trump’s Influence on Dairy

As the second Trump administration forms, US dairy farmers are voicing their hopes and worries about what lies ahead. Their perspectives highlight the mix of challenges and opportunities that new policies might bring.

John Miller, a third-generation dairy farmer in Wisconsin, holds cautious optimism. “During Trump’s first term, we benefited from some trade deals, but the instability was stressful. This time, we hope for steadier trade policies,” he emphasized, noting the need for consistency in their livelihood [Dairy Farmers Association, 2023].

Ellen White, who runs a mid-sized Pennsylvania farm, expressed concerns over labor policies. “Our industry heavily relies on immigrant workers. Strict immigration policies could hurt us,” she pointed out, stressing a vital issue the dairy sector faces [National Dairy Producers Coalition, 2023].

Industry leaders share these mixed feelings. Tom Johnson, head of a major dairy cooperative, sees innovation as key. “Support for new technologies can boost efficiency and sustainability. It’s our chance to lead on a global stage,” he said, identifying a significant growth opportunity [Dairy Innovation Center Report, 2023].

However, skepticism remains. Sarah Blake, a California farmer, remains doubtful. “Subsidies and investments are often promised but rarely reach smaller farms. We need policies that help everyone,” she asserted, calling for fair support [Independent Dairy Producers Association, 2023].

These views reflect the complex mix of anticipation and worry as dairy farmers prepare for what’s ahead with the second Trump administration. Their insights are essential, guiding policymakers while reminding them of the realities at the grassroots level.

The Bottom Line

The story of America’s dairy industry under Trump’s second term is a tale of opportunities and challenges. Protectionist policies and regulatory changes are creating mixed results for dairy farmers. On one hand, trade shifts and growth fueled by innovation offer hope. On the other, sustainability requirements and market volatility present formidable challenges. How Trump’s policies affect globalization and environmental rules might reshape the industry’s operations.

Sustainability, often thought to conflict with economic growth, calls for innovative solutions that marry efficiency with environmental care. The real task isn’t just to navigate these changes but to set oneself up for success despite them. So, the big question for every dairy industry player is: How will you help build a strong and prosperous future in this changing world? Think about your role and the legacy you aim to create. By tackling these challenges directly, the industry can secure a future that honors tradition while embracing new ideas.

Key Takeaways:

Trump’s policies significantly impact key dairy-producing states, with Wisconsin being a significant focus.
The second Trump administration could alter the global competition landscape, affecting tariff implications for the dairy industry.
Strategic foresight is crucial for dairy farmers to convert potential challenges into growth opportunities.
Policy and agricultural expectations are essential in shaping the dairy industry’s future.
Industry insights from experts highlight the importance of proactive measures to handle workforce and export challenges.
Sustainability remains a critical yet challenging priority for the industry during the new administration.

Summary:

As the second Trump administration unfolds, the U.S. dairy industry stands at a crucial juncture, poised between opportunity and uncertainty. The sector must strategically navigate potential changes in trade relations, technological advancements, and sustainability demands. The echoes of Trump’s policies will resonate through milk barns, pastures, and global markets. Challenges, such as changing milk prices, trade barriers, and evolving consumer trends, demand attention. While Trump’s first term focused on deregulation, market access issues remain. The industry is urged to leverage loosened regulations and tariffs while addressing domestic saturation and global competition. The renewed administration may bring complex changes, offering growth prospects for adaptable entities. As 2025 approaches, the industry faces pressure from climate change and sustainability demands, necessitating flexible strategies.

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Categories : Politics

Tags : dairy industry challenges, dairy market access, deregulation in dairy, global competition in dairy, milk prices, subsidies for dairy farmers, trade barriers, US agricultural economy, USMCA impact

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