Archive for Dairy Markets – Page 2

Whey Prices Surge: Boosting Class III Dairy Values and Shaking Up the Market

Discover how surging whey prices are boosting Class III dairy values and shaking up the market. What’s driving this change and what does it mean for the industry?

black and white labeled bottle

After dropping to a low of 36 cents on April 12 and 15, the whey powder market has shown significant recovery. The CME spot dry whey price has surged to 48 cents per pound, marking the highest price since late February. 

“Domestic demand for high-protein whey products has given a sizable boost to dairy protein values, and processors have directed much of the whey stream into high-protein concentrates,” said Sarina Sharp, analyst with the Daily Dairy Report.

According to USDA data, production of whey protein concentrate (WPC), which contains 50% to 89.9% protein, reached an all-time high in 2023. In the first four months of this year, output for both WPC with 50% to 89.9% protein and whey protein isolates (WPI), which contain at least 90% protein, increased by 9.7% and 9.6%, respectively, compared to the same period in 2022. 

WPC and WPI are utilized as ingredients in: 

  • Infant formula
  • Sports drinks
  • Nutrition shakes

These products are high in protein. In comparison, lower-protein whey powder is often used in animal feed or in human food products, such as baked goods, chocolate and other candies, fortified dairy productsice cream, infant formula, and clinical nutrition products. 

“Increasing output of WPC and WPI, however, has not been enough to push whey powder production below early-2023’s already depressed volumes,” Sharp said. “The combination of modestly higher output and slower exports pushed whey powder prices to six-month lows in mid-April.”

Whey powder production for the January through April period increased by 1.9% compared to the previous year. However, more recently, dry whey production has been slowing down. 

“Plant downtime and the use of whey solids for higher protein concentrates has kept dry whey availability in check,” wrote USDA’s Dairy Market News in a recent report.

“Tighter whey powder inventories have propelled spot whey prices up an impressive 30%, or 11 cents, in less than two months,” Sharp noted. “While most of the drama in the Class III space has occurred in cheese markets, whey has played an important supporting role. Its two-month rally has boosted Class III values by 66 cents.”

Key Takeaways:

  • The whey powder market has rebounded, climbing to 48 cents per pound by late February from mid-April lows.
  • Domestic demand for high-protein whey products has substantially buoyed dairy protein values.
  • Whey protein concentrate (WPC) and whey protein isolates (WPI) production reached record highs in the first four months of 2023.
  • WPC and WPI are popular ingredients in high-protein products like infant formula and sports drinks, while lower-protein whey is used in animal feed and various food products.
  • Despite increased WPC and WPI output, overall whey powder production remains slightly higher than earlier 2023 levels due to slower exports.
  • Reduced dry whey production is due to plant downtime and diversion of whey solids to higher protein concentrates.
  • Tightened whey powder inventories have resulted in a 30% increase in spot whey prices over less than two months.
  • The rally in whey prices has contributed to a 66-cent boost in the Class III values.

Summary:

The whey powder market has seen a significant recovery after dropping to a low of 36 cents on April 12 and 15. The CME spot dry whey price has surged to 48 cents per pound, marking the highest price since late February. Domestic demand for high-protein whey products has given a significant boost to dairy protein values, and processors have directed much of the whey stream into high-protein concentrates. Production of whey protein concentrate (WPC) and whey protein isolates (WPI) reached an all-time high in 2023, with output increasing by 9.7% and 9.6% compared to the same period in 2022. WPC and WPI are used as ingredients in infant formula, sports drinks, and nutrition shakes. However, increasing output of WPC and WPI has not been enough to push whey powder production below early-2023’s already depressed volumes. Whey powder production for the January through April period increased by 1.9% compared to the previous year. Tighter whey powder inventories have propelled spot whey prices up an impressive 30%, or 11 cents, in less than two months.

Unexpected Trends in the U.S. Dairy Industry: Fluid Milk Sales and Cheese Exports Rise Amid Steady Decline in Milk Production

Discover why U.S. fluid milk sales and cheese exports are surging despite a decline in production. How is this shift impacting the dairy market? Read more to find out.

person using MacBook pro

Unexpectedly for the U.S. dairy business, fluid milk sales and cheese exports are rising even as milk output steadily declines. Adjusting for the leap year, fluid milk sales jumped by about 100 million pounds in the first four months of the year over the previous year. Cheese exports concurrently reach a record 8.7 percent of total output from February to April, the most ever for any three months or even one month. These unexpected patterns can be attributed to a variety of factors, including changing consumer preferences, global market dynamics, and technological advancements in dairy production. The wider consequences for the dairy industry, such as shifts in market share and potential economic impacts, are also investigated in this paper.

Despite the challenges of falling milk output, the U.S. dairy industry is demonstrating remarkable resilience with the rise in fluid milk and cheese exports. This unexpected trend holds promising implications for producers and consumers, instilling a sense of hope and optimism in the industry.

As the dairy industry negotiates these changes, fast rises in cheese prices have significantly raised the Class III price, underlining the market’s reaction. Examine the elements underlying these patterns and the possible long-term effects on domestic consumption and foreign commerce.

A Surprising Rebound: Fluid Milk Sales Surge Amid Shifting Consumer Preferences

MonthFluid Milk Sales (million pounds)
May 20224,500
June 20224,450
July 20224,470
August 20224,480
September 20224,460
October 20224,490
November 20224,500
December 20224,510
January 20234,520
February 20234,530
March 20234,550
April 20234,600

With a roughly 100 million pound gain and a 0.7 percent leap year-adjusted surge, this unprecedented spike in fluid milk sales highlights a dramatic change in consumer behavior. Rising health awareness and the availability of dairy substitutes have usually been causing fluid milk intake to drop. But this increase might point to changing market dynamics or fresh enthusiasm for milk’s nutritious value.

Dairy ProductChange in Consumption (Percentage)
Fluid Milk+0.7%
American Cheese-1.2%
Yogurt+2.4%
Non-American Cheeses+1.5%
Butter-0.8%
Ice Cream-1.0%

The changes in domestic dairy consumption create a complicated scene for the American dairy business. While butter, ice cream, and American cheese consumption have dropped, fluid milk sales may have increased due to changing habits or knowledge of nutritional value. Growing worries about health, animal welfare, and environmental damage define this downturn.

On the other hand, demand for yogurt and non-American cheeses has surged. Yogurt’s probiotics and health advantages attract health-conscious customers. Non-American cheeses benefit from their superior quality, appeal to refined tastes, and clean-label tendencies.

This difference draws attention to shifting customer demands and the need for dairy farmers to adjust. Stakeholders trying to seize market possibilities in a dynamic economic environment must first understand these trends.

American Cheese Exports Set New Record: A Game-Changer for the U.S. Dairy Market

The U.S. dairy market has witnessed a notable shift in export trends over the past year, which can largely be attributed to evolving global demand and intensified trade relations. Cheese exports, in particular, have set new benchmarks, reflecting both opportunities and challenges in the international marketplace. Below is a detailed table outlining the changes in cheese exports over the past year: 

MonthCheese Exports (Million Pounds)Year-over-Year Change (%)
January 2023605.2%
February 2023584.9%
March 2023657.5%
April 2023709.8%
May 20237211.1%
June 2023688.3%
July 20237510.7%
August 20238012.5%
September 20237811.4%
October 20238213.2%
November 20238514.1%
December 20238815.3%
  • Key Export Markets: Japan, Mexico, South Korea
  • Emerging Opportunities: Southeast Asia, Middle East
  • Challenges: Trade policies, supply chain disruptions

With 8.7% of total output moving abroad, the United States saw an increase in cheese exports between February and April. This fantastic number emphasizes the increasing worldwide market for American cheese. The milestone points to a change in the strategic emphasis of the U.S. dairy sector as producers show their capacity to meet and surpass the demands of foreign markets, therefore implying a future in which exports will be more important economically.

Milk Production Plunge: Unpacking the Multifaceted Decline in the U.S. Dairy Sector 

In examining the shifting landscape of the U.S. dairy market, it’s imperative to consider the nuances in milk productiontrends that have unfolded over the past year. These trends highlight the recent downturn in production and provide a lens through which we can better understand the broader dynamics at play. 

MonthMilk Production (billion pounds)% Change (Year-over-Year)
April 202218.1-0.4%
March 202217.9-0.5%
February 202216.0-0.6%
January 202217.5-0.7%
December 202117.7-0.8%
November 202116.8-0.9%
October 202116.9-1.0%
September 202116.0-1.1%
August 202118.0-1.2%
July 202118.2-1.3%
June 202117.8-1.4%
May 202118.1-1.5%

Adjusting for the leap year, the continuous reduction in U.S. milk production—0.4 percent in April—has lasted 10 months. For the dairy sector, this development begs serious questions.

Many factors are driving this slump. First, dairy farmers have been under pressure from changing consumer tastes that influence demand. Growing demand for plant-based and dairy substitutes is reshaping the market share controlled initially by cow’s milk. Furthermore, changing customer behavior and ethical and environmental issues influence production levels.

The low cow count raises yet another critical question. Modern and conventional dairy states have battled dwindling or stagnating cow numbers. Growth patterns in cow counts have slowed dramatically in contemporary dairy states since 2008; some years even show reductions. This has lowered milk availability, together with a volatile macroeconomic backdrop.

Dairy farmers also face many operational difficulties, such as supply chain interruptions, personnel shortages, and the need for fresh technologies. These problems tax the industry’s ability to sustain past output levels even as manufacturers seek creative ideas.

Dealing with these entwined problems would help to stop the drop in output and guarantee the resilience and sustainability of the American dairy market against changing consumer tastes and financial uncertainty.

Turbulent Trends: How Consumer Values and Supply Chain Challenges Propelled Cheese Prices Skyward

The past year has witnessed significant fluctuations in the dairy market, with particular emphasis on cheese prices, which have experienced rapid increases. This section breaks down the price trends over the past year to provide a comprehensive understanding of the market dynamics. 

MonthClass III Milk Price (per cwt)Cheese Price (per lb)Butter Price (per lb)
May 2022$25.21$2.29$2.68
June 2022$24.33$2.21$2.65
July 2022$22.52$2.00$2.61
August 2022$20.10$1.95$2.50
September 2022$21.86$2.10$2.55
October 2022$21.15$2.03$2.53
November 2022$20.72$2.01$2.60
December 2022$21.55$2.05$2.58
January 2023$20.25$1.98$2.55
February 2023$18.67$1.85$2.50
March 2023$19.97$1.92$2.55
April 2023$20.25$2.01$2.52
May 2023$23.30$2.35$2.70

Many complex elements reflecting more significant market dynamics drove the increase in cheese prices throughout May. The dairy sector has seen a paradigm change as consumer tastes center on health, environmental issues, and animal welfare more and more. These higher ethical standards call for more rigorous behavior, which drives manufacturing costs. A turbulent macroeconomic climate, ongoing supply chain interruptions, and workforce difficulties further limit cheese supplies. Cheese prices skyrocketed as demand for premium dairy products continued locally and abroad, and supply ran low.

The May Class III price, which rose by $3.05/cwt from the previous month, was substantially affected by this price increase. Primarily representing the worth of milk used for cheese manufacture, the Class III price is a benchmark for the larger dairy market. This sharp rise emphasizes how sensitive commodity prices are to quick changes in specific sectors, stressing the cheese market’s importance in the national dairy economy. Dairy farmers must balance growing expenses with remaining profitable while meeting changing customer expectations.

The Bottom Line

The surprising surge in fluid milk sales and record-breaking cheese exports within the changing terrain of the U.S. dairy industry contrasts sharply with the continuous drop in milk output. The 0.7 percent rise in milk sales points to a change in consumer behavior, motivated by a fresh enthusiasm for classic dairy products. On the other hand, American cheese’s demand internationally has skyrocketed; 8.7% of output is exported, suggesting great worldwide demand and a possible new income source for home producers.

Adjusting for the leap year, the consistently declining milk output—now at ten straight months of year-over-year decline—showcases important production sector issues probably related to feed price volatility and long-term changes in dairy farming techniques. Reflecting these supply restrictions and shifting market dynamics, the substantial rise in cheese prices fuels a significant increase in the May Class III price.

These entwined tendencies point to both possibilities and challenges for American dairy farmers, implying a tricky balancing act between satisfying home demand, profiting from foreign markets, and negotiating manufacturing efficiency and cost control.

Key Takeaways:

In an evolving landscape marked by shifting consumer preferences and unprecedented export achievements, the U.S. dairy market has experienced stark contrasts in its fluid milk sales, cheese exports, and milk production. Below are the key takeaways from these recent developments: 

  • U.S. fluid milk sales rose by nearly 100 million pounds, or 0.7% on a leap year-adjusted basis, during the first four months of this year.
  • While domestic consumption of most major dairy products decreased, yogurt and non-American types of cheese saw increased domestic demand.
  • A record 8.7% of total U.S. cheese production was exported between February and April, marking an all-time high for this period.
  • April 2023 witnessed a 0.4% decline in U.S. milk production compared to April 2022, continuing a ten-month trend of lower year-on-year production figures.
  • Cheese prices surged in May, driving the May Class III price up by $3.05 per hundredweight from the previous month.

Summary: 

The U.S. dairy industry has experienced a significant increase in fluid milk sales and cheese exports, despite declining milk output. Fluid milk sales jumped by about 100 million pounds in the first four months of the year, while cheese exports reached a record 8.7% of total output from February to April. This unexpected trend can be attributed to changing consumer preferences, global market dynamics, and technological advancements in dairy production. The wider consequences for the dairy industry include shifts in market share and potential economic impacts. Despite these challenges, the U.S. dairy industry is demonstrating remarkable resilience with the rise in fluid milk and cheese exports. This trend holds promising implications for producers and consumers, instilling a sense of hope and optimism in the industry. However, as the dairy industry negotiates these changes, fast rises in cheese prices have significantly raised the Class III price, underlining the market’s reaction. American cheese exports set a new record for the U.S. dairy market, reflecting both opportunities and challenges in the international marketplace. Addressing these entwined problems would help prevent the drop in output and guarantee the resilience and sustainability of the American dairy market against changing consumer tastes and financial uncertainty.

Learn More:

For further insights into this evolving landscape, consider exploring the following articles: 

Global Dairy Trade Index Dips: Price Surge in Butter, Skim Milk Powder, and Anhydrous Milk Fat

Understand the 0.5% drop in the Global Dairy Trade index, even though butter and skim milk powder saw price increases. What does this mean for the dairy industry’s future?

The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) index is a crucial barometer for dairy prices worldwide, reflecting supply and demand dynamics within the dairy industry. It’s significant as it guides stakeholders, from farmers to large dairy corporations, in making informed decisions. On Tuesday, the GDT index experienced a slight dip, falling by 0.5% during the trading session.

ProductPrice (per metric ton)Change (%)
Butter$7,350+6.2%
Lactose$801+1.9%
Skim Milk Powder$2,766+0.7%
Cheddar Cheese$4,205-1.0%
Anhydrous Milk Fat$7,317+1.2%
Whole Milk Powder$3,394-2.5%

The latest trading session saw mixed performances across different dairy products. Specifically, the GDT index fell 0.5%, indicating a slight overall decline. While prices were up for butter, lactose, and skim milk powder, this positive trend was counterbalanced by decreases in anhydrous milk fat, Cheddar cheese, and whole milk powder. Additionally, buttermilk powder and Mozzarella cheese were not traded during this session.

Butter saw a substantial increase, climbing 6.2% to $7,350 per metric ton, translating to $3.33 per pound. Lactose experienced a rise of 1.9%, reaching $801 per metric ton, or $0.36 per pound. Skim milk powder also went up by 0.7%, priced at $2,766 per metric ton, or $1.25 per pound. 

Conversely, anhydrous milk fat fell 2.5% to $7,317 per metric ton, or $3.31 per pound. Cheddar cheese decreased by 1% to $4,205 per metric ton, equivalent to $1.90 per pound. Whole milk powder dropped 1.7% to $3,394 per metric ton, or $1.53 per pound.

Interestingly, both buttermilk powder and Mozzarella cheese were notably absent from Tuesday’s trading session. This lack of availability could potentially tighten supply chains, leading to increased prices for these products in future sessions. With fewer items on offer, winning bidders might have concentrated their purchasing power on the other available products, slightly shifting market dynamics. Keeping an eye on future sessions where these products are reintroduced could provide valuable insights into their influence on overall market trends.

This session saw robust activity, with 106 winning bidders engaging in 21 rounds of competitive bidding. Collectively, these participants procured an impressive 16,787 metric tons of dairy products. Such high levels of participation demonstrate strong demand, despite the slight decline in the overall Global Dairy Trade index.

Let’s dive into the specifics of the pricing changes for each product: 

Butter: Butter prices saw a significant increase of 6.2%, rising to $7,350 per metric ton, or $3.33 per pound. This notable rise indicates a strong demand for butter on the market. 

Lactose: Lactose experienced a modest increase of 1.9%, bringing the price to $801 per metric ton, or $0.36 per pound. This reflects a steady interest in lactose from buyers. 

Skim Milk Powder: This product observed a healthy upward trend of 3.0%, with prices reaching $2,766 per metric ton, or $1.25 per pound. The rise in skim milk powder prices showcases its growing demand. 

Cheddar Cheese: Despite other product price increases, Cheddar cheese saw a slight decline of 1%, dropping to $4,205 per metric ton, or $1.90 per pound. This minor dip could suggest a fluctuation in market preference or supply. 

Anhydrous Milk Fat: This commodity reported a small bump of 0.9% in its pricing, now at $7,317 per metric ton, or $3.31 per pound. The marginal increase points to a consistent demand for anhydrous milk fat. 

Whole Milk Powder: Whole milk powder prices fell by 1.7%, decreasing to $3,394 per metric ton, or $1.53 per pound. The decline could indicate a shift in buyer preference or market dynamics. 

These variances in product pricing highlight the dynamic nature of the global dairy market, influenced by fluctuating supply and demand factors.

In summary, the Global Dairy Trade index took a slight dip of 0.5%, reflecting a mixed bag of price changes across various dairy products. Notably, butter saw a significant increase of 6.2%, while Cheddar cheese and whole milk powder experienced declines of 1% and 2.5%, respectively. These fluctuating prices underscore the dynamic and often unpredictable nature of the dairy market

Looking ahead, these changes may signal a period of adjustment within the global dairy market. The rise in prices for products like butter and anhydrous milk fat suggests a strong demand in specific segments, whereas the drop in whole milk powder and Cheddar cheese prices could indicate potential oversupply or shifting consumer preferences. As market participants continue to navigate these fluctuations, staying informed and adaptable will be key to leveraging opportunities and mitigating risks.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Global Dairy Trade index dropped by 0.5% in the latest trading session.
  • Butter, lactose, and skim milk powder prices increased.
  • Prices fell for anhydrous milk fat, Cheddar cheese, and whole milk powder.
  • Buttermilk powder and Mozzarella cheese were not available in this session.
  • 106 winning bidders purchased a total of 16,787 metric tons of dairy products.
  • Price highlights include butter at $7,350 per metric ton and Cheddar cheese at $4,205 per metric ton.

Summary:

The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) index fell by 0.5% during the trading session, but butter prices increased by 6.2% to $7,350 per metric ton. Lactose prices rose by 1.9% to $801 per metric ton, skim milk powder prices rose by 0.7% to $2,766 per metric ton, anhydrous milk fat prices fell by 2.5% to $7,317 per metric ton, cheddar cheese prices decreased by 1% to $4,205 per metric ton, and whole milk powder prices dropped by 1.7% to $3,394 per metric ton. The absence of buttermilk powder and Mozzarella cheese from Tuesday’s trading session may tighten supply chains and lead to increased prices in future sessions.

Dairy Margin Watch June: Strong Class III Milk Prices Amid Surging Whey and Cheese Demand

Explore how robust Class III Milk prices and soaring whey and cheese demand influence dairy margins in June. What role will Mexico’s demand play in shaping future trends?

June experienced stable dairy margins, notably increasing during the spot period due to high Class III Milk prices. This rise provided much-needed support in an otherwise flat margin trend. The resilience in Class III Milk prices was crucial in maintaining market stability during the volatile spot period. While margins remained steady, the strong demand for Class III Milk underscores market forces and exciting potential growth areas for industry stakeholders.

Understanding the Forces Behind Rising Class III Milk Prices 

MonthClass III Milk Price (per cwt)Change from Previous Month
January$18.50+0.25
February$19.00+0.50
March$19.75+0.75
April$20.00+0.25
May$20.25+0.25
June$20.30+0.05

Dairy farmers and market analysts have noticed rising Class III milk prices. Strong cheese and whey demand are key drivers.

Cheese Demand: Mexico’s appetite for U.S. cheese has surged, reflected in record-setting exports. This strong demand directly impacts Class III milk prices since cheese production relies heavily on this milk.

Whey Demand: Whey is also seeing renewed interest. Tight whey powder inventories pushed prices to their highest since February, increasing Class III milk prices further. This 30% price spike underscores whey’s significant role in future milk contracts.

These factors and slower shipments to China and Southeast Asia have shifted focus to Mexico, bolstering demand and sustaining high-Class III milk prices. Understanding this helps you see the link between dairy product demand and milk pricing.

Navigating Recent Trends in the Whey Market 

MonthSpot Whey Price (per lb)Price Change (cents)
April 2023$0.37
May 2023$0.44+7
June 2023 (first half)$0.48+4

Let’s examine the recent trends in the whey market. Over the past two months, whey prices have surged by about 30%, or 11 cents, significantly impacting the dairy sector. 

This increase is primarily due to tighter whey powder inventories, highlighting how low stock levels push prices higher. On the demand side, renewed strength, especially from key markets, has also bolstered whey prices. 

The ripple effects of this price surge are evident in the Class III futures market, contributing to a notable gain of about 66 cents. This showcases whey’s importance in shaping Class III Milk prices and influencing dairy margins. 

Given the current scenario, it is imperative for those involved in the dairy industry, including producers and traders, to remain vigilant. A comprehensive understanding of these trends can significantly aid in navigating the market and making informed decisions.

The Unwavering Impact of Mexican Demand on U.S. Cheese Prices 

ProductApril 2022 (million pounds)April 2023 (million pounds)Change (%)
Total Dairy Exports to Mexico124.6142.914.7%
Cheese Exports to Mexico32.638.016.6%
Butter Production197.4207.85.3%
Cheese Production1,166.11,187.01.8%
Mozzarella Production383.6407.16.1%
Cheddar Production332.4303.8-8.6%

Cheese demand plays a pivotal role in the dairy market, mainly thanks to Mexico’s strong appetite for U.S. cheese, which has led to record-high prices. In April, cheese exports to Mexico hit 38 million pounds, highlighting this continued trend. 

This demand positively impacts not just cheese but the entire U.S. dairy sector. Higher cheese prices contribute to rising Class III Milk prices, offering stability to dairy margins even as shipments to markets like China and Southeast Asia slow down. 

It’s essential to remain aware of potential changes, such as economic fluctuations in Mexico, that could affect future demand. For now, Mexico’s consistent cheese demand supports strong U.S. dairy margins.

 U.S. dairy exports to Mexico surged in April, hitting 142.9 million pounds—up 18.3 million from last year. Cheese exports set a new record at 38 million pounds, surpassing the previous high in February. This highlights Mexico’s vital role in the U.S. dairy market, as exports to China and Southeast Asia slow. 

With 30% of U.S. dairy exports going to Mexico, their market’s demand significantly supports American dairy prices

In April, the U.S. shipped 142.9 million pounds of dairy products to Mexico, up 18.3 million from last year. This was the second-highest monthly export level on record. Cheese exports alone hit a record 38 million pounds, showing strong demand for U.S. dairy. 

Since early 2023, demand from China and Southeast Asia has decreased, but Mexico has helped fill the gap. This demand has been crucial in stabilizing prices and preventing a potential downturn. 

Mexican demand plays a vital role in U.S. dairy exports. As shipments to other regions slow, this strong market helps maintain prices despite external challenges.

Claudia Sheinbaum’s presidential win has raised questions about the Mexican Peso and future U.S. dairy exports. Analysts worry her socialist policies could weaken the Peso, which dropped 5% in two days, reaching its lowest since October 2023. This devaluation might make U.S. dairy products pricier for Mexican buyers, possibly reducing demand. With 30% of U.S. dairy exports going to Mexico, a prolonged weak Peso could impact the U.S. dairy market. Exporters may need to find new markets or tweak pricing to keep their foothold in Mexico.

April’s Dairy Production: Butter’s Rise and Cheese’s Mixed Signals

MonthPrice (cents/lb)
January250
February255
March260
April265
May270
June275

In April, butter output reached 207.8 million pounds, marking a 5.3% increase from the previous year. On the other hand, cheese production showed a mixed pattern. Total cheese output was up by 1.8%, reaching 1.187 billion pounds. However, within this category, mozzarella production surged by an impressive 6.1%. Cheddar cheese output saw a decline of 8.6% compared to last year.

Strategic Moves: Leveraging Historical Margins for Future Gains

Intelligent investors are extending coverage in deferred marketing periods to leverage strong margins. By locking in positions at or above the 90th percentile of the past decade, they’re ensuring stability and profitability despite market fluctuations. This proactive strategy, backed by historical data, helps make informed strategic decisions.

The Bottom Line

June’s Dairy Margin Watch highlights critical market drivers. Class III Milk prices remain high due to solid cheese demand and tighter whey powder supplies. Increased U.S. dairy exports to Mexico also play a crucial role despite potential economic concerns following recent political changes. April’s dairy production data shows a rise in butter output but mixed cheese production signals. 

Understanding these can help dairy producers make intelligent decisions to protect margins. Now is an excellent time to consider leveraging historically strong margins by extending coverage in deferred periods. Stay proactive and informed. 

For tailored strategies, consider subscribing to the CIH Margin Watch report. Visit www.cihmarginwatch.com

Key Takeaways:

Welcome to this month’s Dairy Margin Watch. Here are the key takeaways from the latest trends and developments shaping the dairy market: 

  • Class III Milk prices remain strong due to robust demand for cheese and whey.
  • CME spot whey prices have surged by 30% over the past two months, reaching their highest level since February.
  • U.S. dairy exports to Mexico saw a significant increase, with cheese exports setting new records.
  • Concerns arise over the potential impact of recent political changes in Mexico on the value of the Peso and subsequent dairy demand.
  • April’s dairy production statistics reveal a rise in butter output, but mixed signals for cheese production, particularly a decline in Cheddar output.
  • Strategic coverage in deferred marketing periods is crucial to leverage historically strong margins.

Summary: 

June’s dairy margins increased significantly due to high Class III Milk prices, which were crucial for maintaining market stability during the volatile spot period. Key drivers of rising milk prices include cheese demand and whey demand, with Mexico’s appetite for U.S. cheese leading to record-setting exports. Whey demand is also seeing renewed interest, with tight whey powder inventories pushing prices to their highest since February. Mexican demand plays a pivotal role in the dairy market, mainly due to Mexico’s strong appetite for U.S. cheese, leading to record-high prices. In April, cheese exports to Mexico reached 38 million pounds, highlighting this continued trend. However, Claudia Sheinbaum’s presidential win has raised questions about the Mexican Peso and future U.S. dairy exports, as analysts worry that her socialist policies could weaken the Peso, making U.S. dairy products pricier for Mexican buyers and potentially reducing demand. Understanding these factors can help dairy producers make intelligent decisions to protect margins and leverage historically strong margins by extending coverage in deferred periods.

Flying Through Uncertainty: Domestic Cheese Demand Spurs Record Highs in Class III Futures Amid Global Market Shifts

Discover how surging domestic cheese demand is driving Class III futures to record highs. Can U.S. producers keep up amid global market shifts and rising competition?

Robust domestic cheese demand has pushed Class III futures to unprecedented heights. Reflecting worries about U.S. cheese production capacity and intense competition in export markets, third-quarter contracts shot an average of $21.28 per cwt. Attracting new overseas customers will be difficult given that U.S. cheese prices are among the highest worldwide, affecting long-term prospects.

Although high prices discourage new business, domestic consumption lowers cheese inventory. This results in a complicated situation where limited production capacity and competitive exports cause restrictions even as strong demand drives short-term advantages. These dynamics will define present results and future sustainability.

CommodityAvg PriceQty Traded4 wk Trend
Cheese Blocks$1.944517Stable
Cheese Barrels$2.006013Increase
Butter$3.094010Increase
Non-Fat Dry Milk$1.194026Stable
Whey$0.47503Increase

We will investigate the extent and ramifications of these events for the U.S. cheese industry.

Global Shifts: Strategic Cheese Production Adjustments and Their Rippling Effects on the U.S. Market 

RegionProjected Increase (%)Key Factors
Europe3.5%Decrease in fluid milk demand, better margins in cheese production
New Zealand4.0%Higher profitability in cheese, decline in milk powder prices
Australia2.8%Shift from milk powder to cheese due to higher margins
United States2.3%Strong domestic demand, export competition

The global cheese market is undergoing significant changes. USDA experts in Australia, New Zealand, and Europe are anticipating strategic surges in cheese output. This shift is driven by two main trends: a decrease in fluid milk consumption and declining profit margins for milk powder. These forecasts indicate that processors in these regions are adapting to the increased value that cheese markets offer and are prepared to redirect more milk into cheese production. As fluid milk loses its appeal and milk powder becomes less profitable, producers are increasingly focusing on more lucrative cheese manufacturing.

Despite the projected global expansion of cheese production, the U.S. dairy sector has demonstrated remarkable resilience. Currently, robust domestic demand is driving record Class III futures and high U.S. cheese prices. This resilience, coupled with the strategic changes in the global cheese market, is helping to maintain a positive outlook and keep U.S. cheese competitive in other markets.

The expected worldwide rise in cheese output points to fewer export prospects, even if today’s market supports high local pricing and demand. This might finally influence Class III values and cheese prices, stressing the intricate link between the U.S. market and worldwide production policies.

Weathering the Storm: How Strategic Moves and Climate Trends Propel U.S. Cheese Prices

Several key factors are contributing to the current surge in U.S. cheese pricing. Notably, record-breaking cheese shipments from November through April have significantly impacted American cheese supplies. This decrease in supply, combined with strong domestic demand fueled by effective promotional strategies from major retailers, has further tightened the market.

Grasping the strategic movements and climatic patterns that influence U.S. cheese pricing is crucial. An unusually hot June is forecasted for the Midwest, and adverse weather conditions, including searing temperatures in California and the Southwest, have curtailed milk production. These factors are driving up cheese prices and straining the milk supply, thereby creating an expected but challenging market situation. This understanding empowers policymakers to make informed decisions.

Market Surge: Dynamic Movements in the CME Spot Prices for Various Dairy Commodities

The CME spot market for many dairy products saw noteworthy swings this week. Strong domestic demand and inventory changes drove cheddar barrels, which soared by 6.5 cents to $2.02 per pound. Likewise, Cheddar blocks dropped 12.5 cents to $1.97 a pound, underscoring limited supply and strong demand.

Prices in the whey market remained constant at 47 cents per pound, reflecting robust local demand for high-protein goods despite poor exports. This denotes stability at the extreme of the current range.

Strong worldwide demand for butterfat keeps butter prices high even though they marginally dropped 0.25 cents to $3.09 per pound.

Class III Futures Soar Amid Robust Cheese Demand While Class IV Contracts Retreat

ContractMilk ClassPriceChange
July 2024Class III$20.67+0.75
August 2024Class III$21.13+0.75
July 2024Class IV$21.00-0.30
August 2024Class IV$21.00-0.30

Strong demand for domestic cheese has driven Class III futures to unprecedented heights, with July ending at $20.67 and August closing at $21.13. Driven by strong cheese markets and solid whey prices, this spike contrasts significantly with the fall in Class IV contracts, which dropped almost 30ȼ but still above $21 for 2024.

The higher Class III futures present promising financial opportunities for dairy farmers, encouraging increased milk output. Despite potential obstacles such as low slaughter volumes, high heifer prices, and the risk of disease outbreaks, which could complicate milk production, the potential for financial expansion remains excellent. This optimistic outlook should inspire confidence in the audience.

It is still being determined if high prices are sustainable. Strong worldwide demand for U.S. dairy and climate disruptions might sustain high prices longer than usual, presenting a problematic but profitable scene for dairy farmers, even if the decline in Class IV futures would indicate market corrections.

Butterfat Bonanza: Global Demand and Scarcities Propel U.S. Butter Prices to New Heights

Butterfat components must be raised more drastically to fulfill our need for cream-based goods. American butter prices have been so high that they have raised markets. At the height of the pandemic shortage in October 2022, German and Dutch butter values reached their maximum levels. At last week’s Global Dairy Trade auction, butter peaked at a two-year high and exceeded $3 per pound. Butter melted somewhat on LaSalle Street, sliding 0.25ȼ to a still-buoyant $3.09.

Likewise, the markets for milk powder are consistent. CME spot nonfat dry milk (NDM) concluded at $1.1925, down a negligible 0.25ȼ from the start of the week. Due to decreased output and improved consumer demand in important regions outside China, prices are rising in Europe, Oceania, and South America. Tightened milk supply and higher cheese pricing might increase demand for NDM to strengthen cheese vats in Mexico and the United States.

Dairy Dilemmas: Navigating Financial Strains, Disease Outbreaks, and Climatological Threats 

The dairy industry has significant challenges. Low slaughter levels and high heifer prices point to slight expansion. The bottleneck of diminishing replacement heifers hinders herd increase. The spread of avian influenza throughout the Midwest and mountain regions has further taxed chicken production and indirectly affected dairy operations because of complex agricultural supply lines.

Key dairy areas, including California and the Midwest, are dangerous from a developing heat wave. As cows experience heat stress, high temperatures will reduce milk production. This climatic difficulty strikes when consumer demand for dairy is still strong, aggravating the supply-demand mismatch and maintaining high prices.

These elements—limited herd expansion, disease outbreaks, and lower milk output due to weather—suggest that high dairy prices will last longer than usual. The sector finds this problematic as it aims to raise production to satisfy the high customer demand.

Steady Crops Amidst Market Calm: Limited USDA Updates Leave Commodity Prices Mostly Unchanged

Commodity6/10/20246/11/20246/12/20246/13/20246/14/2024Weekly Change
Corn (per bushel)$4.485$4.485$4.485$4.485$4.485
Soybean Meal (per ton)$352.90$353.50$355.20$358.60$360.60+$7.70
Wheat (per bushel)$6.060$6.050$6.045$6.040$6.035-$0.025

The USDA’s most recent crop balance sheet report surprised a few people. Unchanged U.S. corn output projections meant that July corn futures were constant at $4.485 a bushel. July soybean meal jumped to $360.60 per ton, up by $7.70, mirroring lower output from spring downtimes at primary crushers.

Black Sea region’s bad weather reduced forecasts of world wheat yield. Still, the American market was mostly unaffected, paying more attention to local projections. The Western Corn Belt is expected to have heavy rain; warm, sunny Midwest weather has been ideal. These seasons have restored soil moisture, therefore guaranteeing strong summer crop development. Feed costs stay low and steady, which helps dairy farmers, given the robust demand for cheese and butterfat.

The Bottom Line

Strong domestic cheese demand drives Class III futures to fresh highs despite intense worldwide rivalry and rising overseas output. Rising temperatures affecting milk output and strategic market maneuvers have constrained cheese supply, driving stratospheric prices on the CME spot market.

Planned increases in cheese production from Australia, New Zealand, and Europe call into doubt the sustainability of present U.S. pricing levels. Rising U.S. cheese prices make landing new export agreements improbable, which might change world trade dynamics in the following months.

The dairy sector is negotiating obstacles from environmental conditions and the development of illnesses like avian influenza to economic constraints like low slaughter volumes and high heifer prices. In this usually changing sector, these elements might help to maintain high prices longer than usual.

High cheese demand and limited supply help Class III futures to continue firm, yet the long-term prediction hinges on addressing production problems and changes in world market behavior. The larger dairy market will watch these changes as dairy farmers aim to optimize production, balancing optimism with prudence.

Key Takeaways:

  • High Class III Futures: Driven by strong domestic cheese demand, Class III futures have reached new highs, averaging $21.28 per cwt. for third-quarter contracts.
  • Limited Impact on Exports: Current U.S. cheese prices are expected to hinder new export business, with a foreseeable decline in exports later this year.
  • Record Cheese Exports: Between November and April, record cheese shipments helped reduce U.S. cheese inventories.
  • Climate Challenges: Sweltering temperatures in California and the Southwest, coupled with an unusually hot June forecast for the Midwest, have curtailed milk production.
  • Persistent Demand for Butterfat: Global demand for butterfat remains high, with U.S. butter prices influencing international markets.
  • Whey and Nonfat Dry Milk Markets: Steady whey prices and a stable milk powder market, with some regional price increases due to lower production and better demand outside China.
  • Class IV Futures Decline: While Class III futures have surged, Class IV futures have retreated slightly, impacting profit margins for dairy producers.
  • Agricultural Market Stability: USDA’s latest crop updates provided no significant changes, leaving commodity prices mostly unchanged, with corn and soybean meal prices stable.

Summary: The global cheese market is experiencing significant changes, with USDA experts in Australia, New Zealand, and Europe anticipating strategic surges in cheese output due to a decrease in fluid milk consumption and declining profit margins for milk powder. This shift indicates that processors in these regions are adapting to the increased value of cheese markets and are ready to redirect more milk into cheese production. Despite the projected global expansion of cheese production, the U.S. dairy sector has demonstrated remarkable resilience, driving record Class III futures and high U.S. cheese prices. Key factors contributing to the current surge in U.S. cheese pricing include record-breaking cheese shipments from November through April, strong domestic demand, and strategic movements and climatic patterns. An unusually hot June is forecasted for the Midwest, and adverse weather conditions, including searing temperatures in California and the Southwest, have curtailed milk production, driving up cheese prices and straining the milk supply. Class III futures present promising financial opportunities for dairy farmers, encouraging increased milk output. However, it is still uncertain if high prices are sustainable. The butter industry faces significant challenges due to global demand and scarcities, leading to high butter prices. High cheese demand and limited supply may help maintain high prices longer than usual.

Cheese Prices Surge to New Highs Amid Milk Market Strain and Regional Disruptions

Find out why cheese prices are climbing. Learn how milk market issues and local disruptions are affecting your favorite dairy products. Get the details here.

Another day of positive growth in the cheese market. Higher CME spot prices have led to a significant increase in block values, reaching the highest level since August 2023. With futures finishing 6.4 cents higher at $2.1390 a pound, it has driven the August all-cheese price to fresh life-of-contract highs. While milk output is a concern in certain cheese-making areas, the overall market is showing promising signs.

CommodityCurrent PriceChangeHighest Price Since
Block Cheese$2.1390 per pound+6.4 centsAugust 2023
Spot Blocks$1.9825 per pound+$0.0450
Barrel Cheese$2.0225 per pound+$0.0125
Butter$3.0900 per pound-$0.0150

Leading Chicago’s dairy market activity today:

  • With four shipments sold, spot blocks increased to $1.9825 per pound, gaining $0.0450.
  • Barrels likewise rose to $2.0225 per pound, earning $0.0125.
  • The lone red on the board was butter, which slid to $3.0900, down $0.0150.

Stability in the dairy market is evident as Class III futures improved, with contracts for third quarters concluding at $21.28 per hundredweight, up $0.45 for the day. Simultaneously, adjacent Class IV contracts remained steady at $21.35, indicating a balanced market.

Though steady from last week, Midwest spot milk prices this week averaged—$1.50, significantly above last year’s price of—$7.75 and the five-year average of—$2.73. Cow comfort still presents difficulties in many areas of the United States, resulting in limited supply.

Summary: The cheese market has seen positive growth, with higher CME spot prices leading to a significant increase in block values, reaching the highest level since August 2023. Futures finished 6.4 cents higher at $2.1390 a pound, driving the August all-cheese price to fresh life-of-contract highs. Despite concerns about milk output in certain cheese-making areas, the overall market is showing promising signs. Chicago’s dairy market activity saw spot blocks increase to $1.9825 per pound and barrels to $2.0225 per pound. Class III futures improved, with contracts for third quarters ending at $21.28 per hundredweight, up $0.45. Midwest spot milk prices averaged $1.50, significantly above last year’s price and the five-year average of $2.73.

USDA 2024-25 Forecast: Steady Milk Production, Rising Dairy Prices, and Beef Trends

Uncover USDA’s 2024-25 forecast: stable milk output, higher dairy prices, and beef trends. How will these affect your business and market plans?

Comprising important elements such as milk production, dairy pricing, and changing patterns, the USDA’s thorough prediction for 2024–25 presents a full picture of the dairy industry. This projection—a great tool for market analysts—has great relevance for farmers, manufacturers, and other stakeholders driving their strategic decisions.

Stable Milk Output Projections Set the Stage for Increased Exports and Rising Prices

Category202320242025
Total Milk Production (billion pounds)226.4227.3229.3
Class III Milk Price ($/cwt)17.9017.70
Class IV Milk Price ($/cwt)20.5020.10
All-Milk Price ($/cwt)21.6021.50

Since last month, the milk production forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been constant, suggesting a harmonic approach to cow inventory levels. This consistency and the expectation of higher cheese shipments have resulted in an upward estimate for commercial exports on a fat basis for 2024 while skim-solids-based exports stay the same.

The forecasts of solid worldwide demand provide a picture of the global dairy industry and drive the increasing export projections for fat and skim-solids bases. Farmers, producers, and other interested parties, including manufacturers, depend on this realization as they make plans for 2025. Driven by planned imports of butter and milk protein-containing products, import forecasts for 2024 are also on the rise; similarly, projections for 2025 show the same increases.

The recent price increases’ positive trend has helped raise the price estimates for butter, cheese, whey, and nonfat dry milk (NDM) for 2024. Milk prices in Class III and Class IV are thus rising. Furthermore, the all-milk price projection was raised to $21.60 per cwt. For those in the market, this upward trend in pricing shows encouraging signals.

Butter, cheese, and whey prices will rise as the strong demand for dairy products continues until 2025. Though the NDM forecast stays, the same, higher product costs have driven up the Class III and IV milk price projections. The predicted 2025 all-milk price these days is $21.50 per cwt.

Beef Forcast 

Looking forward to 2025, increased slaughter for outlying quarters more than offsets decreased predicted slaughter in the first quarter. These cattle will most likely be sold and killed in the second half of the year because they are put on feed in the first half. Furthermore, clothing weights are projected to stay high throughout 2025.

Given the limited cattle and beef supply, average prices for 2025 should be higher than those for 2024. With prices hitting $186 per cwt in the fourth quarter, the fed cattle price projection for 2024 was calculated at $184 per cwt. The average throughout 2023 per cwt was $175.54.

Feed Supply, Price Forecasts 

The WASDE data from the USDA provides possible information on dairy feedstuff availability and pricing:

Comparatively, the 2024-25 U.S. corn projection is the same this month compared to the previous month.

Forecasts for global coarse grain output for 2024–25 show 1.4 million tons down to 1.511 billion. Relative to last month, this month’s foreign coarse grain prognosis shows lower output, somewhat greater trading, and smaller ending stockpiles. Foreign corn output is slightly higher, rising for Ukraine and Zambia, somewhat offset by a decline in Russia.

From the May projection, the expected season-average corn price received by growers remained the same at $4.40 per bushel, down 25 cents from the 2023-24 average of $4.65 per bushel.

This month’s U.S. soybeans for 2024–25 show greater starting and ending stockpiles.

Higher starting stockpiles indicate lower crush for 2023–24, down 10 million bushels on less soybean meal.

The Bottom Line

Based on the USDA’s most recent estimates, milk output is predicted to be constant for 2024–25 despite expected price rises resulting from significant demand for dairy products. Likewise, beef output is steady, yet tighter supply might lead to more expensive goods.

Though pricing trends have dropped compared to past years, feed supply predictions for maize and soybeans reveal an unaltered view. As dairy and cattle farmers control expenses, this might provide both possibilities and problems.

Juggling consistent output, price changes, and feed expenses will be vital for the agricultural sector. Markets for dairy and beef must adapt and be creative to ensure profitability and sustainability.

Key Takeaways: 

  • Milk Production: Milk production forecasts for 2024 and 2025 remain unchanged from last month, with only slight adjustments. The 2024 production is estimated at 227.3 billion pounds, a modest increase from 2023’s total of 226.4 billion pounds.
  • Milk Prices: Price forecasts for butter, cheese, whey, and nonfat dry milk (NDM) are raised for 2024 due to recent price strength. The Class III milk price is now forecast at $17.90 per hundredweight (cwt), while Class IV is projected at $20.50 per cwt. The all-milk price is raised to $21.60 per cwt.
  • 2025 Milk Production: The production estimate for 2025 remains steady at 229.3 billion pounds. Prices for butter, cheese, and whey are expected to rise due to strong demand, while NDM prices remain stable. Class III milk is forecast at $17.70 per cwt and Class IV at $20.10 per cwt. The all-milk price for 2025 is $21.50 per cwt.
  • Beef Outlook: Beef production and average cattle prices are forecast to rise in 2025. Despite lower expected slaughter in the first quarter, increased slaughter in subsequent quarters and higher dressed weights are expected to sustain production levels.
  • Feed Supply: The 2024-25 U.S. corn outlook remains unchanged, with foreign coarse grain production slightly lower. Soybean beginning and ending stocks are projected higher, with the soybean price forecast at $11.20 per bushel. Dairy-quality alfalfa hay prices averaged $315 per ton in April.

Summary: The USDA’s 2024-25 forecast provides a comprehensive view of the dairy industry, including milk production, pricing, and changing patterns. It predicts steady milk output, increasing exports, and rising prices. The global dairy industry’s solid demand forecasts drive export projections for fat and skim-solids bases. Import forecasts for 2024 and 2025 show the same increases, driven by planned imports of butter and milk protein-containing products. The positive trend in price increases has raised milk prices in Class III and Class IV for 2024. Beef forecasts show increased slaughter for outlying quarters, while average prices for 2025 are expected to be higher than those for 2024. Balancing consistent output, price changes, and feed expenses will be crucial for the agricultural sector.

Milk and Cheese Markets See Subtle Gains; Consumer Prices Steady

Discover the latest trends in milk and cheese markets. Prices are steady, but what does this mean for your grocery bill? Find out how it impacts your budget today.

The milk markets , while not making significant strides, are showing a steady upward trend. This stability is a positive sign for our stakeholders, indicating a predictable market. In the cheese markets, we saw a peaceful scenario, with blocks settling at $1.9375 per pound, up $0.0025, and five lots exchanged. Barrels held at $2.0100 per pound with three loads traded. Butter was also steady today at $3.1050, with no lots sold. 

The Consumer Price Index, a crucial marker of market stability, surprisingly remained flat between April and May. This unexpected turn of events is sure to pique the interest of our stakeholders. However, it rose 3.3% from a year ago, which was slightly lower than the 3.4% forecasted by analysts. In May, grocery prices remained steady from April but saw a 1.0% increase year-over-year. The cost of eating out also saw a slight increase in May, with prices rising 0.4% month-over-month and 4.0% on the year. 

Let’s delve into the specifics of Class III and Class IV milk prices. Class III milk finished the day mostly unchanged, with June down a penny at $19.77, July up 7 cents to $20.60, and August at $21.07. Class IV milk was softer, with June at $21.15, July down 20 cents to $21.35, and August at $21.50/cwt. These details will help our stakeholders understand the current market conditions and plan their strategies accordingly.

Key takeaways:

  • Cheese market prices have shown minimal changes, with blocks at $1.9375 per pound and barrels at $2.0100 per pound.
  • Butter prices remain steady at $3.1050 per pound.
  • The Consumer Price Index held flat between April and May, increasing by 3.3% year-over-year.
  • Grocery prices in May were unchanged from April but climbed by 1.0% compared to the previous year.
  • Eating out became marginally more expensive in May, with a 0.4% month-over-month increase and a 4.0% rise year-over-year.
  • Class III milk prices remained mostly unchanged, with slight variations across different months.
  • Class IV milk prices showed a slight downward trend for June and July.

Summary: Milk markets are showing a steady upward trend, indicating a predictable market for stakeholders. Cheese markets are experiencing a peaceful scenario with blocks at $1.9375 per pound, barrels at $2.0100 per pound, and butter at $3.1050. The Consumer Price Index remained flat between April and May, slightly lower than analysts’ forecast of 3.4%. Grocery prices remained steady from April but saw a 1.0% increase year-over-year. The cost of eating out also saw a slight increase in May, rising 0.4% month-over-month and 4.0% on the year. Class III and Class IV milk prices have remained mostly unchanged, with Class III milk down a penny in June, July up 7 cents to $20.60, and August at $21.07. These details will help stakeholders understand the current market conditions and plan their strategies accordingly.

Milk Futures Predict Brighter Prices Ahead Amid Market Volatility and Rising Demand

Learn how milk futures suggest better prices ahead despite market volatility and rising demand. Will tighter supplies and more exports lift dairy markets?

Understanding the market dynamics, especially the recent trends in Class III futures, is crucial. It can equip you with the knowledge to navigate through these uncertain waters. Stay informed and be prepared for fluctuations that could significantly impact your bottom line.

MonthClass III Futures Price ($ per cwt)Class IV Futures Price ($ per cwt)
January21.3523.50
February22.1024.30
March20.8523.00
April19.6022.10
May18.5021.00
June19.2022.40

Milk Futures Signal a Brighter Horizon for Dairy Farmers 

The potential for a brighter horizon for dairy farmers this year is signaled by milk futures. If spot prices hold, milk prices could surpass last year’s levels. This optimistic outlook is driven by several factors, including increased demand and supply constraints, which could further boost prices. 

Firstly, increased demand plays a significant role. Both domestic and international markets show a heightened appetite for dairy products, especially cheese and butterfat. 

Secondly, supply constraints could further boost prices. Cheese inventories haven’t exceeded last year’s levels. If demand continues to rise, the supply may struggle to keep pace, pushing prices upward. 

It’s also worth noting that volatility in recent milk markets could become more pronounced as summer progresses. The indicators point positively toward better milk prices compared to last year.

MonthCheese Exports (Metric Tons)Butterfat Exports (Metric Tons)
January24,0006,500
February22,5006,200
March26,0006,800
April28,5008,000
May27,0007,500

The Stability in Cheese Inventory: A Beacon for Dairy Farmers 

The stability in cheese inventory signals good news for dairy farmers. With international demand rising, especially in quicker-rebounding markets, you can expect further price gains. High cheese exports will likely continue, cushioning against domestic shortages. 

Butterfat exports surged 23% in April, hinting at record butter prices. If domestic consumption follows suit, the dairy sector could have a profitable year. Watch these trends closely as they shape market dynamics. 

The crop outlook remains strong despite planting delays. With 75% of corn rated good/excellent, a bountiful harvest is expected. This could lower feed costs and boost profits. While some input costs are high, stable grain prices and improving milk futures suggest a better income over feed margin. 

As summer progresses, a proactive approach is essential. The market’s volatility demands your attention. Monitor both local and international trends to navigate the ups and downs, maximizing gains and minimizing setbacks.

Record Cheese Exports: A Promising Outlook for Dairy Farmers

International cheese demand has surged, with record-high cheese exports in March and April. This increase has provided strong market support. More domestic cheese is being sold internationally, reducing inventory levels and potentially tightening supplies. 

The impact on future prices could be significant. Continued strong demand and tighter supplies may boost cheese prices. As global market dynamics favor U.S. cheese, this could mean better margins and a more stable income for dairy farmers.

The Butter Market: Rising Exports Foreshadow Potential Records

The butter market is showing robust signs. In particular, April witnessed a substantial increase in butterfat exports, soaring by 23%. This upward trend in exports is not just a fleeting moment; it sets a solid foundation for potentially record-high butter prices this year. As both domestic and international demand for butter continues to rise, the market outlook becomes increasingly favorable. This spike in demand, coupled with the surge in butterfat shipments, could very well propel butter prices to new heights, instilling confidence in dairy farmers about the market’s potential.

April’s Income Over Feed Margin: A Glimpse of Dairy Farming Resilience

April’s income over feed price was $9.60 per cwt, marking the second month without Dairy Margin Coverage payments. This positive signal for dairy farmers shows profitable conditions without government support. 

Looking ahead, the stability of grain prices and the positive trend in milk futures should inspire optimism. Despite planting delays, grain prices remain steady, and 75% of the corn crop is rated good to excellent. A strong crop could mean lower grain prices and feed costs, potentially boosting income over feed margins and improving profitability. This promising outlook could reduce reliance on Dairy Margin Coverage payments, offering a brighter future for dairy farmers. 

With steady or falling grain prices and positive milk futures, dairy farmers might see continued profitability, reducing reliance on Dairy Margin Coverage payments. This outlook benefits farmers navigating market volatility.

Grain Market Conditions: A Silver Lining for Dairy Farmers

Let’s shift focus to the grain market. Planting delays have yet to affect grain prices significantly. The early corn condition looks very positive, with 75% rated as good to excellent. That sets the stage for a robust harvest. 

If this trend holds, expect a large corn crop, likely lowering corn prices. This means reduced feed costs for dairy farmers, leading to better income over feed margins and improved profitability despite volatile milk market conditions.

The Bottom Line

The dairy market is experiencing significant volatility, especially in Class III futures. However, current trends suggest milk prices could improve. Cheese inventory is stable, hinting at tighter supplies if demand rises. Meanwhile, cheese and butterfat exports have surged, boosting market confidence. 

In April, income over feed margins was resilient, with stable grain prices suggesting favorable conditions for dairy farmers. Despite some planting delays, strong crop conditions for corn indicate ample supply and potentially lower feed costs. These factors contribute to a positive milk price outlook if spot prices hold and demand grows.

Key Takeaways:

  • Milk futures suggest better prices compared to last year if current spot prices hold.
  • Demand dynamics: Improved international cheese demand boosts market optimism.
  • Cheese inventory levels remain stable, indicating potential supply tightening.
  • April saw a 23% increase in butterfat exports, hinting at possible record-high butter prices.
  • Grain market: Initial crop conditions are favorable, potentially leading to lower grain prices.
  • No further Dairy Margin Coverage program payments expected due to improved income over feed conditions.

Summary: The dairy market is experiencing significant volatility, especially in Class III futures, and this turbulence is expected to persist and escalate as summer approaches. Milk futures indicate a brighter horizon for dairy farmers this year, with spot prices holding and milk prices potentially surpassing last year’s levels. Increased demand for dairy products, particularly cheese and butterfat, is driving optimism. Supply constraints could further boost prices, as cheese inventories haven’t exceeded last year’s levels. Stability in cheese inventory signals good news for dairy farmers, as international demand is rising, especially in quicker-rebounding markets. High cheese exports will likely continue, cushioning against domestic shortages. The butter market is showing robust signs, with record-high cheese exports in March and April providing strong market support. More domestic cheese is being sold internationally, reducing inventory levels and potentially tightening supplies.

Milk Futures Signal Potential for Stronger Prices Amid Volatility and Rising Cheese Demand

Discover how milk futures signal stronger prices amid rising cheese demand and market volatility. Will this trend continue to benefit dairy producers and consumers?

The dairy markets have seen increased volatility, with Class III futures showing significant ups and downs. I mentioned this earlier, and it happened sooner than expected. Expect more volatility as summer progresses. Traders are reacting quickly to cash movements or perceived price changes. Milk futures suggest milk prices could be better than last year if spot prices remain steady. Prices will improve if demand rises and supplies tighten. Cheese inventory hasn’t exceeded last year’s levels, hinting at potential supply tightening if demand grows. Manufacturers say cheese demand is up but not enough to cut inventory.

MonthTotal Cheese Exports (Metric Tons)Change from Previous YearButterfat Exports (Metric Tons)Change from Previous Year
March 202350,022+20.5%2,350+15%
April 202346,271+27%2,881+23%

International cheese demand has seen a remarkable improvement. In March, cheese exports surged to 50,022 metric tons, a 20.5% increase from the previous year and the highest recorded. April followed suit with a 27% rise over April 2023, reaching 46,271 metric tons, the second highest on record. 

MonthClass III Closing Price (per cwt)Price Change (%)Market Sentiment
January$19.20+3.2%Optimistic
February$18.75-2.3%Neutral
March$20.10+7.2%Strong
April$21.00+4.5%Bullish
May$21.25+1.2%Stable
June$21.85+2.8%Optimistic

The outlook for cheese exports is bright, providing strong market support. Butterfat exports also jumped in April, reaching 2,881 metric tons—up 23% from last year and the first year-over-year increase since November 2022. This could lead to record-high butter prices, thanks to higher demand and the highest butter prices yet for this time of year. Increasing domestic demand and potential for rising international demand could push prices even higher. 

  • April income over feed price was $9.60 per cwt.
  • Second month with no Dairy Margin Coverage program payments.
  • Current grain prices and milk futures suggest no future payments under the program.
  • Planting delays haven’t impacted grain prices.
  • Initial crop condition for corn is 75% good/excellent.
  • One of the highest initial ratings for a crop, possibly leading to a large supply and lower prices.
  • This could improve income over feed significantly.

Summary: Dairy markets are experiencing increased volatility, with Class III futures showing significant fluctuations. Traders react quickly to cash movements or price changes, and milk prices could improve if spot prices remain steady. Cheese inventory has not exceeded last year’s levels, suggesting potential supply tightening if demand grows. International cheese demand has seen a remarkable improvement, with cheese exports rising 20.5% in March and 27% in April. The outlook for cheese exports is bright, providing strong market support. Butterfat exports also jumped in April, reaching 2,881 metric tons, up 23% from last year and the first year-over-year increase since November 2022. This could lead to record-high butter prices due to higher demand. Income over feed price in April was $9.60 per cwt, with no Dairy Margin Coverage program payments.

Mexican Demand Fuels Record U.S. Dairy Exports Amid Economic and Political Changes

Find out how increased Mexican demand is boosting U.S. dairy exports amid economic and political changes. How will rising prices affect future trade?

The landscape of U.S. dairy exports is shifting, mainly driven by growing Demand from Mexico. As the dairy sector adapts to economic and political changes, Mexican importers are crucial in shaping current trends. With April shipments to Mexico up 13%, reaching 55,478 metric tons of milk solids equivalent (MSE), the Demand for U.S. dairy is thriving. 

Mexico’s Demand is boosting export volumes and revitalizing various dairy categories, from cheese to butter and low-protein whey. Though recent political events have added complexity, favorable economic conditions, and competitive pricing drive this surge. This article explores these factors, focusing on crucial product performances and future market dynamics.

Product CategoryApril 2023 Volume (Metric Tons)Percentage Change (YoY)
Milk Solids Equivalent (MSE)55,478+13%
Cheese17,249+53%
Other Cheese (Cheddar, Gouda, etc.)N/A+73%
Shredded CheeseN/A+43%
Butter169+100%+
Low-Protein WheyN/A+79%
Nonfat Dry MilkN/A-2%

Data Source: U.S. Dairy Export Council (USDEC), April 2023 Reports

Rebound in U.S. Dairy Shipments: April Sees 13% Spike Following March Decline, Driven by Mexican Demand. 

The recent export data reveals a strong recovery in U.S. dairy shipments, showing a 13% increase in April to 55,478 metric tons of milk solids equivalent (MSE). This marks a significant rebound from March’s 24% decline, mainly due to reduced milk powder exports. The April surge highlights the resilience of the U.S. dairy export market and the robust Demand from Mexico. This Demand has been crucial in driving recovery and growth, setting the industry up for continued success despite economic and political fluctuations.

Record Cheese Exports and Broad Dairy Growth to Mexico

USDEC reported that the surge in dairy exports to Mexico was widespread across various product categories. Cheese exports were robust, setting a new record with volumes reaching 17,249 metric tons, a 53% increase. Notable rises were also seen in “other cheese” categories, such as cheddar and gouda, which soared by 73%, while shredded cheeses increased by 43%. 

Other dairy products also showed robust growth; butter exports more than doubled to 169 metric tons, and low-protein whey shipments, including dry whey and permeate, surged by 79%. Although nonfat dry milk volumes were down for the eighth month, the 2% decline was the smallest since the downtrend began late last year.

Unprecedented Surge in Butter and Whey Exports Amidst Shifting Trends in Nonfat Dry Milk

Other dairy products also showed robust growth; butter exports more than doubled to 169 metric tons, and low-protein whey shipments, including dry whey and permeate, surged by 79%. Although nonfat dry milk volumes were down for the eighth month, the 2% decline was the smallest since the downtrend began late last year.

Possible Stabilization Signals for Nonfat Dry Milk (NFDM) Amid Slight Decline 

The ongoing decline in nonfat dry milk (NFDM) volumes saw a slight reprieve, with only a 2% decrease in April, the smallest drop since late last year. This could indicate a stabilization phase for NFDM, which is crucial for various industrial applications. The modest reduction reflects market dynamics, where Demand for cost-effective dairy solutions persists despite rising cheese prices. This trend may signal steadier times ahead for NFDM in the Mexican market.

A Confluence of Economic Strength and Recovery Driving Mexican Dairy Demand 

Mexico’s post-pandemic solid recovery has significantly boosted consumer purchasing power, sustaining high levels of dairy consumption. The competitive pricing of U.S. dairy products, driven by efficient production techniques and favorable exchange rates, further fuels this Demand. A relatively strong peso enhances the attractiveness of American exports, solidifying this growing trade relationship.

Political Dynamics Post-Election: Peso Depreciation Injects Volatility into U.S.-Mexico Dairy Trade 

Political influences have dramatically impacted U.S. dairy exports to Mexico. The recent election caused the peso to depreciate by 4% against the dollar. This currency fluctuation challenges Mexican importers, who face higher costs, and U.S. exporters, who navigate an uncertain market environment. 

Despite this dip, the peso remains stronger than pre-pandemic levels, thanks to Mexico’s resilient local economy. However, economic growth is slowing, and the initial post-COVID recovery is losing momentum. These factors could affect dairy exports, making it essential for exporters to monitor political developments closely. 

As U.S. dairy prices rise, driven by higher production costs and global market trends, the balance of political and economic forces will shape future Demand. Mexican buyers might prefer cheaper options like nonfat dry milk instead of premium cheese. This highlights the need for exporters to adapt to the evolving landscape to maintain trade flows amid uncertainties.

Anticipating Shifts: Rising U.S. Dairy Prices May Catalyze Strategic Adjustments in Mexican Import Patterns 

Rising U.S. dairy prices may prompt Mexican buyers to recalibrate their import strategies. As cheese prices climb, they might shift towards more economical dairy alternatives, like nonfat dry milk, to maintain local cheese production. The post-election resilience of the peso could help buffer price sensitivity, preserving strong trade relations. As Mexico’s economy recovers, Demand for high-value dairy products, including organic cheese and butter, is expected to remain robust, though with strategic adjustments for price variations. This dynamic landscape underscores a flexible dairy trade adapting to economic shifts.

The Bottom Line

The recent data showcases a notable recovery in U.S. dairy exports, primarily fueled by Mexican Demand across various products. Significant increases in cheese exports and strong growth in butter and whey shipments underscore the broad appeal of U.S. dairy in Mexico. While nonfat dry milk exports have declined, they are starting to stabilize. This Demand is supported by a strong economy and competitive U.S. prices, though recent political events, like election-related peso volatility, present new obstacles. As U.S. dairy prices rise, strategic adjustments may be needed to sustain this crucial export market. Ultimately, Mexican Demand continues to be critical, underpinning U.S. dairy exports amid economic and political shifts.

Key Takeaways:

  • April shipments to Mexico soared to 55,478 metric tons of milk solids equivalent (MSE), marking a 13% year-over-year increase.
  • Record cheese exports reached 17,249 metric tons, a 53% rise, driven by a notable 73% increase in “other cheese” categories like cheddar and gouda.
  • Butter exports more than doubled to 169 metric tons, while low-protein whey shipments surged by 79%.
  • Nonfat dry milk (NFDM) volumes saw a slight decline of 2%, the smallest dip in an eight-month downtrend.
  • A strong local economy and competitive pricing have supported robust Mexican demand, although recent political events, including election-related volatility, present potential challenges.
  • Future demand trends may shift due to rising U.S. dairy prices, possibly affecting the balance between cheese and NFDM imports.

Summary: The U.S. dairy export landscape is undergoing significant changes due to growing demand from Mexico, which is boosting export volumes and revitalizing dairy categories like cheese, butter, and low-protein whey. The recent export data shows a 13% increase in U.S. dairy shipments to Mexico, with cheese exports setting a new record. Other dairy products also showed robust growth, with butter exports more than doubling to 169 metric tons and low-protein whey shipments surged by 79%. Despite a slight decline in nonfat dry milk (NFDM) volumes, the ongoing decline may signal steadyer times ahead for NFDM in the Mexican market. Mexico’s post-pandemic solid recovery has significantly boosted consumer purchasing power, sustaining high levels of dairy consumption. The competitive pricing of U.S. dairy products, driven by efficient production techniques and favorable exchange rates, further fuels this demand.

Senators Demand USDA Restore Fair Milk Pricing to Combat Farmer Losses

Senators urge USDA to restore fair milk pricing to combat farmer losses. Can reverting to the old formula save dairy farmers from economic hardship? Learn more.

If you’re a dairy farmer, you’ve likely experienced the harsh financial realities of recent changes in the milk pricing formula. Since 2018, many in the dairy industry have been grappling to stay afloat. Revenue has plummeted, casting a shadow of uncertainty over the future. The issue originates from the alteration of the ‘higher of ‘ Class I pricing formula for fluid milk, resulting in over $1.1 billion in lost revenue for Class I skim milk over the last five years. 

“Ensuring fair compensation and stabilizing milk prices are critical for the survival of our dairy farmers and their communities,” said Senator Kirsten Gillibrand.

Senator Gillibrand, Chair of the Senate Agriculture Subcommittee on Livestock, Dairy, Poultry, Local Food Systems, and Food Safety and Security, has recognized the urgent situation. Leading a strong bipartisan effort with 13 other senators, she is urging the USDA to revert to the previous formula. This united push aims to repair the economic damage and stabilize the dairy market.

The Crucial Role of FMMO’s “Higher” Pricing Formula in Dairy Market Stability 

The Federal Milk Marketing Order (FMMO) system, created in 1937, aims to stabilize milk prices and ensure fair market conditions for dairy producers. This system sets minimum milk prices, categorized into four classes based on its use. Class I milk—for fluid consumption—traditionally commands the highest price due to its critical role in the consumer market. 

Previously, the “higher of” Class I pricing formula linked the price of Class I milk to the higher value between Class III (cheese) and Class IV (butter and powdered milk) prices. This approach aimed to ensure dairy farmers received fair compensation, reflecting market trends and minimizing economic volatility. 

However, the 2018 Farm Bill changed this formula. It introduced an averaging method, which calculates Class I prices based on the average of Class III and Class IV prices plus a fixed differential. This change aimed to simplify pricing and provide more predictability. Unfortunately, it led to significant revenue losses for dairy farmers, amounting to over $1.1 billion in lost Class I skim milk revenue over the past five years, causing widespread financial strain in the dairy farming community.

The Economic Ramifications of the Current Class I Pricing Formula 

The ongoing financial difficulties faced by dairy farmers have reached a critical point, prompting bipartisan action from the Senate. To emphasize the gravity of the issue, it’s essential to examine the direct impact of the altered Class I pricing formula on dairy farmers’ revenues over the past five years. 

YearRevenue Loss Due to Pricing Formula Change (in millions)
2018$250
2019$220
2020$200
2021$230
2022$200

Data Source: Senators’ Letter to USDA, outlining economic impacts on dairy farmers from 2018-2022 due to the Class I pricing formula change.

The current Class I pricing formula has had a significant and far-reaching economic impact on dairy farmers. Since the 2018 Farm Bill changed the formula, dairy producers have lost $1.1 billion in Class I skim milk revenue. This substantial financial loss has weakened many dairy operations, pushing some toward insolvency. The revised formula, which moves away from the ‘higher of ‘ pricing method, has introduced volatility that disrupts milk price stability. This instability hampers farmers’ budget planning and aggravates agricultural uncertainties. 

This pricing volatility affects the entire dairy supply chain, impacting feed suppliers, equipment manufacturers, and the rural economy. Farmers, who need stable pricing to manage costs and plans, face increased financial strain. As their revenue decreases, their ability to invest in farm improvements, employee wages, and community contributions diminishes. The instability caused by the current formula threatens the long-term viability of the American dairy industry, requiring urgent reform.

A Unified Appeal for Economic Justice in Dairy Farming

The senators’ letter to Secretary Tom Vilsack highlights the urgent need to revert to the “higher of” Class I pricing formula. They argue that the change made in the 2018 Farm Bill has caused a financial crisis, costing dairy farmers over $1.1 billion in lost revenue. The previous “higher” formula provided fair and predictable compensation, ensuring stability in the dairy sector. 

This bipartisan call to action, backed by influential senators like Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), Roger Marshall (R-KS), and Bob Casey (D-PA), underscores the shared concern for the future of dairy farming and the broader economic impacts. The senators are urging the USDA to reinstate the ‘higher mover in upcoming policy updates, aligning with the Federal Milk Marketing Order system’s goal of stable milk pricing and adequate supply. 

The Far-Reaching Economic Impact of Dairy Pricing Instability 

Beyond affecting dairy farmers directly, the flawed Class I pricing formula has widespread economic impacts. Rural areas, heavily reliant on agriculture, suffer as decreased farmer incomes mean less local spending and reduced investments in nearby businesses such as feed suppliers and equipment dealers. 

This financial strain disrupts the food supply chain, affecting dairy processors and retailers who face unpredictable pricing, leading to higher consumer costs and potential shortages of dairy products. This volatility can erode consumer trust in the food supply. 

Reinstating the ‘higher of’ mover is crucial for stabilizing the dairy market. This formula supports a predictable economic environment by offering fair compensation reflecting market conditions. It aligns with the Federal Milk Marketing Order’s goal to ensure a steady supply of fluid milk, contributing to a resilient agricultural sector supporting local economies despite market changes.

Senators’ Urgent Call to Action: A Pivotal Moment for Fair Milk Pricing

The senators’ urgent plea for immediate action from the USDA underscores the critical necessity to revert to the ‘higher class I pricing formula, which has been instrumental in ensuring fair compensation for dairy producers. This call for change is of utmost importance as the USDA embarks on its modernization efforts of the Federal Milk Marketing Order (FMMO) system. The upcoming decisions made by the USDA are not just regulatory updates; they are pivotal moves that must align with the fundamental goals of promoting stable milk pricing and guaranteeing an adequate supply of fluid milk. The financial well-being of dairy farmers and the broader economic stability hinge on these critical reforms.

Key Takeaways:

  • Bipartisan Effort: Led by Senator Kirsten Gillibrand and supported by 13 other senators, the call to restore the “higher of” Class I pricing formula aims to address revenue losses and stabilize the dairy market.
  • Financial Impact: Since the 2018 Farm Bill modification of the pricing formula, dairy farmers have incurred over $1.1 billion in lost Class I skim milk revenue.
  • Economic Ramifications: The unstable pricing formula affects not only dairy farmers but the wider agricultural supply chain, including feed suppliers and equipment manufacturers.
  • Call to Action: The senators’ letter to Secretary Tom Vilsack emphasizes the urgent need for reform to safeguard the long-term viability of the American dairy industry.
  • Alignment with FMMO Goals: Reinstating the “higher of” pricing formula aligns with the Federal Milk Marketing Order’s objective of ensuring a steady milk supply and stable market conditions.

Summary: The dairy industry has been grappling with financial difficulties since 2018, with over $1.1 billion in lost revenue for Class I skim milk over the past five years. The change in the ‘higher of’ Class I pricing formula for fluid milk, which linked the price of Class I milk to the higher value between Class III and Class IV prices, has led to significant revenue losses for dairy farmers. The revised formula has disrupted milk price stability, hampering farmers’ budget planning and aggravated agricultural uncertainties. This volatility affects the entire dairy supply chain, impacting feed suppliers, equipment manufacturers, and the rural economy. Farmers, who require stable pricing to manage costs and plans, face increased financial strain as their revenue decreases. The instability caused by the current formula threatens the long-term viability of the American dairy industry, requiring urgent reform. Senators’ letter to Secretary Tom Vilsack emphasizes the urgent need to revert to the “higher of” Class I pricing formula, arguing that the change in the 2018 Farm Bill has caused a financial crisis, costing dairy farmers over $1.1 billion in lost revenue. Reinstating the ‘higher of’ formula is crucial for stabilizing the dairy market and aligning with the Federal Milk Marketing Order’s goal to ensure a steady supply of fluid milk, contributing to a resilient agricultural sector supporting local economies despite market changes.

U.S. Cheese Production in April: Italian Cheese Surges, American Cheese Declines

Dive into April’s U.S. cheese production trends. Curious about the rise of Italian cheese and the decline of American cheese? Uncover the compelling data and regional details.

April presented a mixed landscape for U.S. cheese production, with both promising gains and notable declines. According to the USDA, total cheese output, excluding cottage cheese, reached 1.19 billion pounds, up 1.8% year-over-year but down 3% from March. Italian-type cheese production rose by 6.2% from last year to 504 million pounds, though it fell 2.8% from March. On the other hand, American cheese production declined by 4.7% year-over-year and 4.3% from March, totaling 468 million pounds. 

“The mixed trends in U.S. cheese production signal both resilience and challenges within the industry,” the USDA report suggests.

CategoryProduction (Million Pounds)Year-Over-Year ChangeMonth-Over-Month Change
Total Cheese (excluding cottage)1,190+1.8%-3.0%
Italian-Type Cheese504+6.2%-2.8%
American Cheese468-4.7%-4.3%
Butter208+5.3%-1.0%
Nonfat Dry Milk173-12.7%
Skim Milk Powder36.3-20.8%
Dry Whey+2.1%
Lactose-1.5%
Whey Protein Concentrate-6.1%
Hard Ice Cream64.7 million gallons+7.3%

Mixed Signals in April U.S. Cheese Production Reflecting Varied Trends 

According to the USDA data, total cheese output, excluding cottage cheese, reached 1.19 billion pounds in April. This marks a 1.8% increase compared to the same period last year but shows a 3% decrease from March. The production dynamics underscore a mixed trend in U.S. cheese production for the month, reflecting both year-over-year growth and month-over-month decline.

Italian Cheeses Shine Year-Over-Year Despite Monthly Dip

Italian-type cheese production showcased a remarkable upturn, reflecting a year-over-year surge of 6.2%, culminating at 504 million pounds. Despite this annual growth, the month-over-month comparison revealed a marginal dip of 2.8% from March. This duality underscores both the strong demand for Italian cheeses over the year and the seasonal or market-driven fluctuations that influence monthly production volumes.

American Cheese Production Faces Significant Challenges in April

Amid the intricate landscape of U.S. cheese production, American cheese has faced a particularly challenging month. Specifically, April witnessed a decline in American cheese output, both when compared year-over-year and month-over-month. Production fell by 4.7% from April last year, resulting in a total output of 468 million pounds. The month-over-month comparison is similarly bleak, with a 4.3% decrease from March, accentuating the downward trend in this particular cheese category. This dual decline highlights ongoing shifts within the industry, signaling potential adjustments in consumer demand and production focus.

Butter Production Sees Minor Monthly Dip Amidst Impressive Annual Growth 

Butter production trends exhibited a complex pattern, reflecting the overarching variability in the dairy sector. While there was a minor decline of just over 1% in butter output compared to March, the sector demonstrated resilience with a notable 5.3% increase compared to the same period last year. This duality in trends is indicative of broader market dynamics and seasonal production adjustments. In total, April’s butter production reached 208 million pounds, underscoring both the short-term and long-term shifts in the dairy landscape.

Sharp Declines in Dry Dairy Products Highlight April’s Downturn

Dry dairy products presented a downward trend in April, with significant declines observed in both nonfat dry milk and skim milk powder production. Nonfat dry milk saw a steep reduction, recording a 12.7% drop to reach a total of 173 million pounds. Skim milk powder production experienced an even sharper decline of 20.8%, culminating in a total output of 36.3 million pounds compared to the same period last year.

Contrasting Fortunes Within Dry Dairy Production Reflect April’s Complex Landscape 

Nevertheless, not all dry dairy products shared the same fate. Dry whey production, for instance, edged up by 2.1%, offering a glimmer of optimism amidst broader declines in the sector. Specifically, dry whey output reached notable levels, counteracting the overarching downtrend. Conversely, lactose production did not fare as well, registering a 1.5% decline. Even more striking was the significant 6.1% decrease in whey protein concentrate production. Collectively, these figures underscore the mixed results within the dry dairy product landscape, highlighting areas of both growth and notable declines.

Unprecedented Fluctuations in Frozen Dairy Production: Hard Ice Cream Surges While Other Categories Slide

Frozen dairy product output varied significantly in April, illustrating a mixture of trends within the industry. The production of hard ice cream notably climbed by an impressive 7.3%, reaching 64.7 million gallons. This increase stands in stark contrast to the declines observed in other frozen dairy categories. The production of low-fat ice cream, sherbet, and frozen yogurt all experienced downturns, highlighting the sector’s fluctuations and the diverse consumer preferences shaping production dynamics.

Regional Production Trends: Wisconsin’s Cheddar Supremacy and California’s Mozzarella Dominance

In examining regional production trends, the data reveals that Wisconsin continues to dominate the Cheddar cheese market, producing an impressive 60.38 million pounds in April. California follows, contributing 21.29 million pounds to the nation’s Cheddar cheese supply. 

Turning attention to Mozzarella, California leads with a substantial output of 134.14 million pounds, while Wisconsin is not far behind, generating 93.13 million pounds. This makes California the unrivaled leader in Mozzarella production, though Wisconsin’s figures are commendable. 

When looking at overall cheese production, Wisconsin emerges as the top-producing state with an aggregate output of 281.48 million pounds. California comes in second, followed closely by Idaho and New Mexico. These states collectively form the backbone of the U.S. cheese manufacturing industry, each playing a crucial role in meeting domestic and international demand.

The Bottom Line

April’s cheese production data from the USDA paints a complex picture of the dairy industry, characterized by both advancements and setbacks. Italian-type cheeses exhibited impressive year-over-year growth, driven by a notable 6.2% increase, even as they faced a slight month-over-month decrease. In stark contrast, American cheese suffered significant declines both annually and monthly, highlighting underlying production challenges. 

The broader dairy landscape reflected similar dualities. Butter production experienced a modest monthly dip but demonstrated robust annual growth. The production of dry dairy products such as nonfat dry milk and skim milk powder saw sharp drops, whereas dry whey managed a slight increase. 

Frozen dairy products also showed variability, with hard ice cream production surging, while other categories like low-fat ice cream and frozen yogurt declined. Regionally, Wisconsin and California continued to dominate specific cheese categories, underscoring their pivotal roles in national dairy production

Overall, these intricate trends underscore the multifaceted nature of the U.S. dairy industry, highlighting areas of growth and the need for strategic adjustments in response to declining segments.

Key Takeaways:

  • Total cheese production in April saw a slight year-over-year increase of 1.8%, despite a 3% drop from March.
  • Italian-type cheese production rose by 6.2% year-over-year but decreased by 2.8% from the previous month.
  • American cheese production experienced declines both year-over-year and month-over-month, down by 4.7% and 4.3% respectively.
  • Butter production was up by 5.3% compared to April of last year, although it saw a minor decline from March.
  • Dry dairy products faced significant declines: nonfat dry milk dropped by 12.7% and skim milk powder by 20.8% year-over-year.
  • Dry whey production slightly increased by 2.1%, while lactose and whey protein concentrate production declined by 1.5% and 6.1% respectively.
  • Hard ice cream production surged by 7.3%, but low-fat ice cream, sherbet, and frozen yogurt production all decreased.
  • Wisconsin led in Cheddar cheese production, contributing 60.38 million pounds, whereas California was the top producer of Mozzarella with 134.14 million pounds.

Summary: In April, U.S. cheese production experienced a mixed landscape, with both positive and negative trends. The USDA reported a total cheese output of 1.19 billion pounds, up 1.8% year-over-year but down 3% from March. Italian-type cheese production rose by 6.2% to 504 million pounds, while American cheese production declined by 4.7% year-over-year and 4.3% from March, totaling 468 million pounds. This dual decline highlights ongoing shifts within the industry, signaling potential adjustments in consumer demand and production focus. Butter production saw a minor monthly dip, while dry dairy products showed a downward trend, with significant declines observed in nonfat dry milk and skim milk powder production. Dry whey production edged up by 2.1%, but lactose production and whey protein concentrate production also saw a decline. Frozen dairy product output varied significantly, with hard ice cream production climbing by 7.3% to reach 64.7 million gallons. Wisconsin continues to dominate the Cheddar cheese market, producing an impressive 60.38 million pounds in April.

U.S. Dairy Exports Surge in April: Record Cheese Shipments and Whey Boost

Explore the remarkable rise in U.S. dairy exports this April, bolstered by unprecedented cheese shipments and significant whey growth. Will this upward trajectory persist amidst global economic changes?

Chart 4 Final

The latest figures from the United States Dairy Export Council (USDEC) reveal a significant achievement-a 3% increase in U.S. dairy exports in April. This rise not only balances out earlier declines but also reduces the year-to-date export deficit to 1.6%. This positive trend is a result of various factors such as increased demand from key markets and competitive pricing strategies, which we are determined to maintain.

ProductApril 2023 Exports (Metric Tons)Year-Over-Year Change (%)Key Markets
Cheese46,27027%Mexico, Southeast Asia, South Korea, Middle East/North Africa, Caribbean, Japan
High-Protein WheyNot Specified26%China, Brazil
Low-Protein WheyNot Specified8%Mexico
Butter and Anhydrous Milk FatNot Specified23% / 100%+Global Markets
Nonfat Dry Milk/Skim Milk PowderNot Specified-2%South America, Caribbean

U.S. cheese exports surged by 27% in April, reaching 46,270 metric tons—the second-highest on record for a month. Mexico set an all-time high with 17,249 metric tons, a 53% increase. Other regions also saw significant gains: Southeast Asia (102%), South Korea (69%), Middle East/North Africa (40%), the Caribbean (24%), and Japan (11%). These figures underscore the solid global demand and competitive pricing for U.S. cheese.

High-protein whey exports grew significantly, nearly tripling to China and rising 66% to Brazil, showcasing increased demand. Low-protein whey also saw gains, up 8% for the year, with Mexico leading at a 79% increase. These numbers highlight the widespread appeal of U.S. whey products.

April saw the first year-over-year increase in butterfat exports since November 2022, highlighting renewed global interest in U.S. dairy products. Butter exports grew by 23%, and anhydrous milk fat exports more than doubled, showcasing the rising demand for these high-value ingredients. 

Even with higher domestic butter prices, U.S. products have remained competitive globally, especially compared to the European Union and New Zealand. This price competitiveness has been vital in boosting butterfat exports, reinforcing the U.S.’s strong and stable position in the global dairy market.

Nonfat dry and skim milk powder exports declined by 2%, driven by reduced shipments to China and Vietnam. Despite this, South America and the Caribbean showed strong growth, helping to offset losses in Asia. This highlights the need for U.S. dairy exporters to diversify their markets to navigate global trade complexities. For more insights, check out global dairy trade predictions. As we look to May, U.S. dairy exports face many opportunities and challenges. The gradual global economic recovery could boost demand for dairy products, and severe droughts in key Mexican milk-producing areas may increase import demand, benefiting U.S. exports to this top market. However, rising U.S. cheese prices reduce the competitive edge over exporters like New Zealand and the EU, potentially slowing cheese export growth. Geopolitical uncertainties also threaten global trade by affecting supply chains, market access, and currency rates. 

U.S. dairy exporters have a promising future ahead. By staying adaptable, leveraging strengths in high-protein whey, and exploring new markets, we cannot only continue to diversify but also expand our reach, opening up new avenues for growth and success.

Key Takeaways:

  • Overall Export Growth: U.S. dairy exports increased by 3% year-over-year, effectively reducing the year-to-date export deficit to 1.6%.
  • Cheese Exports: A remarkable 27% surge in cheese exports, driven by strong demand from Mexico, Southeast Asia, and South Korea, reaching the second-highest volume on record for a single month.
  • High-Protein Whey: High-protein whey product exports rose by 26%, with China’s imports nearly tripling and Brazil’s increasing by 66%.
  • Butterfat Revival: Butter and anhydrous milk fat exports saw their first year-over-year increase since November 2022, growing by 23% and more than doubling, respectively.
  • Competitive Pricing: Despite rising U.S. butter prices, they remained competitive compared to European Union and New Zealand prices, bolstering global demand.
  • Challenges Ahead: While the global economic recovery and severe droughts in key Mexican milk-producing states offer opportunities, rising U.S. cheese prices and geopolitical uncertainties pose potential risks.


Summary: The US Dairy Export Council (USDEC) reported a 3% increase in dairy exports in April, reducing the year-to-date export deficit to 1.6%. This growth is attributed to increased demand from key markets and competitive pricing strategies. Key markets included Mexico, Southeast Asia, South Korea, Middle East/North Africa, Caribbean, and Japan. U.S. cheese exports reached 46,270 metric tons, the second-highest on record for a month. High-protein whey exports grew significantly, with Mexico leading at a 79% increase. Butterfat exports saw the first year-over-year increase since November 2022, highlighting renewed global interest in U.S. dairy products. Despite higher domestic butter prices, U.S. products remain competitive globally, especially compared to the European Union and New Zealand. Nonfat dry and skim milk powder exports declined by 2%, while South America and the Caribbean showed strong growth. However, challenges such as global economic recovery, severe droughts in key Mexican milk-producing areas, rising cheese prices, and geopolitical uncertainties threaten global trade.

Bullish Trends Dominate LaSalle Street: Record Highs in Class III & IV Futures Propel Dairy Markets

Uncover the surge of bullish trends on LaSalle Street pushing Class III & IV futures to record highs. Will the dairy markets keep climbing? Delve into the latest insights today.

The bulls are back on LaSalle Street, setting fresh records in dairy futures. Class III and some Class IV futures hit life-of-contract highs this week, making waves in the dairy markets. While some Class III contracts dipped slightly by week’s end, Class IV futures rose about 30ȼ. Third-quarter Class III stands solidly above $20 per cwt. Fourth-quarter contracts hover in the high $19s. Class IV futures are robust in the $21s and $22s. 

Prices climbed across the CME spot market, led by whey – the unsung hero of the Class III complex. 

The recent surge in whey powder, with a significant 13.25% increase, along with solid gains in Cheddar blocks and barrels, is a clear indicator of the market’s strength. This bullish trend in Class III and IV futures not only highlights the current market strength but also promises potential growth and stability.

ProductAvg PriceQty Traded4 Wk Trend
Whey$0.4445713.25% increase
Cheese Blocks$1.866013Up
Cheese Barrels$1.955013Up
Butter$3.10405Stable
Non-Fat Dry Milk (NDM)$1.189531Up

Class III Futures Soar: A Promising Summer and Year-End Forecast

ContractPrice as of Last WeekPrice This WeekChange
July Class III$19.50$20.25+3.85%
August Class III$19.75$20.45+3.54%
September Class III$20.00$21.10+5.50%
October Class III$19.20$20.10+4.69%
November Class III$19.00$19.75+3.95%
December Class III$18.50$19.40+4.86%

The steady trend of class III futures, which are on a roll this summer and heading into the end of the year, offers a clear outlook for dairy producers. With contracts from July through December hitting life-of-contract highs and third-quarter Class III prices solidly above $20 per cwt., there is robust demand in the market. The prices for the fourth quarter, settling in the $19s, further reinforce the potential profitability for dairy producers. 

Class IV Futures Climb Higher: Butter and NDM Lead the Charge

MonthAvg PriceQty Traded4 wk Trend
July 2024$21.5010
August 2024$21.7512
September 2024$22.0014
October 2024$21.9511
November 2024$22.1013
December 2024$22.2515

Class IV futures are on the rise, now solidly in the $21s and $22s. This reflects the strong and resilient market fundamentals of the dairy sector. The hike in Class IV prices highlights robust demand for butter and nonfat dry milk (NDM), both showing remarkable performances recently. With higher butter output meeting strong demand and climbing NDM prices, these components are crucial to Class IV’s upward trend. This surge boosts market sentiment and provides dairy producers with better financial incentives to increase production despite current challenges, instilling a sense of stability and confidence in the market. 

A Week of Robust Gains: Whey Leads the Charge in the CME Spot Market

The CME spot market buzzed this week, with significant gains led by whey. Spot whey powder jumped 5.5ȼ, a solid 13.25% increase, hitting 47ȼ per pound for the first time since February. This rise shows the strong demand for high-protein whey products as manufacturers focused more on concentration. 

Spot Cheddar also saw gains, with blocks up 3.5ȼ to $1.845 per pound and barrels rising 1.5ȼ to $1.955 per pound. This climb, even with a drop in Cheddar production, reflects strong domestic and international cheese demand, especially with U.S. cheese exports to Mexico hitting record highs. 

Nonfat dry milk (NDM) increased by 2.75ȼ to $1.195 per pound, supported by a robust Global Dairy Trade auction. Despite the price rise, NDM stocks saw their most significant March-to-April jump, suggesting slower exports. 

Butter prices edged slightly, by a fraction of a cent, to settle at $3.0925 per pound. Despite a 5.3% year-over-year production increase, the continued strength in butter prices indicates strong demand holding up the market prices.

April’s Milk Output: High Components Drive Record-Breaking Butter Production

MonthButter Production (million pounds)Year-Over-Year Change (%)
January191.0+4.0%
February181.3+3.5%
March205.5+5.1%
April208.0+5.3%

The bulls are back in charge on LaSalle Street. July through December Class III and a smattering of Class IV futures notched life-of-contract highs this week. While most Class III contracts ultimately settled a little lower than they did last Friday, Class

April’s milk output brought some notable developments. Despite lower overall volume than last year, higher milk components led to an uptick in cheese and butter production. Manufacturers churned out nearly 208 million pounds of butter, a 5.3% increase over April 2023. This marks the highest butter output for April, only behind April 2020, when pandemic shutdowns diverted cream to butter production. This spike in butter output indicates solid market demand despite the large volumes.

Record Cheese Production in April: Mozzarella and Italian-Style Cheeses Shine 

Cheese TypeApril 2023 Production (Million lbs)April 2024 Production (Million lbs)Year-over-Year Change (%)
Mozzarella379402+6.2%
Italian-Style496527+6.2%
Cheddar349319-8.6%
Total Cheese1,1701,191+1.8%

April saw U.S. cheese production reach new heights, with Mozzarella and Italian-style cheeses leading the charge. Mozzarella production hit record levels, and Italian-style cheese output was up 6.2% compared to last April. This high demand ensures quick consumption or export, avoiding the stockpiles that sometimes affect Cheddar. 

Cheddar, however, experienced an 8.6% drop in production from last year, showing a 5.9% decline from January to April compared to 2023. Yet, strong cheese exports, especially to Mexico and key Asian markets, are balancing things out. Exports are up 23% year-to-date, which helped push cheese prices above $2 briefly. 

Continued export growth might be challenging, with cheese prices around $1.90, but the trends are promising for U.S. cheese producers.

Whey Powder Renaissance: Demand for High-Protein Products Fuels Price Surge 

Whey powder, often underrated in the dairy market, is returning thanks to a strong demand for high-protein products. Health-conscious consumers are driving this trend, leading manufacturers to concentrate more on whey and produce less powder. Although April’s whey powder output matched last year’s, stocks have declined. This reduced supply and steady demand have fueled the current price surge. The recent 5.5ȼ gain, a 13.25% increase, underscores the market’s strength.

A Tale of Supply and Demand: NDM Production Slumps While Stockpiles Surge Due to Sluggish Exports

Nonfat Dry Milk (NDM) and Skim Milk Powder (SMP) production fell significantly in April to 209.6 million pounds, down 14.2% year-over-year, marking the lowest April output since 2013. Despite this, NDM stocks surged, hitting a record March-to-April increase. Slower exports are the leading cause. In April, the U.S. exported 144 million pounds of NDM and SMP, down 2.5% from last year and the lowest for April since 2019. This highlights the delicate balance between production, stock levels, and international trade.

Promising Prospects: Mexico’s Shift to NDM Could Boost Exports and Stabilize Markets

There’s hope for increased NDM export volumes, particularly to Mexico. Higher cheese prices might push Mexico to import more affordable NDM instead of cheese. Mexican manufacturers can use NDM to boost their cheese production efficiently. This shift could reduce current NDM stockpiles and stabilize market prices.

Proceed with Caution: Navigating Volatility and Barriers in Milk Production

The recent data highlight extreme volatility in the dairy complex. While high prices are tempting, caution is crucial. There are significant barriers to milk production expansion. High interest rates make investments riskier, and a scarcity of heifers limits rapid growth. Even issues like the bird flu impact the supply chain and market stability.

Economic Incentives and Strategic Tools Empower Dairy Producers to Boost Output and strategically navigate the market. This potential for strategic growth and control over the market dynamics can be a powerful motivator for dairy producers and traders. The current market conditions for dairy producers are a strong incentive to boost milk production. Class III futures are up $3.50 from last year, and with corn prices down $1.55, feed costs are more affordable, making it easier to increase output. 

Despite market ups and downs, there’s a great chance to protect your margins. You can lock in current high prices using futures and options, ensuring steady profits. The Dairy Revenue Protection (DRP) insurance program offers a safety net against price drops or production issues. These tools help you navigate the market smartly and aim for maximum profitability.

Feed Markets Show Resilience Amidst Fluctuations: Corn Gains Modestly, Soybean Meal Dips

The feed markets had their ups and downs this week but ended up close to where they started. July corn settled at $4.4875, a slight increase of 2.5ȼ. Meanwhile, July soybean meal dropped $4.10 to $360.60 per ton.

Farmers are almost done planting their crops, with just a few acres left. A drier forecast will help them wrap up. Although heavy spring rains posed initial challenges, they also improved moisture reserves for the upcoming summer months

Less favorable global farming conditions might boost U.S. export prospects, stabilizing prices and preventing steep drops. With average weather, a large U.S. harvest is expected, potentially lowering feed costs even more.

The Bottom Line

The current dairy market offers both opportunities and challenges for producers. Class III and IV futures show solid gains and higher prices thanks to robust demand and reduced milk output. Whey and cheese markets are performing exceptionally, and export volumes could improve. However, volatility remains a concern. High interest rates, scarce resources, and global health threats add to the uncertainty. Farmers can secure attractive margins using strategic tools like futures, options, and insurance programs. Favorable planting conditions and resilient feed markets provide added support. Staying informed and agile will be vital to capitalizing on these dynamics while managing risks.

Key Takeaways:

  • Strong bullish trends observed in Class III and IV futures, with significant life-of-contract highs.
  • Third-quarter Class III prices solidly above $20 per cwt, and fourth-quarter contracts in the $19 range.
  • Class IV futures robustly in the $21s and $22s, driven by high demand for butter and NDM.
  • Whey powder prices surged with a 13.25% gain, hitting 47ȼ per pound for the first time since February.
  • Cheddar blocks and barrels showed solid gains at the CME spot market, indicating strong market fundamentals.
  • April’s milk output featured high components, leading to record-breaking butter production.
  • U.S. cheese production hit record levels in April, driven by escalating Mozzarella and Italian-style cheese output.
  • Strong demand for high-protein whey products spurred a price surge, backed by decreased dryer availability.
  • NDM production saw a slump, affected by sluggish exports, but stockpiles surged with the largest March-to-April increase ever.
  • Mexico’s potential shift to importing more NDM could stabilize export volumes and market dynamics.
  • Dairy producers incentivized to boost milk production despite barriers, with improved futures and feed margins.
  • Feed markets exhibited resilience, with minor fluctuations in corn and soybean meal prices.

Summary: The dairy market has seen a strong bullish trend, with Class III and some Class IV futures hitting life-of-contract highs this week. Class IV futures are robust in the $21s and $22s, reflecting the strong and resilient market fundamentals of the dairy sector. The recent surge in whey powder and solid gains in Cheddar blocks and barrels is a clear indicator of the market’s strength, promising potential growth and stability. Class III futures are on a roll this summer and heading into the end of the year, offering a clear outlook for dairy producers. Contracts from July through December hit life-of-contract highs, and third-quarter Class III prices solidly above $20 per cwt., reinforcing potential profitability for dairy producers. Class IV futures are on the rise, now solidly in the $21s and $22s, reflecting the strong and resilient market fundamentals of the dairy sector. The surge in Class IV prices highlights robust demand for butter and nonfat dry milk (NDM), both showing remarkable performances recently. In April, U.S. cheese production reached record levels, with Mozzarella and Italian-style cheeses leading the charge.

CME Dairy Market Stays Steady to Higher: Minimal Sales Highlight Friday Trading

Cash dairy prices held steady to higher levels amid light trading activity Friday on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Here’s a quick glance at the movements: 

“Dry whey saw a slight uptick, gaining $0.0175 to settle at $0.47. Two sales were logged at $0.46 and $0.47 respectively.”

  • Dry Whey: Increased by $0.0175 to $0.47 with two sales recorded at $0.46 and $0.47.
  • Cheese Market: Remained quiet. Forty-pound cheese blocks held steady at $1.8450, and no sales were recorded.
  • Cheese Barrels: Unchanged at $1.9550, with no sales recorded.
  • Butter: Regained most of Thursday’s losses, climbing $0.0425 to $3.0925. One sale was recorded at $3.10.
  • Nonfat Dry Milk: Unchanged at $1.1950, with no sales recorded.

This mix of steady and upward movements reflects the market’s cautious approach on the day. How will this trend evolve? Stay tuned for more updates.

Class III Milk Prices Plummet as Dairy Markets Face Limit Down Trend

CommodityPrice
Butter$3.09 1/2/lb
Cheddar Blocks$1.86/lb
Cheddar Barrels$1.94 1/2/lb
Whey$0.44/lb
Grade A Non-Fat Dry Milk$1.20/lb

Today’s dairy market saw significant movements, especially in Class III milk prices. May Class III milk was released at $18.55, while Class IV finished at $20.50. This marked a day where Class III milk experienced a limit move lower. Traders were early sellers ahead of the dairy products trade at 11 am CST. 

CommodityPrice MovementCurrent Price
Butter-6 ¾ cents$3.09 1/2/lb
Cheddar Blocks-3 cents$1.86/lb
Cheddar Barrels-1 ½ cents$1.94 1/2/lb
WheyUnchanged$0.44/lb
Grade A Non Fat Dry Milk+1 cent$1.20/lb
Corn (July)$4.39 ¼/bu
Corn (Harvest)$4.59/bu
Soybeans-1 ¾ cents$11.77/bu
Soybean Meal+2.00$359.50/ton

Class III milk prices tumbled further: June fell 35 cents to $19.50/cwt, July dropped 72 cents to $20.15/cwt, and August declined 73 cents to $20.36/cwt. The balance of 2024 Class III milk followed suit, dropping between 28 to 44 cents. 

Class IV milk also faced losses. June dropped 3 cents to $21.31, July went down 33 cents to $21.65, and August decreased by 48 cents to $21.77/cwt. 

“Grain prices continued to drop, with corn sliding due to good rain in the Midwest to $4.39 ¼ in July and $4.59/bu at harvest. Soybeans slipped only a penny and ¾ to $11.77/bu, while soybean meal rose by $2.00 to $359.50/ton.”

May 2024 Milk Prices: A State-by-State Earnings Comparison for US Dairy Farmers

Learn how May 2024 milk prices differed across the US. Which states gave dairy farmers the best earnings? Check out our state-by-state comparison.

Have you ever wondered why milk prices vary from state to state? It’s not just a simple question—it’s essential for understanding the economic landscape that dairy farmers navigate. This article, set against the backdrop of the US dairy farming sector, delves into the May 2024 milk prices across the United States. 

Comparing milk prices isn’t just about numbers; it reveals the pressures and opportunities shaping the dairy industry. Examining these differences gives you a clearer picture of how factors like local demand, production costs, and state policies impact farmers. 

Understanding the disparity in milk prices helps farmers and sheds light on trends affecting the entire country. 

This article explains why these price differences matter and what they reveal about the U.S. dairy farming sector. You’ll find comparisons and insights illuminating the economic realities facing dairy farmers today. 

Sourcing and Accuracy: Behind the May 2024 Dairy Price Analysis 

Our analysis of May 2024 milk prices draws on multiple reliable sources. We gathered data from Illinois Farm Business Farm Management (FBFM) Association records, USDA reports, and state agricultural departments. This data was then cross-referenced with regional market reports and verified with dairy producers nationwide to ensure accuracy. 

We surveyed dairy producers nationwide and cross-referenced with regional market reports. To ensure data accuracy, we clarified any discrepancies directly with producers. 

Inflation adjustments were made using the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for dairy products, ensuring that current market conditions were reflected. 

We focused on states like California, Wisconsin, and New York for their significant milk production. States with varied regional pricing trends were also included for a comprehensive national view. 

Rest assured, our robust data sources, diligent data collection, inflation adjustments, and strategic state selection ensure the reliability of our May 2024 milk price analysis. You can trust the insights and recommendations we provide to navigate the dairy market.

Milk Price Trends in May 2024: A Beacon of Economic Optimism for Dairy Farmers 

RegionMay 2024 Milk Price ($ per cwt)May 2023 Milk Price ($ per cwt)YoY Change (%)
Northeast21.5019.758.86%
Midwest21.0019.209.38%
South20.7518.909.79%
West20.9519.109.69%

In May 2024, average milk prices in the U.S. increased, reflecting significant market shifts. The national average hit $20.30 per hundredweight (cwt), up from $18.75 in May 2023 and $19.50 in April 2024. This rise is attributed to reduced cow culling and better export performance. 

Increased domestic consumption has also boosted milk prices, signaling a potential opportunity for dairy farmers. This demand surge began in late 2023 and continued into 2024, driven by household and food service needs. The milk market remains resilient despite a drop in cheddar cheese and mozzarella prices, offering a glimmer of hope in these challenging times. 

Regional variances show some states with sharper price rises due to localized supply issues and varying production costs. Overall, the trend looks promising for dairy farmers. 

These changes suggest cautious economic optimism for the U.S. dairy market, which faces challenges like regional production differences and fluctuating domestic demand. Looking ahead, factors such as weather conditions, global trade policies, and consumer preferences will continue to influence milk prices, making it crucial for dairy farmers to stay informed and adaptable.

Regional Breakdown of May 2024 Milk Prices: Climate, Costs, and Market Impact 

RegionAverage Milk Price (per cwt)Key Influencing Factors
Northeast$21.50Cold climate, High production costs
Midwest$20.20Favorable climate, Low production costs
West$19.80Drought conditions, Export demand
Southeast$20.75High feed costs, Moderate climate
Southwest$20.00Tight milk supplies, Strong domestic use

When looking at May 2024 milk prices across the U.S., we see apparent regional differences: 

Northeast: Milk prices here are higher. The cold climate raises heating costs and affects feed quality. Plus, proximity to big cities like New York drives demand and prices. 

Midwest: Prices are stable thanks to robust dairy infrastructure and ample feed resources. While cheese prices, particularly cheddar, dropped by 8.5%, diversified dairy production keeps incomes steady. 

South: Lower milk prices are seen here due to the hot climate, which increases cooling costs and stresses dairy cows. Higher feed costs and lower demand also play a role, though better export performance offers some hope. 

West: California’s dairy farmers face moderate prices influenced by high feed and water costs from ongoing drought conditions. However, rising butter stocks help stabilize prices. 

These regional prices are shaped by climate, feed costs, and market demand, showing how important it is for dairy farmers to adapt to changing conditions.

Unpacking May 2024 Milk Prices by State: Key Patterns and Outliers 

Grasping the milk prices by state for May 2024 is essential to understanding the broader trends and economic impacts on dairy farmers. Let’s examine the data from different states and spot key patterns and outliers.

StateMay 2024 Price per cwt ($)April 2024 Price per cwt ($)TrendAnalysis
California21.3020.85▲ 2.2%Strong export markets and stable production.
Wisconsin22.1021.50▲ 2.8%Increased output per cow and regional demand stability.
New York20.7520.20▲ 2.7%Higher domestic use and tight supplies.
Texas19.8019.50▲ 1.5%Recovering from regional production declines.
Idaho21.0020.60▲ 1.9%Stable production and export performance.
Pennsylvania20.6020.05▲ 2.7%Increase in local demand and tighter supplies.

Milk prices in May 2024 vary by region. California, a key dairy producer, charges $3.75 per gallon, while Florida charges the highest, $3.90 per gallon. This difference stems from production costs, climate, and market demand.

Understanding the Economic Impact of Milk Prices on Dairy Farmers 

Understanding the economic impact of milk prices on dairy farmers is crucial. Variations in milk prices can affect profitability, sustainability, and the long-term viability of dairy farms across states. 

Higher milk prices often lead to improved incomes and more significant investment in farm infrastructure. This can mean better herd health management and higher productivity. Conversely, lower prices may reduce profitability, making it difficult for farmers to cover costs and potentially leading to smaller herds or delayed updates. 

Profitability impacts sustainability, too. Higher revenue can help farmers adopt sustainable practices like advanced feed systems or better waste management, benefiting both efficiency and the environment. Lower prices might force cost-cutting, compromising sustainability efforts and posing long-term risks. 

Varying milk prices also affect the long-term viability of dairy farms. Consistently higher prices encourage farmers to pass their operations to future generations, preserving farming traditions. Persistent low prices, however, could force exits from the industry, reducing the number of operational dairy farms. 

In conclusion, while higher milk prices generally support dairy farmers’ profitability, sustainability, and viability, lower prices create significant challenges. Balancing these fluctuations is vital for the overall health of the dairy sector. To navigate these price variations, dairy farmers can consider strategies such as diversifying their product offerings, improving operational efficiency, and exploring new markets.

Dairy Farmer Journeys: A Glimpse Into State-Specific Innovations 

Every dairy farmer’s journey is unique, and in May 2024, milk prices have impacted them differently. Here’s a look at a few of their stories: 

Case Study 1: Illinois – The Adaptive Farmer 

For over two decades, John Miller, a dairy farmer in Illinois, saw a revenue boost in May 2024 with improved milk prices. “This year, prices help us reinvest in better feed and expand our herd,” he says. Enrolled in the Illinois Farm Business Farm Management (FBFM) Association, John uses essential data to make informed decisions, seeing a brighter, more sustainable future

Case Study 2: California – The Sustainable Visionary 

Maria González, running a mid-sized organic dairy farm in California, is a champion of sustainable farming. The rise in butter stocks and strong export performance in May 2024 boosted her farm’s profitability. “Higher prices allow us to maintain organic certifications and invest in eco-friendly tech,” Maria shares. Still, she is cautious due to regional production disparities and slower domestic demand. 

Case Study 3: Wisconsin – The Technological Innovator 

Wisconsin’s Ryan Thompson embraces technology at his family’s dairy farm. Improved milk prices in May 2024 enabled advanced herd management tools, including the Livestock Indemnity Program (LIP) decision tool by the USDA. “These tools help with loss documentation, saving time and reducing stress,” says Ryan. Milk prices offer operational stability and growth despite a slight dip in cheese prices. 

These stories highlight the diverse experiences of dairy farmers across the United States. May 2024, milk prices have provided relief and optimism, enabling farmers to adapt, innovate, and invest in their operations.

Understanding Milk Price Dynamics: Policies, Subsidies, and Market Forces at Play 

Understanding milk price dynamics involves evaluating policies, subsidies, and market forces. These measures provide stability, helping farmers withstand market fluctuations. In May 2024, several factors stood out. 

The USDA introduced a new online Livestock Indemnity Program (LIP) decision tool and farm loan resources. This initiative aids farmers with loss documentation and financial aid, potentially stabilizing milk prices by reducing financial strain and preventing abrupt market exits. 

Market forces were also crucial. Early May saw a significant reduction in cow culling, with slaughter volumes dipping below 50,000 head for the first time in nearly eight years. This shift points to altered herd management strategies, likely influenced by improving milk prices and more robust export performance. Stable cheese inventories and rising butter stocks also supported a favorable pricing landscape. 

External market conditions, such as changes in domestic use, also impacted supply and demand dynamics. Increased domestic use due to higher disappearance rates in late 2023 and into 2024 shaped the pricing environment. 

The interplay of these policy tools and market adaptations highlights the complexity behind dairy pricing. While higher milk prices brought economic optimism, the ongoing balance of production and demand continued to define the financial landscape for dairy farmers in May 2024.

Embracing the Future: Insights from May 2024’s Dairy Price Data

Looking ahead, May 2024 data offers insights into future milk price trends. With a significant drop in cow culling, herd management is shifting. This trend could lead to more stable herd sizes, impacting supply and prices positively. 

Strong export performance and better domestic use create dual opportunities for farmers. Exports provide a lucrative market while growing domestic consumption signals further potential. 

Yet, challenges remain. Regional production disparities and slower domestic demand in some areas create economic imbalances. States like Illinois may innovate, but others might need help with these issues. 

Price drops in essential dairy products like cheddar and mozzarella hint at market volatility. Farmers may need to adjust production strategies to stay competitive. 

On a positive note, tools like the USDA’s online Livestock Indemnity Program (LIP) decision tool offer valuable risk management and planning resources. 

In summary, May 2024 promises better milk prices and strong exports. However, balancing these opportunities with ongoing challenges is critical to profitability and sustainability in milk production.

The Bottom Line

May 2024’s dairy price analysis shows a mix of optimism and challenges for dairy farmers. While improved prices and robust exports are positive, regional disparities and varying market forces bring different hurdles and opportunities. State-by-state variations in climate, operational costs, and market conditions significantly affect milk prices. 

Staying informed about policy changes, market trends, and regional insights is crucial. Embracing innovative practices, adjusting herd management, and leveraging new technologies can enhance sustainability and profitability. By being adaptable and informed, the dairy industry can better navigate economic fluctuations and seize emerging opportunities.

Key Takeaways:

  • National Price Increase: The national average milk price rose to $20.30 per hundredweight (cwt), a significant boost for dairy farmers.
  • Regional Variations: Prices experienced notable differences across states due to localized supply issues and production costs.
  • Economic Drivers: Factors such as reduced cow culling, better export performance, and increased domestic consumption contributed to the price surge.
  • Climate Impact: Weather conditions played a crucial role, with colder climates in the Northeast leading to higher prices, and hotter Southern climates contributing to lower prices.
  • Technological and Sustainable Advances: Dairy farmers in states like Wisconsin and California are leading the way with tech innovations and sustainable practices, respectively.

Summary: Milk prices in the US have risen significantly in May 2024, reaching $20.30 per hundredweight (cwt), reflecting the challenges and opportunities in the dairy industry. This rise is attributed to reduced cow culling, improved export performance, and increased domestic consumption. Regional variations show some states with sharper price rises due to localized supply issues and varying production costs. However, the trend is promising for dairy farmers, suggesting cautious economic optimism. Factors such as weather conditions, global trade policies, and consumer preferences will continue to influence milk prices, making it crucial for farmers to stay informed and adaptable. Regional breakdowns show Northeast experiences higher prices due to cold climate, Midwest prices remain stable due to robust infrastructure, South experiences lower prices due to hot climate, higher feed costs, lower demand, and better export performance, and West farmers face moderate prices due to drought conditions.

Why Cheese Prices Have Stabilized: Key Influencing Factors 

Find out why cheese prices are leveling off. See the main reasons behind this trend and what it means for the market. Want more details? Keep reading.

Two major factors have been influencing the recent stabilization of cheese prices after a significant rally. CME spot cheese prices surged from mid-March and peaked in mid-May but have since returned to sustainable levels. According to the esteemed analyst, Betty Berning, with her deep understanding of the market dynamics, this correction will likely hold through the summer, with a seasonal increase expected in the fall. 

CategoryMarch 2024May 2024Change
CME Block Cheese Prices$1.3925/lb$1.98/lb+60¢/lb
CME Barrel Cheese Prices$1.3125/lb$2.125/lb+80¢/lb
U.S. Cheese Exports121.3 million lbsRecord High
Year-to-Date Cheese Production3.53 billion lbs-1% compared to 2023

“The recent price run-up can be attributed to strong export demand,” Berning explained. “In early 2024, U.S. cheese prices were significantly lower than those in Oceania and Europe, prompting international buyers to purchase substantial quantities of U.S. cheese.” 

In March, U.S. cheese exports hit an unprecedented record of 121.3 million pounds, with fresh and grated cheeses, particularly mozzarella, seeing strong demand. After hitting a low of $1.3925 per pound in mid-March, CME block cheese prices rose to $1.98 per pound by May 17, while barrel prices increased to $2.125 per pound. 

Cheese production also declined due to tighter milk supplies, with 3.53 billion pounds produced year to date, down 1% from the same period in 2023. This decline has helped prevent inventory build-ups. 

  • Export demand: As prices rose, export demand diminished. Berning noted that U.S. prices are now similar to those in Oceania and the EU, excluding freight costs. With shipping costs factored in, U.S. products become less competitive, reducing exports.
  • Inventory management: Reduced production has prevented significant inventory increases. Limited milk supplies due to fewer U.S. milk cows and heifer replacements add to the complex supply situation, potentially supporting prices in the short term.

Key Takeaways:

  • Cheese prices witnessed a significant increase from mid-March to mid-May 2024, driven by robust export demand.
  • U.S. cheese exports reached a record high of 121.3 million pounds in March, especially for fresh and grated cheese like mozzarella.
  • Production decreased by 1% year-to-date, compared to the same period in 2023, due to tighter milk supplies.
  • Cheese prices have cooled since mid-May, with barrel prices dropping 18.5 cents and blocks falling 17 cents by May 31.
  • Future price trends may depend on factors like milk supply, export competitiveness, and potential new cheese production capacity.

Summary: Cheese prices have stabilized after a significant rally, with CME spot cheese prices returning to sustainable levels. Analyst Betty Berning predicts this correction will continue through the summer, with a seasonal increase expected in the fall. The recent price increase is attributed to strong export demand, with U.S. cheese prices being significantly lower than those in Oceania and Europe. In March, U.S. cheese exports reached an unprecedented record of 121.3 million pounds, with fresh and grated cheeses, particularly mozzarella, seeing strong demand. CME block cheese prices rose to $1.98 per pound by May 17, while barrel prices increased to $2.125 per pound. Cheese production also declined due to tighter milk supplies, with 3.53 billion pounds produced year to date, down 1% from 2023. Export demand diminished as prices rose, and limited milk supplies due to fewer U.S. milk cows and heifer replacements contributed to the complex supply situation, potentially supporting short-term prices.

Declining Dutch Milk Supply Contrast with Growing European Production; Prices Slightly Down

Explore the reasons behind the decline in Dutch milk supplies as European production rises. What does this mean for milk prices and the future of dairy farmers? Continue reading to uncover the details.

The divergence in milk supply trends between the Netherlands and Europe is a significant development. In April, Dutch dairy farmers produced 1.4% less milk than last year, while Europe witnessed a 0.6% rise in March and a 1.2% increase in the first quarter of 2024. 

The contrasting milk supply trends in Poland and Ireland, with a 4% growth and a 6% decline respectively in March, underscore the regional variations that significantly impact the dairy industry.

Dutch farmers are grappling with challenges such as bluetongue and reduced derogation, resulting in a 57 million kg (1.2%) drop in the first four months of 2024. However, the growth in Belgium, Germany, and France is helping to offset these declines, demonstrating the resilience of the dairy industry in the face of adversity. These mixed trends paint a complex but hopeful picture of the dairy industry landscape across Europe.

Cloudy Skies Over Dutch Dairy: April 2024 Milk Deliveries Slump

PeriodMilk Supply (million kg)Change Compared to Previous Year
January 20241,320-1.5%
February 20241,100-1.0%
March 20241,400-0.9%
April 20241,350-1.4%

The latest data paints a sobering picture of the Dutch milk supply. In April 2024, dairy farmers in the Netherlands faced a 1.4 percent decrease in milk deliveries compared to last year. This decline is part of a broader trend, with the first four months of 2024 seeing a total reduction of 57 million kilograms of milk, or a 1.2 percent drop, compared to the same period in 2023. Such statistics underscore significant challenges facing the Dutch dairy sector.

Factors Influencing Dutch Milk Decline: Disease and Regulation Tightening

It’s crucial to understand the factors that have led to the decline in Dutch milk supply. The main contributors are the aftermath of bluetongue disease, which affects cattle, and the reduction of special permissions allowing farmers to exceed EU nitrogen limits. These tighter restrictions on nitrogen usage mean less intensive dairy farming practices. By understanding these factors, stakeholders can be better informed about the challenges Dutch dairy farmers are facing.

Europe’s Milk River Flows Stronger: March 2024 Sees Notable Increase in Deliveries 

CountryMilk Supply Growth in March 2024
Poland+4%
Belgium+0.6%
Germany+0.6%
France+0.6%
Ireland-6%

While Dutch dairy farmers are experiencing a decline, Europe as a whole is showing a different trend. In March 2024, milk deliveries across Europe increased by 0.6 percent. The first quarter of 2024 saw European dairy farmers delivering 1.2 percent more milk than in 2023. Regions like Belgium, Germany, and France showed modest increases, indicating a stable milk collection across the EU despite challenges in places like Ireland. These contrasting trends are significant and should be noted by all stakeholders in the dairy industry.

Spotlight on Individual Countries: Poland’s Surge and Ireland’s Woes

CountryTrendPercentage Change
PolandIncrease+4%
IrelandDecrease-6%
BelgiumIncrease+0.6%
GermanySlight Increase+0.3%
FranceIncrease+0.6%
NetherlandsDecrease-1.2%

Looking closer at individual countries, you’ll see some clear trends. Poland is the most vigorous climber in March, showing a solid 4% increase in milk supply. This boost is thanks to favorable weather and better dairy farming practices. On the flip side, Ireland saw a significant drop, with a 6% decrease in milk supply due to extreme wetness impacting pasture conditions.

April Showers Bring Price Lowers: Tracking European Milk Price

CountryApril 2024 Price (€ per 100 kg)March 2024 Price (€ per 100 kg)% Change
Netherlands44.1044.30-0.45%
Belgium43.8543.95-0.23%
Germany44.2044.35-0.34%
France43.7543.85-0.23%
Poland43.6043.70-0.23%
Ireland42.8043.30-1.15%

European milk prices dipped slightly in April. The average was 43.97 euros per 100 kg, down by 0.49 euros from March. This small drop mainly stems from seasonal factors and specific challenges, like the wet weather in Ireland, which impacted bonuses.

Weather Woes and Economic Ripples: Unpacking the April Dip in European Milk Prices

Several factors contributed to the slight drop in European milk prices in April. A key factor was the removal of bonuses by some Irish factories due to extreme wetness in Ireland, which disrupted farming conditions. Additionally, stabilizing milk collections across Europe and a 6% decrease in energy costs in Q1 2024 also played roles. These combined influences created a ripple effect, slightly nudging average milk prices downward.

The Bottom Line

The milk supply in 2024 shows a clear contrast. Dutch dairy farmers saw a 1.4% drop in April deliveries due to bluetongue and new regulations. In contrast, European dairy producers enjoyed a 1.2% increase in the first quarter. However, April’s European milk price fell slightly to 43.97 euros per 100 kg, influenced by the removal of seasonal bonuses in Ireland.

Discover why Dutch milk supply is declining while European production grows. How will this impact milk prices and dairy farmers? Read more to find out.

  • The Netherlands saw a 1.4% decline in milk deliveries in April 2024 compared to April 2023.
  • From January to April 2024, Dutch milk supply decreased by 57 million kg (-1.2%) compared to the same period in 2023.
  • The decline in the Netherlands has been linked to the aftermath of bluetongue disease and stricter regulations reducing derogation allowances.
  • Conversely, European countries overall experienced a 0.6% increase in milk supply in March 2024.
  • Poland recorded the highest growth at 4% in March 2024, while Ireland faced the steepest decline at 6%.
  • Average European milk prices decreased slightly in April 2024 to 43.97 euros per 100 kg of milk.
  • The price drop was partially due to the removal of bonuses in Irish factories, attributed to extreme wet weather conditions.

Summary: Milk supply trends in the Netherlands and Europe have shown significant differences. Dutch dairy farmers experienced a 1.4% decrease in milk deliveries in April 2024 compared to last year and a 1.2% drop in 2023. This decline is part of a broader trend, with the first four months of 2024 seeing a total reduction of 57 million kg of milk. Factors influencing this decline include the aftermath of bluetongue disease and the reduction of special permissions allowing farmers to exceed EU nitrogen limits. In March 2024, Europe’s milk river flowed stronger, with deliveries increasing by 0.6%. Belgium, Germany, and France showed modest increases, while Poland saw a 4% increase due to favorable weather and better dairy farming practices. European milk prices slightly dropped in April.

Rising Milk Prices and Lower Feed Costs Boost Profitability: May Dairy Margin Watch

Uncover how surging milk prices and decreased feed costs are enhancing dairy profitability. Interested in the freshest trends in milk production and inventory? Dive in to learn more now.

The dairy market witnessed a significant upturn in May, attributed to the rise in milk prices and the decrease in feed costs. This has led to a boost in profitability for dairy producers. Despite milk production still trailing behind last year, the gap is gradually closing, indicating a path to recovery. The USDA’s latest reports, being a reliable source, provide crucial insights that can potentially shape the dairy market. 

  • Dairy margins improved in late May.
  • Milk production dropped 0.4% from last year, the smallest decline in 2023.
  • Weaker feed markets lowered costs.

These factors are setting the stage for improved profitability. Farmers, demonstrating their adaptability, are strategically extending coverage in deferred marketing periods to maximize these gains. Grasping these changes is of utmost importance in navigating the evolving dairy margin landscape.

Riding the Wave: Dairy Margins Climb on the Back of Market Dynamics 

Dairy margins have experienced notable improvements, especially towards the end of May. Apart from the spot period in Q2, ongoing rallies in milk prices coupled with declines in feed market costs have significantly bolstered profitability for dairy producers. This positive shift in margins can be traced back to several market dynamics that have unfolded over the past month. 

Steadying the Ship: Signs of Stability in Milk Production Trends

MonthMilk Production (billion pounds)Year-over-Year Change (%)Dairy Herd Size (million head)
February 202317.925-0.89.36
March 202318.945-0.79.35
April 202319.135-0.49.34
March 2023 (Revised)18.945-0.79.36
April 202419.135-0.49.34

Milk production trends show a continued year-over-year decline, but the gap is narrowing, hinting at stability. The USDA’s April report recorded 19.135 billion pounds of milk, a slight 0.4% drop from last year. This is the smallest decline in 2024, indicating that production levels may stabilize. 

The USDA also revised March data, showing a 0.7% decrease compared to the reported 1.0%. This revision suggests that the production landscape might be improving. While still below last year’s levels, these updates point to a possible upward trend.

Adapting to Market Pressures: Implications of the Changing U.S. Dairy Herd

The dynamics of the U.S. dairy herd tell of broader milk production trends and market conditions. The USDA reported a reduction from 9.348 million dairy cows in March to 9.34 million in April, marking an 8,000-head decline. Year-over-year, the herd is down by 74,000 cows. 

These figures underscore a contraction in the dairy herd, a crucial aspect for comprehending market dynamics. A revision of March’s data revealed the herd was more significant than initially reported, indicating dairy producers are adapting to market pressures for sustainability and profitability.

Contrasting Fortunes: Dramatic Spike in Butter Stocks versus Modest Cheese Inventory Growth

ProductApril 2023 (lbs)March 2024 (lbs)April 2024 (lbs)Change from March to April 2024 (lbs)Change from March to April 2024 (%)
Butter331.7 million317.3 million361.3 million44 million13.9%
Cheese1.47 billion1.45 billion1.46 billion5.6 million0.4%

According to the USDA’s April Cold Storage report, butter inventories notably increased. As of April 30, there were 361.3 million pounds of butter in storage, up 44 million pounds from March – the most significant jump since the pandemic. This rise indicates strong domestic production outpacing demand, with stocks now up 9% from last year, highlighting consistent growth in 2024. 

Conversely, the cheese market experienced milder growth. Cheese stocks rose by only 5.6 million pounds from March to April, totaling 1.46 billion pounds by the end of April, down 0.6% from last year. This limited increase is mainly due to a surge in cheese exports this spring. However, with U.S. cheese prices losing global competitiveness, these exports may slow down, potentially changing this trend.

Export Dynamics: The Balancing Act of U.S. Cheese Inventory 

YearCheese ExportsPrice CompetitivenessKey Markets
2020800 million lbsHighMexico, South Korea, Japan
2021850 million lbsModerateMexico, South Korea, Canada
2022900 million lbsHighMexico, China, Japan
2023950 million lbsModerateMexico, South Korea, Australia
2024500 million lbs (estimated)LowMexico, South Korea, Japan

Cheese exports have significantly influenced U.S. cheese inventories this spring. Increased exports have helped manage domestic cheese stocks despite high production levels. However, with U.S. cheese prices losing their competitive edge onthe global market, exports will likely slow. This may result in growing domestic cheese stocks, presenting new challenges for inventory management.

Looking Ahead: Promising Outlook for Dairy Margins

Looking ahead, dairy margins show promise. In Q2 2024, margins ranged from -$0.11 to a high of $3.71, with the latest at $3.02, in the 95.5th percentile over the past decade. This is a solid historical position. For Q3 2024, margins vary from $1.73 to $4.49, currently at the high end of $4.49, in the 93.4th percentile. This suggests continued profitability. Q4 2024 sees more variability, with margins from $1.81 to $3.54, currently at $3.54, in the 88.6th percentile. Lastly, Q1 2025 shows a slight dip with margins from $1.63 to $2.61, but still favorable at the 91.8th percentile. These figures depict an optimistic outlook for dairy margins in the coming quarters, driven by solid milk prices and stable feed costs.

The Bottom Line

Due to rising milk prices and weakening feed markets, recent market dynamics have boosted dairy margins. Despite a year-over-year drop in milk production, USDA data revisions show smaller declines and changes in dairy herd numbers. Butter and cheese inventory trends emphasize the importance of diligent market monitoring. 

Understanding these margins and staying informed is crucial for dairy producers. Fluctuations in butter and cheese stocks highlight the industry’s ever-changing landscape. Extending coverage in deferred marketing periods can offer strategic advantages. 

Stay ahead by monitoring industry reports like the CIH Margin Watch report. For more information, visit www.cihmarginwatch.com. Adapting to market changes is critical to sustaining profitability in the dairy industry.

Key Takeaways:

  • Improved Dairy Margins: Late May witnessed a significant rise in dairy margins as milk prices rallied and feed costs dropped.
  • Milk Production Trends: Though milk production is still down compared to last year, the rate of decline is slowing, signaling a move towards stability.
  • USDA Reports: April figures showed a smaller-than-expected decrease in milk production and larger inventories of butter, while cheese inventories grew at a slower pace.
  • Future Margins: Projections show promising dairy margins through the end of 2024 and into early 2025, suggesting sustained profitability for dairy farmers.


Summary: The dairy market experienced a significant upturn in May due to rising milk prices and decreased feed costs, boosting profitability for dairy producers. Despite milk production still trailing last year, the gap is gradually closing, indicating a path to recovery. The USDA’s latest reports provide crucial insights that can potentially shape the dairy market. Milk production margins improved in late May, with milk production dropping 0.4% from last year, the smallest decline in 2023. Weaker feed markets lowered costs, setting the stage for improved profitability. Farmers are strategically extending coverage in deferred marketing periods to maximize these gains. Milk production trends show a continued year-over-year decline, but the gap is narrowing, hinting at stability. The USDA’s April report recorded 19.135 billion pounds of milk, a slight 0.4% drop from last year, indicating that production levels may stabilize. A revision of March data revealed a 0.7% decrease compared to the reported 1.0%, suggesting that the production landscape might be improving. Looking ahead, dairy margins show promise, with Q2 2024 margins ranging from -$0.11 to a high of $3.71, Q3 2024 margins ranging from $1.73 to $4.49, Q4 2024 margins from $1.81 to $3.54, and Q1 2025 margins from $1.63 to $2.61.

Butter Prices Surge and Plummet: A Wild Week in Dairy Markets

Discover the rollercoaster ride of butter prices this week. Why did they surge and then plummet? Dive into the latest trends and market insights in dairy.

Get ready for a wild ride in the dairy marketButter prices hit a spring high last Friday but plunged early this week, causing traders and buyers to wonder if such price jumps are sustainable. 

“Butter values plunged early this week after hitting a new high last Friday. Traders spent the long weekend debating if prices should surpass previous years when today’s production, imports, and stocks are all higher than in 2022 and 2023,” noted market analysts. 

This butter price rollercoaster impacts the broader dairy industry. From cheese to whole milk powder and whey, these price shifts affect other dairy products. In this article, we explore the latest trends and key factors shaping the dairy market’s present and future.

Dairy ProductAvg PriceQuantity Traded (4 wk Trend)
Butter$3.02449
Cheese Blocks$1.823114
Cheese Barrels$1.95508
Non-Fat Dry Milk$1.16759
Whey$0.403111

Butter Prices Tumble After New Spring High, Sending Shockwaves Through Dairy Market

After notching a new spring high last Friday, butter values plunged early this week. Buyers, driven by fears of tighter supplies and higher fall prices, initially pushed the market to new heights. However, despite strong domestic consumption and increased international demand, the current production, imports, and stocks are higher than in previous years. 

The anticipated spring flush in milk production failed to alleviate supply chain issues, adding to market volatility. Traders spent the long weekend debating whether current prices justified the recent highs. This resulted in a steep selloff on Tuesday morning as traders rushed to offload holdings, causing a brief but sharp decline in butter prices.

By Thursday, butter buyers showed renewed enthusiasm, aiming to avoid higher costs in the fall. Their robust willingness to pay $3 or more per pound lifted spot butter prices close to last Friday’s peak. Ultimately, spot butter closed the week at $3.09, reflecting strategic foresight in securing their dairy needs early.

Cheese Market Adjusts as Domestic Demand and Export Dynamics Shape Pricing Trends

The cheese market faced a notable pullback this week, driven by shifts in domestic demand and export dynamics. Retailers have boosted domestic interest by promoting lower-priced cheese bought earlier in the year, moving significant volumes. However, the balancing act between competitive pricing and strong export sales remains delicate. 

Early 2024 saw strong export activity, especially in February and March, helping to keep inventories in check. Yet, fears are growing that $2 cheese could deter future international buyers, pushing the market to find a sustainable and fluid price point. As a result, cheese is expected to stay above January through April levels, despite recent corrections. 

This week, CME spot Cheddar blocks fell 6 cents to $1.81, and barrels dropped 4 cents to $1.94, marking the market’s ongoing efforts to effectively balance supply and demand.

Mixed Results at Global Dairy Trade Pulse Auction Highlight Market Divergence

The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) Pulse auction showed mixed results. Whole milk powder (WMP) prices climbed to their highest since October 2022. Meanwhile, skim milk powder (SMP) prices dipped after last week’s gains. This highlights differing trends within the dairy sector.

Nonfat Dry Milk Prices Show Slight Dip Amid Bullish Futures Market Projections

This week, nonfat dry milk (NDM) prices dipped slightly, with CME spot NDM falling 0.75ȼ to $1.1675. Futures, however, remain bullish. June contracts hover around $1.17, but fourth-quarter futures trade in the mid-$1.20s, targeting $1.30 by early 2025. The market anticipates tighter milk supplies and reduced output, awaiting a demand-driven rally to intensify the upward trend.

Whey Market Defies Dairy Commodity Downtrend with Robust Performance and Rising Prices

Amidst a general decline in dairy commodities, the whey market has shown striking resilience. CME spot whey powder rose by 1.5ȼ this week to 41.5ȼ, hitting a two-month high. This surge is driven by robust domestic demand for high-protein whey products. Processors are focusing on these segments, reducing whey for drying and tightening supply, thereby lifting prices across the whey market.

Class IV and Class III Futures Reflect Dynamic Dairy Market Shifts and Supply Concerns

This week saw noticeable shifts in Class IV and Class III futures, driven by changes in the cheese market and broader dairy supply concerns. Class IV futures dropped, with most contracts ending about 60ȼ lower since last Friday, putting May and June contracts in the high $20s per cwt, and July to December above $21 per cwt. 

In contrast, Class III futures showed mixed results. The June Class III fell by 41ȼ to $19.47 per cwt, still an improvement for dairy producers after months of low revenues. Meanwhile, July through October contracts increased by 20 to 60ȼ, indicating market expectations for $20 milk. 

Cheese market trends are key here. Domestic demand is up, driven by retail promotions, and exports remain strong, keeping inventories stable. Yet, there’s concern about maintaining export momentum with potential $2 cheese prices. Finding a balanced price to keep products moving is critical. 

For dairy producers, these developments offer cautious optimism. Near-term futures show slight adjustments, but expectations of tighter milk supplies and higher cheese demand provide a promising outlook. The rise in Class III contracts suggests a favorable environment, backed by strong cheese demand and strategic pricing for exports.

Spring Flush and Seasonal Dynamics Raise Concerns Over Future Milk Supply Tightness

The spring flush, holiday weekend, and drop-off in school milk orders have resulted in ample milk for processors. However, higher prices signal concerns about potential rapid supply tightening. According to USDA’s Dairy Market News, milk was spread thin last summer with more tankers moving south, and a similar situation is expected in summer 2024, although overall milk access has been lighter this year than in the first half of 2023. This suggests that immediate milk abundance might be quickly offset by long-term supply constraints.

Bird Flu, Heifer Shortage, and Herd Dynamics Pose Multifaceted Challenges for 2024 Milk Production

The dairy industry is grappling with several critical issues that could disrupt milk production for the rest of the year. Key among these is the persistent bird flu, which continues to affect herds in major milk-producing states like Idaho and Michigan and is now spreading into the Northern Plains. 

Compounding the problem is the ongoing heifer shortage. Dairy producers are finding it increasingly difficult to keep their barns and bulk tanks full due to limited availability of replacement heifers. The high demand has driven up prices, leading some producers to sell any extra heifers they have, though this only temporarily eases the shortage. 

At the same time, dairy cow slaughter volumes have plummeted as producers retain low-production milk cows to maintain or grow herd sizes. While this strategy aims to increase milk output, it involves keeping less efficient cows longer, which could hinder overall growth. These challenges together create an uncertain outlook for milk production in the months ahead.

Farmers Navigate Weather Challenges to Meet Corn Planting Goals Amid Future Market Volatility

Intermittent sunshine gave farmers just enough time to catch up with the average corn planting pace. As they dodge showers and storms, some in fringe areas may switch crops, while others might opt for prevented planting insurance rather than risk fields for sub-$5 corn. The trade remains cautious, gauging the wet spring’s impact on yield and acreage. However, the moisture might be welcome as we approach a potentially hot, dry La Niña summer. Consequently, July corn futures dropped nearly 20ȼ to $4.46 per bushel, and soybean meal plummeted $21 to $364.70 per ton.

The Bottom Line

This week, the dairy market experienced significant shifts, with butter prices dropping sharply before partially recovering, reflecting ongoing volatility. Cheese prices also declined, although strong domestic demand and exports helped stabilize the market. Interestingly, whey prices bucked the trend, driven by robust demand for high-protein products. 

Looking forward, the dairy market is set for continued fluctuations. The spring flush and current weather conditions are creating short-term abundance, but concerns over milk supply tightness are already influencing pricing. The combined effects of bird flu, heifer shortages, and keeping lower-yield cows highlight the challenges for dairy producers. As these issues evolve, they will shape market dynamics throughout 2024. Stakeholders must remain vigilant and adaptable, as milk production constraints and demand pressures could test the market’s resilience.

Key Takeaways:

  • Butter prices experienced a sharp decline early in the week, following a new spring high last Friday, leading to market reassessment and volatility.
  • Cheese prices retreated due to shifts in domestic demand and concerns over the sustainability of export sales at higher price points.
  • Mixed results at the Global Dairy Trade Pulse auction highlighted market divergence, with whole milk powder values increasing and skim milk powder prices retreating.
  • Despite a slight dip in nonfat dry milk prices, futures market projections remain bullish, anticipating a rise in values due to tighter milk supplies.
  • The whey market outperformed other dairy commodities, showing robust demand and rising prices amidst an industry downtrend.
  • Class IV and Class III futures markets reflected the dynamic dairy market shifts, with fluctuations in pricing due to current supply concerns.
  • Seasonal dynamics and spring flush raised concerns over future milk supplies, as high temperatures and declining school orders impact availability.
  • Challenges such as the bird flu and heifer shortage continue to pressure 2024 milk production, complicating the supply chain and market equilibrium.
  • Farmers navigated adverse weather conditions to meet corn planting goals, reflecting broader agricultural market volatility and future crop yields’ uncertainty.
  • Overall, dairy markets faced significant price fluctuations and supply chain challenges, underlining the importance of strategic planning and market adaptation.

Summary: Butter prices reached a new spring high last Friday, but plummeted early this week, raising concerns about the sustainability of these prices. Current production, imports, and stocks are higher than in 2022 and 2023, posing challenges for dairy producers. The anticipated spring flush in milk production failed to alleviate supply chain issues, adding to market volatility. Butter buyers showed renewed enthusiasm to avoid higher costs in the fall. Spot butter closed the week at $3.09, reflecting strategic foresight in securing dairy needs early. The cheese market faced a pullback this week due to shifts in domestic demand and export dynamics. Retailers promoted lower-priced cheese bought earlier in the year, moving significant volumes. Balancing competitive pricing and strong export sales remains delicate, and fears that $2 cheese could deter future international buyers push the market to find a sustainable price point.

Milk Markets Surge Higher on Late Week Buying: Class III & IV Gain Momentum

Uncover the dynamics driving late-week surges in the milk markets. Witness the ascent of Class III and IV milk prices. Eager to learn about the latest movements in dairy and grain sectors? Continue reading.

The milk markets experienced a volatile week, culminating in a significant late-week surge that notably impacted Class III and Class IV milk prices. The strength of class III milk, particularly in the latter half of the year, was a key highlight. July’s contracts saw a substantial increase of 43 cents to $20.29, while August mirrored this trend with a 46-cent climb to the same price of $20.29/cwt. In contrast, earlier months such as May and June were more subdued, with May closing at $18.60 and June showing a minimal increase of just 2 cents to $19.38/cwt. 

Market analysts observed, “The late-week buying frenzy brought a refreshing upswing to the milk markets, particularly benefiting Class III prices in the latter months of the year.” 

Class IV milk prices demonstrated a more tempered response, maintaining stability despite a modest gain in butter prices. May’s contracts settled at $20.57, June at $20.84, and July reached $21.31/cwt. These figures underscore the nuanced variations within the different milk classes, reflecting broader market dynamics and investor sentiment.

Class III Milk Enjoys Summer Surge Amid Subdued Early-Year Performance

DateMayJuneJulyAugust
Monday$18.60$19.36$19.86$19.83
Tuesday$18.60$19.37$19.96$19.94
Wednesday$18.60$19.38$20.09$20.05
Thursday$18.60$19.38$20.15$20.15
Friday$18.60$19.38$20.29$20.29

Class III milk experienced a notable improvement in the latter part of the year. July increased by 43 cents to reach $20.29 per hundredweight (cwt), while August followed with a rise of 46 cents, also hitting $20.29/cwt. In contrast, May ended at $18.60, showing little change, and June gained just 2 cents to close at $19.38/cwt. These numbers highlight a clear seasonal trend, with more robust market dynamics emerging in the summer months for Class III milk.

Class IV Milk Market Remains Steady Amid Modest Butter Price Gains 

FutureMayJuneJuly
Monday$20.57$20.84$21.31
Tuesday$20.57$20.84$21.31
Wednesday$20.57$20.84$21.31
Thursday$20.57$20.84$21.31
Friday$20.57$20.84$21.31

The week in the dairy market has displayed notable shifts, particularly in the Class IV milk futures. Despite the muted movement, the overall trend leans toward stability with a few upward adjustments compensating for earlier lukewarm phases. For a clearer illustration, let’s delve into the Class IV milk futures trends over the past week: 

Class IV milk prices remained steady compared to Class III, showing minimal volatility. Class IV milk held its ground despite a modest 6-cent rise in butter prices. May closed at $20.57/cwt, June slightly up at $20.84, and July continued this trend at $21.31. These figures highlight a consistent market with gradual gains, reflecting the steady performance of Class IV milk.

The CME Spot Trade Closes the Week with Significant Activity in the Dairy

ProductMondayTuesdayWednesdayThursdayFridayWeekly Trend
Butter ($/lb)$3.03$3.04$3.05$3.07$3.09▲6 cents
Cheddar Blocks ($/lb)$1.81$1.81$1.81$1.81$1.81
Cheddar Barrels ($/lb)$1.94$1.94$1.94$1.94$1.94
Dry Whey ($/lb)$0.41$0.41$0.41$0.41$0.41 1/2▲1/2 cent
Grade A Non Fat Dry Milk ($/lb)$1.16$1.16$1.16$1.16$1.16 3/4▲3/4 cent

The CME spot trade saw significant action in the dairy sector, especially in the butter and cheese markets. Butter prices rose 6 cents to $3.09 per pound, hinting at increased demand or limited supply, which could positively impact the broader dairy market. 

Cheddar cheese prices remained stable, with Blocks at $1.81 and Barrels at $1.94 per pound. This consistency suggests a balanced market without primary surpluses or deficits. 

The block/barrel spread stayed inverted at 13 cents, indicating supply concerns or quality preferences. Typically, Blocks are pricier due to their broader use and better quality. The sustained average price of $1.87 1/2 per pound reflects the market’s effort to balance these differences, providing insight into future price trends in the dairy sector.

Powder Markets Show Promise with Incremental Price Gains

ProductPrice (per lb)ChangeTrend
Dry Whey$0.41½+1 centUp
Grade A Non Fat Dry Milk$1.16¾+½ centUp

The powder markets exhibited a solid performance this past week, signaling promise in this sector. Dry Whey climbed by a penny to $0.41 1/2 per pound, indicating a steady demand. This rise may suggest market stability amid fluctuating dairy prices. 

Grade A Non-Fat Dry Whey also increased by 1/2 cent, reaching $1.16 3/4 per pound. This small but significant uptick reflects the strength of the dairy industry and hints at a balanced supply and demand. These incremental gains not only reinforce market stability but also inspire confidence in the potential growth of the powder markets, which could have broader economic implications for those invested in commodities.

Grain and Feed Markets Reflect Broader Economic and Environmental Instabilities

CommodityContract MonthClosing PricePrice Change
CornJuly$4.46 1/4Down 2 1/2 cents
SoybeansJuly$12.05Down 4 3/4 cents
Soybean MealJuly$364.10/tonUp $1.10
WheatJuly$6.78Down 2 1/2 cents
RiceJuly$17.67Down 16 cents
Feeder CattleAugust$256.40Down $2.67

The grain and feed markets faced a notable shift towards the weekend, marked by varied price movements across critical commodities. Corn slipped slightly, with July futures closing at $4.46 1/4, down 2 1/2 cents. This minor dip mirrors broader market trends where corn battles to sustain momentum amid changing demand-supply dynamics. Soybeans followed suit, with July futures dropping 4 3/4 cents to $12.05 per bushel, reflecting ongoing market volatility and the impact of trade conditions and weather on crop yields. 

Despite a modest rise in soybean meal prices, the feed markets remained complex. July prices increased by $1.10, finishing the week at $364.10 per ton. However, prices remained over $25 per ton below earlier weekly highs, underscoring the intricate and volatile nature of the feed markets. These shifts serve as a reminder of the need for caution in the grain and feed sectors, mirroring the broader economic and environmental uncertainties.

The Bottom Line

The week concluded with a notable rise in milk markets, spurred by a robust late-week surge in Class III milk. Gains in July and August highlighted its strength, contrasting a quieter early-year performance. Class IV milk displayed a steadiness, with modest butter price increases

Significant activity marked the CME spot trade, with butter and cheese showing price movements and powder markets finishing the week with gains. In contrast, grain and feed markets slid into the weekend, impacted by economic and environmental challenges. Corn, soybeans, and soybean meal exhibited varied performances, reflecting the intricate dynamics of agricultural markets.

Key Takeaways:

  • Class III milk prices experienced an encouraging surge in late-week trading, showing notable gains for July and August contracts.
  • Earlier months like May and June saw more modest price movements, with minimal increases observed.
  • Class IV milk prices remained relatively stable, with slight upward adjustments despite varied commodity performance within the dairy market.
  • The CME spot trade highlighted a 6-cent gain in Butter prices, while Cheddar Blocks and Barrels maintained their previous levels, keeping the block/barrel spread inverted.
  • Powder markets closed the week on a positive note, with Dry Whey and Grade A Non-Fat Dry Whey inching upward.
  • Grain and feed markets displayed downward trends, with slight declines in corn and soybeans and a notable drop in soybean meal from earlier highs.

Summary: The milk markets experienced a volatile week, culminating in a late-week surge that significantly impacted Class III and Class IV milk prices. Class III milk experienced a significant improvement in the latter part of the year, with July’s contracts seeing a substantial increase of 43 cents to $20.29, and August mirrored this trend with a 46-cent climb to the same price. In contrast, earlier months such as May and June were more subdued, with May closing at $18.60 and June showing a minimal increase of just 2 cents to $19.38/cwt. Market analysts observed that the late-week buying frenzy brought a refreshing upswing to the milk markets, particularly benefiting Class III prices in the latter months of the year. The dairy market displayed notable shifts, particularly in Class IV milk futures, with the overall trend leaning toward stability with a few upward adjustments compensating for earlier lukewarm phases.

April 2024 DMC Margin Holds at $9.60 per CWT Despite Steady Feed Costs

Discover how April 2024’s DMC margin held at $9.60 per cwt despite steady feed costs. Curious about the factors influencing this stability? Read on to find out more.

April concluded on a reassuring note for dairy producers , with a robust $9.60 per cwt income over the feed cost margin through the DMC program. Despite the challenges posed by strong feed markets, milk prices remained steady, ensuring no indemnity payments for the second time this year. This stability in income is a testament to the reliability of the DMC program. 

MonthMilk Price ($/cwt)Total Feed Cost ($/cwt)Margin Above Feed Cost ($/cwt)
February 2024$21.00$11.10$9.90
March 2024$20.70$11.05$9.65
April 2024$20.50$10.90$9.60

The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) , released its Agricultural Prices report on May 31. This report, which served as the basis for calculating April’s DMC margins, demonstrated how a late-month milk price rally balanced steady feed market conditions

The DMC program, a key pillar of risk management for dairy producers, protects against rising feed costs and milk prices, ensuring a stable income. In addition, programs like Dairy Revenue Protection (Dairy-RP) play a crucial role, covering 27% of the U.S. milk supply and providing net gains of 23 cents per cwt over five years. 

“April’s margin stability shows milk prices’ resilience against fluctuating feed costs, a balance crucial for dairy producers,” said an industry analyst. 

April’s total feed costs fell to $10.90 per cwt, down 15 cents from March, while the milk price dipped to $20.50 per cwt, down 20 cents. This kept the margin at $9.60 per cwt, just 5 cents lower than March. 

Milk price changes varied by state. Florida and Georgia saw a 30-cent increase per cwt, and Pennsylvania and Virginia saw a 10-cent rise. In contrast, Idaho and Texas saw no change. Oregon experienced a $1.10 per cwt drop. 

The market fluctuations observed in April underscore the dynamic nature of the dairy market. In such a scenario, the importance of risk management programs like DMC and Dairy-RP cannot be overstated. As of March 4, over 17,000 dairy operations were enrolled in the DMC for 2023, with 2024 enrollment open until April 29. This proactive approach to risk management is crucial for navigating the uncertainties of the dairy market.

Key Takeaways:

  • April’s Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) margin was $9.60 per hundredweight (cwt), with no indemnity payments triggered for the second time in 2024.
  • USDA NASS’s Agricultural Prices report detailed April’s margins and feed costs, revealing a robust dairy income despite strong feed markets.
  • Notable changes included Alfalfa hay at $260 per ton (down $11), corn at $4.39 per bushel (up 3 cents), and soybean meal at $357.68 per ton (down $4.49).
  • Milk prices averaged $20.50 per cwt, marking a slight 20-cent drop from March but sufficient to offset stable feed costs.
  • Major dairy states mostly saw a 20-cent decrease in milk price, with a few exceptions like Florida, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Virginia experiencing modest growth.

Summary: Dairy producers in April reported a robust income of $9.60 per cwt over the feed cost margin through the DMC program. Despite strong feed markets, milk prices remained steady, ensuring no indemnity payments for the second time this year. This stability in income is a testament to the reliability of the DMC program. The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its Agricultural Prices report on May 31, which calculated April’s DMC margins. Programs like Dairy Revenue Protection (Dairy-RP) play a crucial role, covering 27% of the U.S. milk supply and providing net gains of 23 cents per cwt over five years. Market fluctuations underscore the dynamic nature of the dairy market, emphasizing the importance of risk management programs like DMC and Dairy-RP.

Will Milk Production Sustain Its Strength Amid Market Surprises and Rising Futures?

Will milk production sustain its strength amid market surprises and rising futures? Discover the factors influencing milk output and market volatility this year.

Analyst pointing the chart.

In recent months, the dairy industry has faced a challenging landscape with expected production declines, economic pressures, and health concerns. However, April’s surprise milk production report revealed a remarkable resilience in milk output. This stability has notably influenced Class III futures, which experienced significant drops due to stronger-than-expected production figures, instilling a sense of confidence in the industry’s ability to adapt. 

April Milk Production Report Defies Expectations, Showcases Unexpected Resilience

MonthTop 24 States Production (Billion Pounds)National Production (Billion Pounds)Percent Change from Last Year (Top 24 States)Percent Change from Last Year (National)
April17.619.0-0.5%-0.7%
March17.819.2-0.9%-1.0%
February16.517.7-1.3%-1.4%
January17.218.4-0.4%-0.5%
December17.518.80.0%0.0%
November17.418.60.2%0.3%

The April Milk Production report defied forecasts of a sharp decline in milk output. Analysts predicted a drop due to the H5N1 virus, dwindling heifer supply, and increased culling rates from low milk prices. However, the data revealed a more resilient industry landscape, underscoring the need for caution in predicting the impact of the H5N1 virus on milk production. 

Significantly, March’s production figures were revised. Initially, March decreased sharply—down 0.9% in the top 24 states and 1.0% nationwide. The April report revised this to a 0.5% decline in the top 24 states and 0.7% nationwide, indicating more excellent stability than initially thought. 

The severe downturn in milk output did not materialize as expected. Factors like the H5N1 virus and reduced heifer availability exerted less pressure than anticipated. This resilience affected market dynamics, lowering Class III futures and easing industry anxieties about prolonged declines.

Market Sentiment Spurs Notable Increases in Class III and IV Futures Amid Tightening Milk Production

MonthClass III ($/cwt)Class IV ($/cwt)
May 202224.6525.73
June 202225.8726.52
July 202222.5225.79
August 202220.1024.81
September 202219.8224.63
October 202221.3424.96
November 202221.0123.66
December 202220.5023.92
January 202319.4321.99
February 202317.7820.67
March 202318.4021.06
April 202317.6720.33

The perception of tightening milk production significantly influenced Class III and Class IV futures, causing notable increases. As market sentiment leaned towards a decrease in milk output, primarily influenced by factors such as the H5N1 virus, heifer supply constraints, and increased culling due to low milk prices, traders anticipated lower milk availability. This anticipation spurred a rise in milk futures prices, with Class III futures experiencing a more pronounced impact due to a combination of perceived supply constraints and a surge in spot cheese prices. Consequently, the June contract for Class III rose by over $5.00 per cwt. On the other hand, Class IV futures, while also bolstered by production concerns, saw their price increases driven predominantly by the rise in spot butter prices. Thus, while both Class III and Class IV futures reacted to the overarching theme of tightening supply, the specific price dynamics within the dairy commodities—cheese for Class III and butter for Class IV—played crucial roles in their respective futures markets, highlighting the importance of flexible hedging strategies to navigate these market dynamics.

The April Production Report Offers Critical Insight into the Actual Impact of the H5N1 Virus on Milk Production 

The April production report sheds light on the impact of the H5N1 virus on milk production. Texas, hit hardest by the virus, saw a 3.3% year-over-year decline in milk production, with milk per cow dropping by 55 pounds and a herd reduction of 5,000. 

In contrast, Michigan reported a 0.5% increase in overall milk production, despite a slight decrease of 5 pounds per cow, and added 3,000 cows to its herd. This highlights the virus’s variable impact, influenced by herd health, management practices, and local conditions. 

While the H5N1 virus does affect milk production, the extent varies widely. Local dynamics play a crucial role, indicating that national forecasts may not accurately predict regional outcomes.

Beyond the H5N1 Virus Concerns, perhaps the Most Pressing Issue Facing Dairy Producers is the Ongoing Scarcity of Heifers. 

The ongoing scarcity of heifers remains a critical issue for dairy producers. Breeding a portion of the dairy herd to beef has tightened heifer supplies, rendering them scarce and expensive. While financially beneficial, this strategic move poses sustainability challenges for milk production. 

Recent increases in Class III and IV milk futures have eased some pressure, with higher milk prices encouraging producers to retain heifers despite high costs. The April Livestock Slaughter report highlighted reduced culling, as optimism for better milk prices leads to retaining more cows. 

Yet, this balance is fragile. If milk prices fail to meet optimistic projections, increased culling and further strain on heifer supplies may follow. The interplay of breeding practices, heifer availability, and market trends requires strategic management by dairy producers. 

April Livestock Slaughter Report Reveals Significant Decline in Dairy Cattle Processing, Reflects Market Sensitivity to Rising Milk Futures and Pricing Expectations

MonthDairy Cattle Slaughter (Head)Change from Previous MonthChange from Previous Year
April 2023238,200-6,400-5,400
March 2023244,600-5,300-4,700
February 2023249,900+3,200-8,300

The April Livestock Slaughter report showed a significant drop in dairy cattle slaughter, with 238,200 head processed. This is down 6,400 head from March and 5,400 head from April 2023, marking the lowest monthly slaughter since December 2023 and the lowest April count since 2022. This decline is influenced by rising milk futures and expectations of higher milk prices, reducing the need for aggressive culling. Producers are holding onto more cows, promoting a stable milk production outlook. The report’s findings indicate that the market is reacting to the expectation of tightening milk supply, as reflected in the rising futures prices, and adjusting its production strategies accordingly. 

This trend highlights the dairy industry’s adaptability. Producers may sustain or even increase milk output by slowing the culling rate in the near term, emphasizing the importance of efficient herd management. Monitoring dairy cattle slaughter rates will be essential for predicting shifts in milk production and market dynamics as the year progresses.

Market Perception as a Potent Catalyst: Navigating the Volatile Landscape of Milk Futures

Market perception is a powerful catalyst for volatility in milk futures, driven by expected supply and demand dynamics. As producers, traders, and investors react to reports, the perceived health of milk production can inflate or deflate futures prices overnight. This means that the market’s perception of the future supply and demand for milk, based on factors such as the H5N1 virus, heifer scarcity, and increased culling, can significantly impact future prices. This perception-driven volatility opens avenues for both potential gains and frustrations, as it can lead to unexpected price fluctuations that can either benefit or harm market participants. 

Opportunities arise as the market reacts, enabling astute traders and producers to capitalize on price fluctuations. A deep understanding of market sentiment allows positioning for maximum returns. Anticipating production downturns leads to timely investments before futures surge, while recognizing overblown fears of shortages can present cost-saving buy-ins when prices dip. 

Volatility also introduces frustrations, especially for those lacking the means or expertise to navigate rapid market swings. Misjudging market direction can result in significant financial setbacks, particularly when based on incomplete or incorrect information. The unpredictability of factors affecting production—like disease outbreaks or changes in breeding practices—adds complexity to price forecasting. 

In this environment, robust and flexible hedging strategies are crucial. These strategies help manage exposure to adverse price movements while allowing stakeholders to capitalize on favorable trends. Hedging provides a safety net, reducing risk and ensuring resilience against market perception’s whims. As volatility brings opportunities and challenges, flexible hedging approaches adapt to changing market conditions, fostering more responsive operations.

The Bottom Line

The April Milk Production report showcased unexpected resilience in milk output, revealing a minimal decline despite initial fears driven by the H5N1 virus and a tightening heifer supply. Some states even recorded increased per-cow yields. This perception of potential shortages caused a notable rise in Class III and IV milk futures, fueled by speculative price increases in spot cheese and butter

Heifer availability remains a long-term challenge for dairy producers, raising concerns about sustainable production levels. The April Livestock Slaughter report reflected a reduced rate of dairy cattle processing, indicating producers’ sensitivity to rising milk futures and potential higher prices, contributing to a cautious market environment. 

The year ahead remains uncertain as market sentiment drives volatility in milk futures. While current production levels suggest stability, the long-term maintenance hinges on improved demand. With increased demand, milk prices may reach the optimistic predictions currently priced in the future. Stakeholders need to employ flexible hedging strategies amid this volatile market landscape.

Key Takeaways:

  • April’s milk production report surprised many by showing stronger-than-expected output, resulting in a significant drop in Class III futures.
  • Revisions in March’s milk production figures show a less drastic decline than initially reported, suggesting some resilience in the market.
  • Despite concerns, the H5N1 virus has not yet had a significant impact on overall milk production.
  • The scarcity of heifers and increased culling due to low milk prices remain pressing challenges for dairy producers.
  • The recent rise in milk futures prices reflects market sentiment anticipating a tighter milk supply, driven by various perceived risks and actual economic pressures.
  • April’s livestock slaughter report indicates a decrease in dairy cattle slaughter, easing some concerns about long-term production declines.
  • Both Class III and Class IV futures experienced price increases, but for different reasons: Class III due to cheese prices and perceived supply constraints; Class IV primarily from butter prices.
  • Effective and adaptable hedging strategies are essential to navigate the anticipated market volatility and capitalize on favorable trends.

Summary: The dairy industry has been facing challenges such as expected production declines, economic pressures, and health concerns. However, April’s milk production report showed remarkable resilience in milk output, affecting Class III futures, which experienced significant drops due to stronger-than-expected production figures. Factors like the H5N1 virus and reduced heifer availability exerted less pressure than anticipated, lowering Class III futures and easing industry anxieties about prolonged declines. Market sentiment leaned towards a decrease in milk output, primarily influenced by factors such as the H5N1 virus, heifer supply constraints, and increased culling due to low milk prices. This anticipation spurred a rise in milk futures prices, with Class III futures experiencing a more pronounced impact due to perceived supply constraints and a surge in spot cheese prices. Class IV futures saw price increases driven predominantly by the rise in spot butter prices. The April Livestock Slaughter report revealed a significant decline in dairy cattle slaughter, with 238,200 head processed, marking the lowest monthly slaughter since December 2023 and the lowest April count since 2022. Robust and flexible hedging strategies are crucial in managing exposure to adverse price movements and allowing stakeholders to capitalize on favorable trends.

Is 2024 Shaping Up to Be a Disappointing Year for Dairy Exports and Milk Yields?

Are dairy exports and milk production set for another uninspiring year in 2024? Discover the trends and expert insights shaping the industry’s future.

Bart Peer, voeren van vet aan melkvee in Beuningen t.b.v. Misset/Boerderij Opdrachtnummer: 416573 Kostenplaats 06003 Fotograaf: Van Assendelft Fotografie

The dairy industry‘s backbone has been its milk yields and exports, critical for regional economies and farmers’ livelihoods. While demand for high-quality dairy products boosts growth and revenue, the sector faces significant changes. 

The U.S. dairy industry is currently at a crossroads. Year-over-year milk production declined by 1.3% in February 2024. The U.S. milking cowherd has shrunk monthly since June 2023, with limited heifer availability adding to the woes. Despite some resilience in milk component production from December to February, larger challenges overshadow these gains. 

“It’s hard to imagine milk production making material improvements with cow numbers down year-over-year, heifers in short supply, and rough economics in several regions,” says Phil Plourd, president of Ever.Ag Insight. 

With fewer cows, economic stress, and stagnant heifer replacements, 2024 may bring more uninspiring results. Consequently, the dairy sector‘s growth and sustainability metrics could fall short, impacting potential recovery and expansion.

Understanding The Decline: Year-Over-Year Milk Production Trends

Notably, the USDA Milk Production Report highlights a 2% year-over-year decline across 24 central states in April. This pattern aligns with nationwide trends, reflecting more profound systemic challenges in the U.S. dairy sector. Although May 2024 saw a slight increase in per-cow output, total production fell marginally. 

Several key points arise from these reports. The persistent reduction in herd size contrasts with improved per-cow productivity, which fails to offset the decline fully. The milking cow population has dropped to 8.89 million head, a year-over-year reduction of 55,000. 

Regional disparities add complexity. Some areas sustain or boost production slightly, but places like New Mexico saw a drastic 17.3% decline, exposing regional vulnerabilities. 

The economic landscape, marked by falling prices and moderate shipment volume growth, also dampens producers’ recovery prospects. Thus, closely monitoring economic conditions will be crucial for predicting future milk production trends.

YearMilk Production Volume (in billion lbs)Year-Over-Year Change (%)
2020223.2+2.2%
2021225.6+1.1%
2022223.5-0.9%
2023220.0-1.6%

Analyzing Annual Shifts in Dairy Export Patterns

The past year has marked significant changes in dairy export trends, with volume and value experiencing notable fluctuations. Although 2023 saw U.S. dairy exports total $8.11 billion, this represented a 16% decrease from the record year of 2022, highlighting the volatility of global dairy markets

One primary factor in these shifts is the decline in domestic milk production, directly impacting export volumes. Despite some milk and milk component production growth from December to February, the overall trend remains challenging. 

Volatile agricultural markets and external factors like El Niño weather patterns have further complicated global supply chains. Additionally, reductions in farmgate milk prices and persistent on-farm inflation continue to strain U.S. dairy farms.

YearTotal Export Value (in billion USD)Percentage Change from Previous YearKey Factors
20206.2+5%Stable milk prices, moderate global demand
20217.0+13%Increased global demand, favorable trade agreements
20229.7+19%High global demand, favorable prices, export market expansion
20238.11-16%Weakened global demand, eased prices
2024 (Forecast)8.5+5%Slow recovery in demand, stable prices

Key Determinants in Milk Production Outcomes

Environmental challenges like droughts and extreme weather events have become significant obstacles to stable milk yields. These conditions can severely affect forage quality and availability, impacting the quantity and quality of milk from dairy cows. For instance, droughts reduce grazing land and drive up feed costs, further straining production budgets. 

Rising production costs have also hindered farmers’ ability to invest in essential technologies. Modern dairy farming requires advanced milking systems, automated feeding mechanisms, and enhanced herd management software. Yet, persistent economic pressures and on-farm inflation make such investments challenging, directly affecting milk yields by reducing farm efficiency. 

Labor shortages continue to impede dairy operations. The industry relies on a consistent and skilled workforce. Still, the COVID-19 pandemic and immigration policy uncertainties have left many farms understaffed. This labor scarcity delays essential operations and hinders the implementation of quality control measures, impacting overall milk production.

Key Influencers on Dairy Export Performance

Trade tensions continue to cloud the outlook for U.S. dairy exports. Tariffs and trade barriers stemming from geopolitical conflicts create uncertainty and hinder competitiveness in global markets. These economic disruptions inflate costs and squeeze profit margins for U.S. dairy farmers

Additionally, changing consumer preferences are shifting demand away from traditional dairy products to plant-based alternatives, driven by health and environmental concerns. This trend challenges dairy exporters to develop innovative strategies to recapture market share. 

Moreover, the U.S. dairy industry faces stiff competition from dairy powerhouses like New Zealand and the European Union. These countries are backing their dairy sectors with proactive export strategies and government support, making the global market fiercely competitive. U.S. producers must innovate and improve efficiency to sustain their place in the international market.

Potential Implications for 2024

The anticipated decline in dairy exports could impose significant financial strain on U.S. dairy farmers. With exports representing a crucial revenue stream, any downturn will likely impact their bottom lines and economic stability. This financial pressure may force producers to reassess their operations, potentially leading to further reductions in herd sizes and investments. 

Compounding these challenges, lower milk yields are expected to affect overall supply, which could, in turn, drive up prices. While higher prices might seem beneficial, the reality is more nuanced. Increased prices can lead to reduced consumer demand and heightened competition from global markets, making it harder for U.S. products to remain competitive. 

In light of these hurdles, there is a clear need for government intervention and support to stabilize the industry. Programs such as Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) have relieved producers, and their continuation will be essential. Additionally, new initiatives could be explored in the upcoming Farm Bill to address the evolving challenges faced by the dairy sector, helping to ensure its long-term viability and sustainability.

Producers’ Perspective: Navigating a Challenging Market

Producers nationwide are acutely aware of today’s challenging market. Many are reevaluating their strategies with dwindling cow numbers and fluctuating feed costs driven by volatile agriculture markets and adverse weather conditions. Persistent declines in farmgate milk prices and high production costs continue to squeeze profit margins, leaving dairy farmers in a precarious position. 

In response, innovative measures are being adopted. Beef-on-dairy operations, merging beef genetics with dairy herds, enhance profitability. Raising fewer heifers and cutting operational costs are becoming standard practices. Automation and technology promise to improve efficiency and cost management. 

However, the pandemic-induced labor shortage remains a critical bottleneck, with health concerns and regulatory constraints limiting workforce availability. Producers are diversifying income streams to mitigate these issues, venturing into agritourism or other agricultural enterprises to buffer against market volatility. 

Looking ahead, producers are closely monitoring market dynamics and profit margins, with any potential rebound in milk production depending on improved economic conditions and informed decision-making. Enhanced sustainability practices are also a focus as farmers strive to reduce methane emissions and implement eco-friendly methods.

Future Forecast: What Lies Ahead for Dairy Exports and Production?

The outlook for dairy exports and milk production is complex and shaped by various factors. Dr. Christopher Wolf of Cornell University emphasized the role of El Nino weather patterns, potentially causing feed cost volatility. Combined with persistent on-farm inflation, these conditions challenge dairy producers facing reduced farmgate milk prices. 

The shrinking dairy herd adds to the difficulties, with a limited supply of heifers restricting milk production growth. USDA reports forecast a slight downward trend for 2024. 

However, high beef prices and decreasing milk production might boost milk prices later in the year, offering market stability. Krysta Harden of the U.S. Dairy Export Council aims for a 20% export target, reflecting ambitions to expand the U.S. presence in global dairy markets despite trade uncertainties. 

In contrast, the EU projects a 1% increase in cheese exports but declines in butter and skim milk powder, presenting market gaps that U.S. exports could fill to boost overall value and volume. 

The future of U.S. dairy exports and milk production hinges on economic conditions, weather patterns, and strategic industry moves, requiring stakeholders to stay informed and adaptable.

The Bottom Line

The dairy industry’s challenges in 2024 are undeniable. The outlook appears grim with a persistent decline in milk production, reduced cowherd sizes, and a heifer shortage. Although U.S. dairy exports showed some promise, achieving long-term goals is still being determined amid fluctuating markets and soft milk prices. 

Industry stakeholders must take proactive measures. It is crucial to explore strategies to enhance production efficiency and improve margins. Expanding export opportunities could capitalize on a potential market resurgence later this year. 

The path to recovery is complex but possible. With informed decision-making and efforts to address current challenges, stabilization, and growth are within reach. Adapting to market trends will be vital in navigating these turbulent times successfully.

Key Takeaways:

  • Year-over-year milk production saw a 1.3% decline in February 2024.
  • The U.S. milking cowherd has been consistently shrinking each month since June 2023.
  • Despite a dip in cow numbers and heifer availability, milk component production showed some growth from December through February compared to the previous year.
  • Phil Plourd, president of Ever.Ag Insight, highlights the difficulty in imagining significant improvements in milk production under current conditions.
  • Economist Dan Basse expects tight cow numbers to persist given the static heifer replacement rates.
  • U.S. dairy exports were strong in February 2024; however, they remain below the record levels achieved in 2022.
  • Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) indemnity payments provided essential support to producers in 2023 amid declining feed prices and soft milk prices in 2024.

Summary: The dairy industry, which relies on milk yields and exports for regional economies and farmers’ livelihoods, is facing significant challenges in 2024. In February 2024, year-over-year milk production declined by 1.3%, with the U.S. milking cowherd shrinking monthly since June 2023 and limited heifer availability adding to the woes. Despite some resilience in milk component production from December to February, larger challenges overshadow these gains. The USDA Milk Production Report highlights a 2% year-over-year decline across 24 central states in April, reflecting more profound systemic challenges in the U.S. dairy sector. Regional disparities add complexity, with some areas sustaining or boosting production slightly, while places like New Mexico saw a drastic 17.3% decline. Milk production volume has seen significant changes in the past year, with U.S. dairy exports totaling $8.11 billion in 2023, a 16% decrease from the record year of 2022. Environmental challenges like droughts and extreme weather events have become significant obstacles to stable milk yields, impacting forage quality and availability, and straining production budgets. Rising production costs have hindered farmers’ ability to invest in essential technologies, and labor shortages continue to impede dairy operations. Trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts are causing uncertainty and hindering global market competitiveness for U.S. dairy exports. Government intervention and support are needed to stabilize the industry.

Dairy Market Faces Scarcity and Rising Costs: Insights from the T.C. Jacoby Weekly Report (May 24, 2024)

Facing rising costs and scarcity, dairy producers struggle to meet market demands. How will these challenges impact milk production and prices? Discover insights here.

The dairy market faces significant challenges and economic pressures. Milk scarcity is evident due to a limited supply of heifers and diseases like avian influenza. Rising production costs are making it challenging for dairy producers to sustain operations. To provide a comprehensive understanding of these dynamics, including fluctuating milk prices, production trends, and the broader impacts on the global dairy industry, we refer to the highly respected T.C. Jacoby Weekly Market Report.

ProductCurrent Price ($/cwt)Price Change (Weekly)Year-Over-Year Change
Class III Milk$19.88– $1.58+10%
Class IV Milk$20.57 – $22.47+ $0.20 – $0.30+12%
Whole Milk Powder$1.27/lb+2.9%-5%
Skim Milk Powder$1.27/lb+3.5%+8%
Butter$3.1225/lb+5.25¢+15%

Mounting Milk Demand Strains Dairy Producers Amidst High Costs and Health Challenges 

The demand for milk and dairy products is surging, but dairy producers face significant hurdles in ramping up milk production. The financial incentive, which refers to the potential for increased profits, is clear, with Class III milk prices near $20 per cwt. However, the scarcity and high cost of replacement heifers are significant obstacles. At the recent Pipestone, Minnesota auction, top-quality springers fetched $2,550 to $2,900 per head, reflecting the hefty investments producers are willing to make. 

Health crises like avian influenza, particularly in Idaho and the Great Lakes states, have had a significant impact on the dairy industry. Producers have had to keep lower-end milk cows in the herd longer to sustain output, even as slaughter volumes have dipped since Class III prices rose above $19 in early May. This situation underscores the severity of the disease outbreak and its implications for the dairy market. 

The USDA’s revisions to March milk production and cow numbers paint a complex picture. While cow numbers briefly rebounded in March, the decline in April highlights ongoing challenges from herd dispersals and animal health issues. The national dairy herd was 9.34 million head in April, down 74,000 from last year, with the Southwest seeing suppressed milk output and modest growth in the Midwest. These factors have contributed to the current state of the dairy market, and understanding them is crucial for dairy producers and industry stakeholders. 

Dairy producers are not just weathering these pressures, but also adapting to fluctuating global market demands, especially from China. Despite the obstacles, they are striving to meet the growing demand for milk and dairy products, demonstrating their resilience in an unpredictable production environment. 

The Scarcity of Heifers: A Formidable Obstacle for Dairy Producers Amid Rising Costs

The scarcity of heifers has become a significant obstacle for dairy producers, driven by dwindling supply and rising acquisition costs. This was evident at last week’s auction in Pipestone, Minnesota, where top springers ranged from $2,550 to $2,900 per head. With Class III milk prices near $20 per cwt., many producers are compelled to pay these high prices to keep their barns full. 

While advantageous, high-Class III milk prices also contribute to the problem. They encourage producers to retain lower-end milk cows longer, potentially impacting national milk yields. Additionally, these prices have led to a further decline in cull rates in early May, underscoring the market’s scarcity and high demand for heifers.

Strategic Herd Adjustments: Balancing Production Levels at the Expense of National Yield Averages 

Dairy producers are not just adjusting their herd management practices, they are doing so strategically amidst surging demand and escalating costs. They are retaining lower-end milk cows longer, a crucial step in maintaining production levels, even though this could potentially suppress national average milk yields. This approach underscores their ability to navigate high heifer costs and disease outbreaks, highlighting their strategic acumen in the face of complex challenges.

Market Dynamics, Health Crises, and Their Impact on Slaughter Volumes and Cull Rates

The current market dynamics, which include factors such as fluctuating milk prices, disease outbreaks, and global trade policies, have significantly influenced slaughter volumes and cull rates, presenting a complex scenario for dairy producers. Slaughter volumes have declined since September, and the trend has intensified in May as Class III milk prices surged past $19 per cwt., leading to even sharper drops in cull rates. 

Avian influenza has further complicated critical milk-producing regions like Idaho and the Great Lakes states. Producers must cull portions of their herds post-infection, boosting cull rates and straining milk production capacity in these critical areas. 

Farmers are retaining lower-end milk cows, which refers to cows that are less productive or have health issues, and deferring culling to maintain herd sizes. This strategy is likely to impact national average milk yields negatively. The economic drive to keep barns full and health challenges reducing herd sizes highlight the delicate balance between market forces and health crises shaping the dairy industry.

Mixed Trends in Milk Production Amidst USDA Revisions and Regional Disparities 

Milk production trends are not straightforward. USDA revisions indicate that while April’s milk output was slightly below last year’s levels at -0.4%, March had a smaller decline than first reported. Cow numbers bounced back in March but dipped again in April, with the herd at 9.34 million head, 74,000 fewer than in April 2023. Regional differences are apparent, with the Southwest facing constraints from dairy dispersals and avian influenza, while the Midwest saw modest growth. Overall, the drop in cow numbers and ongoing health issues are exerting pressure on national milk production, illustrating the intricate nature of the market dynamics.

Wild Swings in Futures Prices Reflect Persistent Market Volatility

Milk and dairy product futures experienced notable volatility this week. By week’s end, nearby Class III futures had declined significantly but remained higher than the past 18 months. The June contract closed at $19.88 per cwt., down $1.58 from last Friday’s peak. Deferred Class III futures showed little change overall. 

In contrast, Class IV futures added 20ȼ to 30ȼ, ranging from $20.57 in May to $22.47 in November, indicating a more stable, upward trend. These price movements reflect the ongoing uncertainty and dynamic conditions in the dairy markets, which include factors such as global trade policies, weather conditions, and disease outbreaks, all of which can significantly impact dairy prices and production.

This Week’s International Market Dynamics Reveal a Mixed Yet Optimistic Scenario for Milk and Dairy Products 

This week’s international market dynamics reveal a mixed yet optimistic scenario for milk and dairy products. The latest Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auction showed surging prices for whole and skim milk powder, with 2.9% and 3.5% increases, respectively. However, China’s absence as a major buyer remains a significant factor. 

China’s reduced dairy imports continue to challenge the global dairy trade. Imports of milk powder and whey are down sharply compared to last year, marking the slowest start to Chinese SMP imports since 2018. This trend impacts the market, which has been hoping for a rebound in China’s import activity to drive up prices. 

Chinese consumers increasingly turn to domestic dairy products, supported by USDA analysts in Beijing, who project a 7% annual growth in Chinese milk production from 2020 through 2023, with 1.3% additional growth expected in 2024. This rise in domestic production has curbed China’s demand for imported milk powder, prompting dairy exporters to seek new markets. 

Nonetheless, other global buyers’ increased activity at the GDT auction kept prices buoyant, reflecting solid demand. This engaged participation could stabilize prices despite China’s lagging imports. These evolving dynamics will be critical as the industry navigates the complexities of international trade and production capacities.

China’s Dairy Market: A Paradigm Shift Towards Domestic Production Amidst Declining Import Volumes

The Chinese dairy market is undergoing notable shifts. Import volumes of milk powder and whey are down, lagging significantly behind last year. Specifically, skim milk powder (SMP) imports through April hit a low not seen since 2018, signaling a drop in demand for foreign dairy products. 

This decline contrasts with a surge in domestic production. USDA analysts in Beijing report that Chinese milk output grew by about 7% annually from 2020 to 2023, with expectations of another 1.3% increase in 2024. This rapid expansion highlights a strategic move by Chinese consumers toward domestically sourced dairy, reshaping local and global dairy markets.

Spot Market Highlights: NDM Climbs Amid Supply Anxieties, Whey Stumbles on Ample Inventories, Butter Soars on Robust Demand

This week, the CME spot market recorded significant price movements for nonfat dry milk (NDM), whey powder, and butter. NDM prices rose by a penny, reaching $1.175 per pound, the highest in nearly three months, driven by concerns over milk supplies for Class III milk volumes expected later in the spring and summer. 

On the other hand, spot whey powder declined by 1.5 cents, settling at 40 cents per pound. This drop reflects high U.S. inventories amid slow export demand, particularly from China. Persistent sluggishness in Chinese whey imports keeps stockpiles ample, exerting downward pressure on prices. 

Butter prices continued their impressive climb, rising by 5.25 cents to a record-setting $3.1225 per pound. This surge is fueled by robust demand and relatively inexpensive cream that keeps churns active. Yet, a recent increase of 44 million pounds in butter inventories from March to April may stabilize prices as buyers gain confidence in ample future supplies. Cold storage held 361 million pounds of butter at the end of last month, a 9% increase from the previous year. 

In summary, while NDM prices rise amidst supply anxieties, whey powder prices fall due to substantial inventories and slow export demand. Butter surges on high demand and plentiful cream, though growing inventories may stabilize prices. These trends highlight the intricate balance of supply, demand, and market sentiment in the dairy sector.

Cheese Markets Experience Notable Price Adjustments Amid Robust Domestic Demand and International Trade Dynamics

The cheese markets saw a sharp decline from last week’s highs. CME spot Cheddar barrels dropped 14.5ȼ to a still elevated $1.98 per pound, while Cheddar blocks fell 7.25ȼ to $1.87 per pound. Despite this, domestic cheese demand is rising, driven by retailers making cheese more affordable. 

On the international front, cheese imported months ago is shipping out, reducing inventory levels. By the end of April, stocks were at 1.46 billion pounds, down 0.6% from last year. This decrease had briefly pushed prices above $2.00 per pound. Still, with falling global orders, the market is finding a better balance between supply and demand.

The Bottom Line

This week’s T.C. Jacoby Market Report unveils a challenging terrain for dairy producers. Strategic herd adjustments are necessary to face surging heifer costs and avian influenza. Market volatility persists, affecting Class III and IV futures. Internationally, China’s shift toward domestic dairy and reduced imports marks a notable change, impacting global markets. Domestically, rising cheese demand and high butter prices offer some respite. Staying attuned to these trends is essential for making informed decisions and navigating the dairy market’s complexities.

Key Takeaways:

  • The demand for milk is extremely high, but the expansion of production is hindered by the scarcity and high cost of heifers.
  • Slaughter volumes have decreased significantly since September, further dropping in early May when Class III milk prices increased.
  • Milk output in April was 0.4% lower than the previous year, with USDA revising March estimates to show a brief rebound in cow numbers before a decline in April.
  • Futures prices for both Class III and Class IV milk remain volatile, with notable fluctuations observed throughout the week.
  • Internationally, milk and dairy product prices are generally up, but global cheese values remain flat, and China’s buying activity has yet to recover to previous levels.
  • On the domestic front, NDM prices are rising amid concerns about milk supply, while whey prices have dipped due to ample inventories.
  • Butter prices continue to soar, reaching record highs for this time of year, while cheese prices have adjusted downward after a recent peak.
  • A significant rally in wheat futures has influenced corn and soybean markets, reflecting broader agricultural trends.


Summary: The dairy market is grappling with economic challenges, including milk scarcity due to a limited supply of heifers and diseases like avian influenza. Rising production costs are making it difficult for dairy producers to sustain operations. The demand for milk and dairy products is surging, but producers face significant hurdles in ramping up milk production. Financial incentives like increased profits are clear, but the scarcity and high cost of replacement heifers are significant obstacles. Health crises like avian influenza have forced producers to keep lower-end milk cows in the herd longer to sustain output. The USDA’s revisions to March milk production and cow numbers reveal a complex picture, with cow numbers briefly rebounding in March but declining in April. Despite these challenges, dairy producers are adapting to fluctuating global market demands, particularly from China. The scarcity of heifers and high-Class III milk prices encourage producers to retain lower-end milk cows longer, potentially impacting national milk yields. The latest Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auction showed surging prices for whole and skim milk powder, but China’s absence as a major buyer remains a significant factor.

Global Dairy Trade Experiences a Noteworthy 1.8% Rise: Insights from Event 355

Discover the latest insights from Global Dairy Trade Event 355, where the GDT Price Index rose by a significant 1.8%. Curious about what this means for the dairy industry? Dive in to find out.

If you’re keeping an eagle eye on the global dairy trade, we’ve got some fresh figures to share with you straight from Fonterra. Their latest price quotes reveal a mixed bag of increases and decreases across the various dairy indices. Let’s dive right into the creamy details. 

AMF Index saw a moderate increase of 1.2%, bringing the average price to US$7,124/MT (€6,611/MT).

The butter-lovers will be pleased, as the Butter Index went up by 2.1% and has an average price of US$6,593/MT (€6,118/MT).

For those monitoring the BMP Index, there was an increase of 1.7%, with the average price now standing at US$2,545/MT (€2,362/MT).

An exciting climb was seen in the Ched Index, going up by a robust 8.0%, hence pushing the average price to US$4,257/MT (€3,950/MT).

Unfortunately, the LAC Index has seen a slight dip of 1.3%, bringing its average price down to US$739/MT (€686/MT).

Cheese enthusiasts rejoice: the Mozz Index has risen by 2.3%, settling the average price at US$3,840/MT (€3,564/MT).

A marginal rise occurred in the SMP Index by 0.4%, with an average price of US$2,551/MT (€2,367/MT).

Lastly, the WMP Index is up by 2.4%, boasting an average price of US$3,350/MT (€3,109/MT).

Remember, these market shifts represent the pulsating, changing face of the global dairy trade. Keep this information at hand as you navigate your way in this ever-evolving market.

Summary: Fonterra’s latest price quotes show a mixed trend across various dairy indices. The AMF Index saw a moderate increase of 1.2%, bringing the average price to US$7,124/MT (€6,611/MT). The Butter Index increased by 2.1%, reaching an average price of US$6,593/MT (€6,118/MT). The BMP Index saw a 1.7% increase, reaching US$2,545/MT (€2,362/MT). The Ched Index saw an 8.0% increase, reaching US$4,257/MT (€3,950/MT). The LAC Index saw a slight dip of 1.3%, bringing its average price down to US$739/MT (€686/MT). The Mozz Index rose by 2.3%, reaching an average price of US$3,840/MT (€3,564/MT). The SMP Index saw a marginal rise of 0.4%, while the WMP Index rose by 2.4%. These market shifts represent the ever-changing face of the global dairy trade.

March Dairy Production Report: US Cheese, Butter, and Frozen Dairy Products See Notable Increase

Discover how US dairy production fared in March. Did your favorite cheese see a production boost? Uncover the latest stats on cheese, butter, and frozen dairy products.

Here’s some good news for you! March has proven to be a bountiful month for dairy products with most of them witnessing a surge in production. According to the National Ag Statistics Service, total cheese output showed a delightful jump, rising by 7.6% over February and slightly above the production figures from March of 2023 by one-tenth of a percent. 

“Italian style cheese production was up 8.6% from February, putting out an impressive 518 million pounds, which is 4.4% more than a year ago. American style cheese production showed a 10% increase over February, although it was 2.9% below the past year’s March production figures, resulting in 491 million pounds.”

Butter saw a respectable rise of 5.5% from February and a 1.4% increase from a year ago with a whopping 209 million pounds. A special mention goes to the dairy farmers in Wisconsin, who topped the nation in Italian-type cheese production, churning out 145.4 million pounds in March alone. They were closely trailed by their counterparts from California. However, California outperformed in producing the most Mozzarella cheese, with a sizable 134 million pounds. 

 Wisconsin continued to rule the roost in Cheddar cheese production, accounting for more than 60.4 million pounds in March. Compared to last year, dry whey production rose by an encouraging 3.4%, whey protein concentrate production was up 2.6%, and lactose production also notched up slightly. 

 The production of frozen dairy products was predominantly up in March, with hard ice cream production rising 1.4% to deliver 66.1 million gallons. Sherbet production also swelled 1.3%, resulting in 1.88 million gallons while Frozen yogurt rose marginally by a tenth of a percent to reach 3.71 million gallons. However, low-fat ice cream production witnessed a slump, dropping 12.8% to 37.7 million gallons. 

Summary: March saw a significant increase in dairy product production, with total cheese output rising by 7.6% compared to February. Italian-style cheese production increased by 8.6%, while American-style cheese production increased by 10%. Butter production also saw a rise of 5.5% and 1.4% from February. Wisconsin dairy farmers topped the nation in Italian-type cheese production, while California outperformed in Mozzarella cheese production. Wisconsin continued to dominate in Cheddar cheese production, accounting for over 60.4 million pounds. Frozen dairy product production also increased, with hard ice cream production rising 1.4% and frozen yogurt reaching 3.71 million gallons.

Stabilizing Supply Propels European Milk Prices

Discover how stabilizing supply is driving up European milk prices. Will this trend continue? Dive into our insightful analysis to find out more.

With a fresh spring in their step, nearly all European dairy companies offered a higher payout to their suppliers in March, compared to the colder month of February. The wave of change swept across the continent lifting the average European advance milk prices to an impressive 44.47 Euros per 100 kg in the month of March, offering a gainful increase of 0.39 Euros against the preceding month. This eye-opening detail is illuminated from the international milk price comparison conducted jointly by EDF and ZuivelNL, featuring sixteen heavyweight European dairy companies. 

Compared to 2023, milk prices have taken a dip by 3.63 euros or a substantial 7.5 percent in March

This decrease, however, did not stand in the way of some notable highs! With a robust plus of 1.50 Euros, it was the German dairy giant Hochwald that signed off on the highest milk price increase in March. On the flip side, the French Sodiaal and the British Saputo Dairy UK were the only members of this stellar line up to lower their milk price. Interested in the full milk price comparison for March 2024? If so, click here! 

Now for the nitty-gritty! These prices are applicable to an average supply of 1 million kg of milk boasting 4.2% of fat and 3.4% of protein. Such supply should have a germ count of up to 24,999 and a cell number up to 249,999. It’s also worth noting that these prices are quoted exclusive of VAT. 

On a different note, the European milk supply landscape underwent a noteworthy change in its dynamics. For the first time after a few turbulent months, the European milk supply found its footing and became stable in February, this factoring in the leap year correction. The French dairy market registered a small, yet encouraging increase in its milk supply, while Germany held its ground. Poland, on the other hand, continued to display powerful growth. 

Ireland, however, followed a different track with a 16 percent drop in milk supply in February

The same downward trend was also observed in the Netherlands, where the milk supply struggled to pick up the pace. From the fall period of September, the country’s milk supply has followed a downward trajectory. This trend was maintained in March, as dairy intake dipped by 1.3 percent. Industry insider ZuivelNL attributes this slump to the unfortunate outbreak of the Bluetongue virus and the ongoing grading of the derogation, which in turn led to farmers keeping fewer cows.

Summary: In March, European dairy companies offered higher payouts to their suppliers, with the average European advance milk prices reaching 44.47 Euros per 100 kg. This increase of 0.39 Euros compared to February was revealed in an international milk price comparison conducted by EDF and ZuivelNL. Milk prices have dropped by 7.5% compared to 2023, but some notable highs were recorded, such as the 1.50 Euro increase by German dairy giant Hochwald. French Sodiaal and British Saputo Dairy UK were the only dairy companies to lower their milk prices. The European milk supply landscape experienced a significant change in dynamics, with the French dairy market experiencing a small increase in its milk supply, while Germany held its ground. Poland continued to show growth. However, Ireland experienced a 16% drop in milk supply in February, while the Netherlands experienced a downward trend from September. Industry insider ZuivelNL attributes this slump to the outbreak of the Bluetongue virus and the ongoing grading of derogation, leading to farmers keeping fewer cows. The prices are applicable to an average supply of 1 million kg of milk with 4.2% fat and 3.4% protein, and are quoted exclusive of VAT.

Chicago’s Dairy Market in Flux: A Look at Rising Milk Futures and Dairy Prices

Discover why milk futures and dairy prices are soaring on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Uncover the factors driving this trend in our latest analysis.

On a bright and busy Friday, milk futures and cash dairy prices took a welcome climb at the bustling Chicago Mercantile Exchange. June Class III milk responded positively, rallying up $0.31 to reach a solid $19.21. Not to be outdone, July followed suit with a buoyant $0.21 increase, settling at a comfortable $19.26. 

It wasn’t just the heart of summer enjoying this boost. August also benefitted from this positive trend, inching upwards by $0.10 to stand at $19.29. Meanwhile, September milk futures matched August’s rise, increasing by $0.05 to $19.29.

Notably, the contracts set for October through December ranged from rising four cents in October and December to an even higher ten-cent rise in November.

But it wasn’t all about the milk. Dry whey was up $0.0050 at $0.3950. In this bustling market, an impressive ten sales were recorded, ranging from $0.3950 to $0.40. Elsewhere, our ever-popular forty-pound cheese blocks enjoyed a minor uptick of $0.0025 to close at $1.79. Although only one sale was recorded, it was at an enviable $1.7875. 

As for the cheese barrels, they remained stable at $1.88. However, the market came alive as one sale was recorded at that price. Butter, on the other hand, added $0.0175 to its value, closing at an eye-catching $3.0750. Here, an impressive thirteen sales were recorded, the prices ranging from $3.0675 to $2.0950.

Nonfat dry milk, albeit experiencing a slight decline of $0.0050 to touch base at $1.11, still recorded two sales at $1.11 and $1.1150 respectively. 

All in all, it was a day of wins for milk futures and cash dairy prices. Only time will tell how this upward trend will play out in the coming days.

Summary: On Friday, milk futures and cash dairy prices experienced a positive trend at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. June Class III milk rose $0.31 to $19.21, while July saw a $0.21 increase to $19.26. August also saw a $0.10 increase to $19.29, while September milk futures matched August’s rise. Contracts for October through December ranged from four cents in October and December to an even higher ten-cent rise in November. Dry whey increased $0.0050 to $0.3950, with ten sales recorded. Cheese blocks saw a minor uptick of $0.0025 to close at $1.79, while cheese barrels remained stable at $1.88. Butter added $0.0175 to its value, closing at $3.0750, with thirteen sales recorded. Nonfat dry milk experienced a slight decline of $0.0050 to touch base at $1.11, but still recorded two sales at $1.11 and $1.1150. Overall, it was a day of wins for milk futures and cash dairy prices.

Rabobank Forecasts Northwest Europe’s Milk Production to Plunge by 20%

Discover how Rabobank’s forecast of a 20% drop in Northwest Europe’s milk production could impact the dairy industry. Will your morning coffee be affected?

Wake up to the reality of a significant milk supply reduction in Northwest Europe over the next decade. According to a report by Rabobank, the dairy processing industry may need to grapple with a possible 13 to 20 percent reduction in milk supply. This presents an undeniable call for an evident revamp of existing strategies. 

What’s behind this downward shift? There are several contributing factors anticipated. Milk production in Denmark, Germany, Belgium, and the Netherlands is expected to structurally decrease due to stringent margins, environmental regulations, and labour market challenges. Compounded with this, the region is also likely to face the impacts of climate change, leading to weather extremes.

“Puch-boll companies should focus on high-quality products, such as high-quality protein ingredients, consumer branded items, and cheese,” says Richard Scheper, a Dairy Analyst at Rabobank.

Rabobank’s researchers have plotted two potential scenarios for the period leading up to 2035. The first anticipates a 13 percent reduction in milk supply, while the second, a drastic 20 percent decline. Whichever comes to pass, both outlooks signal an impending hit to cooperatives that will result in substantial income losses. 

So, what does this mean for the dairy processing factories? They’re staring at a steep slope, because the sharp decline will provoke overcapacity issues. In light of this, Rabobank suggests companies concentrate on high-quality products. Scheper advises firms to be proactive and prepare for any imminent financial challenges

One way to navigate through these tough waters? Consolidating milk processing capacity. This strategic shift could help smoothen out the impacts of the changing market landscape and the associated declining milk volumes.

Summary: The dairy processing industry in Northwest Europe is facing a 13 to 20 percent reduction in milk supply over the next ten years, according to a report by Rabobank. The decline is expected to be structurally impacted by tight margins, environmental measures, labor market challenges, and weather extremes. Two scenarios for the period up to 2035 have been calculated, with one scenario involving a 13% reduction and the other a 20% reduction. These scenarios will result in substantial income losses, primarily impacting cooperatives. Overcapacity and consolidation will be a major challenge for processing dairy factories, as overcapacity will arise. Dairy companies need to act proactively to prevent drastic changes and prepare for financial challenges, such as consolidating milk processing capacity.

Milk Futures Rise at Chicago Mercantile Exchange Amid Dollar Dip and Butter-Buying Spree

Discover why milk futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange soared. Could a lower dollar and a butter-buying frenzy be the key drivers? Dive in to find out.

Brace yourself for some positively uplifting news from the financial sector. Milk futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange mostly ended in positive territory this past Thursday, primarily steered by a lower dollar and an unexpected butter-buying spree in the cash market. This trend was marked across several futures contracts, painting a promising picture for the dairy market

Here’s a deeper look into the specifics: 

  • May Class III milk was slightly down, losing a penny to settle at $18.34.
  • The value of June futures sprung up by 36 cents, ending at $18.90.
  • July futures also rose, going up 23 cents to sit at $19.06.
  • August saw an increase of 27 cents, finishing at $19.17.
  • Futures for the months of September through November were improved as well, with increases ranging from 2 to 15 cents.

“These shifts, while seemingly small, indicate an optimistic trajectory for milk futures amidst fluctuating market conditions. Playing your cards right in this sector could potentially yield promising returns,” explains a seasoned market analyst.

Moreover, there was a notable movement in other dairy-related futures: 

  • Dry whey rose by $0.0150 to cap at $0.3750.
  • The value of blocks stepped up $0.02, to finish at $1.7875.
  • Barrels also experienced growth, going up $0.0250 to land at $1.88. Seven trades were executed in the range of $1.8650 to $1.88 during the day.
  • Butter leaped up $0.0525, with its value now being $3.0575. A total of twenty-three trades were completed ranging from $3.02 to $3.07.
  • A drop was noticed in nonfat dry milk, however, which slid down $0.0075 to stop at $1.1175. Five sales happened during the day, ranging from $1.1125 to $1.1175.

In conclusion, amidst some small setbacks, it’s overall a hopeful picture for different categories in the dairy market.

Summary: Milk futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange ended mostly positive due to a lower dollar and a butter-buying spree on the cash market. Class III milk decreased by a penny, while dry whey increased by $0.0150, blocks by $0.02, barrels by $0.02, and butter by $0.0525. Nonfat dry milk fell by $0.0075.

Unraveling the Dairy Dilemma: Milk Supply Falls Yet Profitability Continues to Evade

Explore the paradox of the dairy industry: why does profitability remain elusive despite a dwindling milk supply? Unravel the dairy dilemma with us.

Spring has firmly arrived, and with it, a flurry of fieldwork commences a fresh season, with milk production at its seasonal peak. You, like many farmers, may be looking forward to June — dairy month — and the arrival of summer with a surge of ice cream demand associated with it. It’s the season that often promises higher milk prices fueled by a stronger demand. Yet, especially in the cheese market, prices have been stubborn, causing the Class III value to remain low and delaying any significant margin recovery. The rest of the year does show signs of milk revenues improving, but brace yourself for a slow recovery that will likely span months, not weeks. 

Globally, milk supply growth appears to continue its struggle, with the first quarter of this year reflecting trends seen in the second half of 2023 marked by weaker year-over-year production from the key exporting regions. As per forecasts by Rabobank, this low supply is expected to persist throughout the summer before volume starts ticking positive through the second half of 2024. 

“After two consecutive quarters of weaker supply, typically, a firmly bullish price response would have materialized. It’s what we saw during the output pullback in 2021 which was followed by record high prices in 2022 in some instances. This time, although milk production is lower, it’s counteracted by sluggish global demand, leaving the supply and demand balance relatively neutral.”

This reduced milk supply is shrugged off by global buyers due to their adequate inventories and ongoing macroeconomic concerns. Although demand signs are promising, it will still take time before prices rise. 

Cheese has primarily been dragging the U.S. market down this year. Starting the year in the $1.40s, both block and barrel cheddar ascended to the upper $1.60s at the CME spot market in February, only to retreat to calendar year lows by mid-March. Mid-April saw prices climbing again, but the supply-demand dynamics prevented any significant cheese price growth. Dry whey also hit a low in March and April, further pulling the Class III price down after showing signs of strength earlier this year. Nonfat dry milk has been maintaining rangebound prices, but Class IV has benefited from a notably firm butter price. 

Despite these factors, achieving dairy farm profitability remains misleading— a frustrating continuation of 2023’s challenges. But there’s reason for optimism too. Rabobank projects slow but steady dairy commodity price gains will materialize in the latter half of this year. Paired with lower expected feed costs, an improved margin outlook will eventually stimulate milk production growth in both the U.S. and other key exporting regions. This year might not set any record price highs, but farmers like you would surely welcome the much-awaited return to profitability.

Summary: Milk production is at its peak, with summer and ice cream demand expected to boost prices. However, cheese prices have been stubborn, causing low Class III values and delaying significant margin recovery. Milk revenues are improving, but a slow recovery is expected. Global milk supply growth is struggling, with weaker year-over-year production from key exporting regions in the first quarter of this year. Rabobank forecasts that this low supply will persist throughout the summer before positive volumes start in the second half of 2024. Global buyers shrug off reduced milk supply due to adequate inventories and ongoing macroeconomic concerns. Demand signs are promising, but it will take time for prices to rise. Rabobank projects slow but steady dairy commodity price gains will materialize in the latter half of this year. Milk production growth in the U.S. and other key exporting regions is expected to stimulate growth.

USDA Reveals Sharp Decline in March 2024 Milk Production Across Top Dairy States

Discover why the USDA reports a significant drop in March 2024 milk production across top dairy states. What’s causing this decline? Find out more.

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has recently shed light on a notable decline in milk production across the major dairy states for the month of March in 2024. Data gathered by the USDA indicates that production in the 24 major dairy states landed at just about 18.8 billion pounds last month, drawing a drop of about nine-tenths of a percent compared to the same period in March 2023.

In March, the average production per cow hit the scales at approximately 2,115 pounds, which was down by nearly three pounds from the same period in the preceding year. Additionally, the number of cattle in these states saw a decrease of about 71,000 head, when compared to the previous year, settling at roughly 8.88 million head. This statistic also signifies a decrease of 7,000 cattle from the preceding month of February.

For the first quarter of 2024, milk production saw a marginal increase of one-tenth of a percent from 2023, reaching a total of 56.9 billion pounds. During this period, the US total milking herd stood at 9.33 million head, reflecting a decrease of 16,000 cattle from the fourth quarter of 2023 and 85,000 fewer cattle compared to the first quarter of 2023.

Despite the overall decrease, California maintained its position as the standout producer, with its 1.7 million head of cattle generating an impressive 3.6 billion pounds of milk. This was closely followed by Wisconsin with its 1.2 million head yielding 2.7 billion pounds. Michigan continued to lead the pack in terms of milk production per cow, with an average yield of 2,350 pounds.

Summary: The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported a significant decline in milk production across major dairy states in March 2024. The average production per cow was around 2,115 pounds, down by nearly three pounds from the previous year. The number of cattle in these states also decreased by 71,000 head from 8.88 million head to 8.88 million head. In the first quarter of 2024, milk production increased by one-tenth of a percent from 2023, reaching 56.9 billion pounds. However, the US total milking herd decreased by 16,000 cattle from the fourth quarter of 2023 and 85,000 fewer cattle compared to the first quarter of 2023. California remained the top producer, with 1.7 million head of cattle generating 3.6 billion pounds of milk. Wisconsin followed closely with 1.2 million head yielding 2.7 billion pounds. Michigan continued to lead the pack in terms of milk production per cow, with an average yield of 2,350 pounds.

Protein Value Falls in April, Causing a Mix in the Pricing of FMMO Milk Classes

Dive into our analysis of April’s FMMO milk class prices. Understand the mixed trends and the impact of falling protein value. Will this affect your dairy business?

As we roll into May, dairy producers can look forward to changes in the Federal Milk Marketing Order (FMMO) prices, with the April 2023 FMMO pooling estimates, uniform prices, and producer price differentials scheduled for release between May 11-14. However, a heads up for the dairy industry – it seems likely the April milk checks could show a bit of a dent. We’re seeing evidence of this in the FMMO milk class prices and notably in the lowest protein component value, which is hitting a 25-year low. But don’t worry – things are looking up for May. 

Let’s delve a little deeper. The FMMO Class II, III, and IV prices announced on May 1 showed some mixed results compared to a month earlier. A decline in the Class III milk price offset small gains for Class I, II, IV milk prices. Now, for those with an eye on milk pooling, you’ll see that a wider Class III-IV price spread is again supporting substantial Class IV depooling incentives. 

For our forward-looking folks, the April 2024 FMMO pooling estimates, uniform prices and producer price differentials (PPDs) will be released on May 11-14, with a summary to be provided on May 15. Be sure to stay updated with Progressive Dairy’s website for the latest news. Let’s get into those April class prices: 

  • At $21.23 per hundredweight (cwt), the April Class II milk price saw an uptick of 11 cents from March and comes out $2.03 more than April 2023. In fact, it’s achieved its highest level since October 2023.
  • Not so good news for the Class III milk price, falling 84 cents from March to a three-month low of $15.50 per cwt. That’s $3.02 less than April 2023.
  • It’s a small gain for the April 2024 Class IV milk price, with a modest increase of just 2 cents from March, putting it at $20.11 per cwt. This is $2.16 more than April 2023, and it’s also the highest since November 2023.

A key factor potentially affecting FMMO pooling is the April 2024 Class IV milk price. It’s currently $4.61 more than the month’s Class III milk price, marking the widest spread since October 2023. Meanwhile, the April 2024 advanced Class I base price stood at $19.18 per cwt, a rise of 38 cents more than in March 2024 and 33 cents more than April a year ago, marking the first year-over year increase since January 2022-23. 

Contributing to the April milk class price calculations, the value of butterfat was up from the previous month, but the protein value declined to a historical low. The butterfat value increased almost a dime from March to about $3.33 per pound. Milk protein, however, fell 29 cents from March, down to just 83.5 cents per pound – the lowest since the FMMO reform began in 2000.

It’s not just protein facing a dip though; the value of nonfat solids was down about 2.5 cents, landing at 97.3 cents per pound, while the value of other solids took a 5 cent tumble, leaving it at 23.7 cents per pound. 

Looking ahead based on FMMO advanced prices and current futures prices, we keep our fingers crossed that the outlook for May milk prices should improve. Already announced, the May 2024 advanced Class I base price is $18.46 per cwt, which is lower by 72 cents from April 2024 and $1.11 less than a year ago, landing it at the lowest since February. On a positive note, trading on May 1 suggests uplift with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Class III milk futures price closing at $18.35 per cwt for May, up a robust $2.85 from the April price. The Class IV milk futures price for May closed at $20.18 per cwt, up by 7 cents from April. If these Class III-IV futures prices hold, the May Class III-IV milk price gap will shrink to $1.83 per cwt. That’s a seven-month low, potentially reducing some incentives for Class IV depooling. 

Summary: Dairy producers can expect changes in the Federal Milk Marketing Order (FMMO) prices in May, with the April 2023 pooling estimates, uniform prices, and producer price differentials scheduled for release between May 11-14. However, it is likely that the April milk checks will show a dent, with evidence of this in the FMMO milk class prices and notably in the lowest protein component value, which is hitting a 25-year low. The April 2024 FMMO pooling estimates, uniform prices, and producer price differentials will be released on May 11-14, with a summary provided on May 15. The April Class II milk price saw an uptick of 11 cents from March, reaching its highest level since October 2023. However, the Class III milk price fell 84 cents from March to a three-month low of $15.50 per cwt, $3.02 less than April 2023. A small gain for the April 2024 Class IV milk price was just 2 cents from March, putting it at $20.11 per cwt, $2.16 more than April 2023 and the highest since November 2023.

Milk Futures Plummet on Chicago Mercantile Exchange amid Rising Feed Costs and Oversold Positions

Discover why milk futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange plummeted. Could rising feed costs and oversold positions be the culprits? Dive in to find out.

In yesterday’s trading session, milk futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange concluded on a down swing, feeling the pinch from rising feed costs and an oversupply of positions. A trend that clearly played out across various classes and products.

For instance, May Class III milk was down 13 cents, closing at $18.25. June didn’t fare any better, 24 cents lower, ending the day at $18.42. July saw a decrease of seven cents to finish at $18.83, while August fell by six cents closing at $18.92. Despite these trends, September through November contracts remained stable or increased marginally, by up to four cents.

However, it wasn’t all doom and gloom across the board. Some products managed to hold their ground or even climb slightly. 

  • Dry whey stayed flat at $0.3750.
  • Blocks had an increase of $0.02 to settle at $1.7675.
  • Barrels stood firm, unchanged at $1.8550.
  • Butter rose by $0.04 to cap off at $3.0050 after seven trades made between $3.00 to $3.0050.
  • Nonfat dry milk experienced a slight growth of $0.0050 to close at $1.1250, with five sales executed at that same price.

This steady movement among certain dairy products suggests a more complex landscape than the general downtrend might indicate. One where ongoing market factors and individual commodities are interacting in unique ways. So, let’s take a closer look at what’s driving these trends and what they could mean for the future.

Summary: Milk futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange experienced a downturn due to rising feed costs and an oversupply of positions. Class III milk closed at $18.25 in May, while June and July saw decreases and increases. August saw a six-cent fall to $18.92. However, contracts from September through November remained stable or slightly increased. Some dairy products managed to hold their ground or climb slightly, such as dry whey at $0.3750, blocks at $1.7675, barrels at $1.8550, butter rising by $0.04 to cap off at $3.0050, and nonfat dry milk experiencing a slight growth of $0.0050 to close at $1.1250. This suggests a more complex landscape, where ongoing market factors and individual commodities interact in unique ways. Understanding the driving factors behind these trends and their implications for the future is crucial.

Milk Futures Surge on Chicago Mercantile Exchange Amidst Mixed Cash Trade Activity

Discover why milk futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange surged on Tuesday amidst mixed cash trade activity. Dive into the details with us.

On Tuesday, there was a notable upturn on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Here’s where it gets interesting – milk futures actually continued to climb higher, even while cash trade settled in mixed activity. 

  • May Class III Milk: Positioned 2 cents higher at $18.39.
  • June: Climbed even more significantly, 45 cents higher at $18.70.
  • July: Followed June’s growth trend, up 45 cents at $18.87.
  • August: Added 37 cents, reaching $18.94.
  • September through November contracts: These ranged between eight to 25 cents higher.

In other interesting news, dry whey remained unchanged at $0.3750, while ‘blocks’ dipped slightly by $0.0025 to $1.7475. It’s worth noting that there was a single transaction made at that price. Conversely, ‘barrels’ rose by $0.0825 to arrive at $1.8550, with one notable sale made at $1.8350. 

Butter managed to hold steady at $2.9650. Perhaps the crowning development, though, was nonfat dry milk, which pushed upwards by $0.01 to close the day at $1.12. 

The fluctuating figures for the different months and products not only highlight the changes in the market but also hint towards future trends. Knowledge of this multifaceted landscape is crucial in grasping the future of commodities trading.

Summary: Milk futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange rose on Tuesday, with Class III milk up 2 cents to $18.39. Cash trade settled in mixed activity, with contracts from September through November increasing eight to 25 cents. Dry whey remained unchanged, while blocks and barrels rose. Butter remained unchanged and nonfat dry milk increased $0.01 at $1.12.

March Dairy Report: Steady Feedstuff and Milk Prices Lead to No Trigger in Risk Management Payments

In March, feedstuff and milk prices held steady, leading to a Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) margin of $9.65 per hundredweight. This was a groundbreaking occurrence; it was the first time since December 2022 that these prices did not trigger a payment through the dairy risk management program. 

The United States Department of Agriculture‘s National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA NASS) released its agricultural prices report on April 30, which included feed costs used to calculate these crucial DMC program margins and indemnity payments. We saw consistent feedstuff prices and a slight uplift in the all-milk price, which brought the average milk income margin to $9.65 per hundredweight. 

March 2024 DMC Margin Factors

Let’s take a quick glance at the March 2024 Dairy Margin Coverage program margin factors, compared to the previous month: 

  • Alfalfa Hay: $271 per ton, a decrease of $7 per ton
  • Corn: $4.36 per bushel, no change from February’s price
  • Soybean Meal: $362.17 per ton, down by $1.46
  • Total Feed Costs: $11.05
  • Milk Price: $20.70
  • Margin Above Feed Cost: $9.65

Source: USDA Farm Service Agency, National Ag Statistics Service and Ag Marketing Service – April 30, 2024 

All-Milk Price: A Minor Increase 

In March 2024, the announced U.S. average all-milk price was $20.70. Even though it was a dime more than the previous month, it was 30 cents lower than March of the previous year. That being said, a majority of the 24 major dairy states experienced a modest increase in milk prices, with several states seeing an improvement of 50 cents or less. Only two states, Georgia and Virginia, recorded increases of $1 or more while Idaho and Pennsylvania were the ones to witness a decrease in their milk checks from the previous month. 

Feed Prices Held Steady 

Notably, the national average costs for major feedstuffs remained relatively unchanged from February in the three categories used to calculate feed costs. These categories include corn, soybean meal, and dairy-quality alfalfa hay. 

Calculated Feed Cost Elements: 

“The DMC feed cost for each month is calculated by summing three numbers: (1) the corn price per bushel times 1.0728; (2) the soybean meal price per ton times 0.00735; (3) the alfalfa hay price per ton times 0.0137.”

2024 Enrollment Closed, Margin Forecasts for Remainder of Year 

As of April 29, enrollment for the 2024 DMC program closed. The past year witnessed the risk management program being used by 17,120 dairy operations. In total, these farms received nearly $1.3 billion in payments, averaging $75,654 per operation. As we look to the remainder of this year, the DMC forecast doesn’t anticipate margins below the $9.50 per hundredweight threshold, although markets do fluctuate. Stay tuned; the actual margin for April will be announced on May 31st. 

US Dairy Farmers’ Revenue and Expenditure Rise Slightly in March

Explore our in-depth analysis on the slight rise in revenue and expenditure for US dairy farmers in March. Curious about the factors behind this trend? Dive in now.

Sometimes the details really do matter, and that’s particularly true in the world of dairy farming. Here’s some insight that’s fresh off the farm: U.S. dairy farmers found themselves a little bit better off in March than they were in February. It’s mostly a good news scenario, with just a few hitches thrown in. 

According to the USDA, the index of prices received by farmers was up 1.5%. This was mostly due to some gains across a range of products. Here’s a quick run-down: cattle, hogs, broilers, and lettuce all saw gains, which helped to offset losses in wheat, market eggs, oranges, and strawberries. 

The dairy index for March 2024 was slightly improved too, ending up 0.5% higher than February. Sounds like a win, right? But before we get too excited, it’s worth noting that it was 1.4% lower than in March 2023. The all milk price was at $20.70 per hundredweight, which was an increase of $.10 on the month – but again, it was down $.30 on the year.

Switching gears to what farmers are paying out, the index of prices paid rose 0.6%. This increase was mainly due to higher costs for feeder cattle, feeder pigs, gasoline, and nitrogen. On the bright side, there were some decreases to the costs of hay and forages, complete feeds, LP gas, and concentrates. Every little bit helps, right? 

Overall, it’s a bit of a mixed bag. Year to year, the index of prices received was down 4.8% while the index of prices paid was 1.1% lower. While some farmers continued to see their profits limited by relatively high input prices.

So, as you can see, being a dairy farmer is never simple or straightforward. But in this case, at least it seems that things are slightly on the upswing. Here’s hoping that continues for our hardworking farmers.

Summary: U.S. dairy farmers saw a 1.5% increase in prices in March compared to February, mainly due to gains in cattle, hogs, broilers, and lettuce. However, losses in wheat, market eggs, oranges, and strawberries were offset. The dairy index for March 2024 was slightly higher but 1.4% lower than in March 2023. The all milk price was $20.70 per hundredweight, an increase of $.10 on the month but down $.30 on the year. The index of prices paid rose 0.6% due to higher costs for feeder cattle, feeder pigs, gasoline, and nitrogen. Year-on-year, the index of prices received was down 4.8%, while the index of prices paid was 1.1% lower.

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